Відео

Josh should’ve won it last year, Lamar this year. Like embiid vs jokic, they didn’t want to give it b2b (jokcic woudge be 3x but you get my point )

Can you make a vid about your opinion on Fliff buying Mojo's Tech and how it will change +EV betting?

I've had long term success with +EV, but watching someone like @sloplocks live stream daily will show variance and how you can have some really really bad days. Transparency is key.

Tell LongNguyen-ho9qf to go pound sand!

Don't listen to these negative people. Zone them out. Most are enjoying what you do. Thanks

Great Video. Thanks for the honesty. Subscribed!

I paused halfway because yes Steph has had a rough season but he’s at least top 5

What ever happened to instant replay?????

They are the Kansas City Cheaters !!!!!!!!

Let's be honest, if Lamar were white and Allen black, Lamar would have won this MVP.

They gave Allen a "lifetime achievement" MVP

Some think Allen should have won last year instead of Jackson, so maybe they were righting their wrong..I don't know! In a week nobody will remember because our attention will be on to the next thing 🤣

100K on the way!!!

Agree 100% with your FanDuel take

EV could mean years sometimes.. 1 positive season, 1 negative season followed by another positive season resulting in net profit.. Its super delayed gratificaiton sometimes..

Another great vid! A gentle rebuttal.... About not wanting to place any bet just because its +EV. I would classify this as "depends". I get why you dont want to play a +3500 bet even if its +EV, but thats more due to your choice of betting style. If you were to eventually find 30-35 other +EV plays with similar odds that were also +EV, the math says you should make those bets......but very few people want to do that. I sure dont! For most people, staying in a -150 to +150 bet range makes more sense, since the less bet volume it takes for the math to work in your favor. As far as being limited affecting profiting from +EV play, I guess it depends how much you're trying to make. Like you, Im limited on a lot of books, but even at $10-$20 per bet, i can still average $100 a day in profit. Three grand a month is not gonna get me a private jet, but its nothing to sneeze at either. In fact, limiting helped me in a way, because getting down more bets makes a +EV strategy work better. Volume is the key! Here's a reason why i dont trust +EV totally. The is no definitive way to know if a bet is really +EV. If all the analysis says it is, and then the line moves and suddenly it isnt... Well who's right? If there was a way to definitely know that "the chance of LeBron James scoring at least 25 points is 62.25%", then we'd all be rich, but thats never happening. What you are really doing is trying to use sportsbooks' prices to do handicapping - and then finding a price different than the others. You might be better off doing the handicapping yourself. Positive EV is just a game of averages, but then so is the stock market. In both cases, the better the analysis, the better you will do.

Man this comment section is wild lol. If you see a play you like and its -120 on 8 books and +130 on one book, you guys dont want to know this information?

Ever since gambling sites came aboveground the NFL quality is 🤮

I think EV is simply a tool for me. I like to handicap and I use EV to direct me in bet selection. It doesn’t have to be simply betting every line that could be even remotely off, it’s a reminder to bet based not just on my pick, but also on wether or not a bet is even worth placing. It makes it easier to find bets when I’m considering price and probability, not simply one or the other. People only consider the theoretical with this kind of stuff but the reality is that we tie our emotions and opinions to our betting styles, so I like to split my goals between consistently winning and my expected value. I may lose some value in the long term, but I’m also allowing myself to find a balance so I can avoid long losing streaks and tilting. Some people may prefer a complete opposite approach but it’s really about how you wanna bet and what works for you. There is no one size fits all, unless a person a can truly bet purely on numbers and not care about going on big losing streaks. Someone like me can get very down when they go on losing streaks, so aiming for consistency over pure long term value can be beneficial for guys like us.

Just bet that 10-leg parlay dawg

Would be easier just to lose an account for a couple years to keep them fresh

Please get to the point in your videos. No one has time for you to go on a five minute tangent about you biting your lip. No one cares about that you’re wasting our time.

You should take the Magic No line on Circa then

-all bets are EV bets. - if the probability the bet wins or how much we can win is high enough, it’s +EV and those are generally the good bets we should make. -if the probability the bet wins or how much we can win is not high enough, it’s -EV and those are generally the bad bets we should not make. -eventually our EV will converge and equal our results. -if there are barriers that stop us from getting to “the long run”, that’s the most important issue that needs to be addressed to earn any money.

As someone who’s starting to get limited, curious what your limits are? On some books I can only place 1-10$ per bet, don’t think this is even worth the hassle to arb or +ev

As an EV bettor I have struggled to beat Fan Duel the way I have crushed other books. I'm profitable but not nearly as profitable when compared to the others. I had to do a time consuming data dive on multiple historical EV databases. I found Fan Duel is the sharpest mainstream book for NBA props. If you assume Pinny is sharp on NBA props - Fan duel has a negative ROI when devigged to them. Even more so when devigged to the soft books. This I believe is where capping comes in to beat FanDuel. If you blindly play the numbers game you will not be as successful. Oddly enough Fan Duel is extremely soft in the football market.

If someone gives you 10000 to 1 on anything take it. - Kevin Malone 😂

My 3rd time trying oddsjam. Longest time, 4th month in it. Very difficult at times and value is not always value. Doesn't work the same for everyone for sure. It can be Very difficult and I got limited even when losing on ESPN bet and bet365 for example . A good blend is ideal: EV and handicapping.

I love your content ! Your like the Caspersight of Sports betting. Keep doin your thang

I completely agree with you on FanDuel. I find my most profitable EV bets being off of NBA player prop markets if I base it off FD lines.

Yeah ok it's fixed they can go to just making the right call and they know it I don't let any of thr garbage fool me call the game fair tht simple

I skipped the ev craze all together. arbing helped me point to the books that were off/sharp and turned most of my picks to low holds/free bets algorithms (which I guess is still probably EV in some sort of way, just not utilizing the software that promotes it. Taught me that MGM is great for baseball, Fliff low holds and Free bets, any long shot Betrivers sub +200 bet the other way, etc. Really changed the way I placed bets. I also came way down and went more volume betting where I used to pick my 5 favorites and get destroyed. Helps with the mental health to lose but not get creamed. been a tremendously fun journey and instead of betting sports, I'm playing book lines.

Agree 100%, I have to add, the books know all about the EV sites, and your fooling yourself, if you don't believe that they set traps. Also betting in a herd of other bettors, is not profitable for a long term situation. The math supports that.

enjoy the breakfast and thanks for some nice thoughts :)

EV BETTING IS WASTE. HOW ANY ONE CAN PREDICT HOW MANY WATCHES SHOULD I PLACE PER DAY AND WHAT IF ALL MY BETS LOST

😎

Appreciate the content and the transparent chat. Limited accounts is the biggest issue facing arb bettors (me, you). When you get limited, how much do they restrict your bet size? Or do they restrict the number of bets?

The low limits and not having to decide the bet size should actually make it easier to take all the +EV lines. I can see not betting life-changing (or even month-changing) money on a longshot just because it's EV, but with low limits, just throw the money down.

This isn't bad officiating. This is intentional by the nFl. Games are rigged to follow the storylines the nFl develops during the season. The nFl has already stated in a court of law that games are not legitimate sports events but instead are "entertainment." AKA=Rigged.

Texans should have won corrupt refs and the useless NFL

i dont know why but the "its your host... me" cracks me up hahaha

DAMNIT you said Jake D for Carolina I’m out lol

I do thought you were about to say Mike Vick for Atlanta, I’m still in tho

Defund the referees!

1: Kyle Trask 2: Carson Wentz 3: Kirk Cousins 4: Bart Starr 5: Zach Wilson 6: Teddy Bridgewater 7: Kerry Collins 8: Sam Howell 9: Jacoby Brissett 10: Jake Browning

W list, i agreed with all of these hopefully cade and edwards can get some help next year

Amazing take I agree 100% I bet he is not reinstated.

You are doing work. #goodjuju to your MLB season GMG!

It’s entertainment nothing more then the WWE

With the beliefs that everyone has now about the NFL being rigged, re-watch the Falcons , Patriots Superbowl, very rigged