These States Are In A Recession
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- Опубліковано 30 вер 2024
- EPB Investor Services - epbresearch.co...
When it comes to gauging the economy's movement into or out of a recession, it's important to understand that it's a gradual process rather than an abrupt event. We shed light on this concept by examining the unemployment rate changes across different states to determine which ones are at the forefront of the recession and which ones are relatively stronger.
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America is currently plagued by the hydra-headed evil duo of inflation and recession. The worst part about this recession is that consumers are racking up credit card debt. In April alone, credit card debt went up 20% while rates have doubled in a year. Inflation is so high that consumers are literally taking debt for basic life necessities. Collapse has indeed begun..
Consider investing in stocks especially during a recession . While recessions can be tough, they can also offer good chances to buy low and sell high in the markets if you're cautious. Just remember, this is not financial advice, but it's a good time to think about buying stocks since having cash on hand isn't always the best option.
It's unfortunate most people don't have such information. I don't really blame people who panic. Lack of information can be a big hurdle. I've been making more than $31k passively by just investing through an advisor, and I don't have to do much work. Doesn't matter if the economy is misbehaving; great wealth managers will always make returns.
@@mariaguerrero08Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service?
Credits to "Gertrude Margaret Quinto", she maintains an online presence. Just make a simple search for her name online.
Thanks for the info, i found her website and sent a message hopefully she replies soon.
No narcisistic face showing, no dramatic music or other bullshit.
Graphics, statistics, explanation and comparsion with a clear voice.
Don‘t change anything.
This is the video style that should be the standard for economic related educational videos.
I like the drama and politics of the other channels 😅
Man oh man, I had to stop watching "Money Talks GPS" or something like that. Dude would say on every video, "No one is bringing this information to you like I am. Those other UA-camrs dont show you the facts. I do." While staring at the camera and pausing. I thought it was a joke at first, but he wouldnt (or couldnt) stop. Me and other people called him out asking if he watched particular finance channels, he would always say, "No." There are hundreds of thousands of money/finance channels he would never be able to watch them all. Often his reports would be days or weeks later after other people talked about the topic. I couldnt take the narcissism anymore.
So different than Reventure(reventure does kind of bring decent ish content... good data but he is a narcissistic and greedy fear monger)
Recessions are part of the economic cycle, all you can do is make sure you're prepared and plan accordingly. I graduated into a recession (2009). My 1st job after college was aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today I'm a VP at a global company, own 3 rental properties, invest in stocks and biz, built my own business, and have my net worth increase by $500k in the last 4 years.
Why did you make a comment bragging about what you have? And you clearly didn’t have anything last recession so how is this useful to the 2023 recession
Keep this in the back of your mind. There are good days and bad days. It's a zero-sum game, but keep this advice in mind: spend wisely, invest wisely, and diversify your holdings so that when one performs poorly, the others do as well. This can be accomplished by hiring a knowledgeable specialist whose platform provides a wide range of investment options. By doing so, you leave little room for regrets and may even gain more.
Maybe you've already met Margaret Johnson Arndt,. my coach. Look her up; many consider her to be the greatest in her profession.
I was curious so I checked up Margaret’s profile online; I saw her website; her credentials speak highly of her; and she comes across as being very tight. I initially believed that this was hyped nonsense.
Shill thread
Babe wake up…. EPB posted.
No
The bromance is real. ❤
Babe wake up... time for your doomporn and chill. 😀
(It feels like that, even if it might be a reality.)
Yeah, we're going to be looking back on this fondly in 20 years.
I’m up daddy, what’s going on handsome baby? 😘
EPB is the best analysis there is. Level headed and unbiased. Not looking to get cheap views.
Yea it is shocking how he is not much bigger following already to me.
Desperately trying to find a recession in the data instead of just accepting reality...
There's a major flaw in claiming eventually all states are dragged down. Most past recessions have not demonstrated that, with the exceptions being the major ones, Great Recession and the Depression.
7-10 million men in US not looking for work, don't care. I play golf on weekdays... 50% of the people I meet are unemployed and won't look for work because they can't make a living wage... its a national case of 'the fuck-its'
I'm so glad I listened to you and held off on buying our first home. The home my wife and I were going to buy has dropped -16% since January of this year alone. 2026, 2027 will be the year to buy again. Once all the dust settles. Thank you, again!
timing the market is a losing proposition. This is an incomplete analysis because asset price move inversely to interest rates. as soon as the fed drops interest rates home prices will jump again. secular demand is high because not a lot of home inventory has entered the market and Boomers/Genxers arent moving out any time soon.
Keep telling yourself that lol
I live in NJ and work in industrial/commercial construction. Its the busiest its been in my 22 yr career. No exaggeration.... its mostly industrial though, only commercial is data centers. Its basically all state funded jobs.
What type of industrials are being built?
Thanks for sharing! The animations look smooth and pleasant. May I ask what tools you are using to make them?
Thank you. When coming out of a recession, which states tend to lead?
Blue state… followed by Blue state… followed by Blue state… followed by Blue state
Chase away your wealthy and business tax bases. Increase crime in urban areas. What could possibly go wrong?
I absolutely love your videos and how you very thoughtfully present your topics. Once I came across one, I was so impressed and fascinated, I spent much of a weekend watching and, often, rewatching them. Shared with my coworkers as well, as we are quite puzzled over the markets, economy, and what the leading economic indicators are saying. Keep up the great work!
RE prices CONTINUE rising FAST in Indiana... Certainly surrounding Indianapolis.
Nice data without all the typical UA-cam theatrics and nonsense. Thank you!
My son is a Economics major, I read him part of the transcript to test if he is learning anything 😊
…not exactly positive if he’s learning Keynesian garbage…
Steady professor, was a Dad joke...
@@veeli1106 are you serious?
@@marthas9255 Deadly serious considering how Keynesian economics got us into the mess that we have been in for almost a century.
So unemployment insurance qualification varies by state. I learned this the hard way in 2017 when due to haveing over 10k in my savings account I did not qualify for anything. Despite being laid off due to a contraction in my companies workforce. Upon reading into it, qualified unemployment varies by state, although i also dont know if i even counted toward the official statistics. I always now look at the unemployment numbers with a much wider margin of error, depending on the local reporting policy
Interesting info. What state?
I don't believe it. A state can ask your bank how much money you have in your account? What if you don't have a bank account?
The funniest part of this story. If you liquidated your savings account into gold coins before you applied, you'd have been approved.
@@craigmcpherson1455 The state asks, the bank obliges like a five cent hooker who loves their pimp. They don't HAVE to comply, they just do.
@@joefer5360 Or even into physical cash you kept in a safe.
You obviously haven't visited Georgia. It's so gd busy and crowded here, it's doubtful Georgia is on the list
All the numbers given were tiny percentages. Unsure why this video even was created
ALWAYS good info and the graphics make it easy to follow the statistics. thanks for putting this info together in an easily digestible format.
Is there the same info for EU countries? It would be really cool to see the same info for EU.
I think it would be easier to do it with the EU as a whole
Germany, France and then Britian.
Rest of EU afterwards
I wonder if data is skewed for MA due to a lot of seasonal workers?
I work in architecture and was let go from my job and I have a lot of friends that were let go in tech and bio industries
@@MichelleJohnson-p8y yes but I find it a bit unbelievable that the number of jobs lost in MA is more than most places in the USA.
The main reason is due to massive layoff in the biotech sector
There is something interesting about the states on the top / bottom. Can’t put my finger on the correlation.
Might need to overlay the "rate of insured employees". This change does not represent the entire population, it is only the insured employees. Unless I am missing something.
1 hour of info in 5 minutes. Thank you
This is an interesting theory - I'm not convinced by it, however. If we zoom in on just one of the states, California, for example, here's what I see:
- Lowest Unemployment Rate before each recession: 6.1% (1979), 5.0% (1989), 4.8% (2000), 4.9% (2006), and 4.0% (2019). It is true that California's unemployment rate has risen above the 2019 unemployment rate. However, at 4.6%, it is still below the bottoms in 2000 and 2006.
- If we look at another key recessionary indicator, Real GDP, we can see that grew in Q1 (albeit, slowly).
With all that said, it's hard to predict the future, and I won't be surprised to see a recession start in the next 1-2 years.
Nick, Reventure: "LA has always been a volatile economy"
Me: Tell me that, *before* I moved there in 2007!"🙄
EPB, 2023: "Quick, everyone! Move to IA."
BLS lives matter! LOL
Tick tick tick.......boom ⏳💣
I never miss one of Eric's videos. They are among the best.
TBH this sounds like an attempt to justify the months or years of predicting the recession that never happens.
By Rob Manning (OPB)
June 14, 2023 4:12 p.m.
Oregon’s jobless rate fell, while the national rate went up. Both ended up at 3.7% for May.
Oregon’s unemployment rate improved last month, falling from 4% to 3.7% from April to May, according to figures released by state officials Wednesday. Over that same time, the national jobless rate went in the other direction, rising from 3.4% to 3.7%.
Oregon’s unemployment rate has improved by a full percentage point since February, when it was 4.7%.
Still, senior economic analyst at the Oregon Employment Department Anna Johnson said job growth in the state is not as rapid as it was a few months ago.
Those percentages are ridiculously small to make any statements from. 0.2% change is 3-4 states.. so what
Real estate prices still too high in MA! I'm waiting for a 20% drop. Prices are still going up! We need MORE unemployment! I'd be happy to have 25% unemployment in MA! That would be great.
@@TheBlawdfire Housing is overpriced due to gov't. If you don't like it, stop supporting them! Yes, I'd rather more residential construction. I'd rather let the free market determine prices and construction, but YOUR gov't interferes, so yeah, let the losers who support gov't lose their houses. Including YOU!
Iowa has a lot of job openings but its mostly small towns and super cold in the winter
Iowan here… I live in Des Moines, IA. Bigger city, plenty to do for everyone! Oddly, just got voted largest skateboarding park in the country. Iowa City, Davenport, Cedar Rapids are a few bigger cities scattered around the state. Cold winters, but Spring and Fall are nothing to scoff at. I work for a financial institution, make $88K a year, so financially doing alright. I’m Mexican-American, which I’m only saying to mention that it’s not a complete Whitey state, which is a huge bonus to me! Might be worth a second look!
@@Take_Your_Time_I_Can_Wait what type of job title work tasks you do to get 88k a yr? Do u have a boss that can fire u anytime?
Thank you for your time and research. I love economics, but I run multiple businesses and don't have time to do the research. Your insights help me make straregic moves in my business.
Plus its great that we seem to follow similar economic theories.
This is faulty analysis that doesn't take into account political decisions made in state vs state in regards to how many people *can access* unemployment benefits. Red states are going to have many more unemployed people not receiving benefits than blue states, to a point where it distorts the economic picture.
I do not think this rate is a good metric to compare states when the two parties have such drastically different ideologies on unemployment insurance.
I'm curious what it would look like when you include underemployed and those who gave up looking for employment. This was talked about very little during election seasons and often forgotten due to how the numbers really appear when you include them.
I noticed you don't have a lot of states on your list of unemployment rate. (Like Maryland) Do some states not provide this info?
I think both lists filtered for best and worst. Those not listed would have been the states in the middle
AL and IN on both lists! Though, Alabama's just a weird state to look at statistics for that feels like there's stuff not reported. BLS unemployment estimations for the metros are all ridiculously low (highest of the 12 metros was 2.1% with the next lowest being 1.9), population estimates are chronically underestimated, job force growth looks low, the breaking news report about Latino child labor occurring mentioned help wanted signs in Spanish in areas with basically no recorded Latin population, areas with stagnant real estate markets for built inventory also have large numbers new house building (that's actually selling well). It's just an odd state.
Im going to watch all your videos straight as my "particular series marathon"..
Why do they end so abruptly?
States with good unemployment insurance. Okay guy.
Fwiw, If you’re buying a house, you will still want to talk to a good number of people to find the *local* deals. Similar to how recessions differ by state, cities by cities, and even neighborhoods can differ by housing prices.
Relevant data and good context. Thanks.
EPB Research- It seems to me that the labor participation rate would be a better gauge of employment as compared to the unemployment rate. Why do we hear very little about the labor participation rate in the news and from the government?
Massachusetts ? No way. Economy hot here .... cannot find enough workers. Recession proof industries abound here ... medical, education, military .
You're saying cannot find enough workers. He's saying people are filing for unemployment claims.
That's not necessarily a contradiction.
Dont think most of your audience understands the point of your research.
But hiring for the migrants is booming. This is no way a seasonal thing.
Love this research, teaches about economics, but also the world itself, and morality.
So if 30% of states have an insured unemployment rate higher than 2018/2019, which is about a 5 year gap, I would like to know the % of states that have higher insured unemployment from the previous 5 year period going back decades. It’s possible that 30% of states having a higher insured unemployment rate after 5 years is normal, and not out of line with what is typically expect, which would mean this is not an indicator of a recession.
That's a very reasonable concern. I agree that we should observe if this one is an outlier.
Have been for several months 😮.
Woke cities going under
Do t change a thing. Awesome content and presentation
thanks for clarity and factual reporting lacking in our government
It's rate of change data and not absolute. The rush hour commuter traffic in Eastern MA still suchs b@lls and we're way overdue for a hard recession. House prices are still nuts and 100k dollar SUVs and Teslas are still everywhere.
Excellent as always!
Covid 2.0 incoming
Glad i moved to Iowa in 2022
Alaska has lots of jobs. if you can survive the winter. but for real, pretty much always jobs up here
what type of jobs?
@@newsarticlereviewskid6630 Anchorage has most every normal job that exists ( maybe not jet ski rentals). obviously service industry to start like anywhere els. The airport is a major cargo hub for Asia so anything airport plane and cargo related, huge military job presence, then oil and gas jobs, then lots of tourism in the summer/ cruise ships. then logging and commercial fishing related industry. id say farming is a weak point but oddly enough still have some. id say working just the summers would be a good way to try it out.
be a kayak guide for a summer and see what happens.
Good metrics
The insured unemployment rate can be up due to inflation as well
Don't trust pigs! NEVER talk to them!
Seasonal corrected data = "we messed with it". 😆
good analysis. makes sense. thx EPB.
Good stuff
Is this as accurate as your 30% housing crash prediction? Every year saying its going to happen next year?😂😂😂
Woooo first comment. Also just want to say that I love the quality of your videos! They’ve been getting better and better, and I look forward to watching them. Keep it up!
Never change EPB
So for 10 years ….. 10,000 older workers aged out of the workforce daily….. now it’s 9,000 some ….. the best states are the ones that have incoming old people ….. the mobile old peolpe still have money to spend
👌🏻
Will house prices crash in all world? In Azerbaijan Baku?
Probably
Thanks.
I live in California. I do not see a recession here, as you colored US map shows. I’ve lived here for 30 years, and have never been out of work. California has a very strong economy.
Surely your joking? Right?
@@bdek68That's the level of faith required to stay in California.
Get rid of blue cities!
Question, can individual states experience a recession while others do not?
Recession = fall in GDP in two successive quarters.
If you can somehow make that mean something for a state, I suppose? 😆 (GDP = at a federal level...)
@@fitybux4664 What happens when an entire region goes down in GDP, and another region goes up in GDP? Does that mean one area enters a recession, while others a boom, canceling each other out, and netting no real effect on the "economy"?
@@giffica not sure what you mean by region's GDP. GDP is typically done at a federal level. (I'm sure there are some state-level analogs.)
Yet another YT channel trying to spin some silly narrative that simply is not true. Yawn.
Im in California. No recession here in my market. Home prices are very high and sticky, and sell quickly. Teslas everywhere. Restaurants packed.🤷🏻♂️
That would be just local to you
Isn’t a recession 2 quarters of GDP loss? Doesn’t have to be very noticeable for a recession to be there
Well it can change pretty fast. In 2007 the rate in CA started off at 4.9% and ended the year at 5.7% nothing crazy but 2008 started at 5.9% and ended at almost 10%. Now that's a big move. The thing is that CA does not have the housing boom that the 2008 cycle had with all the lost construction work however Tech companies might be at risk due to loans and investments drying up. I guess time will tell.
Live there too nothing changed everything just got more expensive and households and firms cutting corners instead of firing.
@@drscopeify normally i would agree. But now we are in an era of state and federal govts not allowing defaults: free $, stimmy $, mortgage forbearance, loan mods, 40 year refis, cant evict or foreclose, dont have to pay your mortgage, student loans, auto loans, on and on.
Yes, and the other 45 states are in an outright DEPRESSION.
Nope
dumbed it down for us, but need it even dumber :P
Massachusetts may be higher because of all the college students who are technically unemployed, and weren’t residing in the state during Covid 🤷♂️
Edit: Damn, why does Massachusetts suck so bad? I guess Democrats like higher unemployment rates because it means more votes for them.
He used pre-Covid numbers compared to today's numbers and Massachusetts still came out as the most negative state.
@@TheBlawdfire Why do you think MA has such a high unemployment rate?
According to the National Center for Education Statistics, California has 436 colleges, NY has 248, Florida has 208, Massachusetts has 120, Washington has 81
The resason why Massachusetts has a high unemployment right now is because of massive layoff in the biotech sector.
Great video, although you should have highlighted the states leading the recession in blue...for obvious reasons.
@@TheBlawdfire ok
What is common, they are Democrat run states?
@@user-ks2uo3qh7i Data and facts are showing most of the states leading the country into recession are run by democrats dimwit
Quick question, did you take the shot and up to date and boosters, do you believe in climate change?
@@williamblais1004 do you believe the election was stolen?
The entire us has been in a depression since 2020.
Recession coming… in 10 years
It's really messed up we judge a recession by unemployment #'s, but the data is always skewed