@@StanislavBabunts Because cheating in Bullet is much harder to do than other Chess time formats. Hikaru has thousands of filmed bullet games to show he's at the absolute top level without question and WITHOUT cheating. Kramnik makes no sense saying Hikaru is a cheater. It's like saying Magnus is. Laughable.
Imagine being so good that a former world champion thinks you're cheating. Hikaru should be thanking Kramnik for bringing up all of his amazing performances.
Kramnik has accused many high level players of cheating. The fact of the matter is that he is unwilling to admit that he has gotten worse in his age, which is something that chess players have historically done. Their cognitive ability drops off. Magnus even said before hand when speaking on him, that Kramnik believes that he is just as good as current top level players in spite of clear evidence that he is not. If anything, it's to be expected that he thinks Hikaru is cheating. He can't do what Hikaru does, and to him that's clear evidence of cheating because Kramnik is the best thing since sliced bread in Kramniks own mind.
@@MistaOppritunity😂😂😂😂 why Caruana repeated everything what Kramnik said? Why he sucks online while much stronger OTB??😂😂😂😂 Kramnik skill dropped, but he is still miles ahead of bortnyk and jospem, who obviously cheating 😂😂😂. And hikaru: never was even a candidate in classic and two times silver in blitz in last ten years, for comparison Magnus was five times first and one time second 😂😂😂 and stupid online fans consider him on par with Magnus, because in online he really plays at Magnus strength 😂😂😂 Everyone who playing online much stronger than OTB is cheater.
Clever you are not only farming for content but also inducing a paranoiaresponse by Kramnik and then even more content. I love it. Hope you do well at the candidates.
Hikaru, if you read this, don't forget to keep your head on what actually matters. Candidates, streaming, "literally don't care" attitude towards winning, etc. World champion or not this clown has lost all credibility and has simply gone insane.
I remember about a year ago, in one stream you mentioned that you might start with multiple cameras for streaming and online competitions. In order to set a new standard. Now would be the perfect time to spearhead that.
If Kramik stopped to realize how much money and content he was giving Hikaru, and how much he is just destroying his own reputation, he would resign and give a public apology, alas if he had that level of foresight, he wouldn't have started this joke in the first place.
"If they say you're cheating, and you are cheating, you should be ashamed. If they say you're cheating, but you're not cheating, you should be proud of yourself "
@@Somequo Got any actual evidence? Innocent until proven guilty applies just as much in sports as it applies in the legal system. More in fact as there is less corruption in the chess community.
lmao no it's not you moron, because at any given period of time there will always be one champ independently from how unlikely it is for ANY individual to become one.
A while back I caught some podcast with Kramnik as a guest. He was so completely statistically illiterate in his paranoid search for cheaters that I couldn't even stomach the entire thing.
intelligent people who are hyper specialized are dangerous sometimes because they dont understand their expertise only extends to one field, and are actually at an elementary level in others.
@@chockey4288"intelligent people?" , that's skill bro intelligence is broader, he is clearly dumb to not even consider the possibility that he might be wrong.
I have watched videos from Daniel Naroditsky where he was able to draw against cheaters , and he did that streaming on his Speedrun videos. So drawing against a cheater who used a chess engine in that game is possible because at some point they can get very low on time that won't be able to follow a computer line and therefore blunders can appear
There is a big difference between bad players only following the computer and good players only boosting their performance. With this tactic you only beat the first kind. With engine help Dania would beat Hikaru and Hikaru would not be able to flag Daniel often in 3 0 .
If Magnus accusing Hans Niemann of cheating OTB was bogus, this is even worse as this Kramnik-accusing-Nakamura situation is not even the same type of thing. Kramnik is purely going off of winning streaks, not move accuracy, which is a completely different animal. If you think looking at move accuracy as an indicator of potential cheating is the same as looking at a winning streak as an indicator of potential cheating, you are clearly clueless. And no, you don't need to be a mathematician or statistician to understand basic probability. Flipping a coin and getting heads 10 times in a row has the same probability as getting any of these exact heads/tails 10-flip patterns, for example, HHHTTHHHTT, TTHHTTHHTT, or TTTTHTTTTH, or any SPECIFIC pattern.
Flipping a coin and getting 10 heads in a row has a probability of 0.001. The issue is not one of "Hikaru won 3, lost 2, won 6, lost 1,..." it is the unlikely specific "won 55 in a row" that we are interested in. Winning a game when rated 350 Elo higher gives you a 0.787 probability per game, and winning 45/45 (no draws, no losses) is 0.00002, or in the "not going to happen" territory. If we assume he plays 2,000 such games, probability is 0.01, extremely rare it would ever happen. If his win rate was really 0.88 as I have seen reported (this is counter to the Elo stats, but OK) then the odds reach 50%. But we need to make assumptions that Hikaru Elo is too low, and he gets to play 2,000 games. We find ourselves gaming the system to help show that this could happen, but it is possible.
I just posted a comment to Levitov Chess channel in Eng to the latest Mr Kramnik “math analysis”. As a dual-language speaker I could see how Kr and Levitov misinterpret some of Hikaru’s statements and even accuse him of “insulting” Mr Kr-k due to language barrier
Anyone even slightly familiar with mathematical statistics will tell you that you can't just pull out 55 wins between two losses and say that here it is - one hundred percent. There is an important rule of thumb: probabilities only occur when iterations tend to iterate to infinity. So just individual segments taken out of context is data fraud. The correct thing to do would be to look at not 55 games, but, say, 100, and at a random, rather than purposely selected segment, and see the result.
here the data of a numerical simulation model for the numbers Kramnik has published in his petition video: Nakamura played 3800 blitz games in 2023, his longest winning streak being 79 games. According to my simulation model, the probability of that event to occur within this single year is: 0.249% (+-0.053% 1-sigma confidence interval), for an ELO difference of 350, which indeed would be very unlikely. However, for an ELO difference of 600 points (the number which Nakamura gives for his long streaks), the probability to have such a streak to happen within one year is 26.23% +-0.452%, i.e. it is quite likely. For an ELO difference of 450 points, it is 5.73% +-0.23% which is not unlikely to happen. Thus, it really depends on the players Nakamura picks for his streaks (as he correctly says himself). Basically, Kramnik's gut feeling which he is sharing with us is not statistically correct. I don't think he does it on purpose, he just, as a true chess expert, assumes his gut feeling about chess must be correct; but this aspect of chess, i.e. statistical analysis, is simply off his chess expertise. [for information, the small confidence interval is based on a total of 3.8 billion simulated games per simulation run, all being independent events]
Kramnik is obviously an old man who cant wrap his head around the current chess modernization and level of players. And i think you explain the different variabels that has an effect on the outcome of online games perfectly in this video, so well done Hikaru. Keep up the great work you are doing🔥
Hikaru saying "first things first" on a regular basis is an example of how his mind follows patterns, the exceptional pattern following ability that helps make him a chess genius.
In this drama, Hikaru acts like an adult, while Kramnik like a kid. Education is important, Kramnik is not your level of education, Hikaru, it's useless to argue with stupids
I actually don't care if Kramnik was one of the world's best chess players, this kind of behavior is just sad and the fact that he doubles and triples down instead of admitting he's wrong means he isn't deserving of respect.
@@dmitriiturchenkov3075 So was Fischer, what's your point? You can be brilliant at a thing and also be batshit crazy; the two are not mutually exclusive my friend.
I wonder what Vishy is thinking right now if he is aware of what Kramnik is doing. They are from the same era kind of, and both turned out of quite opposite reputation over the years
These guys have nothing else except chess. When they fall from grace their life becomes meaningless. Carlsen is trying to avoid this by doing things he is passionate about.
Kramnik is in serious danger of being left behind in the modern world of chess (if he hasnt already). I understand he has earned his status as one of the best to ever do it, but he's already becoming a meme to the new generation and will be remember as such.
Kramnik is self-destructing These accusations that are SOLELY based on math, and BAD math at that which is easily torn to shreds with proper analysis……. have already SEVERELY and perhaps permanently damaged Kramnik’s reputation and legacy
Someone start a petition to investigate whether Kramnik goes to the toilet too frequently.
11 місяців тому+36
If Hikaru were to resort to cheating in a chess game, the repercussions could metaphorically create a gravitational pull of consequences, akin to the powerful force of a black hole.
And of course no information is lost when the black hole consumes the game as it will be released eventually as Hawking radiation. Unfortunately, it seems Kramnik has strayed too close to the black hole while searching for cheaters at the event horizon and has become irradiated, resulting in acute cognitive decline.
I've said it elsewhere, but when I hear about Kramnik being so aggressively accusatory like this, I can't help but remember the cheating scandal where Topalov accused Kramnik of cheating during the world championships. It was extra funny because both players at one point missed mate in 2 in a classical game, but Topalov's team wouldn't let it go and it felt so slimy from them. Now Kramnik has decided to change roles in silly cheating accusations.
One time Hikaru played against me during Speedrun, I was 750 rating player and he started with 500 rating. He beat me in 7-8 moves. How could 500 rating player beat 750 rating player. Hence proved he cheated against me.
Hikaru once accused (without having or showing any proof) Arjun Erigaisi of cheating online by sending him several direct messages to stop cheating. Arjun was cleared of any wrong doing. How's Kramnik's take on Hikaru is any different from that of Hikaru on Arjun more or less.
I admire how respectful you remain towards Kramnik... being called a cheater when you're just good at a game and giving it your all is one of the worst experiences ever (i know first hand)... props for keeping your cool and explaining your points in a calm and clear way
@@Somequo haha you are playing that card... sure, Kramnik hasn't flat out said it, but he may as well have... also he's asking for an investigation; you don't randomly investigate unless you already suspect the person... so he has at least said he suspects it, and has said that publicly, knowing full well how much that could defame someone given his former chess champion status...
@@Somequo Yes, just weaselly said that there should be an investigation, without merit, citing ill-understood stats. Weaselly Kramnik. "I didn't saaaaaaay he's a cheater. It's just .... looks =odd=, yes? But I'm not saying......" weasel weasel.
I believe Kramnik refers to runs, there are several problems with analysing game results as runs (or sign) test: there are three outcome, not two, Hikaru may change openings, the opponents don't have 50% chance of winning, even if the 0 trigger is changed to account for higher winning ratio for Hikaru, then the opponents strength vary and Hikaru's own ELO varies.
Odds of Hikaru winning, showing it's not improbable: For the five incidents/events that Kramnik mentions about Nakamura, here are the probabilities for success by Hikaru are: 386 points (91.2%) for 45.5/46 - 7.85% (and for a perfect score it's 1.44%) 424 points (93.1%) for 34.5/35 - P(X ≥ 34): 0.29431683 (29.4%) and for a perfect score (35/35) it's 8.19% 599 points (98.2%) for 55/55 -- P(X ≥ 55): 0.36824073 (36.82% probable for getting a perfect score) 387 points (91.2%) for 46/48 -- P(X ≥ 46): 0.19386136 (19.386%) 544 points (97.2%) for 47.5/48 -- P(X > 47): 0.25584723 (25.58%) and for a perfect score of 48/48 it's 0.60961130 (60.96%)
The five incidents appear in this video at @11:30 The above statistics you can verify yourself using Hikaru's 3336 Elo for blitz online (November 13, 2023) and an online calculator for binomial distribution probabilities (such as the danielsoper site) as well as expected win rates (for example 386 Elo point difference means 91.2% win rate)
cmon how is this drama not over yet lol, it's either Kramnik not realizing how silly his claims are or I'm starting to wonder if it's a publicity stunt arranged by Kramnik and Hikaru atp, either way, go Hikaru , get the bag
If you listen to Kramnik's latest interview on Levitov Chess, he is doing just the opposite - he is becoming more and more convinced that he is right and one of the reasons is he believes that some of the people leaving their comments on his posts are trolls sent (and maybe paid as well) by Hikaru. I mean how delusional you must be. :)
Hikaru makes a great point about content. There's been many instances in other games, especially FPS games, where Twitch streamers used VPNs to play against bots while their audience believed it was real players. Just so they could crush a bunch of "players" and have a great game for content and ratings. Some streamers have boycotted games that prevented them from doing this.
Some fundamental questions of life: - Why is there something rather than nothing? - How would we be able to tell if we live in a simulation? - Is there a God? - Is Hikaru a Data Scientist?
In an interview to Levitus chess (today) he literally asked a question whether everybody thinks Hikaru gonna beat him (Kramnik) with score 44,5 out of 45 games OFFLINE, saying that his rating is also 2980 - close to the average rating of those guys in a streak. So he literally confuses online with offline and himself with those guys with 2950.
Considering kramnik is retired and was never as good as present day top chess players, it would not surprise me if Hikaru can beat him close to such a score lol, especially in Blitz format.
Acussations to the probably best blitz player of all time in history, are simple ridiculous and out of place. Today world number four in standard chess, I hope you soon become close to number 1. Congratulations Hiraku!
![[타로] 나에게 올 대박운 #행운](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/O_heZ603Co8/mqdefault.jpg)
You either die a hero, or live long enough to become the villain
@@VPERED_V_PROSHLOE Harvey Dent
@@VPERED_V_PROSHLOE kracknik
wins the internet
@@MrILikeBreadstickscan we trust him?
@jonathanechevers6265 He's the world's greatest detective! Also he doesn't have any time for riddles.
I’m more likely to believe Hikaru paid Kramnik to make this up for content than believe Hikaru cheated.
Unironically, chess world needed some more drama.
Why?
@@StanislavBabunts Because cheating in Bullet is much harder to do than other Chess time formats. Hikaru has thousands of filmed bullet games to show he's at the absolute top level without question and WITHOUT cheating. Kramnik makes no sense saying Hikaru is a cheater. It's like saying Magnus is. Laughable.
Haha I thought the same thing.
I said the same thing lol
Imagine being so good that a former world champion thinks you're cheating. Hikaru should be thanking Kramnik for bringing up all of his amazing performances.
Hikaru and Hans Niemann can both now cross this off their bucket lists.
Kramnik has accused many high level players of cheating. The fact of the matter is that he is unwilling to admit that he has gotten worse in his age, which is something that chess players have historically done. Their cognitive ability drops off. Magnus even said before hand when speaking on him, that Kramnik believes that he is just as good as current top level players in spite of clear evidence that he is not. If anything, it's to be expected that he thinks Hikaru is cheating. He can't do what Hikaru does, and to him that's clear evidence of cheating because Kramnik is the best thing since sliced bread in Kramniks own mind.
@@MistaOppritunity😂😂😂😂 why Caruana repeated everything what Kramnik said? Why he sucks online while much stronger OTB??😂😂😂😂
Kramnik skill dropped, but he is still miles ahead of bortnyk and jospem, who obviously cheating 😂😂😂.
And hikaru: never was even a candidate in classic and two times silver in blitz in last ten years, for comparison Magnus was five times first and one time second 😂😂😂 and stupid online fans consider him on par with Magnus, because in online he really plays at Magnus strength 😂😂😂
Everyone who playing online much stronger than OTB is cheater.
@@uduehdjztyfjrdjciv2160You sound like a angry alt account of kramnick lol
@@uduehdjztyfjrdjciv2160😂😂😂 😂😂😂😂 😂😂😂 😂😂😂😂
Clever you are not only farming for content but also inducing a paranoiaresponse by Kramnik and then even more content. I love it. Hope you do well at the candidates.
He’s adopting Kramnik with these videos
Kramnik giving us more Hikaru content 😂
Kramnik never fails to put Hikaru in his videos 😂
such a nice guy 8-D
And both of them some additional $$$. I bet they have a call every evening to discuss the drama plot for the next day.
Milk it!!! Why waste a good controversy~ haha
also levi
Kramik is that friend that refuses to accept he's wrong
The person no one is friends with
You know nothing about chess, please be quiet
Kramnik is absolutely right
@@alexrhea9131
😂
Kramnik is absolutely in the right, this hikaru guy is a cheater 😡
Im glad Hikaru takes a break from his heavy cheating schedule to make these videos.
We're glad that you'll never take a break from trolling though. Keep on glazing your boy Vladdy
@@Jeremo-FD 'Tis but a joke
Underrated comment!!!
@@Jeremo-FDdefinitely a joke but I can understand you thinking “bot insulting Hikaru?”
@@Jeremo-FD That joke went right over your head 🤣🤣🤣🤣
The thing that has puzzled me for years is whether Hikaru is a data scientist. I guess we may never know.
Interesting
At least we don't have to wonder for Kramnik
CHEATING IN CHESS: A Data Scientist Weighs In video of hikaru he tells you.
He admitted that he and Kramnik are 500 Elo statisticians.
guys the original comment was a joke. The joke is that he’s constantly saying he’s not a data scientist.
random nonsense will be random nonsense my dude, the funniest thing is he’s helping you get that bag by supplying you with tons of content 😂
This kramnik content are most viewed recent vides
It would actually be hilarious if Hikaru continuously counted with his "First things First", then "Second things Second", and so on.. LOL
Kramnik speaks for itself at this point
He made his bead and now he must lie in it
It's interesting
Hikaru making thousand of bucks by just Kramnik calling him a cheater 😂😂
Inside he wants that this drama never ends😊
The drama is magnificent and very 'interesting'
@@arnie9482 Indeed
Hikaru's "first things first" habit is hilarious because I've never noticed it before in all his videos but now I won't be able to unhear it😊
My history teacher had this habit. Died of old age few days ago, by the way. I was his student in the first half of 2010's
Hikaru, if you read this, don't forget to keep your head on what actually matters. Candidates, streaming, "literally don't care" attitude towards winning, etc. World champion or not this clown has lost all credibility and has simply gone insane.
Yea, even though the accusations are completely baseless - they can still be pretty unpleasant. And we only see, what’s on camera. Stay positive! ❤
I remember about a year ago, in one stream you mentioned that you might start with multiple cameras for streaming and online competitions. In order to set a new standard. Now would be the perfect time to spearhead that.
If Kramik stopped to realize how much money and content he was giving Hikaru, and how much he is just destroying his own reputation, he would resign and give a public apology, alas if he had that level of foresight, he wouldn't have started this joke in the first place.
Anh people believe and supports his claims
@@patogordo1385There will always be an amount of people that believe anything. The vast majority of people don’t believe him though
Крамнику, в отличие от Хикару, нечего терять: он уже закончил профессиональную карьеру. А вот то что Хикару не жульничает- требует доказательств.
@@amirovartur He doesn't need to prove his innocence because nobody has provided any evidence of him cheating yet. Only empty accusations.
Hope he never stops, he's boosting chess more than the hans scandal
Can’t wait for the awkwardness when/if Hikaru faces Kramnik OTB.
Isn't Kramnik retired
@@t-rozbenouameur5304 living in a tent now lost everything
Hikaru has already stated he would NOT play Kramnik.
he would sumo him NOT chess
"If they say you're cheating, and you are cheating, you should be ashamed. If they say you're cheating, but you're not cheating, you should be proud of yourself "
It would be a Chad move if Hikaru, not only sign this petition, but also promote it as well. It would be humiliating to Kramnik.
How?
@@noblerot1315 signing
I could listen to Hikaru explain chess all day even though I don’t understand any of it. Just so amazing to watch a genius at work.
Yeah that moment when he blunders and you don't see it😍
Kramnik was instantly smacked down by math and now is stuck looking dumb
The Algebraic Statistical Gambit Lives
No not really
Kramnik was suspicious of Hikaru's win-streak, why didn't he say anything about my 50+ losing streak?
Somebody should sponsor a big money match between the two. It would get an audience like any major chess final imo
Great idea, I'll throw in a tenner
Kramnik would have to get time-odds. Like 3 min. To 1.5 . No way Kramnik would play in such a setting. And without both know he would get destroyed.
Another reason Hikaru is the GOAT of online chess... he knows when to farm and when to quit.
Kramnik: "won't admit I'm wrong about hikaru, so I'm gonna switch to other players to make myself look competent "
@@Somequo Got any actual evidence? Innocent until proven guilty applies just as much in sports as it applies in the legal system. More in fact as there is less corruption in the chess community.
Isn´t it a statistical anomaly for any chess player becoming world champion. I mean, what are the odds?
lmao no it's not you moron, because at any given period of time there will always be one champ independently from how unlikely it is for ANY individual to become one.
Odds are one, unless you mean specific player.
Yeah, if one had so little understanding of statistics, as Kramnik has, any world champion would be automatically a likely cheater, lol. Good point.
@@bleekcer I guess, you didn't see the previous comment. I am afraid your understanding of statistics is far worse than Kramnik's.
Okay, but why does Hikaru have 5 anomalies per month and Magnus has none in his entire career)?
Honestly, it's just a relief that persistent play at an extremely high ELO is no longer considered evidence of cheating.
A while back I caught some podcast with Kramnik as a guest. He was so completely statistically illiterate in his paranoid search for cheaters that I couldn't even stomach the entire thing.
intelligent people who are hyper specialized are dangerous sometimes because they dont understand their expertise only extends to one field, and are actually at an elementary level in others.
@@chockey4288"intelligent people?" , that's skill bro intelligence is broader, he is clearly dumb to not even consider the possibility that he might be wrong.
Do you have at least a PhD in statistics or mathematics?
@@axe-vw6ek you don't need a PhD to know someone else is illiterate.
@@axe-vw6ekAre you implying that a PhD is needed to understand statistics?
I have watched videos from Daniel Naroditsky where he was able to draw against cheaters , and he did that streaming on his Speedrun videos. So drawing against a cheater who used a chess engine in that game is possible because at some point they can get very low on time that won't be able to follow a computer line and therefore blunders can appear
There is a big difference between bad players only following the computer and good players only boosting their performance. With this tactic you only beat the first kind. With engine help Dania would beat Hikaru and Hikaru would not be able to flag Daniel often in 3 0 .
Big fan of your work on the board and content for the community! 🎉
This is probably the beginning of Kramnik's Fischer arc
Watching Hikaru repeatedly own Kramnik has become my chief source of entertainment
There really is no reason you should ever have to explain yourself to anyone.
Agree 👍 100%
I love how everything is content for you. You are a king, Sir!
Sad to see, but fun to watch. I am a fan of this drama for the pure entertainment value.
As much as I like Kramnik, this time, Hikaru is absolutly right and makes fare points each video on the topic!
If Magnus accusing Hans Niemann of cheating OTB was bogus, this is even worse as this Kramnik-accusing-Nakamura situation is not even the same type of thing. Kramnik is purely going off of winning streaks, not move accuracy, which is a completely different animal. If you think looking at move accuracy as an indicator of potential cheating is the same as looking at a winning streak as an indicator of potential cheating, you are clearly clueless. And no, you don't need to be a mathematician or statistician to understand basic probability. Flipping a coin and getting heads 10 times in a row has the same probability as getting any of these exact heads/tails 10-flip patterns, for example, HHHTTHHHTT, TTHHTTHHTT, or TTTTHTTTTH, or any SPECIFIC pattern.
Flipping a coin and getting 10 heads in a row has a probability of 0.001. The issue is not one of "Hikaru won 3, lost 2, won 6, lost 1,..." it is the unlikely specific "won 55 in a row" that we are interested in.
Winning a game when rated 350 Elo higher gives you a 0.787 probability per game, and winning 45/45 (no draws, no losses) is 0.00002, or in the "not going to happen" territory. If we assume he plays 2,000 such games, probability is 0.01, extremely rare it would ever happen. If his win rate was really 0.88 as I have seen reported (this is counter to the Elo stats, but OK) then the odds reach 50%.
But we need to make assumptions that Hikaru Elo is too low, and he gets to play 2,000 games. We find ourselves gaming the system to help show that this could happen, but it is possible.
I just posted a comment to Levitov Chess channel in Eng to the latest Mr Kramnik “math analysis”. As a dual-language speaker I could see how Kr and Levitov misinterpret some of Hikaru’s statements and even accuse him of “insulting” Mr Kr-k due to language barrier
Kramnik : Hello Naka
Naka: Hello
Kramnik : lets make another cheating drama for content
Naka: ok, show is ON
"You giff me half eh?"
Farms fms and ims for rating, farms a supergm for content. I respect the grind!
Biggest meme would be Hikaru signing Kramnik petition live on stream, I'd start screaming
Please sue him. He will have to take back everything he has said or pay you a lot of money. Only good outcomes.
I’m a simple man… I see hikaru cheated, I click, I vehemently defend him as if he was my own father
I spoke to an annonymous data scientist. The odds of Hikaru making all these Kramnik videos is....interesting.
STOP ASKING ME TO PUBLISH THE DATA!
Hikaru will be milking this drama for years to come
Free content for us to enjoy thats a W for everyone except Kramnik
@@MIDO44444 I'm not enjoying it at all, it's even sad and disappointing...
@@henrybrown8289boring stuff indeed- who cares what kramnik says… just move on
It’s probably more that if he doesn’t address it his community won’t leave him alone in until he does
@@noparkingtuesday4283 he would be just fine - nkthjnv would have happened
Time for some chessboxing between Hikaru and Kramnic
So funny how Hikaru keeps pulling up the stats. He's not scared, he is just Proud of it 😂😂
Anyone even slightly familiar with mathematical statistics will tell you that you can't just pull out 55 wins between two losses and say that here it is - one hundred percent. There is an important rule of thumb: probabilities only occur when iterations tend to iterate to infinity. So just individual segments taken out of context is data fraud. The correct thing to do would be to look at not 55 games, but, say, 100, and at a random, rather than purposely selected segment, and see the result.
here the data of a numerical simulation model for the numbers Kramnik has published in his petition video: Nakamura played 3800 blitz games in 2023, his longest winning streak being 79 games. According to my simulation model, the probability of that event to occur within this single year is: 0.249% (+-0.053% 1-sigma confidence interval), for an ELO difference of 350, which indeed would be very unlikely. However, for an ELO difference of 600 points (the number which Nakamura gives for his long streaks), the probability to have such a streak to happen within one year is 26.23% +-0.452%, i.e. it is quite likely. For an ELO difference of 450 points, it is 5.73% +-0.23% which is not unlikely to happen. Thus, it really depends on the players Nakamura picks for his streaks (as he correctly says himself).
Basically, Kramnik's gut feeling which he is sharing with us is not statistically correct. I don't think he does it on purpose, he just, as a true chess expert, assumes his gut feeling about chess must be correct; but this aspect of chess, i.e. statistical analysis, is simply off his chess expertise.
[for information, the small confidence interval is based on a total of 3.8 billion simulated games per simulation run, all being independent events]
Just keep saying "First things first". That's just you being yourself and it's their problem whether they like it or not.
Let’s get rid of these claims once and for all. Let’s make cheating legal
Kramnik is obviously an old man who cant wrap his head around the current chess modernization and level of players. And i think you explain the different variabels that has an effect on the outcome of online games perfectly in this video, so well done Hikaru. Keep up the great work you are doing🔥
Hikaru saying "first things first" on a regular basis is an example of how his mind follows patterns, the exceptional pattern following ability that helps make him a chess genius.
Not so sure about that Johnny boy xD
Kramnik is lashing out because of toilet-gate getting new exposure. Kramnik is a toilet-bowl cheater, so trying to deflect.
In this drama, Hikaru acts like an adult, while Kramnik like a kid. Education is important, Kramnik is not your level of education, Hikaru, it's useless to argue with stupids
"First things first.." 😭😭😂😂😂
I'm not a data scientist, but Hikaru seems like a totally normal bro, with a normal life and a normal job, except he beats us all at chess.
Kramnik: ?
Hikaru: !
Kramnik: ??
Hikaru: !!
I actually don't care if Kramnik was one of the world's best chess players, this kind of behavior is just sad and the fact that he doubles and triples down instead of admitting he's wrong means he isn't deserving of respect.
He is the Champ of the world. You probably mean that you deserve more respect than world champion?
Admit he is wrong based on what? Because hiraku said no? because math doesn't add up? you are going to have to give more details
And what about magnus accusations of hans on over the board tmt without proof, do you think same about magnus
@@dmitriiturchenkov3075former*
@@dmitriiturchenkov3075 So was Fischer, what's your point? You can be brilliant at a thing and also be batshit crazy; the two are not mutually exclusive my friend.
"First things first" bro we are 18 mins into the video.
Kramnik looked at Karjakin's fall from grace and said 'yeah i can do better'
😂
What happened with karjakin?
@@shreyaskrishna6038he was cancelled (and rightfully so) because he supported ruzzian invasion in Ukraine
Kramnik apparently asked Danny to search Hikaru’s house. It seems that he’s clean, but we haven’t seen the ceiling yet.
Better than a soap opera. Every day a new episode.😂😂😂😂
If this were a chess game, Hikaru would be at the “come on, just resign. Resign. Resign” stage by now!
You are telling me. I saw Kramnik's video and it looked like it was recorded from a mental institution.
Can you link me the vid, i Wanna see that😭
I feel like hikaru deep down enjoy this drama and he doesnt want it to stop.
I wonder what Vishy is thinking right now if he is aware of what Kramnik is doing. They are from the same era kind of, and both turned out of quite opposite reputation over the years
One kept it classy. It's that simple.
@@lightyagami1752 only hope all of India's new gen of players can carry on the tradition. It would be a shame if we had a kramnik among our own.
Hikaru versus Kramnik in 1 0 bullet - the "Dose of Reality" match we want, and Kramnik needs.
Hikaru, you can keep saying "first things first", as long as you follow up with "i'm the realest".
*interrupts himself* "stop saying first things first? Ok, apologies"
How we all wish it went when we drop crits in chat
Kramnik is starting to make Bobby Fischer look sane.
These guys have nothing else except chess. When they fall from grace their life becomes meaningless. Carlsen is trying to avoid this by doing things he is passionate about.
Kramnik is in serious danger of being left behind in the modern world of chess (if he hasnt already). I understand he has earned his status as one of the best to ever do it, but he's already becoming a meme to the new generation and will be remember as such.
I'm baffled by kramnik's claim. According to him, Magnus must be the biggest cheater in history.
Interesting
Kramnik is self-destructing
These accusations that are SOLELY based on math, and BAD math at that which is easily torn to shreds with proper analysis……. have already SEVERELY and perhaps permanently damaged Kramnik’s reputation and legacy
I wonder if Kramnik would question those stats if it was Magnus
No one knows. And by the way, why doesn't Magnus have at least a semblance of these stats)?
Someone start a petition to investigate whether Kramnik goes to the toilet too frequently.
If Hikaru were to resort to cheating in a chess game, the repercussions could metaphorically create a gravitational pull of consequences, akin to the powerful force of a black hole.
And of course no information is lost when the black hole consumes the game as it will be released eventually as Hawking radiation. Unfortunately, it seems Kramnik has strayed too close to the black hole while searching for cheaters at the event horizon and has become irradiated, resulting in acute cognitive decline.
😂😂😂
I think its very funny that this is happening after all the joy you took in Hans' issues with Magnus
I've said it elsewhere, but when I hear about Kramnik being so aggressively accusatory like this, I can't help but remember the cheating scandal where Topalov accused Kramnik of cheating during the world championships. It was extra funny because both players at one point missed mate in 2 in a classical game, but Topalov's team wouldn't let it go and it felt so slimy from them. Now Kramnik has decided to change roles in silly cheating accusations.
I hope for Kramniks sake he never tries to play poker, if he saw someone get a royal flush he would try to burn them at the stake
One time Hikaru played against me during Speedrun, I was 750 rating player and he started with 500 rating. He beat me in 7-8 moves. How could 500 rating player beat 750 rating player. Hence proved he cheated against me.
That means you lost lol
@@swaggerydusterwoosh
Infinite performace is like the most satisfying thing ever
Hikaru is farming kramnik for content
If you're not a cheater, you have nothing to be afraid of. Kramnik is fighting cheaters and that's right
The Don Quixote of chess. 🤓
Kramnik is the flat earther of the chess world
Said 1500 elo chess god
@@Hecklerr atleast the guy's not insane.
Hikaru once accused (without having or showing any proof) Arjun Erigaisi of cheating online by sending him several direct messages to stop cheating. Arjun was cleared of any wrong doing. How's Kramnik's take on Hikaru is any different from that of Hikaru on Arjun more or less.
Public vs private comes to mind first
I admire how respectful you remain towards Kramnik... being called a cheater when you're just good at a game and giving it your all is one of the worst experiences ever (i know first hand)... props for keeping your cool and explaining your points in a calm and clear way
@@Somequo haha you are playing that card... sure, Kramnik hasn't flat out said it, but he may as well have... also he's asking for an investigation; you don't randomly investigate unless you already suspect the person... so he has at least said he suspects it, and has said that publicly, knowing full well how much that could defame someone given his former chess champion status...
@@Somequo Yes, just weaselly said that there should be an investigation, without merit, citing ill-understood stats. Weaselly Kramnik. "I didn't saaaaaaay he's a cheater. It's just .... looks =odd=, yes? But I'm not saying......" weasel weasel.
I believe Kramnik refers to runs, there are several problems with analysing game results as runs (or sign) test: there are three outcome, not two, Hikaru may change openings, the opponents don't have 50% chance of winning, even if the 0 trigger is changed to account for higher winning ratio for Hikaru, then the opponents strength vary and Hikaru's own ELO varies.
I guess we are witnessing Kramnik go nuts
Or the exposure of a dirty cheater
@@spacejuice6941 hahahah I guess we will see
Kramnik's longest streak without losing in classical chess against primarily super GMs is 82..... interesting.... must be looked into
Jeez that is insane, when was this?
If Hikaru is cheating then he is as good at hiding it than he supposedly is at chess and therefore still a genius
Kramnik's doing the good ol' Hornet's nest stirring for that sweet STING
Odds of Hikaru winning, showing it's not improbable:
For the five incidents/events that Kramnik mentions about Nakamura, here are the probabilities for success by Hikaru are:
386 points (91.2%) for 45.5/46 - 7.85% (and for a perfect score it's 1.44%)
424 points (93.1%) for 34.5/35 - P(X ≥ 34): 0.29431683 (29.4%) and for a perfect score (35/35) it's 8.19%
599 points (98.2%) for 55/55 -- P(X ≥ 55): 0.36824073 (36.82% probable for getting a perfect score)
387 points (91.2%) for 46/48 -- P(X ≥ 46): 0.19386136 (19.386%)
544 points (97.2%) for 47.5/48 -- P(X > 47): 0.25584723 (25.58%) and for a perfect score of 48/48 it's 0.60961130 (60.96%)
An error on the last line?
The five incidents appear in this video at @11:30 The above statistics you can verify yourself using Hikaru's 3336 Elo for blitz online (November 13, 2023) and an online calculator for binomial distribution probabilities (such as the danielsoper site) as well as expected win rates (for example 386 Elo point difference means 91.2% win rate)
@@artursverza Yes, good catch, I corrected it in a followup post.
I hope this doesn't distract / affect Hikaru amazing run so far ( for the Candidates also )
cmon how is this drama not over yet lol, it's either Kramnik not realizing how silly his claims are or I'm starting to wonder if it's a publicity stunt arranged by Kramnik and Hikaru atp,
either way, go Hikaru , get the bag
If you listen to Kramnik's latest interview on Levitov Chess, he is doing just the opposite - he is becoming more and more convinced that he is right and one of the reasons is he believes that some of the people leaving their comments on his posts are trolls sent (and maybe paid as well) by Hikaru. I mean how delusional you must be. :)
Paid, @@artursverza
Hikaru makes a great point about content. There's been many instances in other games, especially FPS games, where Twitch streamers used VPNs to play against bots while their audience believed it was real players. Just so they could crush a bunch of "players" and have a great game for content and ratings. Some streamers have boycotted games that prevented them from doing this.
Dont worry guys i will pay for Kramnik's treatment
Some fundamental questions of life:
- Why is there something rather than nothing?
- How would we be able to tell if we live in a simulation?
- Is there a God?
- Is Hikaru a Data Scientist?
In an interview to Levitus chess (today) he literally asked a question whether everybody thinks Hikaru gonna beat him (Kramnik) with score 44,5 out of 45 games OFFLINE, saying that his rating is also 2980 - close to the average rating of those guys in a streak. So he literally confuses online with offline and himself with those guys with 2950.
He must think he is a FM then lol
Next time Kramnik will say Hikaru is an online cheater, because his rating is much higher online, just wait for it, lol.
@@bleekcer Someone should bait Kramnik into saying this, for more content.
lmao
Considering kramnik is retired and was never as good as present day top chess players, it would not surprise me if Hikaru can beat him close to such a score lol, especially in Blitz format.
Acussations to the probably best blitz player of all time in history, are simple ridiculous and out of place. Today world number four in standard chess, I hope you soon become close to number 1. Congratulations Hiraku!