Make 15% RETURN on Debt Mutual Funds & GOI Bonds | Just 10% LTCG Tax | RBI Repo Rate 2024
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- Опубліковано 8 тра 2024
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Leveraging the interest rate cycle presents a tactical opportunity for investors to maximize returns in debt instruments like bonds and debt mutual funds. In this video, I present a case for investing in long duration debt funds and long maturity government of India bonds. Ofcourse, predicting the interest rate cycle is important and I present some factors investors should consider to this effect i.e. when is the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) likely to reduce its repo rate which will increase bond prices and allow investors to make mark-to-market gains (capital appreciation) from the bonds held by them.
In my view, the repo rate reductions are just 5-6 months away and fixed-income investors can capitalize on this to make potential returns of up to 15-16% -- double of what they make on fixed-income instruments like fixed deposits, debt funds and bonds. Additionally, considering tax advantages, listed bonds present an attractive investment option.
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👉 Video Chapters:
00:00 Interest Rate Cycle & High Returns on Fixed Income Instruments
01:26 RBI Repo Rate and How to Calculate Bond Prices
06:30 Where are the RBI Repo Rates headed in 2024?
07:12 1. Global Interest Rate Cut
08:09 2. India's Inflation Rate
09:25 3. Government of India's Fiscal Deficit
10:23 4. Inclusion of Indian Bonds in Emerging Market Bond Index
11:35 What Bond Managers say on changes in RBI Repo Rates?
13:59 What can Debt Fund Investors do?
#rbireporate #debtmutualfunds #bonds #debtfunds #interestrates
Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered investment advisor or research analyst. I am not registered with PFRDA or IRDA either. The content posted on this platform is purely for educational purposes and none of it constitutes investing or trading advice. Viewers should do their own research and diligence before investing or acting on the information presented. Some of the links I have posted in the video, the description, the comments and other related resources might be affiliate links
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I have been your viewer since many days, the best part of all your videos is statistical data and simplicity.. extensive research, best presentation and key topics are your USPs..
Thank you very much. I am glad you like my work. It's a lot easier for me to learn with numbers but believe it, it's very difficult to convince someone with data if he/she doesn't want to believe in it. I'm glad you and I speak the same language.
Thank you very much, I learnt it from you to play along with the numbers. I am planning to invest in one of the gilt funds whose Macaulay Duration (in yrs) is 7.53, would it work? I believe gilt fund primarily invest in long term government securities/ bonds
For the past couple of years, I have been following your video. Your contents are well researched and well presented. I am learning a lot from your contents. Kindly share Video on best Debt funds.
Right video at the right time. I just started shifting towards sbi megnum gilt and sbi long duration funds just to play interest rate. Been waiting for this opportunity since 2020...
What timing Shankar sir! Was just viewing your debt fund video on ET money earlier today 😄
I would pay for this type of content! Thank you, Shankar!
Glad you liked it. Most welcome 🙌
Insightful and easy to consume information. Thank you! Would you say a Dynamic Bond fund (most have already pivoted to longer durations) be a better way to play it for someone that wants the money in debt for a longer (3Yr-ish) duration?
Most welcome 🙌 ... I don't have a preference for one category of debt MF over another i.e. dynamic versus medium vs 10Y constant vs long duration. I'm more keen on the constituents' duration and if the maturities are on the longer side, then this setup can be tested on them. I'll prefer to go scheme by scheme rather than category by category
In my view you keep faith in fund manager when you select the dynamic bond for rebalnced returns but in other gilt products you have the responsibility to manage with markets. Thanks.
Have been watching content of Shankar since he used to make videos for ET Money...His content is always informative, concise and clear.
Happy to know you like my work
I was struggling to understand Bond Pricing during CFA....but this vedio has helped me to understand the topic better.
Glad you found it helpful 🙌
Sir, from which website do you check the data of Indices like its Returns, PE ratio etc of last 20-25 years.
@@bookscutshort6648 niftyindices.com
@@shankarnath thanks sir
Hey Shankar! Great content as always, I had just started building some positions using gilt mfs.
I am not exactly clear on the 10% taxation part and what is a 'listed bond'. I was able to locate the article you show as a screenshot but do you have any resources where I can read up and understand more about the debt investments that are taxed at a favourable 10% ?
Thank you! Pls read: primeinvestor.in/how-are-g-secs-bonds-and-ncds-taxed/
You have given quality financial content on youtube. This channel is underrated. Appreciate the hardwork!
Thank you so much 😀
Well researched content with lot of data points as always!! One question, please give some examples on listed bonds
Thank you. Some examples:
www.moneycontrol.com/fixed-income/bonds/listed-bonds/
www.wintwealth.com/bonds/listed-bonds/
www.capitalmarket.com/markets/Bonds/listed-bonds
@@shankarnath How do I invest in them and how do I choose amongs them. most look from private companies rather than government.
Kindly do a Google search on this query. Dozens of results will pop out from platforms that offer this facility incl. the process and other details
Great content. Pls make more of such videos. 💯👍✨
Thank you 🙌
Thanks Shankar excellent video . Just 1 question is there a co-relation of the returns of the long term bond fund with domestic equity markets ?
Glad you liked it. Statistically, there has to be a correlation between Indian equities & long duration bond funds. I don't have any numbers but in my view, causality is the bigger question
This is brilliant... Reminded me of economics classes in CA foundation...
Immensely meaningful and informative
Glad you found it useful and informative
Will it be a good idea to invest in scheme g of nps tier 1?
A debt find series is needed. How about using nps tier 2 with 0% equity and say 50% each to govt and corp bonds. Will be be benefical as long term bonds as you described
1. Thanks for the suggestion
2. That would hinge on the constituent maturity of particular pension fund manager's debt strategy with re: Class C and Class G. Every manager might have a different take on interest rates
@@jishnu18 Can you share the links to Class G portfolios where investments have gone to short duration or money market funds (and not long duration)?
@@rajh7832 I didn't know that, thanks for sharing. Importantly - can you share the name of the pension fund whose Tier-2 account for Class G is made up of short duration funds?
@@shankarnath hdfc
Thanks for great content sir. As you said in last time, i tried to follow corporate news in moneycontrol. But it filled with huge contents and lost in that way. Can you explain way to follow corporate announcements.
Most welcome. You can also try this : www.bseindia.com/corporates/ann.html
@@shankarnath Thanks for suggestions
SN, It would be great if you extend your research expertise & data analysis application to target maturity funds. I feel it's a unique opportunity for retailers to invest now in Long Duration TMF with lowest risk & double debit returns returns when gains peak out. Kindly explain & expand. Thanks very much.
Thanks for the suggestion
Sir, could you enlighten us about market link debentures ( MLD ) . It is possible to make any investment strategy
Thanks for the suggestion
Nippon India nivesh lakshya fund has a maturity of 20-22 yrs
Modi has made debt and gold fund investments less attractive by removing tax benefits on them . At least , debt / gold funds should have some tax efficiency like equity funds .
Yes
Good video shankar.. Though i invest in equity and MF am yet to try bonds.. Pls suggest some specific bonds to invest.. Does m stock offer bonds.. If not which platform do you recommend
Thank you!
1. I don't invest in bonds either. Infact, I didn't know listed bonds were taxed at 10% before this video (although I had read it somewhere but didn't pay attention to it then). Perhaps I too should try investing in bonds.
2. With re: platform, there are tons of them. Please try "invest in bonds india" on Google search for multiple options. Bonds can also be bought from your trading account
Thanks shankar.. On a lighter note.. Why the waistcoat.. Look more trendy❤
Love your Videos Shankar, they can be easily prescribed as part of any MBA finance course.Keep up the good work
Thank you so much! I try to make them the way I would love to understand the topic .. glad you like the presentation & content 🙌
Was looking for this information. Good information. Thanks for your research and sharing. You mentioned about G bonds which we can buy on platform but how about T bills? Should one buy T bills?
Thank you! Are there long duration T-bills?
@@shankarnath
Understood. So T bills are available for max 364 days meaning short duration and hence may not have much sensitivity to rate cuts and not appreciation subsequently. Am I correct?
Sir
Very nice video.i saw three times . I have 2 questions
1 i have invested in 7.25 CS BOND 2063( 40 YRS GOVERNMENT SEC) for retirement instead of lic pension plan .what will effect on decreasing int rate by 1 percent . Should i lock cap appreciation in 2 yrs n reinvest .
2 i have got 30 lakh by maturing fd in bajaj fin. What should I do
(A) So for same (40 yrs bond)
(B) 10 to 15 yrs govt bond
(3) Long term debt fund like ( icici long term debt fund)
4 dynamic bond fund
One more thing i did not know the liquidity of these fund
Thanks
Highly Underrated channel. Many, Many Thanks & deep gratitude
Much appreciated! 🙌
Hi Sankar, it's superb information for individual investors. I have an additional request, a video on best Bond investment platform, what are best bonds, how to invest bond for 1-2 years
Thanks for the suggestion
very detailed and nicely illustrated.
Many thanks Rajeev! 🙌
Hi Shankar, will gilt funds also serve the same purpose?
Hello. Gilt funds are debt funds that invest primarily in government securities. Yes, these can work but pls ensure they are long duration. There can be short duration gilts funds too
Been an equity investor and trader since 2005 and while I understand bonds it is no where near as in depth as stocks and gold. Thanks for providing insights. In Momentum factor investing you had provided a method of using returns to swing in and out of a momentum fund. Is a similar technical method feasible on timing something like the Bharat Bond ETF?
Thanks! Yes, many HNIs and fund managers move in and out of bonds depending on the interest rate and credit risk cycle. I am not aware of any method around it though
@@shankarnathThanks for your response.
Very good information, thank you Shankar Nath. What about the Govt bonds scheme of NPS? Do you think, they too will rise? And is it prudent to cut down some equity exposure and move towards scheme in G in NPS?
Thank you! I can't be certain w/o knowing the maturity of Class G bonds within the NPS but a couple years back when I was researching it, I did notice that most fund managers then had opted for long duration. If it's the same case now i.e. the constituents are long duration GILTS, then Class G is likely to give good returns.
@@shankarnath A video on this would be highly appreciated.
I was thinking the same thing. But in the last video Shankar did on NPS, he found that bond portfolio of NPS has beaten bond mutual fund consistently.
@@Maknahar Thanks for the suggestion
@@jishnu18I just checked the LIC Tier 1 - G scheme returns, returns of 19-20% both in 2014 and 2016. And the top 5 holdings are long term gilts. So I think, NPS too will return handsomely well if the scenario plays out.
Related to this.. if there are rate cuts happening sooner or later, can we book long term fd asap.. higest rates on fd ( government sector) is around 7.5 to 8 percent...
The theory is sound. If bond yields are going to go down, then booking an FD now should be better than doing it 1 year later. One doesn't need to look beyond 2021, 2022 when fixed deposits were sub-6%
@@shankarnath thanks for the quick response... Your confirmation and analysis helps alot.. 🙏
Thank you for all the valuable learning you give us. All your videos are gems Shankar
It's my pleasure
Sir, great video. Please make video on nifty Alpha 50 index.
Thanks for the suggestion
One more excellent video, honestly I am confused between listed bonds vs gilt funds because most listed bonds have very low liquidity, do you think it’s better to bear tax pain & go with gilt funds?
Thanks. Apologies, I have no views on this as I have not invested in listed bonds myself. But curious to know --- when you say very low liquidity, have you come across a situation where selling 2-5 lakhs on bonds has been a problem? I mean: want to understand the intensity of liquidity .. my definition of liquidity will be very different from an institutions.
@@shankarnath yes it’s a problem. For example-SBI long duration bond fund’s 50% exposure is in 7.3%-2053 bond which is ~700 cr position but on most days the traded volume is 1k or near 1 lakh total traded amount, that’s why I said liquidity is very low. Almost all gilt/long duration bond fund’s underlying positions have similar trading volumes, so I preferred to stay with the mutual fund as they can easily handle redemption from their available cash
@@shankarnathWhat would be your definition of liquidity?
Sir why is my Power finance Bond is showing loss of 36000?
Hi Shankar, as always appreciate your content. During your ET money days, looking at you I had invested in ETMoney mutual funds Shield and Stable portfolio which predominantly good share will go to Debt funds which for me I'm riding at 8% and 10% CAGR respectively (however ETmoney is doing ok today) . Could you please create one video on Debentures vs Debt fund ?
Thanks for the suggestion
For the past couple of years, I have been following your video. Your contents are well researched and well presented. I am learning a lot from your contents. Kindly share Video on best Debt funds.
Thank you for the appreciation .. and the suggestion
Shankar, what do you think about actively managed gilt funds? Do you think the fund managers of big AUM gilt funds can provide good returns by strategically managing duration?
I really don't have any views on that because now that I have this knowledge, I don't rely on just fund managers to do the thinking for me. For instance -- predicting interest rates are going down, most fund managers and I will be heavy on long duration bonds. But when the cycle is turning - without waiting for what the fund manager is upto - I would move to shorter durations.
Thank you so much
Where i can buy these govt long term bonds which has 10% tax ?
Most welcome. Pls search on Google, you'll find a bunch of platforms there
Sir, invested in Nippon India Lakshya fund,What will be the right time to switch to short term fund? At time when rate cut cycle ends or to be continued for 5 years? Which redeem option is profitable? Thanks for your video.
This is fund for retirement planning , meaning 9 to 10% CAGR over 15 to 20 years above. If using as tactical then you have to wait for rates to begin down & reach bottom & start move up meaning be watchful of repo & NAVs. ( May take 3 to 5 years approximately)
Which is better Gilt fund or long duration fund (i.e., Nippon Nivesh Lakshya Fund)?
Awesome content. Thank you Shankar
Glad you liked it!
Very insightful video. Since I have never invested in bond related instruments, can you help guide on should I invest on direct bond or MF related to bond and if its MF can you please suggest some good MF. Thx
Could you guide me via articles or any sources to know about listed bonds
Hi, just type 'listed bonds in india' on Google search. You'll get tons of results
Dear Shankar, thanks for the great video. Please correct if my understanding is right. Since the bond prices are expected to go up. Its better to buy them now and sell let’s say in 1 year.
Most welcome. Yes, that is correct. As interest rates go lower, bond prices rise.
@@shankarnath Great. I think the trick would be to sell the bonds before the interest rates start going up. are bonds easily tradable in secondary market
Very informative video...just wondering if conservative hybrid fund would also behave in such a manner due to its weightage in debt funds?
Thanks! Again, its the same question -- is the debt in the conservative hybrid fund short duration or long duration?
@shankarnath The debt part is long term with 16 years as average maturity.
@@PRINCE-ms5sp Cool. Then you have the necessary data to decipher the information
Shankar Nath ⭐ thank you 😊
Most welcome 🙌
Your note to subscribe is lit ji.. ❤
Thank you very much
Shankar sir, understood but never invested in Bonds, can you suggest bond names and the apps/websites I can invest in 5 year, 10 year and 15 year bonds?
Please do a search on Google .. you'll receive dozens of results on platforms and bond options
Great content 👌
Thank you 🙌
Sir, can you please advise how and where to buy listed bonds?
Hello, please do a search on Google. Many platforms will show up
Great Video sir need of time
Thanks and welcome
Shall i choose Liquid fund or Gilt fund ? Plz advise
Gilts are long duration debt instruments
@@shankarnath Sir, which will be give more return Gilt funds vs Long duration fund, in case of rate cut and how much? Thanks
I'll have to circle back on this one as I haven't come across any news or research where a fund manager has given an accurate estimate of either the rate cut or the returns.
make a video like if u have lumpsum 30-50 lakh then how to invest wisely, my example store the fund in liquid fund then use stp method to invest monthly like that, discuss more ideas on this topic
Thanks for the suggestion
+1
Planning to do STP from SBI AMC. Please suggest source fund (debt funds to park amount)
Liquid fund or ultra short term fund
@@drkvenu ultra short term is less than 1 year i think
So liquid fund
A video on SWP for retiring people is requested
Thanks for the suggestion
Shankar just one more quick question - instead of investing in individual bonds can one use Nippon's LTGILTBEES ETF since it is pretty liquid and offers diversification. What's your take on it? Thanks, Sajeev
I've never explored LTGILTBEES ETF so don't a view on it. Sorry!
@@shankarnathReally appreciate you taking time out to answer individual queries. Thanks & keep up the good work!
n the past there were few Mutual Funds scheme which got closed or didnt worked Many youtubers influecners are making videos on mutual fund scheme but no one is telling us the history of mutual Funds in india like in year 1999-2000 many mutual fund scheme closed and many people money were gone almost to nil we want a video on those mutual funds why the fund got closed and how does this all happen how do we will get to know about when a mutual fund will close their scheme for example- Reliance natural resources Fund
Do make a video on this and share some knowledge which others wont thnakyou
It is still worth investing in ICIC pru long term MF ????
I normally never comment on Videos, but this time I have to say this Video is a Gem!
Thank you very much. Kindly comment more often -- a few years back, I was at a retreat when the guru there said something that has since then become a guiding principle. He said: "if you haven't appreciated a thousand people in your lifetime and if you haven't done enough deeds to have received a thousand applauses -- then what life have you lived?"
You suggest buying listed long duration bonds instead of long duration debt funds in order to reduce the tax outgo. Are these listed bonds sufficiently liquid and will we be able to find buyers when we have to offload them?
It's difficult to generalize this as different bonds might have a different liquidity profile
Can you please give some examples of listed bonds which attract 10% tax? Does bharat bonds fall into that category?
May I request you to run a quick search on Google, dozens of platforms with hundreds of listed bonds will pop out
@@shankarnath tried it sir.. unfortunately, i see platforms to buy bonds but not sell. So little confused how to sell them.
@@kranthikandey1216 You can always write to 3-4 platform's customer service with your queries. Hope you have tried that route
So the PPF and other gov schemes interest will also be increased ?
Not sure, you might want to check the profile of bonds within the PPF and other government schemes.
They will go down
@@wealthwisdomwithCARajshree I am doing PPF investment for past 4 Year, so will this impact interest rate go below 7.1% ?
PPF will also can be considered as a long term debt fund right so.
Please share the bond calculator to understand effect of interest rate on it?
Where can we see the long term listed bonds with their details to take a 1-1.5yr bet?
Kindly do a search on Google.com .. both i.e. calculator & platforms offering listed bonds with details are readily available.
Sir, I checked the niftyindices website to know the data of various indices like it's return, PE Ratio etc.
But, sir vha par last 5 years ka to data mil jata hai Monthly reports mein but last 15-20 years ka data nhi milta.
I also searched in the historical data section, usmein vo open & close price to show karta hai but year on year percentage change nhi show karta.
Can you tell how can I find year on year data of all the indices.
That's strange. I've been doing this for more than 5 years, been extracting data from 01.04.2005 onwards for most indicies. Please send me a screen recording of what you are doing. You can load it on a drive and paste the link in the comments
Which long term debt funds to invest in
Explore long duration or target maturity funds beyond 2030
Pls guide for safe govt bond
Government bonds come with sovereign guarantee
Can I buy direct long term bonds from RBI portal. Can I sell them in open market
Yes
Honestly I have not been able to understand debt funds and the ‘timing’ aspect of investing into them. Last year there was a lot of negative commentary about the tax treatment of debt funds to add to my nervousness. That said- I have held some positions in a dynamic bond fund from two different AMCs, merely as a hedge against my equity MFs. They seem to have woken up off late , but I do hope to improve my understanding of debt funds and am counting on a ‘for dummies’ version from you Shankar 🙏
Where do buy these bonds from
There are tons of platforms, a search on Google will show dozens of results
Sir, so its good to invest in long term govt bond or debt funds?, can you give an example pls
I'm sorry, I didn't understand the example bit. Can you pls clarify?
@@shankarnath Sir, based on your video, should we invest in long duration debt fund like HDFC long duration debt fund or good to buy bonds directly ftom RBI through RDG account? Pls advise.
Sir is it a good time to invest in a hybrid fund hanving allocation of 22% in equities and rest in debt ?
What is maximum intrest can be for pledging stock
I didn't understand. Can you please rephrase it?
Interest range of pleding stock in year
I wanted take 1-O-1 advisory service but I am not able to locate the link. Can you please help?
Hi, you can email me at hello@beginnersbuck.com
@@shankarnath Thank you. I will send an email.
@@shankarnath I sent you an email as suggested by you. I hope you have gotten that.
All seasons bond fund takes care of the interest rate cycles right?
You might want to check the constituents and duration on the fund factsheet
Sir just a doubt now rate cuts r expected early. Do not you think it is also raising price of NAV once rate will be postponed NAV will come down 🙏
I'm sorry, the question is not clear to me. Can you share some data pls?
@@shankarnath I m sorry as it was not clear.
I wanted to say that investors have already priced FED rates cut by June in many assets like gold, equity, even bonds.
Don't you think if rate cut moves ahead it will read to reduce NAV specifically for gilt funds. Gilt funds has given 3% in the last 3 months
Thank you for the effort as always. Gentle reminder on the request for the video to generate 1cr corpus by 2030😊
Thanks for the suggestion
Can you suggest some schemes that fit your suggestion , listed debt funds that have 10% tax advantage and long duration
Pls click on www.nseindia.com/market-data/bonds-traded-in-capital-market and do a descending order sort on the last column (maturity date). The first entry after the sort will be NHIT expiring on 14-Nov-2047
Nifty GSec 2036 maturity can be option??
It is definitely a long duration debt instrument .. a portfolio of 3 G-Secs that are maturing between Jul 2035 & Jun 2036
Sir what happened today in JTL industry,,stock is down 20% today,,,is there any issue from management side,,because as far as I know there is no issue in balance sheet
Beyond what's been posted on X, I have no further information
Please guide whether to go with long term debt mutual fund or GSecs directly. Also my understanding is that the interest gain is taxed at normal rates and only the capital gain is taxed differently. A sample calculation with the overall returns considering both can help. Thanks
Can I invest lumpsum in long term bond fund? Or will it be risky like equity? Time horizon- 1-2years
1. Lumpsum investing is possible
2. It will be as risky/volatile as equities
Can short term bonds funds be subscribed instead to reap benefits of rate cut ?
I'm guessing a rate cut will have some impact on short duration bonds. I haven't analysed it, if you find something worthwhile pls do share. Curious to know
5:15 mstock does not have DDPI nor it can do offline transfer shares from CDSL Easiest. Shoonya is also zero brokeage yet better at features.
These yields are gonna go down
Yes, that's the good news
For those who haven't understood it:
Repo rate is the interest rate that government is giving.
If Repo rate is greater than Bond rate, bond rates fall cause I am getting more return on a safer asset
If Repo rate is lesser than Bond rate, Bond rates rise cause I am getting more for my buck, via risk reward
Sir ,Please clarify , many thanks.
I have Equity small cap fund 1000 units @ 148.75 NAV, , purchased 1 year ago , now current NAV is Rs.255 , If I sell all 1000 units, how I much I have to pay Income tax ? Is my calculation is correct ?
Profit = (1000*255) -(1000*148.75) =Rs.106250 , Income tax is Rs.625
Hi, I myself use a chartered accountant to figure these things out as tax is not my strong suite. May I advise you to do the same, atleast am not the right person to comment on this
You should clarify the assumptions - The buyer of the bond is from inception date and the holder of the bond doesn't sell before maturity. Buying from the secondary market when an interest rate has been reduced at 4:49 inherently reduces your ultimate return due to price differential.
So one should invest in debt fund in lumpsum immediately or after election or after RBI reduce rates may be after august /september ? Which will give best return? @shankar nath
Sir please disclose your portfolio size and amount of wealth you have made through your investment journey Curious to know how such knowledgeable person can make money in market
May I know how this curiosity of knowing what I have made helps you?
👍🏻
Sir ji karna kya hai
very complex
Heloooo
Can you make the Video in Hindi to better understand
Awesome content. Thank you Shankar
So nice of you