SUERF-BdE-BdI-BoF-ECB - Economic slack or shortages - 20230327

On 27 March 2023, around 130 international economists gathered for an online workshop on “Measuring economic slack or shortages: new methods and ways forward”. The workshop was jointly organized by SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, the Banco d`España, the Bank of Finland, the Banca d`Italia and the ECB.
Motivation:
The post-covid, geopolitical and energy crises period has been characterized by conflicting indicators on whether the economy is below, at or above its potential. This is not least due to the multiplicity of large shocks (supply and demand, external and domestic, temporary or lasting, global, idiosyncratic and sectoral), the heightened uncertainty that surrounds them, and their transmission to economies. This complex setting is likely to continue, with climate change and the energy transition as well as secular shifts in global value chains looming. The issue is central due to its important role for adequate monetary, fiscal, and structural policies as well as for inflation forecasting. This workshop takes stock of recent theoretical and empirical advances in measuring potential output, labor market conditions and other indicators developed to gauge price pressures.
Speakers and timeline:
00:00:14 - Ernest Gnan, Secretary General, SUERF: Welcome
00:00:55 - Juha Kilponen, Bank of Finland: Introduction
Session 1: Longer-term implications of supply disruptions, sectoral change and scarring for potential output
00:03:03- Alessandro Notarpietro, Banca d ‘Italia: Introduction and moderation
00:03:33 - Deniz Igan, BIS and SUERF: From bottlenecks to supply-side headwinds
00:16:01 - Katalin Bodnar, ECB: The impact of the COVID-19 shock on euro area potential output: a sectoral approach
00:31:42 - David Aikman, King’s College London: The scarring effects of deep contractions
00:47:30 - Michaela Elfsbacka-Schmöller, Bank of Finland: Endogenous technology, scarring and fiscal policy
01:05:09 - Discussion and Q&A
Session 2: Measuring the output gap in times of large shocks - tools and recent advances
01:29:34 - Eva Ortega, Banco de España: Introduction and moderation
01:29:51 - Fabio Canova, BI Norwegian Business School: FAQ: How do I estimate the output gap?
01:44:45 - David Sondermann, ECB: Measuring the output gap in times of large shocks
02:04:40 - Matthias Strifler, National Audit Office of Finland: A business cycle heatmap for the EU, EA and EU member states
02:19:24 - Christian Ochsner, German Council of Economic Experts: Robust Real-Time Estimates of the German Output Gap based on a Multivariate Trend-Cycle Decomposition
02:35:19 - Bela Szörfi, ECB: Evaluating estimates of potential output and output gaps
02:55:25 - Discussion and Q&A
03:19:51 - Ernest Gnan, SUERF: Closing and farewell
03:21:16 - End
Scientific Committee:
Matthieu Darracq-Paries, ECB; Ernest Gnan, SUERF; Juha Kilponen, Bank of Finland; Alessandro Notarpietro, Banca d’ Italia, and Eva Ortega, Banco de España.
© SUERF 2023. All rights reserved. Views are those of speakers only and not necessarily of their affiliated institutions.