Excellent analysis - very insightful and well-reasoned. Honestly, I welcome the bust to drive the flippers, opportunists, and speculators out of the market! It can’t come soon enough!!
I couldn't agree more, I look forward to the day when all the stores that have bottles at 5 and 6 times retail are Stu k with products nobody wants or are willing to pay for.
I hope we do not have a full bust, because that could lead to another bourbon dark age period. I am hoping we experience a slow cooling of the market until the market adjusts and all those who are involved for other reasons than the desire to drink the whiskey are driven out of the market.
I feel like a good chunk of the bourbon boom happened because bourbon and whiskey as a whole became somewhat of a commodity. It became less about a drinking experience and more of a status symbol. Maybe that’ll turn around soon
Happy Bourbon Month! 3 years ago, I was collecting because I needed something to do. Now, I know what I like and I can comfortably pass on allocated stuff and sleep at night. I have found that the best bourbon is the one that's in your glass as you share it with friends and family.
Had a lot of fomo on rare bottles until found the joy of store picks. Getting really good pours for not outrageous prices or lines changed my attitude about playing the allocated hunger games. Store picks for the win
It’s busting. I’ve completely diminished my lust for the find. I don’t visit stores as much in search for allocated stuff and my interests has waned. That’s just me.
I am definitely seeing more and more bottles on the shelves that were fairly hard to get just a year or two ago. Buffalo Trace's mid-priced stuff is still nowhere to be found though.
Very anecdotal, but I’ve been seeing historically popular allocated bottles sitting on the shelves at MULTIPLE stores around me. In my circle, a few of us have pulled back because we just have so much and we’ll never make it through what we have. We’re considering doing more bottle sharing instead of each of us buying all the same bottles.
So you left out one major item. Barrel picks by UA-cam bourbon channels, their excellent pallets, and their patron platform. I’m a patreon of 4 different channels, spend a total of $60 a month for that, and get 2-5 single barrel barrel picks a month delivered to my house at MSRP. These $50-100 bottles of delicious picks beat out a 250$ ETL everyday
True… those who only buy to make profit are tainting the consumer market. 9:05 Also take into account the fact that most Americans are experiencing a severe decline in the buying power of their income. It’s called inflation!
There are a lot of indications of an overall economy slowdown, so naturally the secondary bourbon market wouldn't escape it either after such a huge run up. Fed raised rates very fast and there's always a lag to when it whacks businesses and it's starting to be felt. The high end stuff will come down (paying $1000+ for GTS or pappy was always insane), but stuff like Eagle Rare or EH Taylor in the $30-40s will still disappear off shelves super fast
@@BourbonRealTalk Peak bourbon happened in Q4 of 2022. It's a very slow spiral down, and we won't see damage until 2029/2030 when an incredible amount of additional aged capacity becomes available.
For the majority of Bourbon drinkers,anything over 150 dollars is ridiculous. It's just another alcoholic beverage to relax and enjoy. One point that I would like to make, is that the market is over saturated with too many choices. There are bottles that sit forever on the shelves. I have no idea what stores do with them if they can't sell them. It's up to the Bourbon drinkers themselves to resist over paying for bottles in order to bring prices down. Also,stop elevating allocated Bourbons to cult status,thereby making everyone start lusting after them!
I do not fault the excited new person, or a wealthy person with more disposable income than me, deciding to pursue a "rare" bottle. I think the public are slowly realizing they hype is not warranted, and I think things will slowly adjust to something more normal in the market.
JFC. I went back to Kentucky last week and even there Buffalo Trace was allocate. That's BS. It's a $33 bottle, and historically it was available EVERYWHERE. It's good, but it's just a smidge above Jim Beam. It's competing with 1792 and Woodford, and there is PLENTY of those available. I like BT and the rest of the BT line, but the prices and scarcity are completely manufactured. I hope all the 2nd market traders who were in it to make a buck and not enjoy the whisky go broke being unable to resell at profit. Can't wait for the bourbon bust. In the meantime, there's still great Kentucky bourbon available for reasonable prices.
Manufactured scarcity is a common theory that is thrown around. Can you explain to me what business actions BT has engaged in to create this scarcity, and how you came to possess this information? I ask because BT only has 3 bourbon mashbills, many brands to produce for with those 3 mashbills, and nearly all of their SKUs are in high demand. It is totally illogical to me when someone claims they have more whiskey to sell and theorizes that they are holding it back to create a fake shortage.
When people want a certain product, but can't find it, they either settle for something less, or totally different. The hoarders or resellers are ruining things, because people just won't pay those insane prices after awhile. It's just not worth it. It also has the ability to turn people off to bourbon altogether.
That is exactly why I have been vocal about being against flippers who are running a bootleg liquor store for profit. They are just messing up the market.
It would be nice to see a return to historic mash bills and the death of crap like 95-5 bills Also most “craft” is unimaginative crap and produced by mgp when the down fall comes you’ll know because mgps customers are going to be taking it on the chin
As the cofounder of The Prideful Goat I hope our commitment to disclosure, releasing things at cask strength NCF, and our attention to being a relative value to the other NDPs keeps us strong, but I get your point.
I can only speak just for myself, but my Bourbon buying has dropped dramatically 1) I am just tired of chasing allocated Bourbons, whats the point? Now I just buy the ones I like 2) Inflation, everything is expensive and I dont have as much disposable income to buy expensive bottles 3) How much can 1 person drink 4) Bourbon hoarders are starting to be mocked and shamed in a lot of the groups I belong to, and its not as cool to have tons of allocated bottles sitting in your basement, no one is impressed with it 5) I think people no longer care if they miss out, the lesson we have learned is that there is always another bottle coming next month, next year. 6) I think smaller, less know Bourbons are more fun to buy and try than chasing the big names 7) I am expanding into other liquors like Tequila and Rum and enjoying a bigger variety. So YES I do think there is a Bourbon Bust and I think is going to get worse.
The bourbon craze is dead.. 2024 and I see allocated stuff gathering dust on the shelves.. prices are still high though.. could be the inflation more than the demand. Market conditions seem to indicate that bourbon, rum, vodka and such that is 80+ dollars are going to have a harder time finding a buyer,. Growth will be in the sub 50$ market.. and that is distillers territtory and the MGP or sourced stuff that is typicaly overpriced will be tiny. long story short.. distillers are already cutting down production and instead consolidating.
Bourbon is a lot like the collector markets. They have all cooled down now. Consumers are getting pinched right now and THINGS whch at the end of the day is a what bourbon is cool down. People are still buying. But they might be buying that really good sub $50 bottle rahter than splurging on a secondary bottle or that $100 bottle.
When the market crashed back in the 70-80's the distilleries had a crap ton of whiskey they couldn't sell, so they left in the barrels for several more years, changed the names and pimped it as a premium brand and here we are. I remember the crash all the yuppies started driving BMW's and MB's and drank French and or German wines and loved to talk about which ones were better. Now that bourbon has been rolling for several years you have the same yuppies only older now trying to impress everyone by the vast knowledge of bourbon. Give me Jim Beam White label and can of coke zero and a glass of ice. All these posers talking about how to grade bourbon, please. Now the people making these videos might know what they're talking about, but the average person just repeats what they hear from these videos to impress their friends.
I make the videos and I am the first to admit that we are all kind of full of crap. People should taste for themselves and then drink what they like. There is a social benefit that we lose if the "posers" stop talking to others about bourbon, and I would not want that to happen. Whiskey does bring people together, but to your point, even the cheap stuff is pretty good.
It's all cyclical...if there's a bust and prices drop, people will buy more and eventually supply will decrease and won't match the demand and prices will increase again.
I will not pay more than $60 for a bottle of bourbon. I am at the point where I know what I like and I am not convinced spending more per bottle is worth it.
I think we are in a correction period for all markets, including bourbon. I wouldn't say that the boom is over, because I am seeing more people at the store than ever. But I do think that people have come around to other brands that don't have a huge markup and realize that there isn't any real reason to pay secondary for bottles.
Very interesting analysis. I think we definitely are giving back some gains, but also pricing/gouging has really hurt demand. I know I have pulled back a lot due to the insane prices on bottles, even the lower-end 'allocated' items like ECBP being sold around 100+ constantly.
If everyone approaches it like this, eventually the price gouging with stop working for the stores and the prices will come back down. I fear that for the most highly sought after bottles that is years away.
I still think we are years away from things like Weller Antique being back on shelves, but there are plenty of signs that the bourbon market is cooling down.
I think that there are just so many more bourbon drinkers that have at least gotten to TRY the allocated/ unicorn stuff now...a little bit of " been there done that" at this point
There is some validity here. I got into bourbon because craft beer just got too expensive. I can have a couple ounces of bourbon for a nightcap and I'm good after that. I'm not a big drinker, so got my 10 or so bottles and I'm good. Don't have to worry about expiration either.
I think that is some good insight. The other factor I think we are going to quickly see in the next yr plus is a failing economy. As disposable income shrinks we will see a fall in higher priced whiskey. May take a few yrs to fall to reasonable levels, but once you see secondary turn, expect primary retail to follow
Howdy Randy! Nice review…bet your read is accurate! Way I look at it…if you don’t pay over MSRP then it don’t matter anyway! Buy what ya like when and where and enjoy! 🤠🇺🇸🇨🇱🥃
Great information Randy, Here is Arizona I can tell you the interest in whiskey has to be at an all time high along with prices in retail and secondary. Hopefully some of these prices including non allocated items will decrease at some point.
I am thinking inflation will continue to have it's impact, but maybe secondary prices may be lower, which should also affect price gouge stores too...eventually.
There's a lot of market saturation, and people are (somewhat) less inclined to spend on allocated bottles, which I think has slowed the secondary market a bit. The same thing happened in beer. Major market saturation and it's dipped in the last few years and weeded out a lot of smaller or inferior breweries. There are still LOTS of people drinking beer and the industry as a whole is doing fine, just a little less than when a brewery could open next door to another and they were both packed every night of the week. There were a lot of acquisitions that consolidated the market share, but that was more due to competition and bigger breweries losing a lot of money to craft beer during the craft boom and not necessarily the result of breweries falling down due to lack of interest in beer. I'm thinking the bourbon and whiskey industry are doing just fine. I can't find most allocated bottles outside of raffles (in Colorado) and see new distilleries still popping up often with demand for products that aren't even distilled in house.
I think the point about consumer habits changing from fomo is huge. I get asked for buffalo trace very often (we get maybe a case a month at most, sells out in a couple minutes) and they are always confused about why it isnt there and im often like "well you just asked me for it didnt you? Thats the reason". Many people dont think about other peoples market impact, they focus on their own experience. You can often see a change in demeanor once they understand that if we get 3 cases of buffalo trace thatll go in 20 minutes, where if we get 3 cases of elijah craig for example, no matter the price, that takes a good 2 weeks to leave the store. I think some people are starting to realize that that competition might just not be worth it.
I hope a downturn in the market comes soon. The headache of trying to get a decent bottle has been a joke. Went into a store today, they had 4 bottles of Stagg behind the counter. $500 EACH!!!!!
@@jameslane9267 There are private facebook groups we refer to as the "secondary market". These bottles generally trade for 220-250. I can't add you to any since I had to leave them all due to my involvement in the industry. Make some whiskey friends on facebook and you will eventually find someone who can point you in the right direction.
@@BourbonRealTalk oh no, I think domestic demand will double by the time the distillery expansions start putting out stuff in 5-7 years. Bourbon will still be on fire. Just my guess.
I’ve definitely notice way more bourbon in stores. Even some prices have lowered and the economy sucks. Who wants to pay absorbent prices for this stuff. It got so out of control.
Another really compelling discussion ... keep doing these. Yesterday I walked into my favorite local store and found a 1792 BiB store pick, so I happily grabbed one and went to the register. The store owner told me that some guy had walked in and bought three cases of the stuff. I asked him if he thought the guy was going to start reselling them and he just rolled his eyes. The stupid part is that this made me buy two instead of one 🙄
bourbon is getting boring, everything that's decent is so out of touch with the average consumer in price and availability. I️ don't feel like dedicating my entire life to get a decent bottle of bourbon. It's just a hobby of financially well off alcoholics that can spend the money or a bunch of alcoholics that have friends that know someone. I️ don't have time nor the money to spend tons to get a moderately decent tasting bottle.
@@DBTdad No, I figured you were talking about Sazerac. Since "manufactured scarcity" means they have more product for market, but they pretend they don't so they can make people think it is rare when it is not, I wanted to know what actions you believe Sazerac has taken to "manufacture scarcity". This is a common rumor that they manufacture scarcity, but I have never had anyone be able to point to any behavior on their part that could lead to fake scarcity. I do find that when I questions someone about this they resort to saying things like "what are naive?" instead of telling me, I know someone who works at BT in the barrel warehouse, and there is a lot of whiskey being left in storage that could be bottled...or something else that would actually point to manufactured scarcity.
@@singram1978 I understand the business logic behind why a company would want to manufacture scarcity, I am asking you what actual actions you believe they have taken to make it happen, and where you got the information to substantiate the claim.
Haven't really seen prices on national secondary coming down at all. And anything Buffalo Trace takes about 30 seconds to leave the store once it hits the shelf. Craft distilling is still booming, especially for something that takes at least two years to be drinkable.
I don't follow the secondary very closely, but Dec 2021 ER17 was $1900 and the last time I looked it was down to $1,450. I have heard other similar price drops.
The "Premiumization" of whiskey to end the Dark Ages followed the old adage: "If it isn't selling, raise the price!" and it totally worked. I hope we are over the peak of speculation and flipper behavior - there are things that I just want to buy to drink that aren't even that expensive or rare or crazy to begin with that I can't find at all or only find for a 1,000% mark-up.
I think eventually the market will fix itself, but given the time it takes to make more of the things that are rare, I still think we are years away from that.
All good points. Another point is that people are just cutting back generally. I also agree with 'bourbon fatigue' in that people just aren't chasing the unicorns anymore and are drinking the very good choices on the shelf. I've stopped looking for them and if they fall in my lap, fine. Otherwise, there are a ton of great choices available.
I'm with you here. I've only been at it a year or so (converted craft beer drinker) and am already turning towards solid drinkers in the $20-40 range and store picks under $50. My palate just isn't sophisticated enough and I often find I like the lower priced "go-tos" more than the $75 plus premiums anyways.
great video, thanks. I personally stopped buying bourbon a few months ago, because I have more than 25 bourbons (and multiple bottles for a couple of my favorites) and I just don't need that much. (I have one drink a night). I decided to stop buying for a while. But before that, I DID notice the market change. For example, for a while, you could not find Buffalo Trace anywhere near where I live. When I did find it, it went for $35-70. Recently I bought a bottle for $28, and it seems to be in all the stores now. Other scarce products have been showing up. But I also noticed many of the non-allocated bourbons that I like going up significantly in price (for example, knob 9). I also stopped watching bourbon videos. I have to say I have missed you! Always love the positive message!
We've all witnessed the boom-bust cycle. The three factors controlling prices on a free market are supply, demand and competition. One other outlying factor is an experienced and educated consumer. All four of these are currently working to drive down the price of whiskey. On the supply side, it's evident the producers are continuing to increase production. There's also a significant number of startup brands entering the market. Some are overpriced, some are not. On the demand side, there are people out there buying these expensive bottles, but I would expect them to be a low percentage compared to the everyday whiskey consumers who can't afford secondary prices. I would have to believe the majority of whiskey consumers are in the same boat. There's only so much disposable income to spend on a "luxury" item. We're also experiencing inflationary pressure on necessary goods like gas, food, rent and higher interest rates, which limits buying power for real estate and vehicles. These factors put downward pressure on the demand. The false demand created by the flippers, which priced many of the allocated products out of reach of the majority of consumers eventually will collapse because of this slowing demand. The "wallets" paying these exorbanate prices also will eventually stop buying them. One other factor is the competition. For example Blanton's is a good whiskey. It takes advantage of it's unique branding, but the true value of a consumable is based upon quality and taste. There are competitive and sometimes superior products out there now for significantly less money. Blanton's is not a good value at secondary prices. Honestly, I don't believe it's a good value at MSRP. An example of a good value whiskey is Rare Breed. It typically cost less and provides a superior quality and tasting experience. One other factor is the whiskey community is becoming experienced. The consumers who are new to the market tend to be susceptible to fads such as a horse on a bottle stopper. Ignorance results in a volatile market. Experienced consumers tend to look for value, which is great tasting whiskey at a reasonable price. The increase in experienced consumers also provide a stable market, which is why the producers are increasing production. They see the future demand as being strong, but with their customers demanding value. So when all is said and done, the bubble will burst and the whiskey consumers will benefit with quality options at good prices. UA-camrs like Randy are uniquely responsible for guiding the community to a more value based pricing system. Keep up the good work!!
I don’t have experience with secondary. I have seen way to many predatory stores here in MA. Just yesterday one store has a $229 STAGG, $129 Weller special, $179 EH Taylor small batch! A Rip Van Winkle that I didn’t even bother to ask about!!
Thanks for all the info. As a consumer I hope the bubble does burst. I know inflation is hitting but I'm almost priced out of being able to buy my WT101 and KC100. I mourn the days (less than 20 years ago) when I could pick up Weller Antique 107 for less than $25 per bottle.
It's good to know back in 94 when I graduated, Pappy Van Winkle released the 20 year old Bourbon!! I'm 48 now and just got into Bourbon about a year ago. 😄
Your point about FOMO is commonly referred to as "pantry loading' in consumer marketing. There is no doubt that is happening and once that begins to cool off, the market will seek equilibrium. Net, net is that the bourbon market will without a doubt cool off and I believe is beginning to happen now.
Will be interesting to see how similar/dissimilar the Bourbon market trend will be to Craft Beer's boom and recent downturn. Likely won't play out the same way given differences in products and market landscape, but I do think it's notable that FOMO also had a large role in Craft Beer's heyday with brewery only and limited releases. FOMO has almost entirely vanished from the beer scene...
The main difference is production time. If a craft brewery had a successful release, the other 5 craft breweries in the area could replicate the beer in a short period of time. In the case of bourbon, you would have to start today to release a similar product 8-25 years from now. I am not sure how that reality will play out, but I am sure it will be a factor.
Many of the speculators are going to get burned in the long run when the capacity increases goes online for Buffalo Trace and others. It's a shame that it will take 5-7 years. Oh well...tons of solid shelf available bourbons.
I feel bad for all the people who invested in barrel ventures. I have no idea how many investment groups were formed to produce 1,000 barrels and set on them for a few years, but when they all start to release their inventory to cash in on profits I think they will find too many people had the same idea.
As always good information from a reasoned, cogent viewpoint presented in a straight forward method. If the market is cooling off I hope for two outcomes, #1 a crash of the insanity of the secondary market and #2 the rise of availability from craft or smaller distillers. I will acknowledge the former when I see the bottle I can buy at my local state store for "X" dollars listed at that same price from a major online retailer and not "4X". The latter, well maybe when half the bottles I see that do disclose origin arent from Indiana. I agree that folks finding, enjoying and recommending whiskeys on the shelf 75-80% of the time that dont run you $80 or so is great news. Keep up the good work.
I’ve noticed price drops on secondary for quite a bit of skus and I think a big part is the “finance bros” can’t just throw thousands at bottles because they know more money will come in. Inventory is increasing and things are sitting longer causing that downward pressure you were talking about!
Your bar is an example of the great amount of inventory that is sitting on consumer shelves compared to before the bourbon boom. Looks like you have 1000 bottles back there. Twenty years ago I would venture a guess most bourbon drinkers had 2 to 5 bottles in their homes.
That is a solid point. It is hard to gage what true demand is when FOMO is causing people to buy far more than they would if everything was available on the shelf.
I am amazes at the new small distilleries all over the country, especially since the time needed to develop a good aged bourbon is years, and their is no guarantee your product is good enough to compete plus their prices are generally in the $55+ range. I have surely found tastings is the only way to avoid a bad purchase. Great show thanks!
It is difficult to imaging the total increase in production capacity that has occurred during the boom. There will definitely be some winners and losers.
Part of me is happy because then rare things might stay on the shelf long enough for me to get it, and maybe prices will come back down. But the craft beer industry tanking because younger drinkers want seltzers and crap like that hasn't worked out that way - there's just less selection. I know bourbon takes about 20 to 100 times longer to make than beer.
That is my fear when I hear whiskey enthusiasts say they want a crash. I don't think it would work out the way they imagine. Just a lot of people losing their jobs and brands going away.
Thank you for your insightful information. It’s a lot to try to take in. I’m not a professional in this field. But I know my personal finances. I’m a consumer not a collector or someone with a wall of bottles of bourbon. 😂😅👍
After not being able to find ECBP, last year I ended up with 3 of the regular releases, a barrel pick, and a bottle of ECTB. I hope you're right and things settle down. I've been drinking bourbon since the 80's and would like to be able to get some of the bottles I like, again
I'm still having difficulty finding allocated stuff here in KY, but I do start to see more "rare" whiskey on websites although still at higher prices than MSRP but not as high as secondary. I have certainly slowed down substantially on my FOMO as prices have become ridiculous for the juice it contains, mostly from NDPs and celebrity whiskey. Great video as always guys!
I have the same problem here in KY. Part of me thinks it is due to when people come down here to visit the bourbon trail, that they also go hunting for allocated bottles. Something along the lines of "Well, a lot of it is made here, therefore allocated bottles are easier to find" or something like that. I've been after a bottle of Antique 107, but when I do find it, it is ridiculously above msrp. Oh well, plenty of other good, easier to find bourbon out there to drink.
I agree. To note a few I have recently enjoyed. Rittenhouse Private Select 100 proof, Tumblin Dice High-Rye store pick 117 proof. Yellowstone pick at 115.
Great review. I think there is a ton of better juice available, more store picks, and more allocated bourbons on the shelf that may be causing secondary market issues. A year or two ago, I would have paid a lot more for rare bourbons than I would today.
most def close to over. I've been through a lot of collector items booms and busts. The sheer income level of most of the bourbon fans around me will keep a true bust from happening....but these folks may also lose interest when they get a good enough palette to realize stuff like eagle rare, buff trace, EHTsmall B, WSR, etc are actually not good. But the real question is, will they ever figure this out? Lets take craft beer. The supply of quality craft breweries took all the lure out of it and you can now go less than 15 miles and hit a world class brewery. Now, I think the whiskey market is here to stay, but I think people will buy secondary bottles less and less as more quality stuff becomes available. Also, with ABC starting to feel pressure to stop allowing managers keep all their allocated stuff, all signs point to a steady decline in price for the next couple years at least.....and that's already showing BIGTIME in the secondary groups. I mean, prices tripled in about a 4 year span recently, can't last forever.
I tend to agree, accept I don't think it is fair to say "eagle rare, buff trace, EHTsmall B, WSR, etc are actually not good". I would say they are not worth the hype, but I think they produce an adequate drinking experience.
The companies, Sazerac in particular, thought it was funny to have their distributors sell massive amounts to liquor stores that plussed up prices on the rare stuff. That was so funny to them they had stores fully stocked who were doing 80 for Eagle Rare and 120 for Blantons. For 40 dollar bottles. And cut off liquor stores who were honest in their pricing I hope they choke on it.
It is illegal for Sazerac to refuse to sell to retailers who mark their prices up, and it is illegal for Sazerac to attempt to influence the prices a liquor store charges, so I do not think the scenario you laid out could be accurate.
Folks can barely afford to buy their groceries and fill up at the gas station. Yep, this is full-on 'bourbon bust' as the global economic-ometer is screaming 'terrain terrain! Pull up pull up!'. Sadly we've lost both wings and the pilots had a brain freeze, so over priced secondary is approximately the 5 millionth priority for most right now
Another counter point…Is people are drinking the bottles…so truly limited bottles will hold better Also nostalgia of the past, a bottle shared at a wedding or special event will have a desirability in the future And…While the secondary is softer, even producers/retailers are raising prices creating a higher bottom for the market. In fact, I suppose the retailers/producers benefit from the demand secondary has brought and realize it’s not in their interests to flood the market with too many new bottles even when production catches up in 5-7yrs or longer for older age statements of 10-15yrs But…agree…there is room for a drop and leveling of the market
I think producers like BT will produce as much whiskey as they can and release it all, with the expectation that they will take market share from other producers instead of devaluing their brands.
@@BourbonRealTalk agreed…but at the same time they have raised the floor on the market. Blantons at Walgreens in FL is now 70-80…ER close to 50 after tax, Hancock’s at total wine is now 100 plus tax… So yeah, I think they will sell as much as they can, but they are protecting the market by raising prices on demand which subsequently creates support for “some” secondary prices Great opinions…appreciate your coverage on the topic…thanks for sharing 🤙
Great capture and summary. Personally, the desire to chase faded within 6months, recent discussions and content towards best available and store picks along with the fact that I have found what I like and predominantly stick with it has reduced my spend by 80%. Additionally, once you hit 50-100 bottles it get more difficult to justify the spend. Keep it up with the great content and i have enjoyed JT Meleck. Wouldn’t have found it unless you had brought it forward.
Before covid19 my wife and I could walk in to a distillery and take a tour and tasting without reservations, then the reservations were months out. Now it seems the opening are getting more available, which says the boom is slowing.
based on the stock on shelf @ my routine outlet, I think the boom ended a few months ago - though still waiting on the allocated labels to be more available
I got started collecting wine and spirits in the 1990s. The first bourbon that I drank neat was Knob Creek, which was new at the time. I still like Knob Creek, and I came home with a bottle of the readily available 12-year yesterday. It was an interesting decade, not just for whisky, but for all kinds of booze. It seems like, across the board, quality had become a focus in a way that had never previously been the case. Craft beer was booming, and new wineries were popping up everywhere. Bourbon that went beyond the standard bottom shelf mixing stuff was finally becoming widely available, and single malt Scotch was starting to have its moment. It was a good time to get started on booze, because the selection was finally getting good, but hype hadn't gone through the roof yet. I have been wondering if FOMO burnout will ever become widespread. I'm starting to see some signs of resistance to FOMO. People are doing tasting comparisons of allocated whiskies vs. other things that are more readily available, and it isn't uncommon for those other things to perform well. I'm not willing to eat up my time and money chasing hyped-up industrial bourbon that isn't any better than other bottles out there, and I have no trouble finding excellent alternatives. Currently, I only have one allocated Buffalo Trace product in my collection, and I don't intend to acquire any others unless one randomly turns up somewhere for a price that is in line with its quality. If more people decide to resist FOMO and give other good whiskies a chance, demand will spread out more evenly through the market and secondary prices will come down. This wouldn't be a bust - it would be a healthy market correction. I've thought of an interesting metric, though it would be labor intensive and impractical to compile. The ongoing percentage of posts on the Bourbon Real Talk Facebook group (or any other bourbon group) related to allocated bottles would be interesting to track. If FOMO burnout ever happens, one would expect the percentage of posts related to allocated bottles to go down over time. Currently, allocated bottles seem to dominate the discussion there, so I don't think it is close to happening yet.
@@BourbonRealTalk Even then, it would be tough because a lot of the communication there is in the form of photographs, which would be impossible to automatically analyze without some very advanced (and expensive) software. It's definitely not practical, but significant changes over time are likely to be noticed on a qualitative level within the community.
That is a single barrel of Nulu. The club that picked it made special sticker and gave it away to all the members who bought a bottle. I is a play on words with Yoohoo.
Sorry. I would be faced with shutting down this free information platform along with the Facebook community that supports those struggling with mental health issues without merch sales and patreon support. I would lose over $60,000 a year providing the services we provide trying to pay for it with youtube view money. Not gonna do it.
Excellent analysis - very insightful and well-reasoned. Honestly, I welcome the bust to drive the flippers, opportunists, and speculators out of the market! It can’t come soon enough!!
I couldn't agree more, I look forward to the day when all the stores that have bottles at 5 and 6 times retail are Stu k with products nobody wants or are willing to pay for.
I hope we do not have a full bust, because that could lead to another bourbon dark age period. I am hoping we experience a slow cooling of the market until the market adjusts and all those who are involved for other reasons than the desire to drink the whiskey are driven out of the market.
I wish they could make a law in every state where they can’t raise the price up that much
Agreed
@luckyspag1346 why..the free market will compell those stores sitting on over priced stock to reduce prices in order to sell it.
I feel like a good chunk of the bourbon boom happened because bourbon and whiskey as a whole became somewhat of a commodity. It became less about a drinking experience and more of a status symbol. Maybe that’ll turn around soon
You are not wrong!
Bourbon is made to drink.Ntr like the taters that stare at their unopened bottles while spanking the monkee.
We advocate opening bottles and sharing them for sure.
Happy Bourbon Month! 3 years ago, I was collecting because I needed something to do. Now, I know what I like and I can comfortably pass on allocated stuff and sleep at night. I have found that the best bourbon is the one that's in your glass as you share it with friends and family.
Amen to that! Cheers!
Flippers ruin the bourbon hobby.
I am recording an episode about this soon.
Had a lot of fomo on rare bottles until found the joy of store picks. Getting really good pours for not outrageous prices or lines changed my attitude about playing the allocated hunger games. Store picks for the win
I just drink WT101, KC9, EVBiB, MM101, and the like. I have all the allocated bottles, but I only drink them when I am sharing with others.
Im hunting Makers Mark Cellar Aged, ECBP c923, Larceny c923, and WLW or G.T.S. Good luck on your hunting.
Thanks you!
Sorry everyone, it is my fault. I bought some rare bottles, and my luck in investing caused this, im sure.
😂 I relate to this so hard!
It’s busting. I’ve completely diminished my lust for the find. I don’t visit stores as much in search for allocated stuff and my interests has waned. That’s just me.
You are not alone. I would put myself in that same boat.
I am definitely seeing more and more bottles on the shelves that were fairly hard to get just a year or two ago.
Buffalo Trace's mid-priced stuff is still nowhere to be found though.
We are a few years out before inventory for those items will be up.
Very anecdotal, but I’ve been seeing historically popular allocated bottles sitting on the shelves at MULTIPLE stores around me. In my circle, a few of us have pulled back because we just have so much and we’ll never make it through what we have. We’re considering doing more bottle sharing instead of each of us buying all the same bottles.
That is a great idea. I am in the sample place with my collecting.
So you left out one major item. Barrel picks by UA-cam bourbon channels, their excellent pallets, and their patron platform. I’m a patreon of 4 different channels, spend a total of $60 a month for that, and get 2-5 single barrel barrel picks a month delivered to my house at MSRP. These $50-100 bottles of delicious picks beat out a 250$ ETL everyday
Solid point!
True… those who only buy to make profit are tainting the consumer market. 9:05
Also take into account the fact that most Americans are experiencing a severe decline in the buying power of their income. It’s called inflation!
Yep!
There are a lot of indications of an overall economy slowdown, so naturally the secondary bourbon market wouldn't escape it either after such a huge run up. Fed raised rates very fast and there's always a lag to when it whacks businesses and it's starting to be felt. The high end stuff will come down (paying $1000+ for GTS or pappy was always insane), but stuff like Eagle Rare or EH Taylor in the $30-40s will still disappear off shelves super fast
PVW prices were stable for years before covid. It is would significant if PVW prices dropped below the pre-covid stable price.
@@BourbonRealTalk Peak bourbon happened in Q4 of 2022. It's a very slow spiral down, and we won't see damage until 2029/2030 when an incredible amount of additional aged capacity becomes available.
@@jloutz I agree!
You have it backwards
I don't buy gaming systems when they first come out, and i only pay MSRP for whiskey.
Patience is a superpower 💯
You probably live in an ABC state.
@@ryananderson4315 I live in Georgia these days. I realized there's real power in figuring out which shelf available bottles are 🔥
Patience when hunting whiskey is a virtue, and I think it makes it taste better when you do get the bottle.
For the majority of Bourbon drinkers,anything over 150 dollars is ridiculous. It's just another alcoholic beverage to relax and enjoy. One point that I would like to make, is that the market is over saturated with too many choices. There are bottles that sit forever on the shelves. I have no idea what stores do with them if they can't sell them. It's up to the Bourbon drinkers themselves to resist over paying for bottles in order to bring prices down. Also,stop elevating allocated Bourbons to cult status,thereby making everyone start lusting after them!
I do not fault the excited new person, or a wealthy person with more disposable income than me, deciding to pursue a "rare" bottle. I think the public are slowly realizing they hype is not warranted, and I think things will slowly adjust to something more normal in the market.
JFC. I went back to Kentucky last week and even there Buffalo Trace was allocate. That's BS. It's a $33 bottle, and historically it was available EVERYWHERE. It's good, but it's just a smidge above Jim Beam. It's competing with 1792 and Woodford, and there is PLENTY of those available. I like BT and the rest of the BT line, but the prices and scarcity are completely manufactured. I hope all the 2nd market traders who were in it to make a buck and not enjoy the whisky go broke being unable to resell at profit. Can't wait for the bourbon bust. In the meantime, there's still great Kentucky bourbon available for reasonable prices.
Manufactured scarcity is a common theory that is thrown around. Can you explain to me what business actions BT has engaged in to create this scarcity, and how you came to possess this information?
I ask because BT only has 3 bourbon mashbills, many brands to produce for with those 3 mashbills, and nearly all of their SKUs are in high demand. It is totally illogical to me when someone claims they have more whiskey to sell and theorizes that they are holding it back to create a fake shortage.
When people want a certain product, but can't find it, they either settle for something less, or totally different. The hoarders or resellers are ruining things, because people just won't pay those insane prices after awhile. It's just not worth it. It also has the ability to turn people off to bourbon altogether.
That is exactly why I have been vocal about being against flippers who are running a bootleg liquor store for profit. They are just messing up the market.
It would be nice to see a return to historic mash bills and the death of crap like 95-5 bills
Also most “craft” is unimaginative crap and produced by mgp when the down fall comes you’ll know because mgps customers are going to be taking it on the chin
As the cofounder of The Prideful Goat I hope our commitment to disclosure, releasing things at cask strength NCF, and our attention to being a relative value to the other NDPs keeps us strong, but I get your point.
I can only speak just for myself, but my Bourbon buying has dropped dramatically 1) I am just tired of chasing allocated Bourbons, whats the point? Now I just buy the ones I like 2) Inflation, everything is expensive and I dont have as much disposable income to buy expensive bottles 3) How much can 1 person drink 4) Bourbon hoarders are starting to be mocked and shamed in a lot of the groups I belong to, and its not as cool to have tons of allocated bottles sitting in your basement, no one is impressed with it 5) I think people no longer care if they miss out, the lesson we have learned is that there is always another bottle coming next month, next year. 6) I think smaller, less know Bourbons are more fun to buy and try than chasing the big names 7) I am expanding into other liquors like Tequila and Rum and enjoying a bigger variety. So YES I do think there is a Bourbon Bust and I think is going to get worse.
You are not alone, although I don't expect a precipitous drop right now. I think it will be a slow decline back to normalcy.
The bourbon craze is dead.. 2024 and I see allocated stuff gathering dust on the shelves.. prices are still high though.. could be the inflation more than the demand. Market conditions seem to indicate that bourbon, rum, vodka and such that is 80+ dollars are going to have a harder time finding a buyer,. Growth will be in the sub 50$ market.. and that is distillers territtory and the MGP or sourced stuff that is typicaly overpriced will be tiny. long story short.. distillers are already cutting down production and instead consolidating.
The market is shifting for sure. Not sure I would call it dead just yet, but you make some good points.
Bourbon is a lot like the collector markets. They have all cooled down now. Consumers are getting pinched right now and THINGS whch at the end of the day is a what bourbon is cool down.
People are still buying. But they might be buying that really good sub $50 bottle rahter than splurging on a secondary bottle or that $100 bottle.
That is what I am seeing too!
When the market crashed back in the 70-80's the distilleries had a crap ton of whiskey they couldn't sell, so they left in the barrels for several more years, changed the names and pimped it as a premium brand and here we are. I remember the crash all the yuppies started driving BMW's and MB's and drank French and or German wines and loved to talk about which ones were better. Now that bourbon has been rolling for several years you have the same yuppies only older now trying to impress everyone by the vast knowledge of bourbon. Give me Jim Beam White label and can of coke zero and a glass of ice. All these posers talking about how to grade bourbon, please. Now the people making these videos might know what they're talking about, but the average person just repeats what they hear from these videos to impress their friends.
I make the videos and I am the first to admit that we are all kind of full of crap. People should taste for themselves and then drink what they like. There is a social benefit that we lose if the "posers" stop talking to others about bourbon, and I would not want that to happen. Whiskey does bring people together, but to your point, even the cheap stuff is pretty good.
*fingers crossed* maybe I can start finding Buffalo Trace products without driving to Kentucky to visit their distillery.
It should get easier to find over the next few years.
It's all cyclical...if there's a bust and prices drop, people will buy more and eventually supply will decrease and won't match the demand and prices will increase again.
Yes, but because of the long aging period for bourbon those cycles take decades and not years, and are very disruptive to businesses.
I will not pay more than $60 for a bottle of bourbon. I am at the point where I know what I like and I am not convinced spending more per bottle is worth it.
The law of diminishing returns kicks in pretty hard above $60 in bourbon.
That is a great way to look at it. My ability to appreciate the difference also diminishes.......😃 @@BourbonRealTalk
1000% correct.
I think we are in a correction period for all markets, including bourbon. I wouldn't say that the boom is over, because I am seeing more people at the store than ever. But I do think that people have come around to other brands that don't have a huge markup and realize that there isn't any real reason to pay secondary for bottles.
I agree!
Very interesting analysis. I think we definitely are giving back some gains, but also pricing/gouging has really hurt demand. I know I have pulled back a lot due to the insane prices on bottles, even the lower-end 'allocated' items like ECBP being sold around 100+ constantly.
If everyone approaches it like this, eventually the price gouging with stop working for the stores and the prices will come back down. I fear that for the most highly sought after bottles that is years away.
When I see Weller Single Barrel with a $900 price tag in my town, I think what a-hole would ever buy that?
Someone with money who is missing that one to have the entire line up. But I agree it isn't worth the secondary price.
Great Show. Great and funny commercial you guys did 😅
Glad you enjoyed it!
The secondary market might collapse, and people may lose interest in allocated bottles that are not good enough.
But the shelfers will be fine.
I think you are right!
Thank God. There's no excuse to have to hunt for Weller or pay 70 damn bucks for it.
I still think we are years away from things like Weller Antique being back on shelves, but there are plenty of signs that the bourbon market is cooling down.
I think that there are just so many more bourbon drinkers that have at least gotten to TRY the allocated/ unicorn stuff now...a little bit of " been there done that" at this point
I would have to agree.
There is some validity here. I got into bourbon because craft beer just got too expensive. I can have a couple ounces of bourbon for a nightcap and I'm good after that.
I'm not a big drinker, so got my 10 or so bottles and I'm good. Don't have to worry about expiration either.
That is what drew me towards whiskey over wine. Doesn't got bad and easier to share.
very nice insight, i had this same thought the other day and have decided to stop putting as much effort into the 'chase'
You are not alone. I am hearing this from many people.
Lol Stagg drops 20 bucks and people say the market’s collapsing.
You may not have watched the video, but the conclusions specifically stated that the market was not collapsing.
I think that is some good insight. The other factor I think we are going to quickly see in the next yr plus is a failing economy. As disposable income shrinks we will see a fall in higher priced whiskey. May take a few yrs to fall to reasonable levels, but once you see secondary turn, expect primary retail to follow
I think you are right. I am hearing it from all directions that people just can't justify the whiskey hunt in this economy.
I couldn't before, now it is just killing me. Too bad the good juice has become unobtainium. Just waiting.@@BourbonRealTalk
Howdy Randy! Nice review…bet your read is accurate! Way I look at it…if you don’t pay over MSRP then it don’t matter anyway! Buy what ya like when and where and enjoy! 🤠🇺🇸🇨🇱🥃
That strategy will never steer you wrong.
$22 Buffalo Trace,$40 Eagle Rare and $12 Benchmark Bonded 😮
👍
Great information Randy, Here is Arizona I can tell you the interest in whiskey has to be at an all time high along with prices in retail and secondary. Hopefully some of these prices including non allocated items will decrease at some point.
I am thinking inflation will continue to have it's impact, but maybe secondary prices may be lower, which should also affect price gouge stores too...eventually.
There's a lot of market saturation, and people are (somewhat) less inclined to spend on allocated bottles, which I think has slowed the secondary market a bit. The same thing happened in beer. Major market saturation and it's dipped in the last few years and weeded out a lot of smaller or inferior breweries. There are still LOTS of people drinking beer and the industry as a whole is doing fine, just a little less than when a brewery could open next door to another and they were both packed every night of the week. There were a lot of acquisitions that consolidated the market share, but that was more due to competition and bigger breweries losing a lot of money to craft beer during the craft boom and not necessarily the result of breweries falling down due to lack of interest in beer.
I'm thinking the bourbon and whiskey industry are doing just fine. I can't find most allocated bottles outside of raffles (in Colorado) and see new distilleries still popping up often with demand for products that aren't even distilled in house.
I suspect we have a number of years before we could expect any major market shifts.
I think the point about consumer habits changing from fomo is huge. I get asked for buffalo trace very often (we get maybe a case a month at most, sells out in a couple minutes) and they are always confused about why it isnt there and im often like "well you just asked me for it didnt you? Thats the reason". Many people dont think about other peoples market impact, they focus on their own experience. You can often see a change in demeanor once they understand that if we get 3 cases of buffalo trace thatll go in 20 minutes, where if we get 3 cases of elijah craig for example, no matter the price, that takes a good 2 weeks to leave the store. I think some people are starting to realize that that competition might just not be worth it.
I am seeing that too. People are starting to realize the shelf available products are just as good.
I hope a downturn in the market comes soon. The headache of trying to get a decent bottle has been a joke. Went into a store today, they had 4 bottles of Stagg behind the counter. $500 EACH!!!!!
Did you tell them you can have it shipped to your door for less than half that?
@@BourbonRealTalk wait actually? What website? I’ll buy right now
@@jameslane9267 There are private facebook groups we refer to as the "secondary market". These bottles generally trade for 220-250. I can't add you to any since I had to leave them all due to my involvement in the industry. Make some whiskey friends on facebook and you will eventually find someone who can point you in the right direction.
I hope speculators get REKT
It will happen eventually.
If true, hopefully prices will come back down.
We are starting to see some secondary prices drop, so that is a good thing.
Great analysis u made some good points. I think the opposite, but only time will tell!
Meaning, you think there is going to be a precipitous drop soon?
@@BourbonRealTalk oh no, I think domestic demand will double by the time the distillery expansions start putting out stuff in 5-7 years. Bourbon will still be on fire. Just my guess.
Great topic, hopefully the scalpers get burned soon, and folks like us can enjoy tasty Whiskey for a fair price! 😋👍
I have a piece coming out on this!
I’ve definitely notice way more bourbon in stores. Even some prices have lowered and the economy sucks. Who wants to pay absorbent prices for this stuff. It got so out of control.
Another really compelling discussion ... keep doing these. Yesterday I walked into my favorite local store and found a 1792 BiB store pick, so I happily grabbed one and went to the register. The store owner told me that some guy had walked in and bought three cases of the stuff. I asked him if he thought the guy was going to start reselling them and he just rolled his eyes. The stupid part is that this made me buy two instead of one 🙄
Well, If I found a 1792 BiB pick I would buy two as well...so there is that😂
@@BourbonRealTalkagreed
@@BourbonRealTalk chuckle ... good point.
bourbon is getting boring, everything that's decent is so out of touch with the average consumer in price and availability. I️ don't feel like dedicating my entire life to get a decent bottle of bourbon. It's just a hobby of financially well off alcoholics that can spend the money or a bunch of alcoholics that have friends that know someone. I️ don't have time nor the money to spend tons to get a moderately decent tasting bottle.
Im tired of certain distilleries "manufacturing scarcity"... As a bourbon lover it's old and played out!
I am curious what convinces you that there are programs to fake scarcity?
@@BourbonRealTalkDon't be so naive, Randy. One word....Sazerac.
@@BourbonRealTalk In my opinion, I feel it's just to remain relevant in a highly saturated market. Because we as human beings want what we can't have.
@@DBTdad No, I figured you were talking about Sazerac. Since "manufactured scarcity" means they have more product for market, but they pretend they don't so they can make people think it is rare when it is not, I wanted to know what actions you believe Sazerac has taken to "manufacture scarcity". This is a common rumor that they manufacture scarcity, but I have never had anyone be able to point to any behavior on their part that could lead to fake scarcity. I do find that when I questions someone about this they resort to saying things like "what are naive?" instead of telling me, I know someone who works at BT in the barrel warehouse, and there is a lot of whiskey being left in storage that could be bottled...or something else that would actually point to manufactured scarcity.
@@singram1978 I understand the business logic behind why a company would want to manufacture scarcity, I am asking you what actual actions you believe they have taken to make it happen, and where you got the information to substantiate the claim.
Haven't really seen prices on national secondary coming down at all. And anything Buffalo Trace takes about 30 seconds to leave the store once it hits the shelf. Craft distilling is still booming, especially for something that takes at least two years to be drinkable.
I don't follow the secondary very closely, but Dec 2021 ER17 was $1900 and the last time I looked it was down to $1,450. I have heard other similar price drops.
@@BourbonRealTalk guess I need to save up...because I might pull the trigger at 1200...
@@B1gC4st Pre-covid was 850
@@BourbonRealTalk that was also 90 proof though
The "Premiumization" of whiskey to end the Dark Ages followed the old adage: "If it isn't selling, raise the price!" and it totally worked.
I hope we are over the peak of speculation and flipper behavior - there are things that I just want to buy to drink that aren't even that expensive or rare or crazy to begin with that I can't find at all or only find for a 1,000% mark-up.
I think eventually the market will fix itself, but given the time it takes to make more of the things that are rare, I still think we are years away from that.
Hopefully the "Flipper" Asshats are moving on to another venue.
All good points. Another point is that people are just cutting back generally. I also agree with 'bourbon fatigue' in that people just aren't chasing the unicorns anymore and are drinking the very good choices on the shelf. I've stopped looking for them and if they fall in my lap, fine. Otherwise, there are a ton of great choices available.
I am hearing this more and more from former aggressive hunters.
I'm with you here. I've only been at it a year or so (converted craft beer drinker) and am already turning towards solid drinkers in the $20-40 range and store picks under $50. My palate just isn't sophisticated enough and I often find I like the lower priced "go-tos" more than the $75 plus premiums anyways.
@@JeffPrice-ve9to You are not alone!
ua-cam.com/video/KJpDTGIQqLM/v-deo.html
great video, thanks. I personally stopped buying bourbon a few months ago, because I have more than 25 bourbons (and multiple bottles for a couple of my favorites) and I just don't need that much. (I have one drink a night). I decided to stop buying for a while.
But before that, I DID notice the market change. For example, for a while, you could not find Buffalo Trace anywhere near where I live. When I did find it, it went for $35-70. Recently I bought a bottle for $28, and it seems to be in all the stores now. Other scarce products have been showing up.
But I also noticed many of the non-allocated bourbons that I like going up significantly in price (for example, knob 9).
I also stopped watching bourbon videos. I have to say I have missed you! Always love the positive message!
Welcome back! I think your experience is pretty common.
As long as folks are still buying and flipping terrible bourbon like Traveller, the boom is still alive and well 😂
The same thing happen with French Bordeaux in the 1980s, crazy FOMO and $20-30 wines went to $75-$100 when unallocated stuff was $10
Now they are getting government subsidies to compensate for over production.
We've all witnessed the boom-bust cycle. The three factors controlling prices on a free market are supply, demand and competition. One other outlying factor is an experienced and educated consumer. All four of these are currently working to drive down the price of whiskey. On the supply side, it's evident the producers are continuing to increase production. There's also a significant number of startup brands entering the market. Some are overpriced, some are not. On the demand side, there are people out there buying these expensive bottles, but I would expect them to be a low percentage compared to the everyday whiskey consumers who can't afford secondary prices. I would have to believe the majority of whiskey consumers are in the same boat. There's only so much disposable income to spend on a "luxury" item. We're also experiencing inflationary pressure on necessary goods like gas, food, rent and higher interest rates, which limits buying power for real estate and vehicles. These factors put downward pressure on the demand. The false demand created by the flippers, which priced many of the allocated products out of reach of the majority of consumers eventually will collapse because of this slowing demand. The "wallets" paying these exorbanate prices also will eventually stop buying them. One other factor is the competition. For example Blanton's is a good whiskey. It takes advantage of it's unique branding, but the true value of a consumable is based upon quality and taste. There are competitive and sometimes superior products out there now for significantly less money. Blanton's is not a good value at secondary prices. Honestly, I don't believe it's a good value at MSRP. An example of a good value whiskey is Rare Breed. It typically cost less and provides a superior quality and tasting experience. One other factor is the whiskey community is becoming experienced. The consumers who are new to the market tend to be susceptible to fads such as a horse on a bottle stopper. Ignorance results in a volatile market. Experienced consumers tend to look for value, which is great tasting whiskey at a reasonable price. The increase in experienced consumers also provide a stable market, which is why the producers are increasing production. They see the future demand as being strong, but with their customers demanding value. So when all is said and done, the bubble will burst and the whiskey consumers will benefit with quality options at good prices. UA-camrs like Randy are uniquely responsible for guiding the community to a more value based pricing system. Keep up the good work!!
Dang bro! You summaries the whole script...even the parts that got edited out because it was too long and boring.
I like to say God loves you and so do I.
Thank you. I love you too!
I don’t have experience with secondary. I have seen way to many predatory stores here in MA. Just yesterday one store has a $229 STAGG, $129 Weller special, $179 EH Taylor small batch!
A Rip Van Winkle that I didn’t even bother to ask about!!
If they have those bottles out with no prices. I just don't shop there.
Once again, great analysis and great job putting it into terms for the layman to be able to process and absorb.
Thanks for all the info. As a consumer I hope the bubble does burst. I know inflation is hitting but I'm almost priced out of being able to buy my WT101 and KC100. I mourn the days (less than 20 years ago) when I could pick up Weller Antique 107 for less than $25 per bottle.
I don't what a burst because that would be bad for the industry, but a cooling off would be welcomed by most for the reasons you mentioned.
I don't think the bourbon market is going to "bust," but I think we're definitely edging back from the "irrational exuberance" of the current market.
I agree!
It's good to know back in 94 when I graduated, Pappy Van Winkle released the 20 year old Bourbon!! I'm 48 now and just got into Bourbon about a year ago. 😄
They couldn't give the stuff away back then. I can't even imaging how much an original release bottle would be worth today.
Your point about FOMO is commonly referred to as "pantry loading' in consumer marketing. There is no doubt that is happening and once that begins to cool off, the market will seek equilibrium. Net, net is that the bourbon market will without a doubt cool off and I believe is beginning to happen now.
I think you are correct, and I know a lot of people will welcome it!
Will be interesting to see how similar/dissimilar the Bourbon market trend will be to Craft Beer's boom and recent downturn. Likely won't play out the same way given differences in products and market landscape, but I do think it's notable that FOMO also had a large role in Craft Beer's heyday with brewery only and limited releases. FOMO has almost entirely vanished from the beer scene...
The main difference is production time. If a craft brewery had a successful release, the other 5 craft breweries in the area could replicate the beer in a short period of time. In the case of bourbon, you would have to start today to release a similar product 8-25 years from now. I am not sure how that reality will play out, but I am sure it will be a factor.
Many of the speculators are going to get burned in the long run when the capacity increases goes online for Buffalo Trace and others. It's a shame that it will take 5-7 years. Oh well...tons of solid shelf available bourbons.
I feel bad for all the people who invested in barrel ventures. I have no idea how many investment groups were formed to produce 1,000 barrels and set on them for a few years, but when they all start to release their inventory to cash in on profits I think they will find too many people had the same idea.
As always good information from a reasoned, cogent viewpoint presented in a straight forward method. If the market is cooling off I hope for two outcomes, #1 a crash of the insanity of the secondary market and #2 the rise of availability from craft or smaller distillers. I will acknowledge the former when I see the bottle I can buy at my local state store for "X" dollars listed at that same price from a major online retailer and not "4X". The latter, well maybe when half the bottles I see that do disclose origin arent from Indiana. I agree that folks finding, enjoying and recommending whiskeys on the shelf 75-80% of the time that dont run you $80 or so is great news. Keep up the good work.
Thank you!
I’ve noticed price drops on secondary for quite a bit of skus and I think a big part is the “finance bros” can’t just throw thousands at bottles because they know more money will come in.
Inventory is increasing and things are sitting longer causing that downward pressure you were talking about!
I am seeing and feeling the same thing. Inflation has definitely shifted my spending on whiskey.
Your bar is an example of the great amount of inventory that is sitting on consumer shelves compared to before the bourbon boom. Looks like you have 1000 bottles back there. Twenty years ago I would venture a guess most bourbon drinkers had 2 to 5 bottles in their homes.
That is a solid point. It is hard to gage what true demand is when FOMO is causing people to buy far more than they would if everything was available on the shelf.
I am amazes at the new small distilleries all over the country, especially since the time needed to develop a good aged bourbon is years, and their is no guarantee your product is good enough to compete plus their prices are generally in the $55+ range. I have surely found tastings is the only way to avoid a bad purchase. Great show thanks!
It is difficult to imaging the total increase in production capacity that has occurred during the boom. There will definitely be some winners and losers.
Part of me is happy because then rare things might stay on the shelf long enough for me to get it, and maybe prices will come back down. But the craft beer industry tanking because younger drinkers want seltzers and crap like that hasn't worked out that way - there's just less selection. I know bourbon takes about 20 to 100 times longer to make than beer.
That is my fear when I hear whiskey enthusiasts say they want a crash. I don't think it would work out the way they imagine. Just a lot of people losing their jobs and brands going away.
Thank you for your insightful information. It’s a lot to try to take in. I’m not a professional in this field. But I know my personal finances. I’m a consumer not a collector or someone with a wall of bottles of bourbon. 😂😅👍
Your experience is being repeated by others far and wide!
After not being able to find ECBP, last year I ended up with 3 of the regular releases, a barrel pick, and a bottle of ECTB.
I hope you're right and things settle down. I've been drinking bourbon since the 80's and would like to be able to get some of the bottles I like, again
We may be a few years out, but I think we are starting to see the beginning signs that it is coming.
I'm still having difficulty finding allocated stuff here in KY, but I do start to see more "rare" whiskey on websites although still at higher prices than MSRP but not as high as secondary. I have certainly slowed down substantially on my FOMO as prices have become ridiculous for the juice it contains, mostly from NDPs and celebrity whiskey.
Great video as always guys!
I have the same problem here in KY. Part of me thinks it is due to when people come down here to visit the bourbon trail, that they also go hunting for allocated bottles. Something along the lines of "Well, a lot of it is made here, therefore allocated bottles are easier to find" or something like that. I've been after a bottle of Antique 107, but when I do find it, it is ridiculously above msrp. Oh well, plenty of other good, easier to find bourbon out there to drink.
Glad you enjoyed it!
I agree. To note a few I have recently enjoyed. Rittenhouse Private Select 100 proof, Tumblin Dice High-Rye store pick 117 proof. Yellowstone pick at 115.
Great review. I think there is a ton of better juice available, more store picks, and more allocated bourbons on the shelf that may be causing secondary market issues. A year or two ago, I would have paid a lot more for rare bourbons than I would today.
I am starting to hear the same thing from many people who formerly hunted rare bottles aggressively.
most def close to over. I've been through a lot of collector items booms and busts. The sheer income level of most of the bourbon fans around me will keep a true bust from happening....but these folks may also lose interest when they get a good enough palette to realize stuff like eagle rare, buff trace, EHTsmall B, WSR, etc are actually not good. But the real question is, will they ever figure this out? Lets take craft beer. The supply of quality craft breweries took all the lure out of it and you can now go less than 15 miles and hit a world class brewery. Now, I think the whiskey market is here to stay, but I think people will buy secondary bottles less and less as more quality stuff becomes available. Also, with ABC starting to feel pressure to stop allowing managers keep all their allocated stuff, all signs point to a steady decline in price for the next couple years at least.....and that's already showing BIGTIME in the secondary groups. I mean, prices tripled in about a 4 year span recently, can't last forever.
I tend to agree, accept I don't think it is fair to say "eagle rare, buff trace, EHTsmall B, WSR, etc are actually not good". I would say they are not worth the hype, but I think they produce an adequate drinking experience.
The companies, Sazerac in particular, thought it was funny to have their distributors sell massive amounts to liquor stores that plussed up prices on the rare stuff. That was so funny to them they had stores fully stocked who were doing 80 for Eagle Rare and 120 for Blantons. For 40 dollar bottles. And cut off liquor stores who were honest in their pricing
I hope they choke on it.
It is illegal for Sazerac to refuse to sell to retailers who mark their prices up, and it is illegal for Sazerac to attempt to influence the prices a liquor store charges, so I do not think the scenario you laid out could be accurate.
The boom is over when buffalo trace no longer has a 1 bottle limit per customer. 😂
That will likely be a few years.
@@BourbonRealTalk I havent seen a purchase limit sign on Buffalo trace in Houston for a few months
@@BourbonRealTalk the Buffalo trace bourbon. Not the allocated stuff
@@30Huckleberry Ah...that make sense.
Folks can barely afford to buy their groceries and fill up at the gas station. Yep, this is full-on 'bourbon bust' as the global economic-ometer is screaming 'terrain terrain! Pull up pull up!'. Sadly we've lost both wings and the pilots had a brain freeze, so over priced secondary is approximately the 5 millionth priority for most right now
I think you are right, but I still don't think it will be a bust all at once but a slow decline.
I haven’t seen “ANY” reduction in prices!
Are you looking on the secondary, or are you talking about the price gouge stores in your area?
@@BourbonRealTalk I’m talking about the local liquor stores. I have never purchased from the secondary market.
@@paulring4267 It will take a while for them to figure it out.
Another counter point…Is people are drinking the bottles…so truly limited bottles will hold better
Also nostalgia of the past, a bottle shared at a wedding or special event will have a desirability in the future
And…While the secondary is softer, even producers/retailers are raising prices creating a higher bottom for the market. In fact, I suppose the retailers/producers benefit from the demand secondary has brought and realize it’s not in their interests to flood the market with too many new bottles even when production catches up in 5-7yrs or longer for older age statements of 10-15yrs
But…agree…there is room for a drop and leveling of the market
I think producers like BT will produce as much whiskey as they can and release it all, with the expectation that they will take market share from other producers instead of devaluing their brands.
@@BourbonRealTalk agreed…but at the same time they have raised the floor on the market. Blantons at Walgreens in FL is now 70-80…ER close to 50 after tax, Hancock’s at total wine is now 100 plus tax…
So yeah, I think they will sell as much as they can, but they are protecting the market by raising prices on demand which subsequently creates support for “some” secondary prices
Great opinions…appreciate your coverage on the topic…thanks for sharing 🤙
I don’t buy bottles to invest in. So I would like to see the prices come down without putting companies out of business.
Same
Great capture and summary. Personally, the desire to chase faded within 6months, recent discussions and content towards best available and store picks along with the fact that I have found what I like and predominantly stick with it has reduced my spend by 80%. Additionally, once you hit 50-100 bottles it get more difficult to justify the spend. Keep it up with the great content and i have enjoyed JT Meleck. Wouldn’t have found it unless you had brought it forward.
This is exactly where I'm at in my whiskey journey. 🥃
I agree. I am hearing this more often from former aggressive hunters.
Before covid19 my wife and I could walk in to a distillery and take a tour and tasting without reservations, then the reservations were months out. Now it seems the opening are getting more available, which says the boom is slowing.
I agree that is another good indicator!
based on the stock on shelf @ my routine outlet, I think the boom ended a few months ago - though still waiting on the allocated labels to be more available
We may be years away from that, but I think the transition will be slow and things will start to normalize now.
Maybe, but things won't go back to normal or price drop until justice is restored in our nation. Trump 2024!
I fear that it doesn't matter who gets elected, prices are not going back down for most things.
I got started collecting wine and spirits in the 1990s. The first bourbon that I drank neat was Knob Creek, which was new at the time. I still like Knob Creek, and I came home with a bottle of the readily available 12-year yesterday. It was an interesting decade, not just for whisky, but for all kinds of booze. It seems like, across the board, quality had become a focus in a way that had never previously been the case. Craft beer was booming, and new wineries were popping up everywhere. Bourbon that went beyond the standard bottom shelf mixing stuff was finally becoming widely available, and single malt Scotch was starting to have its moment. It was a good time to get started on booze, because the selection was finally getting good, but hype hadn't gone through the roof yet.
I have been wondering if FOMO burnout will ever become widespread. I'm starting to see some signs of resistance to FOMO. People are doing tasting comparisons of allocated whiskies vs. other things that are more readily available, and it isn't uncommon for those other things to perform well. I'm not willing to eat up my time and money chasing hyped-up industrial bourbon that isn't any better than other bottles out there, and I have no trouble finding excellent alternatives. Currently, I only have one allocated Buffalo Trace product in my collection, and I don't intend to acquire any others unless one randomly turns up somewhere for a price that is in line with its quality. If more people decide to resist FOMO and give other good whiskies a chance, demand will spread out more evenly through the market and secondary prices will come down. This wouldn't be a bust - it would be a healthy market correction.
I've thought of an interesting metric, though it would be labor intensive and impractical to compile. The ongoing percentage of posts on the Bourbon Real Talk Facebook group (or any other bourbon group) related to allocated bottles would be interesting to track. If FOMO burnout ever happens, one would expect the percentage of posts related to allocated bottles to go down over time. Currently, allocated bottles seem to dominate the discussion there, so I don't think it is close to happening yet.
All solid points. We would have to build a bot to scrape the data because manually going through posts would be terrible.
And it would suck. 😝👊🇺🇸🧂
@@BourbonRealTalk Even then, it would be tough because a lot of the communication there is in the form of photographs, which would be impossible to automatically analyze without some very advanced (and expensive) software. It's definitely not practical, but significant changes over time are likely to be noticed on a qualitative level within the community.
Yes finally, Ive seen some good bourbon sitting. Maybe I can finally get a weller or a taylor back up.
As I mentioned in the video we are likely a few years out from that.
Very thoughtful analysis; thx Randy!
Glad you enjoyed it!
As long as the schmedium boom never ends, I’m good.
It is about time for a new commercial, but I was worried we could not sneak it in.
Great Video !!!
Just a quick question, what bottle is that on the bottom right, looks like a nulu yoohoo collab?
That is a single barrel of Nulu. The club that picked it made special sticker and gave it away to all the members who bought a bottle. I is a play on words with Yoohoo.
Thanks for the business side of bourbon it helps me understand the market much better.
Happy to help!
Spot on.
More importantly though (to me)is your sincerity as to why you do this.
In my most humble opinion
Thank you!
Great topic, interesting commentary but too much fundraising and merchandising
Sorry. I would be faced with shutting down this free information platform along with the Facebook community that supports those struggling with mental health issues without merch sales and patreon support. I would lose over $60,000 a year providing the services we provide trying to pay for it with youtube view money. Not gonna do it.
This is how economics should be taught to college students 😂
And to adults who have an opinion about the economy 😂
@@BourbonRealTalk HA! preach it!
I'm so sorry to hear that about your brother, my condolences.
Thank you!
Lower prices are good for the consumer, secondary markets are over priced and create false scarcity.
Solid points!
This guy is not a friend of people that enjoy bourbon. Change my mind.
I created and run the largest friendliest bourbon forum in the world. What are you talking about?
Oh man, what am I supposed to do with 175 bottles of WSR now.
😂