The Science Behind Unboxing In TF2
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- Опубліковано 21 сер 2024
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When a new update drops in TF2, such as the summer 2023 update. People lose their minds, not only for the seal in said update but for the new case and cosmetics. However, what if I told you that there is a smarter way to unbox if you're aiming to make profit. Today we're going to take a di;ve into the science behind unboxing.
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![[TF2] Is Unboxing Worth It? I Did the Math to Find Out](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/YrMfcGN5FaA/mqdefault.jpg)
![[TF2] Unusual Casual](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/C6kc4Oq-RPQ/mqdefault.jpg)
![[TF2] The Hitman's Heatmaker Is A Weapon That Exists](/img/n.gif)
Unboxing is always a bad idea and basically a massive money sink... but if you have the disposable income and want to try your luck here is mathetically the best way to throw your money away!
ok
one thing I noticed for a few months now, is that I've unboxed 5 unusuals - 3 hats and 2 war paints, all at the same time during the night, all from the current cases and all dropped from the first 15 cases (and this inclues the unlocked boxes from the store). For now I have a theory that if certain factors are met the possibility of a unusual drop is increased. Kinda like Blizzard's Hearthstone - the first ten packs guarantee you a legendary card.
I might try it with another case, just need to remember which ones I've opened so far (after getting the unusual, I only get merc grade items)
I think the biggest pull for unboxing older cases is that if you get an unusual with a new effect, it's very likely to be 1/1 or only 1/few. If you're looking to get a rare unusual unboxing the new cosmetics doesn't make sense since you can ALWAYS get the effects associated with that case, ex. The Hat Outta Hell can still get the Pumpkin Moon effect to this day. But it would be impossible to unbox a new Pumpkin Moon Patriot Peak ever since Scream Fortress 13 ended. In my opinion the meta for unboxing is holding out for events to get effects that weren't released with your hat, OR to go with crates/cases with the largest average return on investment (ex certain crate series, since keys are so cheap now in comparison to Case Keys).
This is why I always tend to unbox older cases near the end of the event purely for profit unboxing if I'm looking to do that. Obviously the new case makes sense to unbox for videos early on while there's some hype and it's a hot search topic, but for people that aren't making videos there's no real reason to unbox the new case if they are looking for profit. Ofc this is kind of a different story when it comes to the new war paint case which is an important thing to take note of.
Sigh... Time to go unbox 100 crates
Sometimes i like coming here and remember the good old days.... Rip pyrojoe 🕊️ gone to soon we will miss you
man this video was a great watch, really nice to see the thought process behind this kind of thing. always wondered why Tough Break cases were so expensive
A few Scream Fortresses ago I unboxed a Mystical Medley Nasty Norseman. I believe its only one of 3 or 5, as it was a new effect on an older hat. Not the most desirable all class, but effect is good. I think ive seen one sell for 180 keys, when the same effect on the new hats were selling for a fraction of that price.
Ay congrats man! I love the norseman personally so that's awesome
I have a totally one of a kind unusual medic hat from that 2x random unusual chance event, but I am not keen on selling it, because I know people are going to lowball it.
I unboxed the 1/1 haunted wick bone cone last year and sold that for 500 keys worth of unusuals. Even if I unbox another unusual again, I don't think I'll hit that high.
“These hats will never reach the heights because the supply is high” _And yet the hat outta hells mentioned are still at least over $200_
*Oh! Well, guess I’ll go fuck myself!*
LOL i mean you have to remember the PM Hoh is the absolute peak, and compared to the similar Rotation Sensation it's a fraction of the price
@@PyroJoe Yeah, unusual prices go stupid.
But when even the lower end unusual AC’s (at least the ones that don’t make your eyes bleed) are still in the ball park of $100-300. It really puts into perspective how unable I am to afford these. Most expensive item I got in my back pack is a $20 sniper rifle I won in an auction cuz the dude was getting rid of it.
Like, got dam!
if you think about it, there would be no unusuals if nobody wanted to sink their money on cases
This morning I decided to unbox 1 tough break case cuz I had some leftover steam funds and I was telling myself "itd be really funny if this is an unusual" and much to my surprise I got a bubble breeze chullo 😂
Think imma do this with my tough break case now that the new Scream Fortress dropped
Would be keen to see your take on unusual effects tier seeing that there has been so many new ones over the years.
Speaking of older cases and unboxing, I didnt play tf2 for like 1.5 - 2 years, until a few days ago. I wanted to do a bit of unboxing for 5€ (Scream Fortress 2020 cases) and managed to pull a Green Energy King Cardbeard all class hat. (its the blue hat, not the red very expensive one)
so spending 5€ got me about 80€ lol
did get a Celestial Summit Woolen Warmer when chasing a Head Prize. By far the best Unusual I've ever gotten and I get at least 1 offer for around 200-300 keys for it a week.
Agreed, I unboxed a mountain halo chilled chullo, got it on clip. Rainy Day was a target, cause imagine a treasure trove plumber's cap.
Still has yet to be unboxed even tho I’ve personally done over 1k rainy days 😢
Spent money for the sake of mathematics?It is worthy of respect
fine fine I'll open some more blue moon cases
overall a great video and sums up my whole thought process when I unbox cases during an update lmao
preciate it bro! Best of luck
It's weird as I think anybody who has an idea on how these packs work now, you would never ever unbox them outside of events, and you will save the new packs for future attempts, while sinking your gambling addiction on older packs for the reason you explained on the exclusivity. Personally dumped a $100 this year on '22 Halloween crates and got myself the Starlight Sorcerer with the Stellar Ascent effect. Not the best all class, but boy with the possible effects you could combine with this hat you couldn't ask for a more perfect combination.
well after basically 5 years not playing i grabbed a 2020 smissmis and 3 keyus later i hit a strange unusual warpaint... so honestly it feels like two systems. one that if you fail farrrrr too often and never get past mid teir things from any opening youll get something justttt a bit over or on that line. 2 and the bigger one is a cool down system. that if you dont play/trade or anything and come back it will give you a higher teir pool by default for a bit to give you that rush in making you spend more. tho. the rng is still there.
sick editing
Completely agree with the video. I should know. I unboxed a Twisted Radiance Tundra Top a couple of Halloweens ago and as far as I can tell it’s a 1/1
Damn i love the tundra! Congrats bro
Can you still unbox the burning flames team captain?
Yes. You most likely won't even get close though.
@@noodleman4555 which crate do you unbox it from? I am new to unboxing.
@@averyjudgementalsoldier8303 Series 1-25 With the old crates.
@@averyjudgementalsoldier8303 mann co supply cases #1 - #25. you can also get quite a few strange weapons as well from these!
@@averyjudgementalsoldier8303 You can still get gen 1 effects on the old og crates. You can sometimes get lucky with the multi-class crates as well, but to my knowledge you cannot unbox an unusual team captain from those.
rest in peace, pyrojoe
Just unboxed a battle scarred unusual secret services with the hot effect today, it was my first
Can’t believe we lost a goat of tf2 you will be missed😢
rip Pyro Joe
Hey I unboxed a 1/1 Assassin grade Sightseer unusual with the new Revenant’s Rack effect from the new Halloween case but it doesn’t have a price. Should I try sell it now or should I wait for the event to end? What should I do because I have no idea what it’s worth
Nice Macaw rocket. You should make a video on the rare Macaw patterns.
Been gunning for a corona australis lately but got a sakura smokebomb universal translator...might just be 1/1
I always try to save up tons of money for cases with insane unusual hats to unbox in bulk. I know a few where pulling a specific hat covers for 100 boxes at least.
And they are?
I need starburst gnome dome
Pyro Joe what about that big trader that made his inv untradable vid?
How'd you do the glowing text effect at 2:17 ?
they have been giving away that fucking hat for years at this point
also good cheaper hats are better for everyone.
Other video
This isn't exactly a new concept. People have been doing this for years, especially with the tough break case, which is nearly 8 years old at this point, and those all-class unlocked crates.
Absolutely! But every year i see people I knwo unbox the new case by the hundreds so i figured the more people know, the better
That hud looks nice! Which HUD is it?
hypnotizehud with minimal mode enabled
@@DannyCheezits ^ This! It's called Hypnotizehud - im not sure if i enabled minimal mode knowingly though ahaha
Can you do a video gaming Joe
Poopmaster113
0:08 -“that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by their character”
Gambling is never worth it unless you own the casino. Or you're a TikTok NPC making several thousands a day for the entertainment of the apes.
Been tryna get an unusual for so long still nothing but this video could change everything