SUERF ECB BoF BdI ECB models for forecasting and policy 20240604

On 4 June 2024 around 190 international experts met for a SUERF I ECB I Bank of Finland I Banca d’Italia online workshop on “ECB macroeconomic models for forecasting and policy analysis: state of play - appraisal - way forward”.
Based on ECB Occasional Paper No 344, the webinar extracted key conclusions regarding three aspects: first, strengths and limitations of the various model classes currently used by the ECB (building on chapter 2 of the Occasional Paper); second, key policy applications of the various model types - where are their respective comparative advantages (building on chapter 3); third, the way forward - what are main areas of applications where further model development is most needed, which (new or adapted) model types will be particularly relevant, and what are key foreseeable or likely challenges on the way forward (building on chapter 4).
The workshop aimed, among other things, to be useful for researchers at other central banks and academic researchers to obtain an overview of the ECB’s current state of play and intended way forward regarding model development. It may point to areas where academic research can find useful niches and help identify potential synergies between future academic research and Eurosystem model development.
Speakers and timeline:
00:00:14 - Welcome and Introduction: Ernest Gnan, SUERF
00:01:19 - Session 1 - ECB presentation - introduction and moderation: Juha Kilponen, Bank of Finland
00:02:26 - Presentation - ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis: Development, current practices and prospective challenges: Matteo Ciccarelli, Matthieu Darracq Pariès, Romanos Prifitis, ECB
00:36:10 - Q&A
00:46:36 - Session 2 - Discussion - introduction and moderation: Alessandro Notarpietro, Banca d’Italia
00:47:59 - Discussion 1: Martin Weale, King's College London
01:01:34 - Discussion 2: Jesper Linde, IMF
01:16:59 - Q&A
01:34:15 - Concluding remarks and farewell: Ernest Gnan
Presentation slides: www.suerf.org/events/ecb-and-...
ECB Occasional Paper 344: ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scp...
© SUERF 2024. Views expressed are those of the speakers only and not necessarily of their affiliated institutions.
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