Bitcoin: Pi Cycle Top Indicator
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- Опубліковано 11 вер 2024
- The Pi Cycle Top indicator was created by Philip Swift back in 2019 to predict Bitcoin's top within three days. It has gained great popularity when it also predicted Bitcoin's local top within three days back in April 2021. The indicator signals a top whenever the 111 DMA crosses above the 350 DMA * 2, these crossovers are shown as white dotted lines in the chart. The name "Pi Cycle Top" comes from the fact that the fraction 350/111 is as close as one can get to Pi (3.1415...) when dividing the integer 350 by another integer.
The Pi Cycle Bottom indicator was created by Doncic, who was inspired by Philip Swift's Pi Cycle Top indicator. This indicator was therefore created at a later time, around June of 2021 and by a different author. The indicator signals a bottom whenever the 150D EMA crosses below the 471D SMA * 0.745, these crossovers are shown as white dotted lines in the chart. The name "Pi Cycle Bottom" comes from the fact that the fraction 150 * Pi (3.1415...) is about 471. One could argue that because of the increased arbitrariness of moving average types and numbers (such as the .745 multiplication), that this indicator should be treated differently from the pi cycle top indicator.
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I’m a data scientist, I really appreciate that you talk based on the data and not based on nonesense like other UA-camrs
I'm not a data scientist. I also really appreciate that he talks based on the data and not based on nonsense like other UA-camrs.
FACTS
When social interest peaks, I want Ben to put out every Top indicator video there is
Thanks Ben. In April 2021 when it crossed it was generally ignored by masses as we were all convinced that btc was going to 100k.
Haha remember the obnoxious ones calling for a $300K BTC? 😅
True, I was one of them 😆
@@HeavyDutyCharlieand they’ll do it again
@@willisgaines6882 all good. They can be delusional all they want. I follow the data and charts and that’s all I could ask for. To each their own for those out there.
I appreciate you for making such great videos. May suggest if you could summarize/give conclusion at end of the video that will help lot of people to understand. Thanks
You must be new here 😂
@@markdesign1354 yes he is LOL.. Ben will prob give him another video for 20 minutes about that lol
@@markdesign1354😂😂😂
So you do not need to watch the whole video?
Just watch the video bro ...
Hi Ben, The low PI level, recorded at just 1 in early 2021, can likely be attributed to the fact that it was the first of two peaks that year. Had this initial peak not occurred, allowing only the October/November peak to take place, I believe the PI cycle might have reached higher levels. I bring this up because, looking ahead to 2024-2025, it seems we are taking more time to develop the bull run. This could potentially allow the PI cycle to achieve its level 1 target. In my view, it’s gearing up to work once again. You’re absolutely right, though-once we hit the 0.85 mark, and especially as we approach 0.9, it will be crucial to monitor the signal and manage our portfolio very carefully.
I've been watching Ben every other day for years now. At this point I feel like he should invite me to his home.
LoL if you're an ITC premium member you get invited to his annual party
10:28 the only words we need to hear
Legend 🤣
Thanks. Live long and prosper 🖖
Affirmative
whats he suggesting? little confused
Yeah true. He said top is close so altcoin season coming that means😂
OG - who else is looking at diminishing ratio of pi cycle top!! Lots of people rely on this metric as a good standard. Interesting to consider a case where it doesn't flash this time.
where can we add it, its not on tradingview or is it?
It is @@yoriichi790
Ben often signs off like he’s bursting for a toilet break!
Thank you once again Ben! I like referring to the '2019 Camp'. Put my tent there.
Waiting for the Ben Cycle indicator
There is the Ben Cowen bands indicator
watch it in 0.1x speed to get a 3 hour long movie night guys
I’ve been waiting for this video a long time
When you think you have heard everything about crypto, Ben comes with new thoughts. Love it.
Excuse my French, but I f****** love this channel. I learn so much.
This guy is a legend🙏 For everybody fighting in the trenches for the financial freedom, this guy is a must follow
I agree rate cuts usually mean dump soon. But 2019 was diffrent,it wasnt a halving year event. So why would it be the same now? Now its halving.
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Your comment is the best comment in the comments ection. 2019 definitely wasn't an halving year , so I don't know why he's comparing it with this halving year. There's no way bitcoin will completely Tapout now when interest rate is not yet even start cutting. We're just getting started. The only reason bitcoin coin will top out now is unless the rotation alcoin season will start soon where most investors will start putting there money in alcoins for much gains as soon as the fed start to cut interest rate.
Love these at the margin shows. It's been so boring in crypto all summer it keeps me on my toes.
You make a good point, Ben. Thanks for sharing!
Some people are the equivalent of dyslexic re math and graph comprehension abilities, but they might still wish to benefit from Ben's remarkable wisdom? So offering a number of potential conclusions based on Bens data WOULD indeed be very helpful. Please Ben, consider this option?
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Reflection Ben: take into account the potential for 2021 also being an outlier with an artificial double top probably due to china banning btc, Elon / Tesla stopping btc payments etc because if you hypothesize that didn’t happen you could have had a normal cycle top instead of 2 peaked but an all in all higher btc price (just once) and therefore an higher coefficient. Food for thought
Now, one more element to review your whole thesis: macro view. Look at NDX, look at SPX, does this look like 2019? Imo, it's a straight blow off top. BTC will pump the as last and hard and short.
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Can't help but wonder whats a few trillion among friends.
An equal amount of bankruptcy 👌 not paying sheet
Wow, really good take, it's something to actually think about.
So much for the etf’s effects!
Problem isn't the ETF, but rather Bitcoin being classified as a Commodity which opened the doors for it to be manipulated through Future Contracts.
Ben should treat himself with some Pi today, love the videos!
What you say here is very rational. The "pi" cycle top is based on only 4 successful prior crossings, a very small sample set, and when you use an alternate currency, like the Canadian dollar, it failed to cross in 2019 (BTC/CAD pricing). So certainly the pi cycle top cannot be taken as any type of indicator on which anyone should "bet the farm." In my view, trying to call tops is extremely difficult for any market, so scaling out incrementally into fiat based on increasing upward deviations from a trend baseline on a log-log time-price chart (like Givoanni Santistasi's) would make more sense. But I would never completely exit my Bitcoin position, let alone doing that based on a single indicator. And if volatility keeps decreasing as a function of time into the future, as has been happening, that adds more cause for being cautious about the continued reliability of the pi cycle top.
Dubious as hell
It's da way
I dont think this time will cross either. But in 2019/2020 the correction in the market should've ended with 6k-ish in january if it wasnt for the covid debacle. So a total of 5/6 months downtrend. This means that by the end of the year now, if we dont have extraordinary events, the market should more or less restart to trend up again. 0.85/0.9 should be a good guess on where the market should get to this cycle based on the Pi Cycle indicator chart
great video ben this will help us make great informed decison
Love it when Cowen says “it begs the question 🙋♂️” you it’s time listen up closely ❤
Ben I think your chart describes a nice possible cycle bottom indicator at 0.1
This was so interesting, many thanks! It feels like a real possibility that those lines won't cross in this (and possibly forthcoming) cycles
Legit analysis. Like all such, take want you want from it. Well done Ben.
Excellent video. Thank you very much for the update.
Well, if it hits 1 I'll be selling😊. Will it hit 1? Depends...if we get a peak with manipulated wyckoff dist again then no...whereas if we get large blow-off top...then yes. Question is how many more cycles will this indicator be good for?
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Thanks Ben! 💪
signals from this indicator is diminishing. however this might still be useful as a bottom indicator. good stuff Mr. Cowen
This is a great find and very well presented thank you!
I would like a video about the pi cycle bottom indicator as well. It's an excellent time to dollar cost average
Ben, I'd like to hear your take on the BTC weekly stock to flow indicator which continues to trend vertical. Price action has yet to react in its usual fashion, heading up towards it. Thanks in advance.
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Maybe trying to normalize the 350D SMA with a variable that slowly decreases over time, instead of a constant, or the other way, multiplying the 111D with a slowly increasing variable, might be able to fix this indicator if it ends up not triggering this cycle.
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Ben, any chance you could comment on the 5.3 theory from Steve at crypto crew university ? Thanks
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Interesting part is if you look at the pattern final max value within a certain Marge could be derived, but is that what we expect? The pattern of btc looks kind of curved to a max possible value. But I think everyone is expecting it will breakout of that pattern in the this cycle or the next. Or not??
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Legend 🙌
Please make a point form summery at the end of the video please.
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Crypto is so dull now
Just my opinion but I hope we hit 75k before the end of this cycle maybe barely touch 80 k
Crystal clear 👌
Ben do make another analysis on Pi cycle bottom
I agree , i second this. Please do it ben
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Thanks 👍
Great Video. Thanks
Keep up the daily videos
Can you explain what you divded to get the yellow line, what is x & what is y???
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Exactly Ben.
What is the market implications of Ben putting out a video that doesn't mention Bitcoin Dominance a single time? Or we don't have enough prior iterations of this to extrapolate anything?
Best theory ever!!!
Thanks for the great video
You are wise beyond your years Ben. Could the percentage decrease from Pi cycle tops be used as an approximation of the potential next Pi cycle top that may occur in 2025? Much appreciate your perspective and thank you for the content.
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Perhaps the ratio is getting smaller because of the wide open knowledge on the pi cycle top indicator. People sell quickly and they cross back.
Thank you
I think the last cycle was a deviation due to the rate hikes. We also didn't get the post BTC top Altcoin run. If it's 2019 will we get the post btc top altcoin run?
BOOM 💥 BOOM 💥
you might be very right my man
good video thanks :). i hope you make it as well around the top
When pi cycle dominance video?
BTC.D eats Pi for breakfast, that's why
Dominance refers to a percentage. Pi is a collection of MAs, so it can't have a percentage or dominance.
@@moonflow5133 wow you must be fun at parties..
Excellent idea 💡
What do you think about AVAX? Will it reach $140 again? In the previous cycle it was $140
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very smart and informative!
When bullish?
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March 2023 when banks collapsed and btc rallied
Hello is good player
What does Pi have to do with it
The ratio between the moving averages involved is around 3, so the pi title.
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This is much similar to 2017
Can you do a whale wallet video. What are the whales doing during this time?
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To me it looks more like the 2017 double top before the 2018 rally. Similar price action and similar pattern
That edit at 17:00 threw me for one. Has a glitch in the matrix come to the Cryptoverse??!!
Thanks Ben!!!!
Can you fit or re adjust the model Ben?
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1,,,,Thx Ben
Looks like 2016 if anything in your chart.
So we won’t get a bull till late 2025 or 2026?! Great…
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What are your top five BTC top indicators
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Ty sir
16:55 I thinks that's the first cut I've seen in a video of Ben lol
Eventually, Bitcoin will likely follow a curve similar to gold. The drastic rises and falls will get ironed out. Accumulate accumulate accumulate.
I tend to agree 100%
💯
There was a cut!!!! 😨
2019.
Only one mention of Bitcoin dominance 😮
I don't think it will cross either this time
In short: the ATH was already reach 72K/ Wait 3/4 more year for next ATH - next cycle
Is he basically saying bitcoin has topped? The info is not clear to me.
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I stopped watching at 10:30 , nothing more is required ;)
💐💐💐🙏🙏
We can only wonder
If they don’t cross you would have an extended bull run till they cross.
like
the data suggests the indicator is no longer valid