Geez, it’s just like Disney blaming the fans because they don’t like their stupid Star Wars movies/shows. I guess blaming the people you’re trying to appeal to when you lose is just the new liberal go to strategy. I say keep it up, it fails every time.
@@tamagnobose608 Yes, he clearly misread the economic signals, the problems associated with no primary contest, social unrest and, unbelievably enough, he thinks that Trump is an uncharismatic challenger. Amazing.
@@davidcoleman5860 it i amazing that you don't see T for what it is. An extreme sociopath. That is not real 'charisma'; that is ego-self-illumination! Poor US, oh dear, oh dear! Poor world!
dumb mans interpretation, who doesnt understand model assumptions. He said the opposite.. the model might be invalid as the electorate is not behaving pragmatically and rationally due to misinformation.. These kind of assumptions are behind every model.
The funniest part is his keys were right, he was just so biased in wanting Kamala to win that he ignored objective reality to pick her as the answer where she just flat out isn't the answer.
No, he didn't. His model is based on historic facts. Like any scientific model, it can only look into the PAST. And if you'd listen & understand this video, you'd hear the problem with the 13 keys model: 7:57 "The premise of the keys was that a rational, pragmatic electorate decides whether the White House party has governed well enough" -> RATIONAL and PRAGMATIC. In a post-factual society like the US has become, people no longer vote based on objective facts. This is a severe problem for such models. 2024 might be the end of the 13-keys model.
Can you imagine the Gen Z kids in his classes this fall semester? They are walking out of his classroom and he is walking behind them, poking his face in, trying to point out why Harris should have won. Dude's the reason they put in the campus phone booths.
his keys were actually right , but he is so biased that he he gave the economy key to the biden administration lmao ,imagine being so biased you cant even use the system you came up with lol
Lol I know. Imagine essentially saying “it’s the ‘fault’ of people who voted for Trump that he won” and thinking you’ve made any kind of meaningful point 😆🤡
These are just normal people in their own wheelhouse. The problem is if a filthy rich oligarch decides to support an unpopular candidate using AI and social media for personal benefit, we are powerless to the technology used. Were votes deleted or changed? we may never know.
It's a perfect ending. He can always justify his losses with an asterisk. He has no evidence in support of his evidence. For a data guy I find this peculiar.
@@rubixcube3772 Trump Derangement Syndrome. Leftist extreme bias driven by irrational hatred for Trump, spread by the liberal mainstream media and leftist bubble echo chambers.
@@rubixcube3772 Trump Derangement Syndrome... It's when some people go off the rails whenever Trump is part of the topic of conversation so they say or do things that are dishonest and senseless and end up making total fools of themselves...
@@rubixcube3772 Trump Derangement Syndrome. It's characterized by Donald Trump living rent-free in one's mind. In severe cases, the patient turns orange.
I used to like Allan Lichtman, despite his left bias, because I thought he could be objective. His lack of intellectual honesty after his blunder prediction is appalling
This dishonest goes back to the original keys themselves. He has a long term economy key, but for the 1960 election he used inflation instead of GDP as the explanation for Nixon's loss. In 2000 he said he predicted Al Gore's popular vote victory. In 2016 he said he predicted Trump's electoral college win. By 1960 standards Trump had the keys this year. This is the first completely unambiguous prediction failure for him just because of the electoral / popular vote split.
@@yossabelchetty8355Yes, but he needs to realize he has biases. He won’t admit that. He is a leftist. Fine, but own it. Others used the keys, without bias, and found that Trump would win. His excuses are ridiculous. Also, he cannot take criticism. Not people being jerks, but genuine criticism. It’s sad really. His son is not helpful either. He helps his dad on his livestreams on his UA-cam channel.
Trump ended many careers. Hillary Clinton in 2016 This year however, Trump is on a roll... Joe Biden, Thomas Matthew Crooks, Kamala Harris, Tim Walz, and this toupee touting clown.
@@FathomlessJoy Yes, his bias got in the way. Funnily enough, when you use his own system correctly it actually points to Trump winning. His system is actually very good, however his hatred of Trump stopped him from applying his keys correctly.
Totally packed to the brim with shit. He is a Democrat shill and is massively bias. His keys are subjective and mists of them are his personal opinion. We the people decide the outcome. Not Allen’s keys.
I plan to retire at 62 in another country outside the US that is free, safe and very cheap with a high quality of life. I could fully just rely on only my SS if I wanted to when that times arrives but l'll also have at least one pension, a 403 (b) and a very prolific Investment account with my Stephanie Janis Stiefel my FA. Retiring comfortably in the US these days is almost impossible.
I know this lady you just mentioned. Stephanie Janis Stiefel is a portfolio manager and investment advisor. She gained recognition as an employee of neuberger berman; a renowned investor she is. Stephanie Janis Stiefel has demonstrated expertise in investment strategies and has been involved in managing portfolios and providing guidance to clients.
I went from no money to Invest with to busting my A** off on Uber eats for four months to raise about $20k to start trading with Stephanie Janis Stiefel. I am at $128k right now and LOVING that you have to bring this up here
Well her name is 'STEPHANIE JANIS STIEFEL'. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
He's also a total knucklehead drowning in his hubris. "Yeah, all the disinformation from the right tripped up my Venable Keys to Victory. That's my story and I'm sticking to it! I'm still correct and everyone else is wrong because there is no disinformation coming from the left". Said the lifelong Dem. I certainly didn't expect the Trump landslide but the fact that "The All-knowing Professor" stuck to his prediction even at the 11th hour indicates he didn't read the room. And is therefore a moron. So thrilled it was a landslide on both the popular and electoral because now there is a mandate. Combined with control over S/H and our country has a chance to be really great again!
You don't know how models work then. Models are based on known inputs. In this case, the input is an electorate that is voting based on facts. If the electorate is voting based on lies, then the model falls apart. Garbage in = Garbage out as they say.
@@olowoaye He's just a professor dude. He and a guy that fled the USSR came up with the model as a historical exercise and it's proved to be very good over history. Models don't always predict correctly and especially when they are given bad data. i.e all the voters voting based off of levels of disinformation that are unheard of. His model will obviously have to correct for people being a lot dumber than he originally thought.
@@SeanUCF Has the thought ever occurred to you, that maybe, just maybe, the voters actually did their research and what's considered "lies" are really not so, which led to Lichtman's analysis being skewed? Hmm? Stop defending Lichtman and his refusal to admit fault as to why he was wrong.
CPI has come down 3x since Covid levels. Not perfect for sure, but inflation is being held in check and is on its way down as well since the Fed is able to do its job without being threatened. Gas in the $2.70s where I live also
@@Clarkticus If you want to buy a home and start a family: a mortgage on the same home is 100% more today than if you bought in 2019. A new or used car is about 40% more. Groceries are up more than wages. If you didn't already have property and assets things are far worse today.
Yea no denying those huge problems, economy is still in a tough spot for the majority of people. I don’t believe that the economy is bad because of Biden though, interests rates are starting to head down now that Biden let the fed do its job independently which will help homebuyers and businesses eventually, releasing oil from the strategic reserve to bring prices down, working to break up monopolies etc.. negotiating better prices for prescription drugs. Clearly not enough to make the majority of people feel better though.
Well he had him on days before the election crowing about his infallible keys, so Chris owed him a chance to explain. Funny to see him launch into all the conspiracy theories that the leftists usually say the right invented.
This election has probably sunk Lichtman’s career. The only reason people were interested in him en masse is because of his track record. No one will care what he has to say moving forward, left or right
I actually don't think Allan Lichtman's keys needed to be changed. He interpreted them incorrectly and that's all he needs to say. But this inability to eat some humble pie makes hime look ridiculous. His keys have a pretty good track record. And he's wrong to say misinformation and disinformation impacted his keys. Weak.
@@fred-62 Look I'm not the biggest fan of Lichtman but to his credit, the keys have a good track record, in general. I just don't think it's time to throw the baby out with the bathwater on the 13 keys. I appreciate Nate Silver showing Litchman that he has blindspots and Silver was able to flip the keys and predict a Trump win. However, I don't think past presidential elections had as much variability as this one. Find the Silver video and he shows there's some value there, albeit imperfect.
Yeah, the dude is pathetic. Getting the election correct 9 out 11 times is still pretty damn good. But just admit it was wrong and move on. Dude is insanely arrogant.
I understand the economy keys, they use objective criteria about growth. Inflation I believe negated at least one. The one he absolutely got wrong was the charisma key. Kamala had none, zero zip zilch. No following. Sure some people hate trump, but he has a large following... charisma.
@@GeorgePolitis-z5o you don't understand the key, it is awarded to a charismatic challenger, ig there is not one the incumbent keeps it. kamala's lack of charisma far outwieghed the tds of Trump haters and Trump should have been awarded the key.
I'm thrilled Lichtman was wrong. He was all over TV and the internet with his prediction, and was arrogant and intolerable for months on end. Even now in this interview, he's parroting far left anti-Trump propaganda and blaming that for his failure. Pathetic. He can't admit Trump won fair and square.
Lichtman totally destroyed his own credibility. His bias and obvious TDS prevented him from interpreting his own keys properly. Everyone knows he did not use his own keys consistently with the way he used them in the past, just because he hates Trump and worships fake news mainstream media narratives. He wanted to support Biden Harris obviously. Now he's just making excuses with his typical Leftist delusions.
This is a very disappointing response from Lichtman. He could easily and understandably acknowledge that the special circumstances in this year's elections made certain keys difficult to interpret, such as the contest, incumbency and even third party keys. Instead he has gone down the rabbit hole of effectively blaming the electorate. Time to get a new electorate, then!
Ironically his Keys are fine. Kamala in theory had the first 4 keys. She was boring and Trump as Charismatic. Even if you are deluded about the economy, there wasn't any success for Biden/Harris policy wise. The Afghanistan withdrawal was major scandal if not the ousting of Biden itself.
With his racist talking points, he's literally begging to get on msnbc, from where he copied the talking points to begin with, for the last 6 days. Pathetic sellout!
@@kevin6293 They had no success in anything except the Chips Act. He's the one brainwashed by his news sources, then projects on us that we are not informed. He would do better with less msnbc in his life.
@@kevin6293 I can't remember exactly, but it had to do with one of Biden's negotiations dealing with Ukraine (whatever THAT was?). I don't remember details?
together with Ann Selzer, I think, this pollster who was literally a liberal put their basket on Kamala to make a fake poll just to create an illusion that Kamala had the biggest momentum going to the election.
I remember Allan saying “My keys are very robust, they go back to the horse and buggy days of American politics. They’ve withstood far greater changes than anything pertaining to this election.” Now he’s saying, “This is because of disinformation, racism, misogyny, and xenophobia.” So Allan must admit that his keys aren’t that robust, after all. If those things are to blame for his keys being wrong (which they aren’t lol), then his keys are worthless.
BRILLIANT! Yours is the most brilliant analysis I have read to this point! He DID, in fact, talk about his keys being very robust (in the manner you speak of!). The problem is that when he says his keys go back that far, it's useless! When you apply a model retroactively, you will tend to apply it with the bias needed to make it "fit" the historic election year he is analyzing. A more objective application of his model would be to make forward-looking predictions (of elections that have yet to transpire). He's been doing forward-looking predictions since 1984. And so far, he's batting 9 wins and 2 losses. There's no "fitting the results to your model" when making forward-looking predictions. That's the most objective test of the true value of the 13-keys model!
@@jlkkauffman7942 Exactly, others have used his keys to predict a Trump victory. He was biased against Trump and misunderstood his own keys. He made exceptions to the rule this time such as the incumbent key.
They do go all the way back to 1860 in development and he did say before the election that something significant could shift that historical trend and thus the predictive nature of his keys. He did suggest that it was unlikely that there would be a shift this time but he left open the possibility. In regards to him now saying this is the result of disinformation, racism, misogyny and xenephobia etc I get what you're saying. I think it's likely that at least some of those factors played a role in throwing the keys off, but, I also think Allan's possibly jumping the gun a little bit here. There would be nothing wrong with him saying something along the lines of I've not yet come to a conclusion but I suspect it was a result of, either in whole or in part these certain factors. Perhaps he just feels like he needs to come up with an answer as to why he was wrong but it would be much better for him to just admit that he's not yet sure.
What went wrong is that he did not separate his personal election preferences from the keys. if you look at it, the two economy keys should have gone to Trump which would have made Trump the winner. His own book explains that those economy keys have options that he could have used but he chose not to. It was him that was wrong not the keys but he will not admit it.
Agree 100 percent. When I watched him 2 weeks ago going through the keys I said wait how does he get a Harris win. The keys pointed to a Trump win. This had nothing to do with disinformation. This was the democrats took the country to far left and America brought it back to the middle
The economy improved under Biden. You're proof of what Lichtman said: Weak minded Trumpists wound up believing the pap smear that was dumped on them hourly, by Trump and Fox.
How would the economy keys go to Trump? Biden's admin corrected the huge hole Trump dumped us in, not completely, but better tan any other industrialized nation's post-covid economy. Look it up. It's a FACT. Ignorance is not stupidity, but willful ignorance is.
His arrogance just cannot let him admit he was wrong. His keys are right but he pretends the economy is great and gave that to her. Dumb! The economy is a freaking disaster!
😞🪦 RIP Allan Lichtman’s credibility AND claims of objectivity. I mean, we all have blindspots but this just hurts seeing it played out in real time. woke ≠ awake, apparently
I think you are right. His Keys are fine. It was his interpretation of the keys that was faulty. If he had come out and said that I think he could have managed his failed prediction.
"The economy is a freaking disaster"??? It's improved more than any other country worldwide at this time!!! Do you actually think that our economy is unique, in and of itself??! If you would stop watching conservative media, you would know that other economies around the world are STILL SUFFERING from the PANDEMIC that affected all other countries, besides ours! The misinformation in this country now rivals that of the UK--total corruption and lies!!! Where can you turn for actual, factual news anymore???!!! Certainly not Conservative Media!!! They have an agenda---but too many people are too ignorant to realize it!!!!
I tried using his 13 keys and I applied them as honestly and as objectively as I could. In my first pass, I got 10 keys predicting that Trump would win. I then tried to take a much more stringent and stricter application of the keys and still got 8 keys predicting a Trump win. Lichtman appears to have only had 4 or 5 keys against Kamala, but he foolishly missed out the NO CONTEST KEY (there was no primary at all, but most Democrats didn't really want Kamala) and the NO SCANDAL KEY, when we all know that the TV DEBACLE of Biden's Cognitive impairment showing up in that Debate and the fact that there was an obvious COVER UP was in itself a SCANDAL! Lichtman ignored those two. Those two would have been enough to result in 6 or 7 total keys and 6 is all you need to render the incumbent party unwinnable... Then there's the short term economy, where he ignored INFLATION, and thought of it was being "ok." Then there was the first assassination attempt against Trump which boosted his own popularity and charisma. The image of him a la Iwo Jima flag-raising photo and Dela Croix painting where he raised his first with the US flag in the background further boosted his charisma. Yet Lichtman refused to mark the "NO CHARISMATIC CHALLENGER KEY" against Kamala, ignoring the fact that many people on the fence (and former Democrats) became Trumpers thanks to that event. There's more but again, 6 keys against Kamala is all you need to accurately predict a Trump win. Lichtman could have correctly predicted the true results this time around but he clearly wasn't honest because he was way too biased against Trump and was way too invested in wanting to influence the Public to vote against Trump. Poor guy. He lost everything now. No one's going to believe him. Then again, who knows, maybe the Dems paid him to promote whoever was the Dems' candidate, hence his stubborn insistence that Biden was still a viable candidate right after Biden's cognitive impairment was SCANDALOUSLY shown to the entire world. ...hope it was all worth it that he lost his reputation in the process.
I Almost feel bad for this guy, arrogant as he is. He was a good analyst, but Trump Derangement syndrome has eaten his grey matter & common sense. And now he's lost all grasp on reality, and publicly shamed himself.
but the economy is actually better-republicans just really, really don't understand how the economy works. the struggles Biden faced were because of trump's mishandling of the covid-19 pandemic. trump didn't even do anything in the first 2 years of his presidency in terms of the economy-he piggybacked off of Obama's extremely productive economy.
Unemployment is low and Inflation is down by a lot but it was 9% at one point and prices never went down to previous levels. And even though now real wages are up, people can’t get over having to pay higher prices on eggs or whatever. People also blame the president for the state of the economy, whether it’s fair or not. But they don’t give credit to the president when their wages go up (they congratulate themselves instead). That’s the issue a long with the media overblowing issues that in a different time wouldn’t have been as big of a deal. That influenced people more than usual
For the economic keys there just has to be no recession during the election campaign year and real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. There is no recession, and the real per capita growth exceeds the previous terms, so those 2 keys are both true. Biden actually did quite well with the economy, especially having to fix up the mess Trump left behind. The real GDP grew around 6%, the fastest in 40 years. Unemployment went down twice as much as it was before. He passed a legislative response relief package called the 'American Rescue Plan Act'. Inflation went down, wages went up. The stock market went up, he brought up the minimum wage. The problem with some of the media is that they don't mention any achievements and mention issues that weren't a problem before and then they make a big deal out of it now, and when they constantly mention it, this can get into people heads and influence them, and they only think about those issues. They can mention these issues and because in is happening during his term then they blame him for it. All this happened because of Trump, also Trump giving misinformation, spreading it around in all sorts of ways, Fox News, X, his campaign rally's, people believing in it. One thing is if there is something that is affecting them financially, they think there is a problem with the economy, for example inflation, every country is going through it. Prices rising, every country is going through it, it's not just America.
@@matthewbucher8227 he’s good at his job and very intelligent. A lot of leftists are. Not denying that. It’s his explanation that kills his credibility. Conservatives don’t pretend to be bipartisan but liberals do. This guy is masquerading as some independent guy. That’s where I take issue. His explanation is pathetic. He’s a weasel.
@@gregtenor4018 Yes I know, he showed no bias back then. This time he said if Democrats ditch Biden it would be their demise then when they threw Harris in he suddenly changed his tune saying the Democrats will still win and kept spewing hate towards Trump.
I am sure Michelangelo would agree. Science works until you get contamination. This election was contaminated by Harris being thrown in at the last moment. Scientists need to trust the model, but some are to ignorant to understand his keys work until the data is impacted by data that has not been considered before. His model has worked well due to the very solid basis for that data. I have read all of his keys, and they make 100% sense. Before one comments, and calls him a clown, how about a bit of research.
Allan Lichtman’s 13 keys have been spot on for 40 years, but suddenly the comments section knows better? 😂 He’s predicting presidents, folks, not guessing lottery numbers!
A conflicting third aspect: Interpreter Bias... When the person applying the 13 keys is infected with Trump Derangement syndrome and lets his bias and arrogance cloud his objective application of the keys...
I tried using his 13 keys and I applied them as honestly and as objectively as I could. In my first pass, I got 10 keys predicting that Trump would win. I then tried to take a much more stringent and stricter application of the keys and still got 8 keys predicting a Trump win. Lichtman appears to have only had 4 or 5 keys against Kamala, but he foolishly missed out the NO CONTEST KEY (there was no primary at all, but most Democrats didn't really want Kamala) and the NO SCANDAL KEY, when we all know that the TV DEBACLE of Biden's Cognitive impairment showing up in that Debate and the fact that there was an obvious COVER UP was in itself a SCANDAL! Lichtman ignored those two. Those two would have been enough to result in 6 or 7 total keys and 6 is all you need to render the incumbent party unwinnable... Then there's the short term economy, where he ignored INFLATION, and thought of it was being "ok." Then there was the first assassination attempt against Trump which boosted his own popularity and charisma. The image of him a la Iwo Jima flag-raising photo and Dela Croix painting where he raised his first with the US flag in the background further boosted his charisma. Yet Lichtman refused to mark the "NO CHARISMATIC CHALLENGER KEY" against Kamala, ignoring the fact that many people on the fence (and former Democrats) became Trumpers thanks to that event. There's more but again, 6 keys against Kamala is all you need to accurately predict a Trump win. Lichtman could have correctly predicted the true results this time around but he clearly wasn't honest because he was way too biased against Trump and was way too invested in wanting to influence the Public to vote against Trump. Poor guy. He lost everything now. No one's going to believe him. Then again, who knows, maybe the Dems paid him to promote whoever was the Dems' candidate, hence his stubborn insistence that Biden was still a viable candidate right after Biden's cognitive impairment was SCANDALOUSLY shown to the entire world. ...hope it was all worth it that he lost his reputation in the process.
@@OrionPD This is correct, Lichtman was clearly biased in his interpretation of his own keys this time because of his obvious TDS. There is no sane person who would study his keys and not see Trump winning 8 keys minimum, clearly giving him the win. Lichtman worships Fake News mainstream media and adopts their propaganda and false narratives as fact, which is the real problem. They are totally out of touch with reality and how the vast majority of Americans live and see the world daily. If the Leftist elite wasn't so out of touch and if their mainstream media was honest, it would have been obvious Trump won most of the keys and they should have known a landslide win was coming. The Left is totally delusional and out of touch. Harris was the worst candidate in history and they were willing to give her over a billion dollars, and millions of people blindly voted for her for the most ignorant reasons imaginable. Sad.
notice he only said disinformation after the election not before. If disinformation was such a major factor why did he not call it out and still made the harris win prediction.
Your analogy is incorrect. If your work was incorrect because of the misinformation it's not a cheap excuse. Just talk to an average Yte dude and you'll see massive misinformation.
The keys are fine. Lichtman's interpretation was subjective and wrong.I see at least 7 keys moving the election direction towards Trump. For Lichhtman to not see this I have to agree....TDS
Oh my! I admired Prof. Lichtman with his 13 keys specially in the last two elections. His keys were good indicators. His problem I think is that he interpreted them with bias. He was biased for Harris, unfortunately. This creeped into his analysis of the 13 keys. And now that I see him here, not taking responsibility, not telling them he made a mistake, that's the end of his career. We all make mistakes, but doubling down and insisting it wasn't his fault, sorry prof, bye-bye-bye.
I think his keys didn't take into account inflation was a problem for people who make lower wages. White collar Americans see prices of goods as an annoyance but not a big problem. He was down to 2 keys so wasn't like the keys showed a landslide win by Harris. If you take the short and long economy key away party holding the Whitehouse loses. Professor career is teaching history not predicting elections every 4 years. You must not know much about him if you think that.
Agree 100%. Lichtman's keys would have worked if he would have applied them correctly. If 6 or more of the keys are False then Trump wins. I count 9. He counted 5. Here is a breakdown. 1. Party Mandate - False. He was CORRECT. Dems lost seats at mid-terms. 2. Contest- False. He was WRONG. Generally no primary is helpful for an incumbant, but we had no party contest for a NEW candidate which is BAD. 3. Incumbency - False. He was CORRECT. There is no incumbant. 4. Third Party - True. He was CORRECT. No significant 3rd party. 5. Short-Term Economy - False. He was WRONG. Inflation is just starting to reach acceptable levels in the past month. It will take still a year or more to to be felt. 6. Long-Term Economy - False. He was WRONG. The economy is great for the top 10% who have considerable investments. For everyone else although the job market has been strong, inflation has been too difficult for most. 7. Policy Change - Neither True nor False. He was WRONG. Although major policy was passed (Inflation Reduction Act) it was communicated poorly by Dems. And major policy on immigration was NOT passed. Disinformation was a factor. 8. Social Unrest - True. He was CORRECT. No unrest. 9. Scandal - True. He was CORRECT. No scandal. 10. Foreign/Military Success - False. He was CORRECT. No major successes. 11. Foreign/Military Failure - False. He was CORRECT. The Afghan pullout by Biden was a disaster and Gaza too. 12. Incumbent Charisma - False. He was CORRECT. There is no incumbent thus no incumbant charisma. 13. Challenger Charisma - False. He was CORRECT. Trump is charismatic to many voters.
Nah. There's no salvaging this guys career after this. And he continues to double down, wtf? Crazy. His bias is so strong he can't see beyond it! Crazy.
Do us a favor and go away now and flip your coin again in 4 years. Your explanation falls on deaf ears. You were wrong plain and simple. You came out early and you thought you would basis the voting to help the left. It backfired pal. Your time is up now. Go away.
the problem with his "Keys" is that he didn't actually ask the you or me or the local american working class what THEY think of the economy or what the Keys should be. In an election , it doesn't matter what HE thinks. It matters what the average voter thinks is going on. the only way is to TALK with them and find out, not conduct a survey or "poll" where you only talk to a 1000 people, instead of millions.
The 13 keys as rated by a 25 year old independent: 1) Party Mandate: True 2) No Primary Contest: True 3) Incumbent seeking reelection: False 4) No Third Party: True 5) Strong Short-term economy: False 6) Strong long-term economy: False 7) Major Policy Change: False 8) No Social Unrest: False 9) No Scandal: False 10) No Foreign or military failure: False 11) Major Foreign policy or military success: False 12) Charismatic incumbent: False 13) Uncharismatic opponent: False This is strictly unbiased perspective of a working class man who is a registered independent. This guy speaks of misinformation but yet appears to be peddling it.
Allen keeps spouting "disinformation" as the cause, but those things happened before and during his "predictions." Yet, he's bringing it up only after to excuse his own bias. If the key is infallible, then "disinformation" would have been taken into account before the outcome, not after. His bias is what ruined the prediction. He'd seem more credible if he would admit that.
I like Allan, but I think he misinterpreted his keys. Clearly he underestimated Trump as a charismatic challenger. That key should have been false toward Kamala. Putting economic numbers and public feelings of it to the side, the Biden administration I believe had major failings in foreign policy. That key should have been false towards Kamala. Allan is sounding very bias and his reasoning of disinformation messing up his keys does not take into account how the liberal media outlets has as well misinformed and cancel dissenting viewpoints. Remember COVID?
Lichtman actually did correctly apply "Charismatic incumbent". It's one of the few keys he did right. I'm more concerned about interpreting canceling the primary as "No primary contest"
"I was wrong."
Say it with me... it's easy.
😂😂he such a liar 😅😅😅
Genau
7:54 he did. You goof 😂
@@ceejezzyes06
Likes 161-0. You goof 😂
@@ceejezzyes06 "I was wrong because the voters were wrong" You nunce.
Too prideful to admit his own bias, so he blames the voters.
Geez, it’s just like Disney blaming the fans because they don’t like their stupid Star Wars movies/shows. I guess blaming the people you’re trying to appeal to when you lose is just the new liberal go to strategy. I say keep it up, it fails every time.
His keys work he just filled in the wrong colors. The disinformation he's talking about is himself, how ironic.
Christ, is he really blaming disinformation and not his inaccurate application of the keys?
Most of his keys predicted a trump victory, his biased eyes could never see them.
@@tamagnobose608 Yes, he clearly misread the economic signals, the problems associated with no primary contest, social unrest and, unbelievably enough, he thinks that Trump is an uncharismatic challenger. Amazing.
@@davidcoleman5860 it i amazing that you don't see T for what it is. An extreme sociopath. That is not real 'charisma'; that is ego-self-illumination!
Poor US, oh dear, oh dear! Poor world!
He’s also blaming race is um and secs is um. What else is new
Literally steals msnbc talking points to bullshat us here.
Allan Lichtman: "My prediction was not wrong, the voters got it wrong."
Ha, ha, ha.
dumb mans interpretation, who doesnt understand model assumptions. He said the opposite..
the model might be invalid as the electorate is not behaving pragmatically and rationally due to misinformation..
These kind of assumptions are behind every model.
Ties in nicely with the left in general: "Our policies are great! Many voters are bad!"
Oooh. Now it all makes sense. The voters were wrong. How come I didn't think of that?
Exactly.
What a pathetic explanation !!!!!!!
A bunch of lame excuses, he's too arrogant to face the actual reality.
He has a pretty deep explanation no more like a pathetic excuse lol
He watched msnbc for all the talking points to bs us. Glad Chis pushed back on this nonsense.
I have said since July 😅 Pathetic. In 2016 he changed sides by October. Pathetic
@@antimediaman9354 you call that deep ? wow lol🤣
Alan lichtman has made a fool of himself, because he was so arrogant about "his keys "
The funniest part is his keys were right, he was just so biased in wanting Kamala to win that he ignored objective reality to pick her as the answer where she just flat out isn't the answer.
He was biased and can't admit it.
No, he didn't. His model is based on historic facts. Like any scientific model, it can only look into the PAST. And if you'd listen & understand this video, you'd hear the problem with the 13 keys model: 7:57 "The premise of the keys was that a rational, pragmatic electorate decides whether the White House party has governed well enough" -> RATIONAL and PRAGMATIC. In a post-factual society like the US has become, people no longer vote based on objective facts. This is a severe problem for such models. 2024 might be the end of the 13-keys model.
He is a fool. He was paid to swing election
Lichtman really said Camela was charismatic lolol
All credibility lost!
nah, grifter
😂
Literally steals msnbc talking points to bullshat us here.
Can you imagine the Gen Z kids in his classes this fall semester? They are walking out of his classroom and he is walking behind them, poking his face in, trying to point out why Harris should have won. Dude's the reason they put in the campus phone booths.
so he predicted one election wrong all credibility lost okay....
Lichtman was WRONG!
This dude's scam was exposed, and he's blaming everyone but himself. No one will ever believe this clown again.
his keys were actually right , but he is so biased that he he gave the economy key to the biden administration lmao ,imagine being so biased you cant even use the system you came up with lol
No he was wrong once. That's it. A scam is something that is wrong 9 of 10 times not something that is correct 9 of 10 times and off once.
Exactly 💅🏼 I think he don’t like trump and he “said “ harris on purpose. He’s too biased now. Idk 🤷🏼♀️ what happened to him
Of course he did not like Trump, now he blames all of the things the Dems did and shift it all over to Trump!
You know Cuomo has shifted so much to reality from where he was before
Of every clown ive seen on the left, this guy is their fairy godmother.
I almost choked on my laughter there.
Lol I know. Imagine essentially saying “it’s the ‘fault’ of people who voted for Trump that he won” and thinking you’ve made any kind of meaningful point 😆🤡
he predicted Trump winning the last time using his keys.
not everyone on the left claims this idiot. One of the few bright spots of all of this is seeing Litchman's career go up in smoke.
These are just normal people in their own wheelhouse. The problem is if a filthy rich oligarch decides to support an unpopular candidate using AI and social media for personal benefit, we are powerless to the technology used. Were votes deleted or changed? we may never know.
He's digging himself a deeper hole. Career Ending
Well said
It's a perfect ending. He can always justify his losses with an asterisk. He has no evidence in support of his evidence. For a data guy I find this peculiar.
nobody will talk about him ever again after this election. getting it worng is one thing, showing your bias is another
No... Allan said things could go wrong that could change the pattern he actually said that early on
The best part is that if he wasn't so absurdly biased in supporting Harris, his system actually worked.
As far as Allen goes. He is finished. Excuses excuses excuses
This man has 0% self awareness
Shows what TDS can do to a well-educated, fairly reasonable mind.
Zero
100% Ego
Clueless
@@jasperkalu4578 if he did he wouldn't sport that ridiculous hair.
This guy completely destroyed his own credibility because of his TDS 😂😂😂😂.
Foreal that’s what I said
What does TDS mean ?
@@rubixcube3772 Trump Derangement Syndrome. Leftist extreme bias driven by irrational hatred for Trump, spread by the liberal mainstream media and leftist bubble echo chambers.
@@rubixcube3772
Trump Derangement Syndrome...
It's when some people go off the rails whenever Trump is part of the topic of conversation so they say or do things that are dishonest and senseless and end up making total fools of themselves...
@@rubixcube3772 Trump Derangement Syndrome. It's characterized by Donald Trump living rent-free in one's mind. In severe cases, the patient turns orange.
He’s a clown! A fraud! A shister
_'shyster'_
Dont talk about Trump like that !
@@bsting601 it wasn't Trump that lost and is complaining 🙄 😂😂😂
absolutey !
@@bsting601 Cmon, he was talking about Biden.
I used to like Allan Lichtman, despite his left bias, because I thought he could be objective. His lack of intellectual honesty after his blunder prediction is appalling
This dishonest goes back to the original keys themselves. He has a long term economy key, but for the 1960 election he used inflation instead of GDP as the explanation for Nixon's loss. In 2000 he said he predicted Al Gore's popular vote victory. In 2016 he said he predicted Trump's electoral college win. By 1960 standards Trump had the keys this year. This is the first completely unambiguous prediction failure for him just because of the electoral / popular vote split.
Guy just can't admit he was wrong.
Mr. Licktass was paid to lie to us 😂😅😂
He did admit he's wrong and said that he would need to update the keys.
@@yossabelchetty8355Yes, but he needs to realize he has biases. He won’t admit that. He is a leftist. Fine, but own it. Others used the keys, without bias, and found that Trump would win. His excuses are ridiculous. Also, he cannot take criticism. Not people being jerks, but genuine criticism. It’s sad really. His son is not helpful either. He helps his dad on his livestreams on his UA-cam channel.
Christ who does that remind me of? Perhaps a certain President that has never admitted a single mistake in his entire life?
@unholierthanthou111 aren't you supposed to be better?
Trump just ended this man’s whole career.
Litchman ended his own career by being deeply biased for one candidate while crowing about the "Infallible science" of his predictions.
No, Elon Musk did
Trump ended many careers.
Hillary Clinton in 2016
This year however, Trump is on a roll...
Joe Biden, Thomas Matthew Crooks, Kamala Harris, Tim Walz, and this toupee touting clown.
@@audiophiliac This is part of the five stages of the grieving process. You’re on the first stage, denial.
@@FathomlessJoy Yes, his bias got in the way. Funnily enough, when you use his own system correctly it actually points to Trump winning. His system is actually very good, however his hatred of Trump stopped him from applying his keys correctly.
This guy is full of crap.
Far left
Totally packed to the brim with shit. He is a Democrat shill and is massively bias. His keys are subjective and mists of them are his personal opinion.
We the people decide the outcome. Not Allen’s keys.
@@Jdawgzx11 Allan Lichtman: Key #14, don't trust anything I said about Keys 1 through 13.
Maybe your full of crap
Typical leftist too -- he's the only one who can't see it.
I plan to retire at 62 in another country outside the US that is free, safe and very cheap with a high quality of life. I could fully just rely on only my SS if I wanted to when that times arrives but l'll also have at least one pension, a 403 (b) and a very prolific Investment account with my Stephanie Janis Stiefel my FA. Retiring comfortably in the US these days is almost impossible.
I know this lady you just mentioned. Stephanie Janis Stiefel is a portfolio manager and investment advisor. She gained recognition as an employee of neuberger berman; a renowned investor she is. Stephanie Janis Stiefel has demonstrated expertise in investment strategies and has been involved in managing portfolios and providing guidance to clients.
I went from no money to Invest with to busting my A** off on Uber eats for four months to raise about $20k to start trading with Stephanie Janis Stiefel. I am at $128k right now and LOVING that you have to bring this up here
How can i reach Stephanie if you don't mind me asking?
Heard she’s an IA.
Please stop gentrifying countries
Well her name is 'STEPHANIE JANIS STIEFEL'. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Allan Lichtman is a perfect example of most college professors who are pompous, presumptuous, pretentious and patronizing.
Correct. The guy who only gives A's to the students who agree w him
He's also a total knucklehead drowning in his hubris. "Yeah, all the disinformation from the right tripped up my Venable Keys to Victory. That's my story and I'm sticking to it! I'm still correct and everyone else is wrong because there is no disinformation coming from the left". Said the lifelong Dem. I certainly didn't expect the Trump landslide but the fact that "The All-knowing Professor" stuck to his prediction even at the 11th hour indicates he didn't read the room. And is therefore a moron. So thrilled it was a landslide on both the popular and electoral because now there is a mandate. Combined with control over S/H and our country has a chance to be really great again!
And usually wrong.
He’s a biased moron who lost all credibility in 2016 cuz he said any Republican would’ve won in 2016
Amen!
Lichtman is clueless and pathetic. He's desperate to excuse his incompetence and broken ideology.
January 6th
Allan fake man is a certified liar 😅
so his magical keys that are never wrong didn't work cause of lies? huh? lol or if not that it was racism? lol
He watched msnbc for all the talking points to bs us. Glad Chis pushed back on this nonsense.
@@Elisa-j6s7th Nov lol
The professor has lost it. His analysis is so skewed that I feel sorry for him. He is blinded by the talking points
You don't know how models work then. Models are based on known inputs. In this case, the input is an electorate that is voting based on facts. If the electorate is voting based on lies, then the model falls apart. Garbage in = Garbage out as they say.
@@SeanUCFABSOLUTELY 💯
@@SeanUCF Lol then he should not be in the business of prediction
@@olowoaye
He's just a professor dude. He and a guy that fled the USSR came up with the model as a historical exercise and it's proved to be very good over history. Models don't always predict correctly and especially when they are given bad data. i.e all the voters voting based off of levels of disinformation that are unheard of. His model will obviously have to correct for people being a lot dumber than he originally thought.
@@SeanUCF Has the thought ever occurred to you, that maybe, just maybe, the voters actually did their research and what's considered "lies" are really not so, which led to Lichtman's analysis being skewed? Hmm?
Stop defending Lichtman and his refusal to admit fault as to why he was wrong.
Trump ended Lichtman's prediction career. It was beautiful.
😅😅😅😅
Stole his keys 🤣
This guy is a complete nutbag. People just wanted the economy to go in a different direction. He is so wrong on every angle.
Consumer prices, mainly.
CPI has come down 3x since Covid levels. Not perfect for sure, but inflation is being held in check and is on its way down as well since the Fed is able to do its job without being threatened. Gas in the $2.70s where I live also
@@Clarkticus Well, most of us are paying more and barely able to buy anything. The problems still exist without Covid, so that excuse is gone.
@@Clarkticus If you want to buy a home and start a family: a mortgage on the same home is 100% more today than if you bought in 2019. A new or used car is about 40% more. Groceries are up more than wages. If you didn't already have property and assets things are far worse today.
Yea no denying those huge problems, economy is still in a tough spot for the majority of people. I don’t believe that the economy is bad because of Biden though, interests rates are starting to head down now that Biden let the fed do its job independently which will help homebuyers and businesses eventually, releasing oil from the strategic reserve to bring prices down, working to break up monopolies etc.. negotiating better prices for prescription drugs. Clearly not enough to make the majority of people feel better though.
Total GARBAGE!
I guess you think the Springfield was is real 🤣
Literally steals msnbc talking points to bullshat us here.
Bloody hell, LOL!!!
This guy has lost his mind. He has zero credibility. Chris shouldn’t be touting this clown. I guess he had a fallback CNN moment.
Well he had him on days before the election crowing about his infallible keys, so Chris owed him a chance to explain. Funny to see him launch into all the conspiracy theories that the leftists usually say the right invented.
2024: The year that Allan Lichtman became irrelevant
Wow. The more this man speaks, the more he implodes. He needs to go away.
This election has probably sunk Lichtman’s career. The only reason people were interested in him en masse is because of his track record. No one will care what he has to say moving forward, left or right
At least that’s what my 13 Keys are telling me, but I could be wrong!
Lol
I actually don't think Allan Lichtman's keys needed to be changed. He interpreted them incorrectly and that's all he needs to say. But this inability to eat some humble pie makes hime look ridiculous. His keys have a pretty good track record. And he's wrong to say misinformation and disinformation impacted his keys. Weak.
Theyre worthless then
@@fred-62 Look I'm not the biggest fan of Lichtman but to his credit, the keys have a good track record, in general. I just don't think it's time to throw the baby out with the bathwater on the 13 keys. I appreciate Nate Silver showing Litchman that he has blindspots and Silver was able to flip the keys and predict a Trump win. However, I don't think past presidential elections had as much variability as this one. Find the Silver video and he shows there's some value there, albeit imperfect.
@@TheOxIshere Where did Nate Silver do this (apply Lichtmans keys correctly)? Was that a video or an article? Thanks!
Yeah, the dude is pathetic. Getting the election correct 9 out 11 times is still pretty damn good. But just admit it was wrong and move on. Dude is insanely arrogant.
Exactly. The KEYS work. I would say they are spot on. I got a 6-7 for Trump win. He was biased but will never admit it. Or he was out of touch.
He’s lost all credibility with me 🤡
I guess he's as credible as people who thought Trump would win in 2020
he could've just said that. I interpreted the keys wrong
@@bsting601That makes sense.
His "13 Keys" wouldn't get you into an outhouse, let alone the White House!
😂
Love this one
Ask your schools for your money back, Dewayne. You apparently didn't learn much.
😂😂😂😂😂😂
😂😂😂
His problem was he credited many of the keys to the wrong candidate.
This comment may be the winner. Exactly.
I understand the economy keys, they use objective criteria about growth. Inflation I believe negated at least one. The one he absolutely got wrong was the charisma key. Kamala had none, zero zip zilch. No following. Sure some people hate trump, but he has a large following... charisma.
@@michaelrizzuti1869
He never gave Kamala the charisma key, he said both Kamala and Trump were uncharismatic.
@@michaelrizzuti1869
He never gave Kamala the charisma key.
@@GeorgePolitis-z5o you don't understand the key, it is awarded to a charismatic challenger, ig there is not one the incumbent keeps it. kamala's lack of charisma far outwieghed the tds of Trump haters and Trump should have been awarded the key.
Disinformation are from both side. To blame disinformation is disingenious.
I'm thrilled Lichtman was wrong. He was all over TV and the internet with his prediction, and was arrogant and intolerable for months on end.
Even now in this interview, he's parroting far left anti-Trump propaganda and blaming that for his failure. Pathetic. He can't admit Trump won fair and square.
He has no idea what he’s talking about. It was all luck, the keys are garbage and he’s irrelevant. His LUCK has ran out. President TRUMP is back.
You are so correct, Robert! This guy is such a partisan on the Left that he cannot admit that he was wrong. No objectivity whatsoever! 👎🏽
So am I,he was so smug wasn't he.
Lichtman totally destroyed his own credibility. His bias and obvious TDS prevented him from interpreting his own keys properly. Everyone knows he did not use his own keys consistently with the way he used them in the past, just because he hates Trump and worships fake news mainstream media narratives. He wanted to support Biden Harris obviously. Now he's just making excuses with his typical Leftist delusions.
Didn't he predict Trump's 2016 victory ?
This is a very disappointing response from Lichtman. He could easily and understandably acknowledge that the special circumstances in this year's elections made certain keys difficult to interpret, such as the contest, incumbency and even third party keys. Instead he has gone down the rabbit hole of effectively blaming the electorate. Time to get a new electorate, then!
Ironically his Keys are fine. Kamala in theory had the first 4 keys. She was boring and Trump as Charismatic. Even if you are deluded about the economy, there wasn't any success for Biden/Harris policy wise. The Afghanistan withdrawal was major scandal if not the ousting of Biden itself.
Better to shut your mouth and be thought a fool, than open it and remove all doubt. He just can't stop.
stop what? analyzing what went wrong?
trying to silence him and engage in this level of petty narsisstic discourse is the foolishness.
@@Arguments_only not much to analyze...and you're right, his petty narcissistic discourse is foolishness.
Great proverb . My dad told me that all the time …
@@Arguments_only when you look at who he selected for winning the "key" it's just absolute comedy. He is not worthy of any respect now.
The cope is strong with this one. Instead of saying he shouldn’t have given dems his two economy keys he just goes and blames Elon and conservatives.
With his racist talking points, he's literally begging to get on msnbc, from where he copied the talking points to begin with, for the last 6 days. Pathetic sellout!
He also said the Brandon/Harris administration had a military success, and I honestly can’t figure out what on earth he’s referring to
@@kevin6293 They had no success in anything except the Chips Act. He's the one brainwashed by his news sources, then projects on us that we are not informed. He would do better with less msnbc in his life.
@@kevin6293 He said Kursk on one of his live streams and said it was bipartisan because of Lindsey Graham's approval
@@kevin6293 I can't remember exactly, but it had to do with one of Biden's negotiations dealing with Ukraine (whatever THAT was?). I don't remember details?
The arrogance is unbelievable. Americans didn’t cooperate with the keys, imagine that.
It is over. Get him out. Alan, u r fired
He's the one that was spreading disinformation with his wrong prediction 😂😂😂😂
Me thinking everyone knows the media was all for kamala and fraud talk about paying for endorsements
Right
together with Ann Selzer, I think, this pollster who was literally a liberal put their basket on Kamala to make a fake poll just to create an illusion that Kamala had the biggest momentum going to the election.
Facts
Brilliantly put.
I remember Allan saying “My keys are very robust, they go back to the horse and buggy days of American politics. They’ve withstood far greater changes than anything pertaining to this election.”
Now he’s saying, “This is because of disinformation, racism, misogyny, and xenophobia.”
So Allan must admit that his keys aren’t that robust, after all. If those things are to blame for his keys being wrong (which they aren’t lol), then his keys are worthless.
BRILLIANT! Yours is the most brilliant analysis I have read to this point!
He DID, in fact, talk about his keys being very robust (in the manner you speak of!). The problem is that when he says his keys go back that far, it's useless! When you apply a model retroactively, you will tend to apply it with the bias needed to make it "fit" the historic election year he is analyzing.
A more objective application of his model would be to make forward-looking predictions (of elections that have yet to transpire). He's been doing forward-looking predictions since 1984. And so far, he's batting 9 wins and 2 losses. There's no "fitting the results to your model" when making forward-looking predictions. That's the most objective test of the true value of the 13-keys model!
@@scholarlyanalyst7700 great comment, I agree with everything you said.
The keys may be robust but their interpretation is all up to the individual and he got half of them wrong!
@@jlkkauffman7942 Exactly, others have used his keys to predict a Trump victory. He was biased against Trump and misunderstood his own keys. He made exceptions to the rule this time such as the incumbent key.
They do go all the way back to 1860 in development and he did say before the election that something significant could shift that historical trend and thus the predictive nature of his keys. He did suggest that it was unlikely that there would be a shift this time but he left open the possibility.
In regards to him now saying this is the result of disinformation, racism, misogyny and xenephobia etc I get what you're saying. I think it's likely that at least some of those factors played a role in throwing the keys off, but, I also think Allan's possibly jumping the gun a little bit here. There would be nothing wrong with him saying something along the lines of I've not yet come to a conclusion but I suspect it was a result of, either in whole or in part these certain factors. Perhaps he just feels like he needs to come up with an answer as to why he was wrong but it would be much better for him to just admit that he's not yet sure.
What a fraud 😂😂😂😂
An anti-Trump forecaster from the start...saw right thru is obvious narrative
He is anything but neutral.
Literally steals msnbc talking points to bullshat us here.
You mean when he predicted Trump in 2016
@@raymondsmith6870no, he means when he predicted Kamala in 2024
This guy is an absolute hack…totally discredited.
What went wrong is that he did not separate his personal election preferences from the keys. if you look at it, the two economy keys should have gone to Trump which would have made Trump the winner. His own book explains that those economy keys have options that he could have used but he chose not to. It was him that was wrong not the keys but he will not admit it.
@@samjohnson517 you still believe that crap?
He wreaks of bias and let it cloud his judgement.
Agree 100 percent. When I watched him 2 weeks ago going through the keys I said wait how does he get a Harris win. The keys pointed to a Trump win. This had nothing to do with disinformation. This was the democrats took the country to far left and America brought it back to the middle
The economy improved under Biden. You're proof of what Lichtman said: Weak minded Trumpists wound up believing the pap smear that was dumped on them hourly, by Trump and Fox.
How would the economy keys go to Trump? Biden's admin corrected the huge hole Trump dumped us in, not completely, but better tan any other industrialized nation's post-covid economy. Look it up. It's a FACT. Ignorance is not stupidity, but willful ignorance is.
His arrogance just cannot let him admit he was wrong. His keys are right but he pretends the economy is great and gave that to her. Dumb! The economy is a freaking disaster!
Obviously you are misinformed. Dumb dumb
😞🪦 RIP Allan Lichtman’s credibility AND claims of objectivity.
I mean, we all have blindspots but this just hurts seeing it played out in real time.
woke ≠ awake, apparently
This guy loss all creditability shut up
I think you are right. His Keys are fine. It was his interpretation of the keys that was faulty. If he had come out and said that I think he could have managed his failed prediction.
"The economy is a freaking disaster"??? It's improved more than any other country worldwide at this time!!! Do you actually think that our economy is unique, in and of itself??! If you would stop watching conservative media, you would know that other economies around the world are STILL SUFFERING from the PANDEMIC that affected all other countries, besides ours! The misinformation in this country now rivals that of the UK--total corruption and lies!!! Where can you turn for actual, factual news anymore???!!! Certainly not Conservative Media!!! They have an agenda---but too many people are too ignorant to realize it!!!!
Lichtman is still in denial, I think his keys work but his application was not objective.
Spot on.
True, there was an anchor who challenged him on his own keys, but he refused.
I tried using his 13 keys and I applied them as honestly and as objectively as I could.
In my first pass, I got 10 keys predicting that Trump would win.
I then tried to take a much more stringent and stricter application of the keys and still got 8 keys predicting a Trump win.
Lichtman appears to have only had 4 or 5 keys against Kamala, but he foolishly missed out the NO CONTEST KEY (there was no primary at all, but most Democrats didn't really want Kamala) and the NO SCANDAL KEY, when we all know that the TV DEBACLE of Biden's Cognitive impairment showing up in that Debate and the fact that there was an obvious COVER UP was in itself a SCANDAL!
Lichtman ignored those two.
Those two would have been enough to result in 6 or 7 total keys and 6 is all you need to render the incumbent party unwinnable...
Then there's the short term economy, where he ignored INFLATION, and thought of it was being "ok."
Then there was the first assassination attempt against Trump which boosted his own popularity and charisma. The image of him a la Iwo Jima flag-raising photo and Dela Croix painting where he raised his first with the US flag in the background further boosted his charisma.
Yet Lichtman refused to mark the "NO CHARISMATIC CHALLENGER KEY" against Kamala, ignoring the fact that many people on the fence (and former Democrats) became Trumpers thanks to that event.
There's more but again, 6 keys against Kamala is all you need to accurately predict a Trump win.
Lichtman could have correctly predicted the true results this time around but he clearly wasn't honest because he was way too biased against Trump and was way too invested in wanting to influence the Public to vote against Trump.
Poor guy. He lost everything now. No one's going to believe him. Then again, who knows, maybe the Dems paid him to promote whoever was the Dems' candidate, hence his stubborn insistence that Biden was still a viable candidate right after Biden's cognitive impairment was SCANDALOUSLY shown to the entire world.
...hope it was all worth it that he lost his reputation in the process.
Exactly true
@@OrionPD Yes I found it absurd that he wouldn't acknowledge trump on the charisma key.
13 keys, 0 clues
This fellow is blinded by his favoritism for one party over another, hence his lack of objectivity being “off-key.”
so it wasTrump that ruined his keys because he's a rich guy lol Sure lets blame one more on Trump. What Weasel trying to be relevant.
True,
@@aidanhenry732 And clearly both of you are not???!!!
This is the worst analysis of all time. He has lost credibility to me. Extremely biased.
His explanation is worse than his keys .
Lol 😂😂😂
The Keys actually work. Kamala has only 2 to 4 True Keys. Depending on how to define Third Party Challenge and no Primary.
Sucks to be wrong eh Alan?
Lichtman urgently needs a rehab.
WHAT A CLOWN! 13 KEYS BULLSHIT
lol 😂
He’s a 🤡
they are fake keys
Free advice for Democrats:
Ditch people like this guy.
Also ditch the celebrities.
Listen to the 9-5 job folks.
Then here’s a Free advice for 9-5 job folks:
Next time ditch a foul mouth celebrity
And don’t elect him President
Best comment here!
@@brianwhiterman8438 Why? We won!
Lichtman really said Camela was charismatic lolol
Shhhh, do not tell them they will never figure it out. LOL
he is full of crap
He is done 🏌
I Almost feel bad for this guy, arrogant as he is. He was a good analyst, but Trump Derangement syndrome has eaten his grey matter & common sense. And now he's lost all grasp on reality, and publicly shamed himself.
He yells racism even though Obama got two terms 😂
He gave the short and long term economic outlook keys to Kamala. He blew it and won't admit it. He is toast.
but the economy is actually better-republicans just really, really don't understand how the economy works. the struggles Biden faced were because of trump's mishandling of the covid-19 pandemic. trump didn't even do anything in the first 2 years of his presidency in terms of the economy-he piggybacked off of Obama's extremely productive economy.
Unemployment is low and Inflation is down by a lot but it was 9% at one point and prices never went down to previous levels. And even though now real wages are up, people can’t get over having to pay higher prices on eggs or whatever. People also blame the president for the state of the economy, whether it’s fair or not. But they don’t give credit to the president when their wages go up (they congratulate themselves instead). That’s the issue a long with the media overblowing issues that in a different time wouldn’t have been as big of a deal. That influenced people more than usual
He thought Trump wasn't charismatic and Harris was 🤣🤣🤣
For the economic keys there just has to be no recession during the election campaign year and real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. There is no recession, and the real per capita growth exceeds the previous terms, so those 2 keys are both true. Biden actually did quite well with the economy, especially having to fix up the mess Trump left behind. The real GDP grew around 6%, the fastest in 40 years. Unemployment went down twice as much as it was before. He passed a legislative response relief package called the 'American Rescue Plan Act'. Inflation went down, wages went up. The stock market went up, he brought up the minimum wage. The problem with some of the media is that they don't mention any achievements and mention issues that weren't a problem before and then they make a big deal out of it now, and when they constantly mention it, this can get into people heads and influence them, and they only think about those issues. They can mention these issues and because in is happening during his term then they blame him for it. All this happened because of Trump, also Trump giving misinformation, spreading it around in all sorts of ways, Fox News, X, his campaign rally's, people believing in it. One thing is if there is something that is affecting them financially, they think there is a problem with the economy, for example inflation, every country is going through it. Prices rising, every country is going through it, it's not just America.
@@johnadams1281
He never gave Harris the charisma key, he found both Trump and Harris uncharismatic.
This guy is spewing disinformation as he calls out said disinformation. 👏👏👏👏👏
Hubris. He’s ideologically captured. Period. These leftists don’t even know they’re leftists. That’s the real key.
lol
He predicted Trump in 2016
@@matthewbucher8227 he’s good at his job and very intelligent. A lot of leftists are. Not denying that. It’s his explanation that kills his credibility. Conservatives don’t pretend to be bipartisan but liberals do. This guy is masquerading as some independent guy. That’s where I take issue. His explanation is pathetic. He’s a weasel.
Bias Mr. Lichtman, that’s what went wrong with your prediction. Your hatred for Trump clouded your judgement🤡
I COMPLETLY AGREE WITH YOU .❤
Umm you do realize he predicted Trump in 2016, right?
@@gregtenor4018 Yes I know, he showed no bias back then. This time he said if Democrats ditch Biden it would be their demise then when they threw Harris in he suddenly changed his tune saying the Democrats will still win and kept spewing hate towards Trump.
Your credibility is lost🤡
Unlike the President who incited an insurrection that lead to the deaths of 5 policemen and injured 150 others. That is zero credibility.
I am sure Michelangelo would agree. Science works until you get contamination. This election was contaminated by Harris being thrown in at the last moment.
Scientists need to trust the model, but some are to ignorant to understand his keys work until the data is impacted by data that has not been considered before.
His model has worked well due to the very solid basis for that data. I have read all of his keys, and they make 100% sense. Before one comments, and calls him a clown, how about a bit of research.
Allan Lichtman’s 13 keys have been spot on for 40 years, but suddenly the comments section knows better? 😂 He’s predicting presidents, folks, not guessing lottery numbers!
@@nilschul The Keyboard warriors always come out to slam people due to the hateful nature inside them.
Yeah Lichtman blew it, he's a joke.
A conflicting third aspect: Interpreter Bias... When the person applying the 13 keys is infected with Trump Derangement syndrome and lets his bias and arrogance cloud his objective application of the keys...
🎯
Wish I could thumbs up this more than one. How about I give it a meaningless key?
I tried using his 13 keys and I applied them as honestly and as objectively as I could.
In my first pass, I got 10 keys predicting that Trump would win.
I then tried to take a much more stringent and stricter application of the keys and still got 8 keys predicting a Trump win.
Lichtman appears to have only had 4 or 5 keys against Kamala, but he foolishly missed out the NO CONTEST KEY (there was no primary at all, but most Democrats didn't really want Kamala) and the NO SCANDAL KEY, when we all know that the TV DEBACLE of Biden's Cognitive impairment showing up in that Debate and the fact that there was an obvious COVER UP was in itself a SCANDAL!
Lichtman ignored those two.
Those two would have been enough to result in 6 or 7 total keys and 6 is all you need to render the incumbent party unwinnable...
Then there's the short term economy, where he ignored INFLATION, and thought of it was being "ok."
Then there was the first assassination attempt against Trump which boosted his own popularity and charisma. The image of him a la Iwo Jima flag-raising photo and Dela Croix painting where he raised his first with the US flag in the background further boosted his charisma.
Yet Lichtman refused to mark the "NO CHARISMATIC CHALLENGER KEY" against Kamala, ignoring the fact that many people on the fence (and former Democrats) became Trumpers thanks to that event.
There's more but again, 6 keys against Kamala is all you need to accurately predict a Trump win.
Lichtman could have correctly predicted the true results this time around but he clearly wasn't honest because he was way too biased against Trump and was way too invested in wanting to influence the Public to vote against Trump.
Poor guy. He lost everything now. No one's going to believe him. Then again, who knows, maybe the Dems paid him to promote whoever was the Dems' candidate, hence his stubborn insistence that Biden was still a viable candidate right after Biden's cognitive impairment was SCANDALOUSLY shown to the entire world.
...hope it was all worth it that he lost his reputation in the process.
@@OrionPD This is correct, Lichtman was clearly biased in his interpretation of his own keys this time because of his obvious TDS. There is no sane person who would study his keys and not see Trump winning 8 keys minimum, clearly giving him the win. Lichtman worships Fake News mainstream media and adopts their propaganda and false narratives as fact, which is the real problem. They are totally out of touch with reality and how the vast majority of Americans live and see the world daily. If the Leftist elite wasn't so out of touch and if their mainstream media was honest, it would have been obvious Trump won most of the keys and they should have known a landslide win was coming. The Left is totally delusional and out of touch. Harris was the worst candidate in history and they were willing to give her over a billion dollars, and millions of people blindly voted for her for the most ignorant reasons imaginable. Sad.
so his magical keys that are never wrong didn't work cause of lies? huh? lol or if not that it was racism? lol
When this professor calling names to people he does not agree proves he is a lunatic.
He's such a clown. LOL
You are so into for it - FAFO
I guess he's as credible as people who thought Trump would win in 2020
he's an old man that failed to understand and adapt the changing world around him, we shouldn't be mad at him but rather feel pity
@@bsting601 he did win, bunch of liars and cheaters XD
@@wackpendejo3000 🤣🤣😂
13 keys to retirement
What went wrong was that he allowed his ingrained bias to mess up with his judgement
Not only. His pseudoscience was bogus from the beginning.
Chris I get he is your friend, but he said some foul stuff when he was wrong and blamed it on other things. Why didn't you call him out on it.
Because Chris is not non partisan.
Because he was right ab the disinformation! But he got it wrong bc he misapplied the keys also.
He is a biased and bitter. Props to Fredo.
Dude is so delusional, its painful
wow complete BS, he lost all credibility. what a meltdown.
Wrong !!! He is so wrong !!
so his magical keys that are never wrong didn't work cause of lies? huh? lol or if not that it was racism? lol
This old man is out of touch with today's reality
The 13 keys are a worthless gimmick. Too many of them are too subjective.
"Disinformation" is such a cheap excuse. If I complete a work project incorrectly, I can't claim it was disinformation lol
If you get in trouble on your job, say, "Well it's because not enough people bought it is why this initiative lost money."
notice he only said disinformation after the election not before. If disinformation was such a major factor why did he not call it out and still made the harris win prediction.
Lichtman really said Camela was charismatic lolol
Your analogy is incorrect. If your work was incorrect because of the misinformation it's not a cheap excuse. Just talk to an average Yte dude and you'll see massive misinformation.
@@Frederick0220bro it's Ka Ma La, and he never said she was charismatic. So much disinformation.
The keys are fine. Lichtman's interpretation was subjective and wrong.I see at least 7 keys moving the election direction towards Trump. For Lichhtman to not see this I have to agree....TDS
Totally agree and I've been saying this since he made his prediction.
Lichtman’s been nailing predictions with his 13 keys for decades, but apparently the comments section just invented a better system overnight! 😂👏
@nilschul but he never had TDS.
Oh my! I admired Prof. Lichtman with his 13 keys specially in the last two elections. His keys were good indicators. His problem I think is that he interpreted them with bias. He was biased for Harris, unfortunately. This creeped into his analysis of the 13 keys. And now that I see him here, not taking responsibility, not telling them he made a mistake, that's the end of his career. We all make mistakes, but doubling down and insisting it wasn't his fault, sorry prof, bye-bye-bye.
I think his keys didn't take into account inflation was a problem for people who make lower wages. White collar Americans see prices of goods as an annoyance but not a big problem. He was down to 2 keys so wasn't like the keys showed a landslide win by Harris. If you take the short and long economy key away party holding the Whitehouse loses. Professor career is teaching history not predicting elections every 4 years. You must not know much about him if you think that.
@@Mike-01234 Then why are news organization calling him a prophet when it comes to elections? An average astrologer would have been just as good.
@@Mike-01234 We only know about him because of his 13 keys. Otherwise, he is just another history prof.
Agree 100%. Lichtman's keys would have worked if he would have applied them correctly. If 6 or more of the keys are False then Trump wins. I count 9. He counted 5. Here is a breakdown.
1. Party Mandate - False. He was CORRECT. Dems lost seats at mid-terms.
2. Contest- False. He was WRONG. Generally no primary is helpful for an incumbant, but we had no party contest for a NEW candidate which is BAD.
3. Incumbency - False. He was CORRECT. There is no incumbant.
4. Third Party - True. He was CORRECT. No significant 3rd party.
5. Short-Term Economy - False. He was WRONG. Inflation is just starting to reach acceptable levels in the past month. It will take still a year or more to to be felt.
6. Long-Term Economy - False. He was WRONG. The economy is great for the top 10% who have considerable investments. For everyone else although the job market has been strong, inflation has been too difficult for most.
7. Policy Change - Neither True nor False. He was WRONG. Although major policy was passed (Inflation Reduction Act) it was communicated poorly by Dems. And major policy on immigration was NOT passed. Disinformation was a factor.
8. Social Unrest - True. He was CORRECT. No unrest.
9. Scandal - True. He was CORRECT. No scandal.
10. Foreign/Military Success - False. He was CORRECT. No major successes.
11. Foreign/Military Failure - False. He was CORRECT. The Afghan pullout by Biden was a disaster and Gaza too.
12. Incumbent Charisma - False. He was CORRECT. There is no incumbent thus no incumbant charisma.
13. Challenger Charisma - False. He was CORRECT. Trump is charismatic to many voters.
He also got 2016 wrong.
Trump didn't win the popular vote.
Allen, this is why you should keep your emotions in-check.
Not disinformation - your TDS interfered
So this man still doesn't understand that the majority can't be all fools
Nah. There's no salvaging this guys career after this. And he continues to double down, wtf? Crazy. His bias is so strong he can't see beyond it! Crazy.
Do us a favor and go away now and flip your coin again in 4 years.
Your explanation falls on deaf ears. You were wrong plain and simple. You came out early and you thought you would basis the voting to help the left. It backfired pal. Your time is up now. Go away.
U were WRONG, point, blank-PERIOD!!!
What was so unprecedented? He was wrong, that is all.
The only thing professor Lichtman is good at is excuses.
so his magical keys that are never wrong didn't work cause of lies? huh? lol or if not that it was racism? lol
To hell with your bullshit keys. Thank God I didn't buy his crappy 13 keys to the White House book over Amazon.
This man is totally insane 😂
He is shattering his own intellectual legacy with this.
CUOMO completely sells his soul!
Allan Lichtman Your FIRED 🕺🏿🕺🏼💃💃🏿
nice
Allan lost his Keys and his mind; time for a new way of thinking.
Full of shame and disgrace, he comes out to defend himself, the more he does so, the more he discredits himself
He is a sore loser. No need to over explain it.
''It's not that I am wrong. The world is wrong.''
the problem with his "Keys" is that he didn't actually ask the you or me or the local american working class what THEY think of the economy or what the Keys should be. In an election , it doesn't matter what HE thinks. It matters what the average voter thinks is going on. the only way is to TALK with them and find out, not conduct a survey or "poll" where you only talk to a 1000 people, instead of millions.
The 13 keys as rated by a 25 year old independent:
1) Party Mandate: True
2) No Primary Contest: True
3) Incumbent seeking reelection: False
4) No Third Party: True
5) Strong Short-term economy: False
6) Strong long-term economy: False
7) Major Policy Change: False
8) No Social Unrest: False
9) No Scandal: False
10) No Foreign or military failure: False
11) Major Foreign policy or military success: False
12) Charismatic incumbent: False
13) Uncharismatic opponent: False
This is strictly unbiased perspective of a working class man who is a registered independent. This guy speaks of misinformation but yet appears to be peddling it.
Allen keeps spouting "disinformation" as the cause, but those things happened before and during his "predictions." Yet, he's bringing it up only after to excuse his own bias. If the key is infallible, then "disinformation" would have been taken into account before the outcome, not after. His bias is what ruined the prediction. He'd seem more credible if he would admit that.
bingo
This guys got a fragile ego.
The keys were perfect lol
I like Allan, but I think he misinterpreted his keys.
Clearly he underestimated Trump as a charismatic challenger. That key should have been false toward Kamala.
Putting economic numbers and public feelings of it to the side, the Biden administration I believe had major failings in foreign policy. That key should have been false towards Kamala.
Allan is sounding very bias and his reasoning of disinformation messing up his keys does not take into account how the liberal media outlets has as well misinformed and cancel dissenting viewpoints. Remember COVID?
Lichtman actually did correctly apply "Charismatic incumbent". It's one of the few keys he did right.
I'm more concerned about interpreting canceling the primary as "No primary contest"