Time for another deep dive into one of the most popular vintage cards of the Post-War era. 1968 Topps PSA Population Report: www.psacard.com/pop/baseball-...
Thanks, but PSA has nothing to worry about from me. Most collectors don't care about issues like this. But enough of us do care that it's an important to bring forth.
Yes he is, he will have to submit to PSA under an alias! Lol - In all seriousness , he makes the best ,most informative videos by far out of anybody in the hobby that I have seen so far. Kudos
Thanks Mick! This video took me two months to put together from research to editing. The response has been great and totally worth it. I really appreciate the feedback.
With the info that you've provided, hopefully the collecting industry will eventually begin to blackball psa and go to another grading company that'll play fair.
There is competition coming with the new service CGC is launching. I'm going to be interested to see what collectors think of their objectivity in grading. It's being run by a guy from Beckett.
@@vintagecardcurator I know CGC grades comic book by the tenth such as a 9.6.. I don't think they have ever graded a perfect 10 or even a 9.9 in a comic book. This would be a good way to really focus on a true mint grade. So a 9.4 might have the back centering issue and a 9.7 would not.
@@vintagecardcurator Doubt it. If you watch the auction block on eBay you'll ALWAYS see Beckett listings saying, PSA 10? on their 9 and 9.5. Explain that.
Great video as always Keith! Love the research you put into this! I just don’t get PSA sometimes, I wish they would just grade objectively! Awesome to see you doing a video! I hope you had a nice holiday season!
Your videos are always super informative. I actually have a Ryan rookie that should grade a 6 that I haven't sent in yet. Been holding onto it to send to CGCs new grading company CSG. They used to specialize in comic books but I really hope they are successful because we need other options. I'm sending them 10 of my best cards when they start accepting subs.
I wonder if PSA sold the company as part of a plea deal they made behind closed doors with the FBI. I love all the hours and hard work you must have put into these videos for all of us, thank you very much.
No, the sale had nothing to do with the FBI investigation. There's no talk of any charges against them. The shareholders just got offered a good price for their shares and they accepted.
@@vintagecardcurator That's how back door plea deals work, you never hear anything. I spent years working in the Police HQ on Baltimore street in Baltimore. I've talked with court guards and judges a lot about it, makes them sick but its how you get convictions, once again another crooked system.
some plea deals enable you to walk as long as you leave the business or sell your company or step down as CEO, its all the same, PSA has had hundreds of buy out bids over the years and turned them all down, until the heat was on.
Thanks so much, I appreciate the kind words of support and the sub. Videos like this take a lot of time and that makes it difficult to build a sustainable audience. I'll keep working at it!
So good to see a new video from you Keith. Someone brought up your channel the other day. We were all talking about how your one of the best on YT. So glad to see a new video from you. I must admit that I have been looking at SGC cards instead of PSA cards because of their trimming and altered cards problems from a year and 1/2 ago or so. The sale of the company has given me a bit more hope for the future of PSA. We are getting closer to the day where computers will be doing some of the grading. I think PSA's new ownership will be at the forefront of this. That being said, the Ryan RC is the centerpiece of my PC, though mine is just an incredible looking PSA 7. I hope your doing great my friend. Thank you for sharing.
Thanks...I always appreciate your comments. Believe it or not I am still buying PSA cards. I think there is a lot the company does right and I want them to strive to live up to the expectation collectors have for them. I have not tried SGC yet. I know there was a lot of buzz about them in the spring but I have seen many collectors disappointed by their experiences. And their ownership turns me off because of a lack of ethics in the past. I'm excited by CGC and the use of AI to grade. No doubt PSA will be making steps in that direction too. It has the potential to help. But there's two critical questions I would have: how are they handling the tolerances of card sizes? and can they differentiate between an edge that was cut by Topps in the 1960's and one cut by a card doctor in 2021? PSA seems to fail on the first question and I don't think they pass the second one either.
I still buy PSA as well, but trying to stick to mid-level grades. I'm excited for AI getting implemented as it will bring a lot of trust that was lost over the last few years back into the hobby. Will be interesting to see what CGC brings as they have so much experience in other collectible markets. Hoping between them & PSA' s new ownership it will force a change onto every other company. I think the reason most are not happy with SGC is the lower resale value compared to PSA. Since selling is an exception for me, I don't worry about that. I think the cases look great and at times you can get a better looking card for cheaper because its not in the PSA holder.
This is so spot on right now we need this for the market for The collector for the future of the hobby this is such a great video I can't even explain it in words we need more videos like this and more people to see them and more people in the hobby to understand that this is it's gone on for so long then it should not be acceptable anymore and I think some people are starting to get the hint hopefully things will begin to change such a great example man hats off to you cheers
Stepping up your research GAME! ... loved how you went next level by showing the ratio's of the cards around the Ryan on the sheet ... the was the Oh SHiIT moment if a PSA Exec was watching LOL!
Thanks man....believe me, PSA is very aware of my videos...I did something similar on the Rickey Henderson card last year. Same deal: print sheet analysis proved there was no way that card should have a handful of 10's and a 9:10 ratio of over 80:1. But I am sure PSA never intended that collectors would look at their own data to scrutinize their decisions. Thanks for the comment and sub!
I love your heavy use of data in this video. This is the first I've seen from you, but I subscribed based on this. Looking forward to more! You might want to note that a few of the PSA 9's with 10-like centering seem to have a more visible dot in the blue sky above Ryan. That might have been the reason for the 9. I think all of this would be cleared up if PSA gave a text report for each grade of a high-value card, that explains the rationale for their grade.
Thanks Shaun, I really appreciate you considering the research and offering feedback. Yes, those 9's could have disqualifying factors. I would think though that with 65 examples there would be a handful of those 9's that could have been graded a 10.
This is some amazing research and info. I've always thought they were less Ryan's card made cause to us they are harder to find in general. Great video. Definitely something not exactly right with the process.
The numbers don’t lie, as an engineer, I appreciate your diligent statistical analysis. It really is quite frustrating. As someone who has snapped and resubmitted cards hundreds of times to PSA, with higher and lower grades abound, it’s impossible for me to believe the grading is “primarily objective”, it is simply not true.
I appreciate that comment, particularly since I don't have a strong science background. I am beyond frustrated by this behavior from PSA. It tells me that you or I could submit a perfect copy of this card and we would get a 9 because of that "subjective" factor.
It is easy to say that, but you simply have no proof JK. I prefer SGC to PSA or BGS because I like the cases better. I also like them over their competition because they have not had any grading scandals unlike PSA & BGS. They have been around just as long as the other 2 and they have been pretty consistent over the years. When you make comments like this you come of as simply a hater since you have no substance behind your words.
I have looked at SGC and BGS for the Henderson rookie and they are doing the same thing. They don't do it as extreme as PSA does, but they still do it. PSA has such huge market share I feel they are seen as the leaders in the industry and thus should be scrutinized more.
@@tbm9160 there is proof that the other companies do the same thing. Mabey not to the extent that PSA does, but all the grading companies give tougher grades to more desirable cards that people want to collect.
Another great video... I feel "trapped" by the grading process... So much concern over cards being trimmed or altered in raw condition, forces one into the grading scam. But when I watch your video's I wonder if it's a false sense of security that is being sold... Keep up the wonderful work.
Love your video's my friend. Great Work!! Your the Man. Someone needs to expose this. I have always wondered who's grading the graders? Why do collectors put PSA on a pedestal?
I'm sure collectors are willing to overlook a lot as long as the value of their collections keep increasing. As a whole it doesn't seem like collectors really mind.
Great work! I've done some sub research with 40 best out of 100 1990 jordans 2 psa 10s. I wrote email to Joe O and they canceled my membership and sent all six of my quarterly subs back. 😆
Thanks for subscribing. I really hate to tell people "buyer beware" because in this Hobby we should be better than that. I am disgusted by how a few bad actors are dedicated to screwing over everyone else and the institutional players only seem to support and encourage the behavior.
Another fantastic video bud. Well done. PSA is surely up to something. The question is why or perhaps who benefits? How does this help PSA to control the pops of these specific iconic cards? I think you have demonstrated beyond a doubt that do in fact treat certain cards differently than others. The math doesn't lie, especially in addition to your research on condition sensitivity. It's quite clear and plain to see. Who is making the money off of this? I think it is clear that certain card doctors and other schemers had relationships with people at PSA. Did they clean house when the Feds became involved, or is it something PSA was able to cover up? I would think the people who put John Gotti in jail can figure out the schemes going on at PSA. Perhaps it's not a priority for the FBI. Is there an agent digging as deep as you? So many questions. This is great work. Thanks for doing this!
I didn't have time in the video to explore the reasons why PSA could be doing this. If you want to give them the benefit of the doubt, it doesn't even have to be deliberate. Perhaps there is a Hawthorne Effect, where anytime someone looks at a particularly valuable card, they are more likely to examine it extra close and perhaps find flaws they wouldn't take the time to notice on an Earl Wilson. I don't know. There are real benefits to PSA for this though. It creates a mystique for the card and the PSA brand and there is a greater incentive for collectors to keep submitting (and resubmitting) their Ryan rookies. The collectors in the PSA Registry own a lot of these type of cards and their business is extremely important to PSA. Holding down those 10's protects those Registry Members. It could be simple arrogance...PSA thinking they know what's best for collectors and deciding that the Ryan rookie 10 should be an ultra elite card in the Hobby. I'm just speculating on the reasons. I sure would like to hear from PSA why they think there is only 1. They have never offered a rationale before.
Love your content. Too many people think PSA stands for “Perfect Standard Authenticator”. It’s clearly prone to human error and/manipulation. People need to wake up
Thanks...appreciate the comment. I agree. One thing I noticed about the 9's was that most of the ones I found were graded more than 5 years ago. Although I didn't test for it, I suspect the number of 9's PSA is giving out on this card has been greatly reduced in the last few years. I've even thought about analyzing the 8:9 ratio of this card because I think PSA may be suppressing the 9's as well. That analysis is a little more challenging because I think there are more clear differences between an 8 and 9.
Putting on a clinic! Fantastic analysis and a great example of what's possible when you put the time and effort into your research. My question is why would PSA choose that card to control the pop? Is there any incentive for them to keep the pop 10 low? I'd gladly grab one of those well centered 9's instead at a big discount
Thanks Cardi-C...appreciate the feedback, means a lot coming from another analytical thinker. Regarding why the Ryan rookie, I think the same phenomenon is happening with almost all key cards. But this card is seen as one of the top postwar vintage cards to own. It's a poster child for PSA to use to show their brand exclusivity and it creates a market for future submission and resubmissions of people trying to get rich. I am only speculating because the data doesn't exist to prove why they are doing it, only that they are doing it. Interestingly, the Trout rookie has more 10's than 9's and the Hobby hasn't imploded because of it.
@@vintagecardcurator Its almost like trying to prove collusion. Only way you can really prove it is if someone involved at the core of the pop control comes forward and admits to it. Until then, all we can point are the facts and let the viewers/collectors decide if there's fire where there's smoke.
Another great video from a HOF UA-camr. The question I always ask is why do they want to restrict the number of 10’s? What purpose does it serve? Great video as always!!
I have some ideas about why PSA does this John, but without the data to test these theories, I'd only be speculating. Some of these reasons could be non-intentional, like a Hawthorne Effect. Other reasons could benefit PSA financially and as a brand, like protecting Registry members assets and increasing resubmissions. These may/may not be intentional. Ultimately, unless we are in the grading room we can't be 100% sure why PSA is doing this. All the other grading companies do it too. A friend recently pointed out to me that there are more PSA 10 Mike Trout rookies than 9's. So clearly not all cards are pop controlled.
Keith, I assume that Goldin or PWCC were the one's that sold the PSA 10? I thought I read somewhere that the card sold for 600K! Even a PSA 9 of that card is going for thousands as we speak. The Hobby has gone past RED Hot! As usual, your research is impeccable and you know I love the charts and graphs you use. Another Five Star video.. By the way, my channel just passed 100 subscribers last week! I thank you for being one of those. Some people really like what I'm doing on my channel because it's different. You've never made a mediocre video yet and I'm always excited when you pop up in my notifications. So Thank you and lastly, RIP HANK AARON...........I'm a lifetime Braves Fan and this is a tough one......
Hey Todd, congrats on the 100 subs and thank you for being a loyal viewer of this channel. You picked a good time to start a channel...the market has never been hotter. I like your presentation of the cards and the stories. You take the quality seriously and value the viewers time.
Great analysis as usual. My hope is that with a new owner PSA will tighten up their game and just do solid honest grading. That's all we want....a fair arbiter of cards.
Yes, thanks. We all want fair grading for sure. Nat Turner seems like a stand up guy, who embraces technology, so I'm hoping there are changes under his leadership.
An opinion that is not supported with data is simply that...this is NO opinion! Well done. Now I'm interested in the Ryan Rookie as graded by BVG and SGC.
For all of PSA's flaws as a grading company they are still miles and miles above BGS and SGC, i'd like to see some videos in the future calling out those other 2 companies shenanigans as well. Great research and video as always!
Thanks for the comment and sub. There's been some scandal with Beckett before with the Black Label submissions by an ex-employee. I've done some research on SGC, but haven't gone far enough to produce a video. There's definitely some shady history with their owner, enough that I wouldn't patronize them either.
Keep doing what you’re doing. Your definitely on to something which I’ve personally believed has been happening for a long time. Wouldn’t it be funny if the owner of the 1 PSA 10 ‘68 Ryan Rookie was someone high up in PSA or someone who was affiliated with PSA like Ken Goldin? Just something to think about?
Thanks...I appreciate that a lot. Most of the viewers of the video are not subscribers...it's hard to build a channel like this. It means a lot that you subbed.
Your research is great. Well done as always. Any thoughts on the timing of the 10 grades? Meaning, if PSA does pop control, maybe there was a point in time when they decided to do it. So looking at 10 rates before/after that point in time may add to your case. Thank you.
Great question! Yes, the timing is very important. I've been thinking about that a lot and that is where I am turning my attention to next. I'll focus on another key card and try to reconstruct the pop of the PSA 10 over time to see if the % of 10's given by PSA increased or decreased over time. Should help understand this process. There seems to be a feeling among collectors that at some point in time PSA "turns off the 10's" on a particular card. I'd like to test that.
the video that you did on Eddie Murray PSA 10 rookies about the certification numbers running in order, I found the same thing exist on the 1987 PSA 10 classic travel Barry Bonds rookie greenback. There are like 4 straight cards with certification numbers one after the other? Look under Auction prices realized on PSA web page
wow, thanks for pointing that out. I've never heard of that card before. Looks like an outfit named Small Traditions was the consigner...not sure who the submitter was. That does seem suspicious on its face. Of course, I've seen submission returns with hundreds of consecutive 10's, so this doesn't surprise me. Still suspicious though.
@@vintagecardcurator it's even more suspicious when you consider there are only 31 PSA 10's in the so called "rare" greenbacks and 362 in the yellow back.
Not surprising. The one PSA 10 to me does look like it has close enough to 75/25 centering on the back to make the grade. What is interesting is the color on it - it looks a tad lighter / faded especially in the burlap border areas - compared to many of the PSA 9's you showed. That could just be the picture of course. Obviously it's a super sharp card - but to your point, if that is a 10, then many of those 9's likely could have been as well. I think it's pure market control, plain and simple. For the highest priced vintage rookies, PSA knows that the likely owners are going to be high rollers looking to protect their investments. It's obvious to me they feel a special need to protect those folks. If card #177 was Gary Nolan and not Nolan Ryan, there would of course be plenty of 10's. Solid research and analysis again Keith, thank you so much!
Thank you John. Yes, I think there is a factor related to the PSA Registry folks that keeps this kind of arrangement alive. Those guys have floated PSA for a very long time, through good times and bad, and I can imagine a feeling of loyalty to them by PSA management. There are other financial benefits that PSA gets from this type of arrangement too: like brand exclusivity, publicity and a ready market for submissions and resubmissions, to say a few.
That Gem Mint 10 Ryan Rookie not only has awful centering on the back, but also a couple of fuzzy corners. A few of those 9’s look like vastly superior cards.
I just finished putting together a '68 set, and the Ryan of course was the final card. I spent a lot of time looking on ebay, and roughly a dozen or more samples came up daily, most in really nice shape - there is a glut out there and there should be more graded a 10. I finally settled on a 5, which easily could have been a 6, and on a good day maybe even a 7. Sharp corners and edges, just OC a bit. Yeah - there's something going on in PSAville....
Thanks for the comment Mark. I totally agree. There are so many factors that explain why the card should theoretically grade easy. There is only one factor that could explain why it grades tough (edge of sheet). The card is certainly not rare. It should be graded higher that it is in all grades. To me, it's one of the most obvious examples of pop control. Maybe the Rickey Henderson is worse, but they are both indefensible. I appreciate your comment and sharing your experience with this.
By looking at the examples you showed of PSA 9' and 10' I think the difference may come down to the color? Some looked darker color that others as they looked a little faded. Just a thought. Great information as always.
Thank you!! Ever since finding your channel I was hoping you'd make a video exposing the 177 Ryan shenanigans. I collect this set and have a PSA 10 Clay Carroll that looks like shit.
Thanks Doug! I collect '68 too and that card stuck out like a sore thumb. No reason for it to be so hard to find in mint grade. I think this has a lot of carry-over to what is happening today...if people think they are going to open up some '80's Fleer wax and get 10's from PSA, they should be very careful.
Ok, so I think your videos are great and the work you put into them must take you a long time. Just one question.. what does PSA gain from pop control? They get paid to grade, they even get to charge a premium in the event the card is valued higher than the declared value, so they have more reason to grade a card higher than lower - unless I am missing something? Thank you in advance.
@watchtheirhands 2 Well, like you said in your example.. “We all get a cut of the action...” The only problem is, PSA is owned by parent company Collectors Universe (for now) and they are still publicly traded. Which means if they made revenue from some third party, like PWCC... it would stand out like a sore thumb in the public financial documents. Again, I’m back to square one. What does PSA gain from any of this pop control stuff? I’m trying to understand.
@watchtheirhands 2 yea, it would be fascinating to interview a former PSA grader or something just to learn more about how they do things. Maybe someone here knows more about this?
Others have asked why PSA is doing this. I can only speculate since the data isn't there to answer why. Someone in the grading room would have to offer some insight, but it's curious that PSA has never offered an official explanation for a card that is so rare and valuable. But there are some financial benefits that PSA does get out of this situation: 1) increased submissions and resubmissions of this card for collectors hoping for a high grade 2) brand reputation that they are the toughest graders in the Hobby and their slabs carry a premium for that exclusivity, leading to further business 3) protection of the assets of their PSA Registry members, who have been an important component to the financial success of PSA over the long term 4) free and valuable marketing when cards like this go to auction These are just a few I thought of, there may be others. So there are financial incentives to engage in this type of behavior, whether or not it is intentional and deliberate or not.
All the shady selling of PSA slabs go through pwcc auctions or change hands with probstein as well. Talking psa 9 or 10s with noticeable damaged corners or in few cases been grading obvious fake cards which ive seen in baseball and pokemon a bit. Assuming they didn’t fake their own slabs.
that PSA 10 ryan has some printing specks on the black part of koosman. its a nice example but i don't think it should have gotten the 10. on another note, i find the 69 ryan such a cool card. i would want that card over the rookie....plus its the first year ryan is all too himself with the stats on the back.
Nice video! Out of curiosity, what business value is there to grade only 1 Ryan rookie a 10 as opposed to 5 or 6? There is actually a strong business case to be made that grading 5 more 10s in this case would be more beneficial to PSA. I also noticed that some of the 9s you showed as examples that should have been 10s had surface imperfections, but I still agree that some of those should have been 10s. I think this has less to do with PSA intentionally trying to keep the POP down (which would take a rather large, company-wide coordinated effort with a lot of risk involved) as it does with human bias/error in the grading process.
Thanks for the insightful comment. We really don't know the rationale behind this. It could be deliberate and it could be accidental. It could be a Hawthorne Effect or something else. There just isn't the data there to test out the why's. That would take someone in the grading room I think. I do know that PSA has graded more 10's than 9's of the Mike Trout rookie and the market seems to be fine with that. The 9's I showed may/may not be 10's...without looking at them under a loupe it's tough. My point is to show that there are some 9's that look pretty close to 10's as well.
i once own a ryan card with extra length to the card. such as you see on that printing sheet with the extra white left of it. well with the ryan card i had had that extra white right of ryans picture. i don't think all printing sheets were the same with the same location of each card. there may have been variations of the sheet. just wanted to chime in with this info. it is weird how there could only be 1 PSA 10 ryan card. i always thought before any stats were ran that i felt the 68's were easiest of the 60's set to get the 9's and 10's
That's a good question. I would love to see if there are different printing sheets for the 1968 second series. There's 110 cards in that 2nd series and 132 cards printed on the sheet. A number of cards are double printed, so maybe there was a second sheet? From my own collecting and building of sets between 1968-1974 I felt like the 1968 cards were surprisingly easier to find in higher grade compared to later years even.
Thank you for more excellent insight into this ,PSA is definitely being shady to put it lightly,I just wish those who could might change this would watch your videos as we do,We can only hope the new ownership will bring change,
@@vintagecardcurator yeah you have to watch out for those trading card companies I've often wondered are they in cahoots with certain people while our cards don't get the same grade
What do you think of the Artificial intelligence grading cards? Maybe regrading some of the obvious pop control that 3 party graders are possibly doing. All about $. Takes the pureness of the hobby and corrupts it. Would be interesting to let the AI system go back and check some of the 7,8,and 9 Ryan rookie. Thanks
I'm really excited about the possibility of AI...anything to make the grading process more objective. I'll be watching what CSC does and how collectors respond to them. Thanks for the comment!
Yes, especially if you look at cards that were graded in PSA's earlier history, with certification numbers that start with 0, 1 or 2. You will see a lot of that.
I think 8-10 is the most accurate for pokemon cards. Some def being pop controlled. Lots of old cert 10s that would never get a 10 today because they've gotten more difficult. low grades 1-5 it's literally randomized. So inaccurate. No consistency.
I have had a Ryan rookie since mother saved it in a shoe box... it looks pretty good but can't tell if it is a 6 or higher. Had a second one and it was stolen by a person house sitting for us, but didn't notice till months later.
I'm sorry to hear about the theft. That seems to happen a lot with collectors. I'm glad you have a Ryan rookie...one in any condition is worth a lot these days.
PS, I looked and maybe that is a bad example. There are four #196 Gary Nolan's in a PSA 10, lol. But 9-10 ratio that is 63 : 4, so more like 1 to 16...Makes sense.
If they regrade it, they are going to charge you the value of either the 9 or the 10 and that's a substantial grading fee. Most people won't take that chance.
10k cards and only one psa 10. That's statistically that's impossible. And PSA should be investigated by the BBB and a lawsuit needs to be filed for PSA to reimburse any person they clearly are POP controlling. It's illegal and it needs to be stopped
Thanks Mike. It seems like the narrative has flipped in the last few years. Now people pretty much acknowledge that PSA is pop controlling cards. That used to be a tough argument for many people to hear. But now instead I hear people saying PSA has to keep pops low to keep prices high for the top grades. I'm seeing this with ultra modern cards for which there can be hundreds of 10's. Some argue that's bad for the Hobby and that we are entering a junk slab era. I maintain that cards should be grade objectively and fairly and irregardless of the outside financial environment.
More Ryan's are submitted, including low grade, if you have one of the other common (or minor stars if they are) that are edge cards; those are only submitted if they are likely 10s. I know this is not really a 9-10 ratio factor, as a 9 is the price of a car and a 10 is the price of a nice house; but the ratios on commons might skew just because it's only worth subbing if it's centered mint. I have a off center mint card, 30 years ago it would be called mint; now it would grade a 6.
I addressed the issue of commons extensively in the video Bob. But Ryan's ratio is a heavy outlier even amongst top tier HOF'ers like Mantle, Clemente, Bench and Mays. How would explain that?
There's a lot more 10s under PSA guidelines for a lot of cards then PSA pop shows. They got themselves in this position with their lenient centering rules, make a 10 require 52/48 centering top and bottom. Too late now prior 10s would lose value if they did that, and bulk submitting guys would blow a gasket.
yes, they did paint themselves in a corner...I always stay away from zero certification number cards and similar early grades. They won't hold up to today's standards.
I just miss Nolan Ryan to complete this sert It is 99 percent in Near-mint condition. Except Mickey Mantle and Johnny Bench in excellent- mint condition
I don’t know why the movie Tommy Boy comes to mind when I read some of the stuff PSA has done and how people defend them no matter what. As you’ve said it certainly hasn’t slowed down business any but here is the scene. Tommy: Chicken wings! Let's think about this for a sec, Ted, why would somebody put a guarantee on a box? Hmmm, very interesting. Ted Nelson: Go on, I'm listening. Tommy: Here's the way I see it, Ted. Guy puts a fancy guarantee on a box 'cause he wants you to fell all warm and toasty inside. Ted Nelson: Yeah, makes a man feel good. Tommy: 'Course it does. Why shouldn't it? Ya figure you put that little box under your pillow at night, the Guarantee Fairy might come by and leave a quarter, am I right, Ted? Ted Nelson: What's your point? Tommy: The point is, how do you know the fairy isn't a crazy glue sniffer? "Building model airplanes" says the little fairy, well, we're not buying it. He sneaks into your house once, that's all it takes. The next thing you know, there's money missing off the dresser and your daughter's knocked up, I seen it a hundred times. Ted Nelson: But why do they put a guarantee on the box? Tommy: Because they know all they sold ya was a guaranteed piece of shit. That's all it is, isn't it? Hey, if you want me to take a dump in a box and mark it guaranteed, I will. I got spare time. But for now, for your customer's sake, for your daughter's sake, ya might wanna think about buying a quality product from me.
Great research, but I dont see how that shows pop control. Going strictly by the numbers will lead you astray. Its all about the individual cards and once you started showing the photos, you can clearly see that a lot of 9's had centering issues. That leaves what, maybe a handful of cards that are boarder line 9/10s? Thats such a small subset of data, it doesnt really prove anything. Plus, you really need to look at the surface too, which PSA is typically harsh on and images dont show well. BGS doesn't have this card graded higher than a 9 and CSG doesn't have this card graded higher than an 8.5.
It's a shame that grading companies act like this. They know the money that can be made for the customer by getting a 10. It would be way more than they would get even with upcharges. It is a totally dishonest practice and it is done blatantly as if the graders are instructed to do so. Bgs does the same thing as well
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Yet another example of PSA controlling the market. Excellent research and insight.
Thank you sir. I appreciate the comment!
I think you're single-handedly taking down the psa empire. Interesting to see what'll happen w/ new ownership.
Thanks, but PSA has nothing to worry about from me. Most collectors don't care about issues like this. But enough of us do care that it's an important to bring forth.
@@vintagecardcurator i beg to differ. Your videos pull ALOT more weight in the collector community than you give yourself credit for.
Might be time to buy those 5 PSA9 Nolan's and resubmit them after the new owners take over.
Yes he is, he will have to submit to PSA under an alias! Lol - In all seriousness , he makes the best ,most informative videos by far out of anybody in the hobby that I have seen so far. Kudos
Your work is impressive and important. Hopefully the day will come when grading is honest.
Thanks Don! That's what we all want an deserve: honest grading.
You could write a book called "All the PSA Tens". Thank you for this incredibly thorough analysis!
Thanks...that would be a good book! There's a lot of content for it already.
You continue to dazzle us with your outstanding analysis. I am most obliged for your service in shining a light on the data and the cards. Thank you!
Thanks Chuck...thanks for watching and I appreciate your comments and support! This was a long project!
Amazing work as always, Keith! Thank you for the time and research you put into this.
Thanks a lot Jeremy...this was one of those stories that once I learned about it, I couldn't let it go.
That was an amazing video!!! The time, detail, and research you must of put in is astounding. Love the channel and appreciate all your efforts!
Thanks Mick! This video took me two months to put together from research to editing. The response has been great and totally worth it. I really appreciate the feedback.
Appreciate the work you put into these videos.
Thanks a lot...labor of love...but this was a big project!
With the info that you've provided, hopefully the collecting industry will eventually begin to blackball psa and go to another grading company that'll play fair.
They all do the same thing
There is competition coming with the new service CGC is launching. I'm going to be interested to see what collectors think of their objectivity in grading. It's being run by a guy from Beckett.
@@vintagecardcurator I know CGC grades comic book by the tenth such as a 9.6.. I don't think they have ever graded a perfect 10 or even a 9.9 in a comic book. This would be a good way to really focus on a true mint grade. So a 9.4 might have the back centering issue and a 9.7 would not.
@@vintagecardcurator Doubt it. If you watch the auction block on eBay you'll ALWAYS see Beckett listings saying, PSA 10? on their 9 and 9.5. Explain that.
What's to explain? PSA has the predominant market share in the Hobby.
Always like watching these and learning. Great research and presentation!
Thanks...I'm glad it was helpful. Appreciate the comment!
Great video as always Keith! Love the research you put into this! I just don’t get PSA sometimes, I wish they would just grade objectively! Awesome to see you doing a video! I hope you had a nice holiday season!
Thanks Jim! Yes, the holidays were busy...part of the reason it's been so long since I released a video. I started it before Thanksgiving!
Your videos are always super informative. I actually have a Ryan rookie that should grade a 6 that I haven't sent in yet. Been holding onto it to send to CGCs new grading company CSG. They used to specialize in comic books but I really hope they are successful because we need other options. I'm sending them 10 of my best cards when they start accepting subs.
I've got two Nolan Ryan rookie cards that were graded in a six you don't get too many Ryan cards that grade real good
I wonder if PSA sold the company as part of a plea deal they made behind closed doors with the FBI. I love all the hours and hard work you must have put into these videos for all of us, thank you very much.
No, the sale had nothing to do with the FBI investigation. There's no talk of any charges against them. The shareholders just got offered a good price for their shares and they accepted.
@@vintagecardcurator That's how back door plea deals work, you never hear anything. I spent years working in the Police HQ on Baltimore street in Baltimore. I've talked with court guards and judges a lot about it, makes them sick but its how you get convictions, once again another crooked system.
some plea deals enable you to walk as long as you leave the business or sell your company or step down as CEO, its all the same, PSA has had hundreds of buy out bids over the years and turned them all down, until the heat was on.
it took a lot of effort and time to make this video… Thank you!
Quality outstanding research and well narrated, this video and your channel should have more view and more subs!
Thanks so much, I appreciate the kind words of support and the sub. Videos like this take a lot of time and that makes it difficult to build a sustainable audience. I'll keep working at it!
So good to see a new video from you Keith. Someone brought up your channel the other day. We were all talking about how your one of the best on YT. So glad to see a new video from you. I must admit that I have been looking at SGC cards instead of PSA cards because of their trimming and altered cards problems from a year and 1/2 ago or so. The sale of the company has given me a bit more hope for the future of PSA. We are getting closer to the day where computers will be doing some of the grading. I think PSA's new ownership will be at the forefront of this. That being said, the Ryan RC is the centerpiece of my PC, though mine is just an incredible looking PSA 7. I hope your doing great my friend. Thank you for sharing.
Thanks...I always appreciate your comments. Believe it or not I am still buying PSA cards. I think there is a lot the company does right and I want them to strive to live up to the expectation collectors have for them. I have not tried SGC yet. I know there was a lot of buzz about them in the spring but I have seen many collectors disappointed by their experiences. And their ownership turns me off because of a lack of ethics in the past.
I'm excited by CGC and the use of AI to grade. No doubt PSA will be making steps in that direction too. It has the potential to help. But there's two critical questions I would have: how are they handling the tolerances of card sizes? and can they differentiate between an edge that was cut by Topps in the 1960's and one cut by a card doctor in 2021? PSA seems to fail on the first question and I don't think they pass the second one either.
I still buy PSA as well, but trying to stick to mid-level grades. I'm excited for AI getting implemented as it will bring a lot of trust that was lost over the last few years back into the hobby. Will be interesting to see what CGC brings as they have so much experience in other collectible markets. Hoping between them & PSA' s new ownership it will force a change onto every other company. I think the reason most are not happy with SGC is the lower resale value compared to PSA. Since selling is an exception for me, I don't worry about that. I think the cases look great and at times you can get a better looking card for cheaper because its not in the PSA holder.
That's a good point...if you looking to buy for your PC, you can get value buying SGC cards.
That is extremely detailed information. Thanks
LOVE THIS...Your research has helped Me make informed decisions. Now I have a TIKTOK and I'm sendind folks to watch these PSA videos
Thanks Charly! I know a lot of people in the Hobby don't want to talk about this side of it.
Great analysis. Love the work put into this. First vid watched on your channel - not the last. New sub.
Thanks for subbing my friend. I appreciate the support. I am going to start work on a new project soon.
Dig those that can compute like this. Great video thank you !
Very informative. Appreciate your work.
Thanks so much for your comment James. I appreciate your viewing the video.
I missed out on the lottery, so my 5 is going to have to do.
I think you are missing the point of the video
Justin Koeberl , my comment got 3 thumbs up Karen
I'm sure your 5 looks great...🤣...Karen....
I'm happy with mine too Greg.
Great research as usual, thanks for being a credit to the hobby.
Thanks so much for your comment. I appreciate that other collectors find the research helpful.
This is so spot on right now we need this for the market for The collector for the future of the hobby this is such a great video I can't even explain it in words we need more videos like this and more people to see them and more people in the hobby to understand that this is it's gone on for so long then it should not be acceptable anymore and I think some people are starting to get the hint hopefully things will begin to change such a great example man hats off to you cheers
Thanks for the high praise James, I really appreciate that feedback!
Stepping up your research GAME! ... loved how you went next level by showing the ratio's of the cards around the Ryan on the sheet ... the was the Oh SHiIT moment if a PSA Exec was watching LOL!
Thanks man....believe me, PSA is very aware of my videos...I did something similar on the Rickey Henderson card last year. Same deal: print sheet analysis proved there was no way that card should have a handful of 10's and a 9:10 ratio of over 80:1.
But I am sure PSA never intended that collectors would look at their own data to scrutinize their decisions.
Thanks for the comment and sub!
I love your heavy use of data in this video. This is the first I've seen from you, but I subscribed based on this. Looking forward to more!
You might want to note that a few of the PSA 9's with 10-like centering seem to have a more visible dot in the blue sky above Ryan. That might have been the reason for the 9.
I think all of this would be cleared up if PSA gave a text report for each grade of a high-value card, that explains the rationale for their grade.
Thanks Shaun, I really appreciate you considering the research and offering feedback. Yes, those 9's could have disqualifying factors. I would think though that with 65 examples there would be a handful of those 9's that could have been graded a 10.
Excellent video!!
Thank you so much!
Well done! Very thorough!
Thanks Ken...I appreciate the feedback!
This is some amazing research and info. I've always thought they were less Ryan's card made cause to us they are harder to find in general. Great video. Definitely something not exactly right with the process.
The numbers don’t lie, as an engineer, I appreciate your diligent statistical analysis. It really is quite frustrating. As someone who has snapped and resubmitted cards hundreds of times to PSA, with higher and lower grades abound, it’s impossible for me to believe the grading is “primarily objective”, it is simply not true.
I appreciate that comment, particularly since I don't have a strong science background. I am beyond frustrated by this behavior from PSA. It tells me that you or I could submit a perfect copy of this card and we would get a 9 because of that "subjective" factor.
Great info, thank you 🙏
As usual another awesome video
thanks...I won't wait 2 months this next time Don!
Compare other grading companies "9/10" ratio to determine if it's PSA doing population control
What makes you think other grading companies don't do the same thing
It is easy to say that, but you simply have no proof JK. I prefer SGC to PSA or BGS because I like the cases better. I also like them over their competition because they have not had any grading scandals unlike PSA & BGS. They have been around just as long as the other 2 and they have been pretty consistent over the years. When you make comments like this you come of as simply a hater since you have no substance behind your words.
I have looked at SGC and BGS for the Henderson rookie and they are doing the same thing. They don't do it as extreme as PSA does, but they still do it. PSA has such huge market share I feel they are seen as the leaders in the industry and thus should be scrutinized more.
@@tbm9160 there is proof that the other companies do the same thing. Mabey not to the extent that PSA does, but all the grading companies give tougher grades to more desirable cards that people want to collect.
I hear you JK. It definitely happens to some degree.
Another great video... I feel "trapped" by the grading process... So much concern over cards being trimmed or altered in raw condition, forces one into the grading scam. But when I watch your video's I wonder if it's a false sense of security that is being sold...
Keep up the wonderful work.
Thanks a lot for the comment and the sub. The more I dig, the less I like. I see so many shaker PSA slabs on eBay. Makes me wonder.
That's why you buy ungraded cards from a reliable dealer you have a better chance of getting authentic cards
I been saying that some of those 9s are really 10s.... glad I found this video proving my theory right all along
Love your video's my friend. Great Work!! Your the Man. Someone needs to expose this. I have always wondered who's grading the graders? Why do collectors put PSA on a pedestal?
I'm sure collectors are willing to overlook a lot as long as the value of their collections keep increasing. As a whole it doesn't seem like collectors really mind.
Amazing work. Thank you.
Thanks! Appreciate it!
Thank you for exposing this. Great work on your videos.
Thanks Mike...I appreciate it!
Great work! I've done some sub research with 40 best out of 100 1990 jordans 2 psa 10s. I wrote email to Joe O and they canceled my membership and sent all six of my quarterly subs back. 😆
Damn. Joe is a very vindictive man when it comes to any criticism of PSA.
What did your research find?
New subscriber... just waltzing back into the hobby. Your awesome research makes me proceed with caution.
Thanks for subscribing. I really hate to tell people "buyer beware" because in this Hobby we should be better than that. I am disgusted by how a few bad actors are dedicated to screwing over everyone else and the institutional players only seem to support and encourage the behavior.
Another fantastic video bud. Well done. PSA is surely up to something. The question is why or perhaps who benefits? How does this help PSA to control the pops of these specific iconic cards? I think you have demonstrated beyond a doubt that do in fact treat certain cards differently than others. The math doesn't lie, especially in addition to your research on condition sensitivity. It's quite clear and plain to see. Who is making the money off of this? I think it is clear that certain card doctors and other schemers had relationships with people at PSA. Did they clean house when the Feds became involved, or is it something PSA was able to cover up? I would think the people who put John Gotti in jail can figure out the schemes going on at PSA. Perhaps it's not a priority for the FBI. Is there an agent digging as deep as you? So many questions. This is great work. Thanks for doing this!
I didn't have time in the video to explore the reasons why PSA could be doing this. If you want to give them the benefit of the doubt, it doesn't even have to be deliberate. Perhaps there is a Hawthorne Effect, where anytime someone looks at a particularly valuable card, they are more likely to examine it extra close and perhaps find flaws they wouldn't take the time to notice on an Earl Wilson. I don't know.
There are real benefits to PSA for this though. It creates a mystique for the card and the PSA brand and there is a greater incentive for collectors to keep submitting (and resubmitting) their Ryan rookies. The collectors in the PSA Registry own a lot of these type of cards and their business is extremely important to PSA. Holding down those 10's protects those Registry Members. It could be simple arrogance...PSA thinking they know what's best for collectors and deciding that the Ryan rookie 10 should be an ultra elite card in the Hobby.
I'm just speculating on the reasons. I sure would like to hear from PSA why they think there is only 1. They have never offered a rationale before.
@@vintagecardcurator interesting.
Love your content. Too many people think PSA stands for “Perfect Standard Authenticator”. It’s clearly prone to human error and/manipulation. People need to wake up
Love the analysis
Thanks a lot!
Great video. Definitely pop controlled. I’ve seen so many Bench and Ryan rookies in a 8 or 9 that look identical to their PSA counterpart(s).
Thanks...appreciate the comment. I agree. One thing I noticed about the 9's was that most of the ones I found were graded more than 5 years ago. Although I didn't test for it, I suspect the number of 9's PSA is giving out on this card has been greatly reduced in the last few years.
I've even thought about analyzing the 8:9 ratio of this card because I think PSA may be suppressing the 9's as well. That analysis is a little more challenging because I think there are more clear differences between an 8 and 9.
@@vintagecardcurator So many Nolan Ryan fans, they know that card is a cash cow for them.
Putting on a clinic! Fantastic analysis and a great example of what's possible when you put the time and effort into your research. My question is why would PSA choose that card to control the pop? Is there any incentive for them to keep the pop 10 low? I'd gladly grab one of those well centered 9's instead at a big discount
Thanks Cardi-C...appreciate the feedback, means a lot coming from another analytical thinker.
Regarding why the Ryan rookie, I think the same phenomenon is happening with almost all key cards. But this card is seen as one of the top postwar vintage cards to own. It's a poster child for PSA to use to show their brand exclusivity and it creates a market for future submission and resubmissions of people trying to get rich. I am only speculating because the data doesn't exist to prove why they are doing it, only that they are doing it.
Interestingly, the Trout rookie has more 10's than 9's and the Hobby hasn't imploded because of it.
@@vintagecardcurator Its almost like trying to prove collusion. Only way you can really prove it is if someone involved at the core of the pop control comes forward and admits to it. Until then, all we can point are the facts and let the viewers/collectors decide if there's fire where there's smoke.
Another great video from a HOF UA-camr. The question I always ask is why do they want to restrict the number of 10’s? What purpose does it serve? Great video as always!!
I have some ideas about why PSA does this John, but without the data to test these theories, I'd only be speculating. Some of these reasons could be non-intentional, like a Hawthorne Effect. Other reasons could benefit PSA financially and as a brand, like protecting Registry members assets and increasing resubmissions. These may/may not be intentional. Ultimately, unless we are in the grading room we can't be 100% sure why PSA is doing this. All the other grading companies do it too.
A friend recently pointed out to me that there are more PSA 10 Mike Trout rookies than 9's. So clearly not all cards are pop controlled.
Wow, that was a ton of research. Thank you.
Thanks...I appreciate the view and comment!
Keith, I assume that Goldin or PWCC were the one's that sold the PSA 10? I thought I read somewhere that the card sold for 600K! Even a PSA 9 of that card is going for thousands as we speak. The Hobby has gone past RED Hot! As usual, your research is impeccable and you know I love the charts and graphs you use. Another Five Star video.. By the way, my channel just passed 100 subscribers last week! I thank you for being one of those. Some people really like what I'm doing on my channel because it's different. You've never made a mediocre video yet and I'm always excited when you pop up in my notifications. So Thank you and lastly, RIP HANK AARON...........I'm a lifetime Braves Fan and this is a tough one......
Congratulations on 100 subs Todd. I'm going to check out your channel now.
Hey Todd, congrats on the 100 subs and thank you for being a loyal viewer of this channel. You picked a good time to start a channel...the market has never been hotter. I like your presentation of the cards and the stories. You take the quality seriously and value the viewers time.
@@vintagecardcurator Thanks very much Keith!
Great analysis as usual. My hope is that with a new owner PSA will tighten up their game and just do solid honest grading. That's all we want....a fair arbiter of cards.
Yes, thanks. We all want fair grading for sure. Nat Turner seems like a stand up guy, who embraces technology, so I'm hoping there are changes under his leadership.
An opinion that is not supported with data is simply that...this is NO opinion! Well done. Now I'm interested in the Ryan Rookie as graded by BVG and SGC.
Thank you Craig!
Great video.
Thanks!
For all of PSA's flaws as a grading company they are still miles and miles above BGS and SGC, i'd like to see some videos in the future calling out those other 2 companies shenanigans as well. Great research and video as always!
Thanks for the comment and sub. There's been some scandal with Beckett before with the Black Label submissions by an ex-employee. I've done some research on SGC, but haven't gone far enough to produce a video. There's definitely some shady history with their owner, enough that I wouldn't patronize them either.
Keep doing what you’re doing. Your definitely on to something which I’ve personally believed has been happening for a long time. Wouldn’t it be funny if the owner of the 1 PSA 10 ‘68 Ryan Rookie was someone high up in PSA or someone who was affiliated with PSA like Ken Goldin? Just something to think about?
What irks me is many of the 10s seen in this video are off centered. A 10 should be a 10. That 60/40 tolerance is ridiculous. Great video!
Eye popping research. Thanks for the insight.. P.S. I have a psa 4 Ryan
Can't wait !!!!!!!!
Great job as always. The data definitely supports your argument
Thanks Bart...it's important to be led by the data. PSA's own data even.
Loved the video. You got a new subscriber in me!
Thanks...I appreciate that a lot. Most of the viewers of the video are not subscribers...it's hard to build a channel like this. It means a lot that you subbed.
Great video Keith. I'm hoping PSA's new ownership group will restore my trust in their services.
I hope so too Bill...Nate Turner seems like a good guy, genuinely interested in the Hobby and not afraid of technology.
Your research is great. Well done as always. Any thoughts on the timing of the 10 grades? Meaning, if PSA does pop control, maybe there was a point in time when they decided to do it. So looking at 10 rates before/after that point in time may add to your case. Thank you.
Great question! Yes, the timing is very important. I've been thinking about that a lot and that is where I am turning my attention to next. I'll focus on another key card and try to reconstruct the pop of the PSA 10 over time to see if the % of 10's given by PSA increased or decreased over time. Should help understand this process. There seems to be a feeling among collectors that at some point in time PSA "turns off the 10's" on a particular card. I'd like to test that.
the video that you did on Eddie Murray PSA 10 rookies about the certification numbers running in order, I found the same thing exist on the 1987 PSA 10 classic travel Barry Bonds rookie greenback. There are like 4 straight cards with certification numbers one after the other? Look under Auction prices realized on PSA web page
wow, thanks for pointing that out. I've never heard of that card before. Looks like an outfit named Small Traditions was the consigner...not sure who the submitter was. That does seem suspicious on its face. Of course, I've seen submission returns with hundreds of consecutive 10's, so this doesn't surprise me. Still suspicious though.
@@vintagecardcurator it's even more suspicious when you consider there are only 31 PSA 10's in the so called "rare" greenbacks and 362 in the yellow back.
Not surprising. The one PSA 10 to me does look like it has close enough to 75/25 centering on the back to make the grade. What is interesting is the color on it - it looks a tad lighter / faded especially in the burlap border areas - compared to many of the PSA 9's you showed. That could just be the picture of course. Obviously it's a super sharp card - but to your point, if that is a 10, then many of those 9's likely could have been as well. I think it's pure market control, plain and simple. For the highest priced vintage rookies, PSA knows that the likely owners are going to be high rollers looking to protect their investments. It's obvious to me they feel a special need to protect those folks. If card #177 was Gary Nolan and not Nolan Ryan, there would of course be plenty of 10's. Solid research and analysis again Keith, thank you so much!
Thank you John. Yes, I think there is a factor related to the PSA Registry folks that keeps this kind of arrangement alive. Those guys have floated PSA for a very long time, through good times and bad, and I can imagine a feeling of loyalty to them by PSA management.
There are other financial benefits that PSA gets from this type of arrangement too: like brand exclusivity, publicity and a ready market for submissions and resubmissions, to say a few.
Outstanding video sir. If you want to dive even deeper take a look at the 86 topps Jerry Rice. Its beyond shameless what PSA is doing.
How bad is the pop control on that? I don’t collect football
That Gem Mint 10 Ryan Rookie not only has awful centering on the back, but also a couple of fuzzy corners. A few of those 9’s look like vastly superior cards.
I just finished putting together a '68 set, and the Ryan of course was the final card. I spent a lot of time looking on ebay, and roughly a dozen or more samples came up daily, most in really nice shape - there is a glut out there and there should be more graded a 10. I finally settled on a 5, which easily could have been a 6, and on a good day maybe even a 7. Sharp corners and edges, just OC a bit. Yeah - there's something going on in PSAville....
Thanks for the comment Mark. I totally agree. There are so many factors that explain why the card should theoretically grade easy. There is only one factor that could explain why it grades tough (edge of sheet). The card is certainly not rare. It should be graded higher that it is in all grades. To me, it's one of the most obvious examples of pop control. Maybe the Rickey Henderson is worse, but they are both indefensible. I appreciate your comment and sharing your experience with this.
Great Video. Damn....
Thanks a lot!
By looking at the examples you showed of PSA 9' and 10' I think the difference may come down to the color? Some looked darker color that others as they looked a little faded. Just a thought. Great information as always.
Could be color...it's so difficult to assess with just pictures, yet that's all we have.
Thank you!! Ever since finding your channel I was hoping you'd make a video exposing the 177 Ryan shenanigans. I collect this set and have a PSA 10 Clay Carroll that looks like shit.
Thanks Doug! I collect '68 too and that card stuck out like a sore thumb. No reason for it to be so hard to find in mint grade.
I think this has a lot of carry-over to what is happening today...if people think they are going to open up some '80's Fleer wax and get 10's from PSA, they should be very careful.
Amazing video as always! #populationcontrol
Thanks man. Yeah, I think the Hobby is coming around to accepting that key cards are pop controlled.
Ok, so I think your videos are great and the work you put into them must take you a long time. Just one question.. what does PSA gain from pop control? They get paid to grade, they even get to charge a premium in the event the card is valued higher than the declared value, so they have more reason to grade a card higher than lower - unless I am missing something? Thank you in advance.
@watchtheirhands 2 Well, like you said in your example.. “We all get a cut of the action...”
The only problem is, PSA is owned by parent company Collectors Universe (for now) and they are still publicly traded. Which means if they made revenue from some third party, like PWCC... it would stand out like a sore thumb in the public financial documents.
Again, I’m back to square one. What does PSA gain from any of this pop control stuff? I’m trying to understand.
@watchtheirhands 2 yea, it would be fascinating to interview a former PSA grader or something just to learn more about how they do things. Maybe someone here knows more about this?
Others have asked why PSA is doing this. I can only speculate since the data isn't there to answer why. Someone in the grading room would have to offer some insight, but it's curious that PSA has never offered an official explanation for a card that is so rare and valuable.
But there are some financial benefits that PSA does get out of this situation:
1) increased submissions and resubmissions of this card for collectors hoping for a high grade
2) brand reputation that they are the toughest graders in the Hobby and their slabs carry a premium for that exclusivity, leading to further business
3) protection of the assets of their PSA Registry members, who have been an important component to the financial success of PSA over the long term
4) free and valuable marketing when cards like this go to auction
These are just a few I thought of, there may be others. So there are financial incentives to engage in this type of behavior, whether or not it is intentional and deliberate or not.
@@vintagecardcurator Definitely food for thought. Thanks for responding.
Please come back and make videos again!
Thanks. I haven't had much motivation for videos lately and I stay pretty busy this time of year riding my motorcycles.
As a kid for me that was always the Koosman rookie.
All the shady selling of PSA slabs go through pwcc auctions or change hands with probstein as well. Talking psa 9 or 10s with noticeable damaged corners or in few cases been grading obvious fake cards which ive seen in baseball and pokemon a bit. Assuming they didn’t fake their own slabs.
that PSA 10 ryan has some printing specks on the black part of koosman. its a nice example but i don't think it should have gotten the 10. on another note, i find the 69 ryan such a cool card. i would want that card over the rookie....plus its the first year ryan is all too himself with the stats on the back.
Nice video!
Out of curiosity, what business value is there to grade only 1 Ryan rookie a 10 as opposed to 5 or 6? There is actually a strong business case to be made that grading 5 more 10s in this case would be more beneficial to PSA.
I also noticed that some of the 9s you showed as examples that should have been 10s had surface imperfections, but I still agree that some of those should have been 10s.
I think this has less to do with PSA intentionally trying to keep the POP down (which would take a rather large, company-wide coordinated effort with a lot of risk involved) as it does with human bias/error in the grading process.
Thanks for the insightful comment. We really don't know the rationale behind this. It could be deliberate and it could be accidental. It could be a Hawthorne Effect or something else. There just isn't the data there to test out the why's. That would take someone in the grading room I think. I do know that PSA has graded more 10's than 9's of the Mike Trout rookie and the market seems to be fine with that.
The 9's I showed may/may not be 10's...without looking at them under a loupe it's tough. My point is to show that there are some 9's that look pretty close to 10's as well.
@@vintagecardcurator Yep, I agree, it’s definitely odd and worth pointing out! Thanks for the response and the video.
i once own a ryan card with extra length to the card. such as you see on that printing sheet with the extra white left of it. well with the ryan card i had had that extra white right of ryans picture. i don't think all printing sheets were the same with the same location of each card. there may have been variations of the sheet. just wanted to chime in with this info. it is weird how there could only be 1 PSA 10 ryan card. i always thought before any stats were ran that i felt the 68's were easiest of the 60's set to get the 9's and 10's
That's a good question. I would love to see if there are different printing sheets for the 1968 second series. There's 110 cards in that 2nd series and 132 cards printed on the sheet. A number of cards are double printed, so maybe there was a second sheet?
From my own collecting and building of sets between 1968-1974 I felt like the 1968 cards were surprisingly easier to find in higher grade compared to later years even.
Thank you for more excellent insight into this ,PSA is definitely being shady to put it lightly,I just wish those who could might change this would watch your videos as we do,We can only hope the new ownership will bring change,
I hope there is change too. The new owner seems like the kind of guy that can inject some consistency and honesty into the process.
@@vintagecardcurator yeah you have to watch out for those trading card companies I've often wondered are they in cahoots with certain people while our cards don't get the same grade
What do you think of the Artificial intelligence grading cards? Maybe regrading some of the obvious pop control that 3 party graders are possibly doing. All about $. Takes the pureness of the hobby and corrupts it. Would be interesting to let the AI system go back and check some of the 7,8,and 9 Ryan rookie. Thanks
I'm really excited about the possibility of AI...anything to make the grading process more objective. I'll be watching what CSC does and how collectors respond to them.
Thanks for the comment!
I have a Milton Bradley Ryan rookie pulled directly from the game. Wonder how many graders have gotten that wrong and not noted it.
I bet a lot. I have tried to tell the difference in photos and I am not good at it. Seems challenging to me.
Amazing data and breakdown, conclusion...shady stuff going on.
Thanks for the view and the comment!
I have seen PSA graded a card in excellent -- mint condition that looks like very good condition
Yes, especially if you look at cards that were graded in PSA's earlier history, with certification numbers that start with 0, 1 or 2. You will see a lot of that.
I think 8-10 is the most accurate for pokemon cards.
Some def being pop controlled.
Lots of old cert 10s that would never get a 10 today because they've gotten more difficult.
low grades 1-5 it's literally randomized. So inaccurate. No consistency.
Thanks for the comment...I appreciate that some Pokemon collectors are coming over to watch the content and see if it's applicable to their world.
I have had a Ryan rookie since mother saved it in a shoe box... it looks pretty good but can't tell if it is a 6 or higher. Had a second one and it was stolen by a person house sitting for us, but didn't notice till months later.
I'm sorry to hear about the theft. That seems to happen a lot with collectors. I'm glad you have a Ryan rookie...one in any condition is worth a lot these days.
PS, I looked and maybe that is a bad example. There are four #196 Gary Nolan's in a PSA 10, lol. But 9-10 ratio that is 63 : 4, so more like 1 to 16...Makes sense.
This is why I use BGS.
I recommend taking primo nines to a show (with psa there) and ask psa to regrade it.
If they regrade it, they are going to charge you the value of either the 9 or the 10 and that's a substantial grading fee. Most people won't take that chance.
Cool
10k cards and only one psa 10. That's statistically that's impossible. And PSA should be investigated by the BBB and a lawsuit needs to be filed for PSA to reimburse any person they clearly are POP controlling. It's illegal and it needs to be stopped
The big factor I've run across for 10 years plus now is the return address and affiliates. Card integrity is second, or maybe i simply dreamt that
That seems to be the prevailing thought among collectors...
POP control for sure.
Thanks Mike. It seems like the narrative has flipped in the last few years. Now people pretty much acknowledge that PSA is pop controlling cards. That used to be a tough argument for many people to hear. But now instead I hear people saying PSA has to keep pops low to keep prices high for the top grades. I'm seeing this with ultra modern cards for which there can be hundreds of 10's. Some argue that's bad for the Hobby and that we are entering a junk slab era. I maintain that cards should be grade objectively and fairly and irregardless of the outside financial environment.
More Ryan's are submitted, including low grade, if you have one of the other common (or minor stars if they are) that are edge cards; those are only submitted if they are likely 10s. I know this is not really a 9-10 ratio factor, as a 9 is the price of a car and a 10 is the price of a nice house; but the ratios on commons might skew just because it's only worth subbing if it's centered mint. I have a off center mint card, 30 years ago it would be called mint; now it would grade a 6.
This makes me sad for all of the damaged cards Ive bought that were centered on front and back.
I addressed the issue of commons extensively in the video Bob. But Ryan's ratio is a heavy outlier even amongst top tier HOF'ers like Mantle, Clemente, Bench and Mays. How would explain that?
I would love to see all these Ryan's cracked and ran through TAG.
We know what the answer would be...
There's a lot more 10s under PSA guidelines for a lot of cards then PSA pop shows. They got themselves in this position with their lenient centering rules, make a 10 require 52/48 centering top and bottom. Too late now prior 10s would lose value if they did that, and bulk submitting guys would blow a gasket.
yes, they did paint themselves in a corner...I always stay away from zero certification number cards and similar early grades. They won't hold up to today's standards.
I just miss Nolan Ryan to complete this sert It is 99 percent in Near-mint condition. Except Mickey Mantle and Johnny Bench in excellent- mint condition
Let’s go
I don’t know why the movie Tommy Boy comes to mind when I read some of the stuff PSA has done and how people defend them no matter what. As you’ve said it certainly hasn’t slowed down business any but here is the scene.
Tommy: Chicken wings! Let's think about this for a sec, Ted, why would somebody put a guarantee on a box? Hmmm, very interesting.
Ted Nelson: Go on, I'm listening.
Tommy: Here's the way I see it, Ted. Guy puts a fancy guarantee on a box 'cause he wants you to fell all warm and toasty inside.
Ted Nelson: Yeah, makes a man feel good.
Tommy: 'Course it does. Why shouldn't it? Ya figure you put that little box under your pillow at night, the Guarantee Fairy might come by and leave a quarter, am I right, Ted?
Ted Nelson: What's your point?
Tommy: The point is, how do you know the fairy isn't a crazy glue sniffer? "Building model airplanes" says the little fairy, well, we're not buying it. He sneaks into your house once, that's all it takes. The next thing you know, there's money missing off the dresser and your daughter's knocked up, I seen it a hundred times.
Ted Nelson: But why do they put a guarantee on the box?
Tommy: Because they know all they sold ya was a guaranteed piece of shit. That's all it is, isn't it? Hey, if you want me to take a dump in a box and mark it guaranteed, I will. I got spare time. But for now, for your customer's sake, for your daughter's sake, ya might wanna think about buying a quality product from me.
ha ha ha, yeah, good comparison. PSA's much touted guarantee meant zip when the trimmed cards started getting returned to PWCC.
How do you get a card rated? I have this card.
You can send it to one of the grading companies: PSA, SGC, Beckett, HGA, CGS, etc.
Great research, but I dont see how that shows pop control. Going strictly by the numbers will lead you astray. Its all about the individual cards and once you started showing the photos, you can clearly see that a lot of 9's had centering issues. That leaves what, maybe a handful of cards that are boarder line 9/10s? Thats such a small subset of data, it doesnt really prove anything. Plus, you really need to look at the surface too, which PSA is typically harsh on and images dont show well. BGS doesn't have this card graded higher than a 9 and CSG doesn't have this card graded higher than an 8.5.
The Ryan is generally off center side to side, not really top to bottom. You should check it against the cards in the same row.
It's a shame that grading companies act like this. They know the money that can be made for the customer by getting a 10. It would be way more than they would get even with upcharges. It is a totally dishonest practice and it is done blatantly as if the graders are instructed to do so. Bgs does the same thing as well