Holding Cash Waiting For The Next Stock Market Crash - Genius idea or fatal mistake?
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- Опубліковано 14 чер 2024
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I am a Chartered Wealth Manager and Partner in a financial planning practice based in the UK. If you would like to find out more about working with us, please follow this link: go.novawm.com/getintouch
In this video, we dive into the data to work out if holding cash in anticipation of the next stock market crash is a genuine strategy, or one that's going to leave you in the dust.
Now this is a situation we all find ourselves in at times. And we all ask exactly the same question.
You're sitting there with cash that you want to invest but you're also looking at the markets, that are currently sitting at an all time high and thinking, surely they have to come down from this point. They have too, it's almost a given. And surely if I just wait for them to drop, or I just put in a limit order, below where the price is now I'm sure to get in a better price.
Limit order - [www.investopedia.com/terms/l/...](www.investopedia.com/terms/l/...)
But is this really a good strategy? For these two work two things that need to happen:
1) The markets need to drop to hit whatever target price we set
2) We need to actually buy when the time comes, and don't chicken out or get too greedy
We can get a good indication of just how likely this first part is to happen simply by looking back at historical data. But the second part is going to involve digging into the behavioural challenges that you will face, the emotions and the biases that will need to be overcome to execute this strategy properly.
*The Data*
- Please feel free to make copies of this and play around with it.
- The data has not been topped and tailed. Some of the ATH's at the start of the data set may not actually be ATHs. Likewise, time has not progressed enough to truly tell whether recent years may actually hit our price target in the future. I decided that the data set was large enough that these would not have a massive impact. But if you want to have a go and make some better assumptions please do so and let me know the results in the comments.
-20% Price Target (1960-2021)
[docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...](docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...)
-20% Price Target (1980-2021)
[docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...](docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...)
-10% Price Target (1980-2021)
This has better chances of paying off, but you need to remember that after you've taken off any lost dividends your potential return is very small in comparison with the potential loss. The risks are asymmetric. It's kind of like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.
[docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...](docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...)
00:00 - The Question
03:32 - The Data
10:31 - The Psychology
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The author asserts their moral right under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 to be identified as the author of this channel and any video published on it.
Looking back on this video a year on: If we started this cash holding strategy when this video was published (when S&P 500 was at 4247 ) we'd need the S&P 500 to drop down to 3,397 (a further 12%) before we bought in.
So with all the QE that's gone on in the last year, surely it's cash that has lost its value?
Alright, but what if I don't hold onto cash, but, if the market takes a fat dive like 50%+, I take the biggest loan I can afford and invest it immediately ? The consequence being that I do not have any money left to invest the following months and years as I'm paying back the mortgage instead. Would that be just as stupid, or does it make sense ? Are there studies for this scenario ?
"TIME IN the market is better than trying TO TIME the market"
A saying that has done the rounds loads, but never understood until the video. Cheers.
To be honest Peter I’d never looked at the data until this video either. Even I thought those numbers would be higher!
Time in the market beats timing the market. DCA and stay the course.
Lets go!
DCA?
@@ArcanePath360 DCA= Dollar cost average $ in regularly.
@@jenniferwise8515 Ah I see, thanks
So pound cost averaging in the UK
Great analysis! I always come back here to watch this whenever I catch myself having thoughts on trying to time the markets. The data speaks for itself, it pays to be objective and staying invested at all times. Investing in great companies or buying them at fair prices despite markets hitting all time highs beats staying out and trying to wait for that crash. 👍🏻👍🏻
All the data used in this video is available in the description. Many thanks to my mate Anthony who coding everything up in Python. Did the result surprise you?
Many of us have sold. Selling is not all-or-nothing - but many of us have sold a fair chunk while keeping some market exposure. Having some 'dry powder' is a great feeling. When/if the market tanks, you have protected a portion of your nest egg. And you have a chance to buy at lower prices. Right now the market P/E is historically very high, around 30, while the average is around 16. So the likelihood of big upward moves in the market are less likely.
This not a bad time to take some money off the table. It's not an all-or-nothing choice, but having cash is good when the market is toppy.
@@Greg_Chase I think this is a very fair comment. If it helps you embrace the dips/correction then it’s totally reasonable.
It would be nice to calculate also the historical rate of p% drawdowns for other (possibly many) p's
what about shorting the market
This is so true! Stopped 2nd guessing the market since
Love your honesty at the end, very refreshing. Really enjoy watching your content, a credit to your profession.
Thanks Patrick, that means a lot!
Oh, the money I have lost while trying to protect myself from losses. I think it's greater than what I lost in 2008. Lost opportunity. Ouch. Great video.
Great to hear from someone who's been there and experienced it. Let's hope others can learn from your experiences!
Personally I've screwed around all my life made very little money, bought a home paid for it, and I still don't do anything, but I get big fat checks in the bank all the time, every month. Plus all the stimulus. Life is a piece of cake. Age 63.
@@cynthiaayers7696 you selling training xd
Not looking forward to the day when 11:40 is upon us. Every crash in hindsight is a buying opportunity, that's what I'll keep repeating to myself!! Thanks James, watched this twice to make sure I got all the info, very informative
We haven't had a real market in 12 years since QE1,2,3,4-ever.
This
Or since Nixon took (defacto) the whole world off the gold standard; which meant meant money could be printed without restraint?
Just invest like 70% and keep 20-30% cash instead of full cash
Exactly what I’m doing
Cash is garbage if you dont hold gold or silver you will loose!
@@poepoe2828 cash good for deflation, gold&silver for inflation.. media saying we going to hyperinflation.
That means get ready for deflation.
We are at the end of this society as we know it. Good luck
@@albatrutho.3365 sounds familiar. Oh
@@albatrutho.3365 Okay Doomer
(secretly agrees)
Thanks James this was a really interesting video. I'm curious how these odds and month durations differ when you look to say MSCI World or FTSE All World and you tweak the percentages from 20 to say 5,10,15 %. I suppose the odds from changing to a wider index probably don't change things too much, but the lower percentages will.
Oh and I've done similar with a limit order myself, but sort of the other way around, I kept inching it up a bit until it went through, I'd have been better making it less ambitious the first time!
Hi Robert, I did it with -10% and that was:
Average Day 58.26% and 19mths
ATH 59% and 24mths
So after missed dividends you’re looking at a 60% chance of a 6% gain. And a 40% chance of a much bigger loss. It’s like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.
Other markets will largely be the same. The biggest difference will be due to dividends. UK stock prices have barely moved in comparison with the US. But they pay much higher dividends so a cash and wait strategy will be even less effective in the UK.
@@JamesShack thanks James that's very interesting.
Wow! Great content! And thank you for taking the time to undertake a research like this. It makes me and I believe many others to be confident *being* in the markets instead of actively trying to play it, in hindsight the markets *were* playing us! It has always been time *in* the markets that makes or breaks the deal, not timing it.
Well said John.
Congrats on the 10k James. Well researched and explained videos keep up the good work 👍👍👍
Cheers Toby, good luck with the channel.
Wow I am absolutely amazed by the quality of your content! I really strive to deliver good quality and visuals but this is just amazing! Keep it up!!
Great video and analysis. I am never worried about market highs, but I worry about possible events. I have some money in cash thinking a combo of a real estate bubble popping and a spike in inflation can cause a dip (30%?) in the market then recover in 12-18 months. I plan to put new money in on a low. With COVID I pulled some out, waited till it settled then bought back in (a small net loss, but was happy to have less risk during uncertainty. Have you looked at times following inflation spikes?
Proudest investing of my life was the beginning of covid. I bought in the entire ride down. It could not have gone better, but I was surrounded by doubt for sure
Subscribed
I really appreciate your honesty. What you said was on the real of how things truly go down. I needed that reminder.
🙌
Just started following your channel. You talk a lot of sense in a very pleasant manner. Thank you.
Welcome!
This is very valuable thanks!
Going to hold my nerve James, and stick with investing regularly on a monthly basis, the inner chimp is being held at bay!
Good stuff!
Another great video James, thank you!
No worries Sara!
I learned if you wait for a crash to invest, you'll likely never invest.
are u sure ? let's see...2002,2008,2011,2015,2016,2018,2020...
Crash is not just once a year. In 2020, there were 3 major sell offs and I know this from learning the hard way.
@@mikeylovespizza4012 i want o be wealthy pic 5 stocks that will be big in next 10-20 years
Not really, l already made my money... Now, l am watching how history going to repeat itself when the market crash and wipe the smile of the greedy late comers
@@nickyyap1663 lol there is more people like you waiting to happen hahha
Thank you for your thorough and easy to understand analysis. Keep up the good work!
You’re welcome Rich!
Subscribed, been watching a few videos in the backlog... really enjoying your channel, great advice 👍
Cheers, and welcome !
James appreciate this a lot. The data was interesting but your personal reflection of the emotional decision making was much appreciated. I’ve been waiting for a crash the last few months before buying in but I am also guilty of not buying at the bottom last year. I’ve been wracking my head and very self critical. You nailed it when you said your as likely not to buy in at the boot on if your mindset is to stay out at the top. Good luck with the channel.
Cheers Sean!
Super interesting topic and brilliant video (I have just subscribed). Thank you. I think the big question is whether markets fundamentally is as they have been the last 60 years or so, or are we in some extraordinary unprecedented situation not seen before. The crash in 2008 was obviously big but perhaps a much worse (total meltdown) was avoided after all. Does that mean the total meltdown has been postponed for years supported by cheap money (if markets where ok the rate should have climbed at some point?). This position is basically that we can only learn from history (data) to some extent but should be aware of the possibility of a "black swan". You would think that there has to be some (material) value behind the price setting in the long run.
Great video and insights. Thank you!
You’re welcome!
Great video. I tried to time the market last year because I knew stocks were going to tank because of the lockdowns. I took a chunk of money and threw it into my Roth. Unfortunately, I put it in too soon (February). I should have just kept dollar-cost averaging. On the bright side, I didn't panic like many others and pull out of my stocks. I just "stayed the course" and didn't look at my portfolio for a while. At least I recouped all my losses, and then some!
Hi James,thanks ,thoughtful videos . Curious-do these apply to global Investors,is there a video for those who made money only in their late 40s, and look to begin investing in early 50s. Thanks.
This resonates with me. I have only been investing for 6 months and have about 10% of my savings in index funds. I am slowly drip feeding money into my investments as I’m still a little nervous to yolo most of it in. For me I am happy if I can beat inflation and the dire interest banks are offering!
Keep up the great content 👏
Hi Mark, good stuff. Like you say, important to remember what your goals are and not get caught up in the “beat the markets” hype. As long as your achieving your goals who cares what your performance is!
Thanks for the support!
James' point at the twelve minute mark is spot on!
I was wondering about what topic you were going to talk with the polls you put in your channel , i really enjoyed watching this video. Great content James , keep up with your channel , it´s really interesting and enriching , it´s nice to have a more real perspective of investments . Regards from Jalisco , Mexico
Hi Jose, thank you and I will!
Amazing vídeo James! Curious about what platform you use to do these back tests and arrive at these probabilities. Would you mind sharing your source?
My mate did it in Python bit before that I just did it myself in excel.
Absolutely fantastic video. Top marks!
Thanks mate, means a lot!
You've mentioned a great point. Its extremely difficult when its your money at stake. Its very hard to be objective.
It is indeed!
Especially when you are older and retired.
Great video!!!
I’m glad to have found your site. I’m looking forward to learning from you.
👍🏽
Another great & informative video, thanks 👍😀
Glad you enjoyed it
Yes, I believe there's an angle you haven't considered, which is that, even though crashes of 20% or more may occur only 40% of the time (at best) after a market high, the total gains you might achieve by waiting for those crashes (which have been much greater than 20%) may actually exceed the total gains achieved by a strategy of dollar-cost averaging at market highs.
That said, the thing you got most right (IMO) is the assumption that most people don't have the stomach to buy during a crash, and that's the best reason the average investor should avoid the wait-for-a-crash strategy.
Great video. 36 months is along time to be on the sidelines. You mentioned dividends at 2% to 4% but also in the case of the S&P 500 it’s important to think about what the annual gains would be. What if they are at an average 8% per year? In this scenario we would find ourselves back to square one if and when the correction happens. Maybe keeping a predetermined amount of dry powder on hand for the more volatile stocks or just to have so we can dollar cost average down on our favorite stocks in our portfolios.
Yes good point Guy. To be honest, the only reason i can get behind for keeping cash on the side is because it helps you to mentally embrace crashes more easily... however you may just blow your dry powder too soon and still end up feeling crap about it anyway!
Thank you for doing this video, I know this very dilemma has been in my thinking many times in the last few months. But I’ve concluded that for me consistent dollar cost averaging is the way to go. Great content as ever.
Very well said...especially the section around psychology!
Thank you so much for the video. I have learnt a lot from it.
Glad to hear that!
Brilliant video!
This is great analysis. I for sure was surprised at the result. Thanks for the brilliant content. 💪
Great job on the video. I’ve seen a thousand videos around the markets crashing but nothing from this perspective. I just sold my home and now I’m going rent and sit on my profit until the right time comes.
My current strategy: continue to DCA into current positions at a "moderate" rate but also putting aside some cash I can lump sum buy in the next market downturn. Also, this cash bucket is separate from my emergency fund and other funds which I'm putting aside to jump into more real estate in the next housing market crash
Yeah, have a list ready of the best stocks in each sector you want to own at a crash sale.
Buy and hold.
Also a ex finacial planner & understand your own decisions, thanks for the honesty
Excellent video, you’ve earned a sub.
Thank you and welcome!
Thanks for the video. Really love how you use data driven approach to debunk the failing strategy of holding cash while waiting for market to fall. I think having data is really helpful and can absolve a lot of fear for an average investor.
Thanks Rufus, I'm definitely going to do that a lot more moving forward,
Thank you for this! With your short video, you changed my whole investment style for the better, I think! Thanks once again!
You're welcome!
Wow! Really interesting video, I loved all the data. I'm sure a lot of work went into making those graphs so thanks you. Also appreciate the honesty at the end! I was surprised by how low the chances are of the price dropping 20%. Gives me confidence to stay strong emotionally in my investment over time
Cheers Mark, I was surprised too to be honest!
This is a topic that has been discussed by Ben Felix. Nevertheless, it is useful to hear it over and over again. Well done...
You are so right about the emotional aspect. This is why I'm trying to stop looking at the economy and not be an active trader.
Your analysis is great but it's good to remember the wider circumstances around the stock market, like right now inflation is the concern. If interest rates go up a lot then there is likely to be a lot less interest in stocks and so a large sell off.
Yes indeed. Although it’s not if interest rates go up, it’s if they go up faster or further than the market is already anticipating. Almost everyone is expecting inflation and interest rates to rise, and that expectation is already broadly priced into market prices. But if things go up faster than expected then we may see a drop. Of course they could also go up slower than expected too..
🤷🏼♂️
Great info and very well presented!
I'm glad it helped!
Great video. Would you consider making a video on portfolio diversification e.g. optimal exposure to emerging markets or to small-cap stocks etc?
Yes sure!
A very unique video! Great stuff mate
Cheers! Thanks for watching!
Great retoric!
Great video, very thought provoking.
Cheers Paul!
James you are the best financial advsior on youtube by far. thank you for your videos
Hi James, I was thinking to invest on vanguard life strategy 100% , S&P 500 and FTSE global all cap. Is this a good portfolio or am I investing on similar companies. Thanks
Appreciate for shooting a video on such topic with lot of hard work which I can sense.. Although this is my first video of yours and I would love to watch more... Bless you pal
Thank you! I hope you find the rest just as useful!
Great video as usual and very interesting data. All my money is invested in global funds and I am currently getting nervous and worried the markets may fall as they are over priced, especially the US. So my thinking is should I sell sell sell.
If you think you are a better judge of the market than the millions of other people buying in every day then Yes. Otherwise No.
Great videos and this one was rhe best so far. I agree with dollar cost averaging but it's when you have a lump.sum that it's a more difficult decision of when to invest it.
Yes it it, did you video on that ? ua-cam.com/video/lMYflVzok30/v-deo.html
Brilliant James. It was almost like you we reading my thoughts in the last bit. I’ve lost lots of money trying to be greedy in property. A very wealthy wise man once told me to make a bit and move on (a property we were both investing into.). He sold 6 months after purchase for a small profit before they’d even broken ground. I held this particular property far too long right into the crash and then sold pretty much at the bottom 😩. Lesson learned.
It’s interesting how objective and data driven we can be when looking at someone else’s situation. But when it’s our own we’re so biased. But it takes time to learn how to deal with that, as you have the hard way!
Hi James. Your video was so informative. Thank you for doing all this research for our benefit. I love your honesty and transparency 😘👍
You’re welcome Marianela!
@@JamesShack hi James. Another quick question: I want to invest £5k in S&P 500 but not sure which one ie VOO, VUSA etc please enlighten me. Thank you 😘👍🍀
@@marianelavelasquez9696 hi, they are the same ETF but just denominated in difference currencies, read about it here thefipharmacist.com/vusa-vs-voo/
@@JamesShack Wow!!! James, what an amazing article. Thank you - I am so lucky to have found you just when I am about to start my investment journey - you make everything so much easier and I feel more reassured! I guess, VUSA is the one for me i.e. Your base currency is in GBP if you live in the UK. As such, it may be better if you invest in VUSA instead. You are an angel - also, thank you for taking time to respond to me - I really appreciate it:) x
Brilliant James. Another great video... the "inner chimp" is very much something that we all need to contend with! I admire your honesty.
It is, and it’s not something that ever goes away. You just get better at reasoning with it!
You are absolutely Wonderful with your content!
Thank you!
Im planning on buying a house during the next 2 years, and save as much as possible meanwhile. Just sold all my stocks and bonds and im 100% cash now. I cant help thinking about the oppertunity cost. on the other hand with interest rates near zero for over a decade, i expect theres a very big bouble waiting to pop. But man it feels tempting to go aggressive on stocks and reap the rewards from all the money printing..
Two years our from a house purchase you should keep it all in cash or near cash. Just too close !
Lol crypto and cash are a joke.
If u dont own gold or silver you will loose!
@@poepoe2828 lose*
@@dhammer6715 yeah phones say what they want now a days.
@@poepoe2828 The recent plunge (I'm guessing its over) in gold was not especially pleasant. It was more severe for the miners than the metal.
Liked your video 👍. I was beginning to feel like I’m doing the opposite of what I should be doing considering the high likelihood of a market crash. I just started investing my cash in the stock market recently - bad timing it seems with prices at all time highs. I mainly purchased shares in a total market index fund and an ETF. My understanding was that I can buy and hold relatively worry free of such investments, but in this short amount of time I’ve been on this emotional roller coaster... Do I buy more shares, or sell my shares or buy new or better shares of something else while the prices keep rising to new heights. But lately I’ve been wondering if I should really be trying to liquidate my investments into cash in prep for a stock market crash to be on the safe side or should I stay the course and just keep investing. Your data helped and so does the comments you generate. Thanks!
Glad it helped!
This is why 60% of my stocks pay a hefty dividend - my theory is that it'll be much easier for me psychologically to stay in the market if and when a big crash comes and if the bear market continues, DRIPing those dividends into buying more shares at a cheaper price feels good. Most of my non dividend paying stocks are growth stocks that I have very high conviction in for the long term. Keeping 15% cash also helps me sleep well at night when I see major red days. I used to wake up every morning with my heart in my throat afraid of seeing red, with 15% cash I get a diabolical smile.
These are all legitimate reasons for 1) Dividend investing and 2) holding cash. If you can reasonably say that this strategy is going to help you stay the course over a Total Return DCA strategy then it makes sense.
Hello to my strategic twin - I find the gains remarkably consistent thru the ups and downs of prices.
Brilliant video that succinctly sums up the investment psychology.
Glad you enjoyed it!
Great video, especially the last part on psychology. I've never considered that.
It's the biggest part of investing!
Really enjoyed this video. Thanks. Looking at past data is useful, but it's hard to factor in the sea change in demographics on the horizon. The largest ever working generation are retiring and it is inevitable that their investment in stocks will also be curtailed as they look to establish income with less volatility in their portfolio. This is difficult to account for in an analysis such as this but it will have a significant impact. Again, this will likely manifest over years, not necessarily months or days.
I think you are right, aging western populations are going to make a big impact but it's very hard to see what that impact is going to be. Japan experiences strong deflationary pressures, and if interest rates stay low these retirees will be forced to keep money in the stock markets. At the same time they'll be selling down their income each year, so selling foreign assets and buying local currency which will help strengthen the £ and $ further adding to deflationary pressures. But there so many other factors at play it's hard to predict anything.
Great analysis.
Great video - and as I watch this in May ‘22 the NASDAQ is sitting at 25% down from November 21’s highs. Time to buy in everyone!!
Since the current fiat/debt based monetary system creates boom and bust cycles, I believe it's useful to factor in where we currently stand (early or late in a cycle). I would argue, that we're late in that game for stocks, bonds and crypto.
Id say we are early in the crash. You don't notice it because the government is feeding cash into America's biggest Corporations. What happenes when that stops and nobody can afford what they sell? The demand disappears but the supply is still there and we have a deflationary economy? The greatest depression...
Brilliant video James, this channel is by far the most informative and realistic finance channel I’ve found. I’m currently changing my portfolio from what I used to think was a global portfolio to what I now know is actually a (much better) diversified and cheap global market weighted portfolio. Even when jumping between funds with the minimum time out of the market it’s hard to resist the urge to time the change.
Cheers pal! Yes it is, but it gets easier the more you have in the markets. When your contributions make up such a small % of your overall portfolio you just Chuck it straight in. Time out of the market is a risk, so committing to a new fund/strategy as soon as possible is important! Best of luck with it all!
@@JamesShack Cheers for the motivation James! I've just logged in and submitted the last two market orders needed to finish the switch.
Hi James love your videos and the tremendous effort you put in. I think you are the person that has made me realise that it is not all about beating the market. Thank you!
Glad to be of service!
I'm impressed that you managed to film this at night in June. I absolutely cannot speak that coherently past 8PM
Haha, me neither. You should see the outtakes, took about 2 hours to film this!
@@JamesShack Do you prepare a script?
@@pauleohl yep 2000-3000 words each time!
Brilliant video James. Thank you so much for researching the data and creating the video.
My conclusion is to make sure the emergency fund is always topped up and invest the rest in property and equities (I don't like the idea of bonds when interest rates are unlikely to go much lower, but could easily go much higher).
No worries Mike, it was fun doing it!
Great content and great video .. Yes Dollar cost averaging is the best way to go forward with peace of mind ..
Great video James, thanks a lot! Would it be an option to invest in a lower equity/bond ratio now (e.g. Lifestrategy 40/60) and then when the market goes down switch to a higher equity/bond ratio (e.g. Lifestrategy 80/20)...?
Hi Alex, no. you should select a strategy that fits your risk profile and stick with it unless your attitude to risk or requirement to take risk changes . The problem with switching is that you never know when to do it!
Thanks for the reply James! Yes that’s what I thought - will stick to one strategy then and focus less on what the market is doing short-term!
Great video
Many thanks! I put a lump sum in stocks just at the last peak s&p and your vids have reassured me it was the right decision, even if things go pete tong!
Hi Stuart, just stick with you plan. It will get easier over time.
Your very smart ,love it ..
Very interesting! Would you maybe suggest moving that cash into a different investment stream until a crash? Then buy a index fund or other stocks when the crash happens? Great video 👌
Hi Sam, I answered this in another comment,
Great vid. Well done. My advisor says go in. Stay in. Resist emotionally driven moves at all apparent cost. Make the Plan and stick to it. Also.
Do the calc using the chance that you might buy at a -5% of the today price sometime in the future. Anyway excellent video, great explanation!
You are right in every way
Cheers Bruno!
In todays market with 10-15 years window to invest before retirement would you do the same? A lot of gains in the last few months but also a lot of bears predicting a big crash is likely.. would be curious to hear whether you would lump sum with 100k or drip feed and hope for a downturn along the way?
i think we would like to hear your thoughts on put options and call options, in todays market, and what are optimal exp dates? 3 day exp vs 24 mo exp
Again this is trying to time the markets which doesn't work! Just buy great stocks at fair prices and hold.
I have only just found your content, and this is great. This comes back to what Warren Buffett always says - 'Its a case of time in the market and not a case of timing the market'
What’s your background? Watched a few of your videos, keep up the good work
Hi Rob, I was a wealth manager at HSBC Global Asset Management before founding a wealth manager called Octopus Wealth. I’ve been working on the tech side of our business until recently and now I’m a financial planner.
I’m sitting on my cash 💰, but I’m 60 and can’t loose it now, yes when I was in my 20’s I was a risk taker and ending up loosing my home with 3 kids under 3 on a business deal, but loads of time to bounce back, hence the Aston Martin in my drive 😎 great video!
Cheers Chris. I imagine you've planning out what you need in retirement? Just watch out for inflation!
We are living through very unusual times. I'm not impressed by past performance data. I smell a Black Swan scenario approaching. I am comfortable being in cash for the next few months.
So if it doesn't crash you're in?
@@joetyler835 I will begin to creep back in after October if the market hasn't had a major correction. I'll be amazed if that happens, but this entire bull run has been crazy. So who knows.
@@haze1123 I've been DCAing since early this year because I'm expecting a crash myself since January. But seven months in nothing yet. Gonna continue to DCA.
@@joetyler835 I am right there with you. But you are braver (and probably smarter) than I am. I'm not going to do anything until Oct. The market thinks COVID is over. But it's not. A new mutation is popping up every 6 weeks. Flu season may be scary. If there are more lockdowns, that might be the trigger for the market to retreat.
@@haze1123 Same here. I have a lump sum that i need to get invested. I’m looking for either a sharp correction to dump money in or a bear market to dollar cost average my money in the market. Either way I don’t want to wait too long because I do understand that time in the market is more important than timing. The current market circumstances are making this difficult.
Loved the bitcoin story, we all do it,LOL. Thanks,great video
Haha yes indeed, and then you never learn ...
Cheers, Jaminho!
No problemo!
Love all the data in this video. So well put together and engaging. I was worrying I’d made a mistake investing a lump sum recently but I’m feeling much more reassured.
Thank you!
I’m glad it helped!
Today it's not about return ON capital. Today it is about return OF capital.