A&M is gettin all kinds of motivation to not overlook South Carolina. It’s not a trap game if everyone keeps saying it is. Whenever everyone says it’s a game the underdog could/will win, then generally the favorite blows out the other team in those situations it seems.
I’m an Aggie. Our offense is very suspect. Coming off a big emotional win like we did, playing on the road at SC at night, it’s set up for a trap game. On paper you say “oh, A&M is going to win easy”, then the game is played and the team is just flat. It happens.
@@AndrewSurla-this strange season what’s on paper has made very little difference. Kentucky over Ole Miss in Oxford? Vanderbilt over Bama? Arkansas over Tennessee?
Lost a lot of respect for the JP Poll having Bama and Ole Miss top 10. Even in a rating system it’s absurd. Tennessee, LSU, TAMU should all be above those 2. There is no world where anyone watches those 5 teams and thinks Ole Miss and Bama are the best 2. The model is higher than Tyrone Biggums.
@@nickmckeel895its based off stats and who would be favored on a neutral field. He literally tells you how it works every time he puts out the jp poll. LSU was one pass away from not beating Ole miss and they were at home. On a neutral field Ole Miss would still be favored
He would never pick against his buckeyes, he can’t help his love for Day. This weekend will end it. And he will be forced to say the Day criticism was correct
Incredible talent but still a first year, I watched it happen to my team too. Did really good just had those first and second year gaffs. If A&M runs the table and wins the SEC I will be impressed, they have the talent in their locker room that’s for sure
Rarely disagree with Pate’s takes. But if Indiana goes 11-1, they will 100% be in the playoff and there won’t even be a debate. Further, if there is, the playoff era won’t be a long one.
I think it depends on teams elsewhere, if there’s a bunch of 9-3 teams then I think they’ll squeeze in there. The first playoff committee release will tell you more about whether or not it’s a true or close prediction. If Indiana is outside the top 10 undefeated it could be close
Depends on who else has 1 loss and possibly 2 losses. Resume will matter when it comes to the chopping block. The B1G has a handful of good teams, they just don’t really play each other. An inept Michigan really hurt the B1G this year. It’s hard to put a 1 loss team in with no ranked wins when you have a handful of 1 loss teams with multiple ranked wins. I think if Penn State loses this weekend, they might be on the bubble and could miss out. SOS matters, and I think people will be surprised how much it’s going to matter when it comes to same records.
I think for every reason pate listed there is absolutely a way an 11-1 indiana misses out. If osu loses to penn state and beats indiana, then penn state will play Oregon in the big 10 championship. No way the big 10 gets 4 teams in, and no way an 11-1 indiana gets in over the 10-2 Ohio state that beat them. That's all it needs to be.
It depends on the 10-2 teams, they won’t get in over any 10-2 SEC teams. They just won’t have the wins to do so. They won’t have a ranked win at all. So it just depends on the team.
Making the case for a 9-3 LSU over 11-1 Indiana is just insane. Indiana gets in without a doubt. The SEC is also more likely to get 3 teams in than 5 teams in....
@@ataturk_33 Quality of opponent matters, don’t fool yourself into thinking that being undefeated against the bottom half of the Big Ten is any better than having three losses in the SEC. Have you seen the difference in talent that goes into the NFL draft every year?
Key stat: Texas A&M is 22nd in passing efficiency defense. So even though teams have thrown up for a lot of yards against them, they don’t throw very well. so many yards because they throw for so many passes because you can’t run it all against A&M
I’ve also noticed that the Ags might give up a lot of yards, but that’s it. The points scored don’t seem to match the yards they let the other team have.
@@PrimalGemini85 for sure. the other thing about upsets is that there has to be matchups that are favorable for the team vying for an upset. like vandy. their weaknesses on offense were negated by alabama's undisciplined play on defense. meanwhile, bama's one dimensional offense played into the strength of Vandy of a solid secondary that carries the defense for the most part. thats where the upset was. meanwhile, where are those matchups for SCAR? they dont exist. you cant run, you can try passing but it wont go well even if you get a couple big plays but that happens when you throw 50 times a game. this last week against LSU: 3 total touchdowns for nuss with 400 yards. sounds like a winning formula? well a couple big throws led to those touchdowns but he had a 50% completion percentage so LSU had a lot of dead drives. thats pass EFFICIENCY. you may get some big plays to make the numbers look good, but 3 75 yard drives gets you 21 points. thats not enough to beat A&M most games. the SCAR defense could try loading the box but teams have tried that and it hasnt gone really well. SCAR's defense also isnt top 50 in any meaningful stat that they could exploit to get some stops and slow down this avalanche on the ground. I dont see A&M losing.
@@PanthersFan44 I doubt they will. Elko and his staff has the team getting better every week. Plus, I’ll be at the game and I paid good money for those tickets. 😆
A&M soundly beat 3 of the teams in the top 25. 2 by double digits. There’s no way A&M wouldn’t be favored over Tennessee. I’d bet the farm on it if I ever got the spread. A&M is a 4.5 point underdog to Texas. You need to readjust your model JP 🤷♂️
A&M had better hope that *if* they find themselves on a bubble, they are next to Tenn. We all know there are preferred and non-preferred teams to be placed into the post-season, if the choice is close. A&M and Tenn fall into the latter category (along with ISU, Indiana, etc.). Do not make the CFP have to choose between A&M/Tenn/Most-any-other-team and ND (again). It will only end well for one team. The same one. Every. Time.
@@Agg1E91 oh yeah there’s no doubt A&M would get left out if they’re on the bubble. Even with the more impressive resume. We already saw this take place in 2020
I’m agreeing with JP’s assessment that A&M’s biggest wins were when the other team didn’t have time to prepare against the substitute QB. Reed got stale by his 2nd or 3rd game and Weigman came back in hot. I’m not sure the Ags have a solidly proven QB yet. Most teams come out soft and flat out of the ‘bye’. A&M’s D will keep them in the game and our running game will prove to be the point maker for the Ags. Ags win this one.
I finally understand JP's ranking system. The reason BYU never makes it into his top teams according to the model it's because the model is attempting to mimic the Vegas oddsmakers. But if you look at the odds for BYU, they have significantly and consistently had BYU way undervalued. They're seven and one against the spread but it's not even close. In the games where they've beaten the spread they beaten it by like double digits. The UCF game is the perfect example. If JP's model thinks UCF was a 2.5 favorite over BYU then yeah BYU should be about 35th in the ranking. But then in the fourth quarter BYU is up 34-10 and has absolutely dismantled UCF. So if the Vegas oddsmakers have been consistently wrong well then to be consistent, JP's model should also be wrong. The question is what is wrong with Vegas and JP's model that it has consistently totally missed on its point spread for BYU? Answer me that question and I think we will have the secret sauce to why BYU is winning.
It's almost certainly the missionaries. Trying to accurately quantify team talent when the majority of their players will leave for 2-3 years in the middle of their careers is extremely difficult. It's extreme roster turnover, except it's not, and now you're trying to guess how a 20 year old freshman is going to perform after wearing a suit and tie for the past couple years.
Wait, so 2024 Vandy is maybe questionable as a Top 40 JP Poll team but 2024 OU is not? If by 11/30 OU is 6-5, then maybe, if they are 7-4 then absolutely. Otherwise you are talking about a team which doesn't have a winning season. Yes, they are IN the SEC, but they have shown, so far, that they AREN'T YET an SEC team.
As an A&M fan im more worried about the game agains SC than i was against LSU, but to be fair that might be my BAS, bc ive watched them play good before and right at the end crash
@@tullfarley4962 ou and michgian are currently unranked. Texas only beat OU and Michigan by large numbers cuz of their shit offenses lmao. Both teams are barely .500
Kyle field capacity 103k, student section 38k. Williams-Brice Stadium capacity 78k, student section 13k. Im thinking South Carolina isnt going to be able to replicate the environment of Kyle Field.
lol, you do realize that when you play at home the crowd is quiet on offense to help you make plays and concentrate?why would Kyle field be loud when A&M has the ball? this comment makes literally 0 sense. I'm an SC fan and I think it'll be a fun one regardless between two powerhouse defenses, but your comment is literally pointless.
No chance but they’re a good team and it will a good environment. We’ll have to bring our A game, if we do that, we’ll win, if not it will be very tough
@prince.davvvid the goal is to be loud when the away team's offense is on the field to interfere with their communication and cadence. In the LSU v A&M game that Josh referenced LSU had 3 false start penalties and a ball snapped on a field goal attempt when the holder wasn't looking. The A&M home crowd had a measurable impact on LSU's offense. In my opinion South Carolina isnt going to be able to replicate that (like Josh said they would try to) because of the significantly smaller student section and Stadium. I agree, it's gonna be an amazing game and I'm looking forward to it. Best of luck to you and your team.
Never been to Autzen have you? Louder than stadiums with 40% higher capacity’s. 129 decibels against the Buckeyes. I wouldn’t make a prediction based on capacity
@ndfitz3721 i haven't watched you since the blowout loss to bama in the 2013 championship game because you didn't deserve to be there then and you don't deserve to be in talks of a title game now. That's all
Top 3 hardest November schedules for ranked teams: 1. Pittsburgh 2. Clemson 3. Ohio State Top 3 easiest November schedules for ranked teams: 1. Washington State 2. Tennessee 3. Colorado
@@johnc1256hey now WPS n yes hoops starts Monday n the hogs are over 500 in football so yes we care one of these days hogs gonn be in playoffs just takes the right donor w the right money WPS!
Aren't they an 8 pt underdog this week to SMU? The rating seems pretty accurate.. this is predicting who would be favored .. but being favored doesn't mean your better... Just determines where the money is going. BYU continues to destroy Vegas.
Lmao.. He said the same thing last week and picked LSU. LSU Defense is stout and O-line will win up front… SC defense is also good, but has a terrible OL… Great pick Josh ✌🏼
The flaw with the “model” is that it shouldn’t be relying so much on the previous year, this far in to the current year. If it was purely based on this year, you can’t present me a valid argument Texas is #5 and A&M is #12. Strength of record is not even close
I believe that this is going to be the year Penn st wins been many years ago since they one and I couldn't believe Aurburn was favored over vandy 😂😅😂😅❤
It has nothing to do with ND. ESPN has a $300M investment in texas ($1B in Penn State). They’re the pretty boys and when they’re ranked high, ppl with conflicts of interest make big bucks from them! They’re always the pretty boys in the world of marketing. PPL also love to hate A&M and many are still hungover from the Jimbo Fisher days. He did the Ags a lot of damage. Right now, texas is a wiser and more profitable business decision this year. 😡
@@Hey_OverHerewrong. It’s not a conspiracy theory. They have to be behind ND for now because the loss. ND hasn’t done enough to jump Texas, Tennessee, or Georgia. It’s simple.
Hmm I feel some a$m hate 🤔 Reed has looked unstoppable, sc gets sacked alot and against our defense line oof. Yall keep doubting the aggies. Motivation 🎶
Pretty sure nobody reads this while you're waxing eloquent. I was in college in Eugene, OR and it was summertime and the town had emptied out. I forget what was keeping me in town but EVERYONE had left. It was some kind of summertime "holiday" or just that point where nobody goes to a day job. The imitation crab in the refrigerator smelled funny but I made an omelet anyhow. Four hours later I was HALLUCINATING as I p*ked. I remember EVERYTHING about the next four hours and it's pretty much an amazing conversation with God. A MAZ ING. I am NOT going to recommend food poisoning as transcendence but forty years later it carries some weight.
Putting the word"Power"in from of any conference but the SEC and Big 10 is a misnomer. Miami will finish the season w/o playing a currently ranked team SoS is BYU has current No. 17 Kansas State Iowa has Kansas State coming Kansas State has Iowa State One of those will go.... 2 is a stretch.
I like how he says if Indiana goes 11-1 there’s a chance they could not go to the playoffs but if Iowa State went 11-1 he’d fight tooth and nail for them to be in
I don't understand your poll. Ole Miss loses to a very bad UK at home, Alabama loses to UT and beats a very bad Mizzou team, but both are above UT who lost to top 25 Arky and UT is above In conference undefeated Team? Also, Clemson has beat no one... still
In case your wondering about the Big Ten scenario. It would go to the 5th tiebreaker which is the rating that SportsSource Analytics (whoever the hell that is) gives them. If they tie that, it’s a random drawing by the commissioner
Got a massive match up between Georgia and Tennessee coming up in 2 weeks. Can’t wait to go there on my birthday. Can the Vols pull off the best win of the season?
The Heisman votes should be tied to the strength of record for their respective team but at the same time giving a player on a bad team credence because of their importance to their team. At some point, you also have to include the "eye" test. How do you determine who's in the running? 130 something teams with at least 22 players that theoretically could win. Is it mostly politics or does this award find the true best player every year?
I think they do a decent enough job, there are so many positions and so many teams that the “perfect” candidate is totally subjective. But even with that I haven’t seen a pick that was clearly incorrect, an a good argument could be made for the top pick every year even if you disagree with it
I still contest that Payton Mannings mvp year should be the year he was out with a neck injury and the team went 2-14 because they made the playoffs in the year before and the year after... How does that not PROVE that you're the most valuable player on your team?
Michigan has played Texas, Washington & Illinois. They play Indiana, Oregon and OSU. Pretty good strength of schedule. But no way do they make the play off. Strength of schedule doesn't always mean you are a top team. A one loss Indiana or a three loss LSU? Hard to explain picking LSU.
44:10 This is actually a textbook example of a gambler’s fallacy. A coin landing on heads 10 times in a row doesn’t change the odds that it lands on tails the next flip. I know the model is a bit different due to recalibrations but it still sets the spread at the best point where it could go either way
@@user-tz2zz5ij1sI thought that formula applied to (and ultimately discredited) the hot hand fallacy. I remember them using it when looking at Klay Thompson’s shooting streaking and mathematically confirming hot streaks in sports exist. But I don’t know if something like that is applicable to a team based result that is continually reset on arbitrary lines.
@@user-tz2zz5ij1sI took several statistics courses too… If I made a mistake I’m fine with that, but your tone makes you seem like a pompous jerk with no social skills. There’s no reason to not fully articulate the reasoning behind your argument if you properly understand the material you’re talking about. I would be happy to learn more but no one is happy being insulted.
The lack of discussing SMU-Pitt even though it is one of only 2 ranked match-ups this week (don’t care that Pitt isn’t power rates high) is a shame to the sport. Arguably the 2nd best game of the day but nope gotta talk about sec games instead
I wish Pate would take his kind words about A&M and just stop speaking them. He’s not high on this team or Elko. He doesn’t believe in his philosophy. Fun fact Pate, actions speak louder than words. And you’ve bet against A&M multiple times this year. So make sure to keep that same tone on November 30th, please. No hard feelings
I get what you mean but it’s hard from his perspective to bet on this team consistently when we rank so poorly nationally in pass offense and defense. A&M and Elko’s best traits this year are intangible and models just can’t calculate for those. I really believe he’s that high on A&M after this year, but he’s not confident in this team’s ability to sustain dominance without dominating across the board statistically. I personally think every game is entirely up for grabs and I trust Elko to put them team in the best position to win. Regardless of final record I’m behind this team and I’m glad I can know that they got everything out of this group possible.
Weird how the model had #10 Bama as a 10 point favorite over #25 Arky but #12 TAMU was only a 1 point favorite over #26 SCAR (assuming 3 point home swing). Something seems off there.
I know this won’t actually happen, BUT… In a hypothetical world where Hunter and Jeanty both complete their respective record shattering seasons, why shouldn’t we be able to have 2 heisman winners in a year to recognize their respective greatness? (And we’ll all sing kumbaya)
Pretty sure the voters would have to collude to get that to happen. Its a ranked choice voting system so a tie probably could happen I guess but I think that would be very unlikely.
FWIW the ESPN Playoff Predictor has 11-1 Indiana with a loss to OSU at 96% to make the playoff. Also, 9-3 LSU with a loss to Florida at 35% so that take definitely wasn’t crazy.
@@danielargo7221 actually in 4 big 10 games, henderson has 38 carries for 242, judkins 45 for 184. that's 83 rushes, 426 yds, that's 5.13/carry for the 2 main runners in league play.
@jamesmarkscott6202 team average out of conference over 9 yards per carry, team average in conference 4.26. Justify all you want. 4.26 isn't bad. It's just not up to OSU expectations.
The Michigan Wolverines are the best team in the country. They just won a Big Ten rivalry game with 0 turnovers and 0 penalties. That is harder to do than pitching a no hitter in baseball.
I agree with the logic of 9-3 LSU making the playoffs but we all know how unpredictable the college football committees are and I feel like they will value conference championship losers higher than most and if that’s the case there’s really only 3 maybe 4 at large spots
Cade will be active on Championship Saturday 👀 If he keeps taking care of the ball and Clemson keeps rolling on O, might be lookin at the Heisman that makes everybody mad 😂 Go Tigers 🐅 P.s Travis should be a lock if Jeanty doesn’t win it
You are what your record says you are crowd arrives late because that’s when your record matters. What’s the point of saying it in week 2? You have to see teams play games.
Ryan Day definitely has the most pressure. Does Ohio State have a quality win compared to everyone else? They lost to the best team they played. If they lose to Penn State, it might be over for them.
Lmao then u didn't pay attention lsu w burrow bama w hurts and Tua and georgia 2 Years ago would blow this oregon team out ! Even if the game were in that awful state
I've never like the idea a QB getting the Hassman trophy. Always believe a runner back should get it and their should be a reward for the QB Position. I believe they have an for award best defense player
Re the Hoosiers convincing wins matter too. Best point differential in the sport right now. A close loss to Ohio State on the road with convincing wins over MSU/Michigan/Purdue and the 11-1 Hoosiers are in.
I’ll have to respectfully disagree with your LSU 9-3 take. If we are sitting here splitting hairs over the 12th and 13th teams and LSU is there at 9-3 in consideration with a couple 10-2 teams or an 11-1 Indiana team, you have to go with the record / fewer losses. At some point Ws and Ls matter.
Bama can run the ball. They are just absolutely refusing to hand the ball off. Half of the runs are QB runs that teams have figured out since Georgia started crashing the safety in the 2nd half
I think Florida should be around 20-22 on the model. Think talent is still giving them a little more than what they need minused for the general ineptitude of the program
Divide College Football into 4 divisions of 64 teams. FBS 1,2,3,4. Each division has 4 conferences/regions of 16 teams. Each team plays 8 conference games. The “playoffs” start with each of the 4 regions in the bracket seeded based on conference standings. The “final four” is the conference champion from each region. The bottom 4 teams are relegated to the lower division, the top 4 conference winners are promoted to the upper division. Let’s stop messing around with whatever this is we’ve created and do it right.
Man the LSU take is stupid. You are telling me that just playing and loosing to top 35 teams is good enough? If we entertain this logic that "LSU played 7 top 40 teams", well as of now they are -19 in point diff vs ranked teams. So let's say they blow out Oklahoma and win small against Florida and Vandy, but loose close to Alabama. Does that mean they are in? Are we really looking at "point differentials" now? Saying that playing good teams close but loosing leads to a better strength of schedule than winning dominantly over "lower ranked" teams is lunacy. TL;DR - Strength of schedule comparisons must not be done when there is a significant gap in team records.
If Clemson runs the table and Texas wins out, Georgia will get in with 3 losses as they would have the best two wins in college football and neither were home games and one a true road game.
A&M is gettin all kinds of motivation to not overlook South Carolina. It’s not a trap game if everyone keeps saying it is. Whenever everyone says it’s a game the underdog could/will win, then generally the favorite blows out the other team in those situations it seems.
Not an SC fan that's a night game there they'll be tuned up so A&M going to have to do something early , Ya'll should have it but that's tricky
I’m an Aggie. Our offense is very suspect. Coming off a big emotional win like we did, playing on the road at SC at night, it’s set up for a trap game. On paper you say “oh, A&M is going to win easy”, then the game is played and the team is just flat. It happens.
Since you’re making these “general” claims. Please show me on paper.
Didn’t happen with Vandy and Bama
@@AndrewSurla-this strange season what’s on paper has made very little difference. Kentucky over Ole Miss in Oxford? Vanderbilt over Bama? Arkansas over Tennessee?
Lost a lot of respect for the JP Poll having Bama and Ole Miss top 10. Even in a rating system it’s absurd. Tennessee, LSU, TAMU should all be above those 2. There is no world where anyone watches those 5 teams and thinks Ole Miss and Bama are the best 2. The model is higher than Tyrone Biggums.
😂
What are you talking about? It’s a predictive analytics model. It’s not based on opinion.
@@gavinfinch2393then how was this model made? I think a opinion was given.
@gavinfinch2393 a predictive analytics model that ignores everything that's happened on the field
@@nickmckeel895its based off stats and who would be favored on a neutral field. He literally tells you how it works every time he puts out the jp poll. LSU was one pass away from not beating Ole miss and they were at home. On a neutral field Ole Miss would still be favored
As a PSU fan. I am very thankful for you picking OSU
Why's that?
@@LannySeals rather be the underdog
@@druhflit8343 ok I was just curious as to the reason because they have been underdog's every year and it doesn't seem to change anything
He would never pick against his buckeyes, he can’t help his love for Day. This weekend will end it.
And he will be forced to say the Day criticism was correct
@LannySeals Boom! Roasted!
I'm happy to see Josh found a fun soda alternative
I love that Pate says he believes in Elko and A&M yet consistently picks against them 🤣 it’s alright we’ll handle business in SC 👍🏻
Incredible talent but still a first year, I watched it happen to my team too. Did really good just had those first and second year gaffs. If A&M runs the table and wins the SEC I will be impressed, they have the talent in their locker room that’s for sure
Shi I’m an Aggie myself and I still hesitate to ever be confident about anything regarding this program ever… BAS hits hard
Rarely disagree with Pate’s takes. But if Indiana goes 11-1, they will 100% be in the playoff and there won’t even be a debate. Further, if there is, the playoff era won’t be a long one.
I think it depends on teams elsewhere, if there’s a bunch of 9-3 teams then I think they’ll squeeze in there. The first playoff committee release will tell you more about whether or not it’s a true or close prediction. If Indiana is outside the top 10 undefeated it could be close
@@Duckswag87 that would be downright sacrilegious
Depends on who else has 1 loss and possibly 2 losses. Resume will matter when it comes to the chopping block. The B1G has a handful of good teams, they just don’t really play each other. An inept Michigan really hurt the B1G this year. It’s hard to put a 1 loss team in with no ranked wins when you have a handful of 1 loss teams with multiple ranked wins. I think if Penn State loses this weekend, they might be on the bubble and could miss out. SOS matters, and I think people will be surprised how much it’s going to matter when it comes to same records.
I think for every reason pate listed there is absolutely a way an 11-1 indiana misses out. If osu loses to penn state and beats indiana, then penn state will play Oregon in the big 10 championship. No way the big 10 gets 4 teams in, and no way an 11-1 indiana gets in over the 10-2 Ohio state that beat them.
That's all it needs to be.
It depends on the 10-2 teams, they won’t get in over any 10-2 SEC teams. They just won’t have the wins to do so. They won’t have a ranked win at all. So it just depends on the team.
Making the case for a 9-3 LSU over 11-1 Indiana is just insane. Indiana gets in without a doubt. The SEC is also more likely to get 3 teams in than 5 teams in....
A 9-3 LSU would be a better team than an 11-1 Indiana
@@killersaxsoloMaybe they should have proven that by winning their games
@@ataturk_33Indiana should have won their single ranked game
@@killersaxsoloif they would’ve beaten USC I may have agreed
@@ataturk_33 Quality of opponent matters, don’t fool yourself into thinking that being undefeated against the bottom half of the Big Ten is any better than having three losses in the SEC. Have you seen the difference in talent that goes into the NFL draft every year?
Josh doing A&M a favor picking against them. We always play better when people doubt. It’s the expectations that get us lol
“We always play” you ain’t on the field bud 🫵😂
@@AndrewSurlaman stop hating, if he is a die hard fan he has the right to say we. 🤡
@@AndrewSurlalol u must be an A&M hater, only haters say stuff like that as if we isn’t ok
Key stat: Texas A&M is 22nd in passing efficiency defense. So even though teams have thrown up for a lot of yards against them, they don’t throw very well. so many yards because they throw for so many passes because you can’t run it all against A&M
I’ve also noticed that the Ags might give up a lot of yards, but that’s it. The points scored don’t seem to match the yards they let the other team have.
@@PrimalGemini85 for sure. the other thing about upsets is that there has to be matchups that are favorable for the team vying for an upset. like vandy. their weaknesses on offense were negated by alabama's undisciplined play on defense. meanwhile, bama's one dimensional offense played into the strength of Vandy of a solid secondary that carries the defense for the most part. thats where the upset was. meanwhile, where are those matchups for SCAR? they dont exist. you cant run, you can try passing but it wont go well even if you get a couple big plays but that happens when you throw 50 times a game. this last week against LSU: 3 total touchdowns for nuss with 400 yards. sounds like a winning formula? well a couple big throws led to those touchdowns but he had a 50% completion percentage so LSU had a lot of dead drives. thats pass EFFICIENCY. you may get some big plays to make the numbers look good, but 3 75 yard drives gets you 21 points. thats not enough to beat A&M most games. the SCAR defense could try loading the box but teams have tried that and it hasnt gone really well. SCAR's defense also isnt top 50 in any meaningful stat that they could exploit to get some stops and slow down this avalanche on the ground. I dont see A&M losing.
@@PanthersFan44 I doubt they will. Elko and his staff has the team getting better every week. Plus, I’ll be at the game and I paid good money for those tickets. 😆
And South Carolina is 4th in pass efficiency defense so what’s your point?
Buddy, use a period
A&M soundly beat 3 of the teams in the top 25. 2 by double digits. There’s no way A&M wouldn’t be favored over Tennessee. I’d bet the farm on it if I ever got the spread. A&M is a 4.5 point underdog to Texas. You need to readjust your model JP 🤷♂️
The JP model exists to draw interactions
@ eh idk. It’s pretty good about predicting spreads for the most part. I just don’t think Alabama or Tennessee would be favored over A&M
A&M had better hope that *if* they find themselves on a bubble, they are next to Tenn. We all know there are preferred and non-preferred teams to be placed into the post-season, if the choice is close.
A&M and Tenn fall into the latter category (along with ISU, Indiana, etc.). Do not make the CFP have to choose between A&M/Tenn/Most-any-other-team and ND (again). It will only end well for one team. The same one. Every. Time.
@@Agg1E91 oh yeah there’s no doubt A&M would get left out if they’re on the bubble. Even with the more impressive resume. We already saw this take place in 2020
I don't think you understand efficiency ratings.
Josh, WHY do you think Penn State and Ole Miss would beat Notre Dame? Be specific.
He just says anything with that microphone
History for one.
@@johnnaylor1706 What history? And are you that stupid that you think games that happened in the past somehow carry over to THIS year?
I’m agreeing with JP’s assessment that A&M’s biggest wins were when the other team didn’t have time to prepare against the substitute QB. Reed got stale by his 2nd or 3rd game and Weigman came back in hot.
I’m not sure the Ags have a solidly proven QB yet.
Most teams come out soft and flat out of the ‘bye’. A&M’s D will keep them in the game and our running game will prove to be the point maker for the Ags.
Ags win this one.
I finally understand JP's ranking system. The reason BYU never makes it into his top teams according to the model it's because the model is attempting to mimic the Vegas oddsmakers.
But if you look at the odds for BYU, they have significantly and consistently had BYU way undervalued. They're seven and one against the spread but it's not even close. In the games where they've beaten the spread they beaten it by like double digits.
The UCF game is the perfect example. If JP's model thinks UCF was a 2.5 favorite over BYU then yeah BYU should be about 35th in the ranking. But then in the fourth quarter BYU is up 34-10 and has absolutely dismantled UCF. So if the Vegas oddsmakers have been consistently wrong well then to be consistent, JP's model should also be wrong.
The question is what is wrong with Vegas and JP's model that it has consistently totally missed on its point spread for BYU?
Answer me that question and I think we will have the secret sauce to why BYU is winning.
It's almost certainly the missionaries. Trying to accurately quantify team talent when the majority of their players will leave for 2-3 years in the middle of their careers is extremely difficult. It's extreme roster turnover, except it's not, and now you're trying to guess how a 20 year old freshman is going to perform after wearing a suit and tie for the past couple years.
Model has been more right about ND than Pate
Wait, so 2024 Vandy is maybe questionable as a Top 40 JP Poll team but 2024 OU is not?
If by 11/30 OU is 6-5, then maybe, if they are 7-4 then absolutely. Otherwise you are talking about a team which doesn't have a winning season.
Yes, they are IN the SEC, but they have shown, so far, that they AREN'T YET an SEC team.
I just want A&M to win so I can hit my total wins over bet. Come on boys make me some money. 🙏
As an A&M fan im more worried about the game agains SC than i was against LSU, but to be fair that might be my BAS, bc ive watched them play good before and right at the end crash
In Elko We Trust.
Until he gives us a few reasons not to.
In Elko We Trust gig em baby WHOOP!!! this saturday we BTHO south carolina 👍🏼
I God I trust. But I’m more concerned about this game than I was about LSU as well.
Any opportunity to crap on Notre Dame. You never disappoint me.
What is Texas best win in JP poll? what is the difference between them and clemson?
They play in a real Conference😂
Vandy on the road this year is a better win than anybody on Clemson’s schedule
@@atenco01 I know the ACC blows, my team plays in the SEC. Texas best win in an unranked vandy by 1 possession. lol
@@matthewsalinas8879Texas beat the dog out of OU, held them to no TD’s.
Texas also beat Michigan when they were ranked #9
@@tullfarley4962 ou and michgian are currently unranked. Texas only beat OU and Michigan by large numbers cuz of their shit offenses lmao. Both teams are barely .500
Kyle field capacity 103k, student section 38k.
Williams-Brice Stadium capacity 78k, student section 13k.
Im thinking South Carolina isnt going to be able to replicate the environment of Kyle Field.
lol, you do realize that when you play at home the crowd is quiet on offense to help you make plays and concentrate?why would Kyle field be loud when A&M has the ball? this comment makes literally 0 sense.
I'm an SC fan and I think it'll be a fun one regardless between two powerhouse defenses, but your comment is literally pointless.
No chance but they’re a good team and it will a good environment. We’ll have to bring our A game, if we do that, we’ll win, if not it will be very tough
@prince.davvvid the goal is to be loud when the away team's offense is on the field to interfere with their communication and cadence.
In the LSU v A&M game that Josh referenced LSU had 3 false start penalties and a ball snapped on a field goal attempt when the holder wasn't looking.
The A&M home crowd had a measurable impact on LSU's offense. In my opinion South Carolina isnt going to be able to replicate that (like Josh said they would try to) because of the significantly smaller student section and Stadium.
I agree, it's gonna be an amazing game and I'm looking forward to it. Best of luck to you and your team.
@@FightingTexasAggie oh I see, I read your comment in the wrong sense haha
Never been to Autzen have you? Louder than stadiums with 40% higher capacity’s. 129 decibels against the Buckeyes. I wouldn’t make a prediction based on capacity
This “Mormon” from Arkansas, and BYU fan, appreciates the Mormon override 😂😂 and the Razorbacks at #25
The Notredame hate is crazy.
I don’t think Josh has watched us since NIU and I don’t really blame him
@ndfitz3721 i haven't watched you since the blowout loss to bama in the 2013 championship game because you didn't deserve to be there then and you don't deserve to be in talks of a title game now. That's all
@@patrickmcisaac3142 good thing no one cares what you think dipshit
@@patrickmcisaac3142how did they not deserve to be there when they beat the Big12 and Pac10 champs and were undefeated? Totally delusional take
@@kevinpulliam3661 join the ACC in football. Give up the decades long temper tantrum. That identity has dried out. The sport is changing.
This dude really does hate notre dame lmao. 😂
Bc they suck.
@jasonarreguin5315 you suck jason. You suck.
Bruh a 9-3 SEC team that doesn’t play in the SEC championship is not going to the playoffs, come on now.
I’ve been loving watching JP but this was the first episode I’ve seen where I felt like he was just not making any sense
10-2 is pushin it lol this man on shrooms if he think a 9-3 LSU who can't even beat the worst team in Big10 is going to playoff
Top 3 hardest November schedules for ranked teams:
1. Pittsburgh
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
Top 3 easiest November schedules for ranked teams:
1. Washington State
2. Tennessee
3. Colorado
pitt plays clemson that’s it. not that difficult
Did you forget about Miami??
@@justinsarvela1102 Miami’s compiled opponent record is 20-12. that’s less than the top 3.
You do know Tennessee plays Georgia, right? Also, Vanderbilt. (Yes, I also can't believe I'm saying that.)
@@coastingalongThey play @SMU on Saturday
I’d be interested to see the point spread between Arkansas and Florida
I'd be interested to know who cares about those teams?
@@johnc1256hey now WPS n yes hoops starts Monday n the hogs are over 500 in football so yes we care one of these days hogs gonn be in playoffs just takes the right donor w the right money WPS!
Arkansas by 1.5 over under being 54
I don't care about any ACC teams, but Pitt not being top 30 in your opinion?? Really pate?
Aren't they an 8 pt underdog this week to SMU? The rating seems pretty accurate.. this is predicting who would be favored .. but being favored doesn't mean your better... Just determines where the money is going. BYU continues to destroy Vegas.
@dakings1214 that's dependent on Holstein playing
Lmao.. He said the same thing last week and picked LSU. LSU Defense is stout and O-line will win up front… SC defense is also good, but has a terrible OL… Great pick Josh ✌🏼
The flaw with the “model” is that it shouldn’t be relying so much on the previous year, this far in to the current year. If it was purely based on this year, you can’t present me a valid argument Texas is #5 and A&M is #12. Strength of record is not even close
Strength of record has nothing to do with it and last year doesn't either
Penn State and Ohio State were both not off a bye. Penn State played Wisconsin, Ohio State played Nebraska.
I believe that this is going to be the year Penn st wins been many years ago since they one and I couldn't believe Aurburn was favored over vandy 😂😅😂😅❤
Can someone explain to me how the number 1 team in the SEC is ranked below Texas, Tennessee, and Ole Miss?
We lost to ND, an out of conference opponent.
It has nothing to do with ND. ESPN has a $300M investment in texas ($1B in Penn State). They’re the pretty boys and when they’re ranked high, ppl with conflicts of interest make big bucks from them! They’re always the pretty boys in the world of marketing.
PPL also love to hate A&M and many are still hungover from the Jimbo Fisher days. He did the Ags a lot of damage. Right now, texas is a wiser and more profitable business decision this year. 😡
Bias
@@Hey_OverHerewrong. It’s not a conspiracy theory. They have to be behind ND for now because the loss. ND hasn’t done enough to jump Texas, Tennessee, or Georgia. It’s simple.
They’re not ranked anywhere. They’re RATED lower. Anyone talking about ESPN bias needs to check Josh Pate’s media affiliation.
Hmm I feel some a$m hate 🤔 Reed has looked unstoppable, sc gets sacked alot and against our defense line oof. Yall keep doubting the aggies. Motivation 🎶
Pretty sure nobody reads this while you're waxing eloquent. I was in college in Eugene, OR and it was summertime and the town had emptied out. I forget what was keeping me in town but EVERYONE had left. It was some kind of summertime "holiday" or just that point where nobody goes to a day job. The imitation crab in the refrigerator smelled funny but I made an omelet anyhow. Four hours later I was HALLUCINATING as I p*ked. I remember EVERYTHING about the next four hours and it's pretty much an amazing conversation with God. A MAZ ING. I am NOT going to recommend food poisoning as transcendence but forty years later it carries some weight.
Ok so Florida wins out? That means they beat GA,TX,OlMiss,LSU…..3 losses yes. How do they get left out? PURE CHAOS.
Pitt is straight up amazing. Stop the Pitt hate.
No. It's all about the U
@@DarkCode The U is all about the refs.
Pitt sux miami or clemson would roll them much less 8 sec teams could beat them
@@Shawn-gr8yjSEC is ass this yr
@Necile2 keep crying
As an A&M fan, Josh absolutely LOVE you for this ❤
Im convinced he’s picking against us to keep our win streak going at this point
@@ryanarenz😂. I bet you’re right!
No 11-1 power 4 Team is getting left out of a 12 team playoff!!!
Putting the word"Power"in from of any conference but the SEC and Big 10 is a misnomer.
Miami will finish the season w/o playing a currently ranked team SoS is
BYU has current No. 17 Kansas State
Iowa has Kansas State coming
Kansas State has Iowa State
One of those will go.... 2 is a stretch.
I've been predicting:
5 SEC
4 Big Ten
2 ACC/Big 12
1 ACC/Big 12
1 G5
The key teams:
SEC- Texas, Georgia, TAMU, Tennessee, Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss
Big 12- BYU, Iowa State, Kansas State
ACC- Miami (FL), Clemson
Big 10- Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, Indiana
Independent- Notre Dame
G5:
AAC- Army, Navy, Tulane, Memphis
MWC- Boise State, UNLV
SBC- Louisiana
I like how he says if Indiana goes 11-1 there’s a chance they could not go to the playoffs but if Iowa State went 11-1 he’d fight tooth and nail for them to be in
He's a SEC HOMER POLITICKING DNT TAKE HIS TAKES SERIOUS
I don't understand your poll. Ole Miss loses to a very bad UK at home, Alabama loses to UT and beats a very bad Mizzou team, but both are above UT who lost to top 25 Arky and UT is above In conference undefeated Team?
Also, Clemson has beat no one... still
In case your wondering about the Big Ten scenario. It would go to the 5th tiebreaker which is the rating that SportsSource Analytics (whoever the hell that is) gives them. If they tie that, it’s a random drawing by the commissioner
As a penn state fan i feel bad for indiana because there is now way he wouldn't "randomly pick" the rematch of the 1994 rose bowl
As a penn state fan i feel bad for indiana because there is now way he wouldn't "randomly pick" the rematch of the 1994 rose bowl
How the blue oats is Mizzu in the top 25
Missouri one of biggest disappointments of season
NEEDED PROP UP "RANKED" WINS FOR OTHER SEC TEAMS. AP POLL PONZI SCHEME
Got a massive match up between Georgia and Tennessee coming up in 2 weeks. Can’t wait to go there on my birthday. Can the Vols pull off the best win of the season?
Well as long as FL can keep it close is all I'm looking for as long as ga doesn't win by 16.5 I'm good
The Heisman votes should be tied to the strength of record for their respective team but at the same time giving a player on a bad team credence because of their importance to their team. At some point, you also have to include the "eye" test.
How do you determine who's in the running? 130 something teams with at least 22 players that theoretically could win. Is it mostly politics or does this award find the true best player every year?
I think they do a decent enough job, there are so many positions and so many teams that the “perfect” candidate is totally subjective.
But even with that I haven’t seen a pick that was clearly incorrect, an a good argument could be made for the top pick every year even if you disagree with it
That's how Jayden Daniel's won it last year. I truly think Ashton Jeanty deserves it if he continues his campaign the way he has.
I still contest that Payton Mannings mvp year should be the year he was out with a neck injury and the team went 2-14 because they made the playoffs in the year before and the year after...
How does that not PROVE that you're the most valuable player on your team?
Michigan has played Texas, Washington & Illinois. They play Indiana, Oregon and OSU. Pretty good strength of schedule. But no way do they make the play off. Strength of schedule doesn't always mean you are a top team. A one loss Indiana or a three loss LSU? Hard to explain picking LSU.
One loss IU should be in over any 3 loss SEC team. Just pure SEC bias to say otherwise
I’d take 2 loss LSU over 1 loss IU 3 losses I would not.
Josh pronounces “BYU” normally to me I don’t hear any issues with how he says the “Y”
Always thought that too. But Brigham Young is fun to hear him say every time
44:10 This is actually a textbook example of a gambler’s fallacy. A coin landing on heads 10 times in a row doesn’t change the odds that it lands on tails the next flip. I know the model is a bit different due to recalibrations but it still sets the spread at the best point where it could go either way
If you ever took a college statistics class, it actually does. There’s an equation for it.
@@user-tz2zz5ij1sI thought that formula applied to (and ultimately discredited) the hot hand fallacy. I remember them using it when looking at Klay Thompson’s shooting streaking and mathematically confirming hot streaks in sports exist. But I don’t know if something like that is applicable to a team based result that is continually reset on arbitrary lines.
@@rjjumpman12you are incorrect. Your attempt at google surface knowledge did not come through for you this time.
@@user-tz2zz5ij1sI took several statistics courses too… If I made a mistake I’m fine with that, but your tone makes you seem like a pompous jerk with no social skills. There’s no reason to not fully articulate the reasoning behind your argument if you properly understand the material you’re talking about. I would be happy to learn more but no one is happy being insulted.
The lack of discussing SMU-Pitt even though it is one of only 2 ranked match-ups this week (don’t care that Pitt isn’t power rates high) is a shame to the sport. Arguably the 2nd best game of the day but nope gotta talk about sec games instead
Great show as always from Alabama
The thing w Gabriel vs Ward is I think Oregon would still be undefeated with 1/2 of the p5 qbs, Miami would not…Ward is an impact difference making qb
I wish Pate would take his kind words about A&M and just stop speaking them. He’s not high on this team or Elko. He doesn’t believe in his philosophy. Fun fact Pate, actions speak louder than words. And you’ve bet against A&M multiple times this year. So make sure to keep that same tone on November 30th, please. No hard feelings
He said we would compete for nattys under Elko two days ago. He is down on this team tho.
Why do yall take this stuff so personally?
I get what you mean but it’s hard from his perspective to bet on this team consistently when we rank so poorly nationally in pass offense and defense. A&M and Elko’s best traits this year are intangible and models just can’t calculate for those.
I really believe he’s that high on A&M after this year, but he’s not confident in this team’s ability to sustain dominance without dominating across the board statistically. I personally think every game is entirely up for grabs and I trust Elko to put them team in the best position to win. Regardless of final record I’m behind this team and I’m glad I can know that they got everything out of this group possible.
Weird how the model had #10 Bama as a 10 point favorite over #25 Arky but #12 TAMU was only a 1 point favorite over #26 SCAR (assuming 3 point home swing). Something seems off there.
Pate and Klatt are the CFB authority, boys. I got Ohio St -3.5. I think they win 31-20
I know this won’t actually happen, BUT…
In a hypothetical world where Hunter and Jeanty both complete their respective record shattering seasons, why shouldn’t we be able to have 2 heisman winners in a year to recognize their respective greatness? (And we’ll all sing kumbaya)
Because that would make a mockery of the award
Pretty sure the voters would have to collude to get that to happen. Its a ranked choice voting system so a tie probably could happen I guess but I think that would be very unlikely.
Man, Memaw really knows her college football!
Zevia is a fantastic choice! Love that stuff
Thank goodness you picked sc over A&M. thank you!
GBO🧡
FWIW the ESPN Playoff Predictor has 11-1 Indiana with a loss to OSU at 96% to make the playoff.
Also, 9-3 LSU with a loss to Florida at 35% so that take definitely wasn’t crazy.
I can’t believe you didn’t talk much about that 360 Tez catch. Lowkey top 10 material nuh nuh nuh-nuh nuh nuh
Bold move asking for subscribers during the JP poll segment while angering half of the country 😂
Its not that OSU can't run the ball - their yds per is 5.7 - they just don't run the ball that much when they have the best WR room in the country.
That stat is tainted by 9.05 yards per carry out of conference.
@@danielargo7221 actually in 4 big 10 games, henderson has 38 carries for 242, judkins 45 for 184. that's 83 rushes, 426 yds, that's 5.13/carry for the 2 main runners in league play.
@jamesmarkscott6202 team average out of conference over 9 yards per carry, team average in conference 4.26. Justify all you want. 4.26 isn't bad. It's just not up to OSU expectations.
The Michigan Wolverines are the best team in the country. They just won a Big Ten rivalry game with 0 turnovers and 0 penalties. That is harder to do than pitching a no hitter in baseball.
I agree with the logic of 9-3 LSU making the playoffs but we all know how unpredictable the college football committees are and I feel like they will value conference championship losers higher than most and if that’s the case there’s really only 3 maybe 4 at large spots
They want let me bet because of the state I live in
Jp poll just shows healthy alabama at their ceiling is the beat team in the nation
Then the poll is trash bama lost to vandy n got lucky georgia didn't show up til half smh bama isn't even in the top of qtr of sec much less nation
@Shawn-gr8yj just say you don't know ball and be done with it🤣
Ole Miss would not be favored against ND right now. Penn State would be
And I don't know WHY Penn State would be favored over ND on a neutral field.
Calgary is watching
Cade will be active on Championship Saturday 👀 If he keeps taking care of the ball and Clemson keeps rolling on O, might be lookin at the Heisman that makes everybody mad 😂 Go Tigers 🐅 P.s Travis should be a lock if Jeanty doesn’t win it
It's ALL ABOUT THE U! 🙌
You are what your record says you are crowd arrives late because that’s when your record matters. What’s the point of saying it in week 2?
You have to see teams play games.
Ryan Day definitely has the most pressure. Does Ohio State have a quality win compared to everyone else? They lost to the best team they played. If they lose to Penn State, it might be over for them.
Seriously JP? Oregon #2? Bring on the Dawgs. Nobody is beating Oregon this year. Best and most complete team I have seen in several years.
Lmao then u didn't pay attention lsu w burrow bama w hurts and Tua and georgia 2 Years ago would blow this oregon team out ! Even if the game were in that awful state
@@Shawn-gr8yjLSU team barely beat Texas. The ran through a trash SEC
I've never like the idea a QB getting the Hassman trophy. Always believe a runner back should get it and their should be a reward for the QB Position. I believe they have an for award best defense player
Go Dawgs! Sic Em!
Re the Hoosiers convincing wins matter too. Best point differential in the sport right now. A close loss to Ohio State on the road with convincing wins over MSU/Michigan/Purdue and the 11-1 Hoosiers are in.
Can't wait for JP to eat his words regarding his S. Car. pick. He always talks like he loves A&M but always picks against them.
Love Zevia, my favorite is the cream root beer and ginger root bear. Grape is pretty good too. I do not like the Cola though
I’ll have to respectfully disagree with your LSU 9-3 take.
If we are sitting here splitting hairs over the 12th and 13th teams and LSU is there at 9-3 in consideration with a couple 10-2 teams or an 11-1 Indiana team, you have to go with the record / fewer losses. At some point Ws and Ls matter.
Bama can run the ball. They are just absolutely refusing to hand the ball off. Half of the runs are QB runs that teams have figured out since Georgia started crashing the safety in the 2nd half
New all time fastest immunity record 🔥 9 seconds
Surprised you didn’t mention the Pitt SMU game
I think Florida should be around 20-22 on the model. Think talent is still giving them a little more than what they need minused for the general ineptitude of the program
Divide College Football into 4 divisions of 64 teams. FBS 1,2,3,4. Each division has 4 conferences/regions of 16 teams. Each team plays 8 conference games. The “playoffs” start with each of the 4 regions in the bracket seeded based on conference standings. The “final four” is the conference champion from each region. The bottom 4 teams are relegated to the lower division, the top 4 conference winners are promoted to the upper division.
Let’s stop messing around with whatever this is we’ve created and do it right.
Top seed has home field advantage until final four where it’s played at bowls.
So Miami blows out #17 at the Swamp, beats #23 Vtech. But somehow Clemson has “better wins” ? 🧐
He can't even see the bs. Or he can and hope we're stupid
@@knothyselfknotruth insane
I hate big noon kickoff
Don't drink the water in Jax. Bring lots of bottled water and hopefully you avoid a repeat of last year
i dont think nobody can pick the 12 playoff teams ,this week, not even nick saban
Especially not after he picked FSU to win the ACC.
“I don’t have an SEC bias.”
“11-1 Indiana might not make the playoffs…and we might get 5-6 SEC teams.” SMH
I have cannot understand why JP has such a thing for A and M. Stop the hate, already.
I need one of those pate state hats! Can't find them in the store!
Currently sipping vanilla cola zevia. Its my go-to sugar free drink
If OSU can block Penn State, they’ll win. If not PSU will terrorize the OSU offense for a low scoring PSU Win.
Can you clarify Josh, did I understand you correctly that South Carolina is in the JP top 30?
Man the LSU take is stupid. You are telling me that just playing and loosing to top 35 teams is good enough? If we entertain this logic that "LSU played 7 top 40 teams", well as of now they are -19 in point diff vs ranked teams. So let's say they blow out Oklahoma and win small against Florida and Vandy, but loose close to Alabama. Does that mean they are in? Are we really looking at "point differentials" now? Saying that playing good teams close but loosing leads to a better strength of schedule than winning dominantly over "lower ranked" teams is lunacy.
TL;DR - Strength of schedule comparisons must not be done when there is a significant gap in team records.
first immunity 0:09
The problem with either result is that PS just isn’t that good. Of course, OSU isn’t necessarily blowing anyone’s hair back either.
If Clemson runs the table and Texas wins out, Georgia will get in with 3 losses as they would have the best two wins in college football and neither were home games and one a true road game.