Not necessarily though there is a fair amount of overlap but that’s not necessarily a negative. Most important thing is to get started and build your income over time to continue investing more as time goes on. I just hit the 7figure mark on my portfolio. 210k - $1m in nineteen months at 43...
I lost a lot chasing individual stocks and I feel pretty stupid for not understanding how investing works. I have a double major in economics but I’ve been trying to make sense of the market. Well done on profits!
Keep it simple, buy things you understand, take some risk but don't try to shoot the lights out. I’m invested in ETFs, equity index funds, and individual stocks and use a CFA. On average, she takes 10% of earnings, but using *Lina Dineikiene's* system makes it much more hands-off. I conservatively follow her recommendations and market entry and exit points, and tbh this makes it fairly simple for me... I am convinced it's not just hard work but smart work :-)
When the founder of the Vanguard asset management company, John Bogle in the US was starting out in the investment business he says he was given some good advice. Nobody knows nothing. And this is true because nobody has a crystal ball, it's all just speculation. Better according to Mr Bogle just buy the whole haystack, buy the whole market and hold it for the long term, stay the course. Keep costs low and be well diversified, buy and hold. This alludes to investing in funds or etfs that track broad market based indexes like ftse all world index etc and sticking to a sensible strategy. Index tracker funds are low cost and well diversified
I simply loved the graph of investment bank predictions verses the actual outcomes. They are so consistently wrong I'm taking that as a sign that things will be a bit rough next year - so will just keep on drip feeding into my global trackers, but maybe have a little punt on US small cap value the UK.
I agree, I'm too heavily focused on the World & US at the moment, so some sort of diversity with other countries would be good. India feels a bit overpriced; China is risky and very dependent on what the CCP say, semiconductors seemed to have slowed down. I'm not sure about the UK, particularly with Labour in charge. I'm never that keen on bonds, particularly when the money markets are giving almost 5% interest.
I retired at age 53 and am now in my early 60s. Many people resisted me because they couldn't understand the idea of not working if you don't have to. I considered my life to be in phases. I worked very hard to achieve what I have now, but in my last years, I owe it to myself to "stop and smell the roses." After I retired, I left the nation and now reside in Latin America. I was able to enjoy my new surroundings and escape from all the bad things that were going on in America. I haven't yet encountered anyone who laments their retirement.
Nice way to retire. For me, I believe retirees who struggle to meet their basic needs are the ones who could not accumulate enough money during their active years to meet their needs. Retirement choices determine a lot of things. My wife and I both spent same number of years in the civil service, she invested through a wealth manager and myself through the 401k. We both still earning after our retirement fund has grown way more than it would have with just the 401(k). Haha.
100% Sir totally agree and well done to you!! I am 63 I "retired" from my work in Aircraft Engineering 17 years ago to live in SE Asia. I have 3 different incomes from property rentals, long-term investments and trading. I do it all myself now after many years of either poor growth or losing money with FAs and Managed Funds. Its now just all ETFs Stocks and a small 10% exposure to Cryptos.
I left the US 31+ years ago. I worked long enough to get a decent amount of US Social Security. I worked in my country of choice for 31 years and have Social Security here. With that, I get free world-class healthcare for life. My US Soc Sec covers my cost of living. I have a very nice lifestyle and don't skimp on anything. I'd be poor in I lived in the Land of the Free. 🤔
The blue line often doesnt exist when youre talking about it, and the yellow line is so small and faint that it's barely distinguishable. Hope you can fix this next time around as it's made this video quite hard to understand at points.
Looking at your predictions - you say UK Germany and US Small cap? What do you mean by this? Should we invest in FTSE 100 UK and DAX? or some other UK Germany ETF? which would be good ones to look at?
don't listen to his advice, it's mostly nonsense. The UK and Germany are cheap because they're stuffed to the gills with antiquated companies that no one wants to buy.
I know what you mean, I always try to report them as "Misinformation" but never know whether UA-cam does anything about it. A lot of them have a similar thread:- 1) I have X amount to invest followed by 2) I recommend this adviser. I wish these large tech companies would invest more in tracking these scammers down and arresting them.
Thank you for your videos. I'm in the US. We've been expensive for a really long time and for a good reason. The amount of wealth creation by the Mag 7 ( or 8) has been unmatched. These companies are sitting on piles of cash and they continue to generate massive cash flows. I sometimes think they act like inflation hedges, US Bonds, etc. rather than growth stocks. When investors get nervous they pile into these companies. It's getting harder and harder to justify these evaluations but Trump typically creates a risk-on environment in the U.S equity markets. I miss my money market income when it was above 5.15% earlier this year.
Love that I can sometimes finish your sentences now... It's like answering a question on University Challenge 😂. After that video (in particular Vanguard's prediction for the UK), I think I'll have a look there now...
Great charts and clear rationale. Your focus on MAG8 technicals ignores their central role as the picks & shovels of the new AI economy. Chinese data is cooked (unaudited) and CEOs frequently disappear. Gold is at record because of hair-trigger geopolitics. (American here.)
Hi @NorthStarPNW picks and shovels is a good analogy. But I think people are overpaying for the picks and shovels at the moment. But it's not like the dot com bubble where most companies were unprofitable as I showed with the earnings forecasts for the Mag 7. Thanks, Ramin.
My main guide for 2025 will be the US 10y-2y chart on FRED. If it inverts and uninverts again; that has historically been a very reliable sign that we're getting a recession. That is; we've already had one invert/uninvert. The second invert/uninvert is what signals a coming recession. And that's when I will be going risk off.
I think there is a case to be made for quality / income stocks ETFs. Those are making over 10% per year (including dividens) and that's a very good return considering whats happening with growth and the mega caps. Sure, ...you are not getting the 20%+ growth return, but also not getting that much risks and volatility and still making some very interesting returns. Also its perfect to be defensive for 2025 and aligned with Vanguard 10 year forecast. I know everyone is different when it comes to money and risk, but that seems very decent return at a more reasonable risk.
Dear Teddy pls have a word with Romin. The colour codes didn't kick in on the corporate bonds section about 12 mins into your laudable video. Keep up the great work and go easy on the biltong.
Successful investing is hard work because it means disciplining your mind to do the opposite of human nature. Buying during a panic, selling during euphoria, and holding on when you are bored and just craving a little action. Investing is 5% intellect and 95% temperament.
Government policy has thrown the future under the bus for decades. The day of judgment is near. I predict an 80% drop in the stock market. Investors will abandon stocks in favor of real estate. There will be no money in banks... You must devise a strategy for survival.
We have been in a depression since 2008, the yield curve has already uninverted, global recession indicators are flashing alarm for well over a year, and absolutely nobody could pull us out of the hell coming regardless of party.
ASHLEY GARNER ABBOTT a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further... She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Excellent share! Curiously inputted Ashley Garner Abbott on the web, spotted her consulting page ranked top, and was able to schedule a call session. I've seen commentaries about advisors, but not one looks this phenomenal.
When the stock market earnings yield is below base rates, it's a historic indicator of an overvalued market. +21:17 I feel that projecting forward the extreme valuations in the US and saying the market looks reasonable, is bizarre. History has demonstrated that market crashes are indiscriminate; the good go down with the bad. There are no safe sectors; they all lose money. The finance industry claims that there are safe sectors because it's desperate to hang on to peoples money, for the fee income.
The FTSE RAFI index seems like a good way to avoid market concentration and an AI bubble collapse - esp the US 1000 as an alt to S&P 500. I don’t see any videos about FTSE RAFI, what is your take? Is it worth buying this as well as Developed Europe/Asia etc instead of my MSCI World tracker?
What if the S&P500 would benefit from productivity increases delivered by AI, adopted by large caps to reduce internal bureaucracy (in a way like Amazon just announced) - shouldn't this unlock further growth, which isn't considered in the forecasts?
Hi im confused, you are saying the tech stocks are expensive (as per vanguard) but you also expect a potentially good year in the conclusion. Can you lay out further what you mean by this?
I agree with your analysis Ramin (blue ). Most likely scenario in my mind will be planned and targeted tariffs by Trump Admin as a tool for negotiation rather than a blanket rollout across sectors which would be more inflationary if done in the heavy handed manner predicted by media. Very good point you make regarding the Mag 7 and the analyst forecast patterns...liking the idea of US small caps....especially when considering the rhetoric from team Trump regarding inward investment and past over-reliance on global supply chains.
Interesting seeing DM government bonds for both "red" and "blue" scenarios, but you also mention that the Fed could raise rates - which is a negative for government bonds, the longer the duration - the worse the effect.
Commodity futures will make a return if we get supply shocks from a trade war. I'm thinking 20% in an optimised roll yield ETP to hedge a 60-20 portfolio.
Interesting ideas. Would be interesting to see what the expensiveness chart looks like when adjusted for M2. Might look like your house price adjusted for inflation in a previous video?
Brilliant video. I check in now and then on this channel, and to me this is your best video yet. Top of your game. Thanks for the informative content ⭐👏
@Pensioncraft I'll probably take a lumped approach: world share index, aggregate bond index, but interesting to see where better returns are more likely to come from. After about 8 years of stock picking, anything that sounds like picking winners seems either a genius or fool's errand.
wage growth trails to try (and usually fail) to keep up with product and service inflation from corporate profiteering. wage growth is good for an economy as 'normal' people have more to spend, which is why UK economy has stalled for 15 years
Great companies = expensive markets. The US has superior quality capital markets and companies. Been hearing international was going to outperform every year for the past decade.
US has outperformed international in just under 55% of rolling decades. Nobody knows if it will outperform over the next 5, 10 or 30 years. Pretty much a toss up.
@@BaileyMxX muh recency bias?!! Did I not say I’d always held international? I do think some of this dogmatic “recency bias” talk occludes the fact that developed foreign markets are just qualitatively different and very likely cheap and underperforming for those reasons. Sure there will be mean reversion at some point, so I stay diversified, but these simplistic statements don’t address the quality of the U.S. market vs, say, Europe…which is struggling.
it's not unusual for gold to out perform the nasdaq, look at the first 12 years of this century, gold CAGR of 14% with Large Cap Growth going nowhere. In fact gold is still ahead of Large Cap Growth this century.
Nice insight - thanks for sharing. I still have a large chunk in developed markets ETF but I'm reducing my S&P500 and North America ETFs and buying some more UK to hope for growth. I might buy a bit of Germany and Japan too. Avoiding China though as i got bitten during the recent pump and dump as their government seems to have a lot of control on the markets.
In my opinion, the best thing to do would be to avoid such speculation and just buy a global cap-weight index fund. No one knows what's really going to happen in the next decade, neither you, nor me, nor Ramin, nor Vanguard. Vanguard has been making these forecasts of US underperformance for a few years now, and the S&P 500 is up by over 30% in the last 12 months and by an average of almost 19% a year over the past 5 years.
I bought a uk index tracker a few months back, but I've kept my usa exposure. Whatever the noise is saying, I do the complete opposite. Time in the market is better than timing the market, which is pretty impossible.
@ba8898 just buy a cheap global index fund and 19:41 dca monthly what you can reasonably afford to invest.all bs repetitive regurgitating speculative unnecessary youtubers espousing info
Very useful information. I am 200% up on my Fidelity India Focus fund. I am now wondering if that is a bubble as opposed to genuine productivity gains.
The most reliable chart seems to be that of the analysts miscalculations. So I fear they will be wrong again as has been historically the case. The market does exactly the opposite of what they forcast.
@@PhillipEaton It was a downturn in the tech sector in 2022 largely down to rising interest rates, economic uncertainty and a general feeling that tech stocks were overvalued. Looking back this was an amazing buying opportunity!
Sounds like sound advice. I’m going to keep my 70-30 mix. My personal opinion is AI might be a bumpy ride but I’m going to keep adding with any excess money from my salary. I sold my gold end of 2023 which was the one low point for what has otherwise been a good year. Thanks for your informative videos 😊
"The Comedy Segment" 🤣 Well, your 2025 market outlook clashes with some key investment decisions have being taking recently, most notable re bonds. Time to rethink my overall approach.
It will be interesting to see what these tariffs actually do. Most major US companies are global companies and have significant manufacturing outside of the US. Apple for example design their computers in the US but they are made in China. Other companies like the American car companies for example manufacture both in the US and around the world. Thus it is unlikely tariffs and counter tariffs will influence them as much as it would if they did everything in the US. It may affect US sales if they only manufacture outside the US or if there is no US manufacturer of a similar product (ie a competitor who could offer a cheaper tariff free product to the US market) would likely only drive inflation as there would be nothing to motivate these companies to setup new manufacturing in the US which will cost them money and be inefficient since it will only support the US market. But it will certainly hurt smaller American companies that are unable to afford to setup manufacturing sites both inside and outside the US.
i’m too lazy to keep switching to the latest fads. for my main pension pot, i just invest 30% uk equity, 60% developed world ex-uk equity and 10% emerging market equity. costs are minimal and no switching costs! i have a small pot for dabbling in stock picks. i’m slowly liquidating them as i plan to move them to something simpler to just earn interest (instead of paying tax wrapper fees, platform fees, dealing charges, annual management charges). it seems like everyone wants a piece of my cake and i want to enjoy it without all the’get rich quick’ spiel’. i am rich enough to say ….
OK, I looked at this video again, I do see commodities on a graph by the end, but would've preferred you'd cover it separately, commodities can be outliers in terms of correlation in difficult times, like in 2021-2022.
It would be fun to see who the various brokers were. For most of my professional life I was an analyst at a broker or investment bank and during those 30 years or so, at trhe institutions I worked at, I came across just 2 economists whose forecasts I considered reliable and perhaps 1 stragetist. I never worked at Goldman but I always felt that regardless of compliance rules their analysts were somewhat constrained in what they could say, due to the extent of the Bank's corporate and government work. It was often easier for them to say nothing. So I have never really paid much attention to their forecasts apart from having the odd chuckle. You have to look at the evidence for yourself in deciding what to invest in, yes US stocks are expensive but the business case for them remains strong in contrast say to the UK where they are undoubtedly cheap but the business case for many may well be getting weaker. Gold is another strange one, it has diverged from Oil and slightly from Silver and its continued strength would suggest markets are scepitcal on whether inflation has been beaten or not. I think your view on gold is pretty much spot on.
This morning I worked out that gold has just about kept up with the house my parents bought in 1968. In contrast the BoE inflation figures are a complete joke and out by a factor of seven.
Sorry I think this could have been a tad more helpful for younger viewers to explain the process changing platform. On how best to do it. The effects of selling down your index fund ie halt the process of compounding. Then to transferring the funds. And restarting the process of drip feed or lum sum into the new account. Best practices etc 👍 plus £4 a month as a percentage compared to other platforms etc so they can understand whether it's right for them I would have liked to hear your honest opinion on how shady this is from their low cost provider mentality, will this spark an incentive from HL and others to do the same - DIY investors are now SAAS cash cows! 😂 but I suppose they're a potential sponsor so staying neutral is probably wise 😅
I tried to reply to you but UA-cam removed my comment. It's a risky area to go into unless you use a tracker through a reputable provider. However, they tend to charge a high commission.
Excellent video again. As someone coming up to retirement in a few years, I will be reinvesting any dividends in my portfolio into a mm fund. Also any new monies will be added to mm funds. I do not need to draw on these portfolios for several years yet, so a natural progressive rebalancing seems better than speculating what the markets will do and selling equities now. What do you think ?
Ramin, you forgot to add an important aspect of the EU future commercial relationship with South America. The Mercosul agreement. It could help the block ease its dependency on China and boost strategic sectors in the case of a price war with US/China. Any comments?
The UK outlook you used is from 2023-2024 to mid year. So before the budget. I take it you are not worried about a Rachel Reeves induced UK recession. US forecast from before the US election. 🤨
Such as shame that International Equity Funds (Global ex US) seem only to be marketed in the US. As a UK investor I can buy hundreds of different active or passive Global Equity Funds, but all have 60 to 70% in US. If I want Global equity ex Us I have to go buy a European Fund, Asia Fund, Em Fund etc etc, when in reality a good International Fund available in the UK would be ideal.
Is it that big a problem? In the Noughties Egg did a thing where your £3000 ISA allowance was split between China, the USA, the FTSE, and Tech. China was great for years while not surprisingly Tech turned out to be a complete disaster.
I was there last week but had no idea about the finances. Even compared to ten years ago things seem to be getting modernised with new roads, new buildings, and since last year a load of onshore wind turbines.
Well I’m selling US equities down to 25% of my portfolio, which will change from growth to mainly consumer staples. Moving forward, stocks total 50%. Uk and emerging markets to make up the other 25%. Bonds under two years, three month us treasuries and money market funds for me. It’s hard selling stocks when they are booming, but the end of the year is a good time to change direction.
USA and India are expensive for good reason. We are headed into an era of geopolitical uncertainty. Those two countries have great demographics, food independence, strong military, stable political system and good access to raw materials.
How is India's military strong and even comparable to the US? Same question for China too, India and China have comparably little real and modern military experience aside from border clashes and small insurgency fighting. Russia also supposedly had strong military in 2021, but in 2024 even before mentioned India has cancelled many arms orders from Russia, the performance of Russian arms and military tactics is visible to anyone in Ukraine and looks bad.
I would argue that country valuation is irrelevant and pointless. Any company that becomes big enough to be worth investing in is global wherever it happens, almost by chance, to be based. For example a few years ago Unilever nearly moved from UK to Netherlands. Still the same company with the same result but if youd invested in UK and they had moved, well that's a problem assuming they did well. . If there was an actual uk or french company that was uk or france only then its growth would be very limited. Either that or become a very selective stock picker, pick greggs 20 years ago or fever tree etc if you were smart enough. but just buying a country fund seems irrational to me. I could understand buying a sector, lets say advertising or finance or renewables or oil, pick your own but these all cover multiple regions
@@RogerYeahmonTrue - and for that to happen, we need a government to create the right environment. The current govt seems to be doing all it can to destroy the economy.
These sort of videos are absolutely fantastic, thank you! I really liked the graph showing the S&P 500 and the "expert" forecasts 😂
I have a 3 fund portfolio but I have finally decided to invest in ETFs, alongside. I am looking at SCHD, VOO, and XLK OR SCHG.
Great picks! I like XLK and SCHD equally!
@@ShelleyfromCali thank you! Actually would it be silly to have both?
Not necessarily though there is a fair amount of overlap but that’s not necessarily a negative. Most important thing is to get started and build your income over time to continue investing more as time goes on. I just hit the 7figure mark on my portfolio. 210k - $1m in nineteen months at 43...
I lost a lot chasing individual stocks and I feel pretty stupid for not understanding how investing works. I have a double major in economics but I’ve been trying to make sense of the market. Well done on profits!
Keep it simple, buy things you understand, take some risk but don't try to shoot the lights out. I’m invested in ETFs, equity index funds, and individual stocks and use a CFA. On average, she takes 10% of earnings, but using *Lina Dineikiene's* system makes it much more hands-off. I conservatively follow her recommendations and market entry and exit points, and tbh this makes it fairly simple for me... I am convinced it's not just hard work but smart work :-)
When the founder of the Vanguard asset management company, John Bogle in the US was starting out in the investment business he says he was given some good advice. Nobody knows nothing. And this is true because nobody has a crystal ball, it's all just speculation. Better according to Mr Bogle just buy the whole haystack, buy the whole market and hold it for the long term, stay the course. Keep costs low and be well diversified, buy and hold. This alludes to investing in funds or etfs that track broad market based indexes like ftse all world index etc and sticking to a sensible strategy. Index tracker funds are low cost and well diversified
Excellent video, very well presented and clear for all to understand.
Glad it was helpful! @marcusbrutus1999
I simply loved the graph of investment bank predictions verses the actual outcomes. They are so consistently wrong I'm taking that as a sign that things will be a bit rough next year - so will just keep on drip feeding into my global trackers, but maybe have a little punt on US small cap value the UK.
Would be really interested to see what you now predict to be the ideal 3 -5 ETF Fund Portfolio
I agree, I'm too heavily focused on the World & US at the moment, so some sort of diversity with other countries would be good. India feels a bit overpriced; China is risky and very dependent on what the CCP say, semiconductors seemed to have slowed down. I'm not sure about the UK, particularly with Labour in charge. I'm never that keen on bonds, particularly when the money markets are giving almost 5% interest.
I retired at age 53 and am now in my early 60s. Many people resisted me because they couldn't understand the idea of not working if you don't have to. I considered my life to be in phases. I worked very hard to achieve what I have now, but in my last years, I owe it to myself to "stop and smell the roses." After I retired, I left the nation and now reside in Latin America. I was able to enjoy my new surroundings and escape from all the bad things that were going on in America. I haven't yet encountered anyone who laments their retirement.
Nice way to retire. For me, I believe retirees who struggle to meet their basic needs are the ones who could not accumulate enough money during their active years to meet their needs. Retirement choices determine a lot of things. My wife and I both spent same number of years in the civil service, she invested through a wealth manager and myself through the 401k. We both still earning after our retirement fund has grown way more than it would have with just the 401(k). Haha.
100% Sir totally agree and well done to you!!
I am 63 I "retired" from my work in Aircraft Engineering 17 years ago to live in SE Asia. I have 3 different incomes from property rentals, long-term investments and trading.
I do it all myself now after many years of either poor growth or losing money with FAs and Managed Funds. Its now just all ETFs Stocks and a small 10% exposure to Cryptos.
I left the US 31+ years ago. I worked long enough to get a decent amount of US Social Security. I worked in my country of choice for 31 years and have Social Security here. With that, I get free world-class healthcare for life. My US Soc Sec covers my cost of living. I have a very nice lifestyle and don't skimp on anything. I'd be poor in I lived in the Land of the Free. 🤔
The blue line often doesnt exist when youre talking about it, and the yellow line is so small and faint that it's barely distinguishable. Hope you can fix this next time around as it's made this video quite hard to understand at points.
Glad I'm not the only one wondering about blue lines.
Looking at your predictions - you say UK Germany and US Small cap? What do you mean by this? Should we invest in FTSE 100 UK and DAX? or some other UK Germany ETF? which would be good ones to look at?
don't listen to his advice, it's mostly nonsense. The UK and Germany are cheap because they're stuffed to the gills with antiquated companies that no one wants to buy.
Christ these bots are out of control
Yeh the channel creators dont seem to do much about it and neither do you tube
The channel creators are constantly battling them, trust me.
Is it maybe just one bot? Almost always seems to involve a female advisor with a middle name
I know what you mean, I always try to report them as "Misinformation" but never know whether UA-cam does anything about it. A lot of them have a similar thread:- 1) I have X amount to invest followed by 2) I recommend this adviser. I wish these large tech companies would invest more in tracking these scammers down and arresting them.
@ I use spam as classification.
I’m not looking to access my account for 30 years so I’m happy to chuck money into a global index fund
Great video ramin, loved the last chart with the analysts forecasts 😂
Glad you enjoyed! @Ganok
Thank you for your videos. I'm in the US. We've been expensive for a really long time and for a good reason. The amount of wealth creation by the Mag 7 ( or 8) has been unmatched. These companies are sitting on piles of cash and they continue to generate massive cash flows. I sometimes think they act like inflation hedges, US Bonds, etc. rather than growth stocks. When investors get nervous they pile into these companies. It's getting harder and harder to justify these evaluations but Trump typically creates a risk-on environment in the U.S equity markets. I miss my money market income when it was above 5.15% earlier this year.
global de-dollarisation is in full swing.. give it 5 years and external demand for US assets will at least half of what it is now.
Love that I can sometimes finish your sentences now... It's like answering a question on University Challenge 😂. After that video (in particular Vanguard's prediction for the UK), I think I'll have a look there now...
thanks for the video. i learned a lot from it
So pleased you found it helpful @theAmateurInvestorstory
Great charts and clear rationale. Your focus on MAG8 technicals ignores their central role as the picks & shovels of the new AI economy. Chinese data is cooked (unaudited) and CEOs frequently disappear. Gold is at record because of hair-trigger geopolitics. (American here.)
Hi @NorthStarPNW picks and shovels is a good analogy. But I think people are overpaying for the picks and shovels at the moment. But it's not like the dot com bubble where most companies were unprofitable as I showed with the earnings forecasts for the Mag 7. Thanks, Ramin.
very useful and informative video. top job. thk u. The layout of the graph for the analysts forecast was v cleverly done. not seen that layout before
Glad it was helpful @David_F579
My main guide for 2025 will be the US 10y-2y chart on FRED. If it inverts and uninverts again; that has historically been a very reliable sign that we're getting a recession. That is; we've already had one invert/uninvert. The second invert/uninvert is what signals a coming recession. And that's when I will be going risk off.
Very informative to normal people
Still can't let go of my emerging markets ETF...
I think there is a case to be made for quality / income stocks ETFs. Those are making over 10% per year (including dividens) and that's a very good return considering whats happening with growth and the mega caps. Sure, ...you are not getting the 20%+ growth return, but also not getting that much risks and volatility and still making some very interesting returns. Also its perfect to be defensive for 2025 and aligned with Vanguard 10 year forecast. I know everyone is different when it comes to money and risk, but that seems very decent return at a more reasonable risk.
How come you don't mention Bitcoin, in regards of the next year/decade?
He won't talk about it 😂
Face ripping volatility doesn't bode well with the demographic for this channel
Dear Teddy pls have a word with Romin. The colour codes didn't kick in on the corporate bonds section about 12 mins into your laudable video.
Keep up the great work and go easy on the biltong.
Successful investing is hard work because it means disciplining your mind to do the opposite of human nature. Buying during a panic, selling during euphoria, and holding on when you are bored and just craving a little action. Investing is 5% intellect and 95% temperament.
Government policy has thrown the future under the bus for decades. The day of judgment is near. I predict an 80% drop in the stock market. Investors will abandon stocks in favor of real estate. There will be no money in banks... You must devise a strategy for survival.
We have been in a depression since 2008, the yield curve has already uninverted, global recession indicators are flashing alarm for well over a year, and absolutely nobody could pull us out of the hell coming regardless of party.
ASHLEY GARNER ABBOTT a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further... She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Excellent share! Curiously inputted Ashley Garner Abbott on the web, spotted her consulting page ranked top, and was able to schedule a call session. I've seen commentaries about advisors, but not one looks this phenomenal.
When the stock market earnings yield is below base rates, it's a historic indicator of an overvalued market.
+21:17 I feel that projecting forward the extreme valuations in the US and saying the market looks reasonable, is bizarre.
History has demonstrated that market crashes are indiscriminate; the good go down with the bad. There are no safe sectors; they all lose money. The finance industry claims that there are safe sectors because it's desperate to hang on to peoples money, for the fee income.
Curious why Raman seems to respect Vanguard predictions so much . Arent they as bad a predicting as other analysts?
Because it fits the thesis of his video. Lets be realistic all analysts are generally very unaccurate with their predictions.
for new investors one etf recommendation of your"s is still valid? (concerning about US valuations)
I am optimistic about the US economy but slightly worried about valuation.
What is the forwardlooking productivity growth assumptions in these models?
5:00 Where did u get the data for this country comparison?
The FTSE RAFI index seems like a good way to avoid market concentration and an AI bubble collapse - esp the US 1000 as an alt to S&P 500. I don’t see any videos about FTSE RAFI, what is your take? Is it worth buying this as well as Developed Europe/Asia etc instead of my MSCI World tracker?
What if the S&P500 would benefit from productivity increases delivered by AI, adopted by large caps to reduce internal bureaucracy (in a way like Amazon just announced) - shouldn't this unlock further growth, which isn't considered in the forecasts?
Is the Equities, Bonds, Bills statistic, without reinvesting the dividents?
“Comedy segment” 😂
Hi im confused, you are saying the tech stocks are expensive (as per vanguard) but you also expect a potentially good year in the conclusion.
Can you lay out further what you mean by this?
The market is bigger than just tech stocks. In that chart energy stocks looked to be good value.
@MrDuncl I believe he says tech stocks will continue to lead though
What platforms can you buy gold on ?
I use Trading 212 to buy SGLN
Most of them. I have both Gold Bullion Securities and IShares Physical Gold. DYOR others are available and might be better value.
I agree with your analysis Ramin (blue ). Most likely scenario in my mind will be planned and targeted tariffs by Trump Admin as a tool for negotiation rather than a blanket rollout across sectors which would be more inflationary if done in the heavy handed manner predicted by media. Very good point you make regarding the Mag 7 and the analyst forecast patterns...liking the idea of US small caps....especially when considering the rhetoric from team Trump regarding inward investment and past over-reliance on global supply chains.
Interesting seeing DM government bonds for both "red" and "blue" scenarios, but you also mention that the Fed could raise rates - which is a negative for government bonds, the longer the duration - the worse the effect.
Great video, as always, Japan looks good, may be?
19:38 seems like the thing to do is look at the forecasts of the experts - and then bet on the opposite?
What are some recommendations for a global fund ex. US for UK investors?
There's an article about this in Money Week issue 6 Dec.
Commodity futures will make a return if we get supply shocks from a trade war. I'm thinking 20% in an optimised roll yield ETP to hedge a 60-20 portfolio.
"Here's a blue line"
Where?
Interesting ideas. Would be interesting to see what the expensiveness chart looks like when adjusted for M2. Might look like your house price adjusted for inflation in a previous video?
SP500 adjusted for inflation is not pretty either
Brilliant video. I check in now and then on this channel, and to me this is your best video yet. Top of your game. Thanks for the informative content ⭐👏
Glad you enjoyed it @RowanGontier
@Pensioncraft I'll probably take a lumped approach: world share index, aggregate bond index, but interesting to see where better returns are more likely to come from. After about 8 years of stock picking, anything that sounds like picking winners seems either a genius or fool's errand.
sir i am from sri lanka...can i access the us or uk stock market using vanguard platform?
Could you please explain the Great Melt Up ?
wage growth trails to try (and usually fail) to keep up with product and service inflation from corporate profiteering.
wage growth is good for an economy as 'normal' people have more to spend, which is why UK economy has stalled for 15 years
Great companies = expensive markets. The US has superior quality capital markets and companies. Been hearing international was going to outperform every year for the past decade.
US has outperformed international in just under 55% of rolling decades. Nobody knows if it will outperform over the next 5, 10 or 30 years. Pretty much a toss up.
Recency bias.
@@MagicNash89 yeah that’s what keeps me holding about 20% international…been waiting for this recency to change lol
Literally the definition of recency bias. Do some research on historic returns.
@@BaileyMxX muh recency bias?!! Did I not say I’d always held international? I do think some
of this dogmatic “recency bias” talk occludes the fact that developed foreign markets are just qualitatively different and very likely cheap and underperforming for those reasons. Sure there will be mean reversion at some point, so I stay diversified, but these simplistic statements don’t address the quality of the U.S. market vs, say, Europe…which is struggling.
TSLA and PLTR, job done!
This always happens during an inflated bubble and these people always get burnt looking 5 years out.
Thank You.
You're welcome @DPTrainor1
it's not unusual for gold to out perform the nasdaq, look at the first 12 years of this century, gold CAGR of 14% with Large Cap Growth going nowhere. In fact gold is still ahead of Large Cap Growth this century.
Just recently joining in on the fun with the XAI401K gang. Been liking the content, good job ☕️
Cannot see the colors of the line is it me or everyone else?
5:24 why is Russia all the way on the Right but no valuation figure?
Nice insight - thanks for sharing. I still have a large chunk in developed markets ETF but I'm reducing my S&P500 and North America ETFs and buying some more UK to hope for growth. I might buy a bit of Germany and Japan too. Avoiding China though as i got bitten during the recent pump and dump as their government seems to have a lot of control on the markets.
What are you thinking of? I quite like the look of LGUK, TER of 0.05%
In my opinion, the best thing to do would be to avoid such speculation and just buy a global cap-weight index fund. No one knows what's really going to happen in the next decade, neither you, nor me, nor Ramin, nor Vanguard. Vanguard has been making these forecasts of US underperformance for a few years now, and the S&P 500 is up by over 30% in the last 12 months and by an average of almost 19% a year over the past 5 years.
I bought a uk index tracker a few months back, but I've kept my usa exposure. Whatever the noise is saying, I do the complete opposite. Time in the market is better than timing the market, which is pretty impossible.
@ba8898 just buy a cheap global index fund and 19:41 dca monthly what you can reasonably afford to invest.all bs repetitive regurgitating speculative unnecessary youtubers espousing info
Could you do one on renewable energy stocks!
Very useful information. I am 200% up on my Fidelity India Focus fund. I am now wondering if that is a bubble as opposed to genuine productivity gains.
Glad you found this video helpful @MrDuncl
"So now for the comedy segment; let's turn to the analyst forecasts...".
Damn, Ramin woke up today and chose to be savage. 💀
I think savvy is the word you're looking for 😊
Analyst forecasts? My labrador can eat a pencil and paper then throw up a better result (evil grin!)
That was the best comedy I've seen in years 😂
They all do it wrong, the forecasts should be done by reading coffee grounds and they do it by reading tea leaves.
Wondering why the US real estate sector has such a high PE ratio?
The most reliable chart seems to be that of the analysts miscalculations. So I fear they will be wrong again as has been historically the case. The market does exactly the opposite of what they forcast.
What is the "Tech Rec" @19:12?
Tech wreck.
@ridethelakes Thanks 👍 What is the "Tech Wreck". I feel I should know this but...
@@PhillipEaton It was a downturn in the tech sector in 2022 largely down to rising interest rates, economic uncertainty and a general feeling that tech stocks were overvalued. Looking back this was an amazing buying opportunity!
Sounds like sound advice. I’m going to keep my 70-30 mix. My personal opinion is AI might be a bumpy ride but I’m going to keep adding with any excess money from my salary. I sold my gold end of 2023 which was the one low point for what has otherwise been a good year. Thanks for your informative videos 😊
no-one saw this 2024 gold rally coming though - was completely uncharacteristic..
"The Comedy Segment" 🤣 Well, your 2025 market outlook clashes with some key investment decisions have being taking recently, most notable re bonds. Time to rethink my overall approach.
It will be interesting to see what these tariffs actually do. Most major US companies are global companies and have significant manufacturing outside of the US. Apple for example design their computers in the US but they are made in China. Other companies like the American car companies for example manufacture both in the US and around the world. Thus it is unlikely tariffs and counter tariffs will influence them as much as it would if they did everything in the US. It may affect US sales if they only manufacture outside the US or if there is no US manufacturer of a similar product (ie a competitor who could offer a cheaper tariff free product to the US market) would likely only drive inflation as there would be nothing to motivate these companies to setup new manufacturing in the US which will cost them money and be inefficient since it will only support the US market. But it will certainly hurt smaller American companies that are unable to afford to setup manufacturing sites both inside and outside the US.
What would be the optimal allocation between these regions?
USA
Europe ex UK
UK
EM ex China
China
Japan
Market cap weight
doesn't matter, market optimizes away anything of value
i’m too lazy to keep switching to the latest fads. for my main pension pot, i just invest 30% uk equity, 60% developed world ex-uk equity and 10% emerging market equity. costs are minimal and no switching costs!
i have a small pot for dabbling in stock picks. i’m slowly liquidating them as i plan to move them to something simpler to just earn interest (instead of paying tax wrapper fees, platform fees, dealing charges, annual management charges). it seems like everyone wants a piece of my cake and i want to enjoy it without all the’get rich quick’ spiel’. i am rich enough to say ….
YOLO'ing your life savings into Nvidia should get about 10% ROI per year
I recommend everyone to find the book titled The Secret Doctrine of Wealth, it changed my life.
this book is goated, ty for share
No. Just invest in S&P 500, consistently. It's that simple.
Scam
@@JohnSmith-d8o What is?
Scam artist
No commodities?
OK, I looked at this video again, I do see commodities on a graph by the end, but would've preferred you'd cover it separately, commodities can be outliers in terms of correlation in difficult times, like in 2021-2022.
2025 forecasts. 😊 The comedy segment indeed.
It would be fun to see who the various brokers were. For most of my professional life I was an analyst at a broker or investment bank and during those 30 years or so, at trhe institutions I worked at, I came across just 2 economists whose forecasts I considered reliable and perhaps 1 stragetist. I never worked at Goldman but I always felt that regardless of compliance rules their analysts were somewhat constrained in what they could say, due to the extent of the Bank's corporate and government work. It was often easier for them to say nothing. So I have never really paid much attention to their forecasts apart from having the odd chuckle.
You have to look at the evidence for yourself in deciding what to invest in, yes US stocks are expensive but the business case for them remains strong in contrast say to the UK where they are undoubtedly cheap but the business case for many may well be getting weaker. Gold is another strange one, it has diverged from Oil and slightly from Silver and its continued strength would suggest markets are scepitcal on whether inflation has been beaten or not. I think your view on gold is pretty much spot on.
This morning I worked out that gold has just about kept up with the house my parents bought in 1968. In contrast the BoE inflation figures are a complete joke and out by a factor of seven.
Sorry I think this could have been a tad more helpful for younger viewers to explain the process changing platform. On how best to do it. The effects of selling down your index fund ie halt the process of compounding. Then to transferring the funds. And restarting the process of drip feed or lum sum into the new account. Best practices etc 👍 plus £4 a month as a percentage compared to other platforms etc so they can understand whether it's right for them
I would have liked to hear your honest opinion on how shady this is from their low cost provider mentality, will this spark an incentive from HL and others to do the same - DIY investors are now SAAS cash cows! 😂 but I suppose they're a potential sponsor so staying neutral is probably wise 😅
Wow, this analysis on US market valuations is eye-opening! 📊 Do you think we're heading toward a market correction soon? 🤔
That was a really good piece, thank you.
Glad you liked it @HectorHughMunro
No mention of Bitcoin. Not even a 1% allocation. Bad advice.
@jabberwockytdi8901 true. But Bitcoin is not crypto.
In short. Take each asset and toss a coin. Heads you buy and tails you don’t. Of the winners select 8 at random. Your welcome
I bet you £10 that US growth stocks will outperform every other asset class you have mentioned in this decade as well.
Invest .... in yourself 🤯
Whats your thought on investing in BitCoin? As its now backed by big institutions is it worth brip feeding into BitCoin?
I tried to reply to you but UA-cam removed my comment. It's a risky area to go into unless you use a tracker through a reputable provider. However, they tend to charge a high commission.
VOO and chill
The American population is obsessed with stock markets in comparison to others hence why its companies market caps are so large.
What does brisque mean? 3:10
Quickly.
Brisk = vite. Briskly = vitement.
Excellent video again.
As someone coming up to retirement in a few years, I will be reinvesting any dividends in my portfolio into a mm fund.
Also any new monies will be added to mm funds. I do not need to draw on these portfolios for several years yet, so a natural progressive rebalancing seems better than speculating what the markets will do and selling equities
now. What do you think ?
Ramin, you forgot to add an important aspect of the EU future commercial relationship with South America. The Mercosul agreement. It could help the block ease its dependency on China and boost strategic sectors in the case of a price war with US/China. Any comments?
The last 5months has been a celebration for me, having a good advisor is the best thing that can happen to any investor.
The UK outlook you used is from 2023-2024 to mid year. So before the budget. I take it you are not worried about a Rachel Reeves induced UK recession. US forecast from before the US election. 🤨
S&P 500
Next
Such as shame that International Equity Funds (Global ex US) seem only to be marketed in the US. As a UK investor I can buy hundreds of different active or passive Global Equity Funds, but all have 60 to 70% in US. If I want Global equity ex Us I have to go buy a European Fund, Asia Fund, Em Fund etc etc, when in reality a good International Fund available in the UK would be ideal.
Is it that big a problem? In the Noughties Egg did a thing where your £3000 ISA allowance was split between China, the USA, the FTSE, and Tech. China was great for years while not surprisingly Tech turned out to be a complete disaster.
Outside of US, none has such bigger and profitable companies, uk is cheap for a reason, most of the company over there are a disaster!
Poland... All in
I was there last week but had no idea about the finances. Even compared to ten years ago things seem to be getting modernised with new roads, new buildings, and since last year a load of onshore wind turbines.
Well I’m selling US equities down to 25% of my portfolio, which will change from growth to mainly consumer staples. Moving forward, stocks total 50%.
Uk and emerging markets to make up the other 25%. Bonds under two years, three month us treasuries and money market funds for me.
It’s hard selling stocks when they are booming, but the end of the year is a good time to change direction.
USA and India are expensive for good reason.
We are headed into an era of geopolitical uncertainty.
Those two countries have great demographics, food independence, strong military, stable political system and good access to raw materials.
Very true
How is India's military strong and even comparable to the US? Same question for China too, India and China have comparably little real and modern military experience aside from border clashes and small insurgency fighting. Russia also supposedly had strong military in 2021, but in 2024 even before mentioned India has cancelled many arms orders from Russia, the performance of Russian arms and military tactics is visible to anyone in Ukraine and looks bad.
@@MagicNash89same can be said about US and EU , when did they last actually win a war 😂
Lol. America never won a war since 1945. Battered in Vietnam and lost to goat herders in Afghanistan. 😂😂😂
I would argue that country valuation is irrelevant and pointless. Any company that becomes big enough to be worth investing in is global wherever it happens, almost by chance, to be based. For example a few years ago Unilever nearly moved from UK to Netherlands. Still the same company with the same result but if youd invested in UK and they had moved, well that's a problem assuming they did well.
. If there was an actual uk or french company that was uk or france only then its growth would be very limited. Either that or become a very selective stock picker, pick greggs 20 years ago or fever tree etc if you were smart enough. but just buying a country fund seems irrational to me. I could understand buying a sector, lets say advertising or finance or renewables or oil, pick your own but these all cover multiple regions
US inflation of 1-2 % over the next 10 years doesn’t seem likely.
Please invest in the uk. We need all the help we can get 😂
YES! ishares IUKD ETF to the moooooon!!!! 🤣
I have FTSE100, It's dividend is abysmal
@@christopherellis2663 it's basically charity work when investing in the UK
true.. but we also need people to innovate, start businesses and create demand for positive inflows of capital..
@@RogerYeahmonTrue - and for that to happen, we need a government to create the right environment. The current govt seems to be doing all it can to destroy the economy.
Find out what Cathie Wood isn’t investing in and then buy them big.
Also i am sure you have underperformed by not investing in the US market
No mention of crypto? Why?
Healthcare is undervalued. Older millennials are in their 40s now. Healthcare and pharma demand will rise.
Hope so. I'm holding a health and pharma as a satellite fund, together with utilies and gold.
But Gen Z are being healthier and will require less healthcare.