Lumber Prices Are About to Get Wild! How What is Going on at Lumber Mills is Impacting Prices.
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- Опубліковано 11 вер 2024
- Lumber prices have been relatively low and stable for the past few years but things are changing and the stage is now set for huge lumber prices if conditions are right. In this video I explain how mill closures are impacting the capacity of the lumber market and how that could lead to huge price spikes in the future.
#lumber #lumberprices #woodworking
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Im a logger, lumber isn't selling, we are laying off at the mills and canceling logging contracts
Thanks for the information
@@fishhead7704 proof?? Maybe the rich should pay more in taxes than I do! Who gave them huge tax breaks? Corporations are price gouging and won't stop unless they are made to stop
For loggers things will return but the industry will change
You will sell more to manufactured housing, who will run their own mills
Big box stores will loose, places such as 84 lumber will survive on the existing home expansion business as Americans consolidate into Generational properties.
The McMansion party is over in America
That would mean $5 now is $1 a few years ago. Its not that bad@@fishhead7704
How is this happening?
The government and news tells us it's the bestest economy ever.
I have another prediction and nobody is going to like it. When interest rates go back down, there will be more institutional and boutique investors who will outbid first time home buyers and hoard more properties than ever in their mission to turn this into a nation of renters. Not because those investors need to get a home loan but because with lower interest rates renting homes will be more lucrative than other investments.
You mean Black Rock investments and all those stupid assholes who invest and run it ?
Artificially cheap money driving malinvestment.
Not a fan of the prediction, but it makes sense.
And then interest rates will rapidly rise wiping all these people out of home ownership.
Blackrock owns 40 % of American houses.
I’ve been framing for the same builder for 13 years. Recently, their prices more than doubled. What was a $650k home last year is going for $1.5 million now. I really don’t think people will accept that. What I do know for sure is I’m not getting paid anymore than 5 years ago.
@@Pro-ez9eb a million dollar home is nothing special anymore. It’s a shame
That is called greed
3% inflation 😂
The more money that gets printed, the less value the dollar has. It’s not that everything is more expensive, it’s the value of the dollar is tanking. Buy PM.
same... electrical... they're going to HAVE to , im ALWAYS lookin to move to another contractor, been with 4 in 4 yrs, each one paid more than the last, 13yrs?! ... they abusin you.. smFh
I predict the price of tents will go up and the supply go down as more and more folks become homeless
AIn't capitalism great !!
People are buying tents en mass up in Canada knowing all the immigrants coming here need a tent to live in.
@@afriendtoo6971 When you are so incredibly foolish to believe that it is anything other than our current Pres. Admin. of Liberalism then you are far too ignorant (and worse) to speak with any degree of reliability or accuracy.
Plus , George Soros is buying a lot of ⛺️ tents for the University College protesters this school year coming. Please don't throw those tents away , you'll need them to live in when you graduate with a degree in gender identity.
I'm investing in the finest quality of camping equipment.
So when I become homeless, I'll be like the leper with the most fingers.
I live in Canada. When lumber prices went down, home prices still went up. When costs go up, the end price goes up. As long as people are buying houses, the prices will go up no matter what the lumber price is.
Simply put, the cost of lumber has little to do with the price of existing housing! It is all supply and demand along with outrageous sales charges. The cost of selling a home has in no way risen as fast as prices. And selling is easier with video tools and the internet. This garbage of 5-6% commission is insane! Think more like 1-2%!
@Tman76 there is also the huge issue of hazard and flood insurance.
I run a small portable sawmill business, folks around me have logs so I turn them into usable lumber, for a reduced price . Win, win, win.
@heyyoubuddy6749 we just purchased a portable sawmill. My daughter is looking into classes so she can certify said lumber once cut
@@lulajohns1883that's the trick ...it's got to be certified to be used as structural lumber....like framing. Siding doesn't generally require certification
I want that in my life.
I am in Colorado and recently a business org. held a meeting where a home builder said they nearly 50% of the cost of a 350K home is regulatory. fees, permits, land etc. But the myth of affordable housing presists.
Where I live lumber is pure garbage. Lowe’s and Home Depot have the absolute worst. When you look at prices vs. quality it’s ridiculous. We were told at a Home Depot that we had to buy lumber from the top of the stack and we could not cull anything out. So, we buy crooked lumber with knots everywhere and twists too. I don’t know about you but I want what I pay for. Nothing more and nothing less. When paying the insane price shouldn’t it be decent quality?
return the bad ones
Shop at a local independent lumber yard. Support your local community
@@cherylinoklahoma9624that would be great, but hechinger then lowes and home depot killed them. The few that are still around are specialty selling stupid expensive furniture grade or only want to sell tractor trailer loads.
@@cherylinoklahoma9624 My local lumber yard has crap too. I was pretty disappointed
Agree completely with the quality and price issues at the Big Box stores. Fortunately, I found a local saw mill and now use it as my source for lumber. I may have to mill it myself to sizes I want but despite the time it takes to do that, I’m getting a higher quality and quantity of lumber for a fraction of the cost. See if you can find the same in your locale. It’s well worth it.
In Montana, Mills are closing because cost of living is too high for the workers who can't afford housing
There is definitely housing crisis in America and it started after the 2009 crash as the big hedge funds bought up thousands of homes and apartments. They are like locust who go in and strip an industry for profit
...by design. We will own nothing. And we (better) be happy.
@@joeschmo9953 we will own everything and jews will own nothing.
We have never owned a home or land! Taxes permit the goverment to take when not paid. So lets increase taxes and aquire more to control the people.
@@joeschmo9953 not by design. Misinformation.
I just deconstructed a 16 by 12 shed for free from a guy cause I got all the material. So I've got it stored in my shed now and I bought a lot for 500 bucks with an old church on it built in 1949 and I'll be deconstructing that for the old lumber. :) I'll be holding on to that old lumber too.
Recycling at its best!
Smart!
1949... Better quality too...
If you get too much lumber, you will have to build another shed to store it, but after you get it built, will you still need it?😊😊
@@ripvanrevs lol... Good point... But the perfect place to store lumber is IN the building itself... Use screws, not nails and harvest what you need as you need it...
The prices are too high so people don't buy. People dont buy the mill wood is not needed, mill not needed they close. They close, not as much wood so prices go up. As you see, prices will continue to go up as they create the shortage!
Not really, they close because the demands goes down, supply and demand get evened out in the process as some mills close so prices level to a near neutral or normal levels. If demand goes down along with supply prices stay stable, it takes some time for this to happen but capitalism and the free market will keep prices at a normal level if not interfered with by things like government regulations.
@@phillhuddleston9445 Free markets? :p
Almost as if it was designed to happen 🤔😏
@@phillhuddleston9445 If I have it and you are the only one that has it (close the mills) you don't have to lower your cost or price as if I cant get it elseware you will not lower the price, you will get what you want by supply and demand. Most stores buy things and double the price to sell it to you. They could lower the price but dont. Look at the companies that are making billions and the ceo are making millions and they say they have to send the work out of the states as they cannot make enough.
@@maxi-me "Get back in your cage you"
On top of Dave's points, remember, his $450/mbf ( thousand board feet) F.O.B at the sawmill is 1) Truckload quantities, 2) typically #2 construction grade and better, and 3) does not include delivery...and as a rule of thumb, figure those flatbed get about 5 miles per gallon.
Drill baby drill!
@@FireManTTSOMthey are it’s the highest ever.
The Fed is lowering rates because it sees a recession coming. A global recession like in 2008. Actually a continuation of the 2008 crisis. So I'm afraid you must factor in a lot more bankruptcies and increased unemployment and therefore even less demand
Gas, energy, and Food cost has taken all extra cash. Lumber is not even on my radar
Then why waste your time even looking at a vid like this? Strange.
@@johnnynick6179 because I was board
Harris Biden economy
*Democrats.*
Why watch this then genius?! LOL!
UA-cam so wild. First went from watching fed chair meeting notes, talking about consolidation of everything, deflation, then see videos about lumber mills closing, and production of lumber slowing, now a video of high lumber prices, all in reccommended feed.
It's all BS content to get views cause these mediocre UA-camrs are trying real hard to make money from UA-cam
Big tech censoring factual content and manipulating the surfs ... that's just crazy talk...lol. This is America and we have a constitution that guarantees free speech... oh, wait...
@@RoseanneSeason7the MSM is bs content also.
Stress lol but don't forget your raycon ear buds or some dumb game like raid shadow legends
You are foreign obviously and do not understand is all. Either you are foreign or you cannot type and just make yourself sound ignorant because of your "deliteracy." lol!
No dude. Theree is no way the housing bubble will burst yet, and when it eventually does all the young people waiting to buy a home will be too broke to buy a pizza. The demand for lumber for trash fires may go up next winter tho
Agreeing. 2008 was caused because banks were lending tp people who couldn't afford the house they were buying. Today it's people like my son who bought just as interest rates started up. Now he won't sell or trade up because interest. There's no bubble right now.
@@donphillips5957 -- that remains to be seen as more people lose their primary income and/or realize their "interest only" or balloon rates are causing them to spend good after bad.
The government and the banks have created one disaster after another...
I’m 75 and was a realtor for 35 years. Continuously doomsday sayers have predicted a housing bubble burst. The only one in my life time was after Reagan deregulated banks and even furniture was rolled into the mortgage and interest was incredibly high. Even that horrible time was short lived. Real estate like all markets has ups and downs but always bottoms higher than it started. Like the stock market.
The challenge with analyzing the effect of any single variable like interest rates is that they don't change in a vacuum. That's what people miss can talking about interest rates going down. And by "people" I mean everyone from this guy (sorta) to some CNBC talking heads. Interest rates would go down significantly if we have a recession and spiking unemployment. If people are out of work and the economy is terrible, they will have a hard time affording mortgage payments, even as reduced rates lower them some. So factor in reduced demand for homes and falling wages into the analysis above and you might get mills doing ok on stable prices and reduced labor costs. Then start adding other factors; i.e. shuttering coal plants will start drastically increasing limestone and gypsum costs over the next few years, so concrete and sheetrock spike, so predict that we will start using proportionately more wood and prices spike again
You can keep adding more factors and the answer will keep changing. This is why real economists answer "it depends" to nearly every question. Paid political "economists" are certain, because they knew the answer they wanted from the start.
I bought a Woodmiser to feed my consrtruction habit. Very rewarding.
I have 119.18 acres of forest. Mostly Coastal Redwood, Fir, & Oak. Want to trade some forest for your construction habit? Sure could use a good carpenter in this forest of mine.
@@paradise6606 Mendocino County,?
@@chrisbrowne4669 Yes! Elk.
@@chrisbrowne4669 Yes! Elk.
built a chainsaw mill for 30 bucks, 5 acres is supplying plenty of raw materials.
North Carolina is going crazy with building right now. We are trying to keep up with the influx of those moving down from the North. Homes, apartments, condos are being built at alarming rates. A company called "Rent at Redwoods" has cleared off a full lot of trees, leveled off the property, and has put in homes to rent. A golf course in Hickory sold out and homes and condos will be going in. It's just crazy!
I can confirm this observation. NC is not in a recession.......yet. Existing homes on the Pamlico River and Sound sale fast when they hit the market and prices do not appear to be issue.
That is crazy. I am seeing the same things here in Texas.
I live in NC and things are booming here. NC is #2 or #3 in business relocation and with that comes population influx. All my neighbors are from the northeast.
Location, location, location. If you had our weather, economy and anti-manufacturing/natural resource harvest governor, you would move out of NY too.
@@kenthorn7322 The US isn't in a recession and is nowhere close to one. Vote SMART, vote BLUE...
I work at a sawmill. They have cut our hours until the last few weeks and all of a sudden we are working about seventy a week. We were at about 55 before. Im not complaining. The next paycheck will be a nice one. I also pay attention to lumber prices and have noticed that about $500 per thousand board feet is when we get more or less hours, depending on if the price is above or below that point.
I build multi million dollar houses on a golf course and all I know is that that cost of owning a house for the average Joe isn't going anywhere near affordable anytime soon.
Yup. Middle class is being decimated.
Wait until these start seizing your homes and giving it migrants like they just started idling in the UK.
i was making 10 grand a year in 1983 and gas was like 90 cents a gallon......i still couldnt afford a house because back then they wanted 30% down......that was like 15 grand or more......i couldnt save that kind of money......most of my friends i know who owned a home were given the down payment from their parents......today most kids dont have that old money to help them but some do
@@joeschmo9953 .....ive been hearing that for 50 years......today its just a tad worse
Vote RFK jr.
The only candidate focusing on this issue
I haul treated lumber out of a treatment plant in Arkansas and pick up white or untreated lumber and bring it to the treatment plant. I was told that lumber is about to take a dive so we will be picking up more lumber instead of coming straight back to the plant. It's just goid sense to buy when it's low and hild when it's high.
These mills got used to the high past prices. They want to get that back!
They will quit buying logs to create a shortage. AGAIN!
$60 for a sheet of plywood. I hope not but I know you are right. Sad times
@@SkidderoperatorThat's how you think, not how they think. They are just running their business in response to market demand. They aren't trying to make a market.
@@georgesealy4706 They did it before! They will again.
The price received by the mills is the same as 6 years ago. Has the cost of production for mills remained the same as 6 years ago, or has it increased 30 percent?
Have a small portable sawmill and that is the only thing that keeps me going right now. Then have many that want that tree that fell on their property converted to lumber for projects. It isn't cheap to do this work yourself, or for someone, people don't grasp how hard work this actually is and upkeep on the equipment. Until the government gets out of the lumber business things are going to cost a fortune.
Trees in people's yards usually loaded with nails from bird feeders, clothes lines, etc. eat blades.
My dad has a woodmizer saw mill from the 90's and it works pretty well. He has cut up a lot of trees for people and himself. Black walnut, red oak and pine. We had a bunch of white oak fall during a storm a few years ago and people paid good money to have those trees cut into lumber. Yes, it's very hard work and the blades aren't cheap, even if you turn and sharpen them yourself.
@@Brett235 Agree with you 100%, most people wouldn't take this route even if they had the equipment and knowledge to do so. It is hard work, some people ask me why at 71 do I do things like this as it is not that easy. However looking at others at the same age, and often quite a bit younger with absolutely dismal health, and no work ethic the answer to me is quite clear. Oh, by the way am retired military, college educated and skilled labor. I don't buy something, often I build it.
@@thomasheer825I'm 62 but I feel just like you.. I think it's too late. Three (or 4) generations of dumbing it all down.. it's too late sir...
@thomasheer825, how expensive is it do quarter sawing?
$25k from Kamala and I predict the price of houses will go up $25K.
Yep
Will go up 30k
Double that
So we all agree Builders are gouging us!
Noooooo! A vote for commie Kamala and tampon Tim will be a wrecking ball to the economy! Peter Shift and other ecomoney watchers are predicting a huge depression because of out of control government spending so we shall see.
Logging and lumber prices have been doing this for 50 years.Up and down,I have lived it my whole life
I agree with you. This is all normal. What I do wonder about is will the forest service continue to allow timber sales? I see many mills closing thier doors for good. This is happening in our area and next they are crying that the forests are no longer sustainable? Which is a complete lie. It's just a way to continue tanking the forestry markets as a whole in the country.
I grew up in the PNW. Logging and lumber mills were the primary industry in many towns 50 years ago. That industry is gone in most of those towns now. Market fluctuations are different than the means of production disappearing. There are no mills left to restart production to meet demand.
Yes and my parents lost a lot many years ago,when the lumber company went bankrupt,and my dad never got paid for all his winter 's hard physical work, away from his home and wife
@chiplangowski3298 Exactly my point. I've noticed lately 4 other mills have closed on the west coast according to the news? I'm afraid this is a sign of what's to come? We are loosing our national ability to produce anything at all. And we have very few young people coming into the job markets with zero trade skills.
@SuperReznative That is terrible. Nobody cares about small businesses and small operators. I'm one of them myself. People need to start talking to their local city, county and state officials to you the 10th amendment to oust these federal officials
We have been in a recession for almost a year, sh!t is already hitting the fan w/ mortgage delinquency and vehicle repos. The fed may eventually drop rates but there are a surplus of houses sitting on the market for 180+ days and sellers are now dropping prices. Many home buyers will buy an older home that they can negotiate the price on and truthfully folks are so broke now, i dont forsee a rush of home buyers when the interest rates drop a few points. There will continue to be institutional & corporate buyers buying up larger amounts of the housing and most folks will be forced to rent. The mills have dramatically slashed production, some have shut down, some only running 1 shift. They are hoping that dropping interest rates will.stimulate demand and w/ diminished supply, the price of lumber will rise. This being said, i dont think we will ever see prices around $1400 per thousand like we saw during covid. This country is in big trouble, the america way is to perpetually live in debt and way our means and its finally catching up w/ us. Potentially you will see the stock.market and real estate market loose 1/3 of its value, the middle class is being wipped out and many folks are barely going to be able to afford rent, let alone buy a house.
There are forces behind the scenes that keep the markets going. There has been so much leveraged money keeping things propped up for so long. The big questions is which one of the props will break first. Maybe the Fed can keep the system intact and fool us all.
Result: We are then left with a meandering economy that devolves into relative worseness for most of the populace. At minimum you will see a decline in the standard of living. A black swan event will bring the frailties to the forefront and perhaps a collapse of the economy.
Yes, let's make sure we put trump in office again so our lumber corporations can get another big tax cut, right folks!!
I was selling timber @ $750 in 2017, $1100 in 2018. The market goes up and down. I think it’s around $450 right now in western Oregon and I don’t see that rising anytime soon. Weyerhaueser doesn’t have to play by the rule this gentleman mentions as they are the largest land holder in the US I believe. They grow their own inventory. Other components are big cost issues for them like trucking, labor, and taxes.
im 64 years old......same old same old......prices go up then go down......i worked at a lot of places back in the 80's, and everywhere i worked closed for good......the world is still going
ok boomer the 100 years of fiat thievery by the central banks is literally causing western peoples to go extinct in their own nations.
Still going huh, how many invaders did you have to compete with to get a job or home. Was the Gooberment giving invaders money to OUT BID YOU
NO.
Apathetic folks like yourself keep kicking the can down the road to screw over the next generation.
Somebody has to work. We can't all live on welfare...
Tell that to corporation when A.I. takes over of their doings
I just cleared out in June 7 acres of land loaded with paper company pine trees. I asked "How much will you pay me for the trees?" The timberman replied, "Haha, no sir. These are differen times. I'm going to charge for your hauling them off." Sorry, I don't believe that prices are going up any time soon.
Could be the timber cutters/brokers are not seeing the profits. The guy raising beef cattle on our property said the high prices are not being seen at on-the-hoof auctions
A single pine tree, approximately 1 foot (0.3 meters) in diameter and 60 feet (18.3 meters) tall, can produce about 80,500 sheets of paper. The wood from a pine tree becomes pulp with a yield of about 50 percent, due to the removal of knots, lignin and other unusable parts.
Trees for Paper like Pine are shredded and only give half back..
Trees for building Houses is Totally different.
@@overallgreatidea6433The ranchers are getting shafted! The beef industry is another beast that needs to be broken up.
@@mmmd3429 good pun
Price of fuel goes up everything goes up old saying if you got it a truck brought it effects everything from food to everything in life glad I own my home 😊 6:57
The pricing of lumber just to remodel or add an additiol is still too high. I couldn't imagine new construction.
A lot of the wood nowadays is junk. I would go with metal studs for new construction ... ( Retired carpenter )
Houses will cost more when the rate goes down. They cost too much now when the rate is way too high!
Loss of employment during the next downturn will make housing even more unaffordable. Thus I think housing prices in today's dollars will have to drift downward. Employment is the key driver, even after interest rates and fuel costs etc. If you don't have a job, you don't qualify for a loan, even if interest rates are low. Naturally, all cash buyers and venture capital firms will bid lower prices for those homes, but even renter demand may cool with all the excess multiunit housing that has been built over the last several years. It's a mess for sure.
Actually, the rate is pretty close to where it should be...
1:00 Lumber companies can only make money if they sell their product for less than it costs to produce it.
Lol... you have an idea, you write it up, you record it; then, spend hours editing it just to make a silly mistake like this and never notice it 🤦♂️. Hopefully, you know what I meant.
@@DIYwithDave* I've bin there. We enjoyed the surprise 😮
Wonderful business model 😉
@@DIYwithDave Naw, your work is clear Dave, Chrystal clear. Don’t change a thing because I only got through the 9th grade so I need things to come my way, real slow!
Yes, I had to replay that. Thought I was hearing things! Honest mistake, We're all human!
It is not just lumber mill employees losing jobs. A lot of other people are also doing so for different reasons, or they are finding it difficult to make ends meet. This factor could possibly reduce the demand for lumber, which means that prices might not go wild.
Incomes going for gas and groceries then home improvement projects get put off.
The only reason interest rates will go down this year is because it’s an election year.
No matter who becomes Pres., interest rates will go down
Wrong. The Fed is following its policy and the factors for lowering the rate - inputs such as unemployment, CPI and raw inflation - have all corrected to points where they are back "within limits". The street has confirmed this view with mostly solid earnings while prices are being pressed downward. Has little, or nothing, to do with the election cycle....though the economy often goes into a "wait and see" scenario 6 months prior to each presidential cycle. Market and the street price that in.
But, but, Scamala is gonna fix everything one day 1!! She just can't do it before then...
@@cdawg9149 disagree with your assumption. the feds want to lower interest rates to help get kamala elected. they wil go down and stay down if Trump gets elected. if Harris gets elected nterest rates will jump back up
@@disorderlymovement
Now who out there didnt see a drop in interest rates right before the election. Solid earnings? Home Depot , Car manufacturers , eatin it. Inflation in all other sectors thru the roof. Buy food lately? Your damn right interest rate drop a political move. Interest rates should rising , not falling. Fed never let the ten yr bond yield go above 5%. They know if it did we would see a deflationary cycle . They wont let that happen.
A lot of the mills that closed there doors were pop-up mills that jumped in the crazy market. Some may have been outdated mills that refuse to modernize due to mindset or lack of capital. This is why free market works. I'm leaning toward lumber prices staying stagnant until post election. You did a great job on this.
I work at a GP lumber mill we just got news that we will no longer run logs and only run studs. Displacing 106 jobs. Really devastating news but fortunately we are employed by a juggernaut company and they are trying to find us all jobs within the organization.
I'm sorry to hear that. But what does it mean to only run studs and not logs?
@@DIYwithDave No more 2x4 or 2x6. We will only run 4x4s. The higher ups explained that this will still be profitable for the company but only if we displace those 106 jobs.
Lumber prices are still crazy high today! They haven’t come down at all post pandemic!!!
lumber has come down significantly a 2 x 4 during the pandemic was pushing five or six bucks currently at Menards it’s $3.25. Osb is significantly down to so I’m not sure where you’re buying your lumber but lumber is down. I’m in the pallet business my customers are paying Covid prices now and I’m finally making good money.
"They can only make money if they can sell lumber for less than the cost to produce it?" Did Dave miss speak here? Selling any product for less than the cost to produce it would mean the supplier is losing money with each sale. Sell anything for less than the cost to product it mean bankruptcy.
Yes, i am sure that was a misspeak
Sometimes you have to take a loss.Itsva write off on the taxes.
Yes, he said that....but he's also heavily speculating based on his own biases. He hasn't really said anything insightful.
@@shannonharris2602 Tax write offs do not turn it into a profit.
there not losses either.
The interest rate would have to come down a lot to make houses affordable. Until prices come down there’s not going to be much change.
I am sitting on several hundreds of sheets of 1/2" thru 3/4" cabinet grate plywood in all different species. I am going to sell for $30.00 per sheet. Maybe I should hold.
If you were anywhere near a half tank of fuel, I would definitely buy ten sheets at thirty bucks a sheet. Check out what the box store is getting for junk ply! 😮 😢 😂 😅 😊
Price of sheet goods never came down from the pandemic spike.
Sounds like it's best to stock up on Lumber in cooler seasons.
Then you're paying to store the material.
@@hanelyp1 Unless you have a shed or crawlspace you can store it.
It drys up and warps,
@@squidreuel not really it depends on how you store it. Brace it and cover it, and it'll keep for at least 2 years or better. What do you think hardware stores do, in fact, they have whole lumberyards out back in the elements year round.
There is a whole lumber reseller industry that do just that.
Producers can't stay in business with a .45 per board foot average.
Can't run skidders, loaders, semi's, and all the legal costs on that.
they need to get SMALLER and stop giving all the profit to the govt
I just need a pasture fence and 4x4 treated posts used to be five bucks now they’re 15$.
I grew up in a small lumber town with 4 different lumber mills. A railroad transported finished lumber to transport ships where it was sold overseas. That was 35 years ago. From what my brother has told me, today's lumber industry needs events that international demands for lumber to survive inflation.
After 40+ years in the construction industry as a commercial/industrial business owner, I have watched as many, many, Many, “experts” have made absolute statements about market movements and outcomes. What I find and found interesting is how many who customarily were guided by wisdom, such as “wait and see,” end up desperately pilling on with the absolutist. And then the “Black Swan” shows up while the vast majority are in a trance. Having not made any wise preparation because of buying into the absolutist’s beliefs.
I certainly spent time observing and trying to understand the larger makets and then applying what I learn to local and regional markets, and believe this effort to be wise. I also understand the tendency of western culture to “doom scroll.” When fear is the guiding lens one cannot apply or see wisdom. After so many years of watching markets rise, fall, move sideways and become stagnant, I refer back to your comment of “watch and see.” This is certainly difficult to do as media in general triggers people’s doom reactions rather than moving them to search out wisdom.
I point to nothing being wrong or right. Your observations are, in my experience, wise observations. Just because they are wise, does not mean that they are true or will come true. This is where I found myself getting hooked in my younger years as an entrepreneur. Now, I listen to observations that apply logic and a splash of wisdom and I go, “hmmmmm…, interesting perspective. And when I don’t feel like Flow is telling me to do something, I shift to “wait and see.” Wait and see is not passive, but a wise Knowing that there is nothing to do right now. To do something out of fear would be akin to pushing a rope. It may feel as though you are doing something, but in the end, it’s a frivolous effort.
I enjoyed your graphs and the way you parsed things out. I no longer find myself in the marketplace, so my perspective is a bit different. As I look back over my career I am better able to spot the difference in my fear reactions and wisdom. It’s not easy to see these differences but with a bit of silence and presence along with not doom scrolling, wisdom will appear and those who are to See it, will See it.
Good work.
Namaste
Log prices have not gone up at all, in fact they have gone down some. The mills raw material is cheaper, energy costs up for sure, but most mills burn their scrap and are near neutral. Labor costs are a small fraction of overall mill costs.
Some mills make payroll by selling chipped wood scraps.
Yup. California has so much post-fire salvage lumber and forests still needing thinning that the USFS can’t even give it away to SPI because SPI can’t even get through its own supply. There are log graveyards out in Carson City. What we need is business model innovation, both from timber companies and home builders.
@@jraiderguy Huge amount of burned, tall timber standing for years in Oregon too.
American govt just massively increased tarif on Canadian SPF , American consumer will pay. Kaching.
I heard the tariff on Canadian wood almost doubled. Which the house buyer will have to pay.
@@MB-xe8bb correct, I guess democrats don't shout a out their policies that jack up housing costs, try to keep it quiet.
When people quit building, the prices will go down. I see no slowdown in new homes. They are everywhere
LOL. I'm in a suburb of a "cheap" city with a booming tech market. Legit $150k houses are selling for $750k now, and there are hundreds of toothpick pop-up housing developments half completed and abandoned around the city because of bankruptcy. The median home price in the entire metro area is $380k, and even with a 10% down payment with current interest rates that's $2200/month, before you include the $2500/yr for insurance and $4800/yr for taxes. You're talking $3000/month mortgage payment. At minimum, you should be making $120,000/year for that kind of payment, and I can count on one hand the number of tech jobs in this city that pay that much for entry level work.
Thanks for this very useful information. Given increasing long term pressure on lumber prices, alternative building materials, fabrications, methods will get a spur, things like concrete soil, form and foam, large foam plastic building blocks, etc.
So the video is titled lumber prices are about to get wild, but you end with it is just a time to wait and see. Interesting. Sounds like click bait to me.
I think that consumers are worn out by inflation and have stopped spending on extras. New cars are overflowing lots while used cars are flying off the lots due to their lower pricing. Pre-existing housing prices are cratering in Florida and other large markets as there's no money in consumer's pockets......let alone new construction. SO IMO the lumber market is going to be seeing record high levels of inventory and prices will plummet. I don't think Fed cuts will help much at all and I think we're in for a sustained decrease in demand. Things are only picking up steam in the downward trends.
I agree
Although the market has flattened out over the last year, FL prices are not “cratering”. Not yet anyway.
lots of lumber mills are closing in Oregon this summer.
That's what I have seen.
Sheet goods prices haven't moved much, though. 😮💨
Sheet goods prices are disgusting. What used to be $50 is now close to $200. :(
Nor have hardwoods. White oak prices are insane.
@@HansKim-gh5di UA-camrs throw Baltic Birch around like it's free. It *IS* $200/sheet, if you can find it.
They call them "scraps". I save what are effectively scraps, of their scraps except, instead of BB, it's un/sanded ply.
Do you realize that you said lumber companies "only make money when they sell for LESS than what is cost to produce it"
I supply logs to mills in South Georgia prices for the raw logs has not risen enough to cover production cost. Won’t last much longer.
Diesel is the major single factor.
I don't see rates ever going back to the 2-3s percent that we saw for most of the last decade. That was artificially set too low, for too long, and resulted in the mess we have now. I don't see that happening again. At least I hope the Fed learned a lesson. It might drop to 5%, but probably not for a while. Remember, the historical mortgage rate was 8%, spiking to 18% in the 80s (with inflation running 10% and more). The same thing happened then. Reagan and Volker got it back down to the historical average of 8%
I'm scared the fed is that stupid and politically driven. Give the economy a shot of meth for the election, let inflation destroy the economy.
energy was pretty much free back then and gov regulations were low, its a whole new beast now! look what happened to rome...
@@kimstocks4485 I'm not sure what that has to do with the price of oats in China, but energy was most assuredly NOT "pretty much free back then".
I always thought the extreme low interest rates totally decimated the housing market too. They made prices and demand go through the roof. Back in the 70 and 80s if you paid 8% that was considered a fair rate. When rates got down to 6% in 2006 it was time to refinance. Then the recession of 08 the fed went unprecedented and lowered rates to less than 2%. This was good for businesses to hire and expand and eventually brought us to full employment but also set the housing market on fire. Some of this could have been avoided if the fed had stuck to its guns and gradually kept raising rates back up in 2018 but Trump pressured the fed to lower rates back down even though the economy was growing.
@@fredparsons5134 Right, except the President doesn't have any power over the Fed. The only power he has is the appointment of the chairman. Jamet Yellen was an Obama appointee, who ran four years of the debacle. Trump appointed Jay Powel who kept the same policies.
Not only are the prices too high, compared to the past, the quality is pathetic at best.
I have to inspect 100 boards to find 2 that are usable.
Also, a 2x4 use to be 2x4. Now, they are 1.75x3.5 meaning that as supports, they are weaker.
I could go on, but every carpenter and builder will have already noticed anything I would mention.
Good point.
Housing lumber is usually softwoods. How do hardwood prices track housing? Furniture makers may follow housing somewhat, but not all furniture goes into new homes.
Plywood is generally hardwood faced. They spin veneer hardwoods like birch and maple on the outer layers.
@@evilmac9623Not in the west.
@@evilmac9623You can get that. But plywood is primarily pine faced here.
@@billykarnes6035 That is interesting, I sold birch to Rutland plywood for decades before they closed. I just assumed everyone used hardwood plywood for building.
@@evilmac9623 Almost all construction grade sheathing in western US is faced with Fir, CDX grade (and some higher end sanded ply, BCX ACX grade). You can tell by the red-orange/pinkish large wood grain pattern. HD does sell a radiata pine plywood that is coming from South America.
Best video and explanation EVER. Thank you
Just a note, there isnt a 1:1 with the fed funds rate and the interest rates on mortgages. Mortgages track the 10 year much closer, so I wouldn't anticipate seeing an immediate change in rates.
American consumers are looking for affordable lumber prices, not a list of reasons why lumber prices may climb higher.
Sometimes reality doesn't cooperate with your expectations
@@rayzimmerman2242 Buy your own mill. 3 grand will do it.
I think what this guy is trying to say is lumber prices are really affordable right now. And if you want to take advantage of that that's great if not hold on to shorts.
Lol he's been saying this for over a year now
You really should pay attention in public school
What you don’t take into consideration in your analysis is that mills that have modernized produce significant more board feet thus fewer mills are needed. This is true in most all modern industry and the lumber industry was long overdue for modernization thus the sweeping changes over the past few years. Not only they produce more they do it with far less labor. Enough of the “sky is falling” you have been saying for the past several years.
It takes more than a few years for the sky to fall.
I have been building for 40 years. The last 16 months has been the worst I have seen in my career.
100 year old brick and Lumber yards are shutting down all around me.
Home depot will be our only choice when this is over.
They produce more lower quality product would be an apt statement...
I needed to build a small cabinet, and went to Home Depot to buy the wood. Wow. The prices (for me) are just outrageous. So, what did I do? I went on Marketplace, found someone local that had exactly what I needed, for pennies on the dollar. The cabinet came out perfect.
Lumber prices have definitely come down, but they're not "cheap" by any means; even worse with something like a 3/4" sheet of birch plywood - but I'm in Utah, where a decent lumber mill is a days drive away.
No mention of the fact that the US recently announced an increase in the tariff on Canadian lumber going to the US of more than 7%.
Hello Dave
Recently the USA just imposed another substantial softwood lumber tariff on Canadian lumber heading to the United States. This is a terrible blow to the already hard hit lumber producers. I don't understand the politics of this wood going across the border because the USA is saying we are dumping cheap lumber on their market.
Isn't this just driving up costs for our American friends to buy the lumber they need?
It would be good if you could help explain in another video how these tactics help the American market with its end users.
Sure enjoy your videos.
Thanks! Great question. I have made a few videos on Lumber Tariffs and have a playlist here: ua-cam.com/play/PLkVbqWv5WbPBFwa362AyswcF4MvY0yxf7.html. Those are a few years old, but I am planning on making an update with the latest changes.
Basically, I think that tariffs are a waste. There are legitimate reasons to put them in place, but I don't think that there is a really strong case for that with Canadian lumber right now and it really drives Candian producers to export more to Asia - so interestingly enough, it reduces costs in Asia, but increases them in North America.
One of the most intersting things is that large Canadian lumber companies have actually invested heavily in American mills and timberland to reduce the risk of tariffs and so at the end of the day the people who are hurt are small producers in Canada who have a hard time competing and may have to shut down and consumers in the US who end up paying more.
You are reading the market completely wrong. Young people won't be jumping into the housing market anytime soon if ever. Today young people aren't getting married which means qualifying for mortgage loans won't be happening and definitely no at the current market rates for those homes. Most of the traditional first time home buyers aren't just avoiding marriage, they are avoiding debt on top of college debt that is outrageously high. Add to that a generation who have been indoctrinated into the "Climate Crisis and Small Carbon Foot Print" ideology and a probable housing market collapse all spell doom for the lumber industry !
Sheesh people need housing Einstein we have 50 million people here now without papers do you think they need housing?
Yes. I see less.
@@loboxx337 TENTS
He should stick to lumber pricing analysis. Stay in your lane homeboy
Where are the replacements going to live?
AWESOME INFORMATION DEEPLY THANKFUL, Lumber is a kind of economic thermostat.
Yes agree. I've been watching other indicators like building starts and permits on downward trends as well as architect billings. Unfortunately a lot of the chatter on here is irrelevant and missing the point. The construction industry is like an ocean liner and does not stop nor start on a dime. Expecting to see increases in construction jobs loses will a slower recovery. I heard from some single-family residential workers there is a rush to transition into multi-family jobs as the build times are longer and more opportunities to work over the winters. With new construction slowing the housing inventories will be more reliant on existing homes coming on the market which will be challenges as most current homeowners have mortgages with rates at or below 4%. Its going to take a long time for the housing market to recover unless home prices drop significantly. All the call for lowered interest rates are false flags. Home prices drive so many other affordability elements such as property tax, insurance rates and fees, repair and maintenance, etc. Additionally lower interest rates will only drive home prices up further. We need to allow home prices to drop to have a health market again. Only a huge bump in one's income can offset today's home prices and I would not hold your breath for that to happen.
@@michaelsd284 I have been a commodities trader as well as some specific stocks, always for 30 years I keep an eye on Lumber future contract as my guide line for healthy economy, and HO, LEN, LOW, CAT. Keep LUMBER on your watch list.
Don't know where you shop but in Alexandria KY, prices are thru the roof same as they have been. Not even a dollar less..peck
Im a lumber treater and we are as slow as we have ever been in 45 years
So let me get this straight!! A business makes money by selling their product for less than the cost to produce it? Come on guy!! Pretty sure that's more like how businesses go out of business!!! 🤣🤣
Diddo 😮
The over regulation of the logging industry is one major factor. Another is the Forest Service refusing to have timber sales.
true this. The USFS is a lousy manager of timber crops. But I shouldn't complain, as have a little timberland ready for a final cut. But the (real) prices on the stump are as low as my forester remembers them ever being.
Forest Service does bid contracting every 6 weeks. But the buyers have to sense an uptick the the lumber market a few months in advance before submitting a higher bid.
@@tnokes9247 In the southeast USA very little of the National Forest ever gets harvested. The WMAs do but most of those are timber company owned and leased to the state, usually for tax credits I presume.
They do offer timber sales. The environmentalists sue to stop them and then blame the forest service when they burn.
@@johnjones2463 Very few. About a tenth of what they offered a few years ago.
Home prices are crashing, some areas expect to see 50% reductions is price. The problem is people dont have the cash to buy anything or their debt to income is sky high and banks wont lend to them. Lumber prices aren't going up anytime soon either, we are already in a recession and about to be in a major depression, again, people cant afford to pay high prices for stuff anymore. Look at whats happening to fast food, these places are in full panic mode ! Fast food is now unaffordable and places like McDonald's Wendy's ect ect have seen almost a 30% loss of its customers. Thats why all these meal deals are currently happening, they are giving away food in an attempt to regain customers...
These places seem to think that their profits always go up. That is not reality.
It’s hard to say what will happen. If all the forests keep burning up, well, they’ll go up. Prices that is. We have more forested land in the US than at any other time. I do have to chuckle when we talk about the interest rates on houses. We got married in 79 and we bought a house just before we got married. We paid 11 1/4% interest on our loan that is high interest. And there were friends who got married after we did that bought houses that we knew and they paid closer to 12%. So all in all, housing rates aren’t terrible.
back then my dad was making 16 dollars an hour at a sawmill, they bought a new lindel cedar home for 43,000 dollars. yearly wage was the same as the cost of a new home...
Maybe check the brokers paycheck. I worked at a lumber mill. Guys in the fields are making the same. Mills are paying the same and that same mill is still selling for the same. Your brokers are hicking prices which retailers raise for us.
After the 1st of the year you will see all prices drop dramatically.
People are going to be amazed.
Things are about to change in a big way.
Are you trying to imply it's because of the next president?
If so, Donny or Kammie?
Put down the pipe & back away slowly.
Most people have no clue what is going on... still living in The matrix. Living in fear and believing the same regurgitated crap that's been repeated the last 100 years
After a recession hits and the markets tank, it will take down the price of wood along with it like it always does. It happened in 2020, 2015, 2008, and the charts don’t go back to 2000 but I’m sure it did then too.
Sometimes the prices will drop due to seasonal demand, November to February. It depends on how much they contracted to take in for the previous summer, and how much inventory they need to move before the new orders come in.
Here is a thought: The FED is not going to reduce anything, so be prepared for really bad economic times.
I love it when people who can't file a saw tell me how much I'm going to make whacking down trees
What do you mean.. Supply and demand and people controlling a market = if you will be filing your saw or not..
The industry as a whole is in decline. To say that lumber prices are going to soar is more than a little naive. I've been doing it for a while and it's tiresome having people with no skin in the game making predictions. Implied in that statement is the fact I cut down trees for a living so I might have a shockingly low tolerance for people being wrong about my line of work. Were it your life on the line you might feel similar. Good day
@@user-uf1mb5bj4xworking in the woods is hard work and dangerous if you don't know what you are doing.
Also, take into consideration that the U.S. has just imposed a substantial tariff on
Canadian lumber, which could mean higher prices down the
road.
Dave, you prepared a fairly good analysis, but one of the biggest factors missed is the restriction of lumber supply. The United States, under heavy lobbying from the US lumber producers, have trade tariffs on softwood lumber from Canada. And, that tariff is going to nearly double going from 8.00% to 14.5% and that means more affordable lumber from Canada will be restricted, forcing American homeowners and builders to pay increased amounts for lumber.
The US lumber industry continually argues that Canadian lumber is subsidized. It is not. Numerous decisions from the World Trade Organization dispute panels as well as from joint US-Canada arbitration panels have concluded that Canadian lumber *is not* subsidized. Furthermore, Canads has been granted awards of penalizing US produces for $Billions in compensation.
Regardless, at the end of the day American consumers lose, whether it be the homeowner, potential homeowner, builders, developers, municipalities, etc. as supply is reduced in order to force prices higher.
The housing market out paced the middle class about a decade ago. Lumber companies, like so many other organizations, jumped on the high price bandwagon in 2020.
Now the are at a cross road
The middle class cannot afford housing, which represents 75% of potential buyers, Further, they cant afford rent either.
The Democrat party has flooded states with poor illegal aliens, and are temporarily paying their rent. So, the availability of rentable space for Americans has diminished, leaving the middle class in a bind.
The FED has raised interest rates so the McMansion at 1% party is over.
The Democrat party is spending billions from its trillion dollar legislation, to place DEI people in the McMansions currently under construction, under section 8.
Builders are constructing more and more "Spec" homes, which are not energy efficient, forcing the price of ownership even higher, in order for builders to make larger profits on the front end.
Even manufactured homes have turned to the McMansion ideal, there pricing now approaching the 300k mark.
....
Therefore, what will be the eventual outcome?
The FED will lower interest rates by 1.5 percentage points in September, to appease the Democrat party, it will have no effect for most Americans, as housing remains far outside their reach, financially (28/32) rule.
Families will consolidate into existing housing, its there only logical solution. This consolidation will go on for the next two decades. Those who emerge, will have savings where they didn't purchase housing.
Most manufactured housing will turn to SIP building, resulting in highly energy efficient homes.
.....
Traditional site Building will therefore slow to a crawl, lumber demand will fall, and that housing market will be in a depression for most of America. Huge McMansions will sit without occupancy, before being converted into duplex and triplex rental units or condos.
Companies like Home depo will be forced to sell inventory well below cost, as the market for there goods dries up. They will survive on the home expansion business, but it will be a brutal price market as far as lumber goes.
With little prospect in the building market, and democrat party money drying up, many illegal aliens will leave America, unable to survive in the economy.
At the bottom, the market will correct, and housing will slowly restart, but it will be a very different outcome, as most all housing in the future, will be manufactured housing. The efficiency of SIPs will become the mainstay in manufactured housing, providing high energy efficiency, with affordable housing. Stud framing will see its demise, only occurring in Custom homes of the wealthy.
Too bad....gonna be accepting chickens as payment soon....maybe... allegedly
We don't live in a bubble. With all the turmoil going on in the world the chances for things getting worse is great and the chance for things to get back to normal slim. No matter who is elected.
there will be a big crash in the near future, democrats haven't got a clue how anything works, i don't know of one democrat that has had a business to run. trumps policy of drill baby drill is our only chance of getting prices down and economy back on track, but it will take time, years in fact...
Lumber sales are dwindling far less people buying! My town there was only 2 places that sold lumber one is now closed gone the other can charge all they like now. It’s nit just lumber I had to buy interior paint it’s over $50. a gallon can. Houses just won’t be repaired at these prices.
And the paint now is garbage too. Just completed some interior painting and most of the work took 5 coats.
I put a small project on hold, but hearing this from you, I need to kick that project into gear before it gets wild.
High lumber prices are PURE GREED they ARE NOT paying much for the raw trees
Do you have any idea how much it costs to build and operate a sawmill? Even if trees were free they have a lot of expense producing lumber and bringing it to market
no home is worth more than 2x local income. rates dont matter. you can pay too much for a house with low rates just as you can pay too much for a home with a high rates.
100%. All manipultion.
A house is worth whatever someone will pay for it today. We can talk “2x local income” and “manipulation”, but the fact is houses are being bought and sold everyday.
Prices are still high. Businesses just don’t want to cut prices due to greed.
There have been a few lumber mills in Oregon that havr closed down this year. My son works at one and they just spend millions building a new more automated mill needing about half the labor force.
Dave its disappointing to see you produce this video. You clearly do not understand the difference between Fed Funds Rate and MBS (mortgage backed security's) The fact that people are watching this and assuming you KNOW what your talking about is sad. PLEASE research and understand the difference and make a change to this video.
make it easy on us and explain what the difference is
@@cdawg9149 IN the last 12 months 30 yr mortgage rates have been at a high of just over 8% and a low of just under 6.5% all the while the Feds Fund Rate as been the SAME.... That's a 1.5% swing...... MBS and FFR are two totally different things.... Dave is advising how just a .25 or .50 change to fed funds rate is going to effect the buying power of homes. The feds lowering rates DOES NOT MEAN the mortgage rate will change at ALL.. and have a 1.5% swing during the last 12 months with his mindset would have changed lumber rates drastically BUT HAVE NOT>......
The fact that someone is using lumber rates to associate the major cost increase of rental prices is also incorrect. The largest reason why rental rates are so high is our Federal Governments choices during the pandemic.... this is the period of time when investors were advised YOU CAN NOT EVICT.... take it up the @SS for the next two years. MAKE your payments but don't expect any income from your rental. THINK of that business model. AT some point they have to make up for the losses...
@@dougrkyle You did not make it easy on us. You did make it confusing for us and further showed you don't know what you're talking about, unless you can connect the dots to see point you're trying to make.
@@dougrkyle agreed
Housing has been the shock absorber for the economy for hundreds of years. Slack in economy, housing increases. Economy tight, housing decreases. We need a much cheaper house, something under $100,000, new, sold for cash. The land price is a problem.
Pre-built smaller homes. It used to be that young people would buy cheap, small homes. Now they want 4 bedrooms, 3 baths, and granite counter tops as their first home.
@@MB-xe8bb That is because housing is a currency play in a debasement regime. When prices go up, buy big. When prices are falling, wait. Prices are up since 1980.
What a waste of 6 minutes. Spoiler alert "what direction do you think the lumber prices will go. UP or DOWN".
Sorry you didn't like it. My point is that I think that lumber prices are going to go up due to the reduced capacity of producers and the huge demand that is just on the horizon, but as I said, markets are complicated and so there could be all sorts of unanticipated events that could change things.
@@DIYwithDave and the US almost doubled the tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber. So the demand/price/cost is going up.
I saw this and just stopped on a lark. That chart tells any person with DECADES of experience as a trader, that prices are inevitably heading LOWER. You see a huge rally with a nice top, a sell off where prices held its bottom and 2 failed rallies in an an attempt to set new highs which failed. They you see a sell off that breaks through its bottom and shows a clear trend of falling prices I do not know what the next level of support is at an old held bottom but that IS where prices are going
Supply chain issues has been an excuse for builders to keep their material costs up
They should look into bamboo
Perhaps for processed lumber. But I hear they already use a lot of wood left over from milling for such materials.
Right... My mistake.
Come on people quit buying that Lumber at high pressure.
Instead of destroying good old Lumber in these old houses recycle that Lumber.
WTF??? Again???
@@cliffanderson7544 same prediction that didn't come true
Graphs are wonderful but actual pricing at the home owners level is so much better. I have been tracking the price of a 2x10x16' D.fur at the local big box store for over a year now. it hasn't changed; holding steady at $30.76. Northwest CT
You had to put something out there! Keep it up. Gotta get those views.
Trump if re elected wants more tariffs on lumber from Canada! Part of Project 2025 if you want higher prices and a 25% increase in taxes on wages vote republican.