Will the Wagner Rebellion Succeed?
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- Опубліковано 5 вер 2024
- *EDIT* Well that was a remarkably weird 24 hours. My only explanation is that Prigozhin was truly under the belief that he could do this with Putin's support. Once Putin denounced him, Prigozhin was probably then looking for a way out... But it's a complete speculation.
Recent hours has just experienced some of the most extraordinary events in modern history, as the Wagner Group led by Yevgeny Prigozhin has rebelled against the Kremlin and undertaken a full-scale invasion into Russia, capturing Rostov and moving on Voronezh towards Moscow.
Putin has labelled this treason, pledging to wipe out the rebels. The stage is set for Civil War. Who will be victorious? And what does this mean for Ukraine? Crispin interrupts his work away to give a break down on Baltic World.
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Great overview. Let's continue to follow and hope for the best. Obviously the best for Ukraine 😉
Civil War 😅 I do agree with your points
In the next 10-50 years, Russia might split into a bunch of smaller states...
Do not forget - Prigozhin welcomes annexing "new territories". Furthermore, Prigozhin might use mass destruction weapons.
I think this is good. Mordor can't have normal leader but at least Prigozhin is less hypocritical and not such a big layer as Putin. Plus he seem less obsessed about Ruzzian chauvinistic imperial ideas.
As a Lithuanian (from Klaipeda), originally half Samogitian - half Tatar/with other half of famili living in Russian far east (Khabarovsk)... I hope they will succeed .... But then again, I used to have hobby for geopolitics... And my worst fear was if Russia collapse (cuz of nuclear arsenal)... Now, since I see Putin got old and got dementia/ illusions of grandure ( just look Ukraine)... I am afraid, he can hit the red button... No matter what will happen to his daughters after that
Prigozhin is not a good putin alternative, possibly much worse. best case scenario is they take putin out but also fail themselves. but the former wont happen. should that become a possibility he will just flee and then this might actually become a full scale civil war. which it isnt right now, saying that is just sensationalism. but i personally think the whole thing will fizzle out when they reach moscow and realize they have no support from the public nor in the army.
Hmm Putler Kaput, but another serial killer in on radar ...
He wouldn't have made this play if he didn't think it had steam. He's been feuding with gerismov and shoigu for months. He'll go as far as he can. Now let's see how the battle hardened wagner group does against non battle hardened national guardsmen. But man, a direct conflict between Putin and Prigozhin. Just, wow. Reports are they are closing in on Moscow. And Putin has DIRECTLY called for shutting this 'rebellion down.' Prigozhin, I think, is using the 'i've lost so many friends in this shit war' mood to his advantage. Course he comes off as a cheap salesmen to us, but to hardcore stressed out soldiers, many will buy into his message of elites and their corrupt leadership are the source of your suffering.
It is true that Russia after revolution usually becomes stronger however the reason why Soviets were so sucessful in occupying half of the Europe is because of the 2 World wars that devastated Europe and left if barely capable of defending itself at best. Also after the IWW some of the countries became very antagonistic to each other which allowed Soviets to occupy all countries in the east/central Europe one by one. On the other hand, nowadays many of those eastern/central European in countries in question are part of the NATO and have normal to excellent relationship between each other and understands the threat of the Russia very well and are willing to cooperate with each other for mutual security benefits. On top of that War in Ukraine awakened Europe and allowed it to realise that it can no longer rely on old geopolitical and security paradigms and because ot that many European counties are forced to reevaluate their security policies in a way that it would fit with current realities of geopolitics. On top of that if the civil unreast in Russia would grow to full scale civil war it could be heplful in a way that it could motivate regular Russian civilians who have nothing to gain from this conflict but everything to lose to flee from the country perhaps even permenantely. If Such process would happen on the mass scale than in it also would decrease demographical( which is already is quite bad in 2021 it was 1.505 births per woman) capacity and potential of Russia to wage wars against other counties in the future. That is especially importan having in mind Russia's proclivity to fight other countires by overwhelming them in size of the army.
I have a feeling that this whole affair is somehow staged, at least partly. It is something important but we must note that this military group is relatively small, so it may be acting with the cover of some power structures within Russia and... i don't think Putin was caught by surprise. One important Ukrainian military analyst assumed the whole affair may be orchestrated in order to divert attention from something else that might be of greater imortance. The bigger picture will probably emerge in the coming days or weeks. Think about it, how smoothly it is happening, though the group could be destroyed rather easily using aviation e.g. when approaching Moscow or some other Russian city. The group claimed it was first attacked by Russian helicopters but in the video it presented afterwards there was no trace of a serious bombing, just some broken trees in the forest and some fire shown from a distance. (The analyst i mentioned said it so far resembled of an informational-psychological operation that Russian services know how to arrange. He also calculated that the number of soldiers in the group must be not 25 000 as was claimed but rather 2 500).
There are many reports of active fighting. Even within the first 20 hours. It's real. Wanger convoy has been attacked on the highway. Yeah, it's real.
@@jondoe6926 Maybe but let's wait and see. It is not the first time when Russians "attack" other Russians. ua-cam.com/video/XtyFQw4AOVo/v-deo.html
this channel has made pro putin videos
lol, that's a new one.