Are Stocks Rolling Over In A Risk-Off Manner?

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  • Опубліковано 6 вер 2024
  • Volatility has picked up considerably in recent weeks. Is the AI-hyped market morphing into a correction or is a 2000 or 2007-like recessionary bear market on the way?

КОМЕНТАРІ • 159

  • @henrymitchell9717
    @henrymitchell9717 Місяць тому +238

    I am 33 thinking right now to start investing long term but everyone says market will crash after rate cut so I am thinking to wait and put all my money in a money market account yielding 5% a year. At least it is something and I am sure it won't go anywhere. What are your thoughts should I start now or wait for a potential market crash?

    • @JustMemesNStocks
      @JustMemesNStocks Місяць тому +1

      Hi Henry. I think you should at least start the process of dollar cost averaging into low cost ETFs. The right time is always 'now'. Perhaps put the money in the money market to begin. Then each week, take a set amount and sprinkle it in.

    • @23rd08
      @23rd08 Місяць тому +2

      It is impossible to time the market, dip could come tomorrow or it could come in 2 years. You would miss out on a lot of gains in the meantime, so why not hold recession resistant stocks? My portfolio is up $513k this year alone... while I was down about 33k last week I wasn't sweating it at all, I've found that having an experienced CFA is invaluable in navigating through the market and implementing the right strategies to keep risk mitigated.

    • @larrydimon7811
      @larrydimon7811 Місяць тому +3

      Sector rotation. It sucks if you are overweight tech but it is healthy for the market overall. I suspect the rotation will end soon but hard to know for sure. Anyways congrats on the outstanding performance! @23rd08

    • @23rd08
      @23rd08 Місяць тому +5

      Agreed either it ends soon and we are going back up or it takes a while and I am accumulating more. All good either way

    • @knockoutlightz
      @knockoutlightz Місяць тому

      I've been trying to get an advisor for guidance but it is harder than you'd think. Anyone who is fee only is hard to find and usually overloaded with work. Would you be comfortable providing a referral?

  • @Sherilynn82
    @Sherilynn82 Місяць тому +133

    The key is risk analysis. The markets are and has always been unpredictable. Thus the important point is not how much one might make but what one could lose. trading and holding on speculative stocks/Crypto and even great stocks can test ones ability in the arena of our ability to control ones loss aversion bias…buy high sell low…The market is overvalued by almost all measures like the CAPE and Buffett indicator. Speculation is high with things like meme stocks (are they dead yet?), our kitty dude, Ai dreaming and all.... It is all about how much one can lose during times like these. Does that mean don't invest, of course not but one must access the risk and have a way out if the tide goes out.....I've been engaged in active trading and managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.6B'tc to a decent 24B'tc....I'm especially grateful to Linda Wilburn, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.

    • @Sherilynn82
      @Sherilynn82 Місяць тому

      Linda Wilburn program is widely available online.

    • @Mikeygrady
      @Mikeygrady Місяць тому

      I appreciate the professionalism and dedication of the team behind Linda’s trade signal service.

    • @2Luisalvarado
      @2Luisalvarado Місяць тому

      Trading with an expert is the best strategy for beginners and busy investor s who have little or no time to monitor their trades.

    • @79AdventureBaby
      @79AdventureBaby Місяць тому

      The key to financial stability is having the right investment suggestions for a diverse portfolio. Many investment failures and losses happen when you invest without proper guidance.

    • @hollycarter3594
      @hollycarter3594 Місяць тому

      It was quite challenging to understand the different trends on my own until i found out about Wilburn. Trading made easy..

  • @tf1639
    @tf1639 Місяць тому +15

    Always the best macro fundamentals analysis around! Thank you again for the video.

  • @Harperrr.99
    @Harperrr.99 Місяць тому +212

    I came across some statements from big investors expressing concerns that the stock market rally could be short-lived. My concern is my $600K stock portfolio is still recovering from a dip of almost 40%, how do I navigate these complex situations?

    • @wellsHannahh
      @wellsHannahh Місяць тому +1

      Diversification and understanding market dynamics are crucial, especially during uncertainty. Monitor both positive and cautionary signals, or consult a professional expert.

    • @Blitcliffe
      @Blitcliffe Місяць тому +1

      A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burned by their own emotions. Early last year after my lengthy divorce I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.

    • @c.o.l.ek500
      @c.o.l.ek500 Місяць тому

      Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I'm in dire need for one

    • @Blitcliffe
      @Blitcliffe Місяць тому +1

      Lauren Marie Ehlers is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

    • @c.o.l.ek500
      @c.o.l.ek500 Місяць тому

      Thank you for the recommendation. I'll send her an email, and I hope I'm able to connect with her.

  • @FrozenDoberman
    @FrozenDoberman Місяць тому +3

    Essential viewing once per week. The historical S&P 500 versus individual sector charts are especially instructive. XLC and XLK historically outperforming the hard to beat S&P 500.

  • @afonsodeportugal
    @afonsodeportugal Місяць тому +6

    Thank you, Mr. Ciovacco. You never disappoint.

  • @Coda1850
    @Coda1850 Місяць тому +9

    You always have thoughtful & data driven analysis. Thank you for another great vid!

  • @GaneshD123
    @GaneshD123 Місяць тому +9

    Thank you for your time and hard work - very much appreciated.

  • @AnthonioMartinez43
    @AnthonioMartinez43 Місяць тому +36

    I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Michelle Stewart.

    • @NicholasClones
      @NicholasClones Місяць тому

      Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, I'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.

    • @NestorRockwell
      @NestorRockwell Місяць тому

      She is my family's personal broker and also a personal broker in many families in United States, she's a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in United states

    • @StephanieIngrid84
      @StephanieIngrid84 Місяць тому

      You trade with Michelle Stewart too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.

    • @TrevorFairbanks238
      @TrevorFairbanks238 Місяць тому

      I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?

    • @JahrrendArnold
      @JahrrendArnold Місяць тому

      I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much

  • @rainerluthershelley5131
    @rainerluthershelley5131 Місяць тому +9

    Thanks again. Good weekend. 👋

  • @SamanthaSanchez-sj5el
    @SamanthaSanchez-sj5el Місяць тому +11

    My aunt passed and I inherited some of her portfolio and cash savings, I’m 28 with about 400k cash in savings and as usual everybody’s preaching invest, so what stocks are a good long term buy, only major purchase I intend to make is buying a home in 5years from my returns

    • @Donalddavies-gc9rb
      @Donalddavies-gc9rb Місяць тому +4

      Lucky you, I’d buy a lot of tech stocks and Dividend portfolios with that.

    • @Jones21554
      @Jones21554 Місяць тому +2

      Don’t come to UA-cam looking for UA-cam advise, instead contact a fiduciary for proper guidance.

    • @Infinitymazepa7920
      @Infinitymazepa7920 Місяць тому +3

      Same, I just use UA-cam for research purposes, I run all my major investment through an investment adviser, the market is just too unstable to handle things on your own.

    • @SamanthaSanchez-sj5el
      @SamanthaSanchez-sj5el Місяць тому +1

      How do I reach out to a financial advisor? my portfolio has been struggling since 2022 and I’ve been holding on by the skin of my teeth.

    • @Infinitymazepa7920
      @Infinitymazepa7920 Місяць тому

      Laura Grace Abels, you'll be in luck at this time of year to have a conversation. lady is hot topic in downtown manhattan and you must not be and accredited investor. Just browse

  • @wrbk19
    @wrbk19 Місяць тому +1

    The GOAT of YT Technical Analysis!

  • @paulantony99
    @paulantony99 Місяць тому +6

    Thanks Sir Chris.

  • @eugenegarrett1156
    @eugenegarrett1156 Місяць тому +5

    Thank You, Chris 😊

  • @jkinder92
    @jkinder92 Місяць тому +1

    As always, an informative watch that compliments my own process. Thank you for sharing your analysis and for offering this all for free!

  • @brutwinky6492
    @brutwinky6492 Місяць тому +6

    Great video, thanks.

  • @DreamsOfBullRuns
    @DreamsOfBullRuns Місяць тому +5

    Question please: why dont you consider volume in your analysis?

  • @Carol-cb9yu
    @Carol-cb9yu Місяць тому +4

    Thanks, always worth my time to watch.

  • @AuntBetty_FOMO
    @AuntBetty_FOMO Місяць тому +1

    Great observations contrary to many mainline opinions! Thanks. Ill be on the lookout.

  • @benruggiano6306
    @benruggiano6306 Місяць тому +3

    Thank You so much for your insight ..

  • @peters972
    @peters972 Місяць тому +1

    Thank you both!

  • @sebastiaanthijn7982
    @sebastiaanthijn7982 Місяць тому +70

    Every week I buy more of whatever is the lowest percentage of my portfolio and try to keep everything around 10%, but what could be my safest buys with $400k to outperform the market in 2024?

    • @cherylhills3227
      @cherylhills3227 Місяць тому

      what could be my safest buys with $100k to outperform the market ?

    • @ClayneBanks
      @ClayneBanks Місяць тому +1

      I would avoid the index funds, mutual funds, or specific stocks for the time being. The 5% fixed incomes are the safest bet for now. Save your cash for when the market actually shows sign of recovery

    • @ZhannaDavidova
      @ZhannaDavidova Місяць тому

      my retirement portfolio has been underperforming recently, and I'm considering a strategy change with the help of an adviser. Is it possible to get in touch with an adviser ?

    • @ClayneBanks
      @ClayneBanks Місяць тому

      @@ZhannaDavidova
      People often underestimate the role of financial planners until they experience the consequences of their own mistakes.

    • @ClayneBanks
      @ClayneBanks Місяць тому

      I’ve been working with Bruce Kevin Begley, I started my first stock in Feb 21, 2022 I noticed the market went down the whole year so now I’m up a lot of money endless we go back to the October lows I will keep putting more stocks super excited for 2024 the payoff will be great.

  • @anodyneforever3996
    @anodyneforever3996 Місяць тому +3

    Not answered, nothing actionable, as usual.

  • @tonymartucci7097
    @tonymartucci7097 Місяць тому +1

    Thanks Chris

  • @TheSwift121
    @TheSwift121 Місяць тому +32

    Negative responses from the know it all audience is very annoying. If you don’t like the show or believe in his views, stop complaining and go make your own video then maybe you will appreciate not only his wisdom, but also all the effort he puts in to give to us free of charge.

    • @WiseOwl_1408
      @WiseOwl_1408 Місяць тому +1

      Cry harder. Dude says both directions at once every video.

    • @eliasjr1049
      @eliasjr1049 Місяць тому +1

      I`m not sure if this is directed also to me since i challenged his views in the video 2 weeks ago. But just by making a comment I can show some light on things i dont need a video. Now if feel annoyed its more like a you problem.

    • @eliasjr1049
      @eliasjr1049 Місяць тому

      Also i dont need to make a video since Ron Walker does them really well already

    • @afonsodeportugal
      @afonsodeportugal Місяць тому +1

      @@WiseOwl_1408 Not true. He talks about probabilities, so one direction is always more likely than the other.

  • @TONYMOR
    @TONYMOR Місяць тому +2

    Good review of current trends, thanks.

  • @beau6113
    @beau6113 Місяць тому +1

    Thank you!

  • @bradnic88802
    @bradnic88802 Місяць тому +4

    Thanks Chris!!

  • @AmandaStewart0908
    @AmandaStewart0908 Місяць тому +22

    I lost over $70k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Natalie Strayer..

    • @Josephbasta827
      @Josephbasta827 Місяць тому

      I'm surprised that you just mentioned Natalie Strayer here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.

    • @Rodriguezpaul-9
      @Rodriguezpaul-9 Місяць тому

      The very first time we tried, we invested $2000 and after a week, we received $9500. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.

    • @Nguyenvictory83
      @Nguyenvictory83 Місяць тому

      Natalie Strayer has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in Canada 🇨🇦 as she has been really helpful and changed lots of life's

    • @DaveCulbertson
      @DaveCulbertson Місяць тому

      I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?

    • @Scottweeier846
      @Scottweeier846 Місяць тому

      After I raised up to 125k trading with her I bought a new House and a car here in the states also paid for my son's surgery
      Glory to God shalom.

  • @dianasong4594
    @dianasong4594 Місяць тому +1

    thank u very much

  • @amoritius
    @amoritius Місяць тому +9

    Hi Chris, not sure if you look at these comments. But, I appreciate the work you put in to bring us these videos every week. My only feedback is to make them much shorter (5-10m) by removing redundant graphs

    • @alex34212l
      @alex34212l Місяць тому

      Indeed. And also Chris make a sum up at the end

    • @GaneshD123
      @GaneshD123 Місяць тому +3

      The longer, in-depth and detailed analysis is also very much appreciated.

    • @tf1639
      @tf1639 Місяць тому +3

      Watch it on 1.75x speed. Simple 😂😂

    • @afonsodeportugal
      @afonsodeportugal Місяць тому +3

      "I'm sorry, Sir, my ham sandwich has to much meat in it. Could you please remove most of it?"

  • @mikes.2471
    @mikes.2471 Місяць тому +6

    The charts can not really forecast what's about to happen in the next 2-3 months b/c they averages are derived from past data points.

    • @WiseOwl_1408
      @WiseOwl_1408 Місяць тому

      Every chart

    • @eliasjr1049
      @eliasjr1049 Місяць тому

      @@WiseOwl_1408 There`s better things to look at, like eliot wave or the 125 plus years old upward trend line that spy was touching 2 weeks ago . Thats why i challenged his video 2 weeks ago. Because i saw an 9 count sell on spy and nasdaq. And all these avg will follow afterwards.

    • @rainerluthershelley5131
      @rainerluthershelley5131 Місяць тому +1

      Statistical probabilities

    • @doubleclick21
      @doubleclick21 Місяць тому +2

      I don't watch these videos for any sort of predictions. I'm watching them to understand wtf happened in the last weeks/months while I was busy at work and dollar cost averaging my accounts with every last spare penny.

    • @rainerluthershelley5131
      @rainerluthershelley5131 Місяць тому

      @@doubleclick21 Ok

  • @theripper791
    @theripper791 Місяць тому +2

    In the long run there are reasons small caps are small, and large caps are large. Small caps have been overbought the last 2 weeks and the large caps are getting oversold. I think position for another rotation of a different kind.

  • @anityasufi4079
    @anityasufi4079 Місяць тому

    It would be easier to follow the cursor if it is changed to a cross hair cursor. The current cursor style easily gets lost in a cluster of moving averages. Please change it to a cross hair. Thanks,

  • @gringadoor5385
    @gringadoor5385 Місяць тому

    This guy would buy Cisco in 1999. "Looks a lot healthier on the right than the left".

    • @CoffiBot2dotoh
      @CoffiBot2dotoh Місяць тому

      So would I. It didn't peak for another year or two.

  • @seventh7orbit
    @seventh7orbit Місяць тому

    Thanks Chris. I've started booking profits, but waiting for more weakness before I start shorting.

  • @crispiest99
    @crispiest99 Місяць тому

    What about bitcoin?

  • @deathcubek5117
    @deathcubek5117 Місяць тому +3

    Dang im early

  • @touchofgrace3217
    @touchofgrace3217 Місяць тому

    I’m not convinced that looking at past patterns is necessarily going to be useful in this era.
    The presenter is comparing 2008 to now. In 2008 only 14% of the money in the market was held by passive “investors”. Today, that number has ballooned to nearly 50%. The newer generation is being told to blindly dollar cost average into the machine no matter what with absolutely no knowledge or concern of the condition of the underlying companies or economy.
    The recent popularity of ETFs is skewing what the real market looks like.
    Many of the current investors are not anticipating a bear market because they don’t know what leads to one.

    • @CoffiBot2dotoh
      @CoffiBot2dotoh Місяць тому

      how do you expect them to learn about what brings about a bear market without looking at past charts?

  • @quocbao4243
    @quocbao4243 Місяць тому +3

    You only had 3 relatively muted down days in a row. Of course, the charts are still in tact. Let’s take another snap shot in a couple weeks to have a more constructive analysis.

    • @Coda1850
      @Coda1850 Місяць тому +2

      You can only trade the chart in front of you.

    • @quocbao4243
      @quocbao4243 Місяць тому

      @@Coda1850 We are not talking about trading anything. Just looking at the rosy picture Chris is painting. BTW, does Chris encourage his clients to hold even a small percentage of their portfolio in precious metals for an insurance policy against a financial crisis? I didn’t think so. But, I bet Chris has Gold in his possession. He just can’t make money by telling you to do the same.

    • @Coda1850
      @Coda1850 Місяць тому +1

      Sounds like you're predicting a crash. That's a proven losing strategy.

    • @afonsodeportugal
      @afonsodeportugal Місяць тому

      @@quocbao4243 Muted? SOXX lost 9.02%, and SMH lost 9.59%! In just three days!!!

    • @quocbao4243
      @quocbao4243 Місяць тому

      @@Coda1850I’m not predicting anything. Just making a point that the charts aren’t likely to change in a meaningful way with just 3 down days. But, now that you mention it, I did just happen to watch an analyst with a differing view from your king Chris:
      ua-cam.com/video/2yQxJ3I_vc4/v-deo.htmlsi=lmvU0wuVzSAz_ujy

  • @tradingwithwill7214
    @tradingwithwill7214 Місяць тому

    ratio charts ftw

  • @boombustinvest
    @boombustinvest Місяць тому

    This video confirms to me your bias...despite following price trends, When the downturn comes you will say "ok so here we go this is that once a while big correction that I've warned can happen" ... yeh ok, but you will have persuaded many thousands of people to stay in the markets and that there is no other choice! I'm writing this comment only 3 minutes in watching it because I can see what you are doing... you are making the current 6 month comparison with the 6 month comparison before the start of the 2022 and saying "look it looks nothing like it" Firstly it does VERY MUCH look like the end of the 2022 bull run it's just that you have started the six months on this 6 month cycle about 2 months earlier than the 2022 six month period. i.e. take any 6 month period in this delusional AI bubble and then compare it to a six month period ending 6 to 8 weeks into a downturn. It says to me that you are biased towards ignoring risk.
    Same bias is shown Chris compare's the rotation into bonds in early 2008 compared now... well of course AGG:SPY will look totally different as we haven't had any rate cuts yet.

  • @markettrader911
    @markettrader911 Місяць тому +11

    Haven’t and will not watch the video because I know Chris will conclude: no, stocks are not rolling over in a risk-off manner.

    • @1Whipperin
      @1Whipperin Місяць тому +3

      The best bet is to stay long.

    • @justindipaola2066
      @justindipaola2066 Місяць тому +3

      The take profits from shm and xlk and start a position in small caps and equal weight was very different.

    • @eliasjr1049
      @eliasjr1049 Місяць тому

      You know it, he follow all those lines of support that will rise until the market fall 15% and broke them all...

    • @wyhauyeung
      @wyhauyeung Місяць тому

      i am new follower. can you educate me is the channel just always bullish ?

    • @doubleclick21
      @doubleclick21 Місяць тому

      ​@@eliasjr1049in one of his past videos he talked about sacrificing the most recent 10% of your gains sometimes in order to avoid much more significant losses ahead. A concept that really stuck with me. Of course if things roll over you are probably down a bit from your/the high. "WeLL tHeN hIs cHaRts ArE uSELeSs!!1." No... sure, you might be down 15 or 20% already, but you still need to be willing to sacrifice those prior gains if necessary (instead of desperately hoping for them all back, or being fooled by a dead cat bounce, etc) to avoid going down another 20-30%+. It helps if you go into the entire exercise not thinking 1) that you have perfect timing 2) that the most recent 5, 10, or 15% worth of gains really belong to you. They are the froth, the icing, the noise... focus on maintaining the base value underneath all that.

  • @teenoso4069
    @teenoso4069 Місяць тому +6

    Be careful of the words of a man whose living depends on a rising market and fees

    • @anirbansahavlogs
      @anirbansahavlogs Місяць тому

      This I have traded markets long enough to know that MAs are lagging indicator and it does not mean sh$t what the MA does, yes risk to reward is better but it does not in any shape or form predict market movements. US markets are moving up because of the dollar being a reserve and US being able to export inflation outside. Now that trend is reversing esp after the dollar was weaponized. It will take time but US topping big time. No money manager would tell you that as they will not earn if you sit on cash or buy gold. The FED has beed artificially pushng recession out and they have been successful for the last 15 years but this time is different from last few decades. High debt, world moving away from dollar, unsustainable fiscal policy, internal division between idealogies at peak. Just imaging if US becomes the next UK. Decades of sideways movement and consumers unable to afford expensive goods. This passive investing bubble would deflate. Again i am not calling for a crash but you shuld diversify, US stocks are too overpriced. And every week this channel will still put the same video its all right we need your capital and fees.

  • @user-nn4dl4oi8n
    @user-nn4dl4oi8n Місяць тому +2

    Bullish as always, nothing has changed

    • @eliasjr1049
      @eliasjr1049 Місяць тому

      It changed, you just dont realized yet. But in 2-3 weeks from now you will....

    • @user-nn4dl4oi8n
      @user-nn4dl4oi8n Місяць тому

      @@eliasjr1049 not if you watch the video, hes just saying healthy pullback and we will be higher

    • @jimwalker3039
      @jimwalker3039 Місяць тому

      After we go down 20%, this channel will advice caution, till then bull

  • @Meowmeow.age.6
    @Meowmeow.age.6 Місяць тому +1

    Hyperinflation. I been fully invested since the backtest of the previous trading box around SPY 360 staples like Pepsi Microsoft Apple META etc. got some gold and Bitcoin.
    Everything went to the moon.
    I am buying lots of guns and ammo and rations. I don't know how society will function with everything crashing up. I pray we all make it through these dark days.
    Prices won't stop doubling. Pretty soon a combo at McDonald's will be $50. And people won't afford to save themselves by buying Microsoft stock. 😭😭😭
    I don't know how long I can survive. My portfolio is only 8 mil in dollars but the new currency is going to be bitcoins and stocks will never keep up 😭😭. I am so scared to buy actual bitcoins because I am so forgetful and I will forget my keys 😭😭😭
    I tell people to panic buy everyday before it is too late.

    • @delos2279
      @delos2279 Місяць тому +2

      Pretty good trolling for an 8 y.o.

    • @colinwinterman
      @colinwinterman Місяць тому

      @@delos2279 do you mean me or him

  • @weitheceo
    @weitheceo Місяць тому +1

    Best sleeping promoting sound.

  • @mjbucar
    @mjbucar Місяць тому +1

    Thank you Chris!