i have the WORST record with tipsters :D any horse accas ive won have been trebles or 4 race accas EW picking 4 winners should be lottery odds ! weirdly the best result i ever had was the bet 365 free bets at cheltenham - blew my 50 free :/ but won EVERY DAY on the £5 free bet by lowering expectations & taking the any profit is profit route . Ok a 4/1 @ 10 quid isnt life changing but kept the lights on that month :)
Legislation needs to be brought in to prevent Bookmakers limiting or closing accounts because someone knows what they're doing and getting wins. It's also common knowledge that 8 out of 10 times when there's an 8 card field they take one horse out preventing punters from getting a third place result. A seven horse race only pays out 1st and 2nd. It is already after happening in todays UK racing. I don't know how the arrangement is done between trainers and bookmakers but it's definitely happening. It seriously needs looking into.
@@guillembauza1658 But it's OK to just take money of lossers but cancel winners account ya ? It should be illegal . Would a casino kick you out just because you are winning ? No they wouldn't. There are risks on both sides and bookmakers should not be allowed to manipulate the business in their favor.
That pulling a horse out with 8 runners has been done for years though,, back when I started betting on horses around 2010 it was used and I use to chuckle when it convienently happened. Just back 3 places on the exchange to cover that typical eventuality. But they will never legislate to allow winners its obvious.. all this “wellbeing” stuff is just a justification for the bookies to basically do as they please, and gives them a “we do help” load of tripe messaging. Its all bullsh!t and you can be damn sure they arent bothered about our wellbeing because they dont ask for squat when it comes to their casino sites.
The end of the day a bookmaker would prefer you’d follow a tipster and be reliant on others than going on your own initiative and not keeping your eye on what you should be keeping it on, real information. There is no real money to be made following somebody else, if there is any lesson to be made from Andy Holding is the work he puts in.
Dave Nevison and Rory Delargy, are the only two, that I ever listen to. Holding is probably the best of the rest. Most of these so-called 'experts', would struggle to survive, without their media work
Dave Nevison is good, i also liked James Willoughby when he was the speed rating's specialist at the racing post before he became there chief correspondent but that is going back a few decades ago now. Clive Holt was another one i used to respect before his passing in the mid 2000's .
I've been betting on horses for over a decade and today I learned what NAP stands for. Side note, I don't assume that the market has horses priced correctly at SP, there is value to be had in the market because of biases that result in horses being over or under backed. There is still some value to be had taking the odds offered in shops, it's rare but with so many races it happens a couple times a week.
Betfair closed my account for no reason...gave everything for verification to get the reply sorry we can't unlock your account, the decision is irreversible. Asked for why it's been blocked to get same message. Again never bet over few quid but only bet when I'm confident in the bet. All within the 2 months.
Great,informative and fair video as usual. What I find annoying is the professional punter claim when he has at least three other sources of income- Oddschecker,Andy Holding speed figures and William Hill racing radio , he certainly likes an each way bet . What I found puzzling was that after a very disappointing Cheltenham I looked at his speed figures website where Coraigh Rambler and Coole Cody were big priced advertised winners, there were no mention of these on Oddschecker or on his Oddschecker Cheltenham previews. Obviously he doesn't like taking his own advice!
I don't see any issues with him having multiple streams of income, although agree with everything you say there. To be promoting sportsbooks that won't take a bet, and especially at that time, or even worse - Hills. Seems a bit off.
@@CaanBerryProTrader Thanks for the reply. He does say on one of his videos that being a ' professional punter ' you don't have a safety net but he has three. I think he should stick to the term 'professional pundit ' which is more accurate.
As an experiment I started following his tips. Just betting to level stakes and not backing each way, he has been profitable. +55 pts over 10 weeks at BSP including 3 losing weeks
I did a similar experiment between Jan and March this year with Oddscheckers other horse tipster (after noting his advertised success in 2021), and found the ‘daily’ profit/loss points totals are rarely updated within 24hrs when they are losses. Sometimes a few days! I actually emailed them the once to remind them he was in a negative position rather than the profit they advertised, which they duly updated that same day. As soon as he got winners however, boom! advertise and update the figures the same day! Terrible and false advertising to the average person who goes into the app every now and then.
Good work Caan. Statistics really help to clarify trends and outcomes. Really interesting how quick the account was gagged up by the sports book even with low stakes.
I'm sure it was because he was matching a knowing tipsters tips along with a bunch of other punters with their book. Easy for their systems to identify that after a while and books are so cautious around it they even specifically reference this in their terms and conditions rather than just loosely cover it with a blanket statement.
I did a big back check on him some time ago. Fairly sure I did more selections than you had in a month. I definitely came back with a negative result and i am assuming that i used betfair odds. Just because you get the value it doesn't mean you will get a long term win, the selections have to be ok too.
How far back did you go? I think maybe variance on his side over a month but can't say without seeing a far larger sample. Unfortunately I couldn't find anywhere with a big list of previous selections and their data. Seems lots of the tipping sites do this - no record. Would of thought they'd be keen to share that...
@@CaanBerryProTrader used his Twitter feed, went back far enough to establish it was a non runner. Cannot remember exactly how far though, will see if I can find some of my scribblings later.
if your taking value all the time yes you will win in the long run if you you was taking 2.1 odds on a coin flip you would be getting 0.1 value out of that and continueing to bet on that with many samples will 100% result in EV being in the plus its pretty simple math really, finding value is the hard part
Hi Caan. The thing is with these results, or even a sample over a full year or two, is that there is scarcely any statistical significance in them whatsoever. Run a p test on them, and it would probably show something like 1 in 3 punters could get those results with luck alone, especially if they are long odds. My own research on selections with average odds of 7.0 showed an 8% edge after commission, over about 1500 bets ("oh yeah! I'm going to be rich!"). Fast forward a few months to when I had 5000 bets and I was in the red ("nooooooooo!!!! back to work!"). At high odds like most horse racing bets are, upwards of 5000 or even 10000+ results are needed to ensure statistical significance.
Didn’t know he was about speed ratings. I like looking at previous run times for all weather since the going is more repeatable than turf. Get the ace course win time then compare it to horse prev run times. You may see a larger price that has had a previous fast time You can hunt for prev run times or, there is a service that complies the cards for you every day for £10 Maybe do e/w on the larger price or Dutch 3 fast horses.
it always strikes me as a bit of a thankless task being a tipster. i guess with holding he has free reign to tip when and where he wants but these paper tipsters who have to come up with a horse for every race seems like hard work.
Probably a fair comment. Thing is tipping doesn't work because edges only last a short period of time - unless you're on the inside of some kind of coup like Patrick Vietch or Barney Curley. But many would consider that cheating rather than being sharp.
@@CaanBerryProTrader Very true. I had a couple of pals who got involved with Isiris years ago (the name of the guy who ran it escapes me, a bit of an oddball) but they soon realised they could not get on for full stakes on phone accounts (often told sp only) and had to be in the bookies calling the number constantly waithing for the message to drop to have any chance of getting on at advised price. It wasn't really practical doing that every day. The guy did pick winners but as you say the "edge" didn't last long. From what I remember it was quite expensive to subscribe too.
It's unfair to say that his BSP results should be close to zero. The efficiency of BSP is misunderstood. Horse A has BSP of 3.0, true odds 2.0. Horse B has a BSP of 3.0, true odds 4.0. Together, they are efficient, individually the tipsters advising horse A are much better than those advising horse B.
Sky are absolute crap on all their betting sites! I was banned from their Sky Vegas promotions for simply having the daily free spin on their “Prize Machine” game! And I had noticed that was going downhill anyway as the wins ( normally a miserly 10p bonus ) had become less and less frequent.
Very information Caan. I subscribe to Andy's site , although I do not use his tips. IMO the stats provided on his site are extremely helpful and very thorough and produce me a lot of high value winners, however it does take a while to get your head around them.
I will take on that challenge anytime! Of picking winners to win and higher prices win and place and am happy to do 30 days starting from whenever you want. Kind regards. Darren. Exchange betting only
Considering it..but happy to send for 30 days. if you have an email address please send and will send you two winners lists everyday for you to track for 30 days based on winners 4-1 and under and e/w 9/2 and over. Regards
Despite the massive loss I bet he was still advertising monthly profit every month excluding losing stakes, most bets would lose, at best the profit he claims to make were probably just him making his money back from all the losing stakes
Tipster checklist: BOOM when u get a winner, but skip the losers. Delete losing tips, Dont back your own tips. Make a fake spreadsheet showing units/profit, insteading of showing your profit/loss statement from the betting website. Have a paid vip telegram, or affiliate link. Icing on the cake… Have 1000s of sheep followers who will copy you losing bets.. Rinse n Repeat 😂
Don't forget incessant use of the 🤑🤑🤑🤑 emoji.. and thinking they're a god for picking 10 Norwegian footy game in a row to have a goal in the last 30 mins at 4/11 😂
Here's a rough example of negative feedback as explained by Timeform for there telephone tips many years ago. Graded stakes to max stake 100 pounds on even money. At Sporting life odds +6000. At best odds on course. +4000. At SP returned. +2000. AND in thoes days 4% On course tax.
Few things to bear in mind caan when you make these video's . Andy holden and many other racing professionals that appear daily on William hill racing radio are unbelievably absorbed in the sport of horse racing on a 24hr basis all year round . There knowledge of all known formlines on any horse race be it flat turf . Jumps or all weather or indeed sometimes globally is astounding given the amount of effort and race reading / race watching that goes into having this knowledge. You should maybe one day set aside a few hours to actually listen to a days racing continuously on W.H radio and you will be able to tell how genuinely consumed their regular guests are extremely genuine and extremely hardworking at trying to attain for themselves a LONG TERM profit with which to make a living . It is nigh on impossible to predict the winner of most horse races unless you have done your research to some degree and that research in uk racing is never ending due to the high input of racing in general. These guys such as Andy holding i am sure that they would make a very good living just working on there own methods through experience, enthusiasm and sheer love for the sport in both codes . If these people make an extra income just by being employed by 3rd parties such as William hill radio then they are at least attempting to lock in some kind of earnings aside from there self employment. You are a trader yeah. Believe me , i have no affiliation to andy holding or any other William hill radio pundit but i am certain that the said enthusiasm, expertise and pure love for the game would make your trading profit seem like childs play 😂😂 Maybe you should invit Andy to trade alongside you for a saturday afternoon of racing . Now that i would love 2 see .
But how would AH make money when the prices posted are unatainable (accounts closed or no liquidity). Believe what you like mate but if you stop and look at what you're saying it's quite ludicrous. More than likely William Hill tell him what they want him to say like all the other pundits! It's all very mumbo jumbo this "I have a feeling" and put money down. Professionals don't do that, it's value, pattern analysis and math. Or maybe you believe Tony Bloom is a billionaire because he has an eye for people that have an eye for players that know how to kick a ball more than the rest of the world, companies included with billions of pounds at their desposable.
Like i said Caan . Invite him around to your gaff to trade one Saturday afternoon if he is free . These people are so knowledgeable in respect of form and form lines and all other aspects of the horseracing industry in the UK that bookmakers use these people as " Marks " The bookmakers allow the " Marks ' to place there bets because then the bookmakers can alter their prices accordingly based on what these informed people are putting there money on . As for you and andy trading together for example .. let's say a bookmaker has a particular horse is priced up around 9/2 in the Morning yeah. Someone with Andy's knowledge would know that this horse would start the race at 9/4 for example or 7/1 . He would know where the public's betting mentality lies regarding the expected chances of a horse regards form , going , course , distance, breeding, etc etc . He would know this through his sheer enthusiasm and genuine constant labour of love for the game . Stop trading one day next week at ascot or on any weekday or Saturday and instead spend the afternoon actually listening to William hill radio pundits who are based in there own homes and not in an office together . I will not for one moment defend bookmakers , but i can respect someone who has the commitment and dedication to study form 7 days a week 52 weeks a year wether it be flat racing , all weather or national hunt and be able to remember everything they read , analyse and watch ... Its an almost impossible task .
Think maybe you've been listening to the bookie affiliate channels a bit too much mate. The "marks" you mention were definately a thing though, about 20 years ago.
Anybody who uses bookies to bet is a losing punter in the long run....the reason being if you win long term at the bookies they'll restrict you or close you down ..when are guys gonna realise this 🙈
@@sophiesworld4240 The point is if they close you down, its because they have identified patterns that suggest you have a winning strategy. They shut down the winners. If your account remains open and you can bet unlimited, they love you because you're the classic mug punter.
Ye, was a real rattle of winners mid-month. Would be interesting to follow for a year but that's a lot of hassle as no public record of selections to backdate!
I'm impressed he was still rocking a profit over a reasonable sample. Wonder if it could be maintained on this basis for a year plus? Given the horses tended to go off at lower odds than advised, does it suggest that a tipster with bigger reach will influence enough people to back their tips and a result influence the price? Such that there would be an opportunity to back them asap when published and lay to lock in profit closer to the off?
I was too! Not sure, there's no record in public available unfortunately... not that I could see anyway. I don't think he was influencing the market as the moves come far later in the day and the prices tended to be stagnant at the time the tips were released. For those who do affect pricing that could be an option for them though certainly.
Hi, as a full time trader on the exchange do you have to have a business bank account to do this? or is your bank ok with large withdrawals from betfair going into a standard bank account / betfair exchange being main source of income into bank?
Holly emailed the support too and got a full answer. In short, you don't need a business account unless you're using someone elses money and running the betting as a business in the UK. It may bring extra questions to your door but as long as you can prove you won the money you'll be okay, for those who are using many different accounts to arb etc it may raise more questions at the bank if they do a AML review.
Hey Caan woud you profit lay betting the tips? Just a thought when I looked at your results. You may loose more than your stake lay betting so maybe use some kind of recovery stake plan ??
Cool, OLBG banned me from their forum for talking about bookie restrictions. If that's anything to go by, I suspect they wouldnt allow winning tipsters as it would hurt their affiliate revenue.
Thank you for this video. It was really interesting. I hope you can do one on the Football tipsters £15- to 1k, they seem to be everywhere these days 👍
Don't really know what to say in terms of knocking Holdsworth not sure I want to say, apart from his home decor and fashion sense. However what he does he is good at and you could make a few quid doubling up in the shops on his tips. I don't and never have used them or will. But it was an interesting video to watch.
I tried multiple premium tipsters, even if they had 95-100% winning months on reputable sites I always lost everything following them. You always think the bad run will end and stick with it but the bad run never ends.
Great work Caan. I have been matched betting for 1yr and have made enough to consider using this as a trading pot. I have watched most of your football videos on your channel. It seems like good football opportunities are a lot less frequent than horse racing. As a beginner what are my chances of getting to grips with horse race trading if I know nothing about it (besides match betting)? Personally, horses would be more practical as there are good racing opportunities throughout the day as opposed to football which is mostly evenings and weekends. Should I really stick to sports which I have a better understanding of or is it more a case of understand the principles of trading and price versus teams, players and form and you can apply it to any sport?
The two market types are totally different beasts. With football the positions are far more scaleable and the edge is of a smaller margin with less subjectivity. With the horses its the other way around, opportuities are ten-a-peny, but you can't stake 10k and trade it on ordinary races. Maybe Cheltenham or Royal Ascot but not the normal horse races.
If you do another video like this in the future would it be possible to compare the tipster to a random pick? I don't really know much about horse racing/betting so I don't know if that would be doable
@@CaanBerryProTrader I believe by random pick , he is wanting to ascertain how a so called pro punter fares against a random chance type scenario. I.E. using a pin prick whilst blindfolded methodology or what i would prefer but takes a bit more time is , put all the race horse names in a hat and select one. Then compare how the randomised test did against which ever pro tipster you are comparing them to.
So many variables when trying to pick a winner , the trainer , the jockey and their strike percentage at certain tracks, horses pedigree over certain distances , the ground, have they been recently gelded, throat operations for better breathing , longest travellers and that’s just scratching the surface, my preferred jockeys are Holly Doyle, Wm Buick , Tom Marquand on the flat and any Irish raider going to Scottish or English tracks for the jumps especially the Cheltenham festival , never bet more than you can afford to lose and see it as a form of entertainment, only the bookies get rich from gambling .
I wish for a video for "slow minded" people. Like step by step video, what progam do you use? Maybe show a live bet you make and win? These numbers and statistics are to fast and makes my head go boom :3
If Andy claims he can make a living backing his tips why doesn't he do it instead of selling them? He is just an affiliate for bookmakers. He must know he will get a better price on an exchange so there is no reason to advise someone to bet with a bookmaker unless he is being paid to do it.
@@CaanBerryProTrader What i mean is if he persuades a lot of people to back his tips the price will crash. He would be better off telling nobody and backing them himself.
So basically if you back their tips and yield a profit the random “more documentation is required” is triggered and its under the justification of a “problem gambler alert”... very convienent all that verification check and wellbeing nonsense eh. Meanwhile they dont ask for a shred of cardboard if you play on their casino site... funny that.
Yup. You got it... exchanges is the only exception because they don't care who wins. But then once you're 250k up the likes of Betfair hit you with a super-charge. There's a vid about it on the channel.
As someone - like many i suspect - who has a flutter on the grand national or any horse Frankie Dettori is riding and Gosden has trained, i was attracted to this video after it was displayed on the right hand panel of suggested viewing to the one i just finished watching. After watching it a second time and still not understanding or following what on earth you were going on about i thought i'd politely ask. Do i have to watch any other tutorial videos you put out before this video, you know, like learning the jargon used in this video. Have i jumped too far ahead in a sequence of 10? Or have i, as i suspect, stumbled on the "serious" side of gambling and why we have gambling addicts? Those who, after seeing ALL the evidence STILL think they can beat the betting shop and recoup their losses "with the next bet". So, in this industry i can put myself up as an "EXPERT" with - at best - a 30% strike rate huh? Nope not in my book you're not. Tip of the day, "Keep your money in your pocket".
Try the ladbrokes 5* nap of day tbh I don’t no who picks it or what it would work to a profit or loss but I think they not bad if any I have tried am not sure if it’s the same as the racing posts nap of day but hey 2 any 1 out there am not sayin ull make a profit . My advise 2 any1 is DONT GAMBLE IN 1ST PLACE. As in long run the only winner will ever be bookie as He Tells u here as they will suspend u if u win to much
Bookies have such big margins you're very unlikely to beat them. In the event you do, you get banned as per my other videos. Would look at exchanges if you want value.
@@CaanBerryProTrader Here’s what makes me laugh if the favourite of the grand national wins like in previous years and it’s been back the headline news is THE BOOKMAKERS HAVE LOST 20MILLION COZ THE FAV WON 😳 Why don’t they put everyday headline the punters lose 50 million every other day though 😂 They are the biggest crooks legal on the streets bookmakers
Asking for subcription fee makes one wonder, if horses came in the winnings would far excede sub fees? 25 years of betting it feels to me that no matter how good statistic analysis is, there's a few unobtainable factors that trump them anyway, off hand; Mood of horse on day. Jockeys deliberately not trying or even throwing the race. Random events such as a bad start or loose horse getting in way or horse getting bumped. Also as mentioned, pulling a horse out of field of 8 so there's only 2 places, although there are betting ways around this. Not to mention getting rule 4'd because certain horses are declared NR. Loads of other gripes too.
I used to follow a few tipping services but now just the 1 I use 2021 results are 257 points profit £2570 for a £10 stake good enough return on a £1000 starting bank
Just bet on the queen’s horses all I gotta say 68% +/- you can get a return i.e making the frame 1st 2nd or 3rd started doing it this year , for this season her stables are at around 73%
I don't understand the obsession with "beating the SP". Of course you are right about the long term profitability, but how much are you really making and how long before you get cut off? Surely the more efficient approach is to find the winners that drift? That way you know you're not competing with the market on price and chances are bookmakers might - no guarantees - keep you around longer if you're not just backing anything that shortens in the market. Some times the most logical way to profit is to approach things in a very non-logical way.
The BSP is crucial, it's the best benchmark we have for value. If you bet with a bookmaker you will get cut off longterm unless you are losing, it's that simple. The hundreds of millions multiple gambling companies make each year is piled into stopping people from winning. Short-term its easy enough to beat them, but you won't do it on drifters... because they aren't bigger than the BSP either. Doing things to try and keep an account alive is pretty much a waste of time once you consider the effort involved. Far eaiser to take them for what you can and move on, or use the exchanges. Obviously premium charges with that if you're any good.
@@CaanBerryProTrader Yeah those are two I have used. Just think there might be a different pressure if you're charging for tips. Andy Holding can just turn around and say I'm doing this for nowt so don't complain etc.
i go for form and how many horses in the race,if i see a form record of 2-5863 and there were over 8 runners in each race that means the horse is due a win,i back horses outside 10-1 so even if it places i win on a EW bet,Also Trainers in form and Good Jockeys play a part too....Bless
Plenty of the best are unheard of. For example; there was a guy who used to write for the Weekender who came in at around 170% one year - and when you bear in mind that, due to the nature of the product, many of his bets were at SP, that’s eye-watering. Mythical even? I doubt no more than a handful of people know, read or remember the article.
Why are you assuming that the profit to BFSP should be close to zero? Yes BFSP is quite accurate over very large sample sizes but that certainly doesn't mean you cannot make long-term profit straight betting at Betfair SP. You just have to find a strategy that consistently throws up under-bet selections. I used to think that you couldn't make profit at Betfair SP but I was wrong. So I wouldn't assume that if I were you. I now realise that even though the Betfair SP is accurate over large sample sizes that is because the good and bad value bets just cancel each other out. I now believe on an individual race by race basis the SP is not particularly accurate and that is probably largely to do with mass psychology but also just plain luck.... for instance lots of people jumping onto a gamble or placing a bet on something at the same time pushing it artificially low just before the off, and pushing others out. So if he is genuinely identifying value bets based on the times or whatever he uses to calculate them, then its perfectly possible it's not being adequately factored into the market price and so could well be that he makes a consistent profit at Betfair SP. Although that said, as this is quite mainstream stuff I'd also not be at all surprised if he doesn't.
I'm not assuming, it's a mathmatical fact over very large samples. However, I take your point over short-term samples and agree there are opportunities at BSP in some instances. I think the fact it was profitable at ISP here also shows clearly that variance was on his side :)
It seems a bit disingenuous to say you're 'genuinely curious' about finding out the results as if it will be in any way revealing. 30 days worth of any tipsters selections isn't going to give you anything conclusive, and I think a pro trader would already know that.
If you know where I can find an extensive record I'd love to see it. The problem is these services don't list results or prove prices - maybe that tells us all what we need to know. Would have though they want to share a winning record like.
I’m Having a problem with a certain online bookies every time I cash out a decent sum they are askin for documents and with holding my withdrawals, but are quick enough still to take deposits on the account absolute scum all of them anythin to stop you from winning
I've been betting horses 50 yrs....any idiot can give a 3.40 horse. Quick harness story on tips...famous driver his initials H.F. was on a guy I knows horse...guy goes to bet his horse to win and the teller say you going with your horse , guy say yea, teller tells him H.F. aint....so much for tips. Imagine the driver doing his own move, came back 4th told the owner next week.....lol
@@CaanBerryProTrader I did, maybe you are a bit too cynical for your own good. Andy Holding is one of the good guys. He challenges the bookies, racecourses, and the BHA in all his media outings. Maybe he is too genuine for his own good. What your video showed is that he is an excellent tipster and a good judge. He is not being told what races to recommend tips on, he is putting up his best bets for the day.. When you start attacking Andy Holding and Oddschecker I think you must have run out of targets.
Good guys? 7 tips a day sending people to sportsbooks that only take bets from losers and restrict winners - that he doesn't mention. Please explain... What I showed was that variance fell on his side for 30 days and the prices he puts up don't get any more than a few quid matched - if they do and they beat SP you get restricted, all of which he doesn't mention. Not attacking anyone, just making the point.
@@CaanBerryProTrader My comment was a bit of dis on Jamie Spencer's riding, holding his horses up, bringing them late and being done on the line. I've won some money laying some red hot Jamie Spencer rides.
The truth is if you have time on your hands and know what you're looking at then you should be able to make money, BUT, if you listen to these tipsters you'll inevitably lose. Like most things in life, the more you put into something the more you'll get out of it. Simple as that.
Certainly not gutted, it's important to fairly record. Although sending people to places they can only lose under the guise of winning whist understanding the system doesn't change my overall opinion.
Could you do more videos following tipsters. OLBG is a platform I used. I made a portfolio of tipsters with 5 general sports tipsters as a foundation for the 2-3 horse racing tipsters with a lower strike rate. Made 300% roi on Bet 365 then got banned. BSP is interesting but didn't have the liquidity or many handball ice hockey markets available. Would be interesting to see if there's an angle for BSP following a Tipster Portfolio
So called sports picks and racing tips are the biggest con job of all time as I have been burned so many times in the past it's not funny. I say fuck them all to hell , look at the opening odds and do your own form. I layed a horse in the UK just last week previous run wins at 40/1 next start I layed the mule at 5/1 horse was second last in field of 7 , look at prices they run with bit of form as nobody out there gives you any tips like this I gaurantee anybody this, good luck all.
Becaue getting an edge or advantage doesn't last long. Sometimes an hour or two, sometimes seconds. Pro's don't tip for this reason - it's always about price (which is alwasy changing).
Find out how to beat the house in this follow-up video: ua-cam.com/video/AJEM2_3QJSs/v-deo.html
Caan - the screen @ 01:50. Where is it from please? I can't seem to find historical BSP's anywhere. Keep up the great work.
i have the WORST record with tipsters :D any horse accas ive won have been trebles or 4 race accas EW picking 4 winners should be lottery odds ! weirdly the best result i ever had was the bet 365 free bets at cheltenham - blew my 50 free :/ but won EVERY DAY on the £5 free bet by lowering expectations & taking the any profit is profit route . Ok a 4/1 @ 10 quid isnt life changing but kept the lights on that month :)
@@pcgrieves5166 Timeform, you need an account and logged in though (its free).
@@CaanBerryProTrader thanks Caan - didn't expect the magical word 'free'.
Hi. I am sports many loss betting please help me prediction help me bro
Legislation needs to be brought in to prevent Bookmakers limiting or closing accounts because someone knows what they're doing and getting wins. It's also common knowledge that 8 out of 10 times when there's an 8 card field they take one horse out preventing punters from getting a third place result. A seven horse race only pays out 1st and 2nd. It is already after happening in todays UK racing. I don't know how the arrangement is done between trainers and bookmakers but it's definitely happening. It seriously needs looking into.
It’s all about knowing when not to bet, Bernard Manning, never bet on a race that doesn’t pay 3rd.
Why would they want to keep consistent winners? That legislation will never happen.
I couldn't agree more. Doubt it will happen though in reality... govt profits from them winning.
@@guillembauza1658 But it's OK to just take money of lossers but cancel winners account ya ? It should be illegal . Would a casino kick you out just because you are winning ? No they wouldn't. There are risks on both sides and bookmakers should not be allowed to manipulate the business in their favor.
That pulling a horse out with 8 runners has been done for years though,, back when I started betting on horses around 2010 it was used and I use to chuckle when it convienently happened. Just back 3 places on the exchange to cover that typical eventuality. But they will never legislate to allow winners its obvious.. all this “wellbeing” stuff is just a justification for the bookies to basically do as they please, and gives them a “we do help” load of tripe messaging. Its all bullsh!t and you can be damn sure they arent bothered about our wellbeing because they dont ask for squat when it comes to their casino sites.
The end of the day a bookmaker would prefer you’d follow a tipster and be reliant on others than going on your own initiative and not keeping your eye on what you should be keeping it on, real information.
There is no real money to be made following somebody else, if there is any lesson to be made from Andy Holding is the work he puts in.
Dave Nevison and Rory Delargy, are the only two, that I ever listen to. Holding is probably the best of the rest. Most of these so-called 'experts', would struggle to survive, without their media work
Dave Nevison is good, i also liked James Willoughby when he was the speed rating's specialist at the racing post before he became there chief correspondent but that is going back a few decades ago now. Clive Holt was another one i used to respect before his passing in the mid 2000's .
I've been betting on horses for over a decade and today I learned what NAP stands for. Side note, I don't assume that the market has horses priced correctly at SP, there is value to be had in the market because of biases that result in horses being over or under backed. There is still some value to be had taking the odds offered in shops, it's rare but with so many races it happens a couple times a week.
Haha, not that it'll help your betting but always interesting to know these things.
Ditto. Though 20+ years betting. Always thought it was nap hand.
How did it take you so long to understand what the NAP was on a race card !!!!!!!!! ?
A couple of times a week lol
Betfair closed my account for no reason...gave everything for verification to get the reply sorry we can't unlock your account, the decision is irreversible. Asked for why it's been blocked to get same message. Again never bet over few quid but only bet when I'm confident in the bet. All within the 2 months.
Great,informative and fair video as usual. What I find annoying is the professional punter claim when he has at least three other sources of income- Oddschecker,Andy Holding speed figures and William Hill racing radio , he certainly likes an each way bet . What I found puzzling was that after a very disappointing Cheltenham I looked at his speed figures website where Coraigh Rambler and Coole Cody were big priced advertised winners, there were no mention of these on Oddschecker or on his Oddschecker Cheltenham previews. Obviously he doesn't like taking his own advice!
I don't see any issues with him having multiple streams of income, although agree with everything you say there. To be promoting sportsbooks that won't take a bet, and especially at that time, or even worse - Hills. Seems a bit off.
@@CaanBerryProTrader Thanks for the reply. He does say on one of his videos that being a ' professional punter ' you don't have a safety net but he has three. I think he should stick to the term 'professional pundit ' which is more accurate.
As an experiment I started following his tips. Just betting to level stakes and not backing each way, he has been profitable. +55 pts over 10 weeks at BSP including 3 losing weeks
Hot air and horse racing wallpaper, classic!
I did a similar experiment between Jan and March this year with Oddscheckers other horse tipster (after noting his advertised success in 2021), and found the ‘daily’ profit/loss points totals are rarely updated within 24hrs when they are losses. Sometimes a few days! I actually emailed them the once to remind them he was in a negative position rather than the profit they advertised, which they duly updated that same day.
As soon as he got winners however, boom! advertise and update the figures the same day! Terrible and false advertising to the average person who goes into the app every now and then.
Well... this video was a lot more positive than I expected
Credit where it's due and all that :)
Good work Caan. Statistics really help to clarify trends and outcomes. Really interesting how quick the account was gagged up by the sports book even with low stakes.
Just the modern world right now isn't it, they all want endless data to make use of :)
I'm sure it was because he was matching a knowing tipsters tips along with a bunch of other punters with their book. Easy for their systems to identify that after a while and books are so cautious around it they even specifically reference this in their terms and conditions rather than just loosely cover it with a blanket statement.
Good video caan 200000 subscribers here we come
Haha
I did a big back check on him some time ago. Fairly sure I did more selections than you had in a month. I definitely came back with a negative result and i am assuming that i used betfair odds. Just because you get the value it doesn't mean you will get a long term win, the selections have to be ok too.
How far back did you go? I think maybe variance on his side over a month but can't say without seeing a far larger sample. Unfortunately I couldn't find anywhere with a big list of previous selections and their data. Seems lots of the tipping sites do this - no record. Would of thought they'd be keen to share that...
@@CaanBerryProTrader used his Twitter feed, went back far enough to establish it was a non runner. Cannot remember exactly how far though, will see if I can find some of my scribblings later.
if your taking value all the time yes you will win in the long run if you you was taking 2.1 odds on a coin flip you would be getting 0.1 value out of that and continueing to bet on that with many samples will 100% result in EV being in the plus its pretty simple math really, finding value is the hard part
@@tomjones9934 but your a dingle, dog head, scrap metal dealer.
You wouldn’t understand.
@Crispy Critter
Actually you would be making 0.05 out of that, since you lose half of the time. 5% edge.
Hi Caan. The thing is with these results, or even a sample over a full year or two, is that there is scarcely any statistical significance in them whatsoever. Run a p test on them, and it would probably show something like 1 in 3 punters could get those results with luck alone, especially if they are long odds. My own research on selections with average odds of 7.0 showed an 8% edge after commission, over about 1500 bets ("oh yeah! I'm going to be rich!"). Fast forward a few months to when I had 5000 bets and I was in the red ("nooooooooo!!!! back to work!"). At high odds like most horse racing bets are, upwards of 5000 or even 10000+ results are needed to ensure statistical significance.
Didn’t know he was about speed ratings. I like looking at previous run times for all weather since the going is more repeatable than turf. Get the ace course win time then compare it to horse prev run times. You may see a larger price that has had a previous fast time
You can hunt for prev run times or, there is a service that complies the cards for you every day for £10
Maybe do e/w on the larger price or Dutch 3 fast horses.
I consider similar things to you as well
it always strikes me as a bit of a thankless task being a tipster. i guess with holding he has free reign to tip when and where he wants but these paper tipsters who have to come up with a horse for every race seems like hard work.
Probably a fair comment. Thing is tipping doesn't work because edges only last a short period of time - unless you're on the inside of some kind of coup like Patrick Vietch or Barney Curley. But many would consider that cheating rather than being sharp.
@@CaanBerryProTrader Very true. I had a couple of pals who got involved with Isiris years ago (the name of the guy who ran it escapes me, a bit of an oddball) but they soon realised they could not get on for full stakes on phone accounts (often told sp only) and had to be in the bookies calling the number constantly waithing for the message to drop to have any chance of getting on at advised price. It wasn't really practical doing that every day. The guy did pick winners but as you say the "edge" didn't last long. From what I remember it was quite expensive to subscribe too.
Being a tipster is very hard indeed, but I will launch a fav laying service in the coming months and I will be the most famous fav layer :)
Good video, Caan.
Glad you enjoyed it
It's unfair to say that his BSP results should be close to zero. The efficiency of BSP is misunderstood. Horse A has BSP of 3.0, true odds 2.0. Horse B has a BSP of 3.0, true odds 4.0. Together, they are efficient, individually the tipsters advising horse A are much better than those advising horse B.
Sky are absolute crap on all their betting sites! I was banned from their Sky Vegas promotions for simply having the daily free spin on their “Prize Machine” game! And I had noticed that was going downhill anyway as the wins ( normally a miserly 10p bonus ) had become less and less frequent.
Very information Caan. I subscribe to Andy's site , although I do not use his tips. IMO the stats provided on his site are extremely helpful and very thorough and produce me a lot of high value winners, however it does take a while to get your head around them.
Thanks for the info!
I will take on that challenge anytime! Of picking winners to win and higher prices win and place and am happy to do 30 days starting from whenever you want. Kind regards. Darren. Exchange betting only
Nice, you have a service?
Considering it..but happy to send for 30 days.
if you have an email address please send and will send you two winners lists everyday for you to track for 30 days based on winners 4-1 and under and e/w 9/2 and over. Regards
I followed his tips for 3 months.Massive loss.
Know anywhere with an extensive record over a larger sample?
Despite the massive loss I bet he was still advertising monthly profit every month excluding losing stakes, most bets would lose, at best the profit he claims to make were probably just him making his money back from all the losing stakes
Tipster checklist: BOOM when u get a winner, but skip the losers. Delete losing tips, Dont back your own tips. Make a fake spreadsheet showing units/profit, insteading of showing your profit/loss statement from the betting website. Have a paid vip telegram, or affiliate link. Icing on the cake… Have 1000s of sheep followers who will copy you losing bets.. Rinse n Repeat 😂
You forgot get aggressive and threaten bans to anyone who questions it, then everyone gets so scared of getting banned that they back up the admin
Ohh so much truth in that!
Don't forget incessant use of the 🤑🤑🤑🤑 emoji.. and thinking they're a god for picking 10 Norwegian footy game in a row to have a goal in the last 30 mins at 4/11 😂
Here's a rough example of negative feedback as explained by Timeform for there telephone tips many years ago.
Graded stakes to max stake 100 pounds on even money.
At Sporting life odds
+6000.
At best odds on course.
+4000.
At SP returned.
+2000.
AND in thoes days 4%
On course tax.
Few things to bear in mind caan when you make these video's . Andy holden and many other racing professionals that appear daily on William hill racing radio are unbelievably absorbed in the sport of horse racing on a 24hr basis all year round . There knowledge of all known formlines on any horse race be it flat turf . Jumps or all weather or indeed sometimes globally is astounding given the amount of effort and race reading / race watching that goes into having this knowledge. You should maybe one day set aside a few hours to actually listen to a days racing continuously on W.H radio and you will be able to tell how genuinely consumed their regular guests are extremely genuine and extremely hardworking at trying to attain for themselves a LONG TERM profit with which to make a living .
It is nigh on impossible to predict the winner of most horse races unless you have done your research to some degree and that research in uk racing is never ending due to the high input of racing in general.
These guys such as Andy holding i am sure that they would make a very good living just working on there own methods through experience, enthusiasm and sheer love for the sport in both codes .
If these people make an extra income just by being employed by 3rd parties such as William hill radio then they are at least attempting to lock in some kind of earnings aside from there self employment.
You are a trader yeah. Believe me , i have no affiliation to andy holding or any other William hill radio pundit but i am certain that the said enthusiasm, expertise and pure love for the game would make your trading profit seem like childs play 😂😂
Maybe you should invit Andy to trade alongside you for a saturday afternoon of racing . Now that i would love 2 see .
But how would AH make money when the prices posted are unatainable (accounts closed or no liquidity). Believe what you like mate but if you stop and look at what you're saying it's quite ludicrous. More than likely William Hill tell him what they want him to say like all the other pundits! It's all very mumbo jumbo this "I have a feeling" and put money down. Professionals don't do that, it's value, pattern analysis and math. Or maybe you believe Tony Bloom is a billionaire because he has an eye for people that have an eye for players that know how to kick a ball more than the rest of the world, companies included with billions of pounds at their desposable.
Like i said Caan . Invite him around to your gaff to trade one Saturday afternoon if he is free . These people are so knowledgeable in respect of form and form lines and all other aspects of the horseracing industry in the UK that bookmakers use these people as " Marks " The bookmakers allow the " Marks ' to place there bets because then the bookmakers can alter their prices accordingly based on what these informed people are putting there money on .
As for you and andy trading together for example .. let's say a bookmaker has a particular horse is priced up around 9/2 in the Morning yeah. Someone with Andy's knowledge would know that this horse would start the race at 9/4 for example or 7/1 .
He would know where the public's betting mentality lies regarding the expected chances of a horse regards form , going , course , distance, breeding, etc etc . He would know this through his sheer enthusiasm and genuine constant labour of love for the game .
Stop trading one day next week at ascot or on any weekday or Saturday and instead spend the afternoon actually listening to William hill radio pundits who are based in there own homes and not in an office together .
I will not for one moment defend bookmakers , but i can respect someone who has the commitment and dedication to study form 7 days a week 52 weeks a year wether it be flat racing , all weather or national hunt and be able to remember everything they read , analyse and watch ...
Its an almost impossible task .
Think maybe you've been listening to the bookie affiliate channels a bit too much mate. The "marks" you mention were definately a thing though, about 20 years ago.
Anybody who uses bookies to bet is a losing punter in the long run....the reason being if you win long term at the bookies they'll restrict you or close you down ..when are guys gonna realise this 🙈
How can u lose if they close you down?
@@sophiesworld4240 The point is if they close you down, its because they have identified patterns that suggest you have a winning strategy. They shut down the winners. If your account remains open and you can bet unlimited, they love you because you're the classic mug punter.
Crikey that’s some strike rate 😵💫
Ye, was a real rattle of winners mid-month. Would be interesting to follow for a year but that's a lot of hassle as no public record of selections to backdate!
I much prefer your tone in this video. Rather than the normal "I'm really pissed off with Bookmakers".
Noted. Although they're still useless lol
I'm impressed he was still rocking a profit over a reasonable sample. Wonder if it could be maintained on this basis for a year plus?
Given the horses tended to go off at lower odds than advised, does it suggest that a tipster with bigger reach will influence enough people to back their tips and a result influence the price? Such that there would be an opportunity to back them asap when published and lay to lock in profit closer to the off?
I was too! Not sure, there's no record in public available unfortunately... not that I could see anyway. I don't think he was influencing the market as the moves come far later in the day and the prices tended to be stagnant at the time the tips were released. For those who do affect pricing that could be an option for them though certainly.
This was far from a reasonable sample
Caan, it’s Grant from 216. Hope you’re doing well brother 👊🏻
Always, hop you are too! AB
Hi, as a full time trader on the exchange do you have to have a business bank account to do this? or is your bank ok with large withdrawals from betfair going into a standard bank account / betfair exchange being main source of income into bank?
Good question. Hope you get an honest answer. I am leaving this comment on here just so that i will be notified of the answer to :)
Holly emailed the support too and got a full answer. In short, you don't need a business account unless you're using someone elses money and running the betting as a business in the UK. It may bring extra questions to your door but as long as you can prove you won the money you'll be okay, for those who are using many different accounts to arb etc it may raise more questions at the bank if they do a AML review.
Hey Caan woud you profit lay betting the tips? Just a thought when I looked at your results. You may loose more than your stake lay betting so maybe use some kind of recovery stake plan ??
Wouldn't mind a similar video looking at some of the OLBG Horse Racing tipsters.
Cool, OLBG banned me from their forum for talking about bookie restrictions. If that's anything to go by, I suspect they wouldnt allow winning tipsters as it would hurt their affiliate revenue.
Thank you for this video. It was really interesting. I hope you can do one on the Football tipsters £15- to 1k, they seem to be everywhere these days 👍
Noted! Which ones in particular would you like to see?
@@CaanBerryProTrader The Football Super Tipster has 65k on Facebook as a example. P.s Thanks for all you do. I've learnt so much from your videos 👍
1000s of them on Twitter
What’s to complain about a £15-1000k roller? A group I’m in do them often. Loads of profit.
Any views on the inform racing website ?
Don't really know what to say in terms of knocking Holdsworth not sure I want to say, apart from his home decor and fashion sense. However what he does he is good at and you could make a few quid doubling up in the shops on his tips. I don't and never have used them or will. But it was an interesting video to watch.
Thanks, appreciate the honest feedback. Don't forget to sub!
I made £100 betting 50p here and there, but then lost it all following tipsters when I got lazy. Best to do your own research.
Ye they're free for a reason (affiliate links)
I tried multiple premium tipsters, even if they had 95-100% winning months on reputable sites I always lost everything following them. You always think the bad run will end and stick with it but the bad run never ends.
Great work Caan. I have been matched betting for 1yr and have made enough to consider using this as a trading pot. I have watched most of your football videos on your channel. It seems like good football opportunities are a lot less frequent than horse racing. As a beginner what are my chances of getting to grips with horse race trading if I know nothing about it (besides match betting)? Personally, horses would be more practical as there are good racing opportunities throughout the day as opposed to football which is mostly evenings and weekends. Should I really stick to sports which I have a better understanding of or is it more a case of understand the principles of trading and price versus teams, players and form and you can apply it to any sport?
The two market types are totally different beasts. With football the positions are far more scaleable and the edge is of a smaller margin with less subjectivity. With the horses its the other way around, opportuities are ten-a-peny, but you can't stake 10k and trade it on ordinary races. Maybe Cheltenham or Royal Ascot but not the normal horse races.
Cheers Caan, could you have a go with a greyhound tipster? Bet that would be a fun journey.
Haha certainly a rollercoaster ride I recon. Could do, anyone you suggest?
@@CaanBerryProTrader I don't follow any, but timeform and sporting life both have tipsters.
William Hill has stopped me from making mixed accumulator bets , for expanse darts +football
I can now only place singles
Shame on you for taking money from the bookies. That's not how it works.......🤣
Keep taking value and you won't even be able to do that soon! See the hills video on this channel it might shock you.
Then put darts on one acca and football on another. There is no special edge in mixing sports.
If you do another video like this in the future would it be possible to compare the tipster to a random pick? I don't really know much about horse racing/betting so I don't know if that would be doable
How do you mean a random pick? Can certainly look at some other tipsters.
@@CaanBerryProTrader Like how well they would do compared to a random horse (or what ever) picked randomly
@@CaanBerryProTrader I believe by random pick , he is wanting to ascertain how a so called pro punter fares against a random chance type scenario. I.E. using a pin prick whilst blindfolded methodology or what i would prefer but takes a bit more time is , put all the race horse names in a hat and select one. Then compare how the randomised test did against which ever pro tipster you are comparing them to.
So many variables when trying to pick a winner , the trainer , the jockey and their strike percentage at certain tracks, horses pedigree over certain distances , the ground, have they been recently gelded, throat operations for better breathing , longest travellers and that’s just scratching the surface, my preferred jockeys are Holly Doyle, Wm Buick , Tom Marquand on the flat and any Irish raider going to Scottish or English tracks for the jumps especially the Cheltenham festival , never bet more than you can afford to lose and see it as a form of entertainment, only the bookies get rich from gambling .
What about Bill Benter and Zeljko Ranjaoec? Both richer than just about every bookie, both done it from betting.
Tips ?
An old wise man once told me when I was a young punter .
THOSE WHO TIP DON’T kNOW
& THOSE WHO KNOW DON’T TIP 💁🏻♂️
I wish for a video for "slow minded" people. Like step by step video, what progam do you use? Maybe show a live bet you make and win? These numbers and statistics are to fast and makes my head go boom :3
Makes me laugh they worry about your £1 bets yet take thousands of pounds off people who are vulnerable and dont know what they are doing.
The ones burning thousands get special status tickets to events and extra free bets.
then they wonder why financial checks are being looked at
If Andy claims he can make a living backing his tips why doesn't he do it instead of selling them? He is just an affiliate for bookmakers. He must know he will get a better price on an exchange so there is no reason to advise someone to bet with a bookmaker unless he is being paid to do it.
He could do both? Although there's a direct conflict with the bookies as you say. I'm sure he knows all of that yes... :)
@@CaanBerryProTrader What i mean is if he persuades a lot of people to back his tips the price will crash. He would be better off telling nobody and backing them himself.
he would be backing before releasing the selection and selling his position off to his followers. theres a lot on twitter who do this
So basically if you back their tips and yield a profit the random “more documentation is required” is triggered and its under the justification of a “problem gambler alert”... very convienent all that verification check and wellbeing nonsense eh. Meanwhile they dont ask for a shred of cardboard if you play on their casino site... funny that.
Yup. You got it... exchanges is the only exception because they don't care who wins. But then once you're 250k up the likes of Betfair hit you with a super-charge. There's a vid about it on the channel.
As someone - like many i suspect - who has a flutter on the grand national or any horse Frankie Dettori is riding and Gosden has trained, i was attracted to this video after it was displayed on the right hand panel of suggested viewing to the one i just finished watching. After watching it a second time and still not understanding or following what on earth you were going on about i thought i'd politely ask. Do i have to watch any other tutorial videos you put out before this video, you know, like learning the jargon used in this video. Have i jumped too far ahead in a sequence of 10? Or have i, as i suspect, stumbled on the "serious" side of gambling and why we have gambling addicts? Those who, after seeing ALL the evidence STILL think they can beat the betting shop and recoup their losses "with the next bet". So, in this industry i can put myself up as an "EXPERT" with - at best - a 30% strike rate huh? Nope not in my book you're not. Tip of the day, "Keep your money in your pocket".
Well done Andy Holding….not the result you were expecting to say the least. 🐎
Try the ladbrokes 5* nap of day tbh I don’t no who picks it or what it would work to a profit or loss but I think they not bad if any I have tried am not sure if it’s the same as the racing posts nap of day but hey 2 any 1 out there am not sayin ull make a profit . My advise 2 any1 is DONT GAMBLE IN 1ST PLACE. As in long run the only winner will ever be bookie as He Tells u here as they will suspend u if u win to much
Bookies have such big margins you're very unlikely to beat them. In the event you do, you get banned as per my other videos. Would look at exchanges if you want value.
@@CaanBerryProTrader Here’s what makes me laugh if the favourite of the grand national wins like in previous years and it’s been back the headline news is THE BOOKMAKERS HAVE LOST 20MILLION COZ THE FAV WON 😳 Why don’t they put everyday headline the punters lose 50 million every other day though 😂 They are the biggest crooks legal on the streets bookmakers
Asking for subcription fee makes one wonder, if horses came in the winnings would far excede sub fees?
25 years of betting it feels to me that no matter how good statistic analysis is, there's a few unobtainable factors that trump them anyway, off hand;
Mood of horse on day.
Jockeys deliberately not trying or even throwing the race.
Random events such as a bad start or loose horse getting in way or horse getting bumped.
Also as mentioned, pulling a horse out of field of 8 so there's only 2 places, although there are betting ways around this. Not to mention getting rule 4'd because certain horses are declared NR. Loads of other gripes too.
Maybe I dont know mate, havent got a sub.
This was a great video!
Thanks really appreciate that! Don't forget to sub :) are there others you would like profiling?
I used to follow a few tipping services but now just the 1 I use 2021 results are 257 points profit £2570 for a £10 stake good enough return on a £1000 starting bank
Doubt he’s made profit throughout the years he’s probably spent £2570 in overall stakes and has just made back his money whilst calling it profit
Who is it
interesting video caan thanks
Just bet on the queen’s horses all I gotta say 68% +/- you can get a return i.e making the frame 1st 2nd or 3rd started doing it this year , for this season her stables are at around 73%
How is this statistic of any use? Living live backwards would be helpful, I would have bought amazon stock in 99 and bitcoin in 08.
@@CaanBerryProTrader how is yours any use!?
I got kicked out of Green ticks after paying €40 a month he literally tipped 26 tips in a day 🏁 and had 7 winners mostly favourites 11/10 and 6/4.
hi Cann, great test for tips.
I don't like just follow other people tips but desire to know what is the direction or criteria to select the winner.
Its not about selecting the winner, its about getting a value price above its true odds - a common misconception.
@@CaanBerryProTrader thanks for your reply, very thanks
Best Tipper I’ve been with is The Horse Tipper, found it on tiktok. Been in about 4 months. Only £10
Sky bet are literally the worse bookmaker of all the big boys. They always ask for extra documentation
Does anyone know where I can find Andy Holding's all time track record, especially his ROI%?
Love to see Hugh Taylors stats......the best in my opinion.....
There is a video on the channel about it if you have a search although its an older one.
Still a tiny data sample. To get a true picture you need 500-1000 bets.
Fair, you know where I can get the history for 500 or 1000 bets? I looked about but no record anywhere it seems.
@@CaanBerryProTrader I wouldn't know mate, apart from the man himself.
Thanks 👍 appreciate it.
I don't understand the obsession with "beating the SP". Of course you are right about the long term profitability, but how much are you really making and how long before you get cut off? Surely the more efficient approach is to find the winners that drift? That way you know you're not competing with the market on price and chances are bookmakers might - no guarantees - keep you around longer if you're not just backing anything that shortens in the market. Some times the most logical way to profit is to approach things in a very non-logical way.
The BSP is crucial, it's the best benchmark we have for value. If you bet with a bookmaker you will get cut off longterm unless you are losing, it's that simple. The hundreds of millions multiple gambling companies make each year is piled into stopping people from winning. Short-term its easy enough to beat them, but you won't do it on drifters... because they aren't bigger than the BSP either. Doing things to try and keep an account alive is pretty much a waste of time once you consider the effort involved. Far eaiser to take them for what you can and move on, or use the exchanges. Obviously premium charges with that if you're any good.
I can remember getting gubbed by BF Sportsbook & Betway a few years ago for simply backing Hugh Taylor tips each morning for a couple of weeks 😂
Suprised to hear that, the prices are undervalued at the time of posting usually.
Are points the same as units?
This is great 👌
Thanks, Rob.
Would be interested to maybe compare this to a tipster that charges for their tips. Someone like Martin Bishop or WDTFM
Sounds like a decent idea, not familiar with the ones you mention there so will look about.
@@CaanBerryProTrader Yeah those are two I have used. Just think there might be a different pressure if you're charging for tips. Andy Holding can just turn around and say I'm doing this for nowt so don't complain etc.
i go for form and how many horses in the race,if i see a form record of 2-5863 and there were over 8 runners in each race that means the horse is due a win,i back horses outside 10-1 so even if it places i win on a EW bet,Also Trainers in form and Good Jockeys play a part too....Bless
Do you not think such form figures are a bit archaic?
there are good horse tipsters out there. i follow a couple
Any you want to share? Do they beat SP?
Plenty of the best are unheard of.
For example; there was a guy who used to write for the Weekender who came in at around 170% one year - and when you bear in mind that, due to the nature of the product, many of his bets were at SP, that’s eye-watering. Mythical even?
I doubt no more than a handful of people know, read or remember the article.
back your own judgement and stay clear of so called professional horse tipsters . bet only with the exchanges pretty simple rule
Generally very good advice :)
@@CaanBerryProTrader 👍
how much was your profit tho?
Have you ever tried just focusing on certain number horses? Say all horses with numbers 1, 2, 5
No.
Why are you assuming that the profit to BFSP should be close to zero? Yes BFSP is quite accurate over very large sample sizes but that certainly doesn't mean you cannot make long-term profit straight betting at Betfair SP. You just have to find a strategy that consistently throws up under-bet selections. I used to think that you couldn't make profit at Betfair SP but I was wrong. So I wouldn't assume that if I were you. I now realise that even though the Betfair SP is accurate over large sample sizes that is because the good and bad value bets just cancel each other out. I now believe on an individual race by race basis the SP is not particularly accurate and that is probably largely to do with mass psychology but also just plain luck.... for instance lots of people jumping onto a gamble or placing a bet on something at the same time pushing it artificially low just before the off, and pushing others out. So if he is genuinely identifying value bets based on the times or whatever he uses to calculate them, then its perfectly possible it's not being adequately factored into the market price and so could well be that he makes a consistent profit at Betfair SP. Although that said, as this is quite mainstream stuff I'd also not be at all surprised if he doesn't.
I'm not assuming, it's a mathmatical fact over very large samples. However, I take your point over short-term samples and agree there are opportunities at BSP in some instances. I think the fact it was profitable at ISP here also shows clearly that variance was on his side :)
@@CaanBerryProTrader Yes, that's quite valid.
I always thought NAP stood for "Near as Posted" Napolean is much cooler though!
OLBG actually banned me from their forum for mentioning account restrictions, another super-affiliate. Probably all you need to know...
It seems a bit disingenuous to say you're 'genuinely curious' about finding out the results as if it will be in any way revealing. 30 days worth of any tipsters selections isn't going to give you anything conclusive, and I think a pro trader would already know that.
If you know where I can find an extensive record I'd love to see it. The problem is these services don't list results or prove prices - maybe that tells us all what we need to know. Would have though they want to share a winning record like.
I’m
Having a problem with a certain online bookies every time I cash out a decent sum they are askin for documents and with holding my withdrawals, but are quick enough still to take deposits on the account absolute scum all of them anythin to stop you from winning
Yep sounds right mate. It's a common problem, take a look at the exposed playlist on the channel page. You may be shocked...
@@CaanBerryProTrader now they have said the documents I have send to prove I can sustain the level I was staking on the site 😂😂😂
I've been betting horses 50 yrs....any idiot can give a 3.40 horse. Quick harness story on tips...famous driver his initials H.F. was on a guy I knows horse...guy goes to bet his horse to win and the teller say you going with your horse , guy say yea, teller tells him H.F. aint....so much for tips. Imagine the driver doing his own move, came back 4th told the owner next week.....lol
1 month is not long enough. Too much varience. Need at least 6months to a year..
Hmm... I hope this is not an advert for his services...
If you watch the video I think you'll agree it's certainly not :)
No comments on his wallpaper in this video.
You cant have watched it!
@@CaanBerryProTrader I did, maybe you are a bit too cynical for your own good. Andy Holding is one of the good guys. He challenges the bookies, racecourses, and the BHA in all his media outings. Maybe he is too genuine for his own good.
What your video showed is that he is an excellent tipster and a good judge. He is not being told what races to recommend tips on, he is putting up his best bets for the day..
When you start attacking Andy Holding and Oddschecker I think you must have run out of targets.
Good guys? 7 tips a day sending people to sportsbooks that only take bets from losers and restrict winners - that he doesn't mention. Please explain... What I showed was that variance fell on his side for 30 days and the prices he puts up don't get any more than a few quid matched - if they do and they beat SP you get restricted, all of which he doesn't mention. Not attacking anyone, just making the point.
Caan - let it go please . It’s been happening for years .
You sound like the fella down the pub who moans about refugees NONE STOP ❤
Just because it's been happening for years, doesn't mean it should be allowed to carry on.
I wrote his tips out 2 months ago. He's useless!
Same here.3 months ='d massive losses.
The last month he’s up 80 points
Sporting life weekend review
That’s why there’s no Broke Bookie
Hugh Taylor different class
As in tips prices nobody can get?
I got a tip geezer, lay Jamie Spencer rides
With lay commission included you might find its not so good in the long-run!
@@CaanBerryProTrader My comment was a bit of dis on Jamie Spencer's riding, holding his horses up, bringing them late and being done on the line. I've won some money laying some red hot Jamie Spencer rides.
Andy holding is a beast
Done well over these 30 days for sure, although wouldn't have any accounts left!
@@CaanBerryProTrader haha that's the problem pal
Have a look at cold beer sports
Will do thanks.
The truth is if you have time on your hands and know what you're looking at then you should be able to make money, BUT, if you listen to these tipsters you'll inevitably lose. Like most things in life, the more you put into something the more you'll get out of it. Simple as that.
Fair comments.
You must have been gutted he was successful . Perhaps you should have checked before questioning his integrity in earlier videos
Certainly not gutted, it's important to fairly record. Although sending people to places they can only lose under the guise of winning whist understanding the system doesn't change my overall opinion.
Andy is the best in the game
Best for the bookmakers.People who followed him have done their conkers.
Could you do more videos following tipsters. OLBG is a platform I used. I made a portfolio of tipsters with 5 general sports tipsters as a foundation for the 2-3 horse racing tipsters with a lower strike rate. Made 300% roi on Bet 365 then got banned. BSP is interesting but didn't have the liquidity or many handball ice hockey markets available. Would be interesting to see if there's an angle for BSP following a Tipster Portfolio
Sure, they banned me from their forum for talking about bookies restricting winning accounts lol.
Get a hunch, bet a bunch.
So called sports picks and racing tips are the biggest con job of all time as I have been burned so many times in the past it's not funny. I say fuck them all to hell , look at the opening odds and do your own form. I layed a horse in the UK just last week previous run wins at 40/1 next start I layed the mule at 5/1 horse was second last in field of 7 , look at prices they run with bit of form as nobody out there gives you any tips like this I gaurantee anybody this, good luck all.
Becaue getting an edge or advantage doesn't last long. Sometimes an hour or two, sometimes seconds. Pro's don't tip for this reason - it's always about price (which is alwasy changing).
bookmakers should not be aloud to do this requesting additional information because you are winning from one pound bets loool
The GC actually says they should do it at first possible opportunity in their rules for operators - its just they arent enforced.
Very interesting
Glad you think so!
Sky bet are the worst. They are always doing this .
Did you know they are the same company as several other brand names like Betfair?
You didn't say how much you lost after all the waffle ffs