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THIS is Why I Don't EV Bet!
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- Опубліковано 3 сер 2024
- Welcome back to the GMG Channel, it's your host me. Today, we look at a specific example of an opportunity with massive value. While many would tell you there's only one way to approach this situation, I try to give you some alternatives that may make you more comfortable.
Please feel free to comment, ask questions, or roast me. IDC. No one reads the description anyway.
I totally agree with you.
Its a personal choice when it comes down to it.
I also Think Ev betting is not for everyone for the simple fact,
Everyone does not have the same mind set.
I have done a lot of playing with extremely small unit size just to try a few diff things.
You just need to do what you feel comfortable with in the end.
This is a great video. He clearly put a lot of effort creating it. Very informative. Very honest. Thumbs up.
You are right because EV is subjective. Expected values are derived from odds, and no one knows how exactly odds are set. How to determine real EV if the method of odds being set is not known? Without real EV, then how to determine +EV?
Really like this take man. Sportsbetting is fun but the swings can take a huge toll. Daily consistent profits beat highs/lows every day of the week. Only time to +EV bet is with a bankroll you can stomach the ups/downs with. And if your unit size for +EV betting is anything below $100, you'll likely make more with arbitrage/matched betting.
yo bro u got telegram or discord i have a few questions
Finally, other people are speaking about this. Everyone is riding that +ev dik and I’m like yea, EV is important, ONLY after determining which side of the line is sharp. I’m a square bettor so trying to get someone to have this convo with me was brutal at first. Maybe I’m sharper than I thought
this is why you are a square lol
thats when kelly criterion comes in place ..
This was just a roundabout way of saying EV betting is profitable if you know what trends to look at
I honestly have no idea what you're point was in this video.
Hedging out your lines is basically either showing you're uncomfortable with how much you're betting, so bet less.
Or you are too scared to let bets ride / think your own opinion trumps the market number. So you should be betting the sharp book you're taking the 'correct market' number from?
But unless you have a good sample of being a profitable bettor, then thinking your opinion trumps the market number is not smart.
Betting isn't for you, at least from the way you are speaking in this video.
hmmm maybe I am out of the loop but when you place a bet it is either plus expected value or negative expected value. Is EV something else to you? It has to be bc no way you are recommending - EV bets over + EV bets. Very confusing video
I apologize for not being clear. I was trying to say that the overwhelming and growing popularity of +EV betting should be looked at carefully. I was just trying to show that it’s not as “sunshine and rainbows” as all the Internet personalities claim it to be
@@greenmeansgosports Oddsjam sort of relies on other books pricing to try to find bets. Its not bad but def better ways like modeling with a projection system and simulations. Much easier to to know EV of a bet also with tell you the % chance of winning the bet. What I think happened was you played high + EV bets but their chances of winning were low below 55%. When they are it can take longer to realize that value but it is still value. for example tonight
NBA
J Johnson o2.5 assists -180 80% chance of hitting per simulations. 15% edge (win % over implied) and 23% +EV
J Champaigne o0.5 blocks +290 has jjust a 43% chance of winnng per the sims 66% +EV and 17% edge over implied.
going to take much longer with Champaigne even though higher EV bc less than a 55% chance of it actually hitting.
I think you were betting high +EV bets but that had very low winning percentage and taking too long to realize the expected value. even something that wins 67% of the time if bankroll is smaller but again just going off other books isnt the worst but far from best.
very good point man.
I have a family to take care of, I know the long term math and have heard the sneers, but I have consistent bankroll growth and a happy stress free marriage and home life. I'm thrilled with my choice to take the sure money.
Just one point of caution from personal experience: If a line is wildly off from the rest of the market, I have had bets voided at the last second due to the odds being an obvious mistake. In those cases you could get caught with a large sum of money on one side of the bet.
True...I think that's why he didn't place the hedges until the game started. Once the game starts and the bets haven't voided, you're in the clear.
Hiw do you make a whole video about how bad ev betting is on a sample size of 1 day. Been EV betting since december with a consistent 30% roi.
I have all sorts of issues with EV twitter and the oddsscam stuff but to say EV betting doest work is like saying card counting doesnt work because you lost money one session.
Word of wison to anyone that wants to try EV betting. Own your data and understand that not all EV opportunities are created equal.
Entirely fair. I did acknowledge it was a small sample. I’m just trying to show that these were massive EV and still lost. And there are other risks that EV communities never discuss. I dont blame anyone for how they bet, just want everyone to be informed and aware of the risks. Thanks for stopping by. I’ll be more clear in my next videos
I think people don’t seem to get that +ev doesn’t mean that the bet is more likely to hit, no matter how big the +ev % bet is it does not affect his chances to cash
What? It's not an "EV bet" it's a +EV bet. And yes, the only good bet is a +EV bet. Whats ur other strategy a -EV bet? 😅 Yes you are wrong. If you can't take a +EV bet it means your bankroll isnt high enough to handle it. This line of work isn't for you
I get it. You don’t speak broke 🤝
Exactly. This guy's a clown.
Phil galfond pretender
Can you explain this
“I’m wrong about ev”
Oh my god, he admit it