Wanna support the show? Head over to the store! Get merch! shop.thelinuxcast.org [time stamps] 00:00:00 Intro 00:00:48 Our Week in FOSS 00:00:56 Drew's Week in FOSS 00:02:37 Nate's Week in FOSS 00:04:19 Matt's Week in FOSS 00:07:16 Where Will Linux Be in 30 Years? 01:03:39 Nuggies of the Week 01:04:06 Drew's Nuggie 01:05:04 Nate's Nuggie 01:07:09 Matt's Nuggie 01:08:17 Contact Info and Goodbyes
What scares me most about recent developments in Linux-based systems is that they are following Google's open source model with regard to Android: it's open, you can see it but you can't touch it. Google has created an environment that doesn't allow companies to use pure AOSP; the system is immutable, and it's entirely controlled by one entity, which even controls the distribution of applications, which is a real gem that everyone wants.
I started with Linux 25y ago. The main difference is the professionalism now. Much more development, Linux is (one of) the main platform to develop for. Many things back then are not an issue now. Drivers, support, libraries, frameworks, very good UI, games. In 30y, this will only be massively better. The whole Windows/Linux will maybe not even exist due to containerization.
56:51 in my imagination AI could integrate in the linux terminal shell making it easy for the bot to autocorrect wrong commands or inteprit what the user is trying to get done. Also something like the user could simply type this in the terminal like - backup all my settings to the other hard drive, or update my system, or nuke my home user account, or make a shell script for this, this and this and it could interact back with the user for getting more context on whats needed and then presenting the output accordingly. Also AI as an agent assistant that you can activate to listen to you via mic or recognise camera gestures which might add more power on top of keyboard shortcuts.
Nate: I fully agree. My view is pretty pessimistic We've been in the "Post PC era" for some time now. My Grand kids use the Google apps online when ever they actually need to do work. Otherwise" just their phones" Non of the MS office software here. In my geo location the neighbors don't have or use computers, just their phones. Most of my elderly friends have donated their old outdated PC's to the local thrift stores. Even at work (day job) the desktop pc's are disappearing, maybe a note book style computer for the occasional email. I'm considered "the dinosaur using a desktop here at home. For the little document production I do it's Libre office. I was a engineering draftsman a few years back and I would really like to see a Linux based fully developed drafting software for 2 dimension shop drawings with good dimension capabilities. don't need the 3-d stuff, just 2-d. Something I can use at home. Real computer technology skills have gone away, no one interested in that anymore. Even trying to find some one that can use a keyboard is rare. The current internet is reduced to content providers hawking the latest consumer grade gadgets to a narrow audience (maybe Gamers). Take a look at Data Archiving, i mean serious archiving and you'll see it's listed under "just not that important" anymore.I mean who's interested in old outdated information that's not relative anymore and requires too much space and energy for storage. So yeah, I see the whole computer technology era going away in the future, kinda like the CB radio.
Linux will continue to gain OS market share. What needs to change is the desktop installation process. Downloading a distro and creating a .iso file on a USB or CDROM is a challenge and is a task that the vast majority of PC users will not do. People need to be able to buy a Linux USB stick, reboot their PC, and have Linux install itself just like with Windows. Of course, the distributor can charge for the USB, but the Linux distro is free.
I like the topic, and discussion was fine too. I guess we can expect higher market shares. Once i read somewhere that Windows will be as a container on the Linux. I hope the "AI" will not be introduced to Linux in the way as M$ does. keep well.
47:11 linux mint update manager has the auto updates toggle option for everything - system, flatpak etc. as long as i avoid sudo around it and if i stick with only flatpaks, i guess its as good as immutable. i keep a timeshift backup as well just in case. the most facinating thing about Fedora and its distros is the BTRFS magic that they make good use of. Too bad other distros have not incorporated BTRFS. Setting up this file system manually is too geeky and demands some time and knowledge. I thought i would try it out on custom Ubuntu but the installation fails probably since I may have not set the proper partition structure. I did witness the update of silverblue 40 to 41 and it was like impressively instantaneous and flawless.
Past the very very beginning was there ever a time where corporate control wasn't involved in Linux? I mean at the very least the last 20 years. I don't think that specifically in the future is going to be a big deal. If you find the current state of Linux fine at least. I don't see how redhat type stuff would be a threat to arch and debian. Any more than they would be now. I don't feel like that point was completely thought out. It just seems easy to say. Corporate control is bad. And sure it almost always is. But I don't think its that simple.
I always find the discussion regarding Corporate influence interesting, Corporations has always been BIG contributor's to various Open Source projects. Aren't they part of the community? And regarding atomic distro's, if they take off this approach would be great for appliances (steam deck), work and school computers, and non-tinkerers. Even if traditional distro users find themselves being a minority percentage wise, the total numbers of users might still grow from today. I don't think traditional distro's are going anywhere.
I'm really worried about where Windows is heading with this Copilot/Recall nonsense. I can't switch to Linux because many of the programs I use do not work on it.
On the conversation about linux vendors being so expensive, I think that's mainly an economy of scale issue. It's nearly always cheaper per unit at higher rates of production. I think as companies like System76 expand (hopefully), they will start offering more value options. Currently their customers tend to be enterprise teams because the economy of scale works in their favor. I think if desktop linux is going to expand, companies like System76 will be valuable. Since most trends in the products we use start in the professional space then diffuse outwards from there. edit: also ai is definitely a bubble right now. You'll know when it's at a good point when there is less divisiveness around the subject at all, and it just becomes another part of the computer/app that's kinda annoying and frustrating to use like any other piece of technology.
@TheLinuxCast Yeah of course, problem with changes in tech is that it's a kind of a chicken and egg situation. No one wants to buy from Linux vendors because they're too expensive, but for them to get cheaper, we need people to buy them. 🤷🏾 Definitely a tough spot
In the future, the BSDs and Haiku will rise to glory and they will be hard for developers ( I will be a BSD user). Ext5 will be integrated with Systemd (joke, just kidding). The Desktop will be more open in regards to viable platforms.
With how Windows is doing and the fact AI is being so heavily pushed, its not crazy to think that GNU/Linux could reach a point where it is chosen over Windows. I think kernel level anti-cheat will be gone with how much backlash it's receiving, and FOSS software will be good enough for people to swap to or at least give a chance. We could also see the real "rise of the Linux Desktop" since by then, both Windows 10 and 11 will be EOL, and Microsoft will continue to push forced ads, forced updates, and remain as slow and sluggish as it is currently.
I hope to god you're right about AI Matt. I hate it and I feel it's totally a gimmick. It's also horrible for the planet with the amount of power it takes to run it. Sick of having it shoved down my throat. The original Gateway is not in business anymore, it's just a brand another manufacturer slaps on generic computers.
governments choosing linux face the angry army of self entitled workers who would refuse to change and probaly call in the union because its unfair for them
In 30 years everything for the mainstream consumer will be SoC, including our understanding of the PC paradigm as it increasingly makes less and less sense to have unintegrated components like PCIe and DDR. It sucks, but we DIY'ers aren't a big enough market to buoy the modular consumer desktop PC's industry relevance. The question is if it will be as challenging to replace the systems on small compute clients as it is to change Android roms _(Oh, you can't unlock the bootloader and even if you did you have no drivers anyways? Guess you're stuck with this system software until we stop supporting it and you have to buy a new one)_, or will we actually start to depend more on Apple-like hardware for software stability like with Asahi? I predict that the hacker spirit will still be there, but we're going to see a shift from Linux being "Unix-like" to custom kernels for SoC's being "Linux-like." It will stop being less about distro fragmentation of Linux, and more about kernel fragmentation.
Linux will be in the same place it was 30 years ago and in the same place it is now - a scattered mess with delusions of grandeur, broken and irrelevant on the desktop, and lousy for anything other than vehicle entertainment systems, web servers, and cell phones. Linux just simply never delivered n any of it's promises with one single exception - it allowed corporations to maximize profits by not having to pay developers.
In 30 years Wayland will finally be ready
Don't be putting that much pressure on them lol. People will still be arguing over the most minor thing
Like fusion power, always 20 years away?
I suspect i'll still be using X11
Right when Half-Life 3 drops! xD
Wanna support the show? Head over to the store! Get merch! shop.thelinuxcast.org
[time stamps]
00:00:00 Intro
00:00:48 Our Week in FOSS
00:00:56 Drew's Week in FOSS
00:02:37 Nate's Week in FOSS
00:04:19 Matt's Week in FOSS
00:07:16 Where Will Linux Be in 30 Years?
01:03:39 Nuggies of the Week
01:04:06 Drew's Nuggie
01:05:04 Nate's Nuggie
01:07:09 Matt's Nuggie
01:08:17 Contact Info and Goodbyes
My first computer was a Gateway as well. Ran Mandrake 8.1 like a dream on that puppy. Surprised they're still around.
the privacy point deserves a whole episode dedicated to it
That's the whole point of using Linux but somehow this lot managed to skim over it.
What scares me most about recent developments in Linux-based systems is that they are following Google's open source model with regard to Android: it's open, you can see it but you can't touch it. Google has created an environment that doesn't allow companies to use pure AOSP; the system is immutable, and it's entirely controlled by one entity, which even controls the distribution of applications, which is a real gem that everyone wants.
I started with Linux 25y ago. The main difference is the professionalism now. Much more development, Linux is (one of) the main platform to develop for. Many things back then are not an issue now. Drivers, support, libraries, frameworks, very good UI, games.
In 30y, this will only be massively better. The whole Windows/Linux will maybe not even exist due to containerization.
56:51 in my imagination AI could integrate in the linux terminal shell making it easy for the bot to autocorrect wrong commands or inteprit what the user is trying to get done. Also something like the user could simply type this in the terminal like - backup all my settings to the other hard drive, or update my system, or nuke my home user account, or make a shell script for this, this and this and it could interact back with the user for getting more context on whats needed and then presenting the output accordingly. Also AI as an agent assistant that you can activate to listen to you via mic or recognise camera gestures which might add more power on top of keyboard shortcuts.
according to wikipedia, gateway was bought by acer in 2007, and they revived the brand in 2020
Nate: I fully agree. My view is pretty pessimistic We've been in the "Post PC era" for some time now. My Grand kids use the Google apps online when ever they actually need to do work. Otherwise" just their phones" Non of the MS office software here. In my geo location the neighbors don't have or use computers, just their phones. Most of my elderly friends have donated their old outdated PC's to the local thrift stores. Even at work (day job) the desktop pc's are disappearing, maybe a note book style computer for the occasional email. I'm considered "the dinosaur using a desktop here at home. For the little document production I do it's Libre office. I was a engineering draftsman a few years back and I would really like to see a Linux based fully developed drafting software for 2 dimension shop drawings with good dimension capabilities. don't need the 3-d stuff, just 2-d. Something I can use at home. Real computer technology skills have gone away, no one interested in that anymore. Even trying to find some one that can use a keyboard is rare. The current internet is reduced to content providers hawking the latest consumer grade gadgets to a narrow audience (maybe Gamers). Take a look at Data Archiving, i mean serious archiving and you'll see it's listed under "just not that important" anymore.I mean who's interested in old outdated information that's not relative anymore and requires too much space and energy for storage. So yeah, I see the whole computer technology era going away in the future, kinda like the CB radio.
Yea, I wish it wasn't the case. But sadly, that's where it's moving.
Linux will continue to gain OS market share. What needs to change is the desktop installation process. Downloading a distro and creating a .iso file on a USB or CDROM is a challenge and is a task that the vast majority of PC users will not do. People need to be able to buy a Linux USB stick, reboot their PC, and have Linux install itself just like with Windows. Of course, the distributor can charge for the USB, but the Linux distro is free.
I like the topic, and discussion was fine too. I guess we can expect higher market shares. Once i read somewhere that Windows will be as a container on the Linux. I hope the "AI" will not be introduced to Linux in the way as M$ does. keep well.
47:11 linux mint update manager has the auto updates toggle option for everything - system, flatpak etc. as long as i avoid sudo around it and if i stick with only flatpaks, i guess its as good as immutable. i keep a timeshift backup as well just in case. the most facinating thing about Fedora and its distros is the BTRFS magic that they make good use of. Too bad other distros have not incorporated BTRFS. Setting up this file system manually is too geeky and demands some time and knowledge. I thought i would try it out on custom Ubuntu but the installation fails probably since I may have not set the proper partition structure. I did witness the update of silverblue 40 to 41 and it was like impressively instantaneous and flawless.
Past the very very beginning was there ever a time where corporate control wasn't involved in Linux? I mean at the very least the last 20 years.
I don't think that specifically in the future is going to be a big deal. If you find the current state of Linux fine at least. I don't see how redhat type stuff would be a threat to arch and debian. Any more than they would be now. I don't feel like that point was completely thought out. It just seems easy to say. Corporate control is bad.
And sure it almost always is. But I don't think its that simple.
I always find the discussion regarding Corporate influence interesting, Corporations has always been BIG contributor's to various Open Source projects. Aren't they part of the community?
And regarding atomic distro's, if they take off this approach would be great for appliances (steam deck), work and school computers, and non-tinkerers. Even if traditional distro users find themselves being a minority percentage wise, the total numbers of users might still grow from today. I don't think traditional distro's are going anywhere.
I'm really worried about where Windows is heading with this Copilot/Recall nonsense. I can't switch to Linux because many of the programs I use do not work on it.
On the conversation about linux vendors being so expensive, I think that's mainly an economy of scale issue. It's nearly always cheaper per unit at higher rates of production. I think as companies like System76 expand (hopefully), they will start offering more value options. Currently their customers tend to be enterprise teams because the economy of scale works in their favor. I think if desktop linux is going to expand, companies like System76 will be valuable. Since most trends in the products we use start in the professional space then diffuse outwards from there.
edit: also ai is definitely a bubble right now. You'll know when it's at a good point when there is less divisiveness around the subject at all, and it just becomes another part of the computer/app that's kinda annoying and frustrating to use like any other piece of technology.
Probably. And I don't blame them, but the effects are what they are.
@TheLinuxCast Yeah of course, problem with changes in tech is that it's a kind of a chicken and egg situation. No one wants to buy from Linux vendors because they're too expensive, but for them to get cheaper, we need people to buy them. 🤷🏾 Definitely a tough spot
In the future, the BSDs and Haiku will rise to glory and they will be hard for developers ( I will be a BSD user). Ext5 will be integrated with Systemd (joke, just kidding). The Desktop will be more open in regards to viable platforms.
With how Windows is doing and the fact AI is being so heavily pushed, its not crazy to think that GNU/Linux could reach a point where it is chosen over Windows. I think kernel level anti-cheat will be gone with how much backlash it's receiving, and FOSS software will be good enough for people to swap to or at least give a chance. We could also see the real "rise of the Linux Desktop" since by then, both Windows 10 and 11 will be EOL, and Microsoft will continue to push forced ads, forced updates, and remain as slow and sluggish as it is currently.
My prediction for 10 years not 30: more voice interfaces less desktop. Windows in gutter. Specialized OSes based on Linux go mainstream
Everything will be controlled by AI in the future except Linux.
I hope to god you're right about AI Matt. I hate it and I feel it's totally a gimmick. It's also horrible for the planet with the amount of power it takes to run it. Sick of having it shoved down my throat. The original Gateway is not in business anymore, it's just a brand another manufacturer slaps on generic computers.
governments choosing linux face the angry army of self entitled workers who would refuse to change and probaly call in the union because its unfair for them
In 30 years everything for the mainstream consumer will be SoC, including our understanding of the PC paradigm as it increasingly makes less and less sense to have unintegrated components like PCIe and DDR. It sucks, but we DIY'ers aren't a big enough market to buoy the modular consumer desktop PC's industry relevance. The question is if it will be as challenging to replace the systems on small compute clients as it is to change Android roms _(Oh, you can't unlock the bootloader and even if you did you have no drivers anyways? Guess you're stuck with this system software until we stop supporting it and you have to buy a new one)_, or will we actually start to depend more on Apple-like hardware for software stability like with Asahi?
I predict that the hacker spirit will still be there, but we're going to see a shift from Linux being "Unix-like" to custom kernels for SoC's being "Linux-like." It will stop being less about distro fragmentation of Linux, and more about kernel fragmentation.
Linux will be in the same place it was 30 years ago and in the same place it is now - a scattered mess with delusions of grandeur, broken and irrelevant on the desktop, and lousy for anything other than vehicle entertainment systems, web servers, and cell phones. Linux just simply never delivered n any of it's promises with one single exception - it allowed corporations to maximize profits by not having to pay developers.