Is the Property Ponzi ending?

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  • Опубліковано 16 лис 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 116

  • @Alex-i1q5s
    @Alex-i1q5s 5 днів тому +46

    You shouldn't need a "Good job" as in be middle-class to afford a house, you should be able to buy a house if you work full time, otherwise, what's the point of those jobs, that are essential but low paid.

    • @TF-cn6oj
      @TF-cn6oj 5 днів тому

      People can't save in the money we work for because central banks keep stealing from citizens through printing of money. People have to use something to.shelter themselves from theft

    • @InnuendoXP
      @InnuendoXP 5 днів тому +6

      And you DEFINITELY shouldn't need two "good jobs" to afford one either.

    • @spokes1018
      @spokes1018 5 днів тому +5

      Small island, population has exploded and not enough houses built. Obviously a house will be expensive.

    • @allykhan8594
      @allykhan8594 5 днів тому +3

      End interest enslavement and fraction reserves, then it ends.

    • @RabJ208
      @RabJ208 5 днів тому +5

      Not how economics works in the real world. I could say "it's not fair, I think everyone should own a Ferrari" .....
      But that would be rather unrealistic proposition.

  • @wattbenj
    @wattbenj 5 днів тому +3

    I think we're getting near to the end, yes, but I also think that when she blows it's going to hail in many years of misery far worse than what we've seen up until now. And that's my optimistic assessment. Greed never ends well, and what we've seen is the most extreme end of greed.
    It's so important to put family and friends at the centre of our lives, that's what it's really about. Finding joy in life's simplicities and in the connections we make.

  • @jamesholmes4256
    @jamesholmes4256 3 дні тому +1

    You also need to mention the reason for house price rising are:
    Quantitive Easing
    Inflation
    Labour lowering the stamp duty in April 2015 to 125k will not help getting onto the property ladder

  • @nsoul4296
    @nsoul4296 5 днів тому +9

    Even with a lack of decent supply, i expect prices to stagnate for years. Factor in inflation and prices will be a down a fair bit. Just my opinion.

    • @stevo728822
      @stevo728822 5 днів тому +1

      We thought that way back in 2000.

    • @TasmanianDevil22
      @TasmanianDevil22 5 днів тому +1

      Then you have to take into account interest paid over the years

    • @cybermuse6917
      @cybermuse6917 5 днів тому

      Agreed. Houses priced for ZIRP policy (about 2% rates), and they will need to be repriced if baseline inflation demands 4% policy rates (about 5/6% mortgage rates) meaning alternatives less tied to interest rates will do better relatively. Market will be stagnant for a couple of years with slightly deflationary pressures due to lack of desire due to overpriced assets.

    • @RabJ208
      @RabJ208 5 днів тому

      Naaa, most people (especially on here) thought prices would dive 35%.

    • @lordsummerisle852
      @lordsummerisle852 4 дні тому

      Hope so.
      I'm not sure I share your optimism, but hope you're right

  • @jonc67uk
    @jonc67uk 5 днів тому +4

    Look on the bright side. We're not as badly blown as Australia & Canada. The locals are talking about leaving because they can't afford to live there, which isn't exactly sustainable, along with all the tents & car camping. It's a silly way to run an economy.

    • @BenState
      @BenState 5 днів тому

      Incorrect. In Australia we dont have low interest rates and we have higher incomes. Australia has a median house price to income ratio of 8, whereas UK is 9 and and Canada is 10.

  • @Bubbles77418
    @Bubbles77418 4 дні тому +2

    19 new listings on RM today but 13 of them are reductions! House prices are going up though?? Pull the other one 🤣🤣

  • @allykhan8594
    @allykhan8594 5 днів тому +3

    When interest enslavement ends and fraction reserve ends, the ponzi ends.

  • @mat-ur6qb
    @mat-ur6qb 5 днів тому +3

    So true Charlie that prop investment does not make sense any more. Real terms we are back at 2002 prices now. With recent stamp duty and soaring solicitor fees, it now takes around 10 years to just get back your purchase costs from the meagre net rent which is now taxed on turnover rather than actual net rent. Mom & pop BTL is making way for the big boys of Build to Rent.

    • @RabJ208
      @RabJ208 5 днів тому

      I make around £300 net profit per month on average with each property I rent out. Rents are shooting up.

  • @cybermuse6917
    @cybermuse6917 5 днів тому +3

    Friendly advice to all: Choose not to buy if you can, move in with parents, rent whatever.
    Houses are overpriced, so avoid the risk of negative equity. If there is a bubble it will become apparent by mid-end of 2025 as people enter the re-mortgaging cycle. You are more likely to get a better deal and/or avoid most the downside.

    • @MovingHomewithCharlie
      @MovingHomewithCharlie  5 днів тому

      I find it hard to disagree with this. Although for people who want to buy a long term home, keep looking. You may not need to wait for the bottom.

  • @TrishWalmsley-jh3tz
    @TrishWalmsley-jh3tz 5 днів тому +17

    Is his 1st name Sam..?

  • @manni192
    @manni192 5 днів тому +10

    These property gurus make their money selling courses

  • @PieceMeals
    @PieceMeals 5 днів тому +4

    Not that guy. These schemes have relieved plenty of fools who were looking to get rich quick of their money. Most people who offer courses to make money out of anything, make their money from the courses they offer. How do people not get that?!

  • @fplluke
    @fplluke 5 днів тому +2

    Thanks charlie, enjoyed the short form video. Witty and informative as always. All the best

  • @AM_o2000
    @AM_o2000 5 днів тому +2

    Always be suspicious of investors looking for retail investors. Either they've invested already and they're just looking for retail investors to inflate an asset bubble even further, or the investment is too risky for _their_ money and they just want to gamble with other people's money.

  • @TasmanianDevil22
    @TasmanianDevil22 5 днів тому +4

    Dont forget about Steven Gr###. Selling courses and saying prices are going to explode. I personally think prices will just stagenate, unless mass unemployment causes forced sales. Hasn't happened yet.

  • @Tomm9y
    @Tomm9y 14 годин тому

    The property ponzi needs to be gently unravelled over decades. The demand problem needs to be addressed by the government/housing associations buying land at agricultural prices and building very decent low-density housing, (with gardens, generous parking, garages, hobby space) for long term rent only. This should remove the demand for private rental properties but also lower the market rent levels. There should be a mechanism for tenants to migrate to buying non-public housing, which would free up the public rentals.
    What people do not know is that developers spend between 25% to 33% of the sales price of a new home on construction (materials and labour), the developer's overheads are extra. The big problem is the land values wrapped up in the price, and the financing of those acquisitions. Land should be valued at agricultural rates. Currently developers/landowners, receive huge lump sums when a house is sold. Usually, the build cost is financed via a bank and when the property is sold. developer's solicitor pays the construction cost (25% to 33%) to the financing bank, the rest is split between the developer, the landowner/landbanker and any other financiers. For the consumer, the problem is that the starting point is the multiple of income, this should change to the maximum being the construction cost (materials and labour). Currently consumers are borrowing/using savings most of which is funding mega profits of the developers/landbankers. Additionally, the planning system requires, extremely high densities of housing per acre. This results in small houses, small rooms, parking problems, small gardens, no storage or garages, no trees or greenery. Minimal land prices would, help in a significant reduction in housing densities and allow for local roads to be built/used instead of disrupting busy A and B roads. The use of leaseholds needs to be abolished, investment groups are holding on to/buying parking areas, access roads, thereby gaining undue control over future changes or redevelopment. The current system of social housing getting discounts, means that private buyers are paying for that. Instead, the entire system needs to be brought down to the actual costs and much higher standards.
    Additionally, house values need to be depreciated over say 20 years, and bank lending should be further restricted to reflect the depreciated value. If people have cash to pay more, they can. The. Now there is a question of who should pay for the site development costs, roads, services. I think, local taxation and central taxation should increase to improve all roads, infrastructure. Then by providing an enormous number of self-build plots, people can choose the build to suit their needs and pockets. I understand a similar system works well in Germany.
    No wonder many people are spending more than 50% of their incomes on mortgage payments/rent. The government's advice is that housing costs should only be 10% to 12% of net income.
    From 1995 to 2015 the value of land in the UK increased from £0.6 trillion to £3.9 Trillion while assets over land increased from £0.5 trillion to £1.5 trillion. So, buildings increased by a factor of 2 while land increased by a factor of 5.3. Total Household debt was £1.85 Trillion in August 2023.
    This feeds into the problem of government spending, with millions of public sector workers spend a huge proportion of the income on housing, of course demands for pay rises will continue.
    The cash flows from paying mortgages and rents are not going into materials and labour to build decent houses. Even the high level of rents and mortgages eats into government spending by way of housing benefit, which although paid out by local authorities is ultimately funded by central government. In my view rental properties should only be held via a form of restricted fund. Landlords are treating it as unregulated income. It should only be possible to borrow the tracked depreciated construction value to purchase buy to let property. Perhaps old sub standard properties should be entirely renovated before letting.
    The property ponzi will continue for as long as the structure supports it. There are a lot of very wealthy and very powerful interests who will fight to keep the cash cow going.

  • @kentb3175
    @kentb3175 5 днів тому +2

    I found out about the imputed rents and GBP figures around 15 years ago, when I have on occasion explained to people that such a calculation exists they don't believe me.

  • @nickjcresswell
    @nickjcresswell 4 дні тому

    Immediately after this video finished, what should pop-up? None other than a UA-cam ad from the person you were talking about. I think he can hear you!

  • @RabJ208
    @RabJ208 5 днів тому +5

    We live on an island, and the population is increasing rapidly. Properties are becoming more and more scarce. When the demand for something is higher than the supply - prices always go up. That is why, despite the unprecedented 'spike' in mortgage interest rates and other spanners that have been thrown into the works - property prices are still increasing at healthy rates. Here in NI we are up nearly 11% in one year.

    • @wedocam
      @wedocam 5 днів тому +6

      It's not relevant that we live on an island. Every country has a border. NI is up because it's cheap. Areas which are expensive are going the other way.

    • @MovingHomewithCharlie
      @MovingHomewithCharlie  5 днів тому +2

      Oh you're in NI?! I never knew that and it explains EVERYTING. NI is a completely different market to England and Wales.

    • @RabJ208
      @RabJ208 5 днів тому

      @MovingHomewithCharlie , but prices are also up in England and Wales. What's different about NI other than cess pit London?

    • @wedocam
      @wedocam 5 днів тому

      @@RabJ208 your comment about population increasing rapidly. That may apply to England but not NI. NI prices are rising fast because they can. That's all. In England population growth is high, property price growth is low.

    • @RabJ208
      @RabJ208 5 днів тому

      @@wedocam, who told you that? Lol

  • @billturner6564
    @billturner6564 5 днів тому +1

    As a private buyer i have the choice of a renting a 2 bed flat all my life and paying 1300 a month of someone elses mortgage or be paying 1200 a month on my own mortgage and living in a 3 bed terrace with a small garden 😅
    At the end i will own my own home and its irrelevant if the price of that home has gone up or not because i can sell that home and the proceeds are mien i am sure everyone can work that out 😅

    • @MovingHomewithCharlie
      @MovingHomewithCharlie  4 дні тому +2

      I think everyone is aware of this, but the problem you overlook is, if it was so easy, why doesn't everyone do it? Hmmm.

  • @amirmxd
    @amirmxd 4 дні тому +1

    Everything is pointing towards house prices stagnation/decline. We have a health and demographics crisis, over 1 million empty homes and slow wage growth. Long term projection is financial collapse in my opinion. BRICS countries/multipolar world/global majority shall rise.

  • @coolsunday6339
    @coolsunday6339 4 дні тому +2

    Nothing to do with population growth or lack of house building then?

  • @RajAujla-h4c
    @RajAujla-h4c 5 днів тому +1

    You had me curious (i didn’t know the Sam guy), and I googled ‘has Paul Smith sued anyone’, the second suggestion reads “Britains worst flasher Paul Smith who has exposed….” 😂😂😂 So funny!

  • @stevo728822
    @stevo728822 5 днів тому +1

    High property prices are a worldwide phenomenon, not just the UK. The drivers behind it are therefore baked in and ubiquitous. It's not just local interest rates and taxable incomes. When the world is awash with money looking for a home you have to treat that with respect. And then there's encroaching climate change that may make 1 in 5 homes uninsurable or even uninhabitable. There are a lot of powerful forces at play. We thought in 2000 that house prices could not exceed 3 x income. How wrong we were.

    • @petedavid5127
      @petedavid5127 5 днів тому +2

      There are letters in the times from the 18th century from people complaining about house prices in London. It is hardly a new thing. Property prices have always gone upwards. It barely needs remarking upon.

  • @kateydrummer
    @kateydrummer 5 днів тому +2

    Do you play the drums at home?

  • @ianwalker4634
    @ianwalker4634 4 дні тому +1

    Will their “education courses” drop in value as well !

  • @laurieproctor3572
    @laurieproctor3572 4 дні тому

    Funny how gdp accounts for increasing housing costs but inflation doesn’t. Funny how they can use it when it suits…

  • @robertjones3189
    @robertjones3189 5 днів тому +5

    I’m always bombarded with UA-cam ads from an idiot telling me to transfer my pension into commercial property.

    • @Alex-i1q5s
      @Alex-i1q5s 5 днів тому

      Lmfao me too. 🤣

    • @RabJ208
      @RabJ208 5 днів тому

      You wake up early in the morning to go to work in order to pay for a house you barely live in order to pay for a car to take you from home to and from work and back, the government take anywhere between 20 and 40% of your wages, then you have VAT which means you're being taxed on money that has already been taxed and you save up your whole working life for a pension and at the end of it the government will take 40 to 50% of that. Then in your old age you're living on canned soup, bread and water Total scam then you have your state pension and if you die before you get it you can't get it you can't pass it down to your kids - the government take it back.

    • @stevo728822
      @stevo728822 5 днів тому

      You should have "some" of your pension invested in commercial property REITS. They have a long history of decent returns.

    • @RabJ208
      @RabJ208 5 днів тому

      You wake up early in the morning to go to work in order to pay for a house you barely live in order to pay for a car to take you from home to and from work and back, the government take anywhere between 20 and 40% of your wages, then you have VAT which means you're being taxed on money that has already been taxed and you save up your whole working life for a pension and at the end of it the government will take 40 to 50% of that..Then in your old age you're living on canned soup, bread and water Total scam then you have your state pension and if you die before you get it you can't get it you can't pass it down to your kids - the government take it back.

    • @RabJ208
      @RabJ208 5 днів тому +5

      You wake up early in the morning to go to work in order to pay for a house you barely live in, in order to pay for a car to take you to and from work; the government take anywhere between 20 and 40% of your wages, then you have VAT which means you're being taxed on money that has already been taxed and you save up your whole working life for a pension and at the end of it the government will take 40 to 50% of that. Then in your old age you're living on canned soup, bread and water Total scam then you have your state pension and if you die before you get it you can't get it you can't pass it down to your kids - the government take it back. Folks - participate in your own rescue and invest in property.

  • @arandmorgan
    @arandmorgan 5 днів тому +1

    Who'd have thought that speculative assets might not continue to maintain the same levels of returns. Tulips anyone? 🌷

  • @uzzalroy-e1h
    @uzzalroy-e1h 4 дні тому

    sir,,,Would it be possible to speak with you?

  • @Lifelongloser
    @Lifelongloser 5 днів тому +1

    I’ve been seeing similar predictions for thirty years now.
    Eventually one of them will be right I suppose.

    • @petedavid5127
      @petedavid5127 5 днів тому

      The market value at any given time is irrelevant if no sale is instructed, and in fact you’ll find in times of softer property prices there tends to be less property being sold because owners tend to hang on and wait for the next period of uplift. If you in are period when house prices have softened - and if you are trading up it makes sense to take a 10% hit on your own property in order to gain a 10% drop in your more expensive target property. As for the general direction of house prices the exponential average is upward- it’s simply inflation. And in the case of the shrewd buy to let investor loans are sensibly leveraged so that small increase in house prices results in a larger increase in asset value across the portfolio. It’s magnified by the gearing. Ask yourself why banks are happy to lend to buy to investors. Done properly it’s a relatively safe investment. But there are a couple of major caveats : you need your own money to start,as borrowing seed capital doesn’t work. And don’t over borrow, keep the loan to value around 60 - 65%. Demand supply is and will always be behind the curve. It’s designed to be that way.

    • @MovingHomewithCharlie
      @MovingHomewithCharlie  5 днів тому

      They've been right twice already in the last 30 years

  • @01menyou
    @01menyou 5 днів тому

    Houses are a poor investment that, on average, go up in price but down in value.
    However they are not an example of a Ponzi.
    A Ponzi scheme has no underlying utility and relies simply on enough coming in, in new money, to pay off the early joiners.
    Houses, bad as they are, do have a residual scrap value as they exist and can be lived in.

  • @delgriffithification
    @delgriffithification 4 дні тому

    I thought houses haven't gone up in real terms since 2002 or something? I struggle to keep up with all this stuff.
    Just buy if you can, live in it and you'll do just fine.

  • @geralddelapascua
    @geralddelapascua 5 днів тому

    the hilarious thing is there's an advert with those two people just by the video !!!!

    • @MovingHomewithCharlie
      @MovingHomewithCharlie  5 днів тому

      no f***king way, are you serious?!

    • @geralddelapascua
      @geralddelapascua 4 дні тому

      @@MovingHomewithCharlie yes indeed, do you think the youtube algorithm has worked out who the loud lady is ??? shame it didn't work out that maybe no one would follow from that recommendation !!!

  • @ShaneJackson
    @ShaneJackson 5 днів тому

    Charlie I have to disagree if we had a world wide financial crisis and yet property prices have doubled why wouldn’t they do the same in 10 years?
    Inflation is inflation dept is eroding every day and the value of your money is diminishing so everything you said is just not correct.
    The larger property owners will remortgage when interest rates drop and pick up a ton of property.
    Being asset rich and cash poor is the only way to succeed in a world that’s build its economy on dept. (Government , commercial and domestic.)
    The only thing that absolutely terrifies me as a small business owner is stagflation and my god is this becoming a massive problem after the budget!

    • @MovingHomewithCharlie
      @MovingHomewithCharlie  4 дні тому

      Your argument is basically "The past must equal the future". There are countless reasons why the world is in a different place now, not least the difference in national debt levels. That's an oversimplified view, and a reason why so many people get caught out. "It happened before, why not again?" A little simplistic!

    • @ShaneJackson
      @ShaneJackson 4 дні тому +1

      @ I agree it is simplistic but the agreement this time is different is also simplistic.
      There are always ways to argue why the market (stocks or housing) should implode but there are also so many ways that borrowing capacity and liquidity in the financial markets will stop any larger drops in the market.
      For example if the housing market drops 30% affordability calculations allow a greater number of people to borrow thus increasing demand and then prices will recover.
      Im sorry but Father Time always heals all national financial wounds as inflation devalues currency and thus increases borrowing capacity.

  • @TrishWalmsley-jh3tz
    @TrishWalmsley-jh3tz 5 днів тому +5

    Sam... Sam...

  • @stephengreen8986
    @stephengreen8986 5 днів тому +1

    Admit it Charlie. You are shorting the market. Indeed you and Alex are a pair of shorts. We are all hunkered down in our houses ready to get rich beyond our wildest dreams and buying any newspaper that confirms it. 😇

  • @fishslappr
    @fishslappr 5 днів тому

    Is the currency ponzi ending?

  • @andrewsims8135
    @andrewsims8135 5 днів тому

    It's it bad for the country tho xx

  • @MrBeats44
    @MrBeats44 5 днів тому

    We call this Guru “Billy Bradford”

  • @Jenks1
    @Jenks1 4 дні тому

    bigger number better - number better bigger

  • @wind.del.change
    @wind.del.change 4 дні тому

    no. your pension is ending.

  • @James-lq1po
    @James-lq1po 4 дні тому

    That little turd came up in an advert right after this video 😂

  • @petedavid5127
    @petedavid5127 5 днів тому +1

    UK house prices are projected to rise significantly over the next 25 years. In the short term, prices are expected to increase by about 25% over the next five years, driven by lower mortgage rates and improved affordability. Over a longer period, house prices could grow by 64% by 2050, with steady increases anticipated every decade. However, market fluctuations and economic factors such as interest rates and inflation could influence these projections, leading to potential variability in growth rates.

    • @MovingHomewithCharlie
      @MovingHomewithCharlie  5 днів тому +5

      Projected by whom? Oh! The people selling houses and mortgages! Righto.

    • @RabJ208
      @RabJ208 5 днів тому

      Correct! Properties have been on that trajectory since the year 1066 (almost 1000 years). Data.

    • @tufailkhan1
      @tufailkhan1 5 днів тому

      @@MovingHomewithCharlieprojected by the mind of the deluded who has so much invested

    • @andrewlam5021
      @andrewlam5021 4 дні тому

      😂 hopium and delusion

  • @change2023now
    @change2023now 5 днів тому +1

    The property Ponzi is ending just as the crypto Ponzi is starting 😅😂

  • @malwidajatt
    @malwidajatt 4 дні тому

    Look if Trump can come back from political exile, then so can Liz Truss. We need you Lizzie ! Bring back the lettuce. ❤

  • @petedavid5127
    @petedavid5127 5 днів тому +2

    Landlords don’t give a damn if properties go up or down in value their income is from the rent

    • @MovingHomewithCharlie
      @MovingHomewithCharlie  5 днів тому

      incorrect - the returns from rental income alone aren't sufficient to make it a viable investment any more for leveraged landlords.

    • @RabJ208
      @RabJ208 5 днів тому

      Very true! In a parallel universe somewhere in a land where property prices actually drop and inflation doesn't exist (not on this planet) but assuming for the sake of argument that on another planet somewhere house prices figuratively speaking 'grow on trees' - there is NO reason for anyone who is NOT selling a property to worry about a price drop (why would there be?). There will be fluctuations here and there in any investment journey; but property investors in general look long-term. Back 20 years ago, when I started out, they were saying the same things then as they say here on this channel. Lol

  • @witofthestaircase1
    @witofthestaircase1 23 години тому

    It seems that we all have the capacity to be the greater fool.