WHAT 2 YEARS OF RECRUITMENT LOOK LIKE [ARKNIGHTS]
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- Опубліковано 25 сер 2024
- Always remember: Variance!
Originally, a couple friends and I started collecting this recruitment data because we were actually curious about the numbers, and we were not aware that there was a bigger group doing the same.
I do not remember who is part of that bigger group, so I can't even point you in their direction, I'm sorry.
Now our curiosity was satiated, and we are kinda tired of keeping track of each tag every day, so we're stopping.
2 years of recruitment. That's quite some time to note down tags without skipping a single day.
People freak out a lot about the recruitment rates, but they are very down to the ground, there's nothing too special about them, you get the green certs you need and a nice amount of yellow certs.
Hopefully this video will be useful to someone curious, just like me.
#arknights #statistics
I've been complaining lately about not getting top tags for a long time and this week I got 2.
Congrats!
This is how it always goes for me. I'll go literally several months without so much as even a senior operator tag and then I'll get like 3 top operator tags in a week. Luck just kinda be like that.
1 call out for newer players: what Kuma talks about at 12:15 applies to you even if you haven't max potted all of your 4* yet.
Just think of the 4* potentials as an up front tax on it or think of the potentials as being worth more than 15 green certs and .2 yellow certs (since they permanently increase your characters power).
As a new player who started last month just in time for the Typhon event (am currently saving for the R6S collabs), this sort if number crunching is really good stuff and rather reassuring for a F2P. The fact I can make back a full stack purchase of green certs and maybe get some yellows is neat stuff.
Prior to this video, i was looking at Recruitment as a 87.5% chance to be 3*.
But his numbers are pretty strong evidence for a ~72%, given the consistency between the two years and the sheer number of pulls.
Thats going from 7/8 pulls being 3s, to very slightly less than 3 out of 4.
OH GODDAMIT HE'S DOING IT AGAIN
Pure commitment, what a legend. Now if anyone asks to prove recruitment odds, we have a literal 2 year database for them to eat on (assuming no major changes to recruitment in the future)
Also just made some calcs on covering the remaining green certs in case anyone's interested:
Total needed: 2600 * 12 = 31200
- assume ~28500 green certs earned per year.
- weekly missions give 20 per week: 20 * 52 = 1040
- daily login gives 10 per month: 10 * 12 = 120
Total remaining: 31200 - 28500 - 1040 - 120 = *1540 needed from pulls*
Assuming you have full potentials on 3* (15 certs), that equals 103 3*s
OR
Assuming you have at least 1 of every 4* (30 certs), that equals 52 4*s
Using standard headhunting rates [50% for 4*s and 40% for 3*s] (which isn't real but cope), doing a 10-pull will net ~210 certs (or ~21 certs per pull), so *you can get enough green certs after ~73 pulls.*
which sounds like a lot, but remember that you just need this much IN A YEAR.
For reference, you get 5 pulls per week or 260 pulls per year just from weekly annihilation + daily missions alone, not to mention free pulls from limited events (~34 per event, 4 events per year)
Someone can correct my math if I'm wrong, but tl;dr it's actually really easy to get the remaining green certs
edit: added bold
Thanks for the video! The pulls by rarity is super helpful. The specific tag % changes if a new operator is added to that tag so the data is skewed like you said. For example, Nuker and Crowd Control became more common once the 4* were added to it.
So good. Thank you so much for putting the effort for this.
As someone that just went from 1 pot Friston to max pot Friston in less than a month, I strongly recommend rolling 1 hr Defender/Defense everytime you see it. I used to roll 3:50 for Robot, but someone in Aegle discord told me they farmed full pot Friston with 1 hr tags and I had like 500 books so I tried it and it worked well for me. I actually got 2 Friston on the same day at one point.
That's what I did for the other ones, I'm not in a rush for friston, so I'll just wait, but thx for the good advice
nice video!
I remember watching your 2022 video when I was a newbie and it was very informative. Glad you did another year
Its good to know the LMD savings for 7:40 is negligible
I think one thing is that 7:40 means you can pull 3 times a day instead of only twice (assuming you are awake to set the tags)
it could be helpful if you run 252 and only have 2 slots in recruitment.
But I guess we have the expedited plans to balance that out too
There's no material benefit of pulling 3 times a day because that just means you are going to run out of recruit permits to the point that you're pulling 3 times a day for a few weeks at the start of the month and then can only pull as many permits as you get per day for a few weeks until the month reset. Even if you only have 2 recruitment slots. Plus don't forget the surplus of expedited recruits. In the rare case that someone really can't find enough time to use all of their recruit permits they could supplement with expedited recruits. Said differently, the bottleneck is permits, not time or recruit slots.
Whether or not the LMD is negligible is going to vary from account to account. If you have a highly optimized base (aka 252) that makes the LMD less valuable, if you still farm CE-6 that makes the LMD more valuable, etc.... I think each person sort of needs to assess that for themselves and it may change for that player as their account evolves or matures.
This was an incredible amount of work!!! Congrats on the reaserch about the recruitments!!!!
I'm jealous of your maxed Vulcan; after more than 4 years I'm still 1 pot away on her. And one of the 5 I have I got by buying 5* defender tokens from the yellow shop...
For reference I've been playing for 1 year and I got 14 top op tags. And only 3 senior tags that did not include top tag.
2 Siege, Ifrit, Saria, Chen, Hellagur, 2 Mostimas, Ceobe, Bagpipe, 2 Phantoms, Weedy, Rosa
But it's been 2 months since I last saw a top op tag.
this sorta stats video is super nice :3
kuma, youre insane, this video is insane, those stats are insane
now im more than unconfident to pull lmao
libreoffice mentioned, yipee!!!!
This past two months I've been dealing with a DRAUGHT of green certs. I've been getting way too many 5 stars and 3 6 stars from requirement. It sounds like a blessing but it's a curse imo because now I don't have enough green certs to buy upgrade materials or more requirement permits.
Two months ago I had 175 yellow certs and now I have 310.
i already got 30 more TOP OPERATORS tag . played the for 4 years
I only keep track of my top ops, but I currently sitting at 15 6* after 18,5 months of playing.
(I do buy all the permits I can)
Keep in mind that the LMD savings from 7:40 vs 9:00 are a bit smaller because you have a level 3 office. Higher office levels give a slight LMD discount per recruitment, so the difference is bigger for lower office levels. For a level 1 office:
9h no tags: 774 LMD
7h40 no tags: 630 LMD
9h 3 tags: 1044 LMD
7h40 3 tags: 900 LMD
So a difference of 144 LMD versus 112 for the level 3 office. Doesn't look like much at first, but it's almost a 30% increase in LMD saved. Assuming 4 total recruitments finished a day (standard 2 logins a day with no expedited plans being used), it saves 576 LMD a day, and per year, 207360 LMD. While it is a drop in the bucket in the very long run, framing it as "I just need to click 4 extra times per recruitment to save 200K LMD a year" makes it seem significantly less burdensome.
I think the extra time spent clicking isn't the only consideration. There's also the unknown chance of getting non-guaranteed (sometimes tagless) 4* or 5*. Kuma kind of calls this out at the beginning of the video, but if it's even remotely possible that doing 9h has a tiny increase of odds of getting a 4* or 5* without tags then it's worth the cost in LMD (especially when you have 10 million and nothing to spend it on).
It's hard for us to measure this impact since a lot of variables go into these recruit videos. For example I've seen a lot of recruitment measuring videos where they just store up their recruit permits and do them all at once with expedited recruits. Well this is going to generate wildly different numbers than what Kuma got because of the loss of all of the refreshes. So if they did 7h 40m for tagless we can't determine the difference between theirs and Kumas due to the difference in refresh counts. Specifically refresh counts means a slightly higher rate of getting guaranteed tags for operators than no refresh counts.
At the end of the day each person needs to determine what's best for their account. Given Kuma's tendency to eschew 6* LMD is worth a lot less for him than it might be for others. For people like me that have very optimized bases and are generating 70K+ LMD every day they might also not care as much about the LMD costs. I'm currently at a stock pile of LMD in the millions that I have no way to spend unless I decided to convert my base into orundum grinding. So even though I value 6* more than Kuma does I agree with him about LMD having a lot less value than most people think it does for my account.
If you think the amount matters, that's good, the important part is thinking about it and reaching a real conclusion
I haven't gotten top op in like couple of months already
6:04 But Kuma, that's still more than you get from CE-6, hence if you have farmed CE-6 more times than the number of months that has passed, that would save you 36 Sanity per month. We get 240 Sanity per day, so this would give you effectively 0.5% more Sanity which is not negligible
If anyone wants to save, that's ok, but knowing the numbers is important, bc it is a very small amount, and it is indeed negligible for a lot of players
4:30 I'm trying to get pots for both Friston AND Vulcan so I'm kinda screwed, need to get both 5-star and 1-star defenders
I'm more scared that because I haven't been pulling (since I'm waiting for shu) my green cer generated few per day... This is bad let's just say you want to buy all the HH ticket for pulling which are 4 and you buy like 3 to 7 HH with gold cert.
This means I can get 11-13 HH if I willing to but now I'm scared can I pull this off in 3 months 😅
12:57 HUH
Thx for the video!
2 words: pain and suffering
I think its half a year since i got a rare tag. I feel like the chance for them is reduce somehow
woah, that is a lot of red certs
i wonder what your red cert shop looks like (i grind AP-5 a lot so those certs mean a lot to me xd)
I bought the tokens before and after the shop reset, so I do have a collection thanks to the red certs
Me who grind ap5 for chip catalyst especially for shu and co.
8 six stars? dawg i only ever got 1
mano vc é br q daora