I ended up with Hokutofuji at M4e. From what I can find on SumoDB, M5e is pretty common, but it's also sorta on the lower side of where a 5-10 komisubi ends up. With Shodai and Ryuden both deserving M5e, I think it makes sense to bump Hokutofuji up a little to fill the gap. That being said, this is only my second time doing GTB, so maybe don't listen to me.
2 considerations: M15 Churanoumi (+3) - 1958 is the only recorded instance of an M15 at +3 being promoted less than M12 M1e Asanoyama (-7) - would slot in very nicely at M6e and seems within the acceptable range
They only did it for Nishikigi last time, not Tobizaru. But, that aside, it's not a bad thought. Looking back at similar instances, though, we can see how arbitrary this type of decision is-in July, Abi went 6-9 at K1W, putting him at M3W by math. Asanoyama was 8-4-3 at M4E, putting him at M3E by math, a half-rank ahead. Abi was slotted ahead of him, though. In March, Tobizaru was 6-9 at K2W (which shouldn't be treated differently, since it's still the last komusubi on the list), and Endo was 9-6 at M6E. Math put Endo a half-rank ahead, M3E vs. M3W, and in that case Endo got the higher spot. We can point to the slight differences in the examples, but by the regular way things are done, these were as close to identical examples as you're likely to find, and they were decided in opposite ways. So, in some of these cases, it's really just a guess in the end.
It can have an effect, but exactly what positive impact being in the joi has is inconsistent. That's one of the more challenging parts of these predictions-are they going to be nice to him, and if so, how nice?
I ended up with Hokutofuji at M4e. From what I can find on SumoDB, M5e is pretty common, but it's also sorta on the lower side of where a 5-10 komisubi ends up. With Shodai and Ryuden both deserving M5e, I think it makes sense to bump Hokutofuji up a little to fill the gap.
That being said, this is only my second time doing GTB, so maybe don't listen to me.
Dang our guesses are close, with the main differences being those choices you highlighted. Feels possible for someone to get a bullseye this time 🤞
I don't think anyone's had a perfect score in 25+ years of this game going on. They'll find a way to mess somebody up.
2 considerations:
M15 Churanoumi (+3) - 1958 is the only recorded instance of an M15 at +3 being promoted less than M12
M1e Asanoyama (-7) - would slot in very nicely at M6e and seems within the acceptable range
The only thing you didnt consider that i thought might happen is Hokutofugi being underdemoted and being placed ahead of Ryuden.
agree with this. They did it with the last two komusubi last basho
They only did it for Nishikigi last time, not Tobizaru. But, that aside, it's not a bad thought.
Looking back at similar instances, though, we can see how arbitrary this type of decision is-in July, Abi went 6-9 at K1W, putting him at M3W by math. Asanoyama was 8-4-3 at M4E, putting him at M3E by math, a half-rank ahead. Abi was slotted ahead of him, though. In March, Tobizaru was 6-9 at K2W (which shouldn't be treated differently, since it's still the last komusubi on the list), and Endo was 9-6 at M6E. Math put Endo a half-rank ahead, M3E vs. M3W, and in that case Endo got the higher spot.
We can point to the slight differences in the examples, but by the regular way things are done, these were as close to identical examples as you're likely to find, and they were decided in opposite ways. So, in some of these cases, it's really just a guess in the end.
I'm curious if they treat asanoyama's demotion different than takanosho's. is asanoyama being in the joi last basho saving him?
It can have an effect, but exactly what positive impact being in the joi has is inconsistent. That's one of the more challenging parts of these predictions-are they going to be nice to him, and if so, how nice?