Altered, Slabbed & Popped: Are Trimmed Cards Behind the Rapid Rise in Pop Counts?
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- Опубліковано 29 вер 2019
- Have you ever gotten a new auction catalog or seen an auction listing on eBay and wonder where all these PSA 9 and 10 vintage cards (with the new PSA labels) come from? I have too. Quite accidentally I discovered that one card had an extraordinary rise in its pop count in just a short time. I decided to research other cards to see just how prevalent it is for vintage cards to have an increase in pop counts. The results are troubling to me. Common sense should say that there shouldn’t be this many new high grade vintage cards passing through PSA. What do you think?
To start I identified some well-known vintage cards and then pored over PSA’s Auction Prices Realized section to find past auctions. I read the actual listings of the auctions and was able to pull out pop counts for the cards at specific points in time. Doing this over and over again revealed a time-line for the pops over time.
I also needed to identify the certification numbers of the new cards that were graded by PSA. I did this by finding UA-cam videos of PSA Reveals that were uploaded around the time period I was researching. So for example, if I knew the pop of the Mantle expanded greatly after November 2016 I could go to a PSA Reveal video uploaded then. That led me to knowing that the certification numbers of the Mantle cards should start after 262.
Special thanks to these UA-camrs for the use of their videos in this project:
Pokemon Cards - Gold Star & Shining Pokemon Card PSA Return Results!!
Uploaded by Evolutionaries Gaming, 10/5/16
• Pokémon Cards - Gold S...
15 Card PSA Submission Reveal, courtesy of MikeO
Uploaded 10/24/17
• 15 Card PSA Submission...
PSA Reveal!! Pop 1/1, Courtesy of baldrhino
Uploaded 11/22/18
• PSA Reveal!! Pop 1/1
Instagram: vintage_card_curator
Email me: backyardmysteries@aol.com - Спорт
The pair of "thumbs down" on this video were left by Gary Moser and Brent Huigens.
You got that right on!
Well, I think one is named Dave, ha ha. But usually I get Gary, Brent, David and Joe joining them.
In the wake of Slabgate, you are definitely a top-notch cardboard detective. Thanks for the awesome insight. ⚾️
Thanks Tony. Most of the work is being done by others. It was good to be able to contribute something myself.
Vintage Card Curator ::: AWESOME!!
What's slab gate?
Could we weigh the cards to determine if it's been cut or not? Surly cutting off a edges of a card would make it weigh noticeably less.
As a lifelong card collector it’s a relief to see the credibility of grading be debated. I hate to see the market flooded with tampering and knock offs
I wish more people cared about the integrity of the Hobby. In 2021 it's all about the money.
I refused to buy graded back in day and missed some great cards but absolutely hate it now. I own 3 graded cards and nothing above a 9.
One technique I use to detect "trimmed" cards is to look at the edges with a loupe. Older cards, which were originally trimmed at its date of origin, will exhibit expansion of the corrugation on the edge. Even if the card has been in a protective case. This is a natural occurrence as time will cause the corrugation to expand and contract. A recently trimmed card will show the corrugation on the edges to be tight with no expansion. In addition, look for some color bleeding as another technique to make a card look better is a clothes iron. A iron on the lowest setting will make the edges and corners sharper, however, it will also cause "bleeding" of the ink.
Thanks Westley, this is really important. Can you say more about what the expansion of the corrugation of the edge looks like? I pulled out my loupe and examined some of my original cards and couldn't tell.
Great video Keith and excellent detective work. It's pretty unreal how many high grade vintage cards have been graded in the past 4-5 years.
Thanks Andy! Thanks for watching.
Outstanding video!
I really enjoy watching your channel and admire your clear and concise research.
Thanks my friend. I appreciate your feedback...I love your channel. You are concise yourself.
Thanks again for another great video Keith and for all the time consuming hard work you put into it.
Thanks! I can't help myself. I love this stuff!
amazing work once again. Moving forward SGC is my vintage grader of choice. Will be selling off any high grade vintage of PSA I have
Eliteco3 will you be listing the cards in your eBay store? I am interested in your high grade vintage PSA collection
I think I have to look at selling off my high grade PSA cards too. I don't want to be caught holding them if the value takes a big hit.
Incredible series!!! Please keep you the great work, Sir.
Thank you my friend. I'm continuing to work on this issue as we speak with some additional data. My videos soon.
Has 60 Minutes called you yet? Because you should be hitting that investigative journalism circuit very soon, amazing as always. No, none of it is "natural" and the brilliant work corndog has been doing proves that. #100
Thanks Jeff! I'm actually taking a deeper look at this data, specifically looking at the submission numbers over time. Some interesting results coming out of this. I'll have an update video in a few days.
@@vintagecardcurator Granted, there are places like Vintage Breaks still finding some of these in mint status but you're right, there is no way the pop reports should be jumping like they are without some nefarious activity surrounding re-submissions. I feel like PSA will try its best to put the lid on these submission numbers and it isn't really available from them as you mentioned, but they can't go back and take down everything that exists on the internet since people began talking about it. #113
The submission numbers are surprisingly easy to find it you know where to look. I worry that the sources will remove them at some point.
The 1968s could reasonably increase quickly because of the rise in demand for psa slabs, especially when 1968 is a particularly easy year to find high grade cards from, but I found this video while researching similar activities in 1971 cards, which is a whole different ballgame. Still 5 to 20 is quite an increase for that super stars card and if it was a card doctor that advertised it, that says enough for me.
Keep up the good work! One of the best card collecting channels on UA-cam!
Thanks so much Jerry! I work hard to keep the quality high and the content educational and engaging. That feedback means a lot!
Yes, awesome channel. I wish the many card podcasts would learn from it.
Keep your videos coming this is interesting stuff where enough info and they will be caught
Excellent video as usual! Thank you for the time spent researching and producing this. As the popularity (and value) of cards continues to increase it's important that we expose anyone who could damages the integrity of the hobby.
Thanks DB, I appreciate that. Your's was the first channel I started watching when I got back into the Hobby, so those words mean a lot to me. It's a sad state of affairs when it's collectors on the internet talking about these issues and the institutional voices of the Hobby are completely silent about it. I'm grateful that people are dialoguing on these videos.
Great video. Your research is very appreciated!!
Thanks Matt! I can't help it...I have a background in court investigations.
Thank you very much for the time and effort you put into the video discriptions
Thanks for the feedback! I'm glad you appreciated that.
Awesome channel! Love your work!
Thanks! I just subbed to your channel. I heard you're making card videos!
Really appreciate this! Thank you!
Thanks for the feedback!
Great research! Love your channel!
Thanks so much! That kind of feedback keeps me going. This was a very involved project to complete.
@@vintagecardcurator I can tell!
I continue to be very impressed by your work, and I admire your dedication to educating us. At this point, I'd like to hear some ideas about the "path ahead" for collectors of high end vintage. How do we pursue our dream cards, for which we know there is underlying scarcity, especially at high grades? Where can we find the assurance in our investment in such cards? Do I just discount all PSA, all Beckett, all SGC? Isn't there some baseline assurance they provide? If not, then where do I find the assurance? In the belief that these doctored cards are on the margin? As your series points out it can be difficult to detect fraud. Not all cards are "maraccas". I'd be obliged if you consider exploring ideas for the path forward. Right now, I am stumped! Thanks again. Very impressive stuff.
I wish I had those answers Chuck. I hope it will become clear once the FBI finishes their investigation. They will have the consignment records and communication. They are very thorough so we should know what extent this is really happening rather than having collectors fumble around in the dark for answers.
My best advice right now is to closely examine the photo of any card you are thinking of buying, especially slabbed. If there are noticeable gaps in the slab I would avoid those cards. Too risky. I would probably stick to mid grade cards since it's less likely they have been altered. I think high grade vintage has had a huge target on it.
Thanks for your thoughtful comment and feedback!
Pretty simple you buy SGC vintage and never buy high grade PSA vintage
Eliteco3 I personally have had more bad experiences and mistakes come from SGC then from PSA. Don’t think for one minute that SGC is perfect, they are far from it
Chuck-North Side Guy great questions. I am pursuing high grade raw cards from original collectors. Never buy from a dealer or anyone that can not tell you the history of the card. It takes longer but will be worth it in the end. Greg Morris Cards is a good one.
@@cscottriffle that is great advice. I do know Greg Morris shop and just completed my 1975 Topps ungraded in NM from him. Great high end stuff. Thanks for watching!
Another interesting video. Thanks again for sharing.
Thank you! Thanks for the comment and long-term support of the channel!
Never invest in baseball cards, these values are inflated, remember its just cardboard, collect for fun not for investment, you'll be screwed in the end if you do.
In many cases it's PSA that is making that argument the loudest and they were the ones supposed to protect us from the fraud.
Carlos I agree and disagree...the right ones gave gone up astronomically..
But it's not like a main investment
..its a side investment that's fun...ive never heard of anyone killing themselves because their Pete Rose Rc came back a PSA 5 and not a 8 lol
In the 80s baseball cards were a better investment than real estate. To say it's a stupid investment shows you dont really know what you're talking about. I once bought half the 1966 topps baseball set for 100 bucks at a fleamarket. I built the rest of the set for around 600. I sold it for 2500 and made a 1800 profit in just a few months.
Carlos; you don't understand investing. Value is determined by demand of a product. So if there is an increase of baseball card collectors, then there's a good chance the value of many cards will rise. If popularity dwindles then the value will drop. It's like gold. Why is an ounce of gold worth over $1,500 when it was worth just $300 an ounce in the year 2000? All it is a little lump of yellow metal. But many more people like gold and want it so the price has risen.
Ugghhh! It never ends! That Jackson card is such a condition sensitive card it doesn't make sense that the pop count would be rising after so many years! Great work by you(as always)!
Thanks Jim! Well, some people are saying the pops are rising due to crossovers and new cards entering the Hobby. I am skeptical of that, but maybe the FBI will look into this when they have the submission records for these certification numbers and can tell who sent them in. Unfortunately their identities are masked when they used consigners to sell them.
It's simple why the pop counts are going up ....Wax packs are being cracked every day..i was buying old packs all the time years ago...you will see the populations rise especially 60s and 70s cards
Old packs aren't as much as you think and they're almost always opened to be graded...and most will be 8s or better
@@LITMOVIESCENES One pack of 1969 Topps will cost you at least $350-$400 if you can find it. Packs from the 60s are being opened very rarely
@@PickerJimS yea but the pop reports go up hardly too....those packs are being opened though and sold daily on ebay
Keith, bingo again. I also believe that with the rapid increase in high-grade vintage cards in the last 2-4 years (absent altering cards) that people are just cracking and resubmitting their PSA 8.5s and PSA 9s over and over again, until they get the desired result. If it costs someone $25 to sub their '72 Clemente PSA 9 ($500 card) with the hope it gets a PSA 10($5,000 card), there is a great incentive to just keep subbing the card, doctored or not. I also, agree with the underlying conclusion that the pop reports are woefully inaccurate due to all this repeated subbing of the same cards and there are probably 20-30% fewer actual Reggie rookies (as and example), than are actually in the pop report. Thanks again, Keith, great stuff.
Great point George. This thought came to my mind right away. No doubt ppl are reslabbing cards all the time in hope to get the bump. In some cases a bump can literally mean several thousand dollars. Hardly anyone ever actually contacts psa and has them remove their previous grade if they cracked it. The Pop reports imo are overly inflated for sure. Also, when unopened product is found it's not uncommon to find several nice examples of the same player.
Now no doubt there is probably some funny business as well. I just think there are also reasonable explanations to some extent.
As far as the card in the holders go....Many are likely still within size tolerances as their were sone variations in size before the cutting procedures changed. Also, not all holders are the same size so you've got to he careful when just looking at how a card sits in a holder.
So if a card is still within size tolerances and is slabbed...how could one ever be able to tell the difference anyways.
Just food for thought.
Thanks George! Let me ask you this: is PSA stricter or looser with grading over time? In my opinion, from what I've seen with older grades, I feel they are tougher now. I'm curious what you think.
Keep in mind a Reggie 8 is a $1,000+ card. If you are resubmitting it to PSA with the hopes of 9 you are at a $200 or $500 service level. People spending that kind of money are pretty damn sure the card has a shot at a 9. That could be because they altered it or because it was under graded years ago. If PSA is tougher now then I don't think an older PSA 8 has a chance for a 9.
I have a PSA 9 Super Stars card. I've thought about resubmitting it, but decided not to risk losing the 9.
@@vintagecardcurator Love to talk more for sure. I agree, I think PSA is stricter now on vintage. That's my area. I can give you examples, and how I like to address that. Anyway, my friend, my email is azdiamondyard@gmail.com.
All the best, and appreciate all the time and effort you spend on this hobby.
@@SconnieTradition Scott! Thanks for your reply. I believe we think similarly, the pop report is tilted, but Keith has presented very compelling info for sure.
Regarding the "maraca" cards, I'm not convinced by that, so much as I am about PWCC selling 20-50% of the market of these low pop, high grade vintage"new finds". This is my biggest issue.
We need to connect, my friend. I'm at azdiamondyard@gmail.com
Hope to hear from you soon.
I'll be in touch George, thanks!
The amount of work it took to make this series of videos is incredible
Thanks for the comments...I appreciate that people enjoy the videos! It is a lot of work.
1 ) I personally have cracked hundreds of PSA cards from their holders . I'm a binder guy , set builder. So my cards cards will definitely influence
Population reports someday.
2 ) I think crossovers definitely contribute to rise in PSA cards
3 ) without a doubt , PSA misses counterfeit cards that slip through the graders , I've seen them . As I committed before , I knew a guy many
years ago that had a stack of 1980 Rickey Henderson cards that were fake , now there graded .
4 ) I've been working on a 53 topps and a 54 bowman set for the past few years . Any vintage set builder should compare PSA 4's to PSA 8's
nearly 100% of the 4's fit snug in the case and nearly 100% 8's seem trimmed.
5 ) lets not forget the advice of the great ones happy collecting and be kind .
Greg , i would agree 100 % with you , they also let a bunch of FAKES slip by , like the Jordans RC cards , years ago , also fake auto's as well ! Like you i build sets & what { FEW } graded cards i got maybe around { 50 } cards , also these got broken free , but I measure them , all the time , to see if they fit with a Raw cards of that given set !
Robert D. Thanks for the positive comment , I usually get vilified , for negative comments about PSA .
@@gregdobrick7788 You are welcome ..bud ! WELL, when this all comes out , lets see , who the REAL villein's ARE ! I'll go on the record & say I don't give a s@#t , what others might think ! These CROOKS are all a piece of S@#T!
Thanks for the comment Greg. I would encourage other collectors to look at their own slabs, at cards they have a long history with, and see how they fit in the slab. Make up their own mind.
The final outcome of this is like PSA getting the death penalty on Vintage Graded.
It's sad...you could hold up a raw card and a PSA slab, ask "which one is most likely to be trimmed?" and you'd really have to think about it.
Just vintage? I won't use or buy PSA at all. I am considering SGC exclusively.
Is there a chance that BGS and SGC do as well, but have not caught yet. Vintage has already unraveled how hard BGS and PSA grade hard on key cards in sets. It sucks that money rules everything.
This warrants a deeper dive, but high level, I believe it's a combination of Altered Cards, Grading Crossovers (including self PSA Resubmitting), newly "discovered" cards, and increase in Hold-out Collectors finally succumbing to having some of their collection graded.
Yes, for a card to have 10 graded for 20 years and then an increase of 10 more in say 7 years, may be eye opening as far as percentage increase in a "shorter" period, but when broken down, it's only 1 or 2 "new" cards introduced per year, which can easily be accounted for by the above ways noted, and frankly, I am surprised the increase in number is so SMALL, not larger
I'm taking that deeper dive right now, as we speak. I've been examining the submission numbers of the Reggie and the Mantle over a period of several years. There's some interesting stuff there and I should have an update video about this in a few days.
Great video as always and great insight. I just submitted 25 cards pre 1971 to PSA. I will probably get them back sometime this summer, I’m very curious to see what they get. I put a minimum grade of 1 on each, but I’m sure most of them are G/VG/EX. Somewhere in the 2-5 range. Anyway, keep up the great work, your channel is top notch !
While the conclusions are difficult to draw - the observations and the questions it raises are spot on and startling and another angle in trying to figure out what the hell has been going on!!
I know...it really makes you wonder what's going on. Some people say it's normal but I think a lot of us suspect something worse.
Great work!
Great video and information its keeps you wondering
Thanks! That was an interesting project to work on.
Fascinating stuff!
Thanks, I appreciate that!
I just recently bought a 1989 Score Barry Sanders PSA 9 on eBay. I compared it with my other Sanders PSA 9 and it’s 1/8” shorter from top to bottom. It has to be trimmed? There is no way the original factory set had that much variance when they cut them.
I have a bench and Ryan rookie. They're both graded only a four in PSA. After watching this, I m totally cool with that. Collect for fun. Not for financial gain. You'll be happier in the long run
Right before the scandal broke I bought a Ryan rookie 6 from PWCC. It made me sick, but I've looked it over a lot and it seems to be okay. I won't do that again. I've really curtailed my vintage shopping in the last few months. I may have to consider going with lower grade cards now. They are a helluva lot safer.
@@vintagecardcurator it's a shame. We should be able to trust PSA for authenticity. Good luck with your collection. I enjoy your channel. Keep up the good work ☺️
I have always suspected that the majority pre 1970's psa 9s and 10's had to be trimmed based on just how many have been popping up over the last few years. I thought that they had somehow found a way to reprint them (haha) or that they were being trimmed. Unfortunately, it seems more and more everyday like my suspicions were not unfounded.
The possibility that they're reprinting perfect copies has also been a concern of mine. Some of these cards that are 50+ years old, the white borders look unnaturally fresh and with no yellowing of the cardboard at all. That should be a major warning sign to collectors! 🚨😲🚨
I don't think they're just trimming cards. I think someone or a group (mafia style) of people in the grading company(s) is/are printing out perfect fakes, and throwing them in graded slabs. Walla! Instant cash.
This explains the weird and TOTALLY ARTIFICIAL SEEMING increase in the high graded examples in the past few years. Either that, or lots of unopened packs and boxes have been discovered somewhere, and those discoveries have been hushed?
People out there need to be *arrested* and whatever major fraud is going on, needs to be completely exposed and STOPPED ASAP, or the damage to the hobby will last for decades to come! 😵
Yes 100% agree w this. Freshly slabbed (last 3-5 years but especially last 1-2) high grade old cards aren’t just being magically found perfectly in attics. I don’t trust those for 2 seconds.
Thanks for your comment and for the follow up commenters. In my next video on this I'm going to look at other vintage cards. These are a mix of commons and HOF'ers for which it's been established the cards were trimmed and turned into 1 of 3 or 1 of 1 PSA 10's. There are dozens of them, just from one trimmer. It supports the conclusion that altered cards are feeding the pop counts.
Always enjoy your perspective and videos. While I wholeheartedly believe that there is an epidemic of card doctoring currently, there are other factors that could potentially be in play. Grading in general seems to be more and more popular. Maybe more people are slabbing cards that have lived in top loaders for decades? The ages of those who originally collected these gems are getting up there. Maybe more collections are being passed down to relatives that get them graded? I also think a lot of cards are being resubmitted to PSA from other slabs because they are more desirable. People want slabs to match. One thing is for sure, all these shenanigans are hurting the hobby. Keep up the great work!
Thanks! I'm working on trying to get some answers to those questions now. I'm looking at the number of submissions of these cards over time to see if that offers any explanation.
Great video!
Thanks! Thanks for watching!
This video reiterates what every single (honest) long time dealer has said to me about high grade vintage, where were these cards 20-40 years ago? They simply didn't exist in any real quantity. But now they do..... Keep up the great videos on this subject.
I agree with you and the dealers. I have personal experience with cards of this vintage throughout my life. There just weren't that many of them out there. Common sense should tell us that the increases aren't natural.
Not enough folks talk about the "bumper problem" as I call it (maraca slabs.) PSA made their slabs to have no space, so if they are grading and lay in the card to slab, seeing that it has room to the bumper should disqualify it.
Re: increase in Pop: How can PSA remove cards from the pop registry? Let's say someone gets a card graded but they don't like the grade. They crack open the slab and resubmit, but they get the same grade. Or maybe it was cracked and sold and someone else submits it and gets the same grade. Now you have two serial numbers for the same card, creating more Pop count. How would they deal with that?
You raise a good point. I did a video on Pop a couple months ago, talking about how it is largely meaningless. Except when the pops are very low, like under 100, which apply here. But you're right, there is no way for PSA to remove cards from the pop, except if they discover they are proven to be altered.
I will maintain that the bumper problem is an important one and maybe the single best way a collector can protect themselves going forward.
I love the work and think like you with less time to spend on research. I hope you are rewarded for the hours of work. Is there a large amount of collections that were once concealed to a dark closet that are now being sold by Senior males or their loved ones in estate? I’m so curious on who is really collecting now or is it just sellers and speculators creating a market? I have so much to learn. Ps are you going to the Houston Tri star show?
Hi Shannon, thanks for the compliment. I tend to get obsessive about these issues. Collectors have been talking about them for years and I want to find a way to prove/disprove these rumors.
I'm sure there are some collections getting unearthed and submitted. Ultimately we just don't know where these cards are coming from. To me, it seems unnatural when you consider these cards have been valuable for a long, long time and the rates of 10's are increasing at a time when the age of the card is also increasing. It's like steroids. On top of that, you have what we know is a huge scandal with trimmed cards. You can't divorce that from the discussion. That's why I'm very suspicious of where these cards have come from.
Awesome PSA expose 👍
Thank you. Wait until you see the next one!
Any comments (or upcoming video) on how the trimming may affect SGC and BGS holders? My recollection is BGS has a more open set, which wouldn't allow for easy notice by eyes alone, whereas SGC has their more specific inlay that would probably show the same as PSA?
Whole thing makes me sick...
I'm sorry, I profess ignorance on SGC or BGS. I have been strictly a PSA guy since I started back collecting 2 years ago. I was drawn to PSA's higher resale value and the analytics they provided. I need to research SGC in particular to see what they offer. If they have some effective counter-measures to altered cards I would give them a strong look.
If bo diddley was still alive hed have a pretty girl shaking psa cases on stage
A lot of people are buying cards graded by other companies and cracking the case and getting them graded by PSA to make a buck. I wonder if that accounts for some of the increase in pop for some of these cards?
I agree these TINY numbers of PSA 9 could easily be crossovers or resubmits. If you have a really nice 8 or 8.5... some people will resubmit dozens of times until they get the 9.
PSA pop counts are meaningless for the most part.
This video, although well done... added nothing new to the conversation
Here's my thinking about why I don't believe these are reslabs. I've noticed that over time PSA has gotten stricter with their grading. I've seen slabs from a few years ago that I don't believe would get that same grade today. Now if you have an older PSA 8 Reggie Jackson...that is a $1,000+ card. If you resubmit to PSA you are at a $200 to $500 service level to submit that card for grading. If you have an older slab, it's unlikely your 8 will be a 9 today. My opinion. The only way you're getting a 9 is if you know damn well you'll get a 9.
You say PSA has become “ stricter” with their grading... yet you suggest these cards are altered and got by PSA.
Those two thoughts contradict with other.
Don’t get me wrong... I believe PSA is either incompetent or implicit in this card doctoring problem. You pick which... perhaps both!
I'm taking a deeper look at the submission records and the percentage of cards that PSA has graded a 9. It's not linear. Prior to 2010 it seemed like PSA was giving these cards 9's about 1% of the time. Then, sometime after 2013, until about mid 2018 PSA started getting really strict on these cards, particularly the Jackson. They were giving out 9's approximately once every 550 submissions. But then, around the middle of 2018 and into 2019 (the time period of some of the big increases in pop in the video), PSA started getting a lot more lenient with grading these cards. For example, with the Mantle, PSA was granting 9's 2% of the time, which is a lot more lenient than they were in 2010.
So I think both can be true that PSA can be stricter at some times and more lenient at others. The older slabs were graded more leniently, but we're also seeing a period now where more cards are passing with 9's too. I'm working on analyzing the data now and should have more results in a future video.
how do these pop increases pair with PSA overall grading numbers. I.e. was there a tipping point where more subs were happening or did the specific card increases drastically outpace submission/collectibles certified changes.
I'm not sure I understand exactly what you are asking...do you mean is the higher pop due to the higher submission rates? If so, I do address that in the video...I was able to control for the number of submissions and came up with what we should expect the increase in the pop to be. But the data showed the pop still increased anyway. If that's not it, please let me know.
Vintage Card Curator must’ve missed that, I’ll rewatch
Heroic work
Thank you my friend!
I have a PSA 9 $20 bill and a PSA 3 $20 bill and they're both worth $20.
I'm new new to collecting and trying to learn about condition and grade of a card. Question is do PSA and other grading companies use any kind checklist as they grade a card?
Beckett uses a 4 point checklist that is published on the label of the card, showing the qualities they use to assess condition. PSA and SGC don't offer any type of insight into their internal grading practices. They might say in general what qualities they are looking for, but the final grade seems largely left to the discretion of the human grading it. There's no explanation offered to the owner.
yes if it is submitted by PWCC it is graded higher than if you submitted it. Check
I wonder from what years should there be no gap between the card's edge and the psa holder. This type of information would be useful in outing more trimmed cards.
Thanks for the comment. The idea of using gaps between the card and the slab to identify trimming has a caveat: cards that left the Topps factory in vending boxes were probably cut short and would legitimately have that gap. For example, I have a 1968 card I've owned since 1980 that has a gap in the slab. I bought it from a dealer and I strongly believe this dealer used vending boxes for their supply of cards.
Where it's tricky is that the card trimmers know this and they are aware of the size tolerance PSA has, based on these standards for vending box cards. (Some card trimmers used to be PSA graders themselves.) The trimmers cut the cards down to the tolerance of a vending card, knowing that PSA will certify that card. (Why PSA cannot detect a trim made by Topps in the 1960's versus a trim made by someone in 2021 is beyond me.)
For me personally, I stay away from graded cards that have gaps in the slab. They may be legit, but if PSA can't tell the difference, I don't want to touch it.
@@vintagecardcurator Thank you for that very useful information
loved the video. I collect TCG cards and know nothing about baseball cards but information like this is extremely useful. I am doing my best to become a better data analyst and this video has validated some assumptions of mine. Until I hear from someone more experienced I never really know if i'm looking in the right places for valuable market data. I'm going to spend the day binge watching the rest of your content. Hopefully I can get my wife to watch as well. She just bought some suspiciously cheap older cards and is certain of their authenticity because they came from a very large online card outlet. I will be a happy man if I can get her to understand what kind of shady business goes on and how diluted the market has become in recent years due to all the scams and fakes out there.
Thanks Thomas, I appreciate you watching! There's a lot to take in and learn...I certainly had to give myself a crash course in the last couple of years. Considering the lack of transparency about so many things in the Hobby, there is data out there to answer these questions. I've had to get pretty creative when my desire for answers burns too strong. I hope you find some useful tools out there for your own analysis.
I think this is an interesting and in depth look into card population. One thing I wish you mentioned is inflated populations due to people cracking out cards and resubmitting them in attempt to attain a higher grade. As someone who collects coins as well I know that this process is common in coin collecting and wonder if it could be inflating the grading population of cards as well.
Thanks Josef...I don't know if there is a way to quantify the extent of cards that are cracked out and resubmitted. It would be important to test this theory...I just don't know how you would do it.
Very nice. I’m just not sure about PSA anymore
Great video. I'd guess the increase in 9's among many of these old cards is for a combo of reasons. Some are altered cards by Moser and others and some are simply cards in personal collections that have been in holders for years and preserved and finally sent in. I bought my first card in 1969 and have collected ever since; with that typical layoff of 15 or 20 years that many of us had. And yet I've never sent in a card for grading even though I have at least 300 that I think are worth grading, with some that should get 8 or maybe even 9. I think one of the Mantles was trimmed at the top and I thought one of the Jackson's was trimmed on the right side
I do think it makes sense that it's a combination of factors, not one. I am finishing up some analysis on the submissions counts of these cards over time and it's quite interesting. PSA really seemed to loosen up the standards as more cards came in. I guess we won't know the real reason until the FBI looks at the consignment and submission records of these new 9's.
Thanks for the comment!
@@vintagecardcurator I think the general attitude of Joe Orlando might have led to some of the grading issues at PSA. It's possible Joe Orlando emphasized speed of grading more than accuracy as a way of keeping customers happy by not taking forever to grade and send back their cards. And this also would have allowed Orlando to not hire more graders to keep payroll down. I say this because of the many comments Orlando has made where he seems to say it's okay to make grading mistakes
Without knowing the data of the number of submissions, it really is an incomplete analysis….for example, was their a five fold increase in card submissions? I’m sure you’ve looked into this and maybe I missed that part but obviously that can be a huge factor. I just found your channel here and am really enjoying the research and care you put into your presentations. Keep up the great work.
Some of the data for number of submissions was available. That's how I was able to track whether PSA was getting more tough or loose over time with their grades.
Great video best yet! Mud in the water on this one. Hobby has taken off in the last 2-3 years. PSA and other grading companies volume is way up. With more people subbing more opportunities for pops to move. With all the registries people are cracking and crossing more. Add in the corruption on triming and altering, hard to tell.
Thanks for the comment. I wish we had a definite answer. People in the comments hold both opinions.
that's the beauty of the fraud
Absolutely you can't tell me these grading companies can't see a trimmed altered card unless your not really looking at it.
Great video. A lot to think about. Just a thought wouldn't you have to look at submission percentage over all to for the times selected to get a better idea of why there is more in that time. I know this past year PSA has done more grading than anyone one year in the past across the board, so if grading is more popular then people with all cards are sending them in to be graded. I know I have a large collection and just started getting items graded. I can't be the only one. I agree there is some dishonesty, even illegal practices going on but just some food for thought.
That's a good theory. I wish I could test it. If PSA released some numbers over time we could certainly test it. I would be really interested to see what percentage of Jackson's submitted are getting 9's vs 6's and looking at the percentage of total cards being submitted over time.
For example, if, of all the Reggie submissions PSA gets in a year, only 3% are 9's in 2014, then we would expect that number to remain somewhat consistent. So if in 2016 we saw that 7% of all Reggie submissions came back a 9, that would be pretty suspect.
You brought up a good testing method...I just wish there was a way to test it.
I pulled a pristine 93’ so Jeter out of a pack. I had it graded bye BGS and received it back as trimmed. How is this possible?
good question
The way you go after psa makes me wish we could turn you loose on our crooked politicians!!! Great work as always!!!
Wow, thanks for that. Our hobby should have integrity; it depends on it.
Interesting stuff
Thank you sir!
Although I don't deny there is some funny business going on with PWCC and PSA. But, I would say that more cards are coming to market as the older generation sell off their collections or pass their collections down to family that is not interested in cards. Any auction house or auction company will take these cards and more than likely submit them for grading. That's more money in the sellers pocket and more money in the auctioneers pocket. The card market has been on a boom these last 18 months or so. High demand for high graded cards is no secret to anyone anymore. So I think that is why the numbers are starting to jump up a bit. I think those population numbers will grow quite a bit more over the next 10 to 20 years. I bet there are many old timer collectors still sitting on their collections that want nothing to do with slabbing a card. We shall see. The big question here is. Why isn't PSA catching these things?
I'm working on an update to this project, taking a closer look at how many submissions were received by PSA for each card at different points in time. I think this will be helpful in understanding whether the pops are increasing because of more submissions or because of a factor at PSA. I should have the video done within a few days.
Look forward too seeing that.
Does thewaybackmachine work for grading pop?
Good question...I haven't used it before. I feel like using past auction archives was a decent way to reconstruct it.
I think psa might need to regrade all cards and put in holders showing that to confirm they are legit as they claim.
Hey buddy great video as always. Heading towards Florida my friend. Great information and I am so happy someone else is trying to clean up the hobby, besides myself. God Bless my friend and give them Hell buddy.
Thanks Shaun! Appreciate the feedback my friend!
@@vintagecardcurator Your man! Fighting Crime against the 100 Billion dollar Corporations! I started investigations into these jerks in 1997 when Gretzky purchased that trimmed t206 Wagner. Good news the Jabs pulled all the Joes Uribe and Alex Madrid hoax videos off thier Channel. Only took me a year and half of busting thier ball's. I also have thier reassurance that they are going to help clean up the Hobby. I appreciate how diligent you are on these criminals! You are a good man my friend.
wow, thanks Shaun! I didn't realize Jabs pulled those videos down. That's good news for the Hobby man.
Great video and interesting; however, I think there has also been much more RECENT interest in professional grading as Sellers can obtain more money for these types when sold and have a potentially more secure way to store. There is no question that the gaps you point out are reason to wonder. That looks very suspicious to me too. But I think much of this rise in pop #s is indeed organic because many collectors are only now starting to submit for pro grades. Part of that is the cost to submit, the concern for loss, or whatever else. I have only submitted 2 cards and it was done with the assistance of a friend. So with the growing popularity of graded cards, particularly PSA, why are these jumps hard to believe? I think you may be onto something, but it's not as prevalent at you seem to suspect. JMO...Thanks again for the great video!
Thanks for the analysis Mark. Ultimately there is no way to know for sure what the cause of this is. To your point, I see almost every day on Facebook groups how dad's old collection has been passed down and people hear that sports cards are now worth something. On the other hand, we are living in an environment where we know there has been a massive volume of vintage cards being altered into higher grade examples. That's where I lean because growing up in that era I know very few of our cards ever survived childhood in mint condition (or were perfectly centered to begin with).
High Grade vintage PSA will be worthless by the time this shakes out.
It's so damn risky. Those collectors have a bullseye on their wallets.
Worthless lol
If you sent your own collection in your fine. If you jumped on the bandwagon and paid ridiculous amounts w/o even looking at the actual card b/c it had a particular # then u may be in trouble. The quality will be separated from the crap.
I went to my local card store recently and he said he had an auction where all the raw cards he had sold but the PSA graded cards did not. Hmmm I wonder why....
I wonder. I've seen prices going both directions. I want to wait a little more time before I really look and see if things are dropping or not. I can't imagine spending a lot of money on high grade slabs right now though.
I also wonder if more people my age,57, are getting back into collecting and going back through their cards and finding some "gems" from the vintage era? I know I found some in my old collection when I started back earlier this year. Just a thought.
ToppsVintage 110762 yes that applies to me perfectly.
Because grading prices are extremely high. Most older collectors would rather own a card than purchase a graded one. And then theres all the fraud with grading companies including PSA and beckett. Beckett pretty much owns the hobby now.
@@th-cc6ei Agree!
Man is this eye opening. The Brett increase is staggering. Wow.
It is a lot for a 45 year old card. I know that card has a large pop to begin with.
Bought a 1968 topps Fergie Jenkins in a psa 9 oc on ebay. This was 16 years ago. Did not notice the picture on ebay as I bought it, but when I received it I was shocked. It was so obvious the card was trimmed. It had about 3/32 on an inch of space at the top of the holder. My point is how did they miss that. Like I said, many years ago this was going on.
It's been going on for a long time Joe. The first graded cards I ever bought were like that too and I immediately wondered if they were trimmed or not. It's unnerving to have one of those shakers in your collection. I'm starting to think PSA just grades them wholesale without really checking.
What do I think you ask?
I think PWCC is incredibly lucky to find such mint cards that don't fit inside PSA slabs... how lucky! Its amazing I tell ya....I think PSA should probably make slabs to fit PWCC near perfect cards so there is no question about their shady-ness!!
Im only kidding!! I hope a federal investigation shuts all these dirtbags down for good!!
In the 80's I worked card shows with my father when the hobby peaked...ALWAYS,I mean ALWAYS you would find that dirtbag looking creep scamming others at each show...Today I see nothing has changed, those same dirtbags pictured in this investigation are exactly the same looking dirtbags from my childhood I would avoid at the card shows...
Yet again this was a great video and hopefully something will be done soon to put an end to this nonsense before the hobby is completely ruined!! Thank you for raising awareness!!
Thanks for your comment! Can you think of any other hobby where there are so many people (even major, institutional players that are out to scam the majority of other people in the hobby?
@@vintagecardcurator NO I CAN NOT! I'm not well versed in COMICS,VINTAGE TOYS,STAMPS...but I'm sure these hobbies do not compare!!
Great job keep it up
Thank you my friend!
If you print them last year with modern equipment using old rice paper recipes used back in the 1960s, then you can print perfect 9 and 10 cards. This does not violate copyright since Topps still owns the copyrights.
Which company would you recommend to fairly grade the card based on condition and not the player? BGS or SGC?
I can't even say...if you are looking for resale value (either you or your heirs) you have no choice but to use PSA.
I actually have an ongoing grading predicament that I’d like your opinion on. What would be the best way to relate the information?
Yes, you can email me at: vintagecardcurator@gmail.com
@@vintagecardcurator email sent. thank you for your time.
Excellent clip VCC, as always. Keep exposing this.
Thanks! I'm already working on the next one. This one should shed more light on how the pops on some cards are rising.
1.) You'd be surprised at the number of old collectors that are sitting on 50 year old ungraded cards that have decided to sell them off into the market. 2.) PSA is very inconsistent with grading. A lot of people get 8 grades and re-submit them and get 9's.
a possibility is that PWCC might have a way to open the slabs and put lesser altered cards in, taking the original slabbed 9 out and resubmitting that card to get another 9 grade. i don't see how these trimmed cards are getting past PSA graders unless those graders are committing fraud. a trimmed card will have a noticeable difference visually.
I don't believe cards are being cracked out and switched. The altered cards I've seen on Blowout show definitive evidence of trimming or alteration. I think it would be easier to tell if the case was cracked and a lot riskier if they were caught doing that.
Good stuff
Thanks for binging my stuff Big Jax!
Question is... how many of these cards where already slabbed and removed from said slabs and altered and regraded?
Knowing what we know from the Blowout guys my guess is most or all of them were altered from lower grades. Some may have just been given a generous bump. You make a really valid point...these are probably not cards new to the Hobby.
My father passed on his 1960 collection to me about 5 years ago when I got back into collecting. This complete set is all ungraded and includes the mantle, yaz, etc... and I dont plan on getting any of these graded any time soon. So I would say there are collections out there that may include some 9-10 grades (not mine) that are entering the market. But at what rate... I don't know.
Yes, it's definitely possible and clearly the pops of these cards only go up over time, never down. It's the rate of increase that raises my suspicions...to go from an increase of 2% per year for 3 years or 7 years or whatever and then go up 15% in one year seems hard to imagine.
@@vintagecardcurator I agree. Your research has shown some great proof of very possible fraud. If you ever get a chance to cover fraudulent cards coming from Asia (China etc..) I'm sure people would love to know more about that subject, I know I would! Thanks again for all your hard work.
I know your a Baseball guy, but can you do a video like this for basketball cards? Jordan mainly?
Hi, thanks for the comment...I just don't know anything about basketball cards, nor have any interest sorry to say. The interest helps motivate me through these big projects. Anyone could do a project like this though.
1) Identify the key cards you want to track; 2) go to PSACards Auction Prices Realized page, find those cards and bring up the sales history for the grades you are looking for. 3) Go back as far as you can and click on the links for the auction sales of each card. That will bring you to a description from the auction house. 4) The description of the auction will often note the Pop of the card at that time. 5) Go forward in history, reviewing other auction sales. 6) You can also search old forum posts, especially with Collectors Universe. Sometimes collectors will mention the specific pop of the card in dated forum posts.
Give it a shot; it's not hard and can be very illustrative of what's happening in the Hobby.
100%agree. Who was the person that called out psa for keeping their high end card in psa 10s a lot less than normal and it was the same for like a 20 year stretch, it might have been you. Great job if it was. I think these are being trimmed and some select people are getting them graded. Very sad but not surprised by this
Hoping PSA and PWCC are going to be topics of conversation.
catdvds Yes, unfortunately. I don’t go over the old stuff much since I’ve covered hat before. But PWCC and PSA are neck deep in this one.
@@vintagecardcurator You have people belly aching. ... PSA should be nervous. ... I personally think they're both complicit and incompetent.
Oh boy, and I was planning on possibly buying a Reggie Jackson RC next year? 😰😨
Might rethink that and hold off for a bit!
Buy from a private collector...
Just don't buy anything over a psa 7 and you should be fine.
@@CollectorsFix That's probably a good idea, to stay safe!
Another thought is since Fox has never divulged how much they have printed on cards maybe there's some boxes out there that have never been opened or released it's happened
Thanks!
I overpaid for a very high grade 1956 Mickey sold by PWCC just before the breakup with eBay. Cert starts with a 04, so guessing it's not newly graded and less likely to be trimmed. Selling it will fall on my kid's decission someday though.
That’s a tough position to be in Matt. The zero cert cards are generally considered to be over graded by today’s standards. The ‘56 cards seemed to be less likely to be trimmed because the size tolerances were not as great as the later years (cards that were used in vending machines). But some recent research is leading me to believe that trimming was widespread in those days. I guess you have to really look at the card to see if there are noticeable gaps in the slab.
Thanks for the donation!
This video makes me happy that I only buy low/mid grade vintage! Appreciate the time you take to research all this!
Smart man, my thought exactly
Thanks again for the support! I think you are giving some great advice. Safer to buy low and mid grade right now.
That’s super to hear because I have thousands of vintage that fit that description and I’m slowly grading. I hope they’re a lot of people who think like that.
My thought about the pop increase is that more and more people are grading cards these days. Psa has been so backed up for the last few years. Their 10 day submission changed to a 20 day and now 25 days to receive their cards back. My guess is that people who are getting back in to the hobby cuz of all these high prices for high grade vintage cards are submitting cards that they may have had sitting around. When i first got back in the hobby about 5 years ago and started to submit to psa, 10 day submission would take 10 days. Even fewer than that. Now it takes almost 3 months to get a 25 day submission back.
It's certainly possible. I submitted a card I had for 30+ years and got a 9. But I've had many other come back well below that too.
@@vintagecardcurator very true, no matter what its still quite difficult to get a high grade on vintage. I always enjoy ur content cuz u do raise some interesting points. I actually went to look at all my psa cards and shook them to see if they rattled. Most did not, or if they did it was very minimal. Even with this scandal goin on, im not noticing really any difference in the hobby as far as graded cards are concerned. I feel as if not too many people are even aware of the slabgate. So most people are still buying psa and bgs slabs as if nothing happened. But it still remains to be seen what comes of it all if psa is still under investigation. Thanks again for all your content.
Thanks for the comment. I have noticed the same thing. I was chatting with someone the other day and we were talking about how all the "official" news outlets about the baseball card hobby are completely ignoring this, hoping it goes away. It seems like the only serious work being done about this is coming from some guys on the internet. That should tell you a lot about how the Hobby establishment feels about this scandal.
Best way to tell if its trimmed, just hold an ungraded card from the same set up to the slabbed card, if the slab card is smaller then just return it, you have 14-30 days with PWCC and Probstein to return it
That's great advice Cory. I know from my own vintage cards I've had slabbed that very few have any gaps in the holders. Now I know to look at any auction pictures to look for that tell-tale gap.
@@vintagecardcurator I agree looking at gaps is the easiest way to determine online, however PSA slabs have slightly changed over the years. I know the slabs with the gray PSA logo tend to have more "empty" space within the slab. Yet some cards tend to be slightly bigger, 1955 topps for example, which make it easier to determine from pictures
Grading killed the hobby for me along with all the chase cards. I really miss the 36 pack box with 15 cards in a pack. I once pulled 7 Clemens rookies, 5 pucketts and 5 McGwire rookies out of one 85 topps box. Now you get a handful of cards per pack and 12 packs and the boxes are over 100 easily. It's about money and not the fun anymore.
I don't mess with modern cards at all Dan. It is the opposite of how I was brought into the Hobby and how I prefer to enjoy it. No offense to people that collect modern, a lot do. It's just not my thing, partially for those reasons you mention.
Grading was not a thing when I was collecting. I have raw Staubachs, Payton’s, Montana’s etc that are either straight from packs or bought from shops that I’m sure many my age have ungraded. Now that collectors are getting older, many sell their collections raw to those that are looking to sell, who in turn get the cards graded, increasing the pop counts. As prices go up, more people will submit and sell to cash in. As for the smaller cards, that’s open to interpretation.
Psa cases are defective. Many of my cards fall past the “bumper” and rattle. Measure perfect. Definitely not 1/16 or 1/8 of an inch like your video shows.
Yeah, I've measured cards of mine that are the exact same size yet have different gaps in the cases.
And a heat gun gets them to easily open and not to hard to get them closed.
Since tops has never let anybody know what they printed there has been cases of people having cases that they've never opened I know the manager at store where I used to find when I was a kid instead of returning them he would keep them
Im not surprised. Crooks are always looking for an easy buck till the river runs dry
There's a big incentive to alter if the cards are selling for 4-5 figures.
@@vintagecardcurator ive have a few counterfeits things ive purchased. And baseball cards are no different. The 85 or 86 topps cards id touch up for trading, black tops where the first thing scrutinized. I was a kid then so adults im sure are finding clever ways to cheat the system. And grading companies or trying to stay afloat in a market that's kind of been flat for a long time. Its bad for the hobby period, buyers have to do there diligence and you help educate. 😊👍
You would think that the idea of what PSA brought to the hobby (and how higher grades=higher $) by the late '80s would have had collectors scrambling to find their cards to encapsulate immediately. Funny how all these higher end examples of popular stars have been kept so clean for decades.
Did you do any research as to the % increase of such cards through other TPGs? I recall SGC being much more strict when it came to grading vintage.
I didn't look at SGC. I have focused on PSA because all my slabs are PSA. I am so ignorant about SGC I don't even know if they publish pop counts or any analytics. It would be interesting for other collectors to look at this too.
The Vintage Composer the card collecting market has grown vastly in the past few years and it’s no surprise that new ungraded cards are being found and graded when the media attention is there to wake people up to start searching thru their old collections. A few years ago a guy brought a 52 Topps Mantle to the National and got it graded 8.5 and sold it for a million bucks. He had that card since the 80s from the Mr Mint find. Not everyone was scrambling to get their cards graded when PSA opened, new people are entering or re-entering the hobby everyday.
@@ericb4498 I’m sure there are lots of young / new enthusiasts who have realized the advantage of using TPGs to build their collection and have done so with vintage cards. Those of us who are passionate about the hobby welcome this and hope they succeed.
My point is there weren’t as many cards produced from the 1930s through the 60s as there is today. It’s been 35 years or so since PSA started business, so it seems unusual that so many high grade examples of key cards have entered the market in such a recent short stretch. Unless these are cards were already in holders and cracked to be re-graded. That’s one part of the business in which we can’t keep track of.
The Vintage Composer I’m sure cracked holders and resubmissions are part of it but finding a mint 75 Brett rookie or even a mint 69 Jackson rookie ungraded is not as rare as some people think it is. If you were to find a new mint card from the early 50s by comparison would be very rare, 50s cards are much rarer than 60s cards. And finding mint ungraded prewar cards is almost unheard of today, if it happens it becomes the circus of media attention like the black swamp find. I expect more mint Brett & Jackson rookies will continue to surface in the future bc there are still some in attics, by comparison I expect slim to none mint copies of Koufax or Clemente rookies to surface in the future. I have personally seen two different very blatant mistakes that PSA has made on vintage cards that are not very valuable cards (mistakes that 100% shouldn’t have been made but not necessarily fraud) and I’ve seen many thousands of slabs. I’ve seen more mistakes from SGC and far more from BVG. If a card is very valuable than I expect PSA to take more time grading it and be more careful not to make a mistake bc they are somewhat liable for their mistakes. So I expect it is much more likely they make a mistake rushing thru a big order of low value cards, than a very valuable card. I expect that the vast majority of mint PSA cards valued at $1000 or more are in fact unaltered, with a very rare alteration being the exception not the norm. I also expect that the vast majority of cards altered in slabgate are mid grades, not all mint cards like people think. PWCC contacted me about returning a vintage PSA 4 for concerns of the card being altered. I have faith that law enforcement will resolve this issue and remove the altered cards as there are records of every transaction. If there are any bad apples at PSA then they should clean house and be dealt with. I don’t believe PSA is a fraudulent company that takes kickbacks but I believe a fraudulent employee might have slipped thru. I am really grateful we have such great people in this hobby to dig thru the dirt and get the scammers but this is a very small portion of cards that were altered. This is getting blown out of proportion
Psa needs to invest in a scanner that can measure these cards; there's a threshold that trimmed cards obviously won't fit in
We've learned now that PSA got sold and I believe this new group will embrace technology in future grading. That would be good news for collectors. I suppose trimmed cards could still get through the system the same way...the card doctors are aware of PSA's size tolerances and cut the cards down to that. A computer might not make a difference...but at least every card would be measured, something PSA doesn't do now.
Great video, lots lots lots of information to absorb in this one. However the one question that no one is really asking is why are the cards making it trough. People can blame PWCC all that they want but anyone can submit any card that they want. If I draw a mustache on a player I can submit it to be graded; if said card comes back slabbed and I submitted it to a consignor and they sold it at auction than who is really at fault? Me for drawing/tampering with the card; the consignor who's job is just to sell items that are deemed authentic by a TPG; or the TPG that authenticated the card?
Now I am not saying that PSA or any TPG can or will be perfect but lets look at this thing as a whole. We are actually talking about less that 0.07% of cards that PSA grades in a physical quarter year; much less these cards have slab numbers that expand over several years. So in reality over a 3 yr period based on the number of cards that are graded (not submitted) they have appx 0.00583333333% error/mistake rate. That is phenomenal. Having said that I do feel sorry for those that purchased these bad cards under false pretenses but that leads you back to the original question: Who is really at fault?
Snoop12922 very well said when you put things in perspective
Thanks for the comment and analysis Snoop...I'm not following you about the .07% and error rate. How do you arrive at those figures?
On average PSA grades appx 600k-650k cards per physical quarter year (that is the number Joe Orlando gave at the shareholder's report) and we are talking about roughly 400 cards that are questionable. So 400 cards to a company that grades over 2.6 million cards per year (650,000 ×4) Its actually pretty remarkable there aren't more errors.
I appreciate what you are saying, however we don't know the exact number of altered cards. 400 is probably just what has been outed and confirmed by the Blowout group. Each outed card went through a pretty exhaustive search to confirm the before and after pictures. The Blowout guys have said that there are many, many more cards that they just don't have enough evidence to conclusively show alteration (low resolution scans, no pictures of the back, cards purchased raw or off-line). I don't think we'll know how many altered cards are out there until the FBI gets the submission lists for all the card doctors.
Snoop..how does PSA not catch a serial #d card that they had already graded previously?
I just don't get how this many altered cards are getting through grading processes. Makes you wonder if they can't catch altercations, if they can catch counterfeits?
It's really curious to me. Clearly some cards are getting measured because I see UA-cam videos of people getting their cards rejected for minimum size or lower grades than they expect. Yet some cards with obvious issues are repeatedly getting through the system.
Although cards being trimmed could be true, I see it that most of the original card owners were collectors and not investors. However, since the prices in graded cards have gone up and the owners have gotten older, their worry about dying or the can't resist factor because of the prices have resulting in the rise. I do agree that some tampering has occurred, particularity within the small time frame of the few companies that have been caught recently. I hope there is more scrutiny in the future to prevent and prosecute the perpetrators.
Thanks for your comment. I don't think we'll ever know for sure. No doubt there's some resubmits and people submitting cards that they've held for years. The sudden increase still seems unnatural to me, especially compared to the numbers over time.
Another reason why I'm reluctant to invest "big bucks" in Baseball cards. Mantle cards are very coveted among collectors, as are other Yankees like you stated (in your other videos). The economic law of Supply and Demand. With more Mantle high grade cards on the market . the price is sure to drop. They were probably over priced to begin with, also related to Supply and Demand. Let's see if the Baseball card market can regulate and correct itself resulting in more fair and stable prices or greed will cause the bubble to burst.
I don't know where things are going now...we are seeing historic prices for Jordan, really quickly. It feels like Mantle cards are getting eclipsed lately by Mays and Aaron. I think it will take some time to see how prices sort themelves out.