Keynote - Peter Zeihan - 2019
Вставка
- Опубліковано 29 вер 2024
- “At the Edge of Disorder”
Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical strategist, which is a fancy way of saying he helps people understand how the world works. Peter combines an expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to help clients best prepare for an uncertain future. With a keen eye toward what will drive tomorrow’s headlines, his irreverent approach transforms topics that are normally dense and heavy into accessible, relevant takeaways for audiences of all types.
Zeihan: "We are due for another shock"
This guy is a prophet
Alex Chen maybe a couple shocks...
IKR
We should be wary of people like Peter. They're popular within the first 10-20 years of their predictions because it's not that hard to predict the near future.
But when their bolder claims never come to pass, they're discredited and we move onto the next person predicting the end of the world in 10-20 years.
In the 80s, George Friedman, Zeihan's former boss, predicted a US-Japan conflict and failed to predict the fall of the Soviet Union. 20 years later he predicted the fracturing of Russia by 2020 and the complete collapse and dissolution of China by 2030.
Zeihan, on the other hand, in his books and blog posts, none of his wild claims cite works from any studies or findings from other experts in the field. In academia, the bolder the claim the higher the burden of proof. That logic would imply that his books would have a truly massive bibliography. The Accidental Superpower doesn't have a bibliography.
Zeihan gets away with this because he claims that he's an expert in 6 fields. His website says "Peter combines expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to help clients best prepare for an uncertain future." That's A LOT of areas to be an expert in, quite frankly. He doesn't cite anything but, don't worry, Zeihan knows what he's talking about so we should trust him. This is, of course, a logical fallacy called "argument from authority". It's a well known fallacy and it's often associated with bold or even miraculous claims.
@@Adrian-rb4qp What specific claims has he made that you would take exception to? I’m not trying to be argumentative because I also find the presumption a tall order: that one man can know specific details about things that will or won’t happen, even when based on tectonic global and demographic trends.
What would be one of the wild claims? I’ve followed his analyses since the STRATFOR days, so I’m familiar with his general approach to geopolitics and many of the assertions.
@@LRRPFco52 i think most people critique him for not considering culture, politics, technology etc. he bases his predictions mostly on location, and while useful, it’s not the entire picture.
1:43 Start
11:04 Demography
20:58 Robert Lighthizer
46:30 Peter Zeihan books
47:02 Q&A
Thank you.
Good job
You a homie
Doin' God's work here.
Praise be!
My greatest regards to Peter Zeihan. I admire him so much and can't get enough of him.
Summarizing the US: welp boys, team deathmatch was cool but Im going to play offline now as I used to be.
😊gygvyvch
Hhh
Uvbhb it😊
Huh? Try that again with a different translation app.
@@MarcosElMalo2 Trump or Biden (doesn't matter): "America First" - Globalization was fun but it's time to take our ball and go home...
Viewing this in 2022… this guy is a prognosticating savant!
Absolutely
it's funny, because he is being wrong in all its predictions.
@@shostako1284 examples?
@@harveymoment in 2015 he predicted the collapse of Venezuela in 5 years, the break up of Canada (independence of Alberta or even its integration in US)by around 2020, the inmediate collapse of China (he is insisting on this, enlarging every time its time frame), he predicted US will be the powerhouse of Steel goods production instead of China because all the experienced engineers will go to US by cheap, he predicted Iran will have problems with all its neighbours: Russia, Arabia, Turkey, China... (specially nasty seeing the actual reality and its BRICS integration and its massive new membership petitions ). I can go on and on.
But especially funny is his incapacity to predict the internal US actual serious problems.
@@shostako1284 Iran is having problems with its neighbors, so no, he didn't miss, on the contrary he was right, and BRICS is a joke. Venezuela is a failed state, most Venezuelans are leaving the country, I don't know how anyone can look at Venezuela and think that it's still a functional country, where I live you can find Venezuelans who left the country all the time on the street. He did not say that Canada would secede but that it was likely, and remains likely. China is a complete disaster these days.
Three years have shown Peter to be extremely accurate
You see one zeihan speech you've seen them all.
WHITEPHOENIX OFTHECROWN
And yet the law of diminishing marginal returns has yet to be enforced.
A big part of his speeches though is educating those in the room who might not know the history of how we got to today. That doesn't really change much as nothing truly major has happened besides a new American President as far as the audience is concerned.
His speeches will rapidly change once one of his predictions or something else truly major happens.
He tweaks some of it based on the audience, but he has his routine just like a comedian.
Correct. The smugness. The arrogance. The limp attempt at humour. The generalizations. The assumptions that support Ponzi economics.
This guy is a geopolitical genius. He really knows how the world works. I have been following his forecasts for a few years now and can say that the world is (de)evolving EXACTLY as he predicted. Read his books and latch onto his every word. I promise that you won't be surprised by all the terrible things that are about to happen over the next decade. You may even profit from them.
We should be wary of people like Peter. They're popular within the first 10-20 years of their predictions because it's not that hard to predict the near future.
But when their bolder claims never come to pass, they're discredited and we move onto the next person predicting the end of the world in 10-20 years.
In the 80s, George Friedman, Zeihan's former boss, predicted a US-Japan conflict and failed to predict the fall of the Soviet Union. 20 years later he predicted the fracturing of Russia by 2020 and the complete collapse and dissolution of China by 2030.
Zeihan, on the other hand, in his books and blog posts, none of his wild claims cite works from any studies or findings from other experts in the field. In academia, the bolder the claim the higher the burden of proof. That logic would imply that his books would have a truly massive bibliography. The Accidental Superpower doesn't have a bibliography.
Zeihan gets away with this because he claims that he's an expert in 6 fields. His website says "Peter combines expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to help clients best prepare for an uncertain future." That's A LOT of areas to be an expert in, quite frankly. He doesn't cite anything but, don't worry, Zeihan knows what he's talking about so we should trust him. This is, of course, a logical fallacy called "argument from authority". It's a well known fallacy and it's often associated with bold or even miraculous claims.
@@Adrian-rb4qp Thanks for your advice. I am smart enough and educated enough to combine information from various sources and then come to my OWN conusions. I know Peter is NOT an expert in any particular field. But that's the whole point. He is a GREAT GENERALIST. He collects and combines information from various fields, economics, finance, military, political etc. and gives you the WHOLE picture which NO one expert can give. Of course he is sometimes wrong, but he has been more right about the big picture than any other person I know. Also next 20 yrs forecast is all I need. Because in the very long run we are all dead.
I have watched his lectures time and time again and I think he is spot on. Thank you for your wisdom!!!
Only discovered him this evening - convincing theories, apt to the point of woe for some regional issues, including China where I live and my currency is now, with Brexit looming, which may after all pan out as a good idea in the greater long term global future. Studied and taught history/humanities for 30 years and fully accept the premise of the conflict zones - I finally unnerstan Trump's fp in the light of this talk, which is a relief because I thought the USA had gone mad by turning away from the brink of holding the biggest sphere of influence of any power ever; but then I am of the generation that viewed the US through Bush senior lenses. Crikey if I were in the UK today I would probably have changed where I put my x on this weeks ballot paper.
Wow the last bit about getting manufacturing out of china aged so well
Can we talk about how this came out and then Abqaiq happened?
Pretty nuts, huh?
Peter talked about the potential oil interruption in the Persian gulf for the last six years
@@kevinbrown4073 my point is he was finally proven right
He's one of the best at reading the tea leaves.
53:50 It took one month
I would listen to this guy rant about knitting, what an amazing teacher.
So much has come true.... bravo especially green tech (Germany) and re-shoring (China) @ 49 mins
When i saw the date of the video i was impressed !
Agenda 2030 still didnt started like today which made many ppl speculate and give presentations like zeihan, but zeihan did it before hand which is impressive
He looks more corporate with his pony tail now, and more like closet hippy hiding under a haircut in this video. 😂
The thing I love about Pete is that he embraces the Bold Statement. He’s like the stunt driver of geopolitics, unafraid to go take a curve a little faster than other analysts.
The slowing of population growth and the aging of the industrial population is good when compared to the alternative which is unsupportable population growth.
In talking about Brazil, Peter doesn't realize that Brazil can import large amounts of labour from Portuguese speaking nations in Africa like Angola and Mozambique (their demographic profiles are very healthy) - this was done in the past (many Black Brazilians came from there) and can be done in future.
He also treats vast swathes of the world like Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa as black boxes - and he ignores the internal tensions in US politics. This is a US centric view of the 21st Century - a century that is too complicated for simple analysis.
But it plays well to American egos.
US internal tensions are mostly for show, when the donors call in their favors you a get 99% votes on the important stuff.
Importing no skill labor from Africa isn't exactly ideal
@@jekkfractal5164 This is just like saying that "British internal tensions are mostly for show" - but they led to Brexit and real damage - and real divisions.
Income inequality seems to be the major issue, causing civil instability.
What about the national debt? Pretty soon inturest payments on that are gonna skyrocket
It won’t matter since the capital flight into the US will keep the US dollar very strong
4:00 He's referring to a map but they're not showing the map! I hope this gets better.
It DID get better!
50:30 he is wrong there. It already pays back and the price fall trend will continue. (but later he is correct that there is a limit because of storage)
mrgomelonsolaris
Actually it doesn’t. What most people don’t realize is that government subsidies are rarely included in statistics.
@@matthew8153 I disagree. Houshold return on PV is 6-8 years, without subsidies. Grid-parity happened years ago.
@@mrgomelonsolaris If you are a thief who can't add in the 50% subsidies..... yet claim a pay back period of 8 years with NO STORAGE and then it ONLY works in VERY sunny southern USA. Majority dear fool, live north where the sun does not shine for ~4 months of the year. Europe? Oh forget it. Sahara desert is a wonderful place.....
PS: I bought used panels and installed myself, with a payback period(real payback with ROI of 10%) of 7 years, but majority cannot due to them not owning their own home free and clear and mortgage company forces them to farm the installation out which require NEW expensive panels instead of 2nd hand cheap panels as I did.
@@w8stral are you in the USA? Because new panels in other countries are way cheaper than USA as is installing. At a minimum Spain and Australia are already at grid parity
In ‘22 he grew a beard and looked even more convincing
😆🤣🤣🤣
Great video!
Very engaging speaker, but listen carefully to the intro, specifically his listed credentials: there aren't any. Not being elitist at all, just pointing out that this guy's models are based on his feelings, and not based on having weighed a thousand years of scrutinized hypothesis and theory. It shows.
He has a story. He was right about shale 5 years ago
@@MrKongatthegates That's not nothing, but I'm not sure that makes him an expert in economics, politics, diplomacy, anthropology, and the zillion other subjects he throws around.
I am absolutely no expert in anything at all. But then, I don't write books and give talks as if I was either. >Move Along -- No Predictions Here
It's scary how spot on he is at breaking down the information into key elements. We see all this happening now, sped up too because of covid.
Not the first time isolation has been presented as a remedy/solution ... ming dynasty did it way back in the 1700s and we all know what happened 2 centuries later ... what ultimately helps a country to grow is innovation and it can only happen in an integrated world full of competition where ideas float freely ...and also what he is suggesting is all speculative ... america's growth in 1940s-1950s was even more dramatic then china's ... difference between 1939 and now well all major economies are integrated and everyone knows now that geopolitical disturbances are not suitable ...
and for the part where he suggests that skilled people would migrate to USA in future well good luck explaining all that to the majority of Americans, we sometimes tend to forget our tribal mindset ...
migration is already the most divisive issue in America and it would continue to grow ...
The Ming Dynasty is a very different form of Isolation than the form he's talking about.
Peter is basically saying America goes back to WWI mindset, it's still engaged with the world but they'll let others murder each other then swoop in after both sides are weakened and turn the tide in their favor.
He’s not saying the US is going to seal ourselves off. He’s saying that because the US is the closest country to a true autarky, the US doesn’t have much need or interest in the rest of the world.
Innovation has a loose relationship with connections to other countries. There’s more than enough competition within the US, and ideas arguably move more freely in the US than the rest of the world.
The US has never had a problem taking the best an brightest. Our current problem is just masses of people trying to get in and undercutting our domestic labor market.
There isn't much need for an explanation. Sure, those skilled laborers will compete with our skilled laborers, driving down their earnings. But it also means I can hire cheaper skilled labor. Even if I'm not an employer of skilled labor, as a consumer those goods and services will be more readily available and cheaper. More competition will drive innovation. New and better products. All without our society having to invest in their education, but reaping the benefits. More people also means more customers. As a carpenter, building new homes or flipping old homes is good for business. Let them in. I really couldn't care less about cultural differences. Just leave me alone and I'll leave you alone. We can build a better world right here at home.
Peter gains credibility as time goes on. Ever a wine, his predictions get better with age.
Until he gets recruited by an alphabet agency and it will limits his speech as with the older ones.
Love this guy's ties...so wild.
USA 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Notice that he's specifically refers to American Navy "projection" power or "blue water" capability. Interestingly, our carriers are somewhat vulnerable to other powers when they are closer to shore as smaller ships or anti-ship missiles could bring down a super carrier if they make strategic mistakes. The design of our Navy is meant to contain other naval powers to their local geographic areas.
How does BTC fall into this?
I think BTC main use, in this context, is capital flight.
.. incorrect on young people demography for labor and future consumption .. all of Sub-Saharan Africa
@Y T sheeeit
Y T Nigerians are the wealthiest nationality in the US with the most education. Use facts and logic sir
Our shock is the coronavirus
Family Guy Delvinacht that and the rise of China though the two are closely related
Maybe that’s the idea. Eventually for the United States to be self efficient.
He’s overlooking one cultural aspect. America is always in other people’s business. We can’t help it. We are nosy.
Greedy.
So much of what he says is factually incorrect and always designed to make Americans feel good. Example: At $2.8 per barrel, Saudi state oil giant Aramco has the lowest production costs in the world. US shale oil producers need crude to fetch a price that is more than 14 times higher to cover their costs.
Well the AI Segment aged well. “Not going to happen in 40yrs, nek minut”
He explained it , machine learning is still not capable of seeing new things and learn it , u should turn the real things like streets , buildings, particles , things and etc into 0/1 to make it recognise it.
He says it still cant think as good as a 3 year old human .
This ai u see right now isnt the ai that they talk about
Ireland grey - surely not - is there not a tinge of ‘Green’ somewhere?
@Kleco102 Very interesting! Thanks!
@Kleco102
Persecuting minorities is bad but don't make you weak also North Korea is a closed state so collapsing of the world order don't make much difference to them
The map is not perfect but largely accurate
I don’t take everything he says by face Value.
Here is where I disagree...
Argentina might improve ( the Pampas plains are indeed a breadbasket for grains , orchards, and cattle herds; they hit new oil fields already in production, and not at full scale yet ; good port at the basin of a river , an estuary in Buenos Aires ; Abundant reserves of Lithium). Yet they are one of the most dysfunctional Republics ever. I don’t see it.
The cost of capital quadrupling .... maybe doubling. With that much available consumption , you will have a lot of inflows of Capital coming from abroad. The perception precedes the reality, folks from overseas are still drinking the company cool aid. They think the USA is an Eldorado. Besides China, India, Eastern Europe and to a lesser extent Brazil, there are no other large captive consumption markets. Africa is long ways to go.
His assertions on Energy Markets are noteworthy , thus valuable and insightful.
His assumptions about Brazil are less than accurate. True the also runner was convicted ( his party run the elections with a proxy candidate , this as a third term attempt with party in power ). The incumbent is ill prepared and cartoonish, on a positive note , he might be getting a thing or two done in reforms and opening up the country. His environmental policies and respect for civil rights are disastrous.
The candidate in the wings has a more conciliatory let’s make a deal tone , avoid saying the wrong things, has accomplished a few things while in office , and is polished. If anyone need cues , he is running the State of São Paulo , and shortly served the city of São Paulo as a Mayor . So hopefully the soap opera drama will tone down. We’ll see. This is a two act drama.
Everything else was repetitive, yet worth listening once over for the sake of assimilation. His demographic assertions are eye opening, the charts of Capital web flows , energy costs are up to date, his assertions on US Presidency are spot on.
Local politics and capital flows are beyond his pay grade. Not his fault, this is rather an intrinsically complex set of data and facts that even the US State Department does not have or provide accurately. By default you are tempted to generalize.
Overall his wide picture views are not compromised. As I said before, keynote speeches are not where you get the goods. It is a sneak peek preview, at best. You want a little more , you buy his books. You want a lot more in depth, you pay his fee to see it.
As far as demographics go, he dosent mention immigration much at all
another thing I don't see happening is the steel industry coming back to U.S anytime soon. China can use state enterprises to build regardless of market condition if it is deem to be a national interest, however no U.S private company will invest in a steel foundry that will lose money for decades to come. The world steel production is over capacity as it is now.
Steel is strategic for tanks and military in case of war so governments must support it or secure it somehow through subsidies or maybe buy american legislation or purchase orders. But no the world evolved. steel will probably never come back to where it was on the east coast
Ok now on to the actual experts here in UA-cam comments
Ironically most of the time they talk about demografics so yeah many of them are experts, why you think UA-cam uses censorship so much?
Don Martin sup nigga
@@golagiswatchingyou2966 hello
odegaard He is not optimistic about the US because we’re amazing or anything I think we’re all ready to admit we kinda suck but because we have the best situation and have always had the best situation. Best geography best demographics and institutions that are good enough to not screw that all up. Whilst everyone else has everything so bad that it’s almost impossible for them to survive let alone thrive
Your comment has aged poorly
54:46 summarizes the whole thing.
Bottom line: We're going into a renationalization of the global trading network. In other words, Globalization is going into reverse.
So Balkanization. I enjoy these Stratfor guys: The Next 100 Years, The Coming Anarchy, Disunited Nations... Unfortunately, I was born in the wrong place.
@@pitbullsid Hmmmn born in the wrong place or the wrong time period?
@@brucewmclaughlin9072 Wrong place. There was never a good time to be born around these parts of the world.
@@pitbullsid *most parts of the world, half of europe, whole of africa, 3/4 of asia...
@@tortugatech Yeah... The geopolitical interests that superpowers have in this area are what's really scaring me. Given your name, I think we might be neighbors.
"It's been a while since 9/11, we're due for another shock." Man was he right there.
This has aged well!
He also said in 2019 - the cost of capital will quadruple in the next 4 years. Dude literally is a geopolitical Nostradamus.
Peter's talks may be repetitive, but I can not get enough of them. Thanks for uploading!
Image when you pay for a private analysis. Probably really good info.
Very repetitive. Same old speech from 2012
agree completely. each talk though always adds something new to them, even if it is only one thing new added.
@@alecjones4135 so 7 years later and he's still spot on. That's some pretty damn good forecasting. I mean, we're seeing his books play out live in front of our eyes.
yeah. What wouldn't I give just to have a conversation with the man
54:15 Blizzard and the NBA debacles predicted.
Good to finally hear an audience that laughs at his jokes
They have microphones in the audience for this talk. His other ones the audience is further away from the microphones so you can barely hear them talk or laugh. In QAs during other talks Peter has to wait for someone to hand the asker a microphone so he can hear them.
Sometimes it is a bad crowd too
Believe me, people aren't laughing now.
People probably in shock 😲 🫨 🫢 can't laugh when your shook😊
They are few and far between.
Just different enough every time to keep me coming back.
I've read his book a couple of months ago and wasn't surprised the least when I heard of the attack in KSA oil facilities yesterday. This guy is brilliant
That's a great point I totally forgot about KSA.
He really is. An underated analyst.
This is just the opening sene grab the popcorn and lets watch
I just said the same thing today!!! I love this guy
@Phoenix : According to Wikipedia, the US has roughly 5 trillion barrels of recoverable oil in shales. That amount cannot be extracted in a decade.
This man just predicted the future. After the Iran-soleimani disaster, whatever he said about the disruption looks spot on.
Viraj Kulkarni been calling it for a decade
With Biden in the OO, expect an extremely warmongering administration.
@@ChipmunkRapidsMadMan1869 That’s not what Peter is saying.
We should be wary of people like Peter. They're popular within the first 10-20 years of their predictions because it's not that hard to predict the near future.
But when their bolder claims never come to pass, they're discredited and we move onto the next person predicting the end of the world in 10-20 years.
In the 80s, George Friedman, Zeihan's former boss, predicted a US-Japan conflict and failed to predict the fall of the Soviet Union. 20 years later he predicted the fracturing of Russia by 2020 and the complete collapse and dissolution of China by 2030.
Zeihan, on the other hand, in his books and blog posts, none of his wild claims cite works from any studies or findings from other experts in the field. In academia, the bolder the claim the higher the burden of proof. That logic would imply that his books would have a truly massive bibliography. The Accidental Superpower doesn't have a bibliography.
Zeihan gets away with this because he claims that he's an expert in 6 fields. His website says "Peter combines expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to help clients best prepare for an uncertain future." That's A LOT of areas to be an expert in, quite frankly. He doesn't cite anything but, don't worry, Zeihan knows what he's talking about so we should trust him. This is, of course, a logical fallacy called "argument from authority". It's a well known fallacy and it's often associated with bold or even miraculous claims.
From the future. Yall should have listened to this dude.
The demographic thing he is definitely right about and it’s a fact that the world has never seen a demographic disaster as we’re looking at now.
Ggnofnkjltbkhb
Good thing, fucking hell. Eight billions and counting. All of this is on articifical breathing machine that is the current and unprecedented energy supply market, which will eventually fall following constantly receding EROI.
The average diet in developed countries requires 4000m2 of arable land per inhabitant (mostly for livestock), a figure often close or over the land availabilty, hence heavily sustained by food imports.
Of course the demographic stabilisation will fuck up the quality of life of one or two generations for economic reasons, but it's far more desirable than civilisational collapse because of demographic bubble. Zeihan of course knows this, but somehow seems to value population growth regardless of sustainability issues.
Peter always has the nicest ties, lol. I love it.
And the 🧦 give Justin Trudeau a run for his 💵!
Who doesn't like ties.
@Leroy Jenkins hahahha
Totally sounds like Don Draper
Do you think his shirt just happens to match the background? :D
shut up
Just in case the presentation goes badly.
Pete on Saudi Arabia vs Iran competing for regional control: “I can’t wait to see how that shakes out.”
After Mullah-ing it over, I think it will Sheik out.
The mullahs will be out within 2 years.
Zeihan here is so much more academic than he is now, and I actually like old zeihan better.
He's catering now to the intellectual democrats, gotta have a much cooler look.
Because he now is desperate (as all US diplomatic system, with its international catastrophic policies and more evident and desperate brutal crimes are showing). In those days he can defend his lies and wishful thinking to the public, using humor. Now? he is struggling at EVERY lie he tries to sell as "a scientific truth". And I must note... that is very delightful to see ("Muahahaha", as he used to say XD). And in just 4 fucking years!
This dude intertwines some factual stuff with mostly his right wing opinions.
This guy is not right wing. Haha
"I really want to get off the stage" Proceeds to talk for a minute anf forty seconds more
His analysis is solid. His newsletters spot on and provocative. Twitter, good. Someone to follow. Seems, from other comments that Peter is striking some nerves. Were people to actually understand Global Macro, Development Economics, Trade, and Global Finance then they would be able to contextualize Peter's perspective better. Indeed, Peter could include a few dozen more useful points, were he to have a better grasp himself. But generally his contours are correct. Problem is, we aren't ordering a pizza here, takes longer than it does to switch the channel, we may be a viewer, but aren't a customer who can have our ignorance valued of our mere expectation. He's worth watching and reading.
We should be wary of people like Peter. They're popular within the first 10-20 years of their predictions because it's not that hard to predict the near future.
But when their bolder claims never come to pass, they're discredited and we move onto the next person predicting the end of the world in 10-20 years.
In the 80s, George Friedman, Zeihan's former boss, predicted a US-Japan conflict and failed to predict the fall of the Soviet Union. 20 years later he predicted the fracturing of Russia by 2020 and the complete collapse and dissolution of China by 2030.
Zeihan, on the other hand, in his books and blog posts, none of his wild claims cite works from any studies or findings from other experts in the field. In academia, the bolder the claim the higher the burden of proof. That logic would imply that his books would have a truly massive bibliography. The Accidental Superpower doesn't have a bibliography.
Zeihan gets away with this because he claims that he's an expert in 6 fields. His website says "Peter combines expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to help clients best prepare for an uncertain future." That's A LOT of areas to be an expert in, quite frankly. He doesn't cite anything but, don't worry, Zeihan knows what he's talking about so we should trust him. This is, of course, a logical fallacy called "argument from authority". It's a well known fallacy and it's often associated with bold or even miraculous claims.
@@Adrian-rb4qp Chinese trolls are starting to get more upset with Peter the close it gets to facing rebalancing, no Adrian? Someone who challenges the common narrative, not able to be silenced highlighting where the cracks are deepening in the CCP system. Appeal to authority is the logical fallacy not argument from, which isn't even correct grammatical form of a phrase to denote a fallacy
@@cstevenson5256 Has nothing to do with China. Peter lies and gets stuff wrong. He does not cite sources. Most credible people would brush him off, as they should. If you think this is some political debate about China, it's not; it is a factual one. Had Peter provided tens of other experts that agree with him, it would have been noteworthy.
and from one thing to another, don't you think China has their own experts? the Chinese are not dumb, in fact, China is a meritocracy. if there were "cracks" in the system, the Chinese would know.
@@Adrian-rb4qp You imagine no supports and a meritocracy in China when there are others supporting Peters conclusions and China is a Kleptocracy of the Children and Grandchildren of the CCP. W should listen to your straw man, of no supposed citations and this somehow transforming into no support of others, this a logical fallacy, and then we should listen to you. No cracks, Official and failed policy from 10th Peoples Congress to Rebalance away from the Investment Led model in China thus accelerating debt and low efficiency of that taken. All the work on the Chinese Demography out there, the gentleman in Pennsylvania, the entire Global Macro community outside of a few Hedge Fund managers with Special Investing rights who get time on the TV. Sounds as if your need of expertise rises no further than the guided CCP narrative you find on TV, while debates internal to China are far less fantasyland. Problem with your statement, is you don't know enough to make the assertion,.
@@cstevenson5256 I’ve seen spam-like comments from “Adrian” now in the comments section. I thought it was a real person, but now it looks like an algorithm.
Headline today (17 days later) "White house mulls over controlling currency flow to China" see 26:30
51:20 He's right about DFW. And this has been my angst against the authoritarian environmentalists. If you want to attack the problem, you want to be more innovative in your approach. DFW solves problems with a financial incentive, and as a byproduct, we're environmentally sound. Two birds one stone. It was a great observation by Mr. Zeihan.
Had a feeling I was gonna have to move from Canada one day😥
Yeah, its too dam cold! Move to Arizona!
@@linmal2242 who wants to go to a third world country like the USA? US comes to you.
Jordan Lynch Canada’s gonna get mived
Jordan Lynch *moved
The British will probably bring their empire so they’ll probably look after you, he’s said this in another video
Hm couple of inaccuracies.
- Saying that only the US had super-carriers in 2019 and that ALL "ski-lift carriers" eg STOBAR or STOVL, regardless of their displacement, capacity or technology can only compete with the Gerald Ford class in a 7:1 ratio is patently nonsense. There were 3 other aircraft carriers with similar displacement in service in 2019 and two more have entered service since then. Though it is entirely accurate to say that no other blue-water navy or combination thereof on the planet could successfully challenge the US navy globally, there are navies which could successfully challenge a single US carrier group, in certain circumstances.
- Saying that the Straight of Hormuz is the UK's problem in a situation where the US is supplying its entire domestic oil supply is also nonsense. In 2019, the UK imported no oil which transited through the Straight of Hormuz. Principle supplies came from Norway, the US, Russia and Mediterranean Africa. The UK has been terrified of relying on the Suez canal for energy supplies since 1956 and has pretty successfully decoupled its energy market from suppliers on the Arabian Peninsula. This however has been compromised to a degree since 2022 when finding alternatives to Russian hydrocarbons.
All moot in any case. Since 24th Feb 2022, the US has woken up to the fact that the cold war is far from over and if it has any hope of preserving an export market, it desperately needs NATO - and for that it needs its carrier groups in the Straight of Hormuz to keep its allies topped up ;)
Oh well Zeihan, you're right about a great many things! But Putin said nope on that.
Peter is a guy I can get behind. His optimistic charisma really puts your right foot forward. That's what I like about him.
Always find Peter Zeihan interesting. This one is mostly the same as his other presos but there are a few new slides…
34:15 - crude and natural gas trapped mid-continent and keystone XL pipeline not happening anytime soon - difficult to export natural gas
35:40 - risk to crude flows - US has light/sweet but refineries tooled for heavy/sour - biggest challenge oil industry faces - also Mexico crude off line
38:00 - US natural gas essentially free for the foreseeable future
41:00 - geopolitics of Steel - coming to US due to low energy costs
42.27 - value added manufacturing (US, Germany, China)
47:00 - Q&A
The best part of this speech is that it is conspiracy free.
@Ascendant Ape Peter is a Russian agent.
Italie, poland, Germany, France, Spain, all the exports/imports for these countries are 80 to 90% between themselves, because european union... so it's more like internal exports and imports. As a whole The EU is not dependent to external trade, I think it's even below the US (forgot the number exactly)
He's deforming the Data here to suit his argument so it looks more amazing ... personaly don't like these kinde of semi honest numbers. A bit disappointed
Is this the reason Trump is trying to pull out of the middle-east?
But he is sending troops to Saudi Arabia. He is pulling out of Syria because he is a traitor to America with Putin and Russia. Russian oligarchs finance his golf courses, and Putin has something on him as blackmail. fwiw Anyone notice the speaker never mentions black coal?
Gary Wheeler very true .The total out put of the OIC 57 countries in the Middle East amount to 22% of American GDP when massive brain drain happens its gonna get scary
@JJ France False premise.
America, internally, can try to be self-sustaining - and as far as I'm concerned, that is fantastic. But you have many corporations taking advantage of weak legislation worldwide, and I do not want a uk-usa free treaty, as it would involve reducing our food standards/ medication standards down to USA levels, which is a horrifying thought.
This guy is the most fascinating and prescient thinker I have ever discovered! Ordering his books TODAY.
We should be wary of people like Peter. They're popular within the first 10-20 years of their predictions because it's not that hard to predict the near future.
But when their bolder claims never come to pass, they're discredited and we move onto the next person predicting the end of the world in 10-20 years.
In the 80s, George Friedman, Zeihan's former boss, predicted a US-Japan conflict and failed to predict the fall of the Soviet Union. 20 years later he predicted the fracturing of Russia by 2020 and the complete collapse and dissolution of China by 2030.
Zeihan, on the other hand, in his books and blog posts, none of his wild claims cite works from any studies or findings from other experts in the field. In academia, the bolder the claim the higher the burden of proof. That logic would imply that his books would have a truly massive bibliography. The Accidental Superpower doesn't have a bibliography.
Zeihan gets away with this because he claims that he's an expert in 6 fields. His website says "Peter combines expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to help clients best prepare for an uncertain future." That's A LOT of areas to be an expert in, quite frankly. He doesn't cite anything but, don't worry, Zeihan knows what he's talking about so we should trust him. This is, of course, a logical fallacy called "argument from authority". It's a well known fallacy and it's often associated with bold or even miraculous claims.
Talking about Donald Trump, what about the radical 2020 Dem Candidates?
"Like Austin really isn't part of Texas, the US isn't really part of the world."
That's only half right. Austin isn't really part of Texas. But the rest of the world isn't really part of America.
Brain drain always helped us. It helped them also. That’s good immigration in my mind.
I would look at building a thorium molten salt reactor. We had one running in Oak Ridge Tennessee from 1965 to 1970. The concept is different. You don't have a bunch of rods in a pool of water. You have thorium combined with molten salt running through a heat exchanger. It is not pressurized, it cannot blow up. Byproducts would be molybdenum 99 for cancer diagnostics therapies and research. Xenon for Nassau, for interstellar space travel. The excess heat can be used for water desalinization and petroleum distillate manufacturing. I believe Bill Gates is building a prototype in Idaho as we speak. Instead of having a huge regional reactor which could be taken out by terrorist, it would be better to have, smaller reactors in each town or city.
"the cost of capital will quadruple in three years" -- guy was pretty spot on with that one
This speech was given before agenda 2030 started , which impressive for me, as if he predicted the future
How things have changed since 2019....or to be more precise, since Trump is no longer president....
The cost of capital increasing by 4? The inflows of foreign money should moderate that figure by half. The interest rates may double, but my guess that quadruple is out there.
IF quadruples it is still not all that bad compared to history
"..its been a while since 9/11. We're due for another shock"
Wellll holy shit
"If you lose access [to SWIFT], you don't just lose access to American markets, you lose access to international trade"
Q2 2022 talking here -- Have China and Russia recently demonstrated that this is no longer the case?
They never got hit with loss of swift and yet they still suffering from economic hardship
So I'd say yes, loss of swift is pretty severe
@@rejvaik00 What sort of details or specifics (in our current fog of war, with its lies and disinformation) could you provide to back that up?
@@jimluebke3869 well for one thing the Russians are surprised at how the Chinese are refusing to offer up direct military aid
Because the Chinese fear the economic sanctions imposed by the international community
Russia expected the Chinese to assist them much like how Ukraine is being assisted in being given Stinger launchers and HIMARS artillery systems, etc.
China has offered none of that, China has participated in the as you said misinformation war because the Chinese government regularly broadcasts the Russian propaganda and the Russian talking points
But not any military assistance, no infact the Chinese government has only increased the fire economic situation in Russia because they will purchase Russian supplied energy but at a steep discount
China instead participated in a predatory economic opportunity much to Russia's disappointment
@@rejvaik00 Россию отключили от СВИФТа в начале прошлого года.
Peter: "Time to show our gratefulness and appreciation for the millennials"
Me: Damn right, about time
Peter: "Which won't take nearly as long because there are only three reasons"
Me: Fuck
4 years later kinda surprised the convoy joke didn't land better
Dude is brilliant. Bright future for USA.
On the stuff around the 45 minute mark, I still don't agree with Zeihan on Argentina and India. I think he overestimates Argentina and underestimates India. I might also put Ethiopia and Nigeria as doing better than he did (though there's still going to be quite a bit of instability). Other than that though, the map looks realistic.
Лол, в Эфиопии гражданская война.
@@antonsokolenko8492 yes, Ethiopia is dealing with rebels. It is an obstacle to their success. We will see how it plays out in the long-term.
What is likely going to be the consequences of the world conflicts when the US pulls out. Who will be fighting, who will be the winners and how will that impact the geopolitical order outside of the US. What will the new landscape presents as threats to the US.
America has explored shale for a reason; that reason is that other types of oil are running out. Eventually, the shale will run out.
This doesn't matter to Peter, because he doesn't care about how big the global pie is, only how big America's share is. If the global economy was one hundredth the size and no country could afford the infrastructure for technology past the 1900s, Peter would think it's perfectly fine as long as America was the most powerful out of the remains.
Everything non-renewable will run out and most of the items that are considered renewable are made with raw materials of limited quantities. Hopefully technology can carry us through or we'll see a return to basic survival after a massive die off.
@@ryankuypers1819 Yes, but not until 2050-2100
I think he's missing something big. America lacks cohesive identity. There is a looming civil conflict, a debt crisis, and a social crisis that will make America less competitive. I live in CA. We are the tip of the spear. Our issues will be exported to other states.
When was the last time we have had a cohesive identity?
1776?
@@jonathanryan9946 good point. America has always squabbles. But our current situation is unsustainable. Americans hate eachother more now than during the time of the civil war. The ethnic profile of America will lead to whites becoming a minority very soon. And income inequality will lead to class warfare and a toxic political climate. This will not be mitigated by shale and millenials buying worthless shit.
It may surprise you to know, but the rest of the country isn't as retarded as Cali.
@@MadM0nte oh but they will be! Texas, Arizona will turn blue. And the Democrats will implement the same clown world agenda in those states that they have here.
really bad intro. That guy cannot even introduce Peter without reading??
Here is what I find funny. I sorted the comments newest 1st. 1st one 1 hour ago: The guy is truly delusional..... 2nd one 1 day ago: Peter makes such a great case......
33:18 yeah good luck using those when ICBM'S hit your asses.
Maybe I am looking at this wrong so I'm hoping someone can give me an answer.
He always says the US doesnt need or care about the rest of the world for the most part because of the amount of oil we have. My problem with following his reasoning is that the oil is publicly owned and will be traded on the global market as such. Wouldn't we have to nationalize these resources to keep them in house?
Answer:Export ban. Trump has to options when this happens: let the people pay a lot of money for oil or forbid exports so that they pay a hell of a lot less. I think you know what he will choose.
@@ansfriedjanssens7623 He wont choose either of those
This feller knew what was going to happen post-Covid before Covid was even a thing.
Canada could easily fall apart. They have had 2 referendums, on splitting up the country, with Quebec leaving. Last referendum, the "leave Canada" side came within 2,000 votes of breaking up Canada. You have to understand the numbers to see how easily it is, for Canada to be destroyed.
Canada is a country that has 2 provinces which contain most of it's population. That would be Ontario and Quebec. Quebec isn't really the same as the rest of Canada. It is mostly French speaking people, the historical remainder of the French people in North America. Most of them want their own country. If Quebec left Canada, then Canada would be demographically and politically dominated by one single province of Ontario, who would have 50% of the entire population of Canada.
Canada has been kept stable by having 2 giant Provinces, one French speaking, one English speaking, dominate all of Canada and balance off each other. Quebec is one of those giant Province. It's what keeps Canada unique and different from the United States. Most English speaking Canadians in other provinces are almost indistinguishable from Americans. Same language, same values, similar economy, they watch the same TV, read the same books as Americans. If Quebec left, there would be 12 remaining English speaking Provinces left in Canada. Most are tiny, with few people. Only Ontario is huge in numbers, it would contain half of the remaining population of a Canada without Quebec. All 12 Provinces combined would have the same political power as the one Province: Ontario.
This has played out in Canadian history, this fact that the central provinces of Quebec and Ontario basically have all the power in Canada. It has caused a lot of tension in Canadian history. The other Provinces don't like it, don't being dominated by Ontario and Quebec. If Quebec left, the rest of Canada would never survive. One of the reasons Quebec leaving Canada would break up the remainder of Canada is you would have a West Pakistan/East Pakistan situation, if Quebec left. Students of history know that when the British left India, two areas of India.....West and East Pakistan, they politically seceded from India. Both Pakistans had a common language and religion....so they tried to operate as one country. The trouble was, they were divided by geography....they were in two separate parts of the Indian subcontinent. That doesn't work. A country with two parts, with a thousand miles of another country in between it's two parts, can't function. It's like trying to make a marriage work, with the husband permanently in New York City, the wife permanently in Los Angeles. That seldom works. Look at a map. That's what Canada would look like, without Quebec. It would have 4 Provinces separated from Ontario, by the new country of Quebec, right in the middle, dividing the whole country of Canada into two parts. That would never work. Those isolated Provinces are Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.
Quebec leaving means geography alone, would break up Canada. Add to this, one province of Ontario would be half the population of the remainder of Canada. Ontario would completely dominate the remainder of Canada, politically and economically. This political domination would break up Canada. Alberta is an oil rich province that would be the first to leave Canada and join the United States, if Quebec left. Plus, with Quebec gone, it's French heritage gone, Canada would be an entirely English speaking country in North America, almost identical to the United States. And Canada economically relies almost entirely on American trade to survive. So there would be no reason to keep Canada around, as a political unit. Canada would be absorbed into the United States, which should have happened already, long ago, but did not, for quirky historical reasons. That might change. It almost did, twice, with Quebec trying to break up Canada twice. They were timid about it because they didn't know if the Americans would support it, or not.
Quebec has a lot of hydro-electricity and good manufacturing. They would need a Free Trade guarantee and American protection, if they held another referendum to leave Canada. If they won the entirely legal vote to break up Canada and if the United States recognized Quebec as an independent country, there is nothing the Government of Canada could do about it. Canada is weak and has no real military. They entirely depend on the United States for protection.
President Trump has the wrong idea in trying to buy Greenland. That seller does not want to sell. However it would be pretty easy to break up Canada and absorb all that Canadian real estate, all those resources: Just guarantee Quebec Independence and Free Trade. The rest of Canada would fall apart in a few years, the remaining Provinces would be motivated sellers, wishing to join the United States.
Canada is far, far less secure, than people think.
Tim Bucks
Alberta’s already giving them to the end of year or it’s leaving.
and the US is even more fragile , it is a political mess
How is Germany the Other Guys (orange and in the same group as Russia) after WWII - the US owned them
That map is for the year 2020.
@@ansfriedjanssens7623 Oh, so Germany is our enemy after 2020
@Y T I can't believe that you are an advocate of communism - with all the horror they have caused
How clever! Zeihen even made up his own demographic profiles (the graphs clearly indicated "Copyright Zeihen) of Mexico.
What I like about this guy is he appeals to my superior intellect🤖
14:55 In the year 2022 capital will quadruple. He called this inflation directly on time.
10:45 ... Ziehan the prophet. Wow. "It's been a while since 9/11, we're due for another shock. And since we maintain the global order and don't use it, that's more a problem for everyone else than it is for us"
It seems we actually benefit from shocks outside,
The only guy who can make me feel sorry for Chinese communist party!
Never make enemy of USA, you pay for generations.
Worse than enmity with America can only be friendship with her.
Peter's speeches might be alluring to most Americans, but he sounds like the Neo-Malthusians of the 1960s and 1970s - who insisted that India and China were going to "starve to death". It didn't happen. They were very convincing; they produced computer models and charts - and for a while it seemed like their predictions were definitely going to happen (famines in China and India) - then things changed.
It is also a poor guide for future American geopolitical strategists in the 21st Century - i.e. how do you shape the 21st Century if you must withdraw from the rest of the world?
With or without the US, the world will reorder itself. No matter how big the economy of North America is, it can't be bigger than the combined economies of Africa, Europe and Asia.
@NorthAmericaIsBestAmerica I know. Peter's thesis is based on the assumption that there would be no "Norman Borlaug's" in future. I believe there will be.
He said nothing about how to guide geopolitics. He just discussed the reasons for the trends. Vast difference between a state department employee and the diplomatic service and a business operator
MrOkadaman28
The US is half the entire world’s economy. So if you include all of North America it is in fact larger than Africa, Europe, and Asia. South America too.
@@matthew8153 coo coo, coo coo, coo coo. Dumb ass: Europe alone is larger than the USA
China/India didn't starve to death....??? uh, yes they did. Millions of them, but they have finally been using oil based farming techniques used by the west and they have stopped starving, though in China's case, if imports were cut off tomorrow they would start starving, tomorrow.
w8stral
A pretentious European.
Both China and India are projected to pass the United States in GDP this century. He is too optimistic.
The entire bottom is going to fall out before that can ever happen. Their energy supply is almost exclusively from the middle east, which will not be stable (such that it is) for much longer.
Tariffs maks sense..