The Day of Reckoning for the United States Economy is Here.
Вставка
- Опубліковано 1 тра 2024
- 📈 Try our Membership for Free at bit.ly/3UqidIh
The trajectory of U.S. national debt has been staggering: from a total of $1 trillion in 1980 to an overwhelming $35 trillion today, significantly outpacing economic growth. This explosion of debt has not only raised concerns about future economic stability but also challenged the traditional understanding of debt's impact on financial markets, which appear largely indifferent despite potentially ominous projections. As historical data and academic studies suggest, while high debt levels correlate with diminished economic growth, the immediate effects on the stock market, driven by factors like low interest rates, remain complex and multifaceted.
🐦 Follow GOT on 𝕏:
/ gameoftrades_
🐦 Follow Peter on 𝕏:
/ petermassaut
🔵 Follow GOT on Linkedin:
/ game-of-trades
🔵 Follow Peter on Linkedin:
/ peter-massaut-949b20213
📹 Want to produce videos just like this? Reach out to info@bravoscreativestudio.com
DISCLAIMER: This video is for entertainment purposes only. We are not financial advisers, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky; best of luck!
There is no plan to repay the debt and it never will be repaid.
1800 until 1972, the debt had to be paid back with gold. Now it doesn't. So, since 1972 it's been advantageous for the government to write debt and pay it back later with inflated currency. That's why you see the graph do that, starting right about at... 1972... wow, what a coincidence!
The Stockmarket being at near all times highs can be credited to the Plunge Protection Team and the Fed's interference in the Markets. There are no Free Markets in existence today.
Can we accelerate this already
34T of US debt is actually Robert Kiyosaki
andrew jackson had the national debt paid down to $0 in 1835
Thank the boomer politicians for this.
The 60’s hippies.
All part of the cycle man, dont fall for that game
It’s worse than the numbers indicate because a sizable amount of GDP comes from government spending the new debt, and thus actual productive GDP is far lower than it might seem. Debt-to-GDP is a poor measurement, since one pumps the other.
Yeah I hate gdp as a good measure
Bingo
If you adjust nominal GDP for both population and Big Mac inflation, then real US GDP per person peaked around the year 2000.
Debt has been increasing because our monetary system is based on usury.
I have $130k sitting on the sidelines in cash waiting for this ponzi to collapse
All interest-based fiat currency systems must fail
ALL
Prepare for incoming
The US needs to cut government expenditures and start to pay his debt. De-escalating the war conflicts around the world will significantly help to reduce he military budget.
Government cannot let stock market to devalue. They are counting on $trillion of taxes from tax deferred retirement accounts. FED will need to monetize the debt with yield rate control.
Power of compounding
It's true that there isn't a technical recession right now by the book definition. But the GDP numbers are lagging. The 10-2 tbill is already un-inverting. If you really look at Main Street (not Wall Street), you see that the real economy is pulling back.
1) The GDP in other parts of the world is pulling back. The economy is linked.
2) Corporations are propping up earnings by laying off employees.
3) Inflation makes it look like earnings are up but they aren't. Each dollar is worth less. Nominal GDP is not inflation adjusted. (Real GDP is)
4) Each of the recent labor reports are showing that hiring has really slowed down.
5) Look at the transportation numbers, and you will realize that a recession is already loaded in the chamber. It cannot be avoided now, the only question is how deep.
6) Look at the rotating credit statistics--they are spiking up. Really listen to what reports from Starbucks and other companies are saying. Discretionary spending is down.
I remember the 2008 crisis. Germany was doing badly until then; whereas Spain, Greece, etc, were doing really well. Germany was one of teh few EU countries that used large amounts of money (debt) to get out of the crisis; Spain, Greece, etc. entrered austerity. The result was that Germany became the power house of the EU while the south experienced an incredible crisis from which it has never recovered.
You are not including the present value of future liabilities. The General Acceptable Accounting Practices guideline must include that as well. The real debt is about 200 trillion dollars.
Ohhhhhh just print the money!!
For the US it is probably the process like becoming bankrupt. Slowly then all of a sudden very fast. There is still the international demand for the main world currency, the US dollar, and who knows when that demand will suddenly snap as confidence disappears.
If you look at the rising debt levels as simply the left-hand side of a bell curve, then, once the embedded inflation is too great to control, that curve will flatten, then decline precipitously as inflation, bankruptcies and various forms of debt repudiation take hold. That will be when the inflation rate that was held in abeyance during the debt bubble begins its own parabolic left-hand-side of a bell curve. Where it goes, nobody knows, but it will happen.
You charts are amazing, thank you!!
👏👏👏👏
8:09 i remember that candle, it was jacksonhole 22. what do u think is the significance of that trendline? why do u think it cares about that day but not the peak of that rally?
If you pause to look at the chart [0:41] it's really in just the past 20 years that the debt has started dramatically outpacing GDP. Which is interesting since people having been freaking out about the national debt for 50 years. That being said, we obviously cannot continue growing the debt faster than the economy or the whole system will break at some point.
If you want to understand stock market first you need to understand bond market
There's more dollar-denominated debt outside of the US than inside. That means that everyone else goes first. It's a total stack of cards.
Hello - just checked and 5 largest debt holders of usa debt outside us is only about 3.5 trillion. Total usa debt is about 34 trillion so doesn’t seem possible that 17 trillion outside usa. The fed alone is holding about 7 trillion of debt. What does your data shown on debt holders?
The Debt to GDP ratio peaked in Q2 of 2020 (mainly due to COVID) and is significantly lower now than at that time.
Wait a sec.. what was the average price of oil pre pandemic? Shouldn't oil, like almost all other commodities post pandemic, feel the inflationary burn? Most commodities I know are up about 35% or near all time highs, so why wouldn't oil?
Modern economics takes as a given that debt is going to be inflated away so the problem isn't the debt but the inflation. "How does Society pay for anything if inflation is raging away" not debt. Certain Government officials claim "taxpayer money" is in fact "Government money" but this is no longer true once everyone is out of work and inflation is still raging away. And Government isn't the only one issuing debt needs noting as well.
If everyone farted than it will speed up
That was a great video. I agree the stock market is not going to be the best place to park money over the next decade.
Dude, I would love having a chat with you someday!
Your work ist outstanding, consistent content and your predictions nail it a lot of times.
❤ Love from Germany ❤
Just pop the debt bubble already. We know there wont be a soft landing, so do the right thing, get the economic depression out of the way as soon as possible so we can come out of it with a prosperous and affordable economy. It will be terrible, but runaway inflation and prolonged extreme unaffordability is a far worse alternative.
I don't doubt that debt hurts growth, but I wonder if that study adjusted for the size of the economy. For example, the US had lower debt levels in the past. Going from a society where half worked in farming to 1% due to mechanization created huge growth. That can only happen once.
The miracle of compounding can be a horrible thing.
When it's not in your favor.
Keep up the good work❤
This is a compelling enough story without the hype. What are the national debt numbers per capita and inflation adjusted?
Stock investors do care about debt look at M1 vs the stock market. Market underperforms M1 by a lot. More money but stocks don’t go up proportionately. Stocks still go up but not as much as it would have.
Interesting 😮
These high interest rates only matter when they have to refinance their debt.
I googled debt/gdp by country and noticed Australia (NZ too)is drastically lower than most of the developed world. How did that happen?
Debt to the Gov is nothing
Debt is a feature of a debt based fiat currency system
It expands until the real economy can no longer support interest payments and it all collapses
Japan has been over 100% debt to gdp for 20+ years. Currently, at 250%+ in 2024. The markets are solely driven by massive greed the last decade. I dont think this debt to GDP really correlates to anything anymore.
0:22 A generation is generally considered 20-30 years. 40 years is a stretch.
US inflation is due to State spending as well.
Sure could
@1:17 one generation is 15-30years. 40 is more like two generations.
Tesla robotaxis and other disruptive innovation could increase debt to GDP over the next 5 years as industries are disrupted and GDP falls, but increase GDP and decrease debt to GDP over longer than five years. Robotaxis would also reduce demand and the price for oil.
Interest growing daily...so terrible and the irresponsible idiots act like the money trees are unlimited.
Election year this is a 2025 problem
Meanwhile we had two green days in a row given bad news in different directions
Every week I buy more of whatever is the lowest percentage of my portfolio and try to keep everything around 10%, but what could be my safest buys with $400k to outperform the market in 2024?
intresting video The rising interest rate can surely control inflation, but won't prevent erosion of the eroding purchasing power of the US dollar. I have learnt my lesson this time. The banks can't be making money off my money, while inflation eats into it. I have set aside 650k to invest in the stock market now, since that keeps up with inflation, but I don't know how to get started.
BUCKLE UP LFG
Dollar denomination with banking crisis will repeat like 2007-09 and US government can go x3 from todays lvls in few years. I bet on that scenario.
But more dept is for more population. No dept means no growth?
The most important question is when the US debt bubble will burst?
National debt hits 50 trillion in about a decade cbo.
This is my favourite comment section ever
low growth often leads to lower inflation and lower rates. This video doesn't fit with what i've read.
BUY GME & AMC
Minsky moment incoming
Let's Go Brandon!
omg first im so special!
Debt will continue to increase exponentially just like it has for decades. As long as it is inflated away at a similar rate this can go on indefinitely. Inflation will be a lot higher but that's about it
In 1000 AD people trade milk for nuts 😂
A generation is 20 years, not forty. Read a book.
republican obsession with line go up has now caused the wrong lines to go up
booooom
Time to return to sound money. Time to return to actual capitalism.. what we have now in canada sure isnt capitallism every single place you turn is a monopoly or close to it.
so it's TINA nothing else
First
too much greenback will be the worthless paper one day...soon
I'm surprised that you had the 5000 level on your TA. For once it matched my drawings. But after double checking it's complete luck.
The info you provide are always very interesting, and i love the channel, but take no offence, your charting skills are uncomprehensible.
The only American who won't acknowledge this Administration's failed economic policies is Joe Biden. "Shrink-flation' is the least of our worries compared to rising rents and stagnant wages, but it is an undeniable indicator of how bad our inflation has gotten. I have $100k that i like to invest in a non-retirement account, any advice on that?
Too late for most 🤓 🖕
#Bitcoin will be the best performing asset for this century
First