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Great job. I want to give you a tiny English tip however: "Component" is pronounced with emphasis on second syllable, as in "com-PO-nent" - you are pronouncing it as "COMP-o-nent" This is an easy mistake, as you are pronouncing it with the same emphasis as CONtinent. But English is tricky and likes to put bear traps in the dictionary. I hope this helps!
@@markmuller7962war crimes happen no doubt but your right... that was right around ghost of Kevin time... and inspire of larger Sq km areas being retaken and larger populated areas being retaken.... no one has ever come near the claims made at that place and time... shit even gave up on the mobile crematorium rumor.... Who would think bad things happen during war and at the start people make intense horrible claims about the enemy....
Prighozin was in a competition with Shoigu for funding, he wasn’t trying to work for the greater good of the country, that wasn’t his motivation, whether he actually believed what he was doing was good or not.
If not greater good, greater efficiency. As an experienced mercenary captain (who had Putin's ear), he could have been a good replacement if Putin had greater trust in him. As a western style warfighter, Prighozin would have suppressed corruption for his own disclosed profit. A better more efficient use of the (economic) pillars of the RuZZian state.
One of the saddest aspects of Russian society is that in the last 500 years it can be argued that Russia has not at any point experienced democracy in a way it is in the west. Thus, when a society experiences authoritarianism for as long as Russia has, it shouldn't be a surprise that the Russian people have little to no interest in politics or in the agency of every day Russians to change the course of their country.
The time Russia "experienced democracy in a way it is in the west" was the uncontrolled and forced entry of neoliberal economic "reforms" and jungle law privatisation by Yeltsin and Western economic destroyers he hired for the purpose - the reason Russians recall the collapse that attempt caused in their living standards as "der'mokratya". Putin and his governance are direct results of that - the West created him and his policies with those actions. The simplistic above view of democracy and Russian history does no-one a favour.
@@dain6250 You may like it or not, but Putin is the president only because of me and 76% of all Russians who voted for him. And this is exactly what democracy is. Fact.
Honestly one of the best appraisals of the modern geopolitical scene I have seen on youtube. Brilliant wordplay and excellent analysis. Please carry on!
The production of this video is a massive undertaking. It’s not simple to poss a single comment. “Pillar Three; The weakness of the West” struck at home. Europeean homeland was and is at stake with enormous consequence to the outcome. Strong leaders have spoken to ‘must do’, but local tribalism has spoken also. Putin got this right and gives this topic the needed introduction. Many nation states provide token assistance but lack of will to unite in a common service. The active participation by countries without land borders, Atlantic, far Pacific, and Oceana, provides evidence of support in political and material essentials. The world’s reaction to the billboard “Russia has no border” has a muted response and not a wake-up! Europe success is my success. European future is my future. And a failure is a failure for all. Video gets 5 of 5 Likes.
"Europeean homeland was and is at stake". Nah. The only thing at stake is Russian pride, whatever is left of it anyway. This war clearly shows that Russia is a paper bear, a worthy descendant of the USSR - an abject failure and wannabe empire. Russia picked on it's smaller Ukrainian cousin, and two years later all it can show for it, is both countries are set back by a decade, and still no end in sight. Europeans understand that Russia was never a real threat, and with every passing week it keeps digging it's own grave deeper and deeper.
Europe is dead it's population dying out and replaced What exactly are you proud about and what nation is yours exactly? Europe as a word has no meaning without people who historically created it
Russian people, who witnessed the consequences of the collapse of USSR, would, just like jews, for a very long time speak: "never again". That is a factor of absolute strength, no matter what are the financial aspects. West underestimates it.
I like the addition of ai generated video for stock footage, but i think it would be good to add small text in the corner "ai generated", especially in videos on politics and society. Currently its still easy enough to tell, but i bet that will change fast
There is a 7th pillar missing. Not the society is important, but the bureaucracy. If they dont profit, they dont support. Ordinary people just have to decide between fear of gulag and fear of outcomes of the war.
really? I was unaware. I just remember a hilarious middle school teacher who used to tell students they'd sound smarter if they didn't end sentences with prepositions, and then would go out of his way to end sentences in prepositions in a snarky way. @@richdobbs6595
ChatGPT, give me some common English sentences that end in prepositions. Certainly! Ending sentences with prepositions is quite common in English, despite some traditional grammatical advice against it. Here are some examples: "What are you thinking about?" "Who did you go with?" "This is the book I was telling you about." "Where did he come from?" "She's not someone I can rely on." "That's the type of movie I'm into." "What country are you from?" "Which team did she play for?" "That's the chair he sat on." "What are you looking for?"
From the beginning, there were several outcomes of this war as far as the US was concerned: 1. Russia wins quickly and subsumes Ukraine easily. As Russia's ambitions are no different now than in Tsarist or Stalinist times, it would be only a matter of time before Poland and the Baltics or Romania were next. That leads to Article 5, which leads to Russia being quickly put on the back foot in two fronts, forcing an "existential crisis", which nearly guarantees a nuclear response. 2. Russia loses quickly and is humiliated by Ukraine from overwhelming Western military support. This leads to an existential crisis, and again, chances of nuclear consequences would be unacceptably high. 3. Russia wins quickly, but is stuck dealing with a guerilla war. Russia spends years being distracted, and its demographic window of conquest closes before striking NATO. This is an unhealthy risk of turning into #1, but at least there's a chance of not ending that way.. 4. Russia and Ukraine fight a grinding war of attrition. Russia cannot commit aggression against anyone else while throwing men into a Ukrainian meatgrinder. The demographic window of conquest closes more quickly, and an exhausted Russia, whether victorious or defeated, has neither the will nor ability to sustain further aggression. When Russia failed to claim victory in their initial push, scenario #4 was underway.
It wasnt Ukraine's or the west's choice to fight a war of attrition. They always favored arrow offensives, and failed the lastone. It is Russia's preferred strategy. Most likely because that conserves their manpower best. @@theemperorofmankind3739
Russia is still sending oil and gas through pipelines that run across northern Ukraine. This is what no military activity occurs in North Ukraine. Oil and gas flows to Hungary and to Turkey. Pipelines are protected by the EU and Ukraine suffers.
Russia also still HAS to pay Ukraine for being allowed to do that. It's not that Ukraine is forced to allow the oil to pass through free of charge. it's because it's a convenient source of income for Ukraine as much as it is for Russia that those pipelines are still active. Ukraine probably weighted their options and decided the revenue was nicer than denying the Russians access to the Hungarian market. I wouldn't be surprised if that's also one of the reasons why Orban tends to stall things for some time rather than really hold on to his veto. If he agrees too quickly Russia would cut off the oil, but at the same time if he screws with Ukraine too much they also wouldn't really have any reason to allow the oil to reach Hungary.
Man, this is such a good channel. The breakdown of the complexities of the geopolitical situation in an understandable fashion is nothing short of masterful. Bravo!
Ah, I am rewatching old videos and marinating myself in Hubert’s beautiful voice to detox from the two videos that had my American compatriot narrating.
No matter your opinion of Russia's foreign policy, there is no question that for Russia's land mass, territory, population, resources, Russia is a massively underperforming nation/culture/civilzation.
It depends on which criteria you are using for measure. The modern econony used GDP or GDP/Capita which are nice figures for corporations but matter not for individuals. America and many other countries have a high GDP but 80% that wealth is being enjoyed by the few 20% (estimated) of the poulation ... especially why the Gov do not care about providing fair Healthcare, education etc to its population
under performing nation yes other nations perform much better , but not a civilization and culture, russia is a pot full of different old and beautiful cultures mixed unnaturally and against them. It is fake and not consolidate body glued by fear and blood. Only big thing there are land masses which through thousands of years changes kings, rulers and presidents and this proces will go on and on in future. This nation compare to others is to primitive for successful evolution and like we all knows best day has already far in the past.
As ever, a deep (and yet easy to follow) breakdown of what is going on in one part of the world. I really appreciate the powerful way that the ideas are broken down into very understandable ideas that encompass a wide perspective. Exceptional!
I just can't understand why US' spectacular failure in the Afghanistan retreat is not stated as a weakness of the west. And also Trump's threats to withdraw from NATO.
This was probably one of the factors that the Russian elites considered a weakness of the USA. And they decided to attack Ukraine. Was it weakness or was it a calculated act or an impulsive decision made by the White House administration. We'll probably find out about it in the next few years. In any case, this was in line with the expectations of the political elites in the Russian Federation. And what led to the war that is bleeding the Russian Federation dry. Just wait and see what happens next. As in the Chinese proverb: watch two tigers fighting from a hill...
That's cop. The americans have said they've run out of cash to supply more weapons to Ukraine. So they did not choose sh*t, they were simply unable to keep going 😂
@@julienckjm7430 What a dumb statement. I love how it's been explained a ton of times but the average russian supporter has the brain capacity of a bee so we need to say again and again. No, most of US support isn't cash, it's weapons, when you hear "100 million dollar aid" it means that the weapons delivered cost 100 million dollars combined. You don't have to pay for it has been already paid for 20 or 40 years ago, the upkeep and scrapping of these things would still require money, and that's what would happen to them if we didn't send them to Ukraine. No, they didn't run out of cash, the Putin cock sucking republicans block further aid, they could easily keep going if it's voted, which is expected in the near future. No, aid to Ukraine won't get money away from your free healthcare, all Ukraine aid combined in the two years is literally less than 5% of the yearly military budget of the US - and they kick Russia's ass so hard with it that it takes them away as a threat in the near to mid future.
i think your focusing a bit to heavily on the americans its true they play a large part in shaping events but it feels like your suggesting there the arbiters of ukraines fate which is not true the other European countries have also been effecting things in a way that might make the difference like helping ukrane establish domestic weapons manufacturing capability's
Another pillar worth mentioning is: Economic Warfare. I immediately think of Black-sea grain deal, the security issues when it comes to fertilizer & grain prices globally. The military and political leadership in Moscow has leveraged this to curry favour with African, Middle Eastern & East Asian countries. I also think of PMC economic operations in Africa and Syria. I also think back to July when Nord Stream 1 was shut off for 10 days, re-opened and at half capacity, about 2 months later they shut it off completely. I’m not as sure as to how i’d assess the success and failure of this pillar, but i do know that the central banks of the western countries site this effect in global inflation. On another (very spicy) note it’s interesting to highlight that based on the news a couple days ago.. the leadership in Kiev has caught on to this seventh pillar and is now conducting drone operations on oil & economic installations.
@@alexsilent5603 grew relatively small. Norway began to diversify its economy. In the media and Russia would have disgraced its economy, its economy would have grown significantly.
This is unlikely. The world market has long been divided and we are not given the best part of it. From a Russian perspective, I see an opportunity to form our own production of goods, at least of normal quality, to compete on the world market. Perhaps sanctions will help us get rid of the oil dependence that remains with the Soviet past.
If russia had the German economy, It would have colapsed long ago. No european country could resist such sanctions alone. Is great to have the best car or farmaceutical industry, but without free trade thoose are worth nothing, so thats why they dont diversify more.
You hit the nail on the head. That's what I've been saying since the war started. It's not in the US interest to see a complete Russian collapse. The security risk of nuclear weapons falling into the wrong hands is too great. At the same time it's not in the US interest to let Ukraine get steam rolled. So we've opted for a slow bleed, where we get to test our equipment against Russian equipment and gain valuable combat experience without exposing US troops to danger. What we are learning however, is that the impact sanctions can have on wartime production is not as dramatic as originally anticipated.
Легко обвинять народ России в бездействии, когда живешь на западе, попробуйте сами хоть что нибудь эффективное противопоставить этим властям, потом уже обвиняйте запуганный народ... И где был этот активный народ запада когда бомбили: Югославию, Сербию, Сирию, Афганистан, Ирак, Ливию?
Вы явно не знаете что думает и делает общество людей разных национальностей проживающих в РФ. Приписывая нам трусость и пофигачность вы явно пытаетесь нас судить. Всех. Судилка не отвалица?
Ну во первых россия начала свою операцию не по стандарту СССР а по стандарту НАТО, то есть хотели совершить победу маленькой профессиональной армией, что и привело к провалу в начале из масштабов, а вот именно сейчас россия перестраивает армию на стандарт СССР с примесью современных технологий
Там у автора такая каша в голове с возникновением уральской республики идель уральские😁....Самое главное истины он не знает и в его сознании укоренился такой пазл,что только мрачное ждёт в этой части мира.И несмотря на то что только на одной подлодке северного флота ядерного оружия по мощи выше чем у Пакистана он считает что это не имеет значения.
@@zychowicznabasenie5565 Do we need to make excuses because, on orders from the enemy side, we did not overthrow our leader? We do not feel guilty about anything, because Bucha and other nonsense are fakes directed by the media against Russia. There is no trial, no investigation on both sides. Only the Western press carried out a propaganda campaign. One of the main elements of propaganda in war is the dehumanization of the opponent. The same thing happened in the Yugoslav War.
bro got to sell his oil with 20% marginal increase after the war and sanctions meant to tie them down were brought on, this was 100% strategical and likely inside help was needed.
Very well assessed report, Europe is awakening to Russian brutality and lack of honesty and integrity. Slava Ukraini and Eastern Europe! Respect from Romania.
The day that the war started I was on an airplane in the air omv to Moscow . gotta say nothing serious has changed in terms of the quality of life in russia . if I was a Russian i might have done the same .
Yes. In Moscow nothing changed much yet. Because that is where the elite want the populace to be calm. In ww2 Nazi Germany did not feel any serious effects of the war in their daily life untill 1942, and in Berlin until 1943. But in many other parts of russia the economy is alot more dire since the sanctions.
The West has repeatedly reached out to Russia, but Russia could not or could not come to terms with the change in its status. It knows perfectly well that it is unable to compete with the West in terms of civilization. Russia is a peripheral country that meets the resources needs of more advanced countries. Russian elites were unable to follow the path China chose. From the peripheral country, through the semi-peripheral country to the center country. At its own request, Russia is becoming China's younger brother. The question is how long China will tolerate its younger brother's antics.
@poslednietankivparizhe Putin wanted NATO to invite russia in and be given automatic status as equivalent to the US not understanding that everyone must apply and be voted on and the US is powerful within NATO because of its economic size and military might not because it has preferential treatment like the old warsaw pact. Russia refuses to understand reality, you cannot claim to be a great power when you arent. infact the invasion of ukraine has proven that russia isnt a great power. again countries apply to join, georgia and ukraine weren't invited, infact they were rejected. funnily enough that is why they have been bullied by russia, they didnt have protection. there is no balance when russia is pathetically small in manpower and economy compared to NATO.
@@bratbrata4974"The west has repeatedly reached out..." Are you serious? I'm sure it was Russia who asked the west to join NATO and the West said no. I'm sure after that it was the west who kept pushing NATO and its military bases closer and closer to the Russian borders (unless that's what you meant by "reaching out"). It was the west that unilaterally withdrew from all the nuclear peace treaties with Russia, it wasn't the Russians. It was the west who kept invading multiple countries illegally, toppling foreign leaders even those democratically elected ones, violating international laws all the time, making them completely untrustworthy to make any sort of deal with them. Just like they promised never to move NATO one inch East but kept pushing. This is what happens when you keep believing in western propaganda.
@@bratbrata4974I would guess Russia becomes a Muslim country before it joins the West. it has more in common with Turkey Iran and Arabia than America or Europe.
@@thegoodpimps Yes, it's very likely. There is a wide range of religions in Russia. From shamanism to Orthodoxy and Islam. Something must replace the void left by the commies' work. Islam is expansive. It's very possible.
For example, the creation of the criminal code in Finland by Alexander the third, and the creation of the principality as such was a lost cause, these Russians can't do anything
@@AmonRa-z8w Дело движется к концу, Моль летает по дворцу, Какая боль, какая боль, Весь мир плюёт на эту моль! Ждём дистанционную швабру, для повышения духовноскрепности в Швабростане 🇷🇺
Bro great video, this one really was comprehensive and on point. However, I feel I have to say it. I've wanted to for a while, but now it's necessary. There is a difference in both meaning and pronunciation between the words "severally" and "severely." Been bugging me for a while, hehe.
Like any one else in the west you my friend speak mor with your feelings than your brain and not have a correct reading of situations. If you feel bad for Ukrainian feel bad and for Gaza for Afghans for Iraqis for Guatemala some time ago for Libya and so on. This war is in the interest of the so called nato then the Russia my friend. Respect from 🇦🇱 🇦🇱🇦🇱
As far as this media and the political perspective put forth by this account, dudes accent is the only thing that isn't "Western" about this media lol. He pushes US Gov/ State department narratives in all his videos and passes it off as objective analysis. Lol
Russian society is still under pressure. Such as a massive failure of central heating system, demographic collapse, mass exodus of the most educated, crippling corruption, and increasing violence from traumatized young men returned from war and neglected.
Good as always although one factor omitted is the reaction of the rest of the world outside the areas mentioned. A lot of the world does not see this as their problem. They also do not like being schooled by the West on morality and how to act against Russia when many of them were terribly exploited by the same West and Russia left them alone. The power and influence of these areas is also growing. I would love to see a video by you regarding how the event since October 7 have thrown a monkeywrench into this whole shitshow. I also hopw that humanity will one day come to it's senses.
You miss 2 important pillars: - Sense of justice: Russia believed they were entitled to a good-faith negotiation to lessen the threat of NATO coming closer, one as Khruschev offered the US. When Biden refused to negotiate, they felt - rightly - disrespected and threatened and they felt the need to claim justice by force. - Sympathy of global South: Western media hardly quotes opinion of global South so the public there is largely unaware that many global South leaders and the public multitude - while not agreeing to Russia's attack - criticize NATO's refusal to consider Russia's valid concern. Global South countries fear war and they fear the way NATO's military strength has been blindly used in the bloody interest of the US in Serbia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya.
there is no valid concern, it is manufactured as a tactic to claim territory russia wants for expansion. Russia will never be invaded, it has nuclear weapons, hell there has been reticence to even provide ukraine with some weapons because of russian nuclear threat. this invalidates every single bullshit claim russia makes. stop making silly arguments.
Great analysis. The fact that people in comments accuse the author of making both pro-West, and pro-Russian propaganda simultaneously, is evidence that the author is unbiased😅
Russias entire position is a tightrope and most things arent going as planned. Military isnt as good as they thought, thr West wasnt as weak as they thought, economically they are taking a bigger hit than they thought, and China isnt helping as much as they thought. Russia even if they kept occupied lands they have lost more than they gained.
What a delusional comment, Russian war machine is firing on all cylinders and unless Ukraine gets some serious support from its Western handlers then they are doomed.
They would loose everything if they allowed Ukraine into NATO. It would be the same to the US if Mexico or Canada entered the Warsaw pact over the cold war.... an existential threat. Sadly diplomacy failed.
@raulgobato417 Yea no. If we invaded Mexico because they allied with the Soviets we would be in the wrong. Nothing changes if Ukriane joined Nato which arguably they wouldn't have because nothing changes. We wouldn't have invaded Russia, we'd still be more.depdent on Russian oil, Nato would still flounder on military readiness? And we wouldn't have expanded 2 members
@@raulgobato417 the same type of existential threat as NATO is now only 150km to the North and West of Saint Petersburg whilst before that "threat" existed only from one direction? I agree that the russian leadership sees a threat in its european neighbours being in western organizations. But now because the west would be dumb enough to invade the country with the largest nuclear arsenal or some other made up billshit. They are afraid that the russian people see "hmm those guys were in the 90s fucked the same way we did, however now they do a lot better now while my own standard of living is not munch improving. Maybe this wokeness and western degeneracy isn't as bad as Supreme Leader of the Russian People Wladimir Putin said"
I wouldn't describe the Russian Armed Forces as weak because of their tactical failures at the beginning of the War in Ukraine. The Russian Army had been completely transformed from an massive and unwieldly Cold-War military, that was designed to fight a Third World War in Europe, to a more professional force that was mainly intended for regional security, and to maintain Russia's position as the hegemon of the post-soviet sphere. The Russian Army has been forced to slowly and painfully reverse this reform, and return back to its Cold-War styles of mass-mobilization, and now they are entirely winning the war.
Well, in our town my Polish and Baltic friends, if you want something badly you pay for it yourselves. If Russia can use 30% of its GDP to win this you can too.
Just stating the sanctions doesn't make the argument, you have to tell about how they affected Russia, while russian economy sold less oil then it could, many new factories are build, first passager plain in a ling time is starting to be assembled and etc. While germani's factories are closed dew to expencive gas. The economy of Russia is growing, but it will suffer becouse of war cost, after the war it will not be bad enough to cripple anything
Finally! A cogent and accurate description and explanation of the motivations and actions of all the parties to this conflict. The war is central but there is so much more going on around it. Well, at least Biden is finally taking steps to make China's support of Russia more painful.
12:17 It is quite different just in sheer scale. If we agree that some of the Russian troops did commit those atrocities and they weren't only aimed at the territorial defense forces (which aren't protected by the Geneva Conventions because they aren't considered actual soldiers but basically vigilantes with guns) the official international reports are somewhere around 100 people in Bucha if I recall correctly. And these were isolated incidents. Even by the highest estimations, it's hundreds of times less than for example the Volhynia massacre. 12:24 Russians reacted absolutely the same way the Americans reacted to the invasion of Iraq which was similar to the scale of the Russian invasion in 2022: some protested, but most were either preoccupied with their own problems or believed that this war was justified. People never actually rise against their rulers because of the war until their lives are directly affected by it, there's just no precedent for that in history, especially in large countries like Russia. Some might protest like it was during the Vietnam War (for 8!! years) but these protests are never large enough to stop the war. So all in all it was really strange for anyone to expect that Russians would overthrow Putin.
Nato/US is set to lose the third war this century , first Iraq, then Afganistan, now Ukraine. The Iranians won in Iraq and the Taliban won in Afghanistan. On the other hand they had a victory last century against Yugoslavia, and a temporary one against Iraq, and one against Libya in this one (2011). Syria is a stalemate. And one each against Iran and China is also coming up. This is a clash of empires.
Wrong it's an invasion of a sovereign nation. Despite the global implications most see it for what it is. Genocide being committed upon the Ukranian nation. No amount of obfuscation or Russian propaganda will change that fact.
🎯 Key Takeaways for quick navigation: 00:00 *🧠 Overview of factors contributing to the in Ukraine* - Societal, geographical, military, and personal factors have all played a role in the war. - The role of chance and Putin's perception of the world have been significant in shaping events. 02:18 *🏛️ Russia's six key pillars of strength* - Russia's position in 2022 was its strongest since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, according to Putin. - The six pillars that influenced Putin's decision to attack Ukraine were: military power, hydrocarbons and reserves, the perceived weakness of the West, Russian society, China, and nuclear weapons. 06:13 *🔍 Examining the state of Russia's six pillars* - The military power pillar has been severely damaged, exposing the Russian military's structural weaknesses. - The hydrocarbon and reserves pillar has been hit hard by Western sanctions, cutting off a major source of Russian revenue. - The perceived weakness of the West turned out to be a miscalculation, as the collective West has displayed unprecedented solidarity with Ukraine. 12:52 *🇷🇺 The role of Russian society* - Russian society has largely rallied behind Putin, with a mixture of passivity, apathy, and belief in competing with the West. - This societal pillar has withstood the blows of the past two years, despite the moral and humanitarian cost of the war. 14:09 *🇨🇳 China's role as a key pillar* - China has chosen to support Russia economically, providing a lifeline to the Kremlin and ensuring Russia is not left completely alone. - Beijing's pro-Russian stance has influenced many other countries, particularly in the Global South, to align themselves against the West. 16:47 *🚀 The importance of Russia's nuclear weapons* - Nuclear weapons have played a crucial role in the war, serving as the ultimate safeguard for Russia and a key factor in the West's rationed aid to Ukraine. - The threat of uncontrolled nuclear proliferation has influenced the West's strategic decision-making, aiming to avoid a scenario that could lead to a surprise attack on its own or allied territory. 20:25 *🔮 The future of Russia's pillars and the war in Ukraine* - The collapse or serious damage of these pillars would be required for Russia to lose the war or break down completely. - The West's actions to support Ukraine and undermine Russia's pillars have been effective, but the ultimate course of events remains uncertain. - The West's hesitation to provide more comprehensive support to Ukraine has allowed Russia to remobilize and strengthen its position, making it harder to force Russia to back down. 26:20 *🇺🇸 The role of the US in the war* - The US plays a "firefighter" role, occasionally intervening to extinguish conflicts, but is heavily paid for this by the rest of the world. - It is in the US interest to renew its own military production capabilities and significantly strengthen the Ukrainian Army's physical capabilities. - The US's decision to keep Ukraine at war is based on its desire to avoid a disastrous blow to its credibility on the international stage. 28:20 *🇷🇺 The impact of sanctions on Russia's economy* - The blow to the Russian economy from sanctions has been massive, but Russia has taken measures to mitigate the impact. - Russia's resource pillar (oil and gas) remained profitable in 2022, providing a buffer for the Russian economy. - However, the trend is negative for Russia, and further reductions in oil and gas revenues could severely weaken its war machine. 32:37 *🚢 The role of shipping and technology exports in sustaining Russia* - Greek ship owners are helping coordinate oil sales, enabling Russia to sustain its war economy. - The West has the means to target these shipping magnates, but the EU continues to prioritize their interests over the collective interests of its citizens. - Western advanced technology exports to Russia, which find their way into Russian weapons, is another issue the West needs to address. 34:42 *🇷🇺 The issue of Russia's frozen reserves* - Transferring Russia's $300 billion in frozen reserves to Ukraine would be an unprecedented event and could strain the West's credibility. - Experts advise caution, as this alone will not be a panacea, and the West has the resources to keep Ukraine financially afloat until the matter is resolved. 35:23 *🔍 The overall state of Russia's pillars* - The cost of the war for Russia and the Russians remains enormous and continues to mount. - While the situation is improving in isolated spots, such as the military, the Russian state as a collective is still very weak and can be weakened further. - Russia's reliance on China to survive the sanctions means further weakening from the point of view of its geopolitical interests. 36:13 *🔮 The way forward for the West* - The Kremlin is pushing on with the war effort, hoping for the West to break and present Russia as a victorious power. - The West needs to renew its military and institutional offensive in 2024, providing more military and financial aid to Ukraine, lowering the price cap on Russian oil, and plugging sanctions and export holes. - These actions are in the long-term interest of the countries that make up the West and can be afforded. Made with HARPA AI
When 3rd world allies like Iran and North Korea are your major support for a once so called superpower. Spain has a gdp 3x that of Iran and I'm not sure if NK has a gdp period.
Ukraine has a pretty big population, above 40 million... for perspective russia only has 130 million... putin was hoping to take kyiv in a week and add those 40 million to his country, he is now grinding against that 40 million in a fight... MAJOR miscalculation
12:06 Дорогие люди с Запада, здравствуйте. Вы не представляете себе жизни в обществе, где проблемы с независимыми судами и свободой слова. Вы, как люди, живущие в стране с +/- демократическим строем, ждете от россиян протестов, бунтов, беспорядков. А в России за брошенный в полицейского стаканчик кофе могут избить дубинками и упечь в тюрьму. Если вы студент, вас отчислят, и все труды родителей будут напрасны. Если вы работаете и поучаствовали в протестах, вас уволят и больше не возьмут на работу. А я хочу напомнить, что в России были антивоенные протесты. Хочу сказать, что вы не можете знать, что такое жить в России на постоянной основе, незачем обвинять наше гражданское общество в апатии.
Детка ты изучи как в США поступают с протестантами !!! В США женщину которая на эмоциях плюнула в полицейского засудили на пожизненное 🤯 !!! Так что у вас еще не так все плохо !
Again a lot of Eastern European biases are in this video. The most important pillar that Russia has is China but not just in the way you mention. Russia is also an Asian country and the combined force of China and Russia creates a problem for the balance of power in Asia since they two can together dominate Asia to a large extent. The only way out for Asian countries would be to help Russia so that they are not just dependent on China. I think this is one of the most important points which is not mentioned here due to a very myopic view..
Как же они пытаются делать вид, что понимают наша страну, пытаются натянуть представления о западных странах с либерально-демократичным строем на Россию. Нет. Мы другие и будем другими. У нас свой путь, а либерально-демократический путь мы попробовали в 90-ых: спасибо, больше таких экспериментов не надо.
My reaction to Russian deployment of troops to Ukraine is my own independent thinking, not affected by any political affiliation (both external and internal) as I view it strictly on a military commanding perspective which suggests me back then that Russia won't be attacking Ukraine anytime soon at least until they achieve at least around 500k troops in that area unless they want to look for a quick victory, I was right (they was looking for a quick victory)
🌐 Brilliant has prepared a special offer for the viewers of our channel. By using the link: brilliant.org/GoodTimesBadTimes , you can try out Brilliant for the first 30 days for free. The first 200 subscribers will receive a 20% discount on an annual plan.
With Hydrocarbons identified as a pillar of Russian strength, how likely do you think it was that they blew their pipeline up?
Great job. I want to give you a tiny English tip however:
"Component" is pronounced with emphasis on second syllable, as in "com-PO-nent" - you are pronouncing it as "COMP-o-nent"
This is an easy mistake, as you are pronouncing it with the same emphasis as CONtinent. But English is tricky and likes to put bear traps in the dictionary. I hope this helps!
Let's not lower ourselves at russian-like cheap propaganda by saying that Bucha was as bad as the Holocaust
@@markmuller7962war crimes happen no doubt but your right... that was right around ghost of Kevin time... and inspire of larger Sq km areas being retaken and larger populated areas being retaken.... no one has ever come near the claims made at that place and time... shit even gave up on the mobile crematorium rumor....
Who would think bad things happen during war and at the start people make intense horrible claims about the enemy....
Please! No AI generated images. They look horrible.
Prighozin was in a competition with Shoigu for funding, he wasn’t trying to work for the greater good of the country, that wasn’t his motivation, whether he actually believed what he was doing was good or not.
If not greater good, greater efficiency. As an experienced mercenary captain (who had Putin's ear), he could have been a good replacement if Putin had greater trust in him. As a western style warfighter, Prighozin would have suppressed corruption for his own disclosed profit. A better more efficient use of the (economic) pillars of the RuZZian state.
every russian elite thinks funding is the greater good !
@@sumotony👈🤡Ты же понимаешь, что на Западе коррупция в тысячу раз больше чем в России?🤔
@@Chipolinou Shoo, Russian troll.
A little Polish language lesson at 9:28 :) Sorry, didn't want to bother Lukasz on Sunday to change this. Węglowodory is the word of the day.
I'm guessing Węglowodorys are hydrocarbons!
@@Trome1200auto translate says yes
@@Trome1200 Węglowodory is already a plural ;)
Hello, what is the name of the independent analyst mentioned at 8:23 ?
@@arthurbadin5685 Mikhail Krutikhin
One of the saddest aspects of Russian society is that in the last 500 years it can be argued that Russia has not at any point experienced democracy in a way it is in the west. Thus, when a society experiences authoritarianism for as long as Russia has, it shouldn't be a surprise that the Russian people have little to no interest in politics or in the agency of every day Russians to change the course of their country.
The time Russia "experienced democracy in a way it is in the west" was the uncontrolled and forced entry of neoliberal economic "reforms" and jungle law privatisation by Yeltsin and Western economic destroyers he hired for the purpose - the reason Russians recall the collapse that attempt caused in their living standards as "der'mokratya". Putin and his governance are direct results of that - the West created him and his policies with those actions. The simplistic above view of democracy and Russian history does no-one a favour.
Actually Russia is the most democratic country in the world.
@@alexsilent5603 thank you for your input Vatnik, but today isn't opposite day.
@@dain6250 You may like it or not, but Putin is the president only because of me and 76% of all Russians who voted for him. And this is exactly what democracy is. Fact.
@@dain6250 Putin is the president because of me and 76% of all Russians who voted for him. This is democracy.
Honestly one of the best appraisals of the modern geopolitical scene I have seen on youtube. Brilliant wordplay and excellent analysis. Please carry on!
This is the dumbest thing I've ever seen and has barely any resemblance to an accurate analysis.
The production of this video is a massive undertaking. It’s not simple to poss a single comment. “Pillar Three; The weakness of the West” struck at home. Europeean homeland was and is at stake with enormous consequence to the outcome.
Strong leaders have spoken to ‘must do’, but local tribalism has spoken also. Putin got this right and gives this topic the needed introduction.
Many nation states provide token assistance but lack of will to unite in a common service. The active participation by countries without land borders, Atlantic, far Pacific, and Oceana, provides evidence of support in political and material essentials.
The world’s reaction to the billboard “Russia has no border” has a muted response and not a wake-up!
Europe success is my success. European future is my future. And a failure is a failure for all.
Video gets 5 of 5 Likes.
Truth be told its much easier to support ukraine when your economy isnt reliant on trade with russia...
AND when you 1000km+ from the frontline.
@@DanielDracohun A good starting point for establishing trade, friendships, alliances, mutual interest and defense.
"Europeean homeland was and is at stake". Nah. The only thing at stake is Russian pride, whatever is left of it anyway.
This war clearly shows that Russia is a paper bear, a worthy descendant of the USSR - an abject failure and wannabe empire.
Russia picked on it's smaller Ukrainian cousin, and two years later all it can show for it, is both countries are set back by a decade, and still no end in sight.
Europeans understand that Russia was never a real threat, and with every passing week it keeps digging it's own grave deeper and deeper.
@@TheRealSlobo Present your authority on this, your claim.
Europe is dead it's population dying out and replaced What exactly are you proud about and what nation is yours exactly? Europe as a word has no meaning without people who historically created it
Russian people, who witnessed the consequences of the collapse of USSR, would, just like jews, for a very long time speak: "never again".
That is a factor of absolute strength, no matter what are the financial aspects. West underestimates it.
But people in the west are so brainwashed they do not understand the Russian perspective in the slightest
I like the addition of ai generated video for stock footage, but i think it would be good to add small text in the corner "ai generated", especially in videos on politics and society.
Currently its still easy enough to tell, but i bet that will change fast
One of the best channels covering this geopolitical topics. Excellent video and quality as always.
not really, but if you don't know anything it sounds intelligent, I guess.
There is a 7th pillar missing. Not the society is important, but the bureaucracy. If they dont profit, they dont support. Ordinary people just have to decide between fear of gulag and fear of outcomes of the war.
I support Putin purely for his work.
@@alexsilent5603Also his invasion in Ukraine?
@@Jonathan2004- Russia is simply defending itself against an aggression from USA and Ukraine.
@@alexsilent5603 Do you genuinely believe that or are you just larping?
@@theemperorofmankind3739 This is not a matter of believing or not. This is a fact. I know it.
Something needs to be done about the tanker shadow fleet. An oil spill from one of these old ships would be a disaster.
As usual, a gem. Thank you for the video man!
I saw the title for this video and immediately appreciated the effort in not ending with a preposition.
A rule invented by grammarians without a historical basis. Its not French!
really? I was unaware. I just remember a hilarious middle school teacher who used to tell students they'd sound smarter if they didn't end sentences with prepositions, and then would go out of his way to end sentences in prepositions in a snarky way.
@@richdobbs6595
What the hell is wrong with ending a sentence on a proposition?
@@hailexiao2770 Nothing, that I can think of!
ChatGPT, give me some common English sentences that end in prepositions.
Certainly! Ending sentences with prepositions is quite common in English, despite some traditional grammatical advice against it. Here are some examples:
"What are you thinking about?"
"Who did you go with?"
"This is the book I was telling you about."
"Where did he come from?"
"She's not someone I can rely on."
"That's the type of movie I'm into."
"What country are you from?"
"Which team did she play for?"
"That's the chair he sat on."
"What are you looking for?"
From the beginning, there were several outcomes of this war as far as the US was concerned:
1. Russia wins quickly and subsumes Ukraine easily. As Russia's ambitions are no different now than in Tsarist or Stalinist times, it would be only a matter of time before Poland and the Baltics or Romania were next. That leads to Article 5, which leads to Russia being quickly put on the back foot in two fronts, forcing an "existential crisis", which nearly guarantees a nuclear response.
2. Russia loses quickly and is humiliated by Ukraine from overwhelming Western military support. This leads to an existential crisis, and again, chances of nuclear consequences would be unacceptably high.
3. Russia wins quickly, but is stuck dealing with a guerilla war. Russia spends years being distracted, and its demographic window of conquest closes before striking NATO. This is an unhealthy risk of turning into #1, but at least there's a chance of not ending that way..
4. Russia and Ukraine fight a grinding war of attrition. Russia cannot commit aggression against anyone else while throwing men into a Ukrainian meatgrinder. The demographic window of conquest closes more quickly, and an exhausted Russia, whether victorious or defeated, has neither the will nor ability to sustain further aggression.
When Russia failed to claim victory in their initial push, scenario #4 was underway.
What a lovely cope logic
@@ik3nna__ What's the non-cope logic you have?
I don't know if Russia attacking a NATO state after a quick victory in Ukraine, would be a certainty, why do you think it is?
@@ik3nna__ 2 questions:
1. How is what they said cope logic?
2. What is your non-cope outlook?
It wasnt Ukraine's or the west's choice to fight a war of attrition. They always favored arrow offensives, and failed the lastone. It is Russia's preferred strategy. Most likely because that conserves their manpower best. @@theemperorofmankind3739
The AI art looks bad, a bit cartoonish. Please don't go down that road. It doesn't look good and it's better to support human artists.
Russia is still sending oil and gas through pipelines that run across northern Ukraine. This is what no military activity occurs in North Ukraine.
Oil and gas flows to Hungary and to Turkey.
Pipelines are protected by the EU and Ukraine suffers.
Russia also still HAS to pay Ukraine for being allowed to do that. It's not that Ukraine is forced to allow the oil to pass through free of charge. it's because it's a convenient source of income for Ukraine as much as it is for Russia that those pipelines are still active. Ukraine probably weighted their options and decided the revenue was nicer than denying the Russians access to the Hungarian market.
I wouldn't be surprised if that's also one of the reasons why Orban tends to stall things for some time rather than really hold on to his veto. If he agrees too quickly Russia would cut off the oil, but at the same time if he screws with Ukraine too much they also wouldn't really have any reason to allow the oil to reach Hungary.
@@TheShadowOfZamaTechnically it's the EU that is paying Ukraine, because that money comes from European pockets 😅😂
Какая же наверное у людей потрясающая жизнь, если они все представляют себе по новостям из СНН
Man, this is such a good channel. The breakdown of the complexities of the geopolitical situation in an understandable fashion is nothing short of masterful. Bravo!
Ah, I am rewatching old videos and marinating myself in Hubert’s beautiful voice to detox from the two videos that had my American compatriot narrating.
Brilliant is SO good, that upon purchase, your future self will build a time machine (using Brilliant) and come back in time to thank you. True faccs.
No matter your opinion of Russia's foreign policy, there is no question that for Russia's land mass, territory, population, resources, Russia is a massively underperforming nation/culture/civilzation.
Communism will do that to you.
@@chico9805 Well it wasn't doing much better before it tbh
Russia is better than most western nations culturally.
It depends on which criteria you are using for measure. The modern econony used GDP or GDP/Capita which are nice figures for corporations but matter not for individuals.
America and many other countries have a high GDP but 80% that wealth is being enjoyed by the few 20% (estimated) of the poulation ... especially why the Gov do not care about providing fair Healthcare, education etc to its population
under performing nation yes other nations perform much better , but not a civilization and culture, russia is a pot full of different old and beautiful cultures mixed unnaturally and against them. It is fake and not consolidate body glued by fear and blood. Only big thing there are land masses which through thousands of years changes kings, rulers and presidents and this proces will go on and on in future. This nation compare to others is to primitive for successful evolution and like we all knows best day has already far in the past.
Russia's power depends less on it wining than on other powers losing
As ever, a deep (and yet easy to follow) breakdown of what is going on in one part of the world.
I really appreciate the powerful way that the ideas are broken down into very understandable ideas that encompass a wide perspective.
Exceptional!
Any plan that depends upon your opponent throwing in the towel when they’re able to win is a terrible plan.
I just can't understand why US' spectacular failure in the Afghanistan retreat is not stated as a weakness of the west. And also Trump's threats to withdraw from NATO.
Let's not forget the US abandoning the Kurds, which was why Mattis quit.
This was probably one of the factors that the Russian elites considered a weakness of the USA. And they decided to attack Ukraine.
Was it weakness or was it a calculated act or an impulsive decision made by the White House administration. We'll probably find out about it in the next few years.
In any case, this was in line with the expectations of the political elites in the Russian Federation. And what led to the war that is bleeding the Russian Federation dry. Just wait and see what happens next.
As in the Chinese proverb: watch two tigers fighting from a hill...
US political problems on the world stage come from the uncertainty Trump created... Trump is truly a disaster for the west
lol us went out of afghanistan . if us came with more bigger force and going house to house ,taliban whould have gone to hide in cave
That’s not the job of this channel.
"The Americans chose not to humiliate Russia" - No need, the Russian humiliated themselves.
They don't gay country justification
Yea because the U.S invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan went so well.
Trust me when I say US humiliate themselves on the daily! :D
That's cop. The americans have said they've run out of cash to supply more weapons to Ukraine. So they did not choose sh*t, they were simply unable to keep going 😂
@@julienckjm7430 What a dumb statement. I love how it's been explained a ton of times but the average russian supporter has the brain capacity of a bee so we need to say again and again. No, most of US support isn't cash, it's weapons, when you hear "100 million dollar aid" it means that the weapons delivered cost 100 million dollars combined. You don't have to pay for it has been already paid for 20 or 40 years ago, the upkeep and scrapping of these things would still require money, and that's what would happen to them if we didn't send them to Ukraine. No, they didn't run out of cash, the Putin cock sucking republicans block further aid, they could easily keep going if it's voted, which is expected in the near future. No, aid to Ukraine won't get money away from your free healthcare, all Ukraine aid combined in the two years is literally less than 5% of the yearly military budget of the US - and they kick Russia's ass so hard with it that it takes them away as a threat in the near to mid future.
If Putin had been another president, this society would not have forgiven the loss of Crimea, for which so much Russian blood was spilled.
i think your focusing a bit to heavily on the americans its true they play a large part in shaping events but it feels like your suggesting there the arbiters of ukraines fate which is not true the other European countries have also been effecting things in a way that might make the difference like helping ukrane establish domestic weapons manufacturing capability's
Another pillar worth mentioning is: Economic Warfare. I immediately think of Black-sea grain deal, the security issues when it comes to fertilizer & grain prices globally. The military and political leadership in Moscow has leveraged this to curry favour with African, Middle Eastern & East Asian countries. I also think of PMC economic operations in Africa and Syria. I also think back to July when Nord Stream 1 was shut off for 10 days, re-opened and at half capacity, about 2 months later they shut it off completely.
I’m not as sure as to how i’d assess the success and failure of this pillar, but i do know that the central banks of the western countries site this effect in global inflation.
On another (very spicy) note it’s interesting to highlight that based on the news a couple days ago.. the leadership in Kiev has caught on to this seventh pillar and is now conducting drone operations on oil & economic installations.
Kyiv*
I think another point that we can acknowledge is China backstabbing Russia
One of my favorite channels. Always so much insight.
Russia must to change their economy. Their economic growth was because, the oil prices were higher not because of Putin.
Then why Russia's economy is still growing despite thousands of sanctions?
Ah, I thought we were making our own.
@@alexsilent5603 grew relatively small. Norway began to diversify its economy. In the media and Russia would have disgraced its economy, its economy would have grown significantly.
This is unlikely. The world market has long been divided and we are not given the best part of it.
From a Russian perspective, I see an opportunity to form our own production of goods, at least of normal quality, to compete on the world market. Perhaps sanctions will help us get rid of the oil dependence that remains with the Soviet past.
If russia had the German economy, It would have colapsed long ago. No european country could resist such sanctions alone. Is great to have the best car or farmaceutical industry, but without free trade thoose are worth nothing, so thats why they dont diversify more.
This channel is such s great resource of knowledge
Very Good.Wake up call for weak western leaders.
You hit the nail on the head. That's what I've been saying since the war started. It's not in the US interest to see a complete Russian collapse. The security risk of nuclear weapons falling into the wrong hands is too great. At the same time it's not in the US interest to let Ukraine get steam rolled. So we've opted for a slow bleed, where we get to test our equipment against Russian equipment and gain valuable combat experience without exposing US troops to danger. What we are learning however, is that the impact sanctions can have on wartime production is not as dramatic as originally anticipated.
Looks like more "bad times" in the future.
Yes, history is a flat circle.
Sanctions are indeed working against the German economy.
Good stuff as Usual GTBT ❤
Love the format of this video
Легко обвинять народ России в бездействии, когда живешь на западе, попробуйте сами хоть что нибудь эффективное противопоставить этим властям, потом уже обвиняйте запуганный народ...
И где был этот активный народ запада когда бомбили: Югославию, Сербию, Сирию, Афганистан, Ирак, Ливию?
Excellent video; really enjoyed the insights
20:34 The Wagner coup was on the 23rd June btw, not July. Overall great video! Loved it
Вы явно не знаете что думает и делает общество людей разных национальностей проживающих в РФ. Приписывая нам трусость и пофигачность вы явно пытаетесь нас судить. Всех. Судилка не отвалица?
I really love your videos. Thank you 🙏 💙
Ну во первых россия начала свою операцию не по стандарту СССР а по стандарту НАТО, то есть хотели совершить победу маленькой профессиональной армией, что и привело к провалу в начале из масштабов, а вот именно сейчас россия перестраивает армию на стандарт СССР с примесью современных технологий
Там у автора такая каша в голове с возникновением уральской республики идель уральские😁....Самое главное истины он не знает и в его сознании укоренился такой пазл,что только мрачное ждёт в этой части мира.И несмотря на то что только на одной подлодке северного флота ядерного оружия по мощи выше чем у Пакистана он считает что это не имеет значения.
@@pooq6611 ну его зрителям нравится жрать откровенное дерьмо, пусть и жрут )
Can’t wait to read comments when this video will be translated to Russian. Their pov of their impairment
@@T_T408impairment as a passive society, did not mean to offend you.
@@T_T408what I meant was that I want to see how Russians will explain passive attitude of their society and their point of view- pov.
This is primitive propaganda, lol
@@zychowicznabasenie5565 Do we need to make excuses because, on orders from the enemy side, we did not overthrow our leader?
We do not feel guilty about anything, because Bucha and other nonsense are fakes directed by the media against Russia. There is no trial, no investigation on both sides. Only the Western press carried out a propaganda campaign. One of the main elements of propaganda in war is the dehumanization of the opponent. The same thing happened in the Yugoslav War.
@@Ls151000i belive the opposite, your propaganda is really advanced
Thanks for yet another excellent video
bro got to sell his oil with 20% marginal increase after the war and sanctions meant to tie them down were brought on, this was 100% strategical and likely inside help was needed.
Very well assessed report, Europe is awakening to Russian brutality and lack of honesty and integrity.
Slava Ukraini and Eastern Europe! Respect from Romania.
Found a bot with a new account, atomic heart 💔 boom!
Speak English, bot, or forever hold your tongue.
Stupid bot doesn’t know English and uses emojis instead?
@Atomic_heartMSRacism.
@Atomic_heartMS Assuming everyone in Romania are Gypsies is r4c1$m.
Great content. I didn’t make it to the end due to the frequency of the adverts
The day that the war started I was on an airplane in the air omv to Moscow . gotta say nothing serious has changed in terms of the quality of life in russia . if I was a Russian i might have done the same .
Yes. In Moscow nothing changed much yet. Because that is where the elite want the populace to be calm. In ww2 Nazi Germany did not feel any serious effects of the war in their daily life untill 1942, and in Berlin until 1943. But in many other parts of russia the economy is alot more dire since the sanctions.
@@RK-cj4ocDon't talk nonsense
@@timezero4644 Great comeback
One like for the algorythm. I'll watch it later.
I keep hoping that The West and Russia will one day fully trust each other and finally unite our people.
The West has repeatedly reached out to Russia, but Russia could not or could not come to terms with the change in its status. It knows perfectly well that it is unable to compete with the West in terms of civilization. Russia is a peripheral country that meets the resources needs of more advanced countries.
Russian elites were unable to follow the path China chose.
From the peripheral country, through the semi-peripheral country to the center country.
At its own request, Russia is becoming China's younger brother. The question is how long China will tolerate its younger brother's antics.
@poslednietankivparizhe Putin wanted NATO to invite russia in and be given automatic status as equivalent to the US not understanding that everyone must apply and be voted on and the US is powerful within NATO because of its economic size and military might not because it has preferential treatment like the old warsaw pact. Russia refuses to understand reality, you cannot claim to be a great power when you arent. infact the invasion of ukraine has proven that russia isnt a great power. again countries apply to join, georgia and ukraine weren't invited, infact they were rejected. funnily enough that is why they have been bullied by russia, they didnt have protection. there is no balance when russia is pathetically small in manpower and economy compared to NATO.
@@bratbrata4974"The west has repeatedly reached out..." Are you serious? I'm sure it was Russia who asked the west to join NATO and the West said no. I'm sure after that it was the west who kept pushing NATO and its military bases closer and closer to the Russian borders (unless that's what you meant by "reaching out"). It was the west that unilaterally withdrew from all the nuclear peace treaties with Russia, it wasn't the Russians. It was the west who kept invading multiple countries illegally, toppling foreign leaders even those democratically elected ones, violating international laws all the time, making them completely untrustworthy to make any sort of deal with them. Just like they promised never to move NATO one inch East but kept pushing.
This is what happens when you keep believing in western propaganda.
@@bratbrata4974I would guess Russia becomes a Muslim country before it joins the West. it has more in common with Turkey Iran and Arabia than America or Europe.
@@thegoodpimps Yes, it's very likely. There is a wide range of religions in Russia. From shamanism to Orthodoxy and Islam.
Something must replace the void left by the commies' work. Islam is expansive. It's very possible.
Extraordinary Analysis
There is a reason we have in Finnish verb "Ryssiä" (Muscovy 🐽🐖 ) , roughly meaning "to totally fail something".
Based on the Winter War I presume? Russia has a way of failing upwards.
For example, the creation of the criminal code in Finland by Alexander the third, and the creation of the principality as such was a lost cause, these Russians can't do anything
It’s not for nothing that Russian has the word “Chukhonets” (Finn and dirty)
@@AmonRa-z8w Дело движется к концу, Моль летает по дворцу, Какая боль, какая боль, Весь мир плюёт на эту моль! Ждём дистанционную швабру, для повышения духовноскрепности в Швабростане 🇷🇺
@@hybridarmyoffreeworldкто о чем, а левый оппозиционер о вставлении чего-то в задний проход...
Bro great video, this one really was comprehensive and on point.
However, I feel I have to say it. I've wanted to for a while, but now it's necessary. There is a difference in both meaning and pronunciation between the words "severally" and "severely." Been bugging me for a while, hehe.
Good one! Excellent analysis!
Brilliant production
Like any one else in the west you my friend speak mor with your feelings than your brain and not have a correct reading of situations. If you feel bad for Ukrainian feel bad and for Gaza for Afghans for Iraqis for Guatemala some time ago for Libya and so on. This war is in the interest of the so called nato then the Russia my friend. Respect from 🇦🇱 🇦🇱🇦🇱
Is there any way to get a downloadable transcript ( PDF) ? I want to send this to people who prefer reading over watching. Dzięki 🙏
use AI
office@gt-bt.com
As far as this media and the political perspective put forth by this account, dudes accent is the only thing that isn't "Western" about this media lol. He pushes US Gov/ State department narratives in all his videos and passes it off as objective analysis. Lol
Thank you for your excellent work. ❤
Russian society is still under pressure. Such as a massive failure of central heating system, demographic collapse, mass exodus of the most educated, crippling corruption, and increasing violence from traumatized young men returned from war and neglected.
You watch too much propaganda.Small accidents aren't mass failures.
And, Many who left are returning according to western media.
It must be easy for you to live by CNN stories
ohhh, now that i know where this channel is located, it makes soo much sense. yea nah im gonna stick to caspian report for issues concerning russia
the AI generated footage of Putin outside of his bunker requires way too much suspension of disbelief
Good as always although one factor omitted is the reaction of the rest of the world outside the areas mentioned. A lot of the world does not see this as their problem. They also do not like being schooled by the West on morality and how to act against Russia when many of them were terribly exploited by the same West and Russia left them alone. The power and influence of these areas is also growing.
I would love to see a video by you regarding how the event since October 7 have thrown a monkeywrench into this whole shitshow.
I also hopw that humanity will one day come to it's senses.
love your channel, if you ever come to Latvia i'd buy you a kvass
Excellent viewpoints to consider. Thank you.
You miss 2 important pillars:
- Sense of justice: Russia believed they were entitled to a good-faith negotiation to lessen the threat of NATO coming closer, one as Khruschev offered the US. When Biden refused to negotiate, they felt - rightly - disrespected and threatened and they felt the need to claim justice by force.
- Sympathy of global South: Western media hardly quotes opinion of global South so the public there is largely unaware that many global South leaders and the public multitude - while not agreeing to Russia's attack - criticize NATO's refusal to consider Russia's valid concern. Global South countries fear war and they fear the way NATO's military strength has been blindly used in the bloody interest of the US in Serbia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya.
there is no valid concern, it is manufactured as a tactic to claim territory russia wants for expansion. Russia will never be invaded, it has nuclear weapons, hell there has been reticence to even provide ukraine with some weapons because of russian nuclear threat. this invalidates every single bullshit claim russia makes. stop making silly arguments.
They are hypocrites, they won't acknowledge these facts and they'll keep shouting "Russians bad, Russians bad".
Great analysis. The fact that people in comments accuse the author of making both pro-West, and pro-Russian propaganda simultaneously, is evidence that the author is unbiased😅
Or evidence that people will comment whatever. It's exhausting honestly seeing how many Russian trolls and bots there are.
Stay strong democracy!🇺🇦🇺🇲🇪🇺
Democracy my ass, this war could have been avoided but Ukraine's western handlers wanted to continue instigating Russia.
"StAy StRoNg DeMoCrAcY" 🤡🤡🤡
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
23th of June, not July.
23 rd
Always brilliant reporting
Russias entire position is a tightrope and most things arent going as planned. Military isnt as good as they thought, thr West wasnt as weak as they thought, economically they are taking a bigger hit than they thought, and China isnt helping as much as they thought. Russia even if they kept occupied lands they have lost more than they gained.
What a delusional comment, Russian war machine is firing on all cylinders and unless Ukraine gets some serious support from its Western handlers then they are doomed.
They would loose everything if they allowed Ukraine into NATO. It would be the same to the US if Mexico or Canada entered the Warsaw pact over the cold war.... an existential threat. Sadly diplomacy failed.
Or Russia is holding its own against the whole of NATO and Western support for Ukraine isnt as solid as was thought
@raulgobato417 Yea no. If we invaded Mexico because they allied with the Soviets we would be in the wrong. Nothing changes if Ukriane joined Nato which arguably they wouldn't have because nothing changes. We wouldn't have invaded Russia, we'd still be more.depdent on Russian oil, Nato would still flounder on military readiness? And we wouldn't have expanded 2 members
@@raulgobato417 the same type of existential threat as NATO is now only 150km to the North and West of Saint Petersburg whilst before that "threat" existed only from one direction?
I agree that the russian leadership sees a threat in its european neighbours being in western organizations. But now because the west would be dumb enough to invade the country with the largest nuclear arsenal or some other made up billshit. They are afraid that the russian people see "hmm those guys were in the 90s fucked the same way we did, however now they do a lot better now while my own standard of living is not munch improving. Maybe this wokeness and western degeneracy isn't as bad as Supreme Leader of the Russian People Wladimir Putin said"
Your videos are very good.
As an american I am really upset the congress to stuck pass more aid
That's why the video was funded with taxpayers' money
Good video... 💯 Thanks 🙏...
I wouldn't describe the Russian Armed Forces as weak because of their tactical failures at the beginning of the War in Ukraine. The Russian Army had been completely transformed from an massive and unwieldly Cold-War military, that was designed to fight a Third World War in Europe, to a more professional force that was mainly intended for regional security, and to maintain Russia's position as the hegemon of the post-soviet sphere. The Russian Army has been forced to slowly and painfully reverse this reform, and return back to its Cold-War styles of mass-mobilization, and now they are entirely winning the war.
Let's just hope that the refusal of U.S. to deter Russia militarily or humiliate them will not be the reason for ww3
Weakness breeds war.
World War III is already underway.
Well, in our town my Polish and Baltic friends, if you want something badly you pay for it yourselves. If Russia can use 30% of its GDP to win this you can too.
Just stating the sanctions doesn't make the argument, you have to tell about how they affected Russia, while russian economy sold less oil then it could, many new factories are build, first passager plain in a ling time is starting to be assembled and etc. While germani's factories are closed dew to expencive gas. The economy of Russia is growing, but it will suffer becouse of war cost, after the war it will not be bad enough to cripple anything
Excellent perceptive analysis.
32:48 Greek sheep owners. I was so confuded whst he meant. I'm still getting used to to the dialect. Keep up the good work!
Finally! A cogent and accurate description and explanation of the motivations and actions of all the parties to this conflict. The war is central but there is so much more going on around it. Well, at least Biden is finally taking steps to make China's support of Russia more painful.
Он ничего не может сделать Клоун.Он не может даже в своей стране разбраться чтобы делать что то с другими😂
12:17 It is quite different just in sheer scale. If we agree that some of the Russian troops did commit those atrocities and they weren't only aimed at the territorial defense forces (which aren't protected by the Geneva Conventions because they aren't considered actual soldiers but basically vigilantes with guns) the official international reports are somewhere around 100 people in Bucha if I recall correctly. And these were isolated incidents. Even by the highest estimations, it's hundreds of times less than for example the Volhynia massacre.
12:24 Russians reacted absolutely the same way the Americans reacted to the invasion of Iraq which was similar to the scale of the Russian invasion in 2022: some protested, but most were either preoccupied with their own problems or believed that this war was justified. People never actually rise against their rulers because of the war until their lives are directly affected by it, there's just no precedent for that in history, especially in large countries like Russia. Some might protest like it was during the Vietnam War (for 8!! years) but these protests are never large enough to stop the war. So all in all it was really strange for anyone to expect that Russians would overthrow Putin.
The greatest mistake Ukraine made was giving up their own nuclear weapons in the early 90’s
They were Russian weapons stationed inside Ukraine.
Well put
Nato/US is set to lose the third war this century , first Iraq, then Afganistan, now Ukraine. The Iranians won in Iraq and the Taliban won in Afghanistan. On the other hand they had a victory last century against Yugoslavia, and a temporary one against Iraq, and one against Libya in this one (2011). Syria is a stalemate. And one each against Iran and China is also coming up. This is a clash of empires.
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 Nice joke bro
Well said agreed, all becomes easier once we view it through the lens of the wars being one between empires.
@@dgh25 Stick to videogames child.
@@dgh25 Youre a teeny bopper do you understand anything about the world? 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Wrong it's an invasion of a sovereign nation.
Despite the global implications most see it for what it is. Genocide being committed upon the Ukranian nation. No amount of obfuscation or Russian propaganda will change that fact.
🎯 Key Takeaways for quick navigation:
00:00 *🧠 Overview of factors contributing to the in Ukraine*
- Societal, geographical, military, and personal factors have all played a role in the war.
- The role of chance and Putin's perception of the world have been significant in shaping events.
02:18 *🏛️ Russia's six key pillars of strength*
- Russia's position in 2022 was its strongest since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, according to Putin.
- The six pillars that influenced Putin's decision to attack Ukraine were: military power, hydrocarbons and reserves, the perceived weakness of the West, Russian society, China, and nuclear weapons.
06:13 *🔍 Examining the state of Russia's six pillars*
- The military power pillar has been severely damaged, exposing the Russian military's structural weaknesses.
- The hydrocarbon and reserves pillar has been hit hard by Western sanctions, cutting off a major source of Russian revenue.
- The perceived weakness of the West turned out to be a miscalculation, as the collective West has displayed unprecedented solidarity with Ukraine.
12:52 *🇷🇺 The role of Russian society*
- Russian society has largely rallied behind Putin, with a mixture of passivity, apathy, and belief in competing with the West.
- This societal pillar has withstood the blows of the past two years, despite the moral and humanitarian cost of the war.
14:09 *🇨🇳 China's role as a key pillar*
- China has chosen to support Russia economically, providing a lifeline to the Kremlin and ensuring Russia is not left completely alone.
- Beijing's pro-Russian stance has influenced many other countries, particularly in the Global South, to align themselves against the West.
16:47 *🚀 The importance of Russia's nuclear weapons*
- Nuclear weapons have played a crucial role in the war, serving as the ultimate safeguard for Russia and a key factor in the West's rationed aid to Ukraine.
- The threat of uncontrolled nuclear proliferation has influenced the West's strategic decision-making, aiming to avoid a scenario that could lead to a surprise attack on its own or allied territory.
20:25 *🔮 The future of Russia's pillars and the war in Ukraine*
- The collapse or serious damage of these pillars would be required for Russia to lose the war or break down completely.
- The West's actions to support Ukraine and undermine Russia's pillars have been effective, but the ultimate course of events remains uncertain.
- The West's hesitation to provide more comprehensive support to Ukraine has allowed Russia to remobilize and strengthen its position, making it harder to force Russia to back down.
26:20 *🇺🇸 The role of the US in the war*
- The US plays a "firefighter" role, occasionally intervening to extinguish conflicts, but is heavily paid for this by the rest of the world.
- It is in the US interest to renew its own military production capabilities and significantly strengthen the Ukrainian Army's physical capabilities.
- The US's decision to keep Ukraine at war is based on its desire to avoid a disastrous blow to its credibility on the international stage.
28:20 *🇷🇺 The impact of sanctions on Russia's economy*
- The blow to the Russian economy from sanctions has been massive, but Russia has taken measures to mitigate the impact.
- Russia's resource pillar (oil and gas) remained profitable in 2022, providing a buffer for the Russian economy.
- However, the trend is negative for Russia, and further reductions in oil and gas revenues could severely weaken its war machine.
32:37 *🚢 The role of shipping and technology exports in sustaining Russia*
- Greek ship owners are helping coordinate oil sales, enabling Russia to sustain its war economy.
- The West has the means to target these shipping magnates, but the EU continues to prioritize their interests over the collective interests of its citizens.
- Western advanced technology exports to Russia, which find their way into Russian weapons, is another issue the West needs to address.
34:42 *🇷🇺 The issue of Russia's frozen reserves*
- Transferring Russia's $300 billion in frozen reserves to Ukraine would be an unprecedented event and could strain the West's credibility.
- Experts advise caution, as this alone will not be a panacea, and the West has the resources to keep Ukraine financially afloat until the matter is resolved.
35:23 *🔍 The overall state of Russia's pillars*
- The cost of the war for Russia and the Russians remains enormous and continues to mount.
- While the situation is improving in isolated spots, such as the military, the Russian state as a collective is still very weak and can be weakened further.
- Russia's reliance on China to survive the sanctions means further weakening from the point of view of its geopolitical interests.
36:13 *🔮 The way forward for the West*
- The Kremlin is pushing on with the war effort, hoping for the West to break and present Russia as a victorious power.
- The West needs to renew its military and institutional offensive in 2024, providing more military and financial aid to Ukraine, lowering the price cap on Russian oil, and plugging sanctions and export holes.
- These actions are in the long-term interest of the countries that make up the West and can be afforded.
Made with HARPA AI
"Washington made the strategic decision not to humiliate Russia" -> THE COPE TO END ALL COPES.
Exactly 😅😅
As if Washington hasn't acknowledged that they've literally run out of cash for more weapons supply to Ukraine 😂😂
Trolls reported, including op.
@@righthandstep5 And here is the troll!!! 🤣🤣🤣
When 3rd world allies like Iran and North Korea are your major support for a once so called superpower.
Spain has a gdp 3x that of Iran and I'm not sure if NK has a gdp period.
The DPRK has a GDP, it's just a pathetically low number.
Ukraine has a pretty big population, above 40 million... for perspective russia only has 130 million... putin was hoping to take kyiv in a week and add those 40 million to his country, he is now grinding against that 40 million in a fight... MAJOR miscalculation
*Что, реально? А Путин знает что он этого хотел?*
У Украины теперь 19-28 миллионов😂
12:06 Дорогие люди с Запада, здравствуйте. Вы не представляете себе жизни в обществе, где проблемы с независимыми судами и свободой слова. Вы, как люди, живущие в стране с +/- демократическим строем, ждете от россиян протестов, бунтов, беспорядков. А в России за брошенный в полицейского стаканчик кофе могут избить дубинками и упечь в тюрьму. Если вы студент, вас отчислят, и все труды родителей будут напрасны. Если вы работаете и поучаствовали в протестах, вас уволят и больше не возьмут на работу. А я хочу напомнить, что в России были антивоенные протесты. Хочу сказать, что вы не можете знать, что такое жить в России на постоянной основе, незачем обвинять наше гражданское общество в апатии.
Детка ты изучи как в США поступают с протестантами !!! В США женщину которая на эмоциях плюнула в полицейского засудили на пожизненное 🤯 !!! Так что у вас еще не так все плохо !
False Western propaganda
Subbed.
Again a lot of Eastern European biases are in this video. The most important pillar that Russia has is China but not just in the way you mention. Russia is also an Asian country and the combined force of China and Russia creates a problem for the balance of power in Asia since they two can together dominate Asia to a large extent. The only way out for Asian countries would be to help Russia so that they are not just dependent on China. I think this is one of the most important points which is not mentioned here due to a very myopic view..
Good stuff
Как же они пытаются делать вид, что понимают наша страну, пытаются натянуть представления о западных странах с либерально-демократичным строем на Россию. Нет. Мы другие и будем другими. У нас свой путь, а либерально-демократический путь мы попробовали в 90-ых: спасибо, больше таких экспериментов не надо.
Slave to your tsar
Это видео просто часть Проекта Пересмешник, ничего более.
I worship his shadow@@butala1776
I think you're right. Democracy is not for everyone. Animals who spent their lives in a cage don't thrive when released into the wild.
@@T_T408 Проект ЦРУ в следствии которого появилось Радио Свобода и прочий ширпотреб.
Thanks!
Why are you comparing this war with the Nazis, and not the US-supported wars of Israel and Saudi Arabia, in which way more civilians were killed?
I don't think you ACTUALLY want an answer. It's very obvious why someone would compare ANY war to WW2. It sounds like you just want to rant.
My reaction to Russian deployment of troops to Ukraine is my own independent thinking, not affected by any political affiliation (both external and internal) as I view it strictly on a military commanding perspective which suggests me back then that Russia won't be attacking Ukraine anytime soon at least until they achieve at least around 500k troops in that area unless they want to look for a quick victory, I was right (they was looking for a quick victory)