Moneyball Clinic: SEVILLA | Team, Tactic & Transfer Guide | FM24
Вставка
- Опубліковано 31 січ 2024
- In real life, things look pretty bleak for Sevilla, but in FM that's not the case. Consistently finishing between 5th and 7th, I look at how we can use data to find the marginal gains to get them into the Champions League for the following season.
MONEYBALL CLINIC
A team guide series, using a statistic-led approach to squad assessment, tactic building and recruitment.
FEEDBACK
If you want to leave feedback, but rather it was kept anonymous, you can do so via this form: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FA...
METHODOLOGY
I performed 10 full detail simulations of the Top 30 leagues to create a single database to give me insight into player and team performances under the current Match Engine. Set up in real world mode, with the first transfer window disabled. Teams were able to make transfers in January, allowing us to get a sense of what the AI considers each team's areas of weakness.
All player statistics were exported for players in active leagues who played over 900 minutes, aggregated and then standardised to per 90 metrics. All player recommendedations will come from this pool.
League results were similarly exported, and averaged out to help give a high level overview of team performance, which will instruct us on the state of teams at the start of the game and provide a baseline for us to measure against. I'll be using the save file from the season that is the closest representation of a team's average performance to then drill further into specific details.
No editor files were used as part of this process, ensuring that the guide provided is applicable to the vanilla game.
FILES
Maybe you want to take a look at the saves for yourself? Have at it:
Sim 1: www.mediafire.com/file/7dv9fw...
Sim 2: www.mediafire.com/file/tvca03...
Sim 3: www.mediafire.com/file/5u3mel...
Sim 4: www.mediafire.com/file/ch7wuu...
Sim 5: www.mediafire.com/file/a4ucuz...
Instant Result: www.mediafire.com/file/njmmez...
Tactic Only: www.mediafire.com/file/0xvlmo...
Tactic: www.mediafire.com/file/6m2okd...
MUSTERMANNFM
A veteran of the FM series, going all the way back to Championship Manager Italia in 1993 (yes, I'm old). Creator of the Mustermann skins (links below) and recently started creating UA-cam content. Awful sense of humour.
MODS USED
Mustermann Iconic Skin: bit.ly/46zPxAP
Cut Out Player Faces Megapack: sortitoutsi.net/graphics/styl...
Standard Kits Megapack: sortitoutsi.net/graphics/styl...
Background & Stadiums Megapack: sortitoutsi.net/graphics/styl...
FMG Standard Logos Megapack: sortitoutsi.net/graphics/styl...
Trophies Megapack: www.fmscout.com/a-fm23-trophi...
DONATIONS
If, for whatever reason, you are so enamoured with this skin you want to send me a coffee, feel free to donate via PayPal: www.paypal.com/donate/?busine.... I would like to stress there is no obligation whatsoever!
MUSIC
Royalty Free Lofi - Matt Rosella
pixabay.com/users/mjrtist-236... - Ігри
This channel is astoundingly under the radar - excellent and entertaining work!
Thank you, and I'm glad you enjoyed it 🙏
I can’t understand how you only have 3k subs. Best fm creator by far
Thank you for the kind words!!
I've only been going a few months, so I view it the other way - I can't believe 3k have subbed to me!!
You are unbelievable mate, not even trying to suck up to you or anything but wow, amazing. The thought and detail behind each transfer and explaining your logic and reasoning for everything you do is incredible. Seriously mate keep it up.
Much appreciated 🙏
Just glad people are enjoying it, and hopefully it proves useful, too!
A strategy to dominate the entire game. We have fun with you, and we hope you will have more episodes like this "Moneyball clinic"
Glad you enjoyed it!! There will definitely be more episodes. They take a while (mainly because I have to balance with work and other content on this channel), but the next one should be in a couple of weeks.
Another absolutely stellar episode Mr Muster. I thought the Wolves ep was good but this blows it out of the water.
Thank you very much, dude 🙏
Was a little worried about the runtime on this one, but very happy with how it turned out!
man... you create a masterclass about how to play this game...congratulations.
Blessed 🙏 thank you for the kind words
I don't think I've ever come across such a well presented, entertaining video about FM24. Outstanding, and as a Wolves fan I'm going straight to the Wolves episode. Keep up the good work.
Thank you very much, and I'm glad you enjoyed it.
Oh, and I apologise for the disclaimer in the Wolves vid 😂
As always, fantastic episode. Love analyzing the data with you and the different, more level-headed approach you bring to the game!
Glad you enjoyed it!!
I know I'm biased, but I think it's really interesting to see how things can play out with a holistic approach. Use the information the game gives you to understand how and where to improve a team, and see how players who might otherwise go under the radar perform in the right situations.
That said, because I don't pay attention to wonderkid lists and stuff, sometimes it just turns out that players are better than I realised. I finished editing at the weekend, and then saw an article about how Alvaro Valles is absolutely tearing it up in La Liga this season 🤣
Another great episode in this series! Absolutely love it!
Glad you enjoyed it!! Hopefully more to come soon!
we need more video like this.great job as always !!!!
Thank you 🙏 just glad people are enjoying it, and hopefully it can be useful, too
What an episode! Loving this series
This was a fun one to make!! Glad you enjoyed it
Can’t wait for this channel to explode in views and subs once someone like Zealand comes along and recognizes it.
If you want to put in a good word, I won't complain 😂
My fav fm channel so keep up the wonderfull work
Blessed, thank you!! Really enjoy making this series, so hopefully more to cover soon
The "Edge" comment is the chefs kiss.
I tried to find a way to just drop a beanie on Dmitrovic's head in the edit, but couldn't get it to fit right 🤣
another good video. I love that you addressed simulated seasons issues at the end and did 1 ran yourself with instant result. good stuff
I think the Instant Result approach might be the way forward!!
Hey I found this off of a comment on FM Reddit. Your content is amazing, keep it up!
Firstly, welcome!! I'm glad you've enjoyed it (so far) and hope I can keep on entertaining!
As a huge fan of your Mustermann Skin for my FM since FM23 edition, imagine my suprise and wonder when I found your channel...
Welcome aboard!!
I needed to find an outlet to showcase my skin, other creators are far too scared to go attributeless!!
N.B. That's meant completely in jest, and is not true at all. DodgeeGamer, for one, used Mustermann23...and CultofFM is one of the most prominent Moneyballers out there!
Watching this for the first time and it is absolutely excellent, enjoy how you don’t revert to the standard names transfer wise & go left field. Keep them up!
Glad you enjoyed it. That's what I enjoy about this approach. Attributes are ultimately just a player's capacity to do something, but it doesn't matter if their performances aren't up to scratch. This way we can focus on those who do the things we want, and find some potentially unknown players in the process!
Keep up the good work, love this series!
Thank you 🙏 and glad to hear you're enjoying it so far!!
Great channel, great content. Keep up the good work !
Thank you! Glad you enjoyed it!
Awesome. I was always interested in Moneyball but i can’t pull it off in game, I get stuck in midtable when I manage a second divison side that i managed to promote with, but this makes me think that I might learn enough over the course of this series to overcome whatever it is that makes me get stuck
There's always going to be that element of challenge. Unlike baseball, and it's play-by-play nature, there isn't a singular metric that can help to indicate a player's chance of success and thus make it easy to identify those who are undervalued by the market.
Which is probably a good thing. Otherwise the game would be too easy 🤣
I think the skin makes a huge difference and makes playing a moneyball much more immersive which others skins fail to do
@@bill_benjamin thank you 🙏
It certainly helps having the performance data front and centre, but I also appreciate that everyone has a slightly different interpretation of what moneyball is, and so I'm glad there are a variety of skins out there that can cater to different needs!
Just discovered. Very very very interesting. Clear and calming. Subscribing for sure.
Welcome!! Thank you, and I'm glad that you've enjoyed it.
New to your channel but I love it! Keep up the good work 👏🏻
Welcome!! First, glad you've enjoyed it so far. Second, judging by your username...UTV!!!
@@mustermannfm 🦁💙💜
That Monty Python reference is perfection.
Thank you!! I've been waiting for someone to pick up on that 😂
I love these videos
Awesome - glad you enjoy them, and hopefully more to come soon!
Superb stuff once again.
Glad you enjoyed it 😁 this was a fun one to make!
@@mustermannfm it's also interesting because I was for a long time thinking between Betis and Sevilla when choosing my save after the winter transfer windows. Thanks to Isco I ended up choosing Betis.
@@sirtbambson Ah...that's a shame, if only I'd chosen Betis for this. To be fair, they were never in contention. It was always going to be a toss up between Sevilla and Villarreal for this, I think.
Watched this a number of times, I feel like I'm learning the skin every video. But also learning more about my favorite way to play FM, The moneyball way.. Hope you have a team I can build a nation with, like in Poland, Romania, Hungary or Bulgaria. Roll on the next moneyball video 😉
Hey, Spain haven't won a major international tournament since 2012...they need building. And England...well I shouldn't say anything 🤣
Joking aside, I focussed on the Top 30 leagues, so unfortunately those nations aren't likely to feature in upcoming videos, but I do plan to do some on the leagues nearer the bottom of the list, such as South Africa, Austria and Switzerland.
I also haven't done anything related to Bundseliga or Ligue 1 on this channel, yet. And want to get to Turkey at some point. And some lower league England. And...and...
So many leagues, so little time!
@mustermannfm The time & effort it must take to make these videos it's understandable that you pick certain leagues. Like you said you would love to do many more leagues, just not enough time in the year 😆
@@FM_Flop290 I'm just holding out for some philanthropic millionaire with a passion for FM to offer me lots of money so I can quit my job and focus on FM content instead!!
Great video, keep it up! Can't wait for the next one. Would be interesting to do this in a smaller league, for example the Eredivisie.
There are plans to do this in a wide variety of leagues. This is only episode 2, after all!
Eintracht Frankfurt video is out later today. We'll be back in the Premier League after that, followed by Turkey, then either Brazil/Argentina
Awesome, looking forward to all vids!
I've been using your skin this fm and trying to use a moneyball style in my save. This series has been great so far, it would be awesome to see how you go through the data to find the recommended players.
It would be very boring. You know those metrics I discuss for each position when I'm looking at them (e.g. progressive passes, turnover differential, expected assists for the DLPs)? I look for those. I take the pool off players, and then look for players with similar or better metrics than the corresponding player in the team (see the "for reference" pizza charts). I pick out a shark handful who are affordable and willing to join.
Much love to this
Thank you very much, dude!
fire ❤🔥
Cheers, dude 🙏
Can you do this as a lets play series.....The way you play this game is so entertaining...I wanna see this as a longer series please
I'm glad you're enjoying it.
As a let's play. Probably not, I'm afraid. These take a long time as it is, I want to get through more teams, and as you can see from the PAOK series, let's plays take even longer 🤣
Maybe when I win the lottery and don't have to work a job!
Lovely stuff indeed
Thank you, sire!
The longest the better! I like those extended clinics! Daddy Sergio! Ha,ha,ha,ha...
I felt unclean just saying it 🤣
Love your videos. In the future, could you create a video where you explain which stat is important for each role in the game ?
There is no answer to that question. It is not a case of stats being important for specific roles, but understanding what you expect from the player in your whole tactical setup. That's why the video goes through the whole process, analysing performance to see strengths and weaknesses, putting it into a simple tactic, and then using that information to inform what we look for in the transfer market.
These videos are so good
Thank you!!! Glad you're enjoying them!
This is like Tifo football but for Football Manager, insane quality for 6k subs
The original save files for the data set might have even been saved as "Sensible Transfers Data Test #"
Love these mate. Am doing a similar save using your skin (with Norwich) and am wondering how you start your transfer target hunt? I've set up a ton of statistical filters for each position, and then scout all the qualifiers (feels realistic to me), how about you? Appreciate a very vague question.
The transfer hunt usually starts with the tactic. Understanding what I want from a specific role in a tactic, and then I tend to use the incumbent player as the comparison point, based on the metrics that are key to me for that player role. It means that in different saves I might use the same role, but because of the tactic and other players in the team, the metrics might be different.
Subscribed. Sorry I didn't do it sooner. I'm all for strange men hiding on the internet distributing tactics to improve my football systems.
Never need to apologise for that! I'm just glad to have you on board!!
Great video and channel. How do you search the players? Do you have a view of filter with those statistics?
For this series, I've explained the methodology in the description. The pool is created from simulations. At the start of the game there is no performance data, as no one has played games.
In game, I personally disable player search, so I just let my scouts build up a pool of players, and then I just look through them manually.
That's what I wanted to know. If you search for them manually or by filtering statistics. Thanks!@@mustermannfm
You don’t have transfer debt, you have future transfer money owed to you.
You are indeed correct. The point still stands; Sevilla are financially healthy.
hahahahaha the moment from oliver twist......
I'm full of modern references 😂
Could you do a moneyball Clinic with Man Utd. See if you can sort them out... lol
Look forward to your next video.
I'll add them to the list, but full transparency, I doubt it will happen before FM25. Next episode will be Premier League, but the team is already chosen, and then going to touch on a couple of leagues outside of the top 5.
Do you use recruitment focus' for moneyball and if so how do you set them?
For this series, no. I explain the methodology in the video description:
METHODOLOGY
I performed 10 full detail simulations of the Top 30 leagues to create a single database to give me insight into player and team performances under the current Match Engine. Set up in real world mode, with the first transfer window disabled. Teams were able to make transfers in January, allowing us to get a sense of what the AI considers each team's areas of weakness.
All player statistics were exported for players in active leagues who played over 900 minutes, aggregated and then standardised to per 90 metrics. All player recommendedations will come from this pool.
League results were similarly exported, and averaged out to help give a high level overview of team performance, which will instruct us on the state of teams at the start of the game and provide a baseline for us to measure against. I'll be using the save file from the season that is the closest representation of a team's average performance to then drill further into specific details.
No editor files were used as part of this process, ensuring that the guide provided is applicable to the vanilla game.
This is partly because we are doing this from the start of the game; when players have played no minutes so there is no data to otherwise go by.
In regular game play, yes I use recruitment focus specifically to build a pool of players, where I can then apply analysis to. I covered this in the PAOK Data Episode here: ua-cam.com/video/_ENLzv68fuM/v-deo.html
Brilliant and once again great work. Really enjoying the videos.
How do you view stats like that? In that type of graph
It's something I created for the Mustermann Iconic skin that is linked in the description.
If you don't mind me asking, how do you regularly find these players? I know you're not just searching for attributes so you must be getting them through scouting focus, but i'm kinda lost in trying to get the right options to find suitable players to sign.
Your videos are amazing. I love the in-depth analysis of your moneyball clynic series, also the PAOK one! Keep up the good work!
So for this series specifically, I popped the methodology in the description:
I performed 10 full detail simulations of the Top 30 leagues to create a single database to give me insight into player and team performances under the current Match Engine. Set up in real world mode, with the first transfer window disabled. Teams were able to make transfers in January, allowing us to get a sense of what the AI considers each team's areas of weakness.
All player statistics were exported for players in active leagues who played over 900 minutes, aggregated and then standardised to per 90 metrics. All player recommendedations will come from this pool.
I will then look at the position of need, and look for players who are within 90% of key metrics for the player they are replacing. E.g. for a deep lying playmaker, I looked for players who had at least 90% or higher open-play key passes, progressive passes, pass completion of Ivan Rakitic. I don't go 100% because I might want a player who is better in some metrics, but worse in others. This provides a big ol' list, a lot of players who are either playing against too low competition, aren't interested in joining the club, or too expensive. I look for 3 who I think are interesting. Either these are players whose performance stands out considerably, or someone with low value, or someone unexpected.
In a normal game environment, like with PAOK or Ajax before, it's the same methodology, but just from the pool of players built up by the scouts. Considerably fewer options there. I also have some combined metrics I like to use, such as "Excitement Factor" which is a sum of Open-Play Key Passes, Shots, Dribbles and Free Kicks Won per 90. These are things I calculate myself.
(I should add that PAOK isn't specifically a Moneyball save, so I might allow myself to be a little more swayed by reputation, especially as I like to improve the club's standings on a European level)
@@mustermannfm Thank you so much!!! This clears a lot of questions i had. Tried to start a moneyball save but i kinda fell apart as i was lost in what i should be doing and how should i be doing it. I was already using excel and the spreadsheets to help me find some players but it's not too easy for a moneyball newbie to get a hold of so many numbers and know what to look for. Like i said before, this really helps me a lot, and i really appreciate you taking the time to explain it to me on such short notice and with good detail. You're my favourite FM UA-camr atm. 🫡
P.s. i know that PAOK isn't specifically a moneyball series, i paid close attention to the videos ahah.
@@AtomicVersion19 just making sure I get ahead of things before I sign Mbappe in the summer (I wish) 🤣
The thing with moneyball, that I mentioned somewhere in another comment, is that there isn't an analog like On-Base Percentage in basketball. So it's a case of knowing what you want a player to do, and then looking for metrics that show if a player can do it.
That's why these videos are structured the way they are. We look at the squad, to understand strength and weaknesses, devise a simple tactic, and then use that knowledge to inform what type of player we are looking for. The Valles transfer is a good example. We know we're aggressive out of possession, so we need a capable sweeper keeper. This means we're looking specifically at possession based metrics. Possession won can be a good indicator of a keeper who sweeps up behind a high line, and then the passing metrics show how he can contribute in deep build up.
@@mustermannfm there's also the fact that numbers will go up or down depending on which league the player is currently in and if he can translate it to where we want to bring him. The Valles transfer is an amazing one, really nice way to think about when i understood what you were looking for in a Gk instead of just looking at save percentages and xg saved. I will try again and look for what i need instead of just looking for the most common metrics.
@@AtomicVersion19 everything's always about nuance. Which is annoying, because it makes it harder to judge 😂
A successful dribble is a successful dribble, regardless of whether it is a player pushing the ball past a slow player and using their pace to run onto it, or whether it is a player using quick feet and ball control in a tight space. And this is meant to be a game, so we don't have time to watch highlights of every player we want to buy!!
How do you do moneyball without having data from previous seasons though?
Literally the first 30 seconds of the video answers that question 🤣
Any chance of a scottish video maybe one of Edinburgh teams or aberdeen
I'll add Scotland to the list, but fair warning: the list is getting rather long, so might not be until FM25!!
Anyone have any tips to reduce debt faster?
I really like to rebuild teams with a lot of debts, but its taking forever to chunk it down.
Difficult to say without details, but I would focus just on those things that you can control. Scout ahead so you can be active in selling players knowing you can line up a cheaper replacement. Pay close attention to your wage expenditure. Bonuses can catch you out very easily.
@@mustermannfmTy man, loving the channel
🍻
Is it worthwhile for someone who has 1-2 hours a day for gaming to start with FM? What do you think?
If you enjoy football, and are particularly interested in the management aspect, then absolutely. Sure, the pay-off will be slower than an FPS where you can get straight into the action, but it's still very viable to play in limited time.
Look, I have the advantage of having played various iterations since the 90s, so I don't need to learn the mechanics from scratch, but I work full-time and making videos (scripting, editing, etc...) takes up quite a bit of time, too. In general I probably only play the game maybe 8-10 hours per week.
The way you use data, you should be hired by a premier league club. The way you could help them with transfer targets would be better than what ever you see clubs do now.
Thank you for the kind sentiment!!
I am certain that all clubs have considerably smarter analysts than myself on the books...with the exception of perhaps Man Utd!!!
@@mustermannfm I'm a utd fan hahaha you're not wrong tho.
@@zipfall1987 the recruitment strategy at Utd has, I'm afraid to say, been very odd for a long time now
I meant to ask this on the Wolves video, but is there a reason you don’t calculate average performance for every player? It’s more work sure but wouldn’t that have provided a more accurate baseline?
As in average rating? If so, because average rating is weighted too heavily towards goals and assists, that I often find it misleading.
If you mean an average of each players performance over the simulations, then that is what I use for the player pool - everything has been aggregated and then standardised to per 90 metrics. That helps soften the edges for players who might have one exceptional or lousy season. In terms of squad assessment, I'd rather use a single season (the most average one by the team's standards) because it helps to have things more grounded in a real situation, makes it easier to identify the starting tactic, starting XI, etc...
If you mean something else, sorry for making assumptions! Do let me know, though!
The latter is what I meant, but for players at the club already. Apologies for not being clearer!
@@letri6593 no apology necessary!
As mentioned, I find it easier to ground squad assessment in a single season because there are fewer variables. For example, if a player is a starter but in 2 of the 10 simulations he is sold, or his position changes because of signings, it starts to become quite muddled and difficult to explain in a concise manner. That said, this video ended up 25 minutes long, so concise isn't necessarily my strong suit. Same can be said of this comment!!
There is also the element of the work involved. This took me about a week, and creating those aggregated pizza charts is a pain in the proverbial. I mean I do have the advantage of having made them for the skin in the first place, so I have all the assets, and I could probably save time by cutting out most of the god awful drawings.
As you can tell, I'm still very much in the working out how to do this stage 😂, so suggestions welcome and changes will undoubtedly occur as the series continues.
Also just wanted to say thank you for setting me down a path of using moneyball for player and staff recruitment. Thanks to you I exclusively play as a DOF in my saved now(partially because I’m shite at making tactics). Currently doing one with Liverpool, not the most difficult sure, but according to CIES, they’ve generated a loss of £249m from 2014 to 2023, so I thought a moneyball rebuild was needed.
Apparently I’m not a master of my words either.
@@letri6593 not gonna lie, there's something super satisfying about finding that player who isn't necessarily "good", but is perfect for what you need. What I might refer to as the anti-Chelsea policy!!
The Liverpool situation sounds perfect. That's a proper rebuild, having to transition to something more financially prudent whilst, I assume, staying competitive.
I'd love to find a team to do a proper NFL/NBA style rebuild. Turning assets into capital fully in the knowledge that you're going to be bad for a season or two, but with the aim of then pooling every together for a big title push in year 3. Not sure FM will let you survive the first couple of years, sadly.
Can you make a tutorial video showing how you find the players using moneyball?
For this series, I've explained the methodology in the description. The pool is created from simulations. At the start of the game there is no performance data, as no one has played games.
In game, I personally disable player search, so I just let my scouts build up a pool of players, and then I just look through them manually.
@@mustermannfmYeah, I read the description after writing this comment. Thanks for answering! Keep doing this amazing job, I'm loving your videos!
@@Mateusoph no worries! Just glad you're enjoying them and hope I can continue to entertain!
What skin is this please?
It's the Mustermann Iconic skin, linked in the description. I'll save you the extra click: bit.ly/46zPxAP
Different class honestly
Thank you 🙏, just glad you enjoyed it!!
Without a doubt!
@@danielpereira5200 thank you, dude 🙏
I would love to see stoke city 😅
The requests are coming in thick and fast. I'll add them to the list, but they'll be quite a way down at the moment. The rate I get videos out, might be looking at FM25!!
@mustermannfm haha that's class mate
Everyone wants to see there club
@@Cameyon of course...either the club you support, or whoever you've decided to start your next FM career with.
I think Gianelli Imbula's contract expires at the end of the season...maybe you could be my Stoke recommendation
🙈
Daddy Sergio 😂😂
I was gonna use that phrase in my Twitter post, but didn't want to risk the bots that would pick up on the word Daddy
Liverpool Moneyball please 😂
I'll add it to the list, but might be a long way away!!
My God that was good! Could hardly sit still. (StefanSwedishFMPagan)
Glad you enjoyed it, dude 🙏