Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation
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- Опубліковано 27 сер 2024
- Once again, it is time for some dubious speculation regarding #Bitcoin
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This cycle is shaping up to look a lot like 2024
lol
Just need alt/bitcoin pairs to break down 🤔💯
And the 2nd half is especially looking to look a lot like it
Dubious is the best type of speculation
Wonderful insight 😅
@@Wes-75786 on this channel we like our speculation dubious and our bitcoin dominant
Ben I think we're going to need a video every day until the bull run is over. Thanks!
- Everyone
And it needs to be an hour long, and it needs to be about bitcoin dominance 👍💯
"My personal opinion here is that it's not 2017, it's not 2021, it's not 2013, it's not 2019, it's 2024" Dude has a PhD 😂
Keep it up Ben, love the content!
Let's get Ben to 1M followers! One of the most humble, real and educational crypto persons on UA-cam. Thank you, Ben! Keep up the great work.
Ben could you please do a video about your opinion of the power law?
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If we've already hit the low, then what about USDT.D and the trend line from the beginning? Bitcoin will be going to 80k or so at most before hitting the trend line. All previous runs, USDT.D was relatively at a higher point than now. Seems like USDT.D need to go much higher than this or else no 100k bitcoin.
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Where's it at on the regression charts?
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Slightly undervalued (like -10 to -20%)
I am proud to announce that I stayed up late just to watch Ben’s lecture.
Thanks Ben for the info. Since I started listening to you 3 yrs ago I've dramatically increased my understanding of BTC's price action.
I'd like to know what changed your view on BTC.D peaking late summer to now Q4
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I am confused.
Why are we comparing 2019 to 2024? 2019 was not a halving year and BTC didn't break the previous cycle top. Baseline comparison need to account this two major factors. Only confluence was rate cut that year. Is it that our hypothesis is just based on rate cut event & liquidity injections?
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He explains from the 01:00 minute mark
No comparing wichtig 2019. .🫣!! 2019 was not a Halving year. .!!! ✌️
@@maxim7043 yes but 2019 is a focus in all his videos and draw conclusions to materialize the pattern of 2019 which is absurd just because monetary policy aligns? Only halving years should be taken into account. And the research deems invalid because 2019 didn’t break previous btc top.
@@user-zi6kc9qm8n you are underselling it by saying "just because monetary policy aligns".
It's macroeconomics. It is the strongest and most decisive factor. If a recession is coming (as it often does at the end of these rate-hiking cycles), any other speculation is irrelevant, there are no halving years, no post halving, nothing. There will only be macroeconomics and everything has to comply.
A recession would take its course because it doesn't care about the BTC cycle.
Unemployment, if you check it out, keeps ticking upwards. If it keeps going up because of QT and high rates, a recession will be triggered.
Not S&P, not NASDAQ, not BTC or any other asset will have a say in this. They will all comply and cool-off.
You are correct that 2019 did not see an all-time high and 2024 did. That is indeed a difference that could signal they might be different.
But looking at historical data, it is far more likely that a recession is triggered than not. You can check the "Federal Funds Effective Rate" chart on the FRED website.
So this is the reason Ben keeps referencing 2019.
Because their macroeconomics align, which is the most decisive factor of all. If something occurs at the macro level, everything aligns to it.
For the sake of the argument, with all the uncertainty going up around the world, imagine WW3 starts. Do you believe BTC cycles will have a stronger say than that?
In the same sense, FED policy trumps BTC cycles.
❤❤❤❤ more dubious speculation!
With a lot of respect for your work all these years: I can’t get my head around why you approach the hypothesis of a break in the 4-year cycle by looking at all manner of details and patterns in charts when you average them or stretch them out a little. I would say this is not seeing the forest through the trees. A BIG hypothesis needs BIG/fundamental arguments.
You are classifying the 4-year cycle of BTC as "BIG hypothesis with BIG fundamentals/arguments".
You should also take into account macroeconomics. The reason for which he compares with 2019 is because their macroeconomics align. In the sense of an interest rate hiking cycle.
This cycle occurs at macro level, therefore it impacts everything below it.
BTC 4 year-cycle (still a theory, btw, but with solid potential of being a pattern looking at historical data) is not going to trump macroeconomics.
BTC will not ignore a recession triggered by high rates + QT.
It's the other way around: a recession will ignore any other pattern other than itself (which would be an asset price cool-off due to high unemployment triggered by the FED policy in order to combat inflation).
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Hey Ben. Can you take a look at the bitcoin and total market cap accounting for the money supply. I think would be an interesting chart 😁
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There's no reason it needs to be a "summer lull"... a lull is definitely coming. But not today sir.
50k is coming
6:15-6:24 props! First time i've heard you say that.
It's simply Wyckoff
SO basically, we could see a cycle peak in late 2024 (halving year) instead of late 2025 (post halving year). I wouldn't mind that.
how did you come up with the BMSB?
✔️The BMSB *“bull market support band”* (aka. bear market resistance band) is an indicator that consists of the *20-week SMA* and the *21-week EMA.*
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Thanks Ben!
I've got a feeling it's 2024
Whatever comes, I’m keep buying.
Will retire at the age of 50 in 2035
When my friends asked me if now is a good time to buy bitcoin I tell them the answer to the question is as clear as mud and refer them to speculation
Ben, instead of comparing with when the rate cuts were actully cut, try to take a look on the 10Y or even the 2Y bonds. The markets usually responds to the future rates
Bitcoin Dubious Speculation Videos allay my anxiety amidst price volatility & turbulence....
Hey Ben how are you? How do you make a chart in trading view factoring in M2/inflation added to the BTC data?
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Your commentary and analysis is great love your work Ben 👊 ❤
Tks from Brazil
Thanks 👍
We can go up or down
Excellent content. Thank you for all you do 🙏🏻
Without overthinking, it feels like a normal halving year.
Hi ! Are you going to bring back "Bitcoin: Whale Games" ?
I think the peak in 2024 doesn't make sense for 1 main reason. The herd have not yet came back into crypto. That happens once QE starts. So to me, 2024 is 2024, whether up or down. But 2025 should play out like every post halving year.
Did I hear right? In your opinion it’s 2024? Just checked my calendar. You are correct sir. 😉
Excellent takes as always. Thank you Boss
Congratulations gentlemen
We still haven't touched the 100 week EMA. It is coming.....
Hola!
I'm always in for some dubious speculation 😎
45k coming Mark my words
Dubious episode naming 😴🛌
Past my bedtime, well worth, gracias señor Ben
It will be like 2018 👍🏼
Is 2019 in the room with you right now?
If it goes up, it goes up; if it goes down, it goes down. Can go either way.
Durably dubious undoubtedly
Its not 2013. Its not 2017. Its not 2021. Guess what, its 2024 😎
the best !
You do them evey other week😅
I want my shorts stop the dubious speculation
BTC will just melt up to 71k and spend time there around October. Then it goes up.
Another Bitcoin Dominance video disguised as dubious speculation 🤣
2019 ain’t happening imo. I think we see new bitcoin high and a full altseason before 2024 ends.
New high isn't too bold of a prediction, that's like 15% gain from here
I think the same. .⚘️
Dang, too many comments like this, top is in I guess.
First again!
First
I did the same. Bitcoin heavy since 2022 and it's been making profit right now. NFA
LFG!!!!
first view lfggg
“Dubious” is a weird word.