China's Shifting Economy and Politics with Kevin Rudd
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- Опубліковано 22 тра 2024
- The relationship between the U.S. and China is complex. Kevin Rudd, former Australian Prime Minister and current president of Asia Society, has written extensively about that relationship, including his latest book, "The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping's China." Rudd discusses new developments in China’s political economy, including the impending 20th Party Congress and some of the challenges President Xi Jinping is facing due to economic difficulties, and examines their impact on U.S.-China relations moving forward.
00:00 Start
00:14 Introduction by Caroline Freund
01:55 Main Talk by Kevin Rudd
40:23 Discussion / Q&A
This program is part of UC San Diego's Susan Shirk Lecture on U.S.-China Relations and is moderated by Dean Caroline Freund, School of Global Policy and Strategy. Recorded on 07/29/2022. [9/2022] [Show ID: 38317]
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Kevin Rudd was the first western leader who suggested the concept of containing China back in 2011 in his email to Hilary Clinton who was the Secretary of State.
Is that one of the emails that Hiliary tried to get rid of?
US has military bases literally off the coast of China, in Korea, Taiwan and Japan. We are the bully!
As someone who grew up in US and spent more than 15 years working in China, I find Mr. Rudd’s perspective quite one-sided and superficial. By that, I mean he doesn't really go deep into the core social and ethnic value foundation of the chinese ppl, and the historical course of events that turned China the way it is now. He lacks firsthand expericence living in China interacting with the ppl there to understance how Chinese really thinks. His talk feels more like collection of mainstream propaganda points usually thrown around to vilify China as an emerging superpower threatening western values, while forgeting that its also a developing country with its struggles, often unfairly compared against standards that of developed, less populous countries. Most ppl just cannot fathom how enormous the population of China is and how that plays into everything like the daunting challenge of their government to maintain social stability and fabric with limited resources.
Personally I find the most valuable talkaway from this youtube video are ironically in the comments section. There are surprisingly quite a number of informed and insightful posts.
Kevin Rudd did live in China for several years
Exactly my thought as well.
He has been American-ized.
You are spot on in your comments in Rudd not just in this video but his general view on Chins. However, he is one of the more balanced and cautious analyst. Others who truly understands China like Kishore Mahubahmi are labelled pro China.
As very often, western writers have made a fortune writing and publishing volumes on the Chinese economy using western yardsticks. Their predictions have often failed but they continue on the same journey however.
…. & nobody does it better than Gordon Chang who has until this day, been writing the coming collapse of China for 20 years. The hunchback of Notradamus would have transformed & walked straight up given 20 years of predictions that never materialised.
US and the west are on the verge of total economic collapsed. There wont be a USA in 20 years.
You got your 50 cents
@@profribasmat217 yup … will be glad to donate ur 50 cents to charity in your conscious guilt name. No need to thank me , just reducing a little sin you made.
@@aforeignchinese1385 ahaha! Good for you, mate ! Add 50 cents for me too.😁
I enjoyed listening to Dr. Rudd. Nice sense of humour:
This has given me a new respect for Kevin Rudd, I always liked him. He didn't get much appreciation in Australia I thought.
@@smufer8 no one is perfect, but it must be so tempting to be corrupt
And if you’re not corrupt they’ll make sure that your compromised so you do what you’re told
Good humour goes a long way though
Deng Xioping's guidance for the country has always been to "Let some get rich first then enable the country to prosper together". Xi merely signaled that the country is embarking on the second part of Deng's guidance. Their is no turning on its head, Deng's strategy for the nation, but a faithful continuation of that strategy.
With regards to Foreign Policy, it merely evolved from Deng's time, as during Deng's time, no foreign nation was concerned about China's rise and none were determined to thwart its continuing development. That is evidently not the case today. China merely developed economically and sought to ensure its continual development. It's evident that certain nations (we all know which ones) are dead set on not letting China to continue to develop economically. Thus a more active and dynamic foreign policy is called for to remind all nations that traded with China that the global growth for the past 40 years were due precisely to the productivity growth of China; that continuing prosperity for the world cannot do without the productivity of China. When China's productivity is hampered, disrupted, or sabotaged, there is not a nation in the world today that is able to pick up the global productivity at the scale and speed as China did; besides, there is not a chance in hell that China will allow its economic interests to be sabotaged.
With regards to the idea that "the leader can never be wrong," the fallacy of this claim was self-contradicted by Rudd's very first statement that the CPC recognized that Chairman Mao was 30% wrong and 70% right. So, as a party, they recognize that the leaders can be wrong from time to time, but will never let that be the cause for diminishing the honor and dignity of the position. The honor and dignity afforded to the position is independent of the individual holding that position in so far as the person allowed to hold the position continues to honor it him/herself.
Mao was a super star … the Cultural Revolution its second largest accomplishment.
@@raimundomartin5459 Glad you appreciated his accomplishments.
@@raimundomartin5459 in case you forgot, mao is dead and not relevant to development of China since 1970s. And no, Xi is not the same as Mao in terms of the Xi regime and apparatus as much as the man tries to win over Chinese public favor by fanboying to Mao. The uncertainty whether the series of reforms combining both Western and authoritarian models would work; so many embedded differences from what Mao did.
You make it sound like China went it alone, and foreign nations just tagged along for the ride and should be thankful. Foreign investment poured in allowing for rapid development, it wouldn't have happened nearly as fast without that external support.
@@Lee-pf6od infusion of capital is a ROI bet, not actual on the ground sweat and toil. If you wish to call gambling work, by all means do so. I am sure everyone betting in Las Vegas think themselves working very hard too.
Australia has a population of around 20 million. many cities in Asia have populations excelling that. rudd was a prime minister of a population smaller than a mayor of several cities in Asia
He campaigned and won a nation-wide election to be in that position, how many officials in Asia can say the same? not enough
So the number of bums to feed determine the value of a population?
@@user-ur4dv3ts3f Democracy is not overrated at all! It is at the pinnacle of governance arrangements, one of mankind's greatest achievements.
The populations of the democracies (there are only about twenty) uniformly enjoy prosperous healthy, happy self fulfilled lives.
It is a great pity the majority of the worlds population instead suffer under autocracy and dictatorship. Many are subject to arbitrary justice and poverty.
@@clarkd1955 because they make less money (bums), they don't count as a full human being? wow
@@user-ur4dv3ts3f to paraphrase, democracy is the best of all bad options. do you have a better solution?
14-minute mark: Rudd claims that the only reason China is maintaining its "zero-covid policy" is due to this need for the party leader to 'never be wrong.' Well, it's either that, or it's the estimates by epidemiologists that millions of people will die if China doesn't maintain this policy. So, you know, China either doesn't want mass deaths, like what has happened in western countries who, regardless of deaths, want to focus on the economy and 'live with the virus.' Or, China simply values human rights, notably here - the right to life - more than they do. Also, consider what would happen if China did let the virus in; who would die? Mostly the elderly, most of whom have state-backed pensions (a huge expense for the government), and which would easily cause an economic boom as their children wouldn't be forced to care for them, and their savings could pass to their children (the Chinese are great at saving money). Simply put, the Chinese government isn't willing to sacrifice lives for the sake of the economy, unlike western countries (see the recent wars and who benefited from them for an obvious example of how western countries balance human lives and economic gain).
Or Chinese vaccines just aren’t working
@@noodleppoodle They're working fine. That's actually continuously proven during the small outbreaks which happen from time to time.
You are absolutely correct in saying " China simply values human rights - the right to life"
@@shuhuachiu263 except if you’re Uyghur, or Chinese but have a different opinion than Xi
Rudd knws nothing he thinks he knows something but as usual he is all ego and hubris.
Enlightened. Please direct me to his assessment of Australian political and economic landscapes
Kevin is now the chairman of AS, and his political views are more and more in line with Western political correctness, losing his previous objectivity and independence
I completely agree. I noticed this a while back. No matter how much he studies China he still sees China with Western eyes.
Kevin has never been pro China.
Kevi will only ever see China through the Western lense.
There is nothing politically correct about him underneath the shallow exterior. The electorate turned on him because the guy was an uncontrolled megalomanic whose staff openly complained and that's why he was so politically brutalised by his party, Julia Gillard in his first term. Mr PC Bully then cried on national TV. He used lots of polysyllables with out really saying anything at all. That at least hasn't changed. Given half the chance he would have made himself PM for life before Xi Jinping even thought about it. In fact Xi was possibly taking notes. RE His previous objectivity and independence... I've listened to my former PM (a bloke I voted for) twice now on discussing China and I won't be doing it again...
Then there's his wife worth hundreds of millions of dollars from Federal Government contracts for employment services. She tried to expand her business into the UK. They told her to get lost and stop trying to influence the UK political system.
Of course his Chinese mates are not corrupt just like him and his wife
@Bob Smith True, I am very disappointed with this speech!
@@cameronbridges6365 And your comment about what he said is...
The student basically told him he is wrong lol 😂
At least, the student sees the policy from a different perspective. Btw, the policy must have been evaluated with related experts in China.
I used to like Kevin’s speech. But very disappointed with this one, full of ideology but accusing CPC of ideology. aMOF, the CPC is very practical.
@@jenniferzhang864 And how do you explain China's downturn?
@Brandespada China simply values human rights, the right to life, more than any western countries do. Unlike governments of western countries, the Chinese government isn't willing to sacrifice lives for the sake of the economy.
The 0 Covid policy does hurt the Chinese economy, but for a long term, it will catch up.
@ Brandespada: the whole world is in downturns while China is doing much better. Every time I heard bad news about China from west, I called my family, friends in China and find out I was over worried. They are doing very well there.
Good, but cherry picked and unbalanced. Sad really. He can do better.
He has to give what his audience wants.
He can't unfortunately. No matter what he cannot let go of his neo-colonial dreams.
Why does this guy keep talking about private sector suppression? There are lots of reforms in China domestic policies to support private sector that he did not mention (for instance the Semiconductor and EV (hello Tesla China, which is a private company hugely supported by Chinese govt) supply chain; he even briefly touched on himself the concepts of self sufficiency and internal circulation, which includes promotion of domestic private industries and the opening up of mainland Chinese capital markets to foreign investors. Of course, embracing free profiteering without regard for social consequences will not be the mainstream policy anymore...American policy makers actually more worried about Chinese govt's domestic favoritism of local industries over foreign industries in coming years which means these reforms could work out well for Chinese domestic economy (otherwise, why would US policymakers even worry about China as a rival?). Another point, quite a number of Chinese companies are hybrids - both state and privately owned entities. So to promote state owned enterprise in a hybrid ownership model, also means private industry promotion. For instance look at SMIC which is sanctioned currently. Furthermore, state owned enterprises' roles are to partner with private companies on business projects or lend to private businesses (it's more akin to US public private partnership model) to foster economic development, so promotion of state owned also benefits privates. Last time I checked, the Chinese central govt never said to favor SOE at the detriment of private enterprise (unless that private enterprise is blatantly violating Chinese regulations like DIDI or Ant Financial). World is not black and white as this politician guy Kevin's spin suggests. What is clear is that China is a strategic rival to US economically. How does US maintain the lead in technology and economy? Healthy competition does not need to lead to war. Finally unification of Taiwan is such an issue bc US is afraid China would control all the chips as a result; not just Xi Jinping ideology; if Taiwan were a fishing island with nothing else, I don't think US gives a crap about its unification or not.
china trolls not allowed.
@@Erik-gg2vb who are you? First of all, I’m an investment analyst in Florida focused on US equities. Don’t be libelous. What I outlined is an analysis of facts.
@@Erik-gg2vb as an investment analyst, I’m just dissecting the economic inaccuracies of this guy Kevin’s comments. I’m sticking to what I know while you are throwing ad hominem attacks
@@alohatime2171 Seriously, what rock did you crawl out from under? Kevin Rudd, Bonnie Glaser, you don't know them?
@@Erik-gg2vb of course I know Kevin Rudd: I just like to call him this guy. That’s how I talk. If you keep with the ad hominem attacks, I will have to report you
As a Chinese, as usual, I can assure you that Kevin Rudd is always right on everything related to China with a 50% accuracy, while the other half is, well, not so right. One thing you need figure out yourself is which part is significant.
How do you, a Chinese, know of 50% accuracy?
@@_F_Y_ 50% meaning probably or randomly
So everything or 50% is right as they are not the same amount ?
He seems to be the only one who actually reads the internal CCP edicts/communications. I doubt most Chinese reads them.
@@kwanarchive Yes, I don't.
Always interesting to watch from a diff perspective. If people call China's 40 years of reform and opening a miracle, which is a reality nowadays, I think new "miracle" will be achieved again and again and again. Chinese ppl will be remembered for its confidence, creativity and hard working.
Not sure about this because a second Mao is here and Chinese people still cannot do much about it the second time around.
@@songli2156 Who is a new Mao
@@Hahaha41241 ask any one from China and see whom they are afraid of calling out the person as second Mao in public.
@@songli2156 I know people from China, they support Xi, they know the west is against China. Xi is just there at the write time. He won't let them block China.
@@songli2156 and an aging population , perhaps also a brain drain
Kevin Rudd has just got my respect!
He is just another puppet that fools you again about China😂
@@zhangyi5145 That tells a lot about you
@@smufer8 Kevin Rudd is just another bloody racist like most of "so-called-white-but-not-white-at-all" shits, although no one cares their incompetent barking any more. 😂
I am quite shocked to find Rudd is using the Sino-Vietnam War in 1979 and First Sino-Japanese War in 1895 as indicator of the present strength of PLA for military engagement. Both wars were distant history when China was weak. The war against Vietnam in 1979 was a limited war where the goal is more strategic rather than land acquisition.
With a population of nearly 1.5 billion people, whatever their policies are, I don't think China has done so badly for itself, not to mention the ability to keep such large number in peace and fed. We might not like them or understand them but maybe there is something we can learn from them.
That's the problem, though, isn't it? The US is so hell bent on maintaining global hegemony that it can't allow an obviously successful superpower to flourish unimpeded. China has to be vilified, denigrated and turned into a terrifying, almost supernatural enemy, just as the old Soviet Union was.
Sadly for us, the collective West is on it's way down, while China and its allies are on the way up. No amount of preening and bullshit on our part is going to change that.
The "nearly 1.5 billion" must not be considered as a burden or liability of the Chinese state. What made China a super power is that population. Cheap labor hostage in the claws of a dictatorship that has taken all human rights, workers rights away from the. Imagine today's China as the ancient Egypt where those slaves erected the PYRAMIDS. Living in a western capitalist society, enjoying all the sweet fruits of liberalism, western democracy, human rights, freedom of expression, one may really not realize what a hell Chinese people cope with inside that prison. I'm a Canadian and lived in China for over ten years since 2002. I have seen all of it.
学你妹。。。
@@liheliheliheli 学你比较对。一位比政府还有能力的网友
I think you missed out a 2 in figure - it is closer to 1.25 than to 1.5 Billion especially since the recent census where the accounting is not adding up.
Experts seem to indicate a real figure closer to 1.28 Billion hence dual circulation economy and closing of china by decoupling.
India has already gone past 1.4 billion and will peak at 1.7 billion still held together with more than 28 States and 8 Union Territory languages and states. GDP = Net Consumer Spending + Government Spending + Investment Spending + Export Trade Surplus.
Concerning with reducing work force and ageing population and exiting foreign investment. Who would be surprised if Export trade surplus will decline if the world population in developed countries decline and reduction of trade results between Europe and China and North America and China. this is where China earns its dollars.
Course correction is not likely more like a great leap forward - zero covid policy and one child policy (kept on 18 years beyond its use by date)
The student made a valid point, western countries are suffering because of de-industrialization and seeing that China is just trying to avoid those problems in the future.
the student also said that the general public in china is satisfied with covid policies, strong evidence suggests otherwise
Its not about industrialization or de-industrialization. Its about the govt putting food on the table to feed 1.4B people.
@@sebastian192 就目前而言，多数人对目前的防疫政策无感
@@sebastian192 70% of the 1.4 billion people are satisfied. Do you think you are satisfied with this figure?What evidence indicates dissatisfaction?
There is an argument against competition for countries which has chosen different paths. A bank can compete with another bank as winner is naturally the profitable one. But a bank cannot compete with a hospital because a hospital can be excellent even when it just breaks even financially but provide the best care for the cost. Is Citibank winning against Huawei a meaningful statement ?
To think in terms of competition between America and China it must be sectorial. It cannot be as a whole. But in geopolitics, competition is really about power diplomacy and military. In diplomacy, we can see China running circles around the US outside the West (BRI, SCO, BRIC ...), and military advances in China has astonished many even without fighting a war since 1978.
Planning vs. market, state vs. private sector - China continues to move forward because it has basically stopped that argument. They have found that the best solution is a dynamic, flexible, interactive mixture of the two, while Western analysts like Rudd simply keep looking at China through the same lens. The result is simplistic classification of who in the leadership is “pro-market” and “pro-planning.”
Hey Kev. Do one on the shifting one China policy?
Do these people really fantasize about interfering in other countries' internal affairs every day
Every minute
Yes. That's how the West maintains its wealth and power.
It’s crazy. These are people that are supposed to be our top educators
I think Dr. Rudd have forgetten chinese used to have an “unsuspendable growth” by low tech low labor cost model of economy.
Hes not DR and he know nothing about Chinese culture civilization or people or what he knows is very superficial.
@@edmurks236 Does Xi Jing Ping know of Chinese culture civilisation or people?
@@_F_Y_ are you serious?!
@@_F_Y_ Of course, he is actually very knowledgeable.
@@_F_Y_ That's a good question! I think he knows less than Mr. Kevin Rudd. It is simply because he couldn't have a complete education! 🤣
Kevin Rudd is such a great public intellectual. So proud he is Australian. The country can be extremely anti-intellectual, so he is like a needle in a haystack. There may be some intellectuals but they are largely confined to elite spaces of academia rather than having their lectures available to the public.
Begins c. 9:00.
The Rt Honourable Mr Rudd has to sell to a Western audience. I used to listen to what he had to say. But I recently detected a slight lean towards his audience's preferred line of attack. He really has no choice. Business is business. I now find less and less need to follow his line of thought.
He did live in China in the eighties of the last century.
Learning a language is only good for communication, but if perspective is not align for Chinese Culture then he just guessing his way around rather than a valid proposition about China.
Totally true he thinks hes an expert based on the fact he can speak some Mandarin. Thats about the extent of his Chinese knowledge.
That’s exactly what puzzles me, all the moves are interpreted as power struggle between Xi and the others (private economy, the purged), as strategic moves between CN and the US. The concerns of common people by such policies/reign are basically absent. The domestic stunning gap between rich and poor people/regions, e.g.. I guess, overall it’s unfavourable for the western academia to interpret equality-oriented government/policies (especially that of an authoritarian regime) as being well-supported. The conventional interpretation frame stays comfortably a REPRESSIVE regime. 1:06:40 “but i'm also very interested in uh seeing from my perspective that is many of these policy and reforms they're from ⚠️domestic or responding to problems at home, instead of just trying to consolidate their power”
Well said.
But is it truely an "equality-oriented government/policies" when party leaders can afford luxury and the middle class gets their bank accounts limited, their life savings wiped on housing thats unfinished, while getting arrested for simply voicing to their fellow middle class countrymen that this is happening? Is it equality when the communist party agrees with Hong Kong that they can keep their democratic system, then arrest all the leaders? Where's this equality you speak of? Maybe its in your wallet have you checked there?
@@roaminromer Recently I am primarily on a diet, but sometimes still eat burgers. Donno the later one could diminish my primary goal, 🤷♂️hopefully not. However when contradiction (as well as seeming contraction) is what is hunted for, yes, you never get disappointed. To your questions, if a confrontation ist expected from here, I’d rather remain silent. If instead a conversation is expected, we may take it case by case, step by step. BTW, it is nice of you to show interest in my wallet.
Rudd talk a lot of crap. He always did.
Politics don’t matter when you run capitalism well, that’s what allowed China to climb out of poverty. But when politics get in the ways of capitalism that’s when politics matter, for example, the zero Covid policy.
US and the West do not have a foreign policy but a security policy. I think China is preparing for the challenges of US and the West security policy. The cost to China is economic growth.
Thank you. I spent the last hour thinking about Rudd's words. I couldn't come up with the thought you provided, He failed to mention the security aspect
Where is Peng Shuai?
Interesting talk, thank you.
No mention of India in your calculus though....
And no mention of my cat.....sigh!
India will always be behind China. Both countries started at the same GDP (nominal) point some years back and China's economy now is 4 to 5 times the size of India's. There is something about East Asians that make this possible. Care to guess.
Why were the West's recent moves (away from "globalism") to (economically and otherwise) isolate China, Russia and others not mentioned? Also, it will take time to digest the overblown RE sector.
1:06:18 I was getting extremely worried with China until the student asked that question 😃
He tried to correct kevin but was interrupted, lol
@@jenniferzhang864 What he said was enough anyway 😃
I think the phd that will be obtained is not necessary right ...because this is an interpretation based on kevin argument based on data/ history , viewed/ judged by westerner .......i think better view/ judged by chinese ,because chinese knows what will be done...in such away that phd obtained should be obtained from chinese university rather than western uni
I think I saw li Lu and joe Tsai.
My 'pastoral well being"?
I didn't even Know i got that !
To sum it prosaically, Kevin is 100% American, and 10% Australian, in "nationalism."
In addition, he is 100% anti-China, even though he has often made the amusing snide remark that he is "friend of China", which anyone with half a brain would find jarring.
Can't blame him, he is doing very well and minting it through his lectures to all and sundry. Agree, underneath all that he is very sneaky and totally undermining CCP and Xi with a smile and a snide remark
06:42- Start of actual speech
Kevin mentioned about ccp’s internal and external perspective of strategic competition. This can be reconciled by the Chinese saying, 内方外圆。
Which translates...
I've always thought that Kevin Rudd was a lefty panda hugger, but after reading all the hateful comments from the 50 cent army in the comments, I may have to pick up his book.
I want to hear more about the drunken dinners.
Hahaha
While Kevin identifies the impact of policies on China's economy and its consequences for China's social and economic stability, on the other side of the equation, it assumes China faces a 'versus' of on-going strength in US/Western economies and societies. As these are heavily debt and consumption based economies, the fall of the dollar debt system would see these economies collapse....with the means of production located in China.
Not so grim. US will feel some pain as they re-onshore manufacturing in the next several years but they’ll get through it. The fall of the Dollar system? Sure, but can you give me another fiat that’s actually better than the Dollar right now?
@@zqflute3676 On-shoring didn't work under Trump and tariffs, and it doesn't go to the US at any rate. The dollar system is only safe until a big and nasty event undermines it, and you can bet Russia, India and China only go along with it while it works for them.......when it doesn't, they will collapse it.
China is heavily in debt too and it looks like a housing bubble is going off. Let’s see what happens
Are you suggesting the dollar based system is more likely to collapse than China experiencing the issues Kevin outlines? That’s unlikely to be the outcome.
@@willwhiteside5875 Both are possible, such that China's ills mishandled or a sudden break in the world order (eg, Taiwan) could collapse the world economy and dollar system. China economic problems and what happens with Taiwan are not just issues for China, they will have far reaching consequences for fragile western economies and societies too.
Their Derida is on the line? Did no understand that! ;b
he said: "their derrière is on the line"
Giving corporations free rein in an economy and having a private bank in charge of a countries finances hasn't worked out too well for the USA with crumbling infrastructure whose people except for a small corporate elite are descending into poverty?
“preventing capital from expanding in a disorderly fashion,”:
"The Chinese state guides capital and private entities towards what it believes are national strategic priorities, rather than allowing them to simply focus on generating greater revenue."
Jack Ma of Alipay & Ant thought he could prioritize profit, he was told this is not the Chinese way?
Perhaps the US Government needs to outsource re-education of US corporate bosses to China and divert the obscene profits they make plus most of the overblown US defense budget to lifting Americans out of poverty? President Xi Jinping was sent to work on a farm in the country in his youth to rid him of his theoretical political delusions.
Awesome answer. Will that re-education tuition will be insured by uncle Sam ?
I’m very optimistic about China’s future
I think he shud do one on USA.
I wish I could of been there to hear him speak.
Dr. Rudd is my idol of gentleman and scholar!
He is just a white man ,white man success was build on stolen loot in the name of Jesus, one hindu said
so the australian has picked a position they are explaining to us why it is so?
Thanks for taking us to a free diving trip into the shifting China's economy.
In the Anglo-saxon world, conferences have to start with and include jokes. Why?
Westerners often with superficial knowledge in the language has the habit to claim himself as someone who understand China well. Kevin Rudd is no exception to this...
Absolutely.
Because they can't help themselves looking at china through their western prism. they want to be impartial but their western heart and mind wins out in the end.
It’s easier to have high economic growth when starting from a low level, if I produce one rock in a year and the next year I produce 2. I have doubled. But if I produce a million rocks one year and and only 1.10million the next year, it is still significant growth but much less then when I was producing 1 rock. It’s only natural as an economy grows that economic growth will slow. Isn’t 3% economic growth seen as ideal growth in a developed economy. Growth outside of this causes problems in other areas of the economy. Isn’t What we are seeing now in China just a sign that chinas economy is maturing?
Maybe. Problem is that real estate issue is a legitimate disaster and manufacturing and trade is going to be significantly more difficult for years, and this is far above and beyond typical economic growth conditions. Add geopolitical war threats, covid-19, and political issues, demonstrates that the deck is stacked against China for some time.
@@noneyabeeysnass8283 Trade? What about the 15 countries that want to join BRICS? That will be 10% of countries, and more then 50% of the population. That’s 50% of the world not trading in American dollars anymore… I’d be more worried about the USA’s future, if they lose world trade in US dolllars then their $31trillion dollar debt becomes real. I think that is the real reason behind US provocations in Ukraine and the South China Sea.
@@noneyabeeysnass8283 I have been hearing that arrogant nonsense for decades now
@@keyboardoracle1044 US provocations in Ukraine??? What on earth are you on about? Would you have the US and UK just sit back and let that happen? What’s next after that? Or should l say what country? That is a very strange statement indeed.
@@willwhiteside5875 2014 and before.nothing happens in a vacuum.
Big up the Chinese student at the end.
I really don’t like him for speaking Chinese words randomly to add weights to show his acknowledgment of China-related issues.
when without any interpretation.
zero is a great policy ... interesting that something so small could cause so much trouble !
Will it actually matter, Noting the adverse impacts of the precursor events of Covid and Ukraine on complex globalised systems.
You matter.
Could it be hope for the best and prepare for the worst?
Xi n in fact China never said n never will intend to "To model the world after China itself" That is a distorted comment with bad intentions
In fact its the west and primarily America who insist on modelling China according to Western norms starting with Taiwan and HK.
@@truthmatters2782 democracy isn't a western norm its a human one. Taiwan is an example of a Chinese culture with a democratic political system.
You'd be wrong to call Taiwan a western country.
@@truthmatters2782 Taiwanese and HK people are wise and capable enough to "choose" what they want.
@@_F_Y_ Not with the constant meddling, brainwashing, lying, and slandering of the very powerful Western fake medias.
No country especially the US will accept traitors to run the country. Imagine the US run by officials who hate America and collude with Russia and China to undermine America.
@@Spright91 Democracy is relatively new to humans. For most of human society, humans have had a socialist system.
Kevin Rudd quit being an honest source about China many years ago, his talks are little more than a random collection of nonsense statements that amount to nothing more than a hit job, complete BS.
He works for the Americans for gods sake that says it all.
Totally agreed. He has gone to the other side ..the elites that first started exploiting own people until no possible and then turn other through conquest and colonisation. When it is no longer possible hide under the so called democracy where those without resources would be easily control by those with the resources.who are the elites of course.
Keen observation.
@Sun Manyi the thing is: what is in Dr Joysankar, EAM of India's head not on their some Indian Punjabi or Indian Muslim women's heads? Cultural, educated mind matters most not dresses that is undergoing changes through times.
0:13: 🎤 Kevin Rudd delivers the inaugural Susan Shirk lecture on US-China relations, discussing the Chinese economy and the upcoming 20th Party Congress.
7:22: 📜 The speech discusses the changes in Chinese policy and economy under Deng Xiaoping and Xi Jinping.
15:23: 📉 China's economic growth has been declining due to a shift towards state-owned enterprises and industrial policy, as well as demographic factors.
21:17: 📜 The 20th Party Congress in China will likely see the reappointment of Xi Jinping, who has consolidated political power and removed term limits and age constraints.
28:50: 📜 Xi Jinping is likely to be reappointed as general secretary for a longer period, possibly 15 years, due to personal vulnerability and his role in China's national rejuvenation.
34:33: 🌍 Xi Jinping is preparing the Chinese Communist Party for long-term confrontation with the United States, emphasizing new strategic opportunities and a new strategic stage.
40:54: 🇨🇳 China's slowing growth and challenges to the social contract between the Chinese Communist Party and the people may lead to a fracture, but Xi Jinping's state control and surveillance measures aim to maintain stability.
48:42: 📢 The speaker discusses the intensification of language over time and the potential timetable for China's actions towards Taiwan.
55:06: 💥 The speaker discusses the impact of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the potential for Japan to go nuclear, as well as the hardline views of Kishida-san towards China.
1:02:30: 🗣 The speaker discusses the challenges and dynamics of China's domestic and foreign policies, particularly in relation to the US-China competition and the Pacific Island countries.
1:09:15: 📚 The speaker discusses the political control of the private sector in China under Xi Jinping and proposes managing strategic competition between the US and China.
Recap by Tammy AI
How many dissidents are in Australian pay with promise of citizenship?
Congrats on your Phd Kevvy
Insightful talk by Rudd. Lots of China trolls in the comments as expected.
蔡老板也在啊57:40
我看着也像他
If everything is going to be new, what is the purpose of scholarship of Rudd from places like Oxford?
The intellectual part is not of any importance don t we iuse a.i. instead in that future, btw what about the antroposoohical part is it to be or not?
Beyond all the ideo-babble, China is behaving much like any other major power throughout history, carrying on competition with its peers. But the opportunities for major shifts in alliances are today much smaller. The other route to success is territorial acquisition, which ended with the parallel US and Russian expansion in the 19th Century. There is no new terra incognita out there to seize. As to technological, economic supremacy, it's a game everyone knows. So I fully expect the world to remain mostly frozen at about today's shape.
At least until climate change causes major problems for large parts of the globe, no country excluded. Then we will see how robust are the internal workings of these various powers at maintaining control.
Typical projection of a frog sitting at the bottom of the well looking up.
So, territorial acquisition ended in the 19th century? Apparently, you haven't been reading the news lately.
You are right, we are currently undergoing "Man made" Energy Crisis, but this is nothing compared to the grobal Water crisis that is coming. As you said, interesting times ahead.
China is trying to rise peacefully and is the single most democratic society in history. It's anti-imperialist and focuses on global networking/infrastructure building. Only the West wants "competition". China would be happy with a united, multipolar, socialist world led with strong international communities like the UN.
I guess, unlike other Westerners this guy is at least not that much biased against China. He acknowledges China's formidable strengths.
But still he also suffers from the same disease that every Westerner does i.e. high on American/White Exceptionalism and wanting to maintain White/American/Anglo-Saxon supremacy in the world.
Though, no matter what, American hegemony is about to come to an end in Europe and Asia.
Rudd is out of Australian politics, why? he is president of Asia Society, US. highly doubt Rudd is individually well-off. a retired pol can be brutally honest, not if you want to be gainfully employed.
He's typically a white guy who had difficulty in accepting other races progress.
so true. The brainwash in the U.S. is too powerful.
Exceptionalism? It's not "Western/American/White" people who call their country the "Middle Kingdom" (as in the center of the world) and engage in an expansionist imperialism to match the name.
Remember something well if it takes a nuclear war that kills us all that is what we will do before accepting a world where we are second to China. So if that's the case enjoy the time you have left because we will choose mutually assured destruction before letting any of that happen.
It's called "Dynamic Zero Covid Policy". There are some differences.
19-minute mark: Rudd discusses the extremely misleading growth rates of the Chinese economy - suggesting that, because the Chinese economy no longer grows at 10% yearly, that it is 'slowing down.' What he doesn't discuss is the size of the Chinese economy at present, which is well over 125% the size of the U.S. economy (according to PPP; the 'gold standard' for comparing economies). Once an economy reaches such a massive size, the biggest the world has ever seen, it is all-but-impossible to grow at 10%, as the Earth and trade on it are finite. Every year the Chinese economy grows the size of the entire Australian economy, and every two years, it grows the size of the entire Indian economy (the 5th largest economy). So, he's discussing nonsense; a well-worn propaganda point that western media frequently uses to suggest there is something wrong with Chinese economic growth...obviously, he didn't learn much about academic rigor at Oxford.
Heard that China is starting to trade with Venus …
China’s GDP per person PPP places China as 72nd in the world behind Belarus. Not number 1. Are you saying it’s impossible to grow more wealthy than Belarus?
@@noodleppoodle No one cares about GDP per person. It's almost a meaningless calculation. For example, the average American makes more than double what the average Chinese makes. Do you think that translates into prosperity? No, the home ownership in China is 90%, compared to 60-something% in the U.S. The cost-of-living in China is way lower in China compared to the U.S. - the only comparable cost is housing-price, but rent is still extremely cheap in most parts of China.
@@jasonjean2901 of course it translates into prosperity, that’s what it measures. PPP means purchasing power parity, so cost of living is already taken into account. USA is not number one. it is 10th. There are other countries in the world too, you don’t have to compare to the USA. In Germany home ownership will be less than 30% so what? Where do most people prefer to live, Germany or China? There are many causes. If you think you will have a better life as a villager in Inner Mongolia go ahead and migrate. But most people go the other way and move to the West. Because real life is not an Internet comment, and most people in China live like in Belarus.
Home ownership: Chinese people save and don’t trust other investments. As a side note, I live in a country that used to be communist. And there was no such thing as ownership, you couldn’t own real estate. I want to know how ownership works in China.
@@noodleppoodle "Of course it translates into prosperity"...No, seriously, that is nonsense. Let's compare the U.S. and China (again) - on average, the Chinese save around 40% of their wages. This allows for massive amounts of purchasing power, especially when combined in family groups. This is why home-ownership is so high in China, but also why Chinese investments in real-estate in Australia, Canada, and the U.S. has fundamentally altered housing prices and how homes are built in all of those countries. It's also why China has, for at least a decade, been the world's largest group of international tourists, as well as representing the largest group, by far, of international students (they have the money to burn). Compare this to the U.S., where 40% of American households have ZERO savings (nothing in the bank; living paycheck-to-paycheck), have an average of 5 credit cards per household (to juggle the debt until it becomes unmanageable), and 60% of Americans could not afford an unplanned $500 expense (so they couldn't fix their car if anything major broke on it). This is the case, despite how PPP per capita is over twice as high in the U.S. compared with China.
The Trouble with The Chinese is that they're Too Bright and Too Hard Working.
The problem is the CCP who cut transplant organs to order from imprisoned Uyghurs and probably political prisoners without anesthesia.
Ok, assuming you are right then please tell me why Chinese are not the only super power in the world. Instead it is the US occupying the spot as the only super power.
Something must be wrong with you Chinese. Maybe it is in your DNA ?
They are the Borg
It is their problem, there are more virtues than hard work and smarts that are also fundamental to a successful and thriving nation. Self identity, creativity, compassion, reason, and others are qualities not known to be valued (as much as the former) by the CCP's ideological world view and are misjudged virtues.
Let me know what you think?
Kevin is really good at what he does
Counsciouness : ?
- Quoi ?
Counsciouness: .... j’ai à nouveau le droit de parler?
- Ici oui ...
Counsciouness: j’espère que vous avez compris que l’axe des forces avait changé...?
- C’est evident ...
Counsciouness: j’espère aussi que vous avez compris que la Chine avait tout intérêt à ce que la Russie se vautre publiquement...
- ???
Counsciouness: le marquage de pouvoir est ainsi opérant - l’attitude inacceptable de W and co. est aussi l’opportunité de montrer qui commande ... dans l’autre ‘’équipé’.... perdre la face publiquement est un affront... et l’occasion d’assoir son pouvoir.
- Des fois je me dis que votre lecture est si sombre ...
Counsciouness: je n’ai ni à être positif ni à être négatif. La Russie et l’Afrique sont riches en ressources ... convoitables et très convoitées.... ne soyez pas dupes, s’il vous plaît. Vous connaissez le jeu de go - quel que soit le coup que vous jouez, ce dernier doit vous permettre de gagner.... du terrain...des ressources...
- ....
Counsciouness: et externaliser les tensions à l’extérieur de ses frontières est un moyen de ne pas permettre à celles-ci de fragiliser la situation indoor.... c’est vieux comme le monde ... surtout si c’est autrui qui fait le sal boulot.
- La colonisation en arrière-plan ?
Counsciouness: L’amour est aussi le nom d’un fleuve .... rouge, rouge, l’amour...
- Britney avait raison : vous flirtez avec le cynisme...
Counsciouness: votre plus grand problème Madame, comme pour beaucoup par ailleurs, est de confondre le cynisme avec l’objectivité...
-....
Counsciouness: [...]...
Sweat shop millionaires are a big problem.
Did Rudd mention that China's PLA defeated USA during the Korean war?
The PLA did not defeat the NATO defense of South Korea. If NATO lost, the slave state of North Korea would dominate the whole Korean peninsula. The war started when North Korean forces crossed the boarder in an invasion. The PLA needed to intervene to stop the loss of the North Korean army and the problem of having NATO and US democratic forces on their border. In the end, nobody won but South Korea eventually became a prosperous and democratic state. The South Koreans throw away more food than the North has to eat. That is not winning.
400,000 casualties vs 40,000, yes, that's a defeat, but on which side?
@Joker Fan Away? From the Korean Peninsula? Not exactly. Away from China? But they were never in China. The only foreign power which occupied part of China after WWII was and still is Russia. Vladivostok was a Chinese city ceded to the Imperial Russia by the Qing Imperial Court. Both the KMT and CCP denounced and rejected all the unfair treaties signed by the Qing Imperial court, Russia is still illegally occupied part of China according to that interpretation. So, it was a draw in the Korean Peninsula, but the PLA didn't even have the gut to take on the Russian army.
@Joker Fan Putin should be honored in the next Oscar, he created a movie set for Rambo, a backdrop for 007, a character worthy of Dr Evil, a script just like Lord of the Rings!
Did CCP mention to you that China has threatened its surrounding territories within and outside throughout the history?
Good point 👍👍👍
You better get ready for war ☢️
Why do you care about what they do, too big to force democracy on them?
Try forcing democracy on USA first , cos it is NOT a democratic country ……. !! Surely you know this by now………
@@mikelloyd520 yousaid what I did not say in my comment. What we have here is an oligocracy( if that exists) disguised as a “democracy”.
@@carlosramirez4724 I apologise. Yes. An oligarchy for sure. Time for a change………. Good luck on that one.
So you don't care?
@@toby9999 we should care about people and what benefits they receive from their respective governments. We should NOT care a dime about the so called effing “system”. However that seems to be the ONLY thing people care about democracy vs whatever. USA democracy is an utter sham and the yank have swallowed if faithfully. I mean, what the uck is the electoral college all about, and lobbying, and NON proportional …….. all fake democracy. You need to fix your problem before saying other systems are wrong. Other systems look good if the welfare of the people is important, WHICH we all know is the last thing on the. INDO of USA citizens or the elite corporates….. dead in the water and now shredding itself without any help from external evil systems lol
Kev sure get's around.
Korea do usa remember.
Dr. Rudd has made progress in his mastery of Chinese! These meetings by Party congress ,high level committees and age-restriction(exempting Xi) hopefully will result in optimal policies governing China. Xi had risen through decades of rigorous competition and metriculation via successful work experiences. Governing with refined group wisdom demonstrated superior performance compared to American system of governing by popularity contests.
Just a thought that intrigued me from the very first instant when news of Covid first broke out a few days before the start of 2020 Chinese New Year or Spring Festival as it is aldo called at Wuhan. This festival is also the annual world biggest human migration. My first thought was could this be a planned biological warfare disguised as pandemic. Could SARS be the precursor or trial. Yes far fetched perhaps but not entirely impossible especially in early reports it seemed to affect people of yellow skin. That changed vety quickly afterwards. Remember the hue and cry by Western media on human rights violation when Wuhan was quickly locked down. And of course the curiosity of the 5 USA soldiers who were hurriedly flown home in the midst of a world military game in Oct 2019. My question now on Xi's Zero Covid paranoia is could it be he is privy to information that possibly supports my fear and suspicion which he cannot recklessly accuse as the USA did on the Uighur genocide. And if that is his thought then the perpetrator will not stop so suddenly yet. Just a far fetched thought.
I can't blame you for those thoughts. We've all got them. Just with different bad guys!😁 Here we had some silly stuff circulating re Wuhan being a secret base for the development of biological weapons, obviously because you have that facility there dealing with bioagents. Can you believe it? People pointed out that a novel written in the. 90ies or so had totally predicted the outbreak. So ...then you read a bit of the novel...it mentions Wuhan....and biological agents....and then proceeds to give you a completely different story. What a let down 😁😁😁😁 but in honesty: sometimes I wonder why we always must paint the other in the most unbecoming colours. Doesn't that encourage people to show you their worst sides, somehow?
Interesting 🤔
Not so far fetched. When you get into this League of practically ultimate power, at least, over death and the quality of life, then it's a course of "anything goes." as the psychopath Narcissists says, he did it because he could. So the "Scientific" mind, these days. The playout between the States and China and the WHO and the UN is a power play where the crossover lines are not definite because corruption remains corruption, trust stays trust and loyalty is bought and sold in anybody's language. The only question is, what is the cause that is being pursued? Playing God at the expense of Human Nature? Well, nobody believes in the God we once knew anymore, not in higher places, and certainly not in Communist Countries. There, the love of Money and the power that it brings is the God of the New Age.Three years of Covid 19 have shown that the World was subjected to an experiment, the likes of which have never been previously experienced and the outcomes of which will be seen for the rest of Humanity's time on this earth. The Pandora's box was opened once again. I don't think skin colour has much to do with it. I think it is more than likely the attempt to reduce World population. An Experiment. Now what? It seems that some people expect it is the end-times.- a prediction that has just about as much worth as any prophecy. It's a pity that for most of us, we won't be around to see how it will be played out. Nothing is more gratifying than, if not to say it then to think it: "I told you so."- with a wry smile on your face. The answer, my friend, is written by the Wind on the sands of Time. How big can Man's boots get without him getting irretrievably stuck in the mud?
Astrology can be fun, listening to this is like that, but don't plane your life on that. China will do it quit well and gives hope for the great part of the world.
Sorry Rudd, I thought you too pro China back when I cast my vote against you. You nailed it with that NBN policy, better internet is what the kids wanted.
居然以为他亲中，他就是一个叫两个老虎打架的狐狸啦，怎么可能亲中。
An overrated Rud. Nothing less nothing more.
this guy is good. exactly what i know about Xi by the way he speaks, the way his currently policies and the way his personality shows.
Yes, I agree. I find his persona fascinating. I know NO Mandarin but I find Xi's way of talking and body language compelling. Wish he weren't so anti-American. He wasn't always. Proper US leadership could mitigate that but it would go against the American populists.
@Chinese American @Kamp Gallery
As someone who grew up in China and has been in USA for 25 years, I totally agree this comment: Kevin is now the chairman of AS, and his political views are more and more in line with Western political correctness, losing his previous objectivity and independence.
Guess what, misinterpreting China is western’s lost. China will continue moving forward and the western will be left behind.
Impressed by his knowledge on China which is exceptional in the west, but disappointed on his interpretation - truly a phd candidate level.
This guy’s spin on CCP quotes are cherry picked.
Everyone cherry picks, you only realise that when they say something you don't like.
@@J_X999 not true, you are not understanding the definition or the connotation of cherry picking. There are hard standards to help mark the line between cherry picking vs not.
Could you give some examples?
CGTN The Point-The Heat-The Hub journalist's are excellent
you are lucky you've got neighbour with panda, or else you know what it means.......
All Rudd's opinions and statements should be taken with a grain of salt. He appears to be a knowledgeable man in a sea of western ignormace about China.
Since when did Kevin become a doctor?
analyse from a very capitalistic standpoint, the quality of people is totally neglected, except the age.
Pl honor poor Chinese who has stood on their feet and all colonists become alarted. An Asian giants who can challenge all western Colonists.
All honour to Dr Shashi Tharoor and Dr Joysankar, EAM of India who explained before Colonists West about the loot and Colonist killing of Asian, African, Middle East.
Difference between Chinese business class, Students vs Indian business class and students is Chinese are more nationalist than Indian counterparts.
The western Colonists have broken our spines. We adapt Western culture without the essence of Western civilizations. Our educated generation ignores Indian civilization, its cultural heritage, it's philosophical understanding.
Chinese educated generations adapt Western technology, culture under Chinese perspectives with strict nationalistic view point.
I do not know much about India. But I agree with your observation about educated Chinese.
"Our educated generation ignores India's civilization, its cultural heritage, its philosophical understanding."
One example; I notice a lot of Indian Sikhs, despite their Western education (PhD, lawyers, professors, doctors, politicians etc) and adapting colonist life styles of the Five-eyes countries, they still maintain wearing their turbans. Aren't they keeping their cultural hertage? You should question your Indian EAM's.
@@sunmanyi3265 the thing is: what is in his head not on their heads? Cultural, educated mind matters most not dresses that is undergoing changes through times.
A.J. Nathan maintains that China sees the struggle against the USA is a game of waiting. America is like a zit; you just wait until it ripe and pop it. I take the same position. Unless, Taiwan declares "legal" independence.
1. Taiwan cannot declare independence without changing their constitution first which states that Taiwan is part of China. 2. China would not allow it and the Taiwanese know that.
We will literally cause Taiwan to proclaim Independence. Time is on our 🇺🇸 side because we have the best bait in the world 👉🏼🇹🇼
Rudd is missing the balanced view he had in earlier years and fallen in with the demonize China crowd, pity.
'cause only demonizing china he would be paid well, the guy has to make a living too
这货越来越不着调了。