During a year spent in Taiwan in the 80s, I was astounded to see the busy main streets of Taipei _completely cleared_ of all traffic withing 5 minutes of the air raid sirens sounding for a drill, which they run every 6 months, IIRC. This is for the rapid deployment of the military. The Taiwanese have prepared for the Chinese every day since 1949. Respect. 👍🇦🇺
@@comicus6769 LOL, new to a democracy, aren't you? Democracy may look chaotic, but it's much more stable than any authoritarian regime. Why? Because in a dictatorial regime, the supreme leader is critical. So much so that if anything happens to him, the system will be in chaos with internal fighting immediately. And it's not like controlled fighting in a democracy, we're talking about civil war of the sort. This is why in monarchy, when it changed hands to another family, the transitional period was always filled with blood. A dictatorial regime is quite similar. And Xi has no successor at all. If he did, everyone would know him already. Having a successor provides a peaceful transitional period if something happens to Xi. But this is not the case.
@@JohnJaneson In fact,the original text said before engaging in war, it's crucial to carefully consider all options,including political and economic factors.War becomes a necessary means when diplomacy reaches its limits.Following that, it's crucial to underscore"The highest form of the art of war is winning a war without fighting a battle".夫用兵之法，全国为上"
China is very patient and have very long plans in place lasting years and even decades. China is growing in power and influence and America is waning so its just a matter of playing time out.
I am Chinese. Like most other Chinese and Taiwanese, I don't want to see a war between China and Taiwan, because it is a war between compatriots without a real winner. But if a war really breaks out between China and Taiwan, I think the main battlefield will not be in Taiwan, but in the southern islands of Japan and the islands where the US military is stationed in the western Pacific. In this war, China's goal is indeed to land and occupy Taiwan by force, but whether it can successfully control Taiwan depends more on whether it can suppress the support of the US military to Taiwan. China's attack on Taiwan is aimed at paralyzing all political and military facilities in Taiwan, rather than plundering the economy and resources. But in any case, I think the biggest problem is how to evacuate civilians in the war zone. The people are the foundation of the government or political party. Neither China nor Taiwan should put civilians in the war zone. Therefore, I think both sides will consider the issue of civilians, making it difficult to start a war, or end the war early and turn to peace talks.
Mainland massive casualties and global blockades -> provinces protests -> central authority collapsing -> provinces reapplying to rejoin ROC administration ROC will accept the rich southern provinces
@@JohnJaneson Although thanks of decades of CCP led industrialization, there is gonna need to be a massive environmental clean up as China’s environmental problems are nothing short of a complete disaster. We’re talking billions of dollars in just fixing the environment alone. plus millions more in rebuilding efforts, plus millions more in decommunization efforts, and then you have to deal with the declining population (although I think Taiwan is suffering from that too).
Even if the US becomes less dependent on Taiwan chips, the rest of US allies will maintain that dependency for many ye a rs to come. Thus the US will still need to protect Taiwan.
It's not just about chips, if China takes Taiwan they control the sea trade routes in the Pacific. The U.S. and it's allies in the region will never let this happen.
@@ronblack7870 I never said it would become stagnant. What I am saying is that it will not be essential to the US economy. However, Europe and other US allies will be dependent upon Tiawan chip production for the foreseeable future.
If China can move a billion people back and forth across the country in 2 weeks at Chinese New Year every year using their civilian transportation networks, then they're not going to need a long period to send 1 million soldiers and supplies to the Fujian coastline. 'Experts' are greatly underestimating China's logistical networks if they think that an invasion of Taiwan is going to need a long buildup before it starts. China could launch the full invasion next week if it chose. If they want to take the island before the US has a chance to react, they are going to do it by surprise. Whether or not the invasion happens all depends on what is going on inside the head of one man in Beijing... without knowing what he is thinking, no one can reasonably predict the probability of this war.
US routinely attacks democracies and is currently supporting 5 totalitarian dictatorships across the world. Please, please consider not voting due to your criminal degree of ignorance.
@@hitthedeck4115 The Dutch company ASML makes the photolithography machines that produce the chips from the 3 nm and 5 nm wafers that TSMC cranks out. They basically have a corner on that market.
@@hallmobility Yes, but that's not the point. The point is that the USA can tell a company in another country to do X, Y, Z and both the company and the country bend over to the USA.
"If WWII had not happened, Taiwan would still be under Japanese control. Unfortunately this war did happen..." Is the narrator suggesting that Japanese occupation was a good thing? Totally bonkers
ccp is not attacking anyone - how long do u think the parents of only children continue the fight? the parents will probably overthrow the government!!!
True. Or provinces will revolt and rejoin ROC. the land issues today is a huge sore point betwen the central government and the provincial governments.
You miss out the factors Peter Zeihan reports frequently, namely that cutting off China’s imports of foodstuffs and oil would be relatively easy leading to millions of civilian deaths.
CCP will not invade Taiwan, but use all other means to unify, my theory is slightly different. xI knows he can't get into a situation like Russia is in Ukraine, but he has a different game plan in mind. With Russia weakened so much, now almost like a vassal state of Russia, xi and ccp are eying the Russian far east to gobble up (Manchuria) which was handed to czar in 1895 in a humiliating war. By annexing Russian far east and part of eastern Siberia that has the largest fresh water lake , Lake Baikul ccp can supply whole of NE china with fresh water not to mention all the mineral wealth that lies in Siberia. xi will continue to rattle the trinkets at Taiwan and the world but would not attack, he has set his sights on Russian Fareast, despite the panda hug he gave Putin recently.
Sorry, Chinese from the mainland didn't start coming to Taiwan until the 1400's not 6,000 years ago. Taiwan aboriginal people were here (probably South Pacific Islanders) before they the Chinese started immigrating here.
In the 1620s, China’s Fujian province tried to establish relationships with Dutch Formosa, but the contact was abruptly stopped by the Han Ming Dynasty.
The US could also do something really damaging to China: "restore" diplomatic relationship with ROC, Taiwan and "all" privileges and obligations (i.e., the military treaty between ROC and the US) ONCE the invasion begins.
This still has yet to play out. China has not given up on absorbing Taiwan, and won't. The real question is: what would the U.S. do to stop an invasion, if much of anything?
It’s one thing for Russia to rely on Chinese imports after western sanctions but China relying on Russia is just not in the books. Taiwan is symbolic and globally important. China does not NEED Taiwan.
How would any American feel if the British interfered with the American civil war and prevented the North from prevailing. I think the North will never give up and one day take the South back. This would happen when the North was stronger than the British.
It's theatre above all else. So long as Taiwan does not declare outright independence, China can simply switch the rhetoric on and off depending on the changing political tides in Taiwan. When the DPP are in the ascendancy, China can use maximum verbal firepower and grey zone tactics. When opposition parties are in the ascendancy, China can tone the verbal firepower down. Taiwan won't declare outright independence for several reasons. The first is that the Taiwanese themselves don't support it. The status quo works for them. That they might have references to the Republic of China is irrelevant in practical terms. Taiwan functions as its own country with its own system. Whether it's the Republic of China which, at this point, is only really Taiwan and a few islands that are "technically" a part of Fujian or the Republic of Taiwan is meaningless. The second is that the United States will only support Taiwan so long as it does not provoke a conflict. Declaring independence would be just that. China has bigger fish to fry.
I wouldn't count on them being too afraid to invade Taiwan. Xi has really tied his reputation to conquering Taiwan and will look weak within the CCP if he never follows through with it.
Chinese probably building a tunnel under the sea straight to Taiwan, invade them from underneath, and above.. Heard here first, and if your in Taiwan tell your people..
From the CCP's perspective it is easier to just coexist. 1. Cross-strait trade and tourism exist 2. Any overt hostilities will result in sanctions and getting trade cut off at places like Malacca 3. Military fiascos will escalate dramatically and highlight the PLA's inability to conduct itself properly; "mysterious" jet shoot downs by American or Japanese SAMs will question whether the war should expand to include a wider theatre 4. Both the CCP and Taiwan know the One-China policy exists just for the domestic audience to project an image strength and unity; if they have to start fighting to prove it, then it will collapse because it isn't even a realistic, practical image. 5. It is way cheaper to have a larger paper army that looks cool, than a much smaller army that actually invests itself to an effective, organized combat force. 6. Numbers matter in attrition, and it is preferably if the mainland just use giant amounts of artillery and drones and missiles...but then what would you have left to conquer? 7. A pro-mainland Taiwanese party that shifts the popular sentiment towards reunification is the preferable way for the CCP to gain control of Taiwain...and again, it's hardly better than just the way things are now. 8. Let's say they push the button and invade: whatever is of any value to the CCP will be shipped elsewhere immediately. The CCP just sacrifices AT LEAST a million of their best males just to gain a hunk of land, filled with people who will hate them. It won't like like Hong Kong, it will be an insurgency forever like in Burma or the Phillipines. 9. I know people who are pro-CCP on the Taiwan issue: once they realize it will be like Ukraine, they aren't going to be so supportive of the mainland anymore. China knows that the overseas Chinese community will not take their side. Aid, intelligence, and lobbying will mostly lean towards Taiwan than otherwise. 10. At the end of the day, the One-China policy exists for purely ideological reasons, the issue is hardly touchy as Crimea. TLDR the only time I can imagine the CCP actually attacking Taiwain would be in the form of 1. A power vacuum in Taiwan that leaves its military in tatters 2. Relations with US get THAT bad that they are abandoned 3. Xi loses his senses and orders the PLA to invade, but that means he's dumber than Putin
Although invading Taiwan is almost certainly would be bad for China, at the end of the day whether they decide to invade Taiwan or not comes down to the decision of just one man, Xi Jinping.
No, incorrect, Taiwan was part of Japan and only entrusted to China occupation by the Allies on 1945 to wait for later treaty, that is, San Francisco treaty on 1952, Japan only gave away the sovereignty of Taiwan but never give it to China.
Regarding the part at 2.18, it’s more accurate to say that the exiled Nationalist government held on to the claim to be the government of the whole of China, including Taiwan.
Exactly. Taiwanese businessmen and artists should never kowtow to China either. They can’t really hurt your country and you can make money without China’s influences.
English Channel crossing distance is 21 miles (32 km), NOT 100 miles (even not to the Normandy shores). Closest distance between China and Taiwan is 100 miles (160 km).
From a Department of the Navy, Naval Historical Center: "The English Channel, nearly a hundred miles wide between Portsmouth, England, and the Normandy beaches, was a formidible military barrier". (Yes, either it misspelled "formidable" or someone transcribed it wrong).
@@lonniemcclure4538 - of course give you that from Portsmouth England it is some over 100 miles to the beaches of Normandy. But 100 miles is in contrast the shortest distance from shore to shore China to Taiwan. Wile the shortest distance from shore to shore UK to France is 21 miles.
@@LeonLoewenherz777 Taiwan has never held a referendum on independence or declared independence. 2022 survey found 1% wanted reunification, 30% wanted independence and the rest want to maintain the status quo. The recent Taiwan elections reflect these numbers because the DPP party which favors independence received 40% of the vote. Recognizing Taiwan as an independently country is like recognizing Quebec as a country. Taiwan has never officially declared independence.
It's all about logistics, China can't cross the sea in significant numbers. Even the Nazi knew invading the UK would lead to huge amounts of loss and that is only 26 miles.
They can cross the strait in massive numbers. Central media has shown how the BYD mega ships can carry tanks etc with high efficiency. China is all about dual use. The question is, how many ships Taiwan can sink. And you can be assured CCP will claim Taiwan sinks civilian cargo ships all while in fact it's PLA ships
@@vueport99the problem isnt China getting across the Strait. It's doing it twice. China being able to get resupply ships to the frontlines of the war zones and resupply it's troops/ships/equipment would be almost impossible once the fighting starts
To be fair, it would be stupid to invade without the chance to take it over..... Calling them bullies is a bit childish - the US does the very same to secure their interests.
I agree....it must be 100% sure success. Must NOT be like UKRAINE-RUSSIA conflict. Must be that PH Japan and SOKOR not to get involved. Must be AUSTRALIA NOT to get involved. And most of ALL. ....Indo-Pacific Command must NOT get involved. Xi finds that easy? Then go ahead. Let's rock and roll and see if Xi's army are immortals. 😂😂😂😂😂😂
vice-versa: They keep the tension high > aka one of the best way to unify people is by having an enemy (rally around the flag). Taiwan's female president is actually very supportive on America's support for Ukraine because to her ~ showing determination is very important to prevent aggressors from every attempting to "take 2 step forward and 1 step back" because that 1 step gain will cost them more than just a leg.
Maybe they do not have the need nor wish to go to war, unlike the USA whose economy is dependent on wars (and not very good at it). China is Taiwan’s biggest export market.
@@paulshirtliff5972 Are you delusional or something ? NATO is not fighting anybody right now. Or you mean with ruSSia ? Where ruSSia lost some 500K dead + wounded without NATO even showing up.
The Chinese see what corruption does in the russian military, if the chinese administration thinks there is no corruption in their military then I think Mr. Xi is even more delusional !!! XI knows his military is below standards. Just like putting knows.
Quantity is easier to determine than quality and effectiveness. The Russian had without a doubt a LOT of military material. Luckily they had no good plan how to use it.
Then you get a chance to change the record books for Russia. Russia, without a doubt is the worst military in the world seriously. They are tactic is blunt. Trauma doesn’t work. Can’t work never will work.
I was wondering who the forces were behind the operation of this youtube channel, due to the similarity of it's analysis. Thanks for clearing up a big mystery for me...
Russia is literally fighting NATO in Ukraine. 2nd, 4th, 3rd doesn't matter, they are in a battle with NATO. If the Taliban can beat NATO, why not Russia?
Points you omitted: a) Comparing such an invasion to D Day, the Strait is four times wider than the English Channel. b) Unlike D Day, the Chinese could not hide an invasion fleet. As we've seen in Ukraine, both sides have almost perfect aerial intelligence on each other making a surprise attack impossible. c) China is totally dependent on oil and coal imports to keep the lights on. So, all Taiwan's allies have to do is impose a temporary blockade and the CCP would be on its knees within a month. d) China is facing demographic collapse due to the low birthrate. It simply cannot afford to lose a million men in the Straits. The longer Taiwan remains independent the worse the situation is for the CCP. Those Tiger Moms won't let their sons die for Xi Jinping's ego. e) Lastly, China's economy is very sensitive to trade sanctions. These would inevitably cause tens of millions of mainland Chinese to lose their jobs and prompt a revolt.
something is Happening though, apparently there's been an immense amount of malware caught in CIA honey pots from China, and yet the malware seems completely inert, which means that it's waiting for a certain time or action to be done. If it were a criminal group then they'd have tried to do something to gain money by now, so it's likely state funded hackers.
f) Taiwan's active duty military might be around 200k soldiers, but Taiwan has mandatory conscription which gives it a massive reservist force of 2.5 million it can potentially draw on in a crisis. g) We have recently seen just how effective modern naval drones can be against a conventional navy in the Black Sea, and Taiwan is most certainly taking notes. h) Taiwan isn't China's only major territorial dispute. The other big ones include the South China Sea, the border with India, and Russia's far east. While the SCS faces the same problem of US intervention and India is itself a major power on the rise, Russia is looking weaker than ever. If Russia loses in Ukraine and becomes destabilized, it's far east could very well become a much more appealing alternative target to satisfy the CCP's territorial ambitions, letting Taiwan off the hook. Russia's far east is also rich in resources that China desperately needs such as fossil fuels, minerals, and water that can't easily be sabotaged like a chip factory can. A destabilized Russia could fracture or simply be willing to cuts it losses rather than fight for the far east. The Russian far east would be a lot easier to subdue than fortified, prosperous and densely populated Taiwan, and wouldn't have any foreign allies coming to its aid. I) China's economy is stagnating and threatened by looming potential financial crises, and invasions and occupations are expensive. By the time China might be able to prepare an invasion force, it might not be able to financially support one in defiance of potential sanctions. J) The pace of military technology. China may have begun to catch up to the US but that narrowing of the gap isn't likely to last long. There are a bunch of major US defense procurement and force restructuring programs that are set to culminate around the end of the decade that will significantly bolster the US military's capability to counter China and other near peer threats after spending the last couple decades focused on counter terror operations. K) The war in Ukraine hasn't just made China rethink its own military plans. With the EU ramping up military spending, it will be better positioned to send its own aide to Taiwan in a future conflict, as well as take some burden off the US in protecting the European theater, freeing up its own resources for a potential conflict with China. L) Japan isn't the only country around China that is bolstering its military. South Korea is quickly becoming a major arms exporter and is strengthening military ties with the US and Japan. India is rapidly rising on the global stage to become a major military power, and as a regional rival to China it is participating in US led security dialogue to counter China. M) A conflict with Taiwan opens China up to other rivals making a move on their border claims. China's bases in the South China Sea would go from tolerated nuisances to legitimate targets for all the competing interests in the region that might want to get a leg up and stick it to China while its navy is distracted. With a million troops committed to Taiwan, China would be less capable of responding to India securing its claims to disputed territory in the Himalayas. Similarly, such an over-commitment of force might embolden rebellion in Tibet or Xinjiang if the invasion goes poorly. N) Corruption scandals in the PLA have forced China to reassess its military readiness. Conclusion: Unless Russia wins in Ukraine and goes on to threaten NATO directly as a distraction (or some other similar crisis pull away US attention in a big way like a war with Iran or North Korea), and/or the US presidential election goes badly and jeopardizes US commitment to defending Taiwan, then China has probably missed its window to invade Taiwan. If things go particularly poorly for Russia, China might just reprioritize completely and point its forces northwards.
There's a bit of a doubt about this, destroying a dam is internationally agreed to be a war crime. It is possible though that this may be a final effort, if Taiwan was on the verge of complete defeat.
It may be bad to strike dams But it would actually save more lives Chinas dams have led to the lower basins and the countries that reside in them to start drying out and losing their water. Destroying these dams would allow these countries to return to normal.@@malahammer
@@malahammer Taiwan is not recognized by the UN or the world as being a separate country to China ... 1China was ratified by the US and UN AFTER THE 2ND WORLD WAR ..
The countries of the world should worry about not being able to buy affordable and high-quality daily necessities, and then falling into an economic crisis of inflation. Many factories will enter a wartime state and switch to producing military supplies
@@bigbadwolf6256 There is no such a thing called " invasion". The American Civil War, North and South Vietnam, East and West Germany.... " invasion"? what a history class Truants
Minor corrections. The indigenous peoples of Taiwan didn't settle on the island 6000 years ago, they arrived on the island during the last glacial period, and were isolated by the rising sea level until 6000 years ago when they mastered sailing, and began migrating first back on to Asian mainland and became the ancestors, at least linguistically, of the Kra-Dai speaking peoples, and around 5000 years ago they began migrating southwards to the Philippines and the rest of SEA islands, and beyond to the Indian Ocean and the Pacific, as the ancestors of Austronesian speaking peoples. Also, Taiwan wasn't handed back to China as a Chinese territory after WW2. The ROC government was only tasked by MacArthur's General Order No. 1 to accept Japanese surrender and administer the island on the behalf of the Allied Powers. The ROC was also tasked to do the same in Northern Vietnam. However CKS immediately tried to illegally annex both places, and North Vietnam was able to get France back temporarily to kick out the ROC troops. Taiwan was much less fortunate and suffered a massacre after the 228 incident of 1947, and is illegally occupied by the ROC government in exile ever since.
Some of Taiwan’s territory such as Kinmen (Quemoy) and Matsu Islands were never ceded to Japan in 1895 by the Treaty of Shimonoseki only Taiwan and Penghu. Taiwan only controls these islands because of the Chinese Civil War and the communists inability to invade them. Those islands are in reality a part of Fujian Province.
@@Bk6346 The Taiwanese people never claimed to have sovereignty over Kinmen and Matsu. The ROC occupational government in exile does. When Taiwan gets international recognition for being a sovereign nation, the people there in Kinmen and Matsu should get to decide whether they want to be a part of a democratic Taiwan or return to China.
@@bh710717 Chiang Kai-shek himself did, twice, once in his own diary and the other time in a letter to his appointed governor of Taiwan, Chen Cheng. CKS acknowledged that before they can iron out a clause in the peace treaty with Japan, Taiwan is merely a trust territory and not sovereign territory of the ROC. This is what CKS’ wrote in his January 12, 1949 letter to Chen Cheng: 台灣法律地位與主權，在對日和會未成以前，不過為我國一托管地之性質，何能明言做為剿共最後之堡壘與民族復興之根據也，豈不令中外稍有常識者之輕笑其為狂囈乎。 Before a Sino-Japan treaty can be signed, the legal status and sovereignty of Taiwan is merely a trust territory to the ROC. How can we openly claim the island as our last stronghold of our anti-communist efforts, and the base for the revival of our race? Such open statement would only be derided as crazy talk from slightly more knowledgeable people both in and outside of China.
@@bh710717 most Chinese refuse this bullshit. Taiwan was a part of China during the Qing Dynasty from 1683-1895. That is why most Chinese say Taiwan is a part of China.
🇵🇭🇵🇭🇵🇭🇵🇭🇵🇭🇵🇭❤️🇵🇭❤️We Pilipinos will send our best marines to protect Taipei we have 300000 domestic workers there and my mums working there too❤🇵🇭❤️🇵🇭❤️❤️🇵🇭
China’s 1 child policy (which ended “recently”…5 or 10y ago?)…. The 20-30y military people are a product of that 1 child policy…. Those troops that get sent to Davy Jone’s Locker will leave a set of parents and two sets of grandparents without an offspring (or leave a family without the 2nd parent). Imagine the economic ramifications of missing a large number of 20-30y old in the work force and driver of econ by spending. The straights of Taiwan… imagine the cultural ramification of CCP can NOT recover the bodies. Chinese need the bodies back, not negotiable, culturally.
Yes. From what I recall, China's population is shrinking, and even though they are encouraging their citizens to start a family, it is not going so well because there is little economic opportunity for them nowadays. If they do go to war, the demographics may be the final nail in the coffin.
It is like attacking a castle which can strike back. Which countries among those mentioned will risk their people for the benefits of the US. Must have big balls to start a world war.
If war breaks out, USA will find all its Allie’s are cowards. They all intend for the US to fight for them if they are attacked. But they won’t fight for US or the others.
In fact, China doesn't even have the ability to invade Taiwan. But the United States is helping, and Korea and Japan are leading the way. In the rear, India, Australia, and the UK beat China. And Tibetan Uyghur Inner Mongolia will become independent.
So many experts thought Putin would never invade Ukraine until he actually did. They don't understand that dictators think and act differently from normal well-reasoned people.
Even if he does a cost-benefit analysis, does he get the information he needs to make valid one. He could choose to invade based on bad information provided by people who only tell him what he wants to hear.
I’m certain Xi can see how weak Putin has become by allowing himself to be embarrassed so easily by Ukraine with the wests help. Xi doesn’t want to lose his status the same way Putin has.
China is all about posture while U.S. technology, strategy and battle hardened experience is way ahead of China's tactics. Democracy will prevail together with alliance. World cannot live under Vader alike rule. Peace!
If China were to ever move on Taiwan, the first thing the U.S. and some number of other countries would do is formally recognize Taiwan as an independent nation instead of just de facto independent.
I think the first thing would be a blockade of Chinas critical shipping routes. The US probably wouldn’t declare de jure independence until 24-36 hours have passed to see what the will and fortitude of the Taiwanese people are. If they seem to be mounting the defense we anticipate, than they will be recognized independence.
China won’t be making a move in Taiwan. It’s already making a move on crippling the US. Taiwan will have no choice but to negotiate with China after the US is no longer as powerful
@@BuddyLee23 True. That would also kill China´s economic success story. The most important issue for China is stability. There are about 1.4 billion inhabitants in China and if those people start revolts after an unsuccessful invasion against Taiwan, then China would be in very big trouble. One should remember that the largest peasant revolts in history happened in China and if China become more unstable then there would be a chance for new revolts in mainland China.
And I highly doubt that Australia has a more powerful military than Germany. Not to mention we already know that Russia only has the second best military in Ukraine, so I foudbt its second best in the world
I think another factor in the equation would be India. I don't think they would stand idly by to allow the PRC to control more of the sea routes from the South China Sea to the Indian Ocean. Even the Philippines is very wary of such a scenario but has demonstrated that they are more willing to put more skin in the game. India's existential threat comes mostly from its neighbor to its east, Pakistan a proxy of China. A strong China means a strong Pakistan whose nuclear arsenal cannot be dismissed.
Xi could not afford to lose his power when his invasion fails. He would gain more fames or international power by playing a peaceful and constructive world leader role like he is playing now.
Look at rusha' now....putin is a total joke and the rushn' army is being laughed at the world over. They're effectively losing to tiny Ukraine, the second poorest country in Europe that didn't even have a military 3 years ago lol.
Personally I think China was planning to attack Taiwan after Russia took Ukraine, Mao invited Putin to the olympics, Putin didn't attack until after the Olympics were over (to stop it being Embarrassing for Xao to have him there as a guest whilst he was invading). Had Putin been successful Xao would have attacked, seeing the mess that Ukraine caused Russia Xao realised that trying to take Taiwan could go hugely wrong and cause him much more problems than the potential benefits. Similarly Taiwan and China's economies are significantly interlinked, invading Taiwan would destroy it and that would severely damage China's economy too - not something China needs right now.
You did well with your narrative 👏, if am to say, china should concentrate in making the lives of it's people better and form good relationship with other people in the world, war does not benefit anyone in the long run
@@lordhelmchen4645 By coincidence the Aircraft Carriers where doing maneuvering exercises out at sea. Before WW2, the Battleship was the main fighting flagship (like the Yamato or the Bismark). After most of the Destroyers, Cruisers, and other Battleships were destroyed during the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor the remaining Carriers would ultimately become the centerpiece flagship of todays Navy. Your welcome.
I lived in China for a long time. Just got back last year. This video is taking a western perspective and using western logic. Everything makes sense to not invade, however, the most important point is being missed…FACE. Anyone who has lived there knows exactly what I am talking about. Xi has stated that Taiwan will reunite with China. This has been a public comment. If they don’t follow through then this would be a huge loss of face for Xi and China. We know face but not the same way as they feel it in China. There is 4000 years of cultural history backing this trait. I hope that I am wrong and logic wins out…but my experience tells me that this isn’t ending well.
This is about way more than face lol. The Chinese are perfectly capable of throwing out face if it goes against their strategic interest. Also Xi did not set a deadline for reunification, like his predecessors.
You sound like a Westerner who spent enough time in China to understand that there are differences, but still does not really understand the nuances. China's brilliant at panto. It makes threats, but it does not follow through with them so long as certain lines aren't crossed. With the ascendancy of the DPP, China felt compelled to ratchet-up the rhetoric to save face domestically. The DPP, for their part, are pragmatic enough to know where to stop. After all, US support for Taiwan is contingent on Taiwan operating within the status quo. The Taiwanese themselves are pragmatic enough to support the status quo. It's unlikely that China would actually invade because it risks more than it gains if things go awry.
@@kevinc1200 Remember its pandemic policies? It crafted the worst imaginable set of responses, but its entire credibility on the line and then dropped them when it was obvious that it was unworkable. In the meantime, they simply fudged the numbers and made sure that official data conformed to the party's new line. Then, they made a lot of noise about other things in order to try to move on to another topic.
Taiwan was the only island the US bypassed on our way to mainland Japan in WW2. If we thought we couldn't take Taiwan then, China doesn't have a chance today.
No it didn't. The US ran a massive bombing raid across the island, forcing the active Japanese troops to evacuate. It was the US that secured the island which made it a US territory. My mother was a Formosan child at the time and told me about seeing the US bombers flying overhead the morning after a night of ferocious bombing. She also noticed that all the Japanese soldiers were gone and how the US ships sat offshore for 3 days -- making everyone there very anxious.
@@audreyandlinCompany In deference to your mother, Japan didn't leave Taiwan until Sept 1945. The US wouldn't lead an amphibious assault on the island, thus bypassing it. Of course, the US still bombed the island. They didn't want Japan to conduct uncontested raids from the island. Japan didn't abandon Taiwan just because we bombed them a bit. It was never that easy to take an island from Japan.
Taiwan was bypassed by the US due to political reasons, not military ones. Admiral Nimitz and the US Navy wanted to invade Taiwan and use it as a staging area to threaten the invasion of Japan or of Japanese held Manchuria. General McArthur and the US Army wanted to land in the Philippines to honor his promise to return and to show good faith to the Filipino people the USA would not abandon them. President Roosevelt chose the Army plan and authorized the Navy to go after Iwo Jima and Okinawa.
They could force a Taiwanese surrender (unless taiwan goes for mutual assured destruction, leveraging the three gorges dam). Ukraine has little in terms of industrial capacity nor tech, but is able to control the black sea. PRC has both, including the ability to seed the waters in the area with actual submarine kamikaze swarm drones. No navy currently really has counter to that. There is no underwater point defense. But the price would be insane. They cut themselves of the global market. Obviously Taiwan could counter this the same way. Making a actually invasion impossible. But Taiwan is even more susceptible to getting starved out, than mainland china.
I have to wonder at the time how much of that was assisting a fellow communist nation, and how much of it was China fearing perhaps the UN (and especially US) forces not stopping there?
Pretty much, almost every war The west has fought has been pure luck. Korea was a prime example. They almost lot it all and come very close to it in recent times
@@lonniemcclure4538 Not perhaps, it's 100%. It's for the same reason Russia won't let Ukraine join NATO, the same reason why US can't let Cuba have USSR nukes, the same reason why China won't let NK become US-led occupied land. It's geopolitics, as simple as that
I don't think they will ever invade Formosa. Just the military operation would be such a logistical nightmare. Compared with the Ukrainian war Russia is failing so bad at, invading Taiwan is far more difficult. Even if they succeed, they would be treated like a Pariah state with all the sanctions and stuff. They simply wouldn't be able to afford it. Also, currently they rely on their silicone just as much as we do (as is mentioned).
That's "silicon." They know they would get mauled invading Taiwan, and there is the elephant in the room: the PLA hasn't seen any significant combat since about 1975 when they got slapped around by the Vietnamese.
@@madmaxfzz True. But ‘Murca got ‘slapped around’ by Vietnam, Cuba, Nirth Korea and Lebanon - amongst others. But they still recovered in time to slap mighty Grenada* around in ‘83. So it can be done. Toodlepip. * Total population - 86,000; total armed forces - 43
@@robertcottam8824 - China lasted a month in Vietnam. The US was fighting there for over a decade. North Korea was at worse a draw, as South Korea still exists today. The biggest US problem isn't an inability to win, but "limited objectives", which is like tying both hands behind the back of the military.
That is at is narrowest point (and technically 21, not 20). At its widest, it is 150. I was curious what the average width is, but could not find an authoritative answer with a quick search.
The Qing Dynasty was Manchurian, not Chinese. China was a province of Manchuria from 1644 to 1912. Japan started its rule over Taiwan in 1895. Japan renounced Taiwan in 1952, at the end of the Western occupation of Japan and its territories. Taiwan has never been a part of China. In 1949, Chiang was merely a regional administrator, post the KMT arrival. Command over Japan under occupation was held by General MacArthur (US) and General Northcott (Australia). However, there remains the outdated affect of the ROC (Taiwan) 1949 Constitution. The UN Resolution (1971) referred to the legitimacy of China’s seat at the UN, expelling the “representatives of Chiang Kai-Shek). The CPC became the valid representatives of the PRC, but not Taiwan. Taiwan became a disconnected orphan.
The issue is that there is no off ramp for China for it's position. The official statement leaves no room for negotiation on Taiwan as a separate country. Without an off ramp this can only escalate.
In the case of your analogy, China is a semi made out of cotton candy. No matter what it impacts at the bottom of the hill, no matter the speed, it will cause little harm because it's just made out of cotton candy...
hes not touched on how the imports and exports could be stopped within seconds, and if they have no food and oil coming in, civil war would break out within days, if not hours. rice paper dragon
During a year spent in Taiwan in the 80s, I was astounded to see the busy main streets of Taipei _completely cleared_ of all traffic withing 5 minutes of the air raid sirens sounding for a drill, which they run every 6 months, IIRC. This is for the rapid deployment of the military. The Taiwanese have prepared for the Chinese every day since 1949. Respect. 👍🇦🇺
Maybe you should visit there again. Those discipline are long gone
@@janusjones6519 The _Taiwan News_ disagrees. Google *"Taiwan expands Wan An air raid drill simulating Chinese attack"*
Taiwan is the hell of pedestrian
I went to Chicago in 1986 and came back to Taiwan in 2016, sorry to tell you that Taiwanese are no longer united as a country and corrupted by DPP.
Nice to know that, that Taiwan is more ready than what little info we might get from rumour-mills on the internet or media.
However just because an invasion would be crazy doesn't mean they wont do it.
They won't need to invade. Taiwan will eventually fall thru internal politics.
They will. Then their equipment fails, followed by sheer incompetence that would make Russia blush
@@comicus6769You sure? Looks like China's barely holding on, considering that their economy is almost ready to freefall
@@comicus6769 LOL, new to a democracy, aren't you? Democracy may look chaotic, but it's much more stable than any authoritarian regime. Why? Because in a dictatorial regime, the supreme leader is critical. So much so that if anything happens to him, the system will be in chaos with internal fighting immediately. And it's not like controlled fighting in a democracy, we're talking about civil war of the sort. This is why in monarchy, when it changed hands to another family, the transitional period was always filled with blood. A dictatorial regime is quite similar. And Xi has no successor at all. If he did, everyone would know him already. Having a successor provides a peaceful transitional period if something happens to Xi. But this is not the case.
they wont
Read "The art of war". The highest form of the art of war is winning a war without fighting a battle.
That is CCP interpretation, from Maoism.
The original text said the best policy is to not have war in the first place.
我最近刚读了孙子兵法，孙子提出不战而胜的前提是强大的武装威慑力，纵横家的高明外交手段，对敌方压倒性的钳制
@@JohnJaneson In fact,the original text said before engaging in war, it's crucial to carefully consider all options,including political and economic factors.War becomes a necessary means when diplomacy reaches its limits.Following that, it's crucial to underscore"The highest form of the art of war is winning a war without fighting a battle".夫用兵之法，全国为上"
China is very patient and have very long plans in place lasting years and even decades. China is growing in power and influence and America is waning so its just a matter of playing time out.
Fart
Coming back next year to see how well this ages
You and me both 🤣
😂
China is gonna invade 😂
Count me in
You said the same thing last year and the year before that, and that....
War is wrong, no matter who initiates it, the injured are always civilians
So why Hamas begins war first?
I am Chinese. Like most other Chinese and Taiwanese, I don't want to see a war between China and Taiwan, because it is a war between compatriots without a real winner.
But if a war really breaks out between China and Taiwan, I think the main battlefield will not be in Taiwan, but in the southern islands of Japan and the islands where the US military is stationed in the western Pacific. In this war, China's goal is indeed to land and occupy Taiwan by force, but whether it can successfully control Taiwan depends more on whether it can suppress the support of the US military to Taiwan.
China's attack on Taiwan is aimed at paralyzing all political and military facilities in Taiwan, rather than plundering the economy and resources. But in any case, I think the biggest problem is how to evacuate civilians in the war zone. The people are the foundation of the government or political party. Neither China nor Taiwan should put civilians in the war zone. Therefore, I think both sides will consider the issue of civilians, making it difficult to start a war, or end the war early and turn to peace talks.
I think it is more likely that Taiwan takes over West Taiwan than vice versa.
Mainland massive casualties and global blockades
-> provinces protests
-> central authority collapsing
-> provinces reapplying to rejoin ROC administration
ROC will accept the rich southern provinces
@H : That’s like taking on all of China’s debt! :D
@@JohnJaneson Although thanks of decades of CCP led industrialization, there is gonna need to be a massive environmental clean up as China’s environmental problems are nothing short of a complete disaster.
We’re talking billions of dollars in just fixing the environment alone. plus millions more in rebuilding efforts, plus millions more in decommunization efforts, and then you have to deal with the declining population (although I think Taiwan is suffering from that too).
@@JohnJaneson Tibet can be free
When nursery school kids occupy the comments section that's how it looks like 😂😂😂😂😂😂
PLA seems really good at shadow boxing...
@Booz2020China's great at being a paper tiger, since their equipment is objectively less efficient than US
@Booz2020Said missiles that'll be duds?
@Booz2020missiles filled with water lol
It's nice that they are showing the West their plans everything Winnie the Pooh has a temper tantrum.
And parades...warning: war is not a parade.
Even if the US becomes less dependent on Taiwan chips, the rest of US allies will maintain that dependency for many ye a rs to come. Thus the US will still need to protect Taiwan.
Very big point! I haven't thought of that, but that is very true! 🤔
tsmc will not remain stagnant . as the us catches up they move further ahead .
It's not just about chips, if China takes Taiwan they control the sea trade routes in the Pacific. The U.S. and it's allies in the region will never let this happen.
@@ronblack7870 I never said it would become stagnant. What I am saying is that it will not be essential to the US economy. However, Europe and other US allies will be dependent upon Tiawan chip production for the foreseeable future.
Have you heard about the bill introduced by Biden's Act of Chips, which requires semiconductors to be manufactured in the USA?
If China can move a billion people back and forth across the country in 2 weeks at Chinese New Year every year using their civilian transportation networks, then they're not going to need a long period to send 1 million soldiers and supplies to the Fujian coastline. 'Experts' are greatly underestimating China's logistical networks if they think that an invasion of Taiwan is going to need a long buildup before it starts.
China could launch the full invasion next week if it chose. If they want to take the island before the US has a chance to react, they are going to do it by surprise.
Whether or not the invasion happens all depends on what is going on inside the head of one man in Beijing... without knowing what he is thinking, no one can reasonably predict the probability of this war.
Bottom line, you do “NOT,” wanna mess with America, & it’s Allies 😂we Stand up for Democracy!!!!!
How was Afghanistan and Vietnam?
US routinely attacks democracies and is currently supporting 5 totalitarian dictatorships across the world. Please, please consider not voting due to your criminal degree of ignorance.
TSMC's production machinery was recently confirmed to be able to be shut down remotely by the Dutch manufacturer. 😊
Imagine telling to do that to a company of another sovereign state. Only the USA (can) do that.
This makes it easy to blackmail and thus control vassal states.
@@hitthedeck4115 The Dutch company ASML makes the photolithography machines that produce the chips from the 3 nm and 5 nm wafers that TSMC cranks out. They basically have a corner on that market.
@@hallmobility Yes, but that's not the point. The point is that the USA can tell a company in another country to do X, Y, Z and both the company and the country bend over to the USA.
"If WWII had not happened, Taiwan would still be under Japanese control. Unfortunately this war did happen..."
Is the narrator suggesting that Japanese occupation was a good thing? Totally bonkers
ccp is not attacking anyone - how long do u think the parents of only children continue the fight? the parents will probably overthrow the government!!!
True. Or provinces will revolt and rejoin ROC.
the land issues today is a huge sore point betwen the central government and the provincial governments.
Their OIL supply could cut off... everything done... ?
Everyone forgets that Taiwan controls a bunch of tiny islands that China would definitely invade to tests the waters
You miss out the factors Peter Zeihan reports frequently, namely that cutting off China’s imports of foodstuffs and oil would be relatively easy leading to millions of civilian deaths.
I'd say china and Russia is not stupid, they have something in mind rather than show off
Usually a bully won’t abuse a smaller prey if it sees it’s muscular friend standing right behind it.
Mere conjecture on your part. BS is what you peddle.
Hey, that sounded good to me. What did you consider to be BS ?
CCP will not invade Taiwan, but use all other means to unify, my theory is slightly different.
xI knows he can't get into a situation like Russia is in Ukraine, but he has a different game plan in mind. With Russia weakened so much, now almost like a vassal state of Russia, xi and ccp are eying the Russian far east to gobble up (Manchuria) which was handed to czar in 1895 in a humiliating war. By annexing Russian far east and part of eastern Siberia that has the largest fresh water lake , Lake Baikul ccp can supply whole of NE china with fresh water not to mention all the mineral wealth that lies in Siberia. xi will continue to rattle the trinkets at Taiwan and the world but would not attack, he has set his sights on Russian Fareast, despite the panda hug he gave Putin recently.
Sorry, Chinese from the mainland didn't start coming to Taiwan until the 1400's not 6,000 years ago. Taiwan aboriginal people were here (probably South Pacific Islanders) before they the Chinese started immigrating here.
In the 1620s, China’s Fujian province tried to establish relationships with Dutch Formosa, but the contact was abruptly stopped by the Han Ming Dynasty.
We didn't agree to send money or equipment to Ukrain from Australia. But they did it anyway.
The US could also do something really damaging to China: "restore" diplomatic relationship with ROC, Taiwan and "all" privileges and obligations (i.e., the military treaty between ROC and the US) ONCE the invasion begins.
This still has yet to play out. China has not given up on absorbing Taiwan, and won't. The real question is: what would the U.S. do to stop an invasion, if much of anything?
It’s one thing for Russia to rely on Chinese imports after western sanctions but China relying on Russia is just not in the books. Taiwan is symbolic and globally important. China does not NEED Taiwan.
UN is a joke same as the UA-camr in this channel. 😂
I believe China is wise they had a plan you just had to wait for surprise time is on China time.❤️🇨🇳
no surprise that china will lose
@@mateuszpitala9458 You might not see the results because you might have already been blown away by a missile.
🤡🤡🤡
How would any American feel if the British interfered with the American civil war and prevented the North from prevailing. I think the North will never give up and one day take the South back. This would happen when the North was stronger than the British.
The fact that China surrounded Taiwan exactly one day after this video is mind blowing
I love all the military advisors in the comments 😂
As the UN speaker said, Taiwan is just a province of CHINA. This represents the view of the UN
It's theatre above all else. So long as Taiwan does not declare outright independence, China can simply switch the rhetoric on and off depending on the changing political tides in Taiwan. When the DPP are in the ascendancy, China can use maximum verbal firepower and grey zone tactics. When opposition parties are in the ascendancy, China can tone the verbal firepower down. Taiwan won't declare outright independence for several reasons. The first is that the Taiwanese themselves don't support it. The status quo works for them. That they might have references to the Republic of China is irrelevant in practical terms. Taiwan functions as its own country with its own system. Whether it's the Republic of China which, at this point, is only really Taiwan and a few islands that are "technically" a part of Fujian or the Republic of Taiwan is meaningless. The second is that the United States will only support Taiwan so long as it does not provoke a conflict. Declaring independence would be just that. China has bigger fish to fry.
I wouldn't count on them being too afraid to invade Taiwan. Xi has really tied his reputation to conquering Taiwan and will look weak within the CCP if he never follows through with it.
Taiwan is David the PRC is Goliath. We all know what happens in that story.
Chinese probably building a tunnel under the sea straight to Taiwan, invade them from underneath, and above.. Heard here first, and if your in Taiwan tell your people..
What about Taiwan destroying the three gorges dam if attacked?
From the CCP's perspective it is easier to just coexist.
1. Cross-strait trade and tourism exist
2. Any overt hostilities will result in sanctions and getting trade cut off at places like Malacca
3. Military fiascos will escalate dramatically and highlight the PLA's inability to conduct itself properly; "mysterious" jet shoot downs by American or Japanese SAMs will question whether the war should expand to include a wider theatre
4. Both the CCP and Taiwan know the One-China policy exists just for the domestic audience to project an image strength and unity; if they have to start fighting to prove it, then it will collapse because it isn't even a realistic, practical image.
5. It is way cheaper to have a larger paper army that looks cool, than a much smaller army that actually invests itself to an effective, organized combat force.
6. Numbers matter in attrition, and it is preferably if the mainland just use giant amounts of artillery and drones and missiles...but then what would you have left to conquer?
7. A pro-mainland Taiwanese party that shifts the popular sentiment towards reunification is the preferable way for the CCP to gain control of Taiwain...and again, it's hardly better than just the way things are now.
8. Let's say they push the button and invade: whatever is of any value to the CCP will be shipped elsewhere immediately. The CCP just sacrifices AT LEAST a million of their best males just to gain a hunk of land, filled with people who will hate them. It won't like like Hong Kong, it will be an insurgency forever like in Burma or the Phillipines.
9. I know people who are pro-CCP on the Taiwan issue: once they realize it will be like Ukraine, they aren't going to be so supportive of the mainland anymore. China knows that the overseas Chinese community will not take their side. Aid, intelligence, and lobbying will mostly lean towards Taiwan than otherwise.
10. At the end of the day, the One-China policy exists for purely ideological reasons, the issue is hardly touchy as Crimea.
TLDR the only time I can imagine the CCP actually attacking Taiwain would be in the form of
1. A power vacuum in Taiwan that leaves its military in tatters
2. Relations with US get THAT bad that they are abandoned
3. Xi loses his senses and orders the PLA to invade, but that means he's dumber than Putin
Although invading Taiwan is almost certainly would be bad for China, at the end of the day whether they decide to invade Taiwan or not comes down to the decision of just one man, Xi Jinping.
You are forgetting the US is blocking all high tech chips so stakes are higher for for China to get these
No, incorrect, Taiwan was part of Japan and only entrusted to China occupation by the Allies on 1945 to wait for later treaty, that is, San Francisco treaty on 1952, Japan only gave away the sovereignty of Taiwan but never give it to China.
Chinese diplomacy is not like that of the western. Thus, innvasion, not likely.
❤❤❤, no to war,, embrace Love and duty, and responsibility!! 😢😢😊
Not only that, but the electronic industry would be an initial target if they wanted to go to war.
Regarding the part at 2.18, it’s more accurate to say that the exiled Nationalist government held on to the claim to be the government of the whole of China, including Taiwan.
Exactly. Taiwanese businessmen and artists should never kowtow to China either. They can’t really hurt your country and you can make money without China’s influences.
English Channel crossing distance is 21 miles (32 km), NOT 100 miles (even not to the Normandy shores).
Closest distance between China and Taiwan is 100 miles (160 km).
From a Department of the Navy, Naval Historical Center: "The English Channel, nearly a hundred miles wide between Portsmouth, England, and the Normandy beaches, was a formidible military barrier". (Yes, either it misspelled "formidable" or someone transcribed it wrong).
@@lonniemcclure4538 - of course give you that from Portsmouth England it is some over 100 miles to the beaches of Normandy.
But 100 miles is in contrast the shortest distance from shore to shore China to Taiwan. Wile the shortest distance from shore to shore UK to France is 21 miles.
a load of craps in your claims that China is " chicken out " or " too scared "
I know something better, how USA is scared to get involved into Israel - Iran question
The entire world should recognize Taiwan as an independently country!!
Don’t talk about the whole world first, convince your country first. Does your country recognize Taiwan as a country?
@@LeonLoewenherz777 Taiwan has never held a referendum on independence or declared independence. 2022 survey found 1% wanted reunification, 30% wanted independence and the rest want to maintain the status quo. The recent Taiwan elections reflect these numbers because the DPP party which favors independence received 40% of the vote. Recognizing Taiwan as an independently country is like recognizing Quebec as a country. Taiwan has never officially declared independence.
@@binyu-kp3be i can change the whole world as much as i can change my country....
So whats the differnence?
@@LeonLoewenherz777 That will only lead to war. Because according to the Chinese Constitution, Taiwan’s independence requires reunification by force.
It's all about logistics, China can't cross the sea in significant numbers. Even the Nazi knew invading the UK would lead to huge amounts of loss and that is only 26 miles.
This is facts, logistics! Actually US mastered the arts of logistics
Plus the Chinese can't really swim that well.
@EzekielFunny I mean, they have a good logistics chains but it wasn't really put under a lot of stress for a very long time
They can cross the strait in massive numbers. Central media has shown how the BYD mega ships can carry tanks etc with high efficiency. China is all about dual use. The question is, how many ships Taiwan can sink. And you can be assured CCP will claim Taiwan sinks civilian cargo ships all while in fact it's PLA ships
@@vueport99the problem isnt China getting across the Strait.
It's doing it twice.
China being able to get resupply ships to the frontlines of the war zones and resupply it's troops/ships/equipment would be almost impossible once the fighting starts
Unless it’s a guaranteed victory they won’t invade. They’re bullies, all about projection.
To be fair, it would be stupid to invade without the chance to take it over.....
Calling them bullies is a bit childish - the US does the very same to secure their interests.
I agree....it must be 100% sure success. Must NOT be like UKRAINE-RUSSIA conflict.
Must be that PH Japan and SOKOR not to get involved.
Must be AUSTRALIA NOT to get involved. And most of ALL.
....Indo-Pacific Command must NOT get involved.
Xi finds that easy? Then go ahead. Let's rock and roll and see if Xi's army are immortals.
😂😂😂😂😂😂
They'd rather Taiwan just surrender without a fight
I'm not a CCP worshipper at all, but we viewed many nations that way throughout history, and a lot of the times, it bit us in the rear end.
@@dcc70 china could turn out like russia and need Taiwan to surrender without a fight lol
Simple answer: CCP saw Russia struggle in Ukraine. The CCP would be ousted if they failed to take Taiwan.
@Booz2020 TSMC 😂❤👍👍
The funny thing is, Taiwan claims China. So China invades Taiwan. CCP fall. Taiwan re takes China.
Yup...Xi and Putin met at the olympics...Putin tolk him it would be over in a week...
vice-versa: They keep the tension high > aka one of the best way to unify people is by having an enemy (rally around the flag). Taiwan's female president is actually very supportive on America's support for Ukraine because to her ~ showing determination is very important to prevent aggressors from every attempting to "take 2 step forward and 1 step back" because that 1 step gain will cost them more than just a leg.
@@logician3641 Xi + Putin = Pooh- Xi or Pu-Xi 😹
Main reason is they don't want the world to see there not the military power they tell the world they are.
Maybe they do not have the need nor wish to go to war, unlike the USA whose economy is dependent on wars (and not very good at it). China is Taiwan’s biggest export market.
@@Bae-w6u What an enligthened take right there, " MuH USa 15 DePenDanT on WaR 111!!!!1111 "
I think nato is actually loosing badly n i mean badly right now agaist 1 coutry with 20 percent of there force funny
@@paulshirtliff5972 Are you delusional or something ? NATO is not fighting anybody right now.
Or you mean with ruSSia ? Where ruSSia lost some 500K dead + wounded without NATO even showing up.
The Chinese see what corruption does in the russian military, if the chinese administration thinks there is no corruption in their military then I think Mr. Xi is even more delusional !!!
XI knows his military is below standards.
Just like putting knows.
The fact that the Global Firepower Index still lists Russia as nr. 2 is beyond me..
Quantity is easier to determine than quality and effectiveness. The Russian had without a doubt a LOT of military material.
Luckily they had no good plan how to use it.
Nuclear weapons
Then you get a chance to change the record books for Russia. Russia, without a doubt is the worst military in the world seriously. They are tactic is blunt. Trauma doesn’t work. Can’t work never will work.
I was wondering who the forces were behind the operation of this youtube channel, due to the similarity of it's analysis. Thanks for clearing up a big mystery for me...
Russia is literally fighting NATO in Ukraine. 2nd, 4th, 3rd doesn't matter, they are in a battle with NATO. If the Taliban can beat NATO, why not Russia?
Points you omitted:
a) Comparing such an invasion to D Day, the Strait is four times wider than the English Channel.
b) Unlike D Day, the Chinese could not hide an invasion fleet. As we've seen in Ukraine, both sides have almost perfect aerial intelligence on each other making a surprise attack impossible.
c) China is totally dependent on oil and coal imports to keep the lights on. So, all Taiwan's allies have to do is impose a temporary blockade and the CCP would be on its knees within a month.
d) China is facing demographic collapse due to the low birthrate. It simply cannot afford to lose a million men in the Straits. The longer Taiwan remains independent the worse the situation is for the CCP. Those Tiger Moms won't let their sons die for Xi Jinping's ego.
e) Lastly, China's economy is very sensitive to trade sanctions. These would inevitably cause tens of millions of mainland Chinese to lose their jobs and prompt a revolt.
something is Happening though, apparently there's been an immense amount of malware caught in CIA honey pots from China, and yet the malware seems completely inert, which means that it's waiting for a certain time or action to be done. If it were a criminal group then they'd have tried to do something to gain money by now, so it's likely state funded hackers.
finaly someone realized than anphibiouswarfare is a pain in the a,,,
Lol how would they impose a blockade? What a muppet
f) Taiwan's active duty military might be around 200k soldiers, but Taiwan has mandatory conscription which gives it a massive reservist force of 2.5 million it can potentially draw on in a crisis.
g) We have recently seen just how effective modern naval drones can be against a conventional navy in the Black Sea, and Taiwan is most certainly taking notes.
h) Taiwan isn't China's only major territorial dispute. The other big ones include the South China Sea, the border with India, and Russia's far east. While the SCS faces the same problem of US intervention and India is itself a major power on the rise, Russia is looking weaker than ever. If Russia loses in Ukraine and becomes destabilized, it's far east could very well become a much more appealing alternative target to satisfy the CCP's territorial ambitions, letting Taiwan off the hook. Russia's far east is also rich in resources that China desperately needs such as fossil fuels, minerals, and water that can't easily be sabotaged like a chip factory can. A destabilized Russia could fracture or simply be willing to cuts it losses rather than fight for the far east. The Russian far east would be a lot easier to subdue than fortified, prosperous and densely populated Taiwan, and wouldn't have any foreign allies coming to its aid.
I) China's economy is stagnating and threatened by looming potential financial crises, and invasions and occupations are expensive. By the time China might be able to prepare an invasion force, it might not be able to financially support one in defiance of potential sanctions.
J) The pace of military technology. China may have begun to catch up to the US but that narrowing of the gap isn't likely to last long. There are a bunch of major US defense procurement and force restructuring programs that are set to culminate around the end of the decade that will significantly bolster the US military's capability to counter China and other near peer threats after spending the last couple decades focused on counter terror operations.
K) The war in Ukraine hasn't just made China rethink its own military plans. With the EU ramping up military spending, it will be better positioned to send its own aide to Taiwan in a future conflict, as well as take some burden off the US in protecting the European theater, freeing up its own resources for a potential conflict with China.
L) Japan isn't the only country around China that is bolstering its military. South Korea is quickly becoming a major arms exporter and is strengthening military ties with the US and Japan. India is rapidly rising on the global stage to become a major military power, and as a regional rival to China it is participating in US led security dialogue to counter China.
M) A conflict with Taiwan opens China up to other rivals making a move on their border claims. China's bases in the South China Sea would go from tolerated nuisances to legitimate targets for all the competing interests in the region that might want to get a leg up and stick it to China while its navy is distracted. With a million troops committed to Taiwan, China would be less capable of responding to India securing its claims to disputed territory in the Himalayas. Similarly, such an over-commitment of force might embolden rebellion in Tibet or Xinjiang if the invasion goes poorly.
N) Corruption scandals in the PLA have forced China to reassess its military readiness.
Conclusion: Unless Russia wins in Ukraine and goes on to threaten NATO directly as a distraction (or some other similar crisis pull away US attention in a big way like a war with Iran or North Korea), and/or the US presidential election goes badly and jeopardizes US commitment to defending Taiwan, then China has probably missed its window to invade Taiwan. If things go particularly poorly for Russia, China might just reprioritize completely and point its forces northwards.
China has been stockpiling for ages, it could outlast a blockade
Not to mention that China’s 3 gorges dam is reachable by cruise missile.
There's a bit of a doubt about this, destroying a dam is internationally agreed to be a war crime. It is possible though that this may be a final effort, if Taiwan was on the verge of complete defeat.
It may be bad to strike dams
But it would actually save more lives
Chinas dams have led to the lower basins and the countries that reside in them to start drying out and losing their water.
Destroying these dams would allow these countries to return to normal.@@malahammer
@@malahammer Taiwan is not recognized by the UN or the world as being a separate country to China ... 1China was ratified by the US and UN AFTER THE 2ND WORLD WAR ..
@@malahammer War crime? Where is that law?
It was a drill and they even said that lmao you people are slow.
China depends on trade. What happens to the trade if they go to war?
The countries of the world should worry about not being able to buy affordable and high-quality daily necessities, and then falling into an economic crisis of inflation. Many factories will enter a wartime state and switch to producing military supplies
@@cityhunterhf You are right about that still the invasion would be a failure.
Ask Russia, Germany was trying to buy its oil and gas until it was shamed into stopping by the rest of EU.
@@bigbadwolf6256 There is no such a thing called " invasion".
The American Civil War, North and South Vietnam, East and West Germany....
" invasion"? what a history class Truants
@@cityhunterhf high quality Chinese products hahaha I guess China's problem is that it is still dependent on foreign countries in terms of technology
Xi using his best Lord Farquaad voice speaking to PLA soldiers before the invasion:
"Some of you may die, but it's a sacrifice I am willing to make."
Yes Lord Farquad 😂
Lord FartJinpingpooh!
Minor corrections. The indigenous peoples of Taiwan didn't settle on the island 6000 years ago, they arrived on the island during the last glacial period, and were isolated by the rising sea level until 6000 years ago when they mastered sailing, and began migrating first back on to Asian mainland and became the ancestors, at least linguistically, of the Kra-Dai speaking peoples, and around 5000 years ago they began migrating southwards to the Philippines and the rest of SEA islands, and beyond to the Indian Ocean and the Pacific, as the ancestors of Austronesian speaking peoples.
Also, Taiwan wasn't handed back to China as a Chinese territory after WW2. The ROC government was only tasked by MacArthur's General Order No. 1 to accept Japanese surrender and administer the island on the behalf of the Allied Powers. The ROC was also tasked to do the same in Northern Vietnam. However CKS immediately tried to illegally annex both places, and North Vietnam was able to get France back temporarily to kick out the ROC troops. Taiwan was much less fortunate and suffered a massacre after the 228 incident of 1947, and is illegally occupied by the ROC government in exile ever since.
most chinese refuse this fact
Some of Taiwan’s territory such as Kinmen (Quemoy) and Matsu Islands were never ceded to Japan in 1895 by the Treaty of Shimonoseki only Taiwan and Penghu. Taiwan only controls these islands because of the Chinese Civil War and the communists inability to invade them. Those islands are in reality a part of Fujian Province.
@@Bk6346 The Taiwanese people never claimed to have sovereignty over Kinmen and Matsu. The ROC occupational government in exile does. When Taiwan gets international recognition for being a sovereign nation, the people there in Kinmen and Matsu should get to decide whether they want to be a part of a democratic Taiwan or return to China.
@@bh710717 Chiang Kai-shek himself did, twice, once in his own diary and the other time in a letter to his appointed governor of Taiwan, Chen Cheng. CKS acknowledged that before they can iron out a clause in the peace treaty with Japan, Taiwan is merely a trust territory and not sovereign territory of the ROC.
This is what CKS’ wrote in his January 12, 1949 letter to Chen Cheng:
台灣法律地位與主權，在對日和會未成以前，不過為我國一托管地之性質，何能明言做為剿共最後之堡壘與民族復興之根據也，豈不令中外稍有常識者之輕笑其為狂囈乎。
Before a Sino-Japan treaty can be signed, the legal status and sovereignty of Taiwan is merely a trust territory to the ROC. How can we openly claim the island as our last stronghold of our anti-communist efforts, and the base for the revival of our race? Such open statement would only be derided as crazy talk from slightly more knowledgeable people both in and outside of China.
@@bh710717 most Chinese refuse this bullshit. Taiwan was a part of China during the Qing Dynasty from 1683-1895. That is why most Chinese say Taiwan is a part of China.
日本人である私は台湾の現状は大日本帝国が招いた出来事であると深く反省しています。
しかし、台湾の住民のほとんどが中国への統一でも完全な独立でもなく現状維持を望んでいる。
台湾に実際に住んでいる住民の意思を第一に考えるのが1番だと思います。
All respect to Japan .. ❤🇯🇵
As HongKong-Chinese... we still stand with Taiwan with plenty of reasons...
-1949 social credits
🇵🇭🇵🇭🇵🇭🇵🇭🇵🇭🇵🇭❤️🇵🇭❤️We Pilipinos will send our best marines to protect Taipei we have 300000 domestic workers there and my mums working there too❤🇵🇭❤️🇵🇭❤️❤️🇵🇭
Omg that is true! I forgot about the Filipino workers in Taiwan! 🤔 Wow.
You also have workers in Hong Kong and Macau.
"Making a lot of noise" is a very traditional Chinese military tactic.
The Red, White and Blue makes sense if referred to France instead of Russia.
Rattling the Sabre
PLA don't have guts invade 😅😅😅
@@hemanthkumar8435 taiwan wants Talks 😂
Empty tin cans are noisy. They wanted to be humiliated again like in the Korean war. Never learned.
Then there's the small fact of China having almost *zero* naval experience or tradition.
Why would China invade one of it's own Provinces?
Taiwan must be free and independent, admitted to the U.N and other world bodies
China’s 1 child policy (which ended “recently”…5 or 10y ago?)…. The 20-30y military people are a product of that 1 child policy…. Those troops that get sent to Davy Jone’s Locker will leave a set of parents and two sets of grandparents without an offspring (or leave a family without the 2nd parent).
Imagine the economic ramifications of missing a large number of 20-30y old in the work force and driver of econ by spending.
The straights of Taiwan… imagine the cultural ramification of CCP can NOT recover the bodies. Chinese need the bodies back, not negotiable, culturally.
It will also accelerate the demographic problem they face now.
Yes. From what I recall, China's population is shrinking, and even though they are encouraging their citizens to start a family, it is not going so well because there is little economic opportunity for them nowadays. If they do go to war, the demographics may be the final nail in the coffin.
Very astute analysis.
@@rickw3243 how? its literally a terrible take. You think China will care about the economic impact of the DEMOGRAPHICS in full mobilization? 😂😂😂
Soon the U.S will be missing a large amount of 20-30 year old men. A draft will be in effect soon.
Because if china attacks tiwan, its gonna end up fighting tiwan, filipines, Australia, india japan south Korea and usa
in you dream
It is like attacking a castle which can strike back. Which countries among those mentioned will risk their people for the benefits of the US. Must have big balls to start a world war.
If war breaks out, USA will find all its Allie’s are cowards. They all intend for the US to fight for them if they are attacked. But they won’t fight for US or the others.
@@stevestev8162india will take back Tibet aksai Chin
In fact, China doesn't even have the ability to invade Taiwan. But the United States is helping, and Korea and Japan are leading the way. In the rear, India, Australia, and the UK beat China. And Tibetan Uyghur Inner Mongolia will become independent.
Taiwan can make it .. hang on , you are wiser and smarter .. 🙏☝️
Taiwan is a true member of UN. China would never risk sanctions and global isolation.
Taiwan is not a member of UN. Not even an observer.
This assumes Xi does a cost-benefit analysis.
Yep. Putin sure didn’t.
So many experts thought Putin would never invade Ukraine until he actually did. They don't understand that dictators think and act differently from normal well-reasoned people.
@@advancetotabletop5328 Ofcourse he did. He just turned out to be wrong.
Even if he does a cost-benefit analysis, does he get the information he needs to make valid one. He could choose to invade based on bad information provided by people who only tell him what he wants to hear.
I’m certain Xi can see how weak Putin has become by allowing himself to be embarrassed so easily by Ukraine with the wests help. Xi doesn’t want to lose his status the same way Putin has.
China is all about posture while U.S. technology, strategy and battle hardened experience is way ahead of China's tactics. Democracy will prevail together with alliance. World cannot live under Vader alike rule. Peace!
Thanks for Sharing ❤ 👍👏 From Sydney Australia 🇦🇺 🇵🇭
If China were to ever move on Taiwan, the first thing the U.S. and some number of other countries would do is formally recognize Taiwan as an independent nation instead of just de facto independent.
I think the first thing would be a blockade of Chinas critical shipping routes. The US probably wouldn’t declare de jure independence until 24-36 hours have passed to see what the will and fortitude of the Taiwanese people are. If they seem to be mounting the defense we anticipate, than they will be recognized independence.
China won’t be making a move in Taiwan. It’s already making a move on crippling the US. Taiwan will have no choice but to negotiate with China after the US is no longer as powerful
That will stop the invasion in its tracks.
Maybe but the usa has invested more taiwan then Ukraine
@@BuddyLee23
@@BuddyLee23 True. That would also kill China´s economic success story. The most important issue for China is stability. There are about 1.4 billion inhabitants in China and if those people start revolts after an unsuccessful invasion against Taiwan, then China would be in very big trouble. One should remember that the largest peasant revolts in history happened in China and if China become more unstable then there would be a chance for new revolts in mainland China.
Taiwan was never under Chinese rule. The Qing Dynasty [1644-1912] was a Manchurian dynasty. China was itself colonized by the Manchurians
So Taiwan history is changed by you. Chinese who settled in Taiwan after 1949 are not Chinese. What a joke.
@@johntang4108 They not, they all _hans_
China chickened out because they suddenly remember that they haven't won a single war in the past...
I think has decided to feed the more 4 billion chinese ist because their economy is almost hitting bottom...
They did,
Korean War says hello. The USA and UN forces captured Pyongyang and reached the Yalu River but were driven back when the Chinese entered the war.
@ronnieraptor they tried b intimate others. Tried Vietnam, India n now Philippines. Just Big mouth with Threats!
On that list of flags I think you got the Australian and New Zealand flags confused.
And I highly doubt that Australia has a more powerful military than Germany. Not to mention we already know that Russia only has the second best military in Ukraine, so I foudbt its second best in the world
I think another factor in the equation would be India. I don't think they would stand idly by to allow the PRC to control more of the sea routes from the South China Sea to the Indian Ocean. Even the Philippines is very wary of such a scenario but has demonstrated that they are more willing to put more skin in the game. India's existential threat comes mostly from its neighbor to its east, Pakistan a proxy of China. A strong China means a strong Pakistan whose nuclear arsenal cannot be dismissed.
Yes
those sea routes go voa singapore too. easy to immeditaley stop oil and food imports, ad all exports. they would fall in days
Xi could not afford to lose his power when his invasion fails. He would gain more fames or international power by playing a peaceful and constructive world leader role like he is playing now.
Look at rusha' now....putin is a total joke and the rushn' army is being laughed at the world over. They're effectively losing to tiny Ukraine, the second poorest country in Europe that didn't even have a military 3 years ago lol.
How to lose 😂😂, taïwan is not Ukraine, if u know taïwan a lot , u will know it just take 1 day then taïwan come back to china
@@dpelpal Russia is very much winning the war right now.
@@blooopzz You mean the war inside Russia or in Ukraine?🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
I don’t think they’re scared I think they’re hiding their time and waiting for a better opportunity.
Personally I think China was planning to attack Taiwan after Russia took Ukraine, Mao invited Putin to the olympics, Putin didn't attack until after the Olympics were over (to stop it being Embarrassing for Xao to have him there as a guest whilst he was invading). Had Putin been successful Xao would have attacked, seeing the mess that Ukraine caused Russia Xao realised that trying to take Taiwan could go hugely wrong and cause him much more problems than the potential benefits. Similarly Taiwan and China's economies are significantly interlinked, invading Taiwan would destroy it and that would severely damage China's economy too - not something China needs right now.
Mao sent invites from the afterlife?
Amazon would then go bust, as most of the stuff on sale is made in China, so noone would want to list stuff from there.
🐔🇨🇳🐔🇨🇳🐔🇨🇳
Mao?huhuhu..
Having a Biden moment eh ?
You did well with your narrative 👏, if am to say, china should concentrate in making the lives of it's people better and form good relationship with other people in the world, war does not benefit anyone in the long run
From the straits, to the sea
Taiwan will always be free
From the Strait to the sea
Taiwan will be ruled under PRC
To the ocean, not sea, and strait, because there is only the Taiwan strait.
@@landongsi Clever chap to discern and correct my English
@@ankHank-fs1zrin to dream 🙊
@@johnlongcop8512
already in the making😁
You know, that's what the U.S. thought of the Empire of Japan until Pearl Harbor.
And as history shows, Japan would have been wise to fear.
they knew they were coming or did you never asked yourself why the carrier were alone far off without the other ships?
Pretty sure Japan surrendered
@@lordhelmchen4645 By coincidence the Aircraft Carriers where doing maneuvering exercises out at sea. Before WW2, the Battleship was the main fighting flagship (like the Yamato or the Bismark). After most of the Destroyers, Cruisers, and other Battleships were destroyed during the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor the remaining Carriers would ultimately become the centerpiece flagship of todays Navy. Your welcome.
@@dazz4851 Japan didn't have nukes.
Calm, factual analysis of a lot of variables - thanks.
Just a global bully
there are a few of those. the chines do it with economics, the US with economics and military
“Mainland” China!
No no, you meant “West Taiwan”!
I know, I know. -1000 social credit score. Boohoo.
I lived in China for a long time. Just got back last year. This video is taking a western perspective and using western logic. Everything makes sense to not invade, however, the most important point is being missed…FACE. Anyone who has lived there knows exactly what I am talking about. Xi has stated that Taiwan will reunite with China. This has been a public comment. If they don’t follow through then this would be a huge loss of face for Xi and China. We know face but not the same way as they feel it in China. There is 4000 years of cultural history backing this trait. I hope that I am wrong and logic wins out…but my experience tells me that this isn’t ending well.
This is about way more than face lol. The Chinese are perfectly capable of throwing out face if it goes against their strategic interest. Also Xi did not set a deadline for reunification, like his predecessors.
Correct. It'll happen, more of a question of when.
You sound like a Westerner who spent enough time in China to understand that there are differences, but still does not really understand the nuances. China's brilliant at panto. It makes threats, but it does not follow through with them so long as certain lines aren't crossed. With the ascendancy of the DPP, China felt compelled to ratchet-up the rhetoric to save face domestically. The DPP, for their part, are pragmatic enough to know where to stop. After all, US support for Taiwan is contingent on Taiwan operating within the status quo. The Taiwanese themselves are pragmatic enough to support the status quo. It's unlikely that China would actually invade because it risks more than it gains if things go awry.
@@kevinc1200 Remember its pandemic policies? It crafted the worst imaginable set of responses, but its entire credibility on the line and then dropped them when it was obvious that it was unworkable. In the meantime, they simply fudged the numbers and made sure that official data conformed to the party's new line. Then, they made a lot of noise about other things in order to try to move on to another topic.
Those 4000 years of dealing with 'losing face' also means they've had 4000 years of perfecting 'saving face'.
Taiwan was the only island the US bypassed on our way to mainland Japan in WW2. If we thought we couldn't take Taiwan then, China doesn't have a chance today.
No it didn't. The US ran a massive bombing raid across the island, forcing the active Japanese troops to evacuate. It was the US that secured the island which made it a US territory. My mother was a Formosan child at the time and told me about seeing the US bombers flying overhead the morning after a night of ferocious bombing. She also noticed that all the Japanese soldiers were gone and how the US ships sat offshore for 3 days -- making everyone there very anxious.
@@audreyandlinCompany In deference to your mother, Japan didn't leave Taiwan until Sept 1945. The US wouldn't lead an amphibious assault on the island, thus bypassing it. Of course, the US still bombed the island. They didn't want Japan to conduct uncontested raids from the island. Japan didn't abandon Taiwan just because we bombed them a bit. It was never that easy to take an island from Japan.
Taiwan was bypassed by the US due to political reasons, not military ones. Admiral Nimitz and the US Navy wanted to invade Taiwan and use it as a staging area to threaten the invasion of Japan or of Japanese held Manchuria. General McArthur and the US Army wanted to land in the Philippines to honor his promise to return and to show good faith
to the Filipino people the USA would not abandon them.
President Roosevelt chose the Army plan and authorized the Navy to go after Iwo Jima and Okinawa.
@@StrawHat83 Abandoning a place and not being able to defend that place sort of ends up in the same scenario.
They could force a Taiwanese surrender (unless taiwan goes for mutual assured destruction, leveraging the three gorges dam). Ukraine has little in terms of industrial capacity nor tech, but is able to control the black sea.
PRC has both, including the ability to seed the waters in the area with actual submarine kamikaze swarm drones. No navy currently really has counter to that. There is no underwater point defense.
But the price would be insane. They cut themselves of the global market.
Obviously Taiwan could counter this the same way. Making a actually invasion impossible. But Taiwan is even more susceptible to getting starved out, than mainland china.
Why do you show video of the Washington state capitol building when discussing U.S. government policy?
I was wondering what that building was.
Nobody thought they would cross the Yalu River either. Almost cost the west the Korean War.
I have to wonder at the time how much of that was assisting a fellow communist nation, and how much of it was China fearing perhaps the UN (and especially US) forces not stopping there?
Pretty much, almost every war
The west has fought has been pure luck. Korea was a prime example. They almost lot it all and come very close to it in recent times
@@lonniemcclure4538 Not perhaps, it's 100%. It's for the same reason Russia won't let Ukraine join NATO, the same reason why US can't let Cuba have USSR nukes, the same reason why China won't let NK become US-led occupied land. It's geopolitics, as simple as that
china are far too dependent on imports and exports, and those would be halted in seconds
@@LoscoeLad You assume the party cares about the wellbeing of its people.
You didm't mention India, member of the QUAD. India is another factor. Get with it.
India will say we are neutral like they always do..sadly.
@@JuneBuggJrlol not in this case😂 china is our only enemy state.. and also we have some occupied land to liberate
@@HimanshuMahajan-zn3nq Really? Pakistan?
I mean do you live in a hole or just have no access to real news?
@@dailyrant4068 comment above mine mentioned China..and pakistan is irrelevant as its now a chinese vessel state.
I don't think they will ever invade Formosa.
Just the military operation would be such a logistical nightmare. Compared with the Ukrainian war Russia is failing so bad at, invading Taiwan is far more difficult. Even if they succeed, they would be treated like a Pariah state with all the sanctions and stuff. They simply wouldn't be able to afford it.
Also, currently they rely on their silicone just as much as we do (as is mentioned).
Yup, that is the gist of the truth.
That's "silicon." They know they would get mauled invading Taiwan, and there is the elephant in the room: the PLA hasn't seen any significant combat since about 1975 when they got slapped around by the Vietnamese.
@@madmaxfzz
True. But ‘Murca got ‘slapped around’ by Vietnam, Cuba, Nirth Korea and Lebanon - amongst others.
But they still recovered in time to slap mighty Grenada* around in ‘83.
So it can be done.
Toodlepip.
* Total population - 86,000; total armed forces - 43
即使你生活在22世纪，但对中国的认识还停留在17世纪
@@robertcottam8824 - China lasted a month in Vietnam. The US was fighting there for over a decade. North Korea was at worse a draw, as South Korea still exists today. The biggest US problem isn't an inability to win, but "limited objectives", which is like tying both hands behind the back of the military.
It would be easy to move PLA troops to Taiwan if only Qin Shi Huang extended The Great Wall to Taiwan Island.
One mistake is you said the British Chanel is 100 miles. It’s only 20 which means it’s 5x further
That is at is narrowest point (and technically 21, not 20). At its widest, it is 150. I was curious what the average width is, but could not find an authoritative answer with a quick search.
The Qing Dynasty was Manchurian, not Chinese. China was a province of Manchuria from 1644 to 1912. Japan started its rule over Taiwan in 1895. Japan renounced Taiwan in 1952, at the end of the Western occupation of Japan and its territories. Taiwan has never been a part of China. In 1949, Chiang was merely a regional administrator, post the KMT arrival. Command over Japan under occupation was held by General MacArthur (US) and General Northcott (Australia). However, there remains the outdated affect of the ROC (Taiwan) 1949 Constitution.
The UN Resolution (1971) referred to the legitimacy of China’s seat at the UN, expelling the “representatives of Chiang Kai-Shek). The CPC became the valid representatives of the PRC, but not Taiwan. Taiwan became a disconnected orphan.
The issue is that there is no off ramp for China for it's position. The official statement leaves no room for negotiation on Taiwan as a separate country. Without an off ramp this can only escalate.
Official statements can change over time.
@@tomriley5790 Only by force. Wang Yi already labeled Lai's position as a betrayal to Chinese people and civilization. That's a dead end position.
Exactly. It's a face thing. The PRC cannot be expected to act rationally where Taiwan is concerned.
What statement? Taiwan doesn’t claim to be independent either. They are China.
In the case of your analogy, China is a semi made out of cotton candy. No matter what it impacts at the bottom of the hill, no matter the speed, it will cause little harm because it's just made out of cotton candy...
Now I understand what a paper dragon is. Imagine a paper dragon playing with fire, who will get burned.
hes not touched on how the imports and exports could be stopped within seconds, and if they have no food and oil coming in, civil war would break out within days, if not hours. rice paper dragon
Korean War says differently. And China has nukes today
我只能說，中國與西方社會觀點不一樣，封閉的政治體系甚至讓習近平看不清真實情況，我認為最能使他們不敢冒進的主因，是對中國人的控制程度，以及共產黨的權威與穩固，而共產黨最擅長，也是最可能的進攻方式，是使用間諜滲透，運用親中的台灣人造成台灣社會對立，藉此由內部攻破台灣，這也是國民黨被中共擊敗的主因
Personally, i dont want world 3 but in the event im prepared to defend my home and suppoet military efforts by growing food and being self sufficient.
This next decade will be very interesting 😂