Stock Market Crash in Retirement - How to protect your future

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  • Опубліковано 23 січ 2025

КОМЕНТАРІ • 271

  • @JamesShack
    @JamesShack  2 роки тому +157

    How lucky we are to be sat at home watching videos about retirement. Where a stock market crash is the worst of our worries. My thoughts go out to the people of Ukraine and all others affected!

    • @Aliassuk
      @Aliassuk 2 роки тому +2

      Hi James. Another great video, thanks. However please do reconsider the video thumbnail. Ukrainian flag/country next to the world relax don’t go well. Thanks

    • @w0rrap5
      @w0rrap5 2 роки тому

      World War III is knocking at your door
      ua-cam.com/video/IIeV6ChWss8/v-deo.html

    • @timhanser1943
      @timhanser1943 2 роки тому

      Well said sir.

    • @JamesShack
      @JamesShack  2 роки тому +1

      @@Aliassuk good point!

    • @zulfhashimmi2040
      @zulfhashimmi2040 2 роки тому

      Well said ! Let’s hope peace returns to Europe asap

  • @NoNonsenseJohnson
    @NoNonsenseJohnson 2 роки тому +54

    Insane to think this info is available for free to regular people on UA-cam. I appreciate your knowledge sharing. Even if it seems basic and easy. It’s only simple once you are taught.

    • @JamesShack
      @JamesShack  2 роки тому +4

      No problem!

    • @alicejack2649
      @alicejack2649 2 роки тому +3

      Hello Mrs Jane the bitcoin trader is legit and her method works like magic I keep on earning every single week with her new strategy

    • @hitupforinvestment360
      @hitupforinvestment360 2 роки тому +2

      @@danielpatrick2366
      Wow, how? I'm a newbie and I need your suggestions.

    • @rebeccanoah8119
      @rebeccanoah8119 2 роки тому

      Amazing I also started trading with her recently. $670,000 profits in just 2 months and still counting, Mrs Sophia is the crypto trade queen as far am concerned.

    • @andy.m265
      @andy.m265 2 роки тому +1

      @@rebeccanoah8119
      Of course you did 🤡😂😂

  • @bighare4205
    @bighare4205 2 роки тому +18

    The quality of content and the way you present it makes this the best channel for financial planning ideas. Thanks James, I have been waiting for this area to be covered. You nailed it.

    • @JamesShack
      @JamesShack  2 роки тому

      Thank you so much! I’m glad you enjoyed it!

  • @CarolinePicking
    @CarolinePicking Рік тому +4

    You keep making videos that address my worst fears - and then you alleviate them! Thank you.

  • @chuckmurray1825
    @chuckmurray1825 Рік тому +3

    Of course this video is a year old but 2022 was a year where both stocks and bonds fell and there was no protection from losses. Hopefully, things will improve going forward.

  • @omgomg2013
    @omgomg2013 2 роки тому +3

    Thanks Jame!!! We are super lucky to have you!!! Hope the situation in Ukraine, Siria, Palestine,... improve soon!!!

  • @Peter-55
    @Peter-55 2 роки тому +4

    Hi James, thank you so much for this video, and your many others. I retired in August 2020 and have a significant drawdown amount. I have not really had a robust, stress-free method of managing the account up to now. With your video and a lot of research, I have now written down a plan with rules. I have also changed the portfolio structure to better manage the ups and downs. Once again, thank you so much.

  • @ThomasColt
    @ThomasColt Місяць тому +5

    The stock market is definitely picking up pace right now, but I still think investors should be careful at this time. I'm actually a newbie in this space, so I'm open to hearing other investors' take on this.

    • @SeanJohns-ze8ie
      @SeanJohns-ze8ie Місяць тому +2

      I think the market is likely at its best now, but I still believe having a financial advisor is crucial to navigate the market and moderate your risk. Their expertise can really help you make informed decisions.

    • @SeanJohns-ze8ie
      @SeanJohns-ze8ie Місяць тому +1

      I've been working with a financial advisor since 2020, and I return up to 15k every month, and I don't even have to lift a finger. Although I also think the reason I make this much is because I started with significant capital.

    • @SeanJohns-ze8ie
      @SeanJohns-ze8ie Місяць тому

      My CFA, JOSEPH NICK CAHILL, is a renowned figure in his field. I recommend researching his name online; you'll find all his credentials and everything you need to work with a reliable professional. With many years of experience, he is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.

    • @TheDuke792
      @TheDuke792 Місяць тому

      Thank you so much for the suggestion! I really needed it. I looked him up on Google and explored her website; he has an impressive background in investments. I've sent him an email, and I hope to hear back from him soon!

    • @TheDuke792
      @TheDuke792 Місяць тому

      How can I meet with someone like that?

  • @jrc5515
    @jrc5515 2 роки тому +4

    The day I stumbled across these videos James was a real game changer.Proper hooked on your content.I definitely need an advisor as hoping to part retire at 55 in two years.Thanks again keep em coming 👌

    • @JamesShack
      @JamesShack  2 роки тому +1

      You’re welcome! I’ll keep going!

  • @kathythompson6021
    @kathythompson6021 2 роки тому +1

    Everytime you drop a video it’s always a blast..powerful,thorough and Clean keep It up

  • @thelettera9041
    @thelettera9041 Рік тому +1

    Can’t tell you how grateful I am for your excellent videos and explanations. I’m actually looking forward to sitting down with a spreadsheet and working out my retirement plan! Up til now I’ve just been ineffectually worrying

  • @sense90125
    @sense90125 2 роки тому +3

    Thanks James. I'm about to turn 55 (this week) and my plan was to retire in early summer but the volatility over the last few months and then the war has led me to think now just isn't a good time. I've a (long arranged) meeting with my financial planner this Friday so, with the great info from this and other vids of yours, we've a lot to talk about.

    • @JamesShack
      @JamesShack  2 роки тому +9

      The markets are very volatile now, it’s true. But do try to avoid getting trapped in ‘one more year’ syndrome. As there will always be another event coming down the line that causes nerves.

  • @alistairmackie4105
    @alistairmackie4105 2 роки тому +2

    This is an incredibly useful video. I'm a long way from retirement, but this has immediately put my mind at ease. I shall certainly look more into the topics you raised, to learn even more.

  • @davidwarwick6378
    @davidwarwick6378 2 роки тому +2

    Though various taxes and rules vary from Australia,in general their information you pass on is very easily adapted. I would ( and do) recommend these videos to anyone approaching the retirement age. Absolutely the best on UA-cam and I look forward to them each week.

    • @JamesShack
      @JamesShack  2 роки тому

      Ah David, thanks for the kind words! All the best to you and family!

  • @duttontube
    @duttontube 2 роки тому +1

    Another fantastic video. I'm still 20 years from retirement and an analysis strategy shift I've deployed has helped me manage these downward trends. In the past two years I fanatically tracked monthly gains, which was amazing. Now we are headed downwards I've shifted the analysis to look at monthly gains in ETF unit holdings. This has helped me get over the massive % gains and shift into a mindset of acquiring more units at discount. I'm now focused on unit accumulation Vs price increases helping me to stay in the market when the market is selling.

  • @mac301060
    @mac301060 2 роки тому

    Fantastic 2 rules to give 99% chance of money lasting - this is “one ring to rule them all etc......” & should be more widely known. Great videos that have shown me more than any paid advisor.

  • @fly1ngf1sh
    @fly1ngf1sh 2 роки тому +3

    Thank you for another great video with some very timely information!

  • @richardharnwell3331
    @richardharnwell3331 2 роки тому

    Not sure how I missed this one at the time, but another excellent video, thank you.

  • @dorinatudisco1308
    @dorinatudisco1308 2 роки тому

    So glad I fell upon your channel. Great information. Subscribed!

  • @johnwilliams8869
    @johnwilliams8869 2 роки тому +4

    Great video James as per usual. Love your succinct, relatable content. This video of yours is highly pertinent to myself, 63,and my wife, 64.
    Thankyou for delivering such delivering content which I find of a very high standard.
    Would you consider doing a video of how best to hold cash in these inflationary times. (ie strategies for holding cash with an element of risk?).

    • @JamesShack
      @JamesShack  2 роки тому +2

      Hi John , I’m glad you found it useful. Unfortunately there’s no clever way to get a better return on cash. The best you can do is match fixed term deposits to your cash flows. But cash is not there to get returns, it’s there so other parts it your portfolio can grow!

  • @TJE97
    @TJE97 Рік тому

    Refreshing to see a good video of sequencing risk!
    Althought I cant help but think the rules are a tad over-engineered - all you need to do is use a percentage withdrawal rule and sequencing risk disappears

  • @robertknott9349
    @robertknott9349 2 роки тому +7

    James - Great video for me as 57 and looking to retire in the next 5 years - Could you do a video for my kids shed 20 to 30 advising them on their investment plans as they are relatively new to investing 😄

    • @JamesShack
      @JamesShack  2 роки тому +3

      Hi Rob, thanks for the comment. Yes I’ll be doing more on that shortly!

    • @robertknott9349
      @robertknott9349 2 роки тому

      @@JamesShack thank you 🙏

  • @MartinHopkinson
    @MartinHopkinson 2 роки тому +1

    For someone with only 18 months to the commencement of drawdown, this was a re-assuring video, James. Thank you. You’re right about emotions, though. Having spent a lifetime viewing these market situations as opportunities to invest, it’s tempting to take my two years of buffer cash and invest it! But, as you and Pete Matthew (Meaningful Money) keep preaching: ‘stick to the plan’. I wonder if I can!

    • @JamesShack
      @JamesShack  2 роки тому +2

      Don’t even allow yourself to consider changing the plan. Lock away the keys until that annual review. Remove the decision.

  • @rainydayswithdogs
    @rainydayswithdogs 2 роки тому

    Very clear and helpful explanation. Thank you James.

  • @MikeSmith-sv5pc
    @MikeSmith-sv5pc 2 роки тому

    As always, great and timely advice. Love this channel. Thanks James

  • @robbobkirk
    @robbobkirk 2 роки тому

    Excellent video James. Thanks.

  • @ianbuxton525
    @ianbuxton525 2 роки тому

    Great video. Useful for Ian and Lucy nearing 55 and 57. Thank you.

  •  2 роки тому

    Congratulations for the video! It's well done and explained and totally useful. Many thanks and you have a new follower and sharer of your content 😊👍🏻

  • @majorpentatonic2310
    @majorpentatonic2310 Рік тому

    Buying an annuity reduces all stress. That's what I did earlier this year while the rates are up 😊.

  • @2222woosey
    @2222woosey 2 роки тому

    Hi James, great information - as ever! Just letting you know you have a typo at 5:11 - ‘chanegs’

  • @MrKlawUK
    @MrKlawUK 10 місяців тому

    someone needs to make an app or website that semi-automates this. It looks like a great plan, but am I going to go through this in detail each year when I’m 76?

  • @jaco111992
    @jaco111992 2 роки тому

    you're a legend bro. so helpful for me, cheers from Italy

    • @JamesShack
      @JamesShack  2 роки тому

      Thank you! Glad you found it useful.

  • @stevenobrien595
    @stevenobrien595 2 роки тому

    Excellent information! Thanks

  • @frederickwoof5785
    @frederickwoof5785 Рік тому

    I had to retire in Aug 2022 and I've not seen any gains yet. Trying to transfer one pension into vanguard and its taking months. Vanguard lifestrategy 40 is performing awful which is approx 50% of portfolio. I'm only drawing about 1.5% at moment. Its a tense time in October 2023.

  • @julianday5466
    @julianday5466 2 роки тому

    Another excellent video James. Informative and simple to understand. Extremely timely advice too, many thanks for covering this topic at this time when many retired folk will be anxious about their pension fund and the impact of a potential stock market crash on their future income. My new motto is 'What would James Shack do?'!

  • @alwAudio
    @alwAudio 2 роки тому

    This is excellent but it highlights to me how the pensions industry is doing such a poor job for.their customers. Many of us are forced to use providers that our companies choose and in many cases their standards of service are poor. My annual statement doesn't even give me a percentage return or a breakdown by fund choice, so I have to do that work myself. The management site doesn't even link to up to date fund information sheets. It scares me to think how few will watch a video like this and then implement it. I've read a lot of research recently and I think it's clear that with the UK pensions freedoms people aren't behaving how regulators and providers expect them to. You are providing a fantastic service so thank you!

    • @JamesShack
      @JamesShack  2 роки тому

      You’re welcome Andrew! Pension freedoms - with great power comes great responsibility, but most don’t have the knowledge they need to use that freedom correctly. And many end up making grave mistakes.

  • @timhanser1943
    @timhanser1943 2 роки тому

    Thanks James , liked and subbed . My pot is down big .

  • @wgj4813
    @wgj4813 Рік тому

    Very interesting and great pension management advice. Being retired is not simply sit back and enjoy you have to manage your money. Having a good solid portfolio is the foundation of any management of your money. Finding that portfolio is very hard. Management fees can soak up large lumps of your cash even when the stock markets fall. Management can just invest in a medium risk portfolio on the day after you hand over your money which so happens to be the day before a correction oh dear you lose before you have even started. Then the chosen portfolio being medium risk just doesn't reach 5%. . I learnt of one professional firm investing on behalf of a client hardly ever got above 2.5% when the overall market in the 20 teens was growing at around 10% so to me getting the right portfolio is actually more important than the management.

  • @robertp.wainman4094
    @robertp.wainman4094 2 роки тому +2

    I think many people who've been 'overdrawing' will really be badly affected by a sustained 'crash.' It's interesting that those who wouldn't think of gambling in any form - even a fiver on a horse or a lottery ticket - are prepared to take a risk on pension withdrawal.

  • @happychappy7115
    @happychappy7115 Рік тому

    The theory of a reverse correlation between Stocks versus Bonds, has broken and needs to be reviewed please

  • @TheSimArchitect
    @TheSimArchitect 2 роки тому +1

    It obviously works, but at the same time you may not run out of money, but you run out of enough income. If you have a couple of really bad years and you keep cutting 10% off you end up without enough to pay rent, utilities and other bare essentials. Imagine having a 2000's style crash while you keep having to withdraw money for expenses and the market takes 20 years to recover. Yes, you won't run out of funds, but if you needed that income you're unable to survive meanwhile. 😖

    • @whitakerdavid4999
      @whitakerdavid4999 2 роки тому

      Read the paper he refers to, the Prosperity Rule is applied more often than the Capital Preservation Rule. Its a really interesting paper.

  • @rosemarywalker6786
    @rosemarywalker6786 2 роки тому

    Great information James and very timely for me as I retire in June. Thank you 🙏

  • @outthesaddle2109
    @outthesaddle2109 2 роки тому

    What application do you use to back test portfolios with different portfolios (08:29) for instance?

  • @maino9752
    @maino9752 2 роки тому +1

    The 100 year market data that you base this on, what is it? S&P 500?

  • @haroldbetterson1877
    @haroldbetterson1877 2 роки тому +1

    Pls do a vid on draw down and paying tax. Say you have 100k and draw down, is first 25k tax free of taking it monthly, and also how to do the relevant tax return ☺️ subscribed

  • @stephenwaters637
    @stephenwaters637 2 роки тому

    Excellent content as always, very concise and valuable information. Many thanks James.

  • @skinnymoonbob
    @skinnymoonbob 2 роки тому +1

    I always assume that the real value of my portfolio is 80% of the current balance. This will absorb any potential shock in the market.

  • @ianmiller4478
    @ianmiller4478 2 роки тому

    Hi James, awesome vide, do you have the link to the simulator you use (apo
    logies if its been asked for before)

  • @Nolansr0
    @Nolansr0 10 місяців тому

    Tremendous video, James

  • @LibralGee
    @LibralGee 6 місяців тому

    I thought Real State will be there as well? not only Cash Bonds & Stocks

  • @boyasaka
    @boyasaka Рік тому

    So if I have 400grand in my pot in 9 years time when i retire
    And 6 months before I retire and the market crashes by 20 percent and my pot plummets to 320grand
    I still retire when I was going to , and I take 20 grand out of my pot to fund my living for a year
    Leaving 300k in my pot
    Following all crashes the makert had gone back up to where it was within a few years ,
    I’m not concerned about a crash at all
    Not like I have 400 grand in my pot and market crashes and my pot drops to 300 k and I then withdraw the lot !!!!!!

  • @elijohua
    @elijohua 2 роки тому

    Another great video, cheers James

  • @gerry2345
    @gerry2345 2 роки тому

    I like this vid. Good insight.

  • @jeremiah4267
    @jeremiah4267 Рік тому

    what if I don't want to touch the stock market with a 300ft pole?

    • @JamesShack
      @JamesShack  Рік тому

      Why do you not want to?
      If you don’t. Then you have cash accounts and property as the other alternatives

  • @jocar-1735
    @jocar-1735 Рік тому

    Hi James, i found this lesson very interesting having retired early a couple of years ago just before the stock market crashed due to Russia invading Ukraine. I used to think the 4% rule was appropraite for SIPP annual drawdowns but have now adjusted to the Guyton Klinger methodology as this gives me more confidence in ongoing dynamic drawdowns. I do have a few questions regarding the inflation adjustment withdrawal rule and would be grateful for your advice because there are different examples of the method in online articles.
    1. For year 2 SIPP withdrawal, is the amount determined by comparing SIPP value year 2 to (SIPP value year 1 - year 1 withdrawal amount) ?
    2. For a year 2 withdrawal amount to have an inflation increase, does the year 2 SIPP value simply have to be higher than the year 1 SIPP value minus year 1 drawdown value or does the year 2 SIPP value need to be much higher taking into account an inflation adjusted year 1 value minus year 1 drawdown ?
    I hope the above makes sense it is confusing !

  • @willewinky6527
    @willewinky6527 2 роки тому

    Perfect timing for me because I'm 60 years old and invested in the Railway Pension Scheme in the Global Equity Fund. It looks like I'm going to work an extra 5 years because the stocks and shares market is plummeting.

  • @rjw6401
    @rjw6401 2 роки тому

    Excellent video. Thank you

  • @phytlargy8196
    @phytlargy8196 2 роки тому +2

    Great video James thanks. If I have a Vanguard 80/20 fund how do I withdraw just stock or bonds. Assume that is not option and withdrawal just rebalances fund

    • @JamesShack
      @JamesShack  2 роки тому

      The Vanguard fund rebalances it for you. When selling you can only sell the whole unit. It gives you less control but that’s not a problem.

    • @Cali369
      @Cali369 6 місяців тому

      Thanks for asking - I was watching and wondering the same question

  • @Greylocks129
    @Greylocks129 Рік тому

    Hi James,
    You mentioned Guyton rules to reduce risk of running out of money. Would you rate these better than Vanguard’s Dynamic Spending rules or are they much of a muchness?
    Thank you, G.

  • @nb-ii2rb
    @nb-ii2rb 2 роки тому +1

    How often would you sell investments to generate your retirement income, every month / quarterly/ annually?

  • @nigelhamilton-brown1918
    @nigelhamilton-brown1918 9 місяців тому

    Thank you for all of your videos - they have all helped me better plan for my retirement. However for this type of dynamic spending strategy - is this instead of a bucket approach of cash/bonds and shares? - or is it used in tandem to fill up the cash and bond bucket?, thanks

  • @davidrobinson1492
    @davidrobinson1492 2 роки тому

    Most people as soon as the state pension kicks in, reduce the withdrawal amount from the drawdown anyway. Also I see that as you get into your 80s, spending falls of a cliff, unless you are paying for your kids bills and grandchildren, the next big expense is care homes, that’s a topic on its own.

  • @FlyingFun.
    @FlyingFun. Рік тому

    I just re watched this and I can defo see it now,
    I need to look again at my portfolio and work out exactly whats what,
    it's the bond part that is bugging me now, I dont know which one to get as they seem to be just as volatile as the stocks lol.

  • @thescand
    @thescand 2 роки тому +3

    Love your videos, James. The investment/retirement videos are great, would also appreciate some more basic things, i.e. - what to look out for in getting your first credit card, how to build good credit history, how that impacts your future, etc. etc..

  • @tmcche7881
    @tmcche7881 2 роки тому

    Please, repeat this video. Include high inflation, then talk about asset allocation.

  • @martycarmichael3885
    @martycarmichael3885 2 роки тому

    Great info!

  • @johnnygo6187
    @johnnygo6187 2 роки тому

    How do you view the Golden Butterfly portfolio mix? Has 40% stock, 20% LT bonds, 20% ST bonds, and 20% gold for retirement? It seems to have the least recovery period compare to other mixes (backtested from 1970 to have 3 years worst recovery vs. 60/40 bonds as 13 years or something like that).

    • @JamesShack
      @JamesShack  2 роки тому +1

      Why is time to recover the primary characteristic you're looking for? What are you actually trying to achieve?

  • @kavanoise1543
    @kavanoise1543 2 роки тому

    Great video. Can I just check would you choose 1 method or the other the use please?

    • @JamesShack
      @JamesShack  2 роки тому

      As with most things , it depends. Depends on how large a withdrawal rate you’re trying to sustain. Guardrails are more aggressive and absolute. Inflation adjustments are less easier to tolerate.

  • @USBCABLEGUY
    @USBCABLEGUY 2 роки тому +1

    I had no intention of growing my pension when I retire I thought that was the whole reason you work 35+ years. I plan on just 'making it last' until I'm in my late 80s. Unless you plan on leaving your kids a fortune is there any point in trying to continue building wealth into your 80s and 90s if you even live that long?

  • @johnsanderson9703
    @johnsanderson9703 2 роки тому

    Hi James, a quick question about Step 2, Portfolio Construction theory 101, assuming I am retired and no longer adding to my DC pot. If my entire portfolio is constructed of e.g. a single Vanguard Lifestrategy fund, can I assume that the rebalancing is done automatically, and hence I would simply top up my cash pot by selling some of this fund each year without the need to do any other rebalancing?

  • @bikeman123
    @bikeman123 2 роки тому

    James, your thoughts on fixed term annuities?

  • @simikhanna7650
    @simikhanna7650 2 роки тому

    Is it really beneficial to put as much as 30% of one's Portfolio Investments in Bonds in the present scenario?

  • @meadowside5kkzukjustgotkji787
    @meadowside5kkzukjustgotkji787 2 роки тому

    Hi James. I am 3 years away from retirement with both a DB (closed off 10yrs ago now worth @44% of current salary down an expected 60%) plus a DC pension that took over from the DB. My older colleagues are mainly selling their DB benefits between 20 and 23 times annual pension and going the ARF route. I was always told to hold onto the “Rolls Royce DB pension” so getting rather confused. The attraction of a higher tax free lump sum at retirement plus an inheritable asset for their families are the main reasons why they are leaning more towards the ARF. At retirement I should have several times annual pension in cash and be mortgage free. Family health history is good with parents well into their 80s. Have you any opinions? Thanks for your informative and thought provoking videos. Regards Joe

  • @FlyingFun.
    @FlyingFun. 2 роки тому

    Not very clear but I guess the gist is dont take out too much and dont take out too little just because there was a crash that year,
    Instead take out a little less the following years instead of suffering badly for one year..
    If I used the vanguard 60 40 how do I just take from bonds if stocks have gone down?
    Maybe just swap from 60 40 to 80 20 or something?

    • @FlyingFun.
      @FlyingFun. 2 роки тому

      @Colin Tayler yes so lifestrategy is no good for that then..
      I suppose.i.could have a lifestrategy and then 2 seperate bonds and equities and draw down from the separate ones and.then rebalance when things are favourable feeding in from the lifestrategy?

  • @Paulie44
    @Paulie44 2 роки тому

    I didn’t understand 🤷‍♂️ Will try watching a second time to see if I get it.

    • @Paulie44
      @Paulie44 2 роки тому

      I watched it a second time and still didn’t understand Guytons Inflation adjustment rule 🤷‍♂️

  • @MattMcQueen1
    @MattMcQueen1 Рік тому

    Sadly, as with all investments, there are no guarantees. Bonds have been underperforming, to the extent that my pension fund with Royal London (a lifestyle fund that moves more of your investment into "safer" bonds as you approach retirement age) is worth less now than it did two years ago, despite me putting a considerable amount into it every month. In addition, UK fund managers seem to favour putting your money into the UK stock market, which has also underperformed over the years. Lots of us have a reduced pension because of this. Note that the pension fund I am invested in is the default fund at Royal London - there will be many people, I am sure, who never look at their pension and are just happy that they and their employer are contributing to it.

  • @davidthomas-ot4cl
    @davidthomas-ot4cl 2 роки тому

    What about being 100% invested in stocks throughout retirement and then selling some when the market is high to last you 2/3 years and then you can ride out the market dips and sell some again when the market recovers to replenish your cash pile. Yes you lose some of the growth when the market is doing well but then you also don't have to waste money in lower yielding bonds.

    • @JamesShack
      @JamesShack  2 роки тому

      You could do that with a larger cash buffer. Hard to tell when the market is high though!

    • @davidthomas-ot4cl
      @davidthomas-ot4cl 2 роки тому

      @Colin Tayler I'm amazed more people aren't doing it this way.

  • @bumblebee9288
    @bumblebee9288 2 роки тому

    Love your videos James. I am aiming for 1 million in retirement and am about £600 k at moment. I see stock market crashes as opportunities to buy at lower prices hopefully for a few years until I retire possibly in 8 years time. However you ALWAYS need a contingency plan so I have plenty of other investments that will hopefully see me through guaranteed future crashes.

    • @JamesShack
      @JamesShack  2 роки тому +3

      You're still in the golden zone, a crash right now would be optimal!

    • @bumblebee9288
      @bumblebee9288 2 роки тому +1

      @@JamesShack I know I work at Aviva and I am paying £1070 a month into my work pension each month hoping that the s&p keeps falling as I am currently picking up bargains but I want it to drop more!!! Also they gave us all £1k in shares so that's my dividend income in retirement given another boost! You are doing a great job hopefully you get more viewers and subscribers as you deserve them !! 👋👋👋

  • @duramajin3118
    @duramajin3118 2 роки тому

    I hit FIRE in November. I quit work but haven't started actively drawing on the portfolio, a little scary atm lol.

    • @JamesShack
      @JamesShack  2 роки тому

      Congratulations! It’s a very strange behavioural step to get your head around.

  • @marshmello1848
    @marshmello1848 2 роки тому

    So you would take out once a year in retirement. Must admit, I don't really understand the video - would you consider doing some videos on financial maths by any chance?

  • @philgalz
    @philgalz 2 роки тому

    great video James (again). the Guyton rules are quite hard to understand but this has explained it very clearly, I am wondering if there is a handy Spreadsheet anyone knows of that can do the maths automatically on a year by year basis to help calculate the coming years income? i was about to write one myself but often there is a much better one out there.....

    • @JamesShack
      @JamesShack  2 роки тому

      I have not come across one yet .

    • @philgalz
      @philgalz 2 роки тому

      @@JamesShack no worries, I've put one together now cheers

  • @harish2107
    @harish2107 2 роки тому

    Never commented on a video before, but thanks for an excellent video!
    Hate to be a pedant :-) but @5.20 you slide on Annual Review has misspelt Changes

    • @JamesShack
      @JamesShack  2 роки тому +1

      Haha - so many slides in this! Was always going to be one! Glad you enjoyed this!

  • @lornaprice5679
    @lornaprice5679 2 роки тому

    A very interesting and instructing video. Is the software you are using to produce these simulations available to buy?

    • @JamesShack
      @JamesShack  2 роки тому

      www.timelineapp.co/features/?gclid=CjwKCAiAvaGRBhBlEiwAiY-yMLRov3ADA1Q2TlELTfk4pSE_zeZ61iSVfvcV_Wjatlja3WWcSxa56xoCiCoQAvD_BwE

  • @alleneverhart4141
    @alleneverhart4141 2 роки тому

    Ok this is incredibly complicated so I had to watch it a bunch of times and spreadsheet your examples. I'm getting different results than you so maybe I'm not understanding. In example 1 with 5% performance and 2.5% inflation, I'm getting that you should NOT take the 2.5% income adjustment in year 1 because that would be a 5.1% withdrawal rate (note: you need more like 5.3% performance to replace the year 0 withdrawal - still, the inflation adjustment puts you over the initial 5% rate.) Also, in year 2 the income adjustment still exceeds 5% so the income adjustment should NOT be taken in year 2 as well. I see that performance needs to be more like 8% to take the 2.5% inflation adjustment. Did I pass the test?

    • @JamesShack
      @JamesShack  2 роки тому +1

      Remember you should not be reducing the growth rate by inflation. You only increase the income drawn by inflation. But, you're right, if you only ever received a n annual growth rate of 5% you're going to fail a lot if you have a starting withdrawal rate of 5% that increases by inflation each year.

  • @davidn3971
    @davidn3971 2 роки тому

    Hi James. Great video as usual. You mention holding a mix of stocks and bond funds however in some of your other videos you suggest that 100% stocks is the optimal holding for long term growth of your retirement fund.
    So what is the optimal holding?

  • @andyandy7980
    @andyandy7980 2 роки тому

    Hi James I really appreciate your videos and has really helped me understand how to invest for my future and made me feel so much more comfortable. I have opened vanguard Isas and wife has transferred her old pensions there too. What I am still unsure about is what funds to put your pension pot in when I retire. I was thinking of moving it to a vanguard drawdown, I like the lifestyle funds and invest in that now. Would this be a good option once I retire too and split across the different lifestyle funds. Could you do a video on this topic?

    • @JamesShack
      @JamesShack  2 роки тому

      I can't say what would be good for you specifically, but lots of people do use the LS funds throughout their lives. You just need to work out how to manage cashflow and risk in retirement, that's the main challenge.

  • @krassidimitrov2
    @krassidimitrov2 Рік тому

    Dear James, I have 3 flats that I have already payd off and Im renting them at the total price of 3k per month after tax. The value of them is around a milion euro. Im 36y with 2 kids.. Im thinking to start investing in buying land. Is that ok to you?

  • @paultaylor2783
    @paultaylor2783 2 роки тому

    Hi James,
    Loving your videos! I have literally watched all of them in a few days.
    We are in a position to start investing and your videos have been immensely helpful. Definitely the best source of info I have come across.
    We are ready to pull the trigger on stocks and shares isa life strategy fund 100 or 80. But I’m now wondering if I’m best to top up my defined benefits pension with acv’s into a linked defined contribution pension. 🤔 what are your thoughts?
    It would be great if you could do a video on this and explain it all in your easy to follow way.
    Keep up the good work. 👍

    • @JamesShack
      @JamesShack  2 роки тому

      Glad you found them useful!

  • @fontane007
    @fontane007 Рік тому

    Excellent

  • @arunmenon6513
    @arunmenon6513 2 роки тому +1

    Great video again, a bit technical with the moral of the story - one does need a good financial adviser😀

  • @tancreddehauteville764
    @tancreddehauteville764 2 роки тому +3

    Why o why do people keep wanting to retire at 55 with utterly inadequate pension funds? If you are in the police, armed forces, or a medical doctor then retirement at 55 is either mandatory (for the first two) or a very realistic option (for the doctor), but for those of us in normally paid private sector jobs (i.e. not managing directors etc) it is not. Once you have been earning, say, £60k a year, then £20k a year will simply not cut it. Your lifestyle will need to be adjusted too drastically for you to cope. You need to be aiming for at least 50% of your gross income as a pension, if not 60-65%, which would be ideal.

    • @edwardkenworthy7013
      @edwardkenworthy7013 2 роки тому +5

      Not sure about that. I think you are forgetting that you don't pay any NIC on your pension and 25% of your income is tax free, then you get your usual tax free allowance on top. Plus the UK tax regime ensures diminishing returns so the first £30K of your income is a lot more valuable than the second. And from £100K-120K you pay an eye watering marginal rate of 60%.
      And hopefully when you retire you'll have paid off your mortgage. And you won't be contributing to your pension any more.
      And at 67 I'll get just under £10K/year from The State.
      My current planning shows I can have exactly the same disposable income from a gross personal pension income that's about a third of my current gross income. And at 67 the amount I need from my personal pension will drop.
      Am not a managing director.

    • @stevegeek
      @stevegeek 2 роки тому +1

      I hear what you’re saying, but this thing about needing to have a pension income 50+% of your salary to comfortably retire is bogus. It entirely depends on how much of you need to spend to live the lifestyle you want, which doesn’t necessarily equate to your salary. In my case I have quite a lot of disposable income (mortgage paid off and no debt) so I’m fortunately able to set money aside each month. I don’t need 50+% of my salary when I retire.

    • @alleneverhart4141
      @alleneverhart4141 2 роки тому +1

      A lot of people are willing to downsize their lifestyle quite a bit to give their crappy-old job the heave-ho! Witness the great resignation happening here in the US. If you are willing to retire abroad there are many nice countries in Central/South America with with warm climates where the cost of living is 1/3 of the US. Also Asia. How would that change your perspective?

    • @tancreddehauteville764
      @tancreddehauteville764 2 роки тому

      @@alleneverhart4141 I'm British, not American - we tend to stick to things through thick and thin. We're not quitters by nature. And no, I would never live abroad.

  • @oli0808
    @oli0808 2 роки тому +1

    Your videos are really useful, thank you for making them. In a lot of the videos you seem to say that you are guaranteed growth over 30 years with index funds. How does this tally with the Nikkei 225 index? Is it not possible that in the near future the Western indexes (which form a large percentage of vanguard life strategy) could drop and never recover for 40 or 50 years, or maybe never again? If this were to happen would inflation stop like it did in Japan? With regular monthly payments from 1989 to 2019 in the Nikkei 225 you'd make 2% I read, which is fine with no inflation, but we've got 6% at the moment. I don't know if it's possible to know these things?

    • @JamesShack
      @JamesShack  2 роки тому +1

      I would always advise a globally diversified portfolio for that exact reason. With a global portfolio, if we see no growth for 30 years that means the human race has not advanced at all. This could happen, but it’s very very unlikely. So unlikely that it’s not worth thinking about. Like the risk of getting on a place.

    • @oli0808
      @oli0808 2 роки тому

      @@JamesShack Thanks, this makes sense. Also it's kind of a moot point. Other than property or art or wine, what can you really do with your money that has any chance of beating inflation.

  • @threeqs2424
    @threeqs2424 2 роки тому

    Thought this was excellent.

  • @bencarter8905
    @bencarter8905 2 роки тому

    Potentially an idea for a video. Would sequencing affect the accumulation phase of a portfolio while saving for retirement as drastically or would the initially lower amounts and longer time horizon mean that the spread is less significant. Not sure if this is something timeline can do

    • @JamesShack
      @JamesShack  2 роки тому

      When you’re accumulating you want the opposite . You want a long and painful crash, or series of crashes so you can keep buying in low. Then pray it reverts to the mean with a big rally before retirement 🙏🏻

    • @bencarter8905
      @bencarter8905 2 роки тому

      Yeah exactly. That’s why I think it’d be interesting to know how much impact sequencing has on the accumulation as I’ve only ever seen how drawdown is affected by retro testing. My gut would say while there’s some difference, the smaller sums that investments start with will be more impacted by the contributions and there’ll be a smaller variance in the pot of cash after say 30 years

  • @graveworm1000
    @graveworm1000 2 роки тому

    Great content as always man😎🤘 what is the name of the software that showed the succsess rate?

    • @JamesShack
      @JamesShack  2 роки тому

      Timeline - you can download a free trail otherwise it’s quite expensive. It’s targeted at advisers to use with their clients.

    • @timmitchell6799
      @timmitchell6799 2 роки тому

      There is also "portfoliocharts" which has the historical annual returns in the background. However, this is aimed at American investors and anyway it takes a lot of thinking about - if you're not very careful you can draw all sorts of dodgy conclusions.

  • @jacacc12
    @jacacc12 2 роки тому

    Hi James, what is a reasonable fee for a financial planner to look & plan your pension / retirement ? Also do you think it is best to take a final salary or transfer value which is much more higher in value ?

    • @davidrobinson1492
      @davidrobinson1492 2 роки тому

      James can’t answer that question about moving a final salary scheme, it’s all dependent on your circumstances, health, marital status, personal circumstances, how much other savings and other investments you have, inheritance tax situation, if you want to leave a legacy, and risk profile. As for fees, you will need to pay someone to take the responsibility of moving the DB scheme, I am an ifa and I send any request for a DB pension transfer to a specialist transfer company, I would say 50% I reject before I send them ti them, as they are not suitable, they then go on to reject say 30% of the ones I send.
      The FCA says that the starting point for any transfer is it’s unsuitable, then we have to build a case to show why it’s is suitable.
      I had one transferred for a client of mine who was 45, he had terminal cancer, no widow, his scheme would have returned his contributions ti his children, say £5000, we transferred it, and they got £350,000, he died within the week he signed it.

    • @jacacc12
      @jacacc12 2 роки тому

      @@davidrobinson1492 Thank you for your reply David, I did't expect James to be able to answer the final salary or transfer value question & I understand the reasons why. But could you please give me a reasonable idea of what an IFA or a company should charge for advice on the above ? Our whole estate is being left to charity as we have no children & we are very fortunate to have more than enough money to see us through life. I just don't want to get ripped off as regards to fee's and just would like a reasonable figure or percentage of what I should be being quoted as there seems to be a lot of scammers about.

  • @chuckmurray1825
    @chuckmurray1825 2 роки тому

    Thanks for making a video that gives us a "reasonable" strategy to follow. Most of my portfolio is pretty much on auto-pilot with Vanguard in charge. I have just a few ETFs and individual stocks that I manage. I've left my self-managed portion pretty much "as is" for now unless I see a chance to add to a stock that I really believe in for future growth. I'm trying to not watch my portfolio right now and keep the faith that things will improve.

    • @aflexerclarinton8906
      @aflexerclarinton8906 2 роки тому

      What ETF’s have you got?

    • @JamesShack
      @JamesShack  2 роки тому

      You’ve put your portfolio on auto pilot so you don’t have to worry about this stuff !

    • @chuckmurray1825
      @chuckmurray1825 2 роки тому

      @@aflexerclarinton8906 Just a few right now; Energy, Financials, Communications and Consumer Discretionary (a recent add).

    • @aflexerclarinton8906
      @aflexerclarinton8906 2 роки тому

      @@chuckmurray1825 do you mind sharing the tickets for research purposes?

  • @STW1964
    @STW1964 2 роки тому

    Thanks for the video....I'm 58 and retiring in 1 week, got 700k fund and parking it in Royal London until things settle down and I can choose which RL funds to put the money in .... Really helpful channel 👍

    • @JamesShack
      @JamesShack  2 роки тому +1

      Thanks for watching Steven, good luck with the retirement!

    • @STW1964
      @STW1964 2 роки тому

      @@JamesShack keeping an eye on your content, as well as going through the old video's. I like your perspective and have some major decisions to make in the next couple of weeks, so the more information I can take on board the better :-)
      Cheers

  • @edwardkenworthy7013
    @edwardkenworthy7013 2 роки тому +1

    Maybe I am missing something about bonds but at the moment they look like the worst possible place for my wealth: return free risk.
    At least with cash yes I will lose %inflation every year but I'll still have all of my capital. With bonds I'll still lose money because the coupon is less than inflation and I can also lose from the bonds themselves going down in value or the issuer goes bust.

    • @edwardkenworthy7013
      @edwardkenworthy7013 2 роки тому +1

      @Colin Tayler That's a circular argument: you need bond because you need bonds. My point is that bonds are a terrible investment now and they're not as out of synch with shares as they have been in the past, and that doesn't look like changing any time soon, and so they can't play their 'traditional' role in dampening volatility.

  • @dubsdolby9437
    @dubsdolby9437 2 роки тому

    Hi James
    Helpful video alot of Helpful facts particularly about the role of inflation. Another protective measure that has worked particularly well for me is building a quality yield shield a portfolio of robust blue-chip dividend payers.
    If your fortunate to have picked up bargains along your investing journey and tucked into your isa you can have a good tax free income stream of around 8-10% if you're lucky . Covid was an exception with alot of dividends being stopped but that was a rare black Swan event.