Is Nio's sub brand a do or die case for Nio? A technical and honest discussion.

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  • Опубліковано 23 гру 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 125

  • @alvarovillacieros4498
    @alvarovillacieros4498 8 місяців тому +8

    Many thanks for your thougtful videos . As NIO shareholders we will be , undoubtedly , rewarded . It's unique business model in EV's and great developments in R&D will be succesful in a few years. The more i learn about NIO , the more i like it and continue buying. It' s current market cap is below net assets , a great opportunity to buy for the long term. It has been very distortioned lately by some powerful market forces and gambling strategies which is giving us , long term investors , an unique opportunity to buy more shares at these very low levels. Patience will be greatly rewarded.

    • @TheOddInvestor
      @TheOddInvestor  8 місяців тому +2

      You are welcome. Totally agree with you

  • @scl7555
    @scl7555 8 місяців тому +2

    16:40 I see this currently happening in Germany. People are hesitant to buy because the infrastructure isn’t quite where it needs to be. Goal is 40-50 swap stations right now. People love the car but it makes no sense for people to have BAAS and drive 150km for a swap. Marcel can probably elaborate this better

    • @TheOddInvestor
      @TheOddInvestor  8 місяців тому +1

      Nio gives you the option to swap or charge. Building swap stations in Europe is not as easy as in China.

  • @joeanderson6797
    @joeanderson6797 8 місяців тому +2

    This is why I watch your videos, to learn. I'm not a financial, business, or investment expert, I'm a newbie who dabbles. So much to learn but based on what I have watched and read, I believe Nio will be far greater than Tesla in years to come. Just got to be patient

    • @TheOddInvestor
      @TheOddInvestor  8 місяців тому +1

      I am so glad you find the videos helpful.

  • @ankushdhiman5867
    @ankushdhiman5867 8 місяців тому +7

    Helloooo Mr.Odd, i agree with you 100%. NIO’s USP is Battery Swap and BaaS.
    But if sub brands fails, stock will tank too on short term.

    • @TheOddInvestor
      @TheOddInvestor  8 місяців тому +3

      True. But the point is that it is not a do or die case

  • @BreakingSultan
    @BreakingSultan 8 місяців тому +3

    Excellent video. NIO knows what they’re doing. Looking forward to NIO availability in the US but that being said the timing is important and they are waiting for that perfect time. It’s just not the right time yet. As far as NIO obtaining a sub brand and keeping the NIO brand high end luxury brand is very smart.

  • @yigalhalifa9997
    @yigalhalifa9997 8 місяців тому +4

    Many thanks for those great videos and thoughts you are sharing with us.
    The one and only Odd Investor.

  • @polinicasio
    @polinicasio 8 місяців тому +5

    In the current market with very tough competition, it is necessary for NIO to release the two sub-brands. This way they can focus on the entire market and not just the premium segment. Very smart move by NIO to do this under three brands. The sub-brands may allow NIO to become profitable more quickly, which is important to us. If the sub-brands do well, sentiment around NIO will turn around. What matters to investors are sales figures and growth. The Onvo brand has everything to become a great success in the mid-range segment. Thanks to Onvo and Firefly, they can compete with cheaper models, and NIO does not have to compete in the price war by cutting prices. That risk may otherwise exist.

    • @TheOddInvestor
      @TheOddInvestor  8 місяців тому +1

      Totally agree. But the intent of the video is to discuss whether this is a do or die situation. I would be very happy for Nio's success in the sub brand of course

    • @polinicasio
      @polinicasio 8 місяців тому +3

      @@TheOddInvestor They won't die without the sub-brands. But their growth is slower than expected. For example, NIO would be active in 25 countries by 2025, which will not be realized. The ET5 would surpass the BMW 3 series in sales figures. Didn't happen either. And there are other examples. For us as investors in the company, it is important that sentiment can turn around. I do think that Onvo and Firefly will be necessary for this. By focusing on the middle segment, the company may be able to achieve the growth it promised us at the time. The big success at Tesla was the arrival of model 3 and Y. Onvo can do the same for NIO. Thinking of us as investors, the sub-brands are necessary in current market conditions.

    • @TheOddInvestor
      @TheOddInvestor  8 місяців тому +1

      @@polinicasio totally agree. The focus of the discussion was on whether the sub brand is a do or die.

  • @joeforika
    @joeforika 8 місяців тому +2

    As far as I remember myself, I haven't seen in any other decent stock with so many bashers, negative articles one after the other, haters, racists, lies, nonsense. I haven't experienced this much hatred towards a decent company like this in my life.
    If it would be Nicola - I would understand, where they towed the semi truck to the top of the hill and they rolled it down while filming it....

    • @TheOddInvestor
      @TheOddInvestor  8 місяців тому +3

      Totally agree. Nio is the icon of the manipulated stock. It was attacked by everything you can imagine only to the extreme level.

  • @dannialronen2577
    @dannialronen2577 8 місяців тому +3

    As always, nice subject matter!!! Bravo

  • @Fliptop95
    @Fliptop95 8 місяців тому +10

    Nio is 2yrs ahead with infrastructure swapping n demand. I believe we will easily get 1.4billion in other revenue this year from current swapping alone. Now that's not including phones, partners, or V2G.... Selling to grid, or sales. We will start to see it 1st quarter, however it'll take until 2nd quarter to see it full force. We are still paying severance pkgs from our 10 percent cut. Conclusion... subs matter but not as much as you would think! Stay the course Nio isn't going under ever!!!! 💪

  • @figgy1million787
    @figgy1million787 8 місяців тому +2

    Agree 100%, but if ALPS is a flop, it will hurt the sentiment for months until profitability.

  • @fabianticho
    @fabianticho 8 місяців тому +3

    Imagine the company in 10 years!
    Imagine the value!
    And imagine the price 🎉

  • @harishpera3101
    @harishpera3101 8 місяців тому +16

    Nio will not die in any scenario because if current infrastructure NIO can built body frames for other car manufacturers at very competitive price. They can sell their technologies for to other companies too. This is a great asset NIO has built for itself. It may take time but NIO will exist for future.

  • @River313
    @River313 8 місяців тому +3

    I think subrand is an adaptation to the environment and a necessity

  • @leftofcenter4
    @leftofcenter4 8 місяців тому +2

    Nio should have made there sub brands before they produced there sedans, they allowed many competitors to catch up with Nio… I got to cut this short…nice topic however…thanks again for your. Insights

    • @TheOddInvestor
      @TheOddInvestor  8 місяців тому +1

      This is the power of your strategy. I think they focused on the entire luxury model lineup first, then the sub brand. I agree, if they focused on the sub brand earlier, it would've made more sense

  • @martcouz
    @martcouz 8 місяців тому +2

    I see 3 main revenue streams : car sales, power management (battery swap and power-to-grid), and robo taxis (holy grail). This said, as none of these will actually be profitable in the near future. But since R&D is already pretty much paid for, the sub brand is the only cash cow I see in the short term. Remember that this is what’s driving Tesla and BYD’s business, by far the two most successful EV players in the world. So although I think Nio can survive if the sub brand is not an immediate success, I think it is crucial that they succeed because otherwise, they will find themselves in a VERY vulnerable position, being obligated to go to the market more capital when the valuation will be at historic lows.

    • @TheOddInvestor
      @TheOddInvestor  8 місяців тому +1

      Agree with you. However, they do not need to raise capital

    • @martcouz
      @martcouz 8 місяців тому +1

      @@TheOddInvestor Not yet. ;) As long as they hit profitability before Q4 2025.

    • @TheOddInvestor
      @TheOddInvestor  8 місяців тому +1

      @@martcouz will see

  • @larrynorrena6884
    @larrynorrena6884 8 місяців тому +4

    Utilities around the world install literally 1000's of Voltage Regulators and Capacitor banks on our distribution lines for Power Grid stability ...they also build at great expense gas powered generating stations for peak hour power usage... I can see NIO Power Swap Stations (patented) dotted in every country in the world as they will do all of this and act as our gas station for EV's ...they will be common place :)

  • @Kidsolo3
    @Kidsolo3 8 місяців тому +4

    Also...at some pont the subrands could be sold super cheap with little margins if BAAS were to be purchased by the customers.....swap is the cash cow end game....that and energy

    • @TheOddInvestor
      @TheOddInvestor  8 місяців тому +3

      True, but Nio is targeting a 20% profit for the sub brand

  • @dannialronen2577
    @dannialronen2577 8 місяців тому +5

    NIO, has introduced a new paradigm to the EV market with a huge advantages over all the other EV makers world wide!

  • @JL882jets
    @JL882jets 8 місяців тому +2

    I agree with all you have said. Many don't understand and want to be briefed from NIO what they are doing play by play everyday. It's Ridiculous, that's just not going to happen and i hope not as an investor. William Li is no dummy, he's playing a very elite chess game. A chess game that he has already a planned road map with a strong vision of the future goal. But the game is a long one and like chess it needs to be played step by step. There are many step of the process that cannot get in front of the other. Personally, i'm happy what i am seeing of NIO's progress and the future looks bright.

    • @TheOddInvestor
      @TheOddInvestor  8 місяців тому +2

      Well said. William Li is certainly a brilliant visionary. Time will tell how accurate we have been. It is just a matter of time.

  • @1juan1234
    @1juan1234 8 місяців тому +3

    Gracias amigo!!!!!! Feliz domingo. 🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🇲🇽🇲🇽🇲🇽🇲🇽

  • @sabir11
    @sabir11 8 місяців тому +3

    Great observation and unbiased insight.

  • @Kidsolo3
    @Kidsolo3 8 місяців тому +5

    If Nio brings in other companies like BYD and such...the subrands could honestly just do mediocre and the swap money and energy play will be enough for big success imo

    • @TheOddInvestor
      @TheOddInvestor  8 місяців тому +2

      Totally agree. But I am sure the brand will be great too

  • @rrdawi
    @rrdawi 8 місяців тому +1

    How will wait times be managed if all these EV companies start using swap stations in time?

  • @feedthemachine99
    @feedthemachine99 8 місяців тому +3

    I think a lot of attention is now focusing on BaaS and I think that will be huge ,just not here in the US .

  • @djlex2007
    @djlex2007 8 місяців тому +2

    Thanks for your thoughts.
    I have a question, the power swap station is it manufactured by nio? I heard a other partner?
    Because, when other car makers do also swap, will it bring money for NIO holding?
    I think the partnering is very good idea

    • @TheOddInvestor
      @TheOddInvestor  8 місяців тому +2

      True. These partnerships are great for Nio. Yes, the swap stations are manufactured by Nio

  • @fazlechoudhury7537
    @fazlechoudhury7537 8 місяців тому +2

    I believe with sub-brand NIO will boost sales little by little year over year. Because people take time to recognize the new brand. If we look at the history of Toyota or Honda, initially people were not buying that much, but once people realized the performance of these vehicles their sales and demand increased. Look at them now. They are the hot cakes in the US market.

  • @Noommie-Loves-Nio
    @Noommie-Loves-Nio 8 місяців тому +2

    Nio house is important to Asian culture, very important.

  • @tm4s426
    @tm4s426 8 місяців тому +10

    Good morning, Mr. Odd! In my opinion, there is a lot of anticipation going on with Onvo and Firefly, and it seems like this could be their last opportunity to prove to investors that Nio can deliver on its promises. Despite revealing Nio Park, ET5, and ET7, the estimated deliveries fell short of their own targets. So, how can investors trust what the CEO has planned for these sub-brands?

    • @AnParNew
      @AnParNew 8 місяців тому +9

      i place myself as a consumer to buy an ev, affordable, swappable and reliable. I see no reason this to be a failure. I’m just excited to get it

    • @TheOddInvestor
      @TheOddInvestor  8 місяців тому +8

      Yes, there is a lot of anticipation, but the intent of the video is to show that it is not a do or die case

    • @tm4s426
      @tm4s426 8 місяців тому +4

      ​@@AnParNew The company will not be a failure. At this stage , profitability and consistent deliveries of 20k+ will decimate most of the noise.

    • @BradleyAmster
      @BradleyAmster 8 місяців тому +3

      The sub brands don’t have to prove anything. NIO would do just fine with no sub-brand.
      Building a business just takes time. Seems like this commenter is way too influenced by the stock price and hasn’t done any research at all.

    • @corellian2011
      @corellian2011 8 місяців тому +2

      Last opportunity???? Really short? GET BENT.

  • @Dave333M
    @Dave333M 8 місяців тому +6

    NIO missed the ET5 moment. I wish the battery swap for life is just for 5 year. They need to massively scale up sales to maximize revenue from swaps. 41 million swaps with about 65-70% free is not enough - sale sale sale
    They need to at least break even to avoid cash/dilution pressure. I know they have enough cash right now but they need to really break even or profitable before the cash is low
    Yes, they need the sub-brand to be success to regain investors confidence and finally punch the shorts. We can talk about shorts/share from thin air all day. But sustainable break even or profitability is the only way out of the hands of shorts/Wallstreet.
    I believe NIO will be alright in the future. Is just a matter of when 1, 2, 5, or 10 years. I believe we are at the end of the cash burn.
    I expect NIO will break even by Q4 2024

    • @TheOddInvestor
      @TheOddInvestor  8 місяців тому +3

      Totally agree. I estimated that Nio will break even by Q4 2024

    • @herozero12th
      @herozero12th 8 місяців тому +2

      Imo 3rd quarter 2025.

    • @Dave333M
      @Dave333M 8 місяців тому +3

      @@herozero12th As long as their loss keep improving significantly, I have no problem with that. I just don’t want their cash to be low to give the shorts another weapon like dilution or cash burn with no ending insight

  • @PierreSaliba-d3k
    @PierreSaliba-d3k 8 місяців тому +2

    Thank you 🙏

  • @Shefabby
    @Shefabby 8 місяців тому +2

    Are you in Canada?

  • @raffaelerossi6173
    @raffaelerossi6173 8 місяців тому

    I noticed that the number of new swap centers in China has practically stopped, what do you think?

    • @TheOddInvestor
      @TheOddInvestor  8 місяців тому

      MNio added 1000 swap stations last year and will add another 1000 stations this year. I am not sure what you mean by "stopped"

    • @AIMOONAI
      @AIMOONAI 8 місяців тому

      @@TheOddInvestorit’s not stopped and just slow down for 4 reasons:1) weather, you can’t build more in winter. 2) other partners and government are going build more with Nio. 3) for a better profitability.4) waiting for gen 4 station

  • @gg1350
    @gg1350 8 місяців тому +1

    I am hoping to sell about 15k per month, and with the other sub brand models to get to 50-60k per month. And Nio brand gets to 200-250k per year with fewer models. That time we may see $40-50 in next 2-3 years. Hope they can reduce the quarterly losses that will get them above $10

  • @peterkantelberg3862
    @peterkantelberg3862 8 місяців тому +1

    Can Nio survive if no other brands finally step in the swapping system

  • @harishpera3101
    @harishpera3101 8 місяців тому +6

    NIO will survive & emerge as EV car manufacturer. Market players are bullying this stock in a way to grab NIO shares at lowest possible. It has 78% retail investors. For market players it’s easy game to terrify individual investors

    • @TheOddInvestor
      @TheOddInvestor  8 місяців тому +1

      Agree, but retail investors are around 42%

    • @harishpera3101
      @harishpera3101 8 місяців тому +1

      In Tip Ranks the it shows 78.13% for public companies & individual investors, 5.67% Mutual Funds, 16.02% other institutional investors.

    • @harishpera3101
      @harishpera3101 8 місяців тому +1

      Thank you for correcting

    • @harishpera3101
      @harishpera3101 8 місяців тому +1

      What are the public companies owing NIO. Does CYNN comes under public company.

  • @marc9690
    @marc9690 8 місяців тому +1

    I don’t understand what the phone provides that a well designed app wont?

    • @TheOddInvestor
      @TheOddInvestor  8 місяців тому +1

      I made a video on the phone. There is a lot of information there

    • @Cheekyoctopus
      @Cheekyoctopus 8 місяців тому +1

      Stay with the game, phone companies are making EVs

  • @corellian2011
    @corellian2011 8 місяців тому +6

    Either you see it or you don't. Either you believe in Nio or you don't. We are at a point where you need to decide where you are. Do you have faith in Bin Li or not. I see the vision and its the best EV business model out there. Me personally... I'm all in. The time for talking is done. I'm done listening to videos. I know what I own. Sorry to to Odd, Mr. P, and even MMM who might have become a little unhinged as of late. Time for talking is done. It's time to belive in Nio and make some money.

  • @sergevilmar4423
    @sergevilmar4423 8 місяців тому +3

    When you are on a journey, like going to college, building a house, or taking a trip there is a beginning a middle, and an end. In the beginning, there is excitement and at the end, there is excitement. But in the middle there is hell.
    In college, there is the hell of passing tests, research papers, studying, and peer pressure. Come graduation day (the end) the excitement is uncontrollable. Same for building a house, the middle is hell. It can be contractors may quit, you received the wrong materials, or the inspectors shut you down for days. Most journeys have challenges, but you have to have joy in the journey knowing the end is going to be great. Because I will have my dream home or my degree.
    In this case, it will be an NIO payday!!!!! And my account is going to be fat. I am buying, buying, buying baby all the way every day. With battery swap, and the quality of the CEO I don't need much critical thinking to understand NIO is a buy. And guess what, you'll be squeezing the shorts.

    • @TheOddInvestor
      @TheOddInvestor  8 місяців тому +1

      Good analogy. We are close to the end of pain.

    • @anthonylipitt2993
      @anthonylipitt2993 8 місяців тому +2

      💯% let the short ❤️‍🔥❤️‍🔥❤️‍🔥 NIO will have clearer skies in the no so distant future.

  • @leftofcenter4
    @leftofcenter4 8 місяців тому +1

    Bro!…,I knew that luxury models would sell less than common vehicles, that’s Business 101 common sense stuff, how William Li and friends could have not known that is disturbing to say the least. There is something that is bit off with that revelation..they didn’t know. Come on!,🤷🏽🤔🙄

    • @TheOddInvestor
      @TheOddInvestor  8 місяців тому

      The comment made was that the adoption of the ev luxury brand was slower than expected.

  • @nattaphonj956
    @nattaphonj956 8 місяців тому

    The situation is change dramatically. Nio have show the path to profitability soon. Otherwise it won’t survive in tough environment. Nio doesn’t have a competitive edge. What nio can do. Others can to with cheaper cost.

    • @nattaphonj956
      @nattaphonj956 8 місяців тому

      Plus, all Nio car doesn’t have a frunk. And most of nio car use Nmc battery. Nmc battery degradation is worst than Lfp.

    • @TheOddInvestor
      @TheOddInvestor  8 місяців тому

      Totally disagree

  • @TheGremoer
    @TheGremoer 8 місяців тому +3

    Top notch explanation very well Spoken 🫡

  • @LetsLearnEconomic
    @LetsLearnEconomic 8 місяців тому +2

    Thank you odd investor

  • @mattyghost3409
    @mattyghost3409 8 місяців тому

    Demand isnt exploding is the problem and inflation due to Russian refineries getting blown up by Ukraine...They have some headwinds... I'm investing in oil companies...

  • @Soundx13
    @Soundx13 8 місяців тому +4

    Sold half of my shares last week. Better oppurtunitys every where.

  • @matt3935
    @matt3935 8 місяців тому

    Whats do or die for "NIO ADR shareholders" is the pathetic American Government. Even without America NIO will survive and thrive but the media will always paint a threat to America in a bad light. Even if the "threat" is in the best interest of the American people.

  • @KhmerKromBoy
    @KhmerKromBoy 8 місяців тому

    There are too many EV companies in China. The price competition is high, hence NIO is introducing sub brand to compete. In the near term, we will not see any profit anytime soon. Also, China is currently in the recession; people are holding back on spending their money on luxury goods.

    • @TheOddInvestor
      @TheOddInvestor  8 місяців тому

      So Nio should close their doors and throw away the keys?

  • @toddpeterson1316
    @toddpeterson1316 8 місяців тому

    How much influence does the united States really have over Chinese companies??

  • @kev13nyc
    @kev13nyc 8 місяців тому +3

    hellooooooooooooo odd investor EY....

  • @jsfwd
    @jsfwd 8 місяців тому +1

    Nio will nit die, but Nio stock is almost dead

  • @sharpshot6111
    @sharpshot6111 8 місяців тому +2

    I for one believe it is a do or die for Nio. If the sub-brands flop then Nio will not survive alone. At that point I believe Nio will be targeted for purchase by a larger company. I may well be wrong but that's how I see it.

    • @TheOddInvestor
      @TheOddInvestor  8 місяців тому +3

      You are not the only one who believes that. I don't

  • @Slaytheday388
    @Slaytheday388 8 місяців тому +1

    It’s definitely do or die. If it sells amazing the stocks going to $30 within a year if it doesn’t sell good we’re in a lot of trouble

    • @tm4s426
      @tm4s426 8 місяців тому +1

      If Onvo sells well it doesn't mean it's going to $30, there's more to it than that. We're not playing darts here.

    • @JeffPresley-un8ox
      @JeffPresley-un8ox 8 місяців тому +1

      No way it goes to 30 in a year. Stop talking crazy. There is a lot more to it than that. At best it’s a gradual climb with good sales, guidance, and slowly getting out of the big hole of losing money. Hell, a big step forward would just be breaking even in future quarters.

    • @corellian2011
      @corellian2011 8 місяців тому

      This whole mini thread here tells me you are all shorts spreading a false narrative. Stock went to 16 on a MB rumor and on Friday options market markers loss control when Nio spiked. NIO could blast off at anytime. WE still have undisclosed major partners. You want to short... go for it.

  • @rune54321
    @rune54321 8 місяців тому +7

    you know onvo will fail like everything else nio touches

    • @alfredocortez8396
      @alfredocortez8396 8 місяців тому +4

      I think you're talking about yourself my friend. Please sell and don't want you with us.

    • @rune54321
      @rune54321 8 місяців тому +1

      @@alfredocortez8396 nio isnt what any of us thought it was. time to wake up

    • @JeffPresley-un8ox
      @JeffPresley-un8ox 8 місяців тому +1

      @@rune54321 Sounds like you are having a hart time dealing with the dip on stock price. We get it. It can be tough, take a deep breath and average down. If you sold.. just buy back in.. Your grandkids will thank you for it. Have a good day.

    • @corellian2011
      @corellian2011 8 місяців тому

      Did you see that mini spike on Friday? MM lost control while trying to keep under max pain at 4.50. Last week saw another volume price spike. DO NOT UNDER ESTIMATE NIO.