North Korea Threatens the South. But This Time It Is Different.
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- Опубліковано 3 лип 2024
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Production: Hubert Walas
Research & analysis: Oskar Pietrewicz
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You don’t think China would be happy to support and fund North K just to keep the US bogged down in wars
Is that Bernie Sanders on the right at 0:31?
Please correct your spelling in the video thumbnail. If I did not know your channel already I’d avoid it as a newcomer. “Rasing” mean destroying.
The issue with north korea saying it will only respond to "provocations" is that they will label anything they feel useful to them to be "provactive", regaurdless of if it actually is or not
Yup. Look Russia.
Then it would be the end of his ridiculous regime.
Okay but think about their situation as the most sanctioned country in the world.
@@littleboy3459 That's the problem. This poster is NOT 'thinking'. Just reacting and repeating US/Japan and south Korean talking points.
Any one 'thinking' knows that BOTH sides consider whatever the other those in terms of defense as provactive because they are in a state of war.
It could be also a sign that the Kim family is starting loose grip on the nation to a degree and wants to take back control by showing "threats" of war
North Korea forgets that the Delete Button also works on North Korean politicians and oligarchs.....
The terms politicians and oligarchs are too advanced for North Korea. They are basically an hermit ancient kingdom that has managed to learn and adopt some modern technologies and nuclear weapons. They then use the nuclear weapon to blackmail the West and South Korea into giving them humanitarian aid which helps the monarchy keep the peasants fed and stable. The able bodied peasants are sent to work overseas to make us dollars, which the Kim family then uses to smuggle luxury goods and technologies in.
South Korea's military is something that often gets very little attention in these types of vids
It could probably go through 3-4 complete cycles of attrition and still have enough left kill every north Korean two times over
As I have come to understand it, when an authoritarian regime does some chest-beating, it is usually meant for internal domestic audiences rather than external international ones. That's why they often say things that seem so nonsensical to "us in the collective West".
This is not true. In fact the opposite is true. They tell you exactly what they want to do. Nothing about it is deception, they have no one to tell them no, they are surrounded by yes men. Why the world is "shocked" they do what they said they were going to do is the bigger mystery to me.
It depends. In this case, the problem is, does Kim know that a war would be suicide for his regime? What kind of information is he getting about the state of his military?
@@douglassun8456he knows he cannot compete in conventional warfare, he tried to do some shenanigans in 2010s but South Korea was able to deal with whatever north was trying to do. That is why Kim is so focused on nukes, he knows he is toast when it comes with conventional war.
We really are just chimps with guns.
your comment is the exact representation of how wrong and stupid we are in the west. Russia never hide its intention and we thought they were bluffing. Hamas said in every manner possible that he wanted to kill every Jew in the world, we didn’t listen. Now China, North Korea and Iran have massive armies, nuclear weapons and wage war every month but again we are here thinking they are just beating their chest. It’s so idiotic to think that they militarize their entire countries just for propaganda, they have the biggest armies in the world for what? Use your brain Jesus Christ
It's all pandering to his base imo. The only way NK would make a move is if there's a conflict between China and the US brings Korea and Japan into the war. Even then, the cooperation needed between China and Korea, and even Russia would probably threated his position even more. I wouldn't take him too seriously, but never underestimate a cornered animal with a nuclear arsenal.
Well, with Ukraine going on, now would be a good time for the invasion of Taiwan. And what better way to distract the US than to talk NK into attacking SK at the same time? NK gets a chance because the US is distracted (and large promises of Chinese aid), China gets a massive distraction as it attacks Taiwan, Russia gets a US that isn't focused on Ukraine. Everyone wins... sorta
Agreed, even a questionable nuclear arsenal is still a nuclear arsenal.
I there too much of an assumption here that the Bigger Countries will start a conflict that the small ones will join in.
The scales of modern war are way too big for that, I believe it will be the other way around.
The smaller countries will start conflicts on which the Bigger Countries will capitalise to push their own Agenda against the opposition, while said opposition is preoccupied with the smaller state issues that still affect the globe.
To be fair the Kim's have proven pretty pragmatic. They know they can't even feed fheir own people which is why they often rattle their sabers: they know that the US and South Korea will throw them some foreign aid to settle down. They could over react towards aggression but nobody wants to fight north korea because there's no gain, even the south isn't super keen on the idea of peaceful reunification since the north is so poor and backwards.
13:52: I'm glad that you pointed out that North Korea's 'friendships' with China and Russia are more dysfunctional than we in the West often understand. China wants a static, reliable buffer against pro-American, democratic influences in the region. In that sense, the more they try to destabilize the status quo, the more of a headache they become for China. China also knows that it will be easier for North Korea to use their nukes against them than against the US. North Korea is a friend, but a crazy friend who carries a big knife.
It is why I don't believe that Kim attack. Not until China make a move.
And TBH, Russia would never pay them back.
I don't think you get it.
You do not understand East Asian culture well. Have you seen how Kim shook President Xi hand when they met? It's like as if he is shaking his hand like a benefactor, best friend, mentor.
For the way he shook, it is ultimately clear to us, Kim direction of North Korea is a super loyal tribute state of China.
Kim is a loyal puppet of China...
Was that rust bucket Kim Jong Un was pictured in his "new submarine?"
The last NorK soldier I recall defecting was full of tape worms.
Paper Dragon
Yea……
He was lucky to be alive after he went thru.
Heck, they had to hang a South Korean flag in his hospital room to reassure him he had in fact made it over.
Great video, as usual. I also must point out the perfect selection of the background music that you make for every video, it really makes the videos "deeper" in a sense. Thanks!
Excellent content. As usual
Thx for new video!
Thank you for covering this topic!
NICE VIDEO GOOD JOB
These videos are so well done! Good job Oskar, Hubert and Lukasz!
North Korea has more to lose if they want conflict with South Korea.
1. China and Russia won't back them if North Korea strikes first.
2. North Korea's main priority is survival at all costs
3. Economically and technologically, reunifying the peninsula under Pyongyang's control would obviously be very challenging.
4. North Korea is reusing old Soviet weaponry from 1960s.
No. He keeps saying this BS to maintain power at home.
I agree I think the probability of an invasion is low. But honestly people we’re saying that about Russian and Ukraine .
@@iattacku2773 yeah but russias leadership wrongfully thought ukraine is a failed state that wont defend itself and that ukraines population hates it own government at least as much as they hate the russian one.
There is no doubt in south korea shooting back.
There is so much Artillerie on the border, this war would kill thousands in hours.
He doesn't need to say bs to the outside world to stay in power back home. There's near zero news flow from the outside world to the average North-Korean.
@@iattacku2773 it's unlikely if they were rational, but they weren't rational
@@iattacku2773
Un lives in a total 1984 society. Its raw naked power at home because of the imagined boogeyman abroad. Not complicated or a clash of ideas. Strongmen only idea is power.
The scenario presented here is a likely one but we should not forget about the worst case. China might as a precursor to invading Taiwan want US forces to get bogged down somewhere and while Middle East might have been the place for it before, nowadays a large-scale land invasion is unlikely.. but if they can bribe/convince/coerce Kim to attack South-Korea that might do the trick. Russia has also shown it considers any kind of chaos, distraction or Western engagement in some regional conflict to it's benefit running around the world's local conflicts, trying to dose them in gasoline and light them up. China has massive leverage over the North Korea and they might use it and what Russia has promised in terms of payment for all the ammunition sent remains to be seen..
Sounds about right
@@live_free_or_perish He forget to add brainless MAGA fanatics working as Fifth Column of Putler.
I'm sure what Russia sent was food. At least that's what a leader with an ounce of compassion would want....oh wait, nevermind
@@live_free_or_perish yall are psycho
Honestly you are thinking but payment for arty shells by starting a war? Thats a bit over the top Ian Flemming type stuff. More likely oil, gas, sale of coal import and exports opened up. In addition to the good old cash. The West dumps fuel on fires China cant even be bothered to create a alliance , the US cant help but claim one with anyone in a fight.
That all said any move on Taiwan by China that results in the US coming to Taiwan's aid will almost ensure a war in Korea. Simply look at a map. The US has thousands of troops parked on Chinas door step. The East sea fleet has to sail right past ROK. Right past many US bases.
Great video
We had an opportunity to solve the North Korean problem back in the 90s. We didn't took that opportunity. We were too deluded in that lie of "the end of history" and didn't pursued complete victory over autocracies, and the chaos we live in today is the consequence of our inaction.
The same could be said with regards to how Russia went sideways after Yeltsin committed a self-coup, Nemtsov gets kicked out of parliament (and later killed), and we just watched Putin staged a false flag attack on Russian apartments, even as he invaded Georgia.
Never again. No more leniency for autocrats. No more respite for failing autocracies. It's time to recognize that peace is not merely the absence of wars. It is the obsolescence of war.
The post cold war period wasn't peace. It was deluded leniency.
You are right. The only thing those lunatics understand is military strength. They have no interest in talks or negotiations, but see it as a sign of weakness. We should have used the opportunity back then.
Greetings, my fellow hawks.
Americans extended friendship to Chinese under false hope.Messed up where there was real hope.
Yeltsin was a traitor and a thief both in politics and economics. He illegally dissolved the Union, which was on its way to a new treaty and democracy, and then sold off russian industries to western millionaires for devastatingly cheap prices and took out high interest loans which put the new, weaker russia even further into decline. Democracy in russia died in 1993 when he shelled the parliament building.
It was Chechnya that was invaded, not Georgia as you said but neither here nor there.
Bro can barely feed his people. No way war is coming
Yes, but war distracts the people from problems at home.
@@custossecretus5737 it's very hard to distract people from starving to death.
@@jabloko992yes, but a mobilised military will quell any thoughts of rebellion.
@@custossecretus5737 people who have starved to death don't tend to rebel. They also don't make good ammunition factory workers.
Also, bear in mind, said mobilised army would be very busy with a fight to the death with Uncle Sam.
He definitely can, he just doesn't want to.
good one
Super video, nice. History is something that is passionate just like geography, good job.
I love u and your vids keep it uppp ❤❤❤
Time for South Korea and the United States to increase the pace of modernization of all their military forces. Also should increase physical security and fortifications.
Nice videos bro
Japan, South Korea, Taiwan(de facto),Australia and US may become a Pacific bloc as an Atlantic one. For this, ironically, more European military solidarity is needed.
Congrats on 300k! More to come, I'm sure.
8:45 that submarine is so old that no country use it anymore
Even the Vietnam Submarine fleet is better than North Korea not to say the South Korea one + US Navy
So sick of these damn dictators.
There are still over 50 dictatorships around the world. We only hear about the big ones, Russia, China & North Korea but there are many others.
@@braxxian yeah, there are so many wacky dictators just as bad as the Kim dynasty like Turkmenistan and Eritrea where the whole country is just their playground like NK is for the Kim family. Saudi Arabia is probably the biggest one. They are allowed to do whatever and with their money hack, they infiltrate economies everywhere and no one bats an eye. It's raising some attention in the esports and sports world, but no one seems to care about their influence on other African nations or even UK and USA.
They're such noisy neighbors. So annoying.
@@braxxianrussia? Dictator? 😂😂😂 funny of you
@@exposedclickbaitaRblxif you don’t think Botox boy is a dictator you’re too far gone
lol, the Rocketman wants ppl to fear him... Not gonna happen with that hair cut, m8! ;))
Not to nitpick, but since you said it a few times I felt you might want to know you're pronouncing "guarantee" weird. The "guar-" syllable is pronounced like it rhymes with "hair". To be fair, this is a very understandable mistake because in basically all other English words containing the "ua" vowel pairing, it is pronounced the way someone would intuitively combine the "u" and "a" sounds. I have no idea why "guarantee" is the one exception to the rule.
Kim can barely afford his burger addiction let alone an actual war.
Say something meaningful for once
They cant help it, they have eaten so much propaganda its hopeless. Its like the "they are all starving" never taking the time to think about how long does it take to starve? According to North Korea it takes about 34 years and counting. It never occur to them what they are told is a lie. North Korea is a lot of things but rarely anything you here in the West. @@redpipola
Wonderful
the problem is that north korea has never really wanted to reunite with south korea peacefully, since they knew full well that if that were to happen the resulting korea would come to be dominated by the economic power of the south.
Friendly advice: "Guarantee", the 'u' is silent. It's pronounced "Garantee"
ESL debuff
It’s the 2020’s, the party keeps on wilding. Kimmy doesn’t want to be left out of this squid game
It's a response to the threat of the south's cultural dominance. This would be proved out with either an increase in prosecution of people violating the existing laws or creation of new ones in the near future.
I had to come back to an older video to hear the polish accent again
Nuclear weapons is for achieving interests and warnings.
I'd say it's more for preventing yourself form being nuked or invaded.
Facts about why not only the US but the whole world considers nuclear and biochemical and missile forces not as part of the comprehensive military evaluation at all.
Thanks for another great video!🇦🇺👴🏻
Love your content. Btw, guarantee is pronounced Gare-en-tee, the u is silent. No w sound in the word
Love your videos.❤
15:47 That not exactly so cut and dry the ship that sunk didn't show signs of an explosion but a collision. In the same time period a US warship was operating close by that same US ship had damage indication a collision with something.
Great graphics. But, why the “snow” in the video?
Mountains, gorilla warfare, bacon, bacon bacon
_gorilla warfare_
Pork warfare.
Dwarf warfare
Rocket man is at it again.
Countdown before South Korea developes its own nukes. And with a foe as psychotic like this, this makes sense.
I'd imagine south Korea could be testing nuclear weapons in about a few weeks after the facilities are done construction
You’re brainwashed
All out War decade here we go
We can't deter North Korea, China, Russia, and Iran at the same time.
Does all seem to be building up simultaneously. Perhaps so China can take Taiwan without US interference they can get their proxies to fight instead and distract the US.
If the US has made it's army so it can engage in two simultaneous wars then I guess all that means is you want yours to be the third war.
Some Korean number stations changed behavior too...
there is a typo on the miniature
They are just now launching satellites, which probably have density measurements of 3ppi.
Its a good video , lots of good info and its not some crap propaganda thanks. I will say that its hard to be fair to the DPRK as it is so ingrained in your video at 15:14 you point out that "North Korea VIOLATED the agreement " then follow this with a much quieter "after the South suspended parts of the agreement" If some one cancels parts of a deal you make their is no deal. Its like saying North Korea stopped making payments on its new car, after the South decided to change the price of the car a year after purchase. great video
Last September North Korea developed new ballistic missile submarine.
6:17 Making the assumption that the North is able to even fight the South. The better question would be, can the South help the starving people in the north? Or how much will it cost the South to give aid to the population once they annex the north.
I don't miss caring about this for a living
The difference between the Russia/Ukraine conflict and one between North and South Korea is that the U.S would step in directly to help the South, something they haven’t done for Ukraine. That would put an end to a NK invasion pretty quickly.
Just a heads up "guarantee" is pronounced without the "u"
While these experts have said they’ve taken all the steps they normally would if they were going to attack, attacking SK right now makes exactly ZERO sense. So, this is clearly just a rhetorical change in posture than a literal one.
Russia attacking Ukraine made zero sense. Governments, especially dictatorships are made up of people who don’t necessarily follow what is sensible.
They trying to attack while bts are in conscription
There will be 4 aircraft carriers & 1 amphibious carrier in March. No one ever screws with 400 carrier aircraft alone.
The problem with North Korea is that Kim has made so many empty threats and lies, it's hard to say what he's thinking. Honestly, I'm not concerned. I don't think that the South even NEEDS help from the US or Japan, though they'll get it anyway.
"empty threats and lies," like what? I bet you have never heard him speak and everything you know comes for third party sources who have no interest in the truth.
Kim is not good, but you and I have no access to his true thoughts and feelings.
@@mountainmanmike1014 Seriously? 🙄
BRIKS= Belarus, Russia, Iran, north Korea, Syria.
Imagine being a North Korean soldier witnessing a suicide drone for the first time LMFAO
Man it’s really sad to think how dystopian the north is. The people up there have it extremely bad. I really don’t think there will be a peaceful resolution. In the west we have all been taught that the north always had a war stance towards the south. It sounds like that is actually they case now. I’m not saying North Korea will attack the south anytime soon but provocations whether intentional or accidental could lead to the deaths of millions
How?? Kim literally said hes not wanting reunification
I shiver everytine You try to pronouce guarantee :D good job anyway, love Your work
1000th like
No gwaranntees here.
What aggressive move has the DPRK done this century? and if some one says 'missiles'? Than EVERY country is aggressive . so if every country is aggressive? Just what is "aggression"?
🤖
Also consider that at its core, North Korea is a Stalinist country. Stalin MANY times through out his career, threatened resignation, war, and other similar things, not because he actually intended to do those things, but to find out what people would think about it if he did so.
6:33 “…the US and South Korean armed forces, which have both nuclear and conventional superiority.” Sorry, but South Korea doesn’t own nuclear warheads, even though it produces nuclear energy. I’m surprised I’m the first one to point out that.
Edit: I corrected grammar and punctuation mistakes.
He's not saying that both the US and South Korea possess nuclear weapons, he's saying that the US-ROK alliance possesses total military superiority, both conventional and nuclear, which it does, due to the US having a vastly larger nuclear arsenal than North Korea.
South Korea is dying off so fast that Kim just needs to wait till they shrink enough to pose no threat
South Korea isn't dying
@@maplemiles3381 South Korea sold more pet carriages than baby carriages.... What would you consider dying?
@@danielscalera6057 South Korea isn’t dying… it is Russia, China, North Korea, and Cuba that are the ones actually dying out not South Korea.
@@G-Man-half-life Do you want to deal in facts or your own world? South Korea has the fourth highest suicide rate in the world which is higher than Russia. It has the lowest fertility rate in the world and it has been creating a new low for the past few years. Again Russia is better in this regard. China and North Korea don't even publish reliable data so no point in talking about them and I have no idea how Cuba got on your list. South Korea will at best halve by the end of the century. You can even see the country is dying from sales of carriages: more pet carriages were sold than baby carriages in South Korea. You can't fix a problem until you acknowledge it exists so if you continue thinking like you are then you will wake up one day with no South Korea and no idea why.
❤️🇰🇷❤️
🙂👍
it is no wonder that kim doesn´t want to talk anymore, after what trump did...
If north korea doesn't change, it might as well as let the 2 koreas to be 2 separate countries. Why should they be reunified if they are so different and extremely difficult. Yes, don't reunify but just coexist peacefully. Just accept this separation as permanent and irreversible.
Say Russia war unlikely
LET'S GO KIM
LET'S GO KIM
LET'S GO KIM
Of course analysis that isn't analysis but jump to desired conclusions detached from reality such as assertion of conventional superiority over North Korea when the United States does not station all its forces in neither South Korea nor Japan nor Guam nor with all three combined while on political aspect the author of the video is unaware of concept of unification through confederation.
KN-23 is American designation when its actual North Korean one by romanization of its name is Hwasong-11Ga /11A and it is not based on 9K720 Iskander since it wasn't exported by Russia to North Korea and there is other similar missile in South Korea designated as Hyunmoo-2 thus will author of the video assert it is also based on Iskander without evidence to prove such bold claim?
A parade for his old generals.
Nk is like the bad kid you enable
They do this twice per year lmao 😂
The thing is that it makes sense that North Korea would invade South Korea. What ideologically driven military dictatorships like NK what to do is spread their ideology and improve their power and influence on the world stage. Successfully conquering South Korea would accomplish that. It would make them less reliant on China, make for good propaganda, weaken the position of the US, and increase their resources. I believe that's what the leadership in NK want.
I think the NK know that SK is about to collapse demographically. There will not even enough young men to defend the country. SK will have to rely on US/NATO support and even that is waning cause they have the same problem.
*clicks*
no, just attention.
*leaves*
Self omnipresence is a powerful delusional addiction. (Also see Donald Trump, Putin)
You can not seek economic guarantees from a country that is about to enter the worst economic crisis in human history
Crazy
At this point I'm sure people are just sick of the Kim Dynasty.
N Korea isn't going anywhere. It's stuck in 1953.
The phones they’re using are for sure from 1953
Just no Kim, don’t do it
I’m sure the south is just as itchy as you…. To control the entire peninsula of korea
Reunification has always been North Korea's goal.
...again?
The move against Taiwan and resulting Japanese, American, and Australian defense of the island will be the 'hostile action' that will precipitate movement by the North. If the South sides with the US and its allies, the North will attack with PRC support. Simultaneously, Iran will move to take Iraq, and Russia may expand the scope of their operations, likely officially absorbing Belarus and potentially with intent centering around Poland and the Balkans.
The end of the beginning of the next global conflict occurs in July. In August, the middle begins, and it will be soaked in blood. I have no idea how it will go, but I have two primary guesses. First is a massive PRC first strike against Australia, Japan, and the US. Second is no direct action taken against the US and its allies, but involves influence operations to split the US and Australian governments and paralyze their ability to respond. The likelihood of the second depends upon the level of infiltration in American ans Australian public, private, and military institutions that the PRC has managed in those two nations. We know the infiltration is fairly deep.
Iran doesn't need to take Iraq. Ever since Saddam was overthrown by the United States the country has become a defacto client state of Iran. The Shiite Arab Muslims control Iraq and In fact the United States routinely ignores the Iraqi govts demands for the United States to leave their territory. Iran is only interested in taking down Saudi Arabia and Israel the only two that stand in the way of Iranian regional hegemony over the Middle East.
What a sad silly little country
I wonder if he believes his own hype.
🇰🇵 will not attack but if anyone do they will defend themselves
Look Libia 🇱🇾
🇮🇶 Iraq
Siria 🇸🇾
And Iran 🇮🇷 maybe
From the thumbnail to the comments, so much miss spelling. Words arent hard yall we use them all day. Smh
Mate misspelling and saying yall and smh in his rage lol
Wait, I thought Trump fixed this.
I have always liked Kim Jong-un; he is a smart & underestimated leader.
너는 가난하게 사는게 좋은가보네
First