NZ Property Market Update (Feb 2024)

[@williamfrost6933]

Basically every report on property markets are funded by people with property investments. Obviously they're going to ultimately report positive trends to encourage the market and boost their wealth.

[@edmcknight1375]

That's definitely true for us at Opes. But not true for organisations like CoreLogic and REINZ. Those guys are funded by real estate agents and researchers, not property investors.

[@stefanleslie2908]

It's the banks. It always is the banks and money supply. Inflation is caused from banks and money supply, they are the problem. Chch is up because it is a brand new city. Wellington is down because it is a dump of a place full of cold dark old homes. Yet banks control the price.
So go to your local bank and say you have no money either. Then ask them how they give you money ? Ask them
Does the bank lend depositors funds?
Did the bank lend anything of substance?
Do you the bank loan legal tender or other depositor's funds?
Who holds the original loan agreement that I signed?
Why did the loan agreement ask for my Will?
Did that give you power of attorney?
Is my house security for the mortgage?
Was my loan note lodged as a security with the sensual securities depository trust Ltd?
After you rang and told me that my loan was approved why did my solicitor call me and ask me to sign a mortgage? I know why but it takes too long to explain
I ask this question as banks even yourself said loan this does not want banks to do. I give you my deposits as an alone you sell mortgage but often advertise loans.
Most people can not see the fraud especially kiwis

[@KingsDaughter.]

Same thing ​@@edmcknight1375

[@olitahakai913]

😮 I’m

[@nzvi11ian]

You really try and understate the downward trends and overstate the upward ones don't you? Interest rates are not going down anytime soon, inflation still sticky - Deadcat bounce IMO

[@edmcknight1375]

Interesting. Which specific trends are you talking about? The cool thing is we all view the market differently and can have a good discussion.

[@nzvi11ian]

@@edmcknight1375 The dip in the December figures mainly. How do you feel about interest rates this year? On their way down?

[@edmcknight1375]

@@nzvi11ian Yeah the dip in December is interesting. Because it is a 1.1% dip in the actual figures. But when you seasonally adjust it, it's a 0.3-0.4% dip. Hey you might be right, and prices could start going down. Let's look forward to the January data and see what happens. The Jan data should be out mid-Feb.

[@geofflewis8599]

I bought a house in 2015 for $250,000, most recent rating valuation $620,000, cheer up buddy..

[@tarat5122]

House prices are about to go down in record numbers. Thats good news for us who want to buy a house to live in but bad news for you and your friends that are trying to make money from properties 😊

[@timothyburrows8385]

Talk it up,but the long term is DOWN,buy now,get ripped off,make property investers money,but you will lose!

[@edmcknight1375]

@@timothyburrows8385 I would love to see the data you guys are looking at. What's telling you that property prices are trending down over the long term?

[@Schiphorstify]

Sorry mate. We are at the bottom of the cycle. If you can’t afford now you probably never will. Remember the communists have been kicked out, land lords can claim interest and National will spend less driving down inflation

[@richardnimmo2092]

No one ‘expert’ ever seems to mentioned that property prices go up when banks and government agree to increase the volume of money through quantitative easing. Your property is going up because your currency is being diluted or inflated away, hence inflation.

[@karlseastrand7678]

Move over Ashley Church. There is a new pretender on the block making comments and predictions just as funny as yours. This video and Ed's comments have aged like a cup of milk in a sun room.

[@user-ob8bk3ld9q]

House prices up in a recession and interest rates at the floating 8% mark almost quadrupling of what they were. This could only be one thing the market has still a high demand - And why would that be - Quote - Provisional estimates for the year ended January 2023 compared with the year ended January 2022 were: migrant arrivals: 130,800 (± 1,600), up 142 percent. migrant departures: 97,700 (± 1,100), up 37 percent. A massive influx of migrants that are also overwhelming infrastructure.

[@thinking102]

Couldn’t agree more

[@raza.m]

Dead cat bounce

[@raza.m]

Market isn't coming back until central banks start printing money again. Liquidity drives growth (inflation)

[@roilhead]

​@@raza.mLow house prices mean that it is unaffordable to build new at present. Once the Govt realises that very few houses are being built they will need to make some changes to encourage more new builds to house the masses. The next hurdle after that is the lack of builders to kick start it again. The older guys are off the tools due to age and Labours silly new rule changes and the younger newly trained builders are leaving for Ozzy. The perfect storm is fast approaching for house prices.

[@raza.m]

As per my understanding, markets decide most of those factors than government. Though central bank policies are driving these boom and busts in the market right now. Unfortunately it's part of the financial system we live in. That transfer wealth to parties with cheap credit availability and widen gap between rich and poor

[@roilhead]

@@raza.m Labour flooded the markets with printed / borrowed money that was thrown about and little archived. Now we have very few houses being built and a shortage so it's a wait and see game to what National will do to fix this issue.

[@raza.m]

For me, in a micro level, hope governments could fix this but macroeconomic factors are hard to ignore.

[@RJ-ry5qu]

Non tradeables inflation rate isn’t coming down. So you should be pointing that out

[@edmcknight1375]

That's true. Non-tradeables inflation i still higher than imported inflation. And the Reserve Bank certainly keeps an eye on that. But it should also be pointed out that they don't have a target for domestic (non-tradables) inflation. If imported inflation is low and domestic inflation is high, the Reserve Bank can still meet its target. In fact, domestic inflation is often a few percentage points higher than international inflation. I could definitely have talked a lot more about that. But, I'll save it for another video, as I like to keep these property market videos short.

[@andymc1110]

Interest rates are obviously key. But to a lesser extent number of listing's and job layoffs.

[@edmcknight1375]

That's true. I am expecting listings to go up a bit this year. When the Bright Line changes, somewhere between 75,000 - 100,000 investors can sell their properties without having to pay tax. Some of them will take up the opportunity.
I saw some good comments out of Westpac that said that if interest rates were low, house prices could go up 20 - 25% because of net migration. But that house price inflation gets slowed significantly because of interest rates.

[@geraldperyman6535]

What in blazes is good about high house prices,its just a symptom of a shortage!?

[@robertsmith-lv4fm]

We are about to see double digit interest rates, just like the 1980s . The market has to crash as it is at the ceiling , there is no room for growth.
How low can it go ?

[@mareavoce1272]

What data are you looking at??! 🤔

[@geoffmckeown2236]

Hardly an impartial and objective report from a company that developers and sells properties

[@edmcknight1375]

Hey Geoff, that's right. We do make money by helping people buy properties. My question for you is: what part of the analysis do you disagree with? Happy to have a discussion about what we got wrong. But pointing out how we make money doesn't invalidate the analysis :)

[@geoffmckeown2236]

@@edmcknight1375 did you mention there are two more rate rises forecast by the RB and that a 1/6 earnings ratio will be introduced by them that will keep most of the first home buyers out of the market

[@timwilliam9855]

​@@edmcknight1375 how have your predictions fared? would you consider any changes?

[@davidboyd8113]

When you put food and energy into the equation with inflation which they don’t do you’ll find inflation is round nine or 10%

[@motorbikeadventuresnewzeal1404]

The cheaper the housing is for people the more money they can put back into the nz market
We are destroying our market and country with high house prices if I can buy a house for 300,000 look how much more money I can put back into the newzealand market the country would be better off
And also get rid of auctions for housing that’s also the problem

[@isstechnz1021]

Very interesting.
I CALLED Sunshine Homes that build homes and transport them to your section or life style block.
$ 250.K for the finished house plus 50K to it to get to my site plus costs to prepare site and connections.
So figure out the drit it sits on is around 800 k so do I need to get insurance cover for the land as its worth more then the basic home.
Madness.
Have not found any gold oil deposits on my land but is priced like gold.

[@davey6907]

Good impartial report Ed

[@robertsmith-lv4fm]

Wages are not going to increase, they will shrink, lots of property owners will go broke. Only the freehold property will be safe .
It’s already to late to get out of the the market without a huge loss

[@kahakohu97]

Yes, why i dont use banks.

[@jeremiahbullfrog9996]

With all due respects Ed, I have been a property investor in the USA (last property 2020) and my range of gross return was 12-15% pa. 8% is the bare minimum IMHO
I just don't get the NZ (especially Auckland) residential property investment "ponzi scheme" market and especially without any capital gains. Everyone I listen to is just pushing their own wheelbarrow - to suit their "own" agenda.

[@motorbikeadventuresnewzeal1404]

The cost of living is high now and with the rise of prices of housing keeps going up the problem is just going to get worse
If anything the housing must come down to solve the problem of the cost of living

[@beneustace5682]

Horrific forecast looking back only 3 weeks.

[@danlizard7103]

House price news:-
-100k+ net new arrivals but don’t mention that as a contributor to the sky high prices.
-Complex to change mortgage providers.
-Badly built and designed houses crammed in like sardines.
-New apartment complexes going everywhere as we know a house with a garden isn’t the kiwi dream.
-Rent seeking (literally) landlord boomers who don’t invest in upkeep
-Body Corps who are out of control
-Cold, damp….close the door. You’re letting the heat out….though let’s pretend this place is the tropics.

[@karenbolton9526]

Renting beachfront and saving made 50000 this year. Cash is king

[@charlesh3751]

Supply and demand, build more houses !!

[@swiperadministration7852]

Over 5 yrs interest will go up nominal prices flat or down equity value in real terms down. Population likely down also over 5yrs.

[@waynethorpe1341]

Ask the FED ?

[@veekakaria6623]

How is Hamilton ?

[@motorbikeadventuresnewzeal1404]

For a single person I’m fucked

[@adubbya1776]

How many people are trapped in toxic and loveless relationships due to mortgages I wonder?

[@edmcknight1375]

Na mate, chin up. I believe you can do it.

[@robertsmith-lv4fm]

Rubbish, trying to talk the market up.
The global market is going to crash, not enough new home buyers in the market to hold prices up.

[@robertsmith-lv4fm]

A house is a thief , it takes all your money, and is about too go to new lows

[@anarugormann4337]

What's your sir name

[@MG-fr3tn]

Emigration of the educated is threw the roof.😅

[@MG-fr3tn]

Hay lets screw the potental of the country according to every proffesonal body regaurding economic prosperity on the planet.
Povity the real earner.
Education.work.investment.skills
Try motive .😂

[@robertsmith-lv4fm]

So much propaganda

[@dildobaggins8468]

I don’t let speculation determine the price of my home, if you aren’t willing to pay then try finding a better offering, meanwhile the longer I refuse to sell at someone’s “expectation” the more expensive it will be when you finally wake up.😂😆👍

[@yusefs2321]

Dead cat bounce