I love meeting an older person with a beautiful vintage watch who says they have been wearing it every day for the last 20-40+ years.... If I only had the same discipline :)
@@JasonCohenphoto I have, my goal was the Tudor BB58 but I didn’t get there. Chose my Seiko Willard for a daily wear. Just nice enough to hold my interest but not so nice that I ever worry about it, a sweet spot value wise for me. I’m fairly active so looking forward to the scars it accumulates. It is freeing Jason, I will say that 😂
One thing you used to hear people say is that they bought their Rolex and it cost them a months pay. I put this to the test by plotting Rolex RRP for steel sports models against the average monthly salary for a college graduate in the US from 1953 to today. What I found was really interesting. From 1953 to 1996 the RRP tracked just under the average salary. In 1996 the curve inverted with the RRP tracking just above the average monthly salary. In 2006 the RRP takes a hockey stick jump to present where it is now 2-3 times the average monthly salary. It was clear to me that Rolex no longer looks at the successful professional as their target audience. They are now looking to the top percentile as their target demographic.
Finance and credit has caused the price of everything to go through the roof. Now people who barely get by on minimum wage are driving around in £30-40k cars.
In 1980 I purchased a Rolex Submariner no-date for a little more than $600. In 2005 a similar model was going for over $6,000. Now, it's close to $10,000.
The difference will be a bit less when you account for inflation and built quality (bracelet, bezel, movement, lume...), but there still will be a huge gap called "marketing" (with the semi-nonsensical term "heritage").
You guys are both absolutely correct. The prices on watches and cars has gone absolutely out of control. We are talking about the same watches and the same cars.
15 years ago, my dad bought a 4 year old Mercedes C-Class, top spec Sport Edition with 55k miles for £11,000. An equivalent now (which would also be of worse build quality) would be over £20,000.
Cars are slightly different, they have much more technology in nowadays, much of it required by law, which bumps prices up significantly, plus the global chip shortage which has created genuine scarcity.
Until people quit paying these prices then this won’t change unfortunately- voting with your dollar is your power and if you spend obscene money then watch brands will oblige
Money launderers and hype sellers have unfortunately taken control of the market. They have created a new gold rush in the watch market. Same thing has happened in the high art market. People are looking to conceal or park money in hard good assets and they think watches will hold their value over time. We will see.. hopefully a good recession will wipe them down to size. But once a item reaches a certain high price it usually has the potential to stay there or reach it again. It's a shame , and it's out of control..same as the car market
@@rabajdajr3001 that’s a god point I didn’t consider, I love my Rolex I own at the same time I’m endlessly frustrated with them on how they run the business and most certainly know that bad actors are driving this out of control and they do not care
In the early 1990’s I purchased my first luxury watch used but as new Rolex Datejust two tone diamonds on the hour markers with the jubilee bracelet for $2600 Canadian dollars, after about 8 years of daily wear the bracelet was badly stretched and wanted to replace it. The price to replace the bracelet was $4500 OUCH! I decided to sell the watch and purchased a brand new Omega Seamaster 300 professional in 2002 for $1800 Canadian. Honestly the mid tier watches are where the value is. You can get fantastic watches for under or around $1000 specially on the secondary market. Now a days brand name is just to expensive. 😊😊😊
That’s what we call the curve of diminishing return,it’s basically a curve you can draw that’s equivalent to price and quality,if you buy a $5 watch and a $50 watch the difference will be crystal clear and the quality might be 10x the $5 one but between 500 and 5000 i don’t think it’s going to be clearly 10x better
Same here. I couldn’t now afford my Omega Seamaster 300m. I bought it in around 2001 for $1150 in the US. At the time, it was a shed load of money, I felt sick and was sweating throughout the ‘will I won’t I’ buying process. At that point, it was the most expensive non-essential purchase I’d ever made. 20 years later and the same watch is what….£5,500. I now feel so fortunate to have been able to buy my watch when I did. Prices now are insane.
$1,150 in 2000 is equivalent in purchasing power to about $2,025.94 today, an increase of $875.94 over 23 years. Looks like the watch prices have way passed normal inflation rates. That's why I bought a Monta Skyquest
I've been collecting watches for 50 years this year. Bought my first watch with my own money, a Timex Marlin, in 1973, a hand wound watch, in the middle of the quartz crisis. I was twelve years old. I've seen many changes. This is one particular change I don't care for. Thanks, flexers.
I must commend you on this video. You are absolutely spot with your analysis. I've been collecting watches since 2000 and I have to say I've never known the hobby in which I'm passionate about being in such a horrendous state.
There are a lot of people and dealers buying and hoarding "investment" watches, but the market is softening and I see ads for sales and discounts frequently...along with massive unsold inventory. As interest rates remain high, there's an increasing (interest and opportunity) cost to holding unsold inventory, and it there will come a time that people stop buying these watches at above MSRP because they will be depreciating assets once again.
When the cheap and superior quartz technology was developed, was also when the argument of paying more for a better mechanical watch to have a better tool went out the window. When paying more gave you less in forms of functionality the mechanical watch became a luxury, as they could no longer be marked as a necessary everyday tool. Prices of mechanical watches in general haven't necessarily been "reasonable" ever since. Though I do agree, the watch industry is slowly bringing mechanical watches up to new heights of being a luxury and a poor value proposition. PS. I do like mechanical watches as a nerdy mech. engineer. But I also would not argue they are better from a functional standpoint than a quartz, nor do I think many would.
You said it yourself, if you'd had the 20k you'd have probably bought the Speedy! As long as enough people are willing to pay the ridiculously inflated prices they will just keep increasing. Plenty of other great brands out there at sensible prices (Sinn, Formex, Christopher Ward to name just 3), who don't rely on huge marketing budgets to hype their products.
Wow,someone actually calling a spade a spade. Better than rest of the watch media wagon trying to justify the unrealistic cost. Micro brand pricing 2x(twice) ,should where it should be at when accounting for 'luxury' .
It's a common money laundering tactic, which has taken place now in the watch market. Same thing going on in the high art world. International business groups are looking to trade or conceal funds thru the trade of hard goods. This is how it works. Some business or business group has obtained a lot of funds on their business account, wether legal or stolen. They need to transfer this wealth into tangible money. They can't buy property without putting it on the books, same with vehicles or businesses. So they choose hard good items. Gold or silver bars, or jewelry diamonds watches. This new wealth explosion has inflated the market. They don't mind buying a patek from a wholesaler for 120k. They know the bottom end trading price is probably 100k. So they buy the watch full price, take it to a smaller buyer and sell it for 100k cash. Money comes out of the account buys the watch then is sold for cash or trade. They then pocket or conceal that cash. They lose 20 percent as a transfer fee. Do this ten times a year , and they have offshored a million in cash. Happens in much bigger scale.
Hence the boom in Homage watches. With the amount they are selling they are investing in high quality equipment and techniques which are making them extremely good, and very affordable.
Not only are the prices getting silly, if you have set enough aside to buy a watch it’s not possible to walk in & buy what you want if it’s a Rolex. Many ADs expect you to “build a relationship”, in other words buy more stuff from them just to get what you want all the while the price of what you want goes up. I was supposedly “put on the list” for a Explorer 1 back in 2018… never heard from the AD (WoS). I then gave my details to have my name on the Waitlist in Nov 2021 for a Oyster Perpetual (WoS again but different AD)… checked 5 months later only to find my details were on the system but not on the wait list. They fixed that but it’s been well over a year waiting & the price has gone up a number of times (and I have bought Tudors & Cartiers, all stuff wanted, from WoS). Yeah I could have “gone grey” but I refuse to pay well over the retail price for the benefit of flippers / grey dealers. I think I might go and get an Omega instead & just be done with it
Yes, it's getting stupid. I've bought my last couple that I really wanted (Omega Aqua Terra, and Speedster Professional) I won't be buying any more. My Black Bay Red cost £2.5k 4 years ago brand new from Goldsmiths, they're now £3.6 - £3.7k after 4 years. Even for watches that maybe don't hold value too well, if they're increasing that rapidly, you can hold them for 10 years and still make back more than you paid which is insane (though I do not buy watches to sell or for investment).
In the past, companies that overcharge for an of the shelf movements like Hublot and Panerai got hit very hard. Now, it seems like this is the trend. On the good side, there are still a number of honest brands that are well priced and provide better experience too. Like imo: JLC, Grand Seiko, Christopher Ward, Nomos, Glashutte Original. In addition, these can be found at even better deals at the secondary market. Lovely topic and discussion. Thank you, gentlemen.
Great point. I will also add Longines and Sinn. If people can bother to tear their eyes away from Rolex and Omega there are plenty of other affordable choices.
A lot of what you said here makes sense. What makes matters worse is that most Rolex dealers are completely insufferable, and the experience dealing with them is degrading. Personally I have a fairly full collection and have no interest in "impulse purchases" anymore, when that means starting at $7-$10k from a major manufacturer. There are many watches I'd like to try, but my guess is reselling most watches will become increasingly difficult as the prices are too high and represent an opportunity cost for something arguable more valuable, like a luxury European holiday, a year of tuition for a child/grandchild at (Canadian) university, etc...
They've been a novelty since smartphones came out. Now with the prevalence of social media, investment bros, and constant "inflation" affecting everything, the prices have been climbing sharply in recent years and it doesn't look like they will slow down. Combined with the watchmaker shortage, I currently find the long-term sustainability of the industry questionable.
I don’t know. I think the smartphone made mechanical watches viable again. My phone is my accurate time reference and I can check my watch against it any time I like so I know if it’s running a minute fast or whatever. I don’t need quartz accuracy on my wrist but there are times when it’s rude or inconvenient to consult your phone
I would like to add that in my humble opinion, Casio is one brand that doesn't jack up the prices unreasonably just because the market is still willing to pay for it.
I think they are asking slightly the wrong question. It's not "Why does charge so much?" The more interesting question is: "Why are customers prepared to PAY so much?" Much more curious (particularly when there are so many very reasonably priced alternatives)
2 points: if you stick to old brands, they get more expensive, and it sucks, especially if you like heritage, because the watch world has changed and evolved and even devolved, but (point 2) if you look for modern watches, you can straight up buy unbelievably great watches for between 1 and 2 grand. That's a lot, but affordable for many people. Rolex and similar brands were affordable a few decades ago, but not anymore. Oh well, who cares? Don't stay stuck in the past, look for newer watches that are equal or better in quality but significantly more affordable. And this whole collecting rubbish is such a waste of time. You don't need a bunch of watches you won't actually wear. Just save up for your favourite watch and wear the hell out of it. That's what made our grandparent's watch special: they wore the pissing thing for 50 years, and they had it fixed when it broke down. You don't need 20 watches. You arguably only need like 2 or 3: your favourite, one to wear when you don't want to damage your main (or when you visit London), and another to wear for everything else. There are countless watches I like, but genuinely only a few I truly love and would spend thousands on. Quality always beats quantity, and I'm proud to own an expensive watch, a cheap Casio, and a 3rd for a little variety. If you're a millionaire, do what you want, and if you're not, stop wasting your money on lux products you don't really need. Just pick the small handful and be happy with your absolute favourite watches. Don't divvy up your love for watches on 20 pieces, 18 of which you probably (be honest) only bought because of hype or a fleeting emotion, and you'll inevitably end up selling it to buy some other stupid piece of crap you don't want or need.
Gents I just subscribed. This is a lovely discussion (about a terrible problem). My dad would roll in his grave to know what I’ve spent on watches. In 1968 he bought a Seiko 5 and he wore that watch to the end of his days. I still have it. My first “luxury” watch was a Seamaster 300. It was $1500 and I wore it for 21 years until the service would have cost more than it was worth. I replaced it with its modern replacement model that was almost $4k. I’ve been on the “waitlist” for a Sub date and it’s been made clear that it won’t be sold to me. I have ordered a $1700 homage watch to see if I can scratch that itch and tell Rolex to take a hike. I’m fortunate to have what I have. Maybe I should sell down to a reasonable level and just be done with these vultures.
I've set myself a limit on what I'm willing to pay for a watch. I'll perhaps adjust it for inflation, but that's it. The world has plenty of fools who believe a product is more attractive just because it's more expensive/exclusive. I'm not joining them.
A very good discussion video Richard and Anthony. I'm also a grumpy old man (GOM) and have been lucky that I managed to get a few watches some years ago that today have increased in price to a point such that some others who may have been able to afford them a few years ago cannot justify the expense today. As Anthony mentioned there comes a point where a price rises to a point where it is no longer value for money. I agree that the positive is that other brands are getting more attention but this is a double edged sword. On the plus side watch enthusiasts can purchase a time telling marvel without breaking the bank today but a corresponding negative is that as demand for the more affordable watches increases brands may well increase prices and so it goes full circle. Unfortunately my crystal ball has gone cloudy due to unforeseen circumstances but if I was going to call out a future brand who's prices may well escalate it would be Longines as not only do they produce some fine pieces but many have movements that are exclusive to the brand even though they may be modified versions of ETA and Valjoux. Dare I say it but the brand may well be looking to occupy the area that Omega sat in some years ago. I would be happy to be wrong with any of the above as it's all speculation. Many thanks for sharing.
As someone who is turning into a "grumpy old man" more and more every day, I whole-heartedly agree with everything that you have said, and with so many of the comments I have read. I will never have an income high enough to afford a "super luxury" watch. That doesn't make me bitter or upset, it is a fact of my life and choice of occupation. I am quite content knowing that I will never own a Rolex, but do admire them from afar. Buy what you like, but make sure you can afford it. So many people live by the "buy now and pay later" mentality, they end up going broke just to have an expensive timepiece. Those brands are taking advantage of today's society, and as long as people will pay these outrageous prices, they will continue to do it. I do think that "homage watch" popularity is only going to increase as these other brands become so unreasonably high in price.
I think the only brand worth buying nowadays is Tudor. You get an amazing watch for a very competitive price compared to other offerings currently on the market.
The submariner date I bought NEW in March 2003, cost £2,600. According to the Bank of England inflation calculator, it should now cost £4,400!!! 🤣😂🤣😂 You couldn’t make it up (ffs!😳)
Rolex have become naff imho and they did it to themselves; people with those kind of budgets should be jumping on Grand Seiko while they can still afford them. Personally I'm saving for a sapphire sandwich Speedy but the price keeps increasing and I'm close to just forgetting about it and getting a Sinn 356 Sa instead as a companion to my Seiko Willard I think I'd be happy enough. If I ever get the Speedy I'll then never think about watches again. There's nothing worse than feeling ripped off and I suspect that the mechanical watch industry may come to rue the day it forgot what happened to it in the quartz crisis.
According to the Bank of England’s Inflation Calculator a product costing £1000 in 1994 should cost £1969 today. So £6500 is WAY over an inflationary rise.
Great video and an honest assessment of the current market. The main question is - at what point does the watch collecting community say "enough is enough"? Well, we seem to have gotten away in recent years from the general rule of "if its in the display case its up for a discount". That rule also goes for Rolex in the rare time you might see a ladies DJ or OP up for sale in the display. Any piece in a display case should be up for an instant discount of >15-20%. Collectively we should never be paying full prices on any non-hype piece just to be able to get on "the list" for the good stuff.
The opportunity costs of owning a watch collection is ludicrous unless you are a multi-millionaire. A One to three watch collections should be the norm. Spending more than 1 to 3 months salary on a watch once every ten years is actually certifiable. Watches aren't a replacement for a brokerage or retirement plan.
I concur. I bought a new Speedmaster in ‘07 for $3700. Of course 2007 money isn’t the same as 2023 money, but you’re telling me that’s an almost $7000 watch now!?
what happened is we're feeling the repercussions of losing the class war, the rich have gotten far too rich and the rest of us just haven't, there's enough of them who can afford any price no matter how stupid it is and the rest of us just can't and the companies don't care. This will extend to all things until we do something.
Luxury products go up more than just inflation, because it also is a matter of people's purchasing power relative to their societal station. A luxury producer will not want their product to be "cheap", it should be at the limit of what ordinary folks can afford (sometimes way beyond, think patek). If the general consumer becomes so wealthy that a rolex or a speedmaster is regarded as cheap, then it loses its status as luxury. Hence all luxury products typically go up in price more so than just inflation.
Steel tool watches should be priced at $2,000.00. That is fair. To be priced higher, the case must be made of a noble metal. That introduces intrinsic value to the existing brand/model value. In reality, the brand can demand a wee bit more profit on the brand/model side of the ledger. At the price level of $10,000.00, the case material's intrinsic value has to be the dominant percentage of the price. Otherwise, we have a situation where Rolex is gouging the customer with a $7,500.00 steel tool watch.
Same debate as the cheapest cars available today are about double the price of a decade ago... I'm gifted not to love luxury, classic dress/dive watches but I'm feeling more "safe" in the 600-1200euro range like Sturmanski ,Vostok Europe or micro brands. If I cannot afford a luxury watch the bling isn't visible for me but then again, IMO it's lame to pay a high tag because of branding and heritage. If I'd really wanted a luxury watch I'd pick a Breitling Super Ocean 2nd hand but then again, it's not worth to be gun pointed for it. Getting more keen on matt titanium cases lately...
Yes, prices are absolutely out of control. I bought my first decent watch, an Omega Seamaster 300m for £925 in 2006. A year later, the Casino Royale Planet Ocean 45.5 mm for around £2k. I'm not hung up on Autos, I'm fond of Citizen and have 5 of them. I picked up an Atomic Time one for £300 about 15 months ago £480 now. 6 months ago, a Christopher Ward Sealander which I got for £535 with the £100 discount voucher. £685 now and no discounts to be had. As far as London is concerned, I'd be scared to wear my yellow G-Shock Casioak there! Well done guys for this one, this needed to be said, price gouging is getting beyond a joke. I'd love a new auto Speedmaster as I'm a huge space programme fan, I've been to Kennedy a number of times, stood on Launch Pad 39a, seen a Shuttle launch, I can afford a Speedy, but at over £6k I don't want to afford it, it's irresponsible.
Great conversation guys I agree it’s ridiculous but at the same time have 2 pieces totaling $15K retail so I’m also part of the problem. Thinking of staying put where I’m at until the market settles after the coming recession.
Great video, as always. I'm probably one of the few who are indifferent. Going to Wind-up Watch Fair recently, I feel we're in a great time to enjoy watches. So many creative, high quality watches are available to us to buy at very reasonable prices. Prices that if you used that price time adjustment wizard would probably crazy inexpensive 30 years ago. It's the brand addiction that riles people up. Take the brand addiction away, and there's a wealth out there to enjoy.
I love the honest take on our beloved hobby/obsession.. Good job sers! (Btw funny thing is I wear a Formex Essence as a daily driver and my next watch will be probably a Tudor BB 54)
Although true, the Burlington arcade is a total joke, having said that You could argue money is all relative too, so average UK salary was apparently £13,700 vs your Airking £999 - 7.3% of earnings. Apparently 2023 salary average is £32k, airking at £6250, so 19% of earnings. So your argument holds true imo
That's the reason I have more and more doubts to buy a Seiko. Beautiful dials, but compared to upcomming brands, they are overpriced. Even a Seiko 5... Please make a video of 10 brands you think are still produce valie for the money...
Watch collection was a huge hobby for me but now I stopped because it’s too expensive.. now I moved towards other hobbies like photography…. I feel it was a good decision 😊
Good video...really talks to me. Im pretty much resigned to only being able to buy one more watch now....the prices are just oit of control. A year a go an aqua terra was 5k...now its just off 6k....that is crazy
@@davidcrandall4958 cool mate...what ever you say....keep going the way you are with the same sentiment in your heart....truly an awful way to live a life...all the best to you
I'm sure someone else already said this (I haven't read all the comments) but isn't the Tudor similar quality to what Rolex was in the 90's? I had a couple Rolex's in that period and they were not the same quality as today.
@@LittleBigPoet My point being that I can't afford something I don't want. People are desperate to get the Rolex name on their wrist, the actual products just aren't worth it.
This is why I have switched focus in my collecting journey and now focus on very high value for money watches. I genuinely believe that I get more enjoyment out of Casios, seikos, G shocks and a select number of microbrands then I do with the luxury brands. I think the consumer, social media culture does not help the issue. Im also sick of hearing brands like hodinkee preaching affordability over watches that 90% of the world could never afford in a lifetime. Rant over
The problem is, some brands are pricing in the 20-30% discount at retail. Thats why I like Tudor, Rolex and IWC--the price is more firm, less games being played. A lot of industries, not only watches, are moving from dealers and instead towards direct to consumer. Breitling has this problem--excellent watches, best boutiques around, but if AD will give me 25% off without me even asking, why would I purchase from the boutique or website?
Totally agree guys - when you look at brands like Monta, Formex and Ginault who are producing very well made watches for affordable prices - it’s becoming ridiculous. Maybe Monta and Formex should be some of the best watches on the market!
@@Jonnybravo6742 I own the Ginault OR2 and have a formex essence 39 on its way. I also own a Christopher Ward c60 Trident mark 3. It’s incredible what the smaller brands are making. Hope you enjoy the Monta and Silent service.
I've wanted a Submariner, but know I'll never be able to get one, and AD won't put me on a waiting list. Now it's ok for me. I have now found my microbrand, and enjoy my watches bought from them at a reasonable price and quality that is more than good enough for me.
Everyone wants to move upmarket these days. I've wanted a Speedy for about 8 years now. With the latest price increases this year, I can't justify it as a purchase anymore. Instead, I've started looking into less popular but higher-end manufacturers like Blancpain. There are some pieces on the 2nd hand market that while still expensive do offer more horology for the money.
Got a Orient Mako 2 for $140 with the blue sunburst dial, not exactly a Rolex but for the price of one Submariner i can build a whole collection that lasts a lifetime.
At the moment I can't even afford my casio f91 because I took my sister to mcdonalds as a way of saying sorry for farting on her head when she was watching tv. I am your core audience.
In this position at the moment where I would love a Rolex Explorer 40 but the cost is far too much for me, find myself looking at the Tudor Ranger but can’t pull the trigger as it’s not what I really want
Good vid guys: in 47th St in Manhattan I would estimate there are 15-20,000 used Rolexes (mostly subs/gmts/Daytonas/Explorers) 'do the math'. Across 40-50 shops. If they all agreed to take a 40%mark up, instead of 80-100%, they'd all make more money than they ever would (turnover v profit model) they'd drive the price down across the market by increasing supply and everyone would be happy. Instead Rolex are muscling in on the grey market and will, soon, be selling older versions of current models at higher prices than the MSP in their own ADs. Surely a form of madness?
I'm fairly new to this hobby and only recently dipped my toes into the higher (which means lower end for others), and I find that what budget watch meant a few years ago, doesn't mean budget now. I'm sure the same could be said for higher end watches. I'd hate to think what an entry level Rolex or Omega cost in ten years.
We are in a golden age of watches. There has never been more innovation, creativity in horology than there is today - and it's being driven by microbrands, and their ability to communicate directly to consumers. The watch world is generally so cringey and microbrands are where it is at.
Rolex 904L steel costs pennies. Yes it’s more expensive than 316, but the difference is insignificant. Note Omega were the first to experiment with 904L
There is a channel title; "Two Grumpy Old Men and Their Watches." Great discussion and all on point. I think the "elephant in the room" as it were are the Chinese and Middle Eastern markets. As long as they are purchasing +50% of the market and willing to pay AD prices we won't see a price correction. IMO.
Dead on accurate. Prices of watches and cars have gotten insanely out of control. Wife and I make a decent living, yet we still can't fathom paying today's prices for a watch or a car. A used Submariner 114060 for $11k? A Cadillac Escalade V for $200k? Eroded duplex homes with 2 bedrooms now cost $250k USD while normal detached houses with more than 3 rooms costs over half a million dollars. Heck, even a normal family car like a Toyota 4Runner now is about $50k. You used to be able to find incredible AMG Mercs or Porsches for $50k 10 years ago. It's left a sour taste for the watch hobby, I'm seriously considering selling Speedmaster 3861 and Heuer Carrera and just moving on to another hobby...even servicing costs ($500-$1000 USD) have come to cost as much as most new mid tier watches.
Back in 1999, in Finland we had marks as our currency. With 100marks, you could buy 12 beers, then head up to the nightclub, have a few beers more, go to the grill and buy yourself a hamburger meal as a night snack and take a cab ride home. As the our currency changed to Euro's ,100marks was something like 16-18euros. Now, twenty something years later, one can buy max three beers from any restaurant wit that money. Tops. So, my point is, as interesting subject as it is, you can not really compare prices from 90's with current time. Like, there's no point. Like you said, Air-King was a pricey but still affordable watch in the 90's, and it still is pricey, but also still affordable for a normal working class person.... with a little bit of saving up maybe, but still.
Great video guys. I just really got in to the hobby the last year or so and have quickly realized that I will never get into many of these brands because they are so expensive and they will only get further out reach each year.
The scary part is that people are paying these prices. I won't... for example, I really, really want a Rolex GMT Batgirl but I'm simply not prepared to pay the $15K that is required on the used market. Instead, I bought a Longines Zulu; this isn't "settling", the Zulu is an awesome timepiece. One day perhaps the Rolex will come down to RRP and then I'll reconsider.
I am turning 40 years old, bought a brand new JLC Reverso tribute (steel, monoface, time only) as my milestone watch, a couple hundreds shy from 10'000 CHF 🙄🙄🙄 I did it but things are getting pretty insane
I think high-end watch companies are headed for a Waterloo! They keep headed for more and more exclusive territory; meanwhile, microbrands are getting better and better. Let's be real, Christopher Ward is VERY close to if not equal to the quality being produced by the big brands at a fraction of the price. There's going to be a shake out in the microbrand space, but the ones left standing have a good opportunity to grow unabated. At some point, their trajectory intersects with the big boys, and people are going to say, "Hold on again, why would I pay that much for that, when I can get this for 30% as much!?" Rolex is a nice watch, but it's entirely made by machines! In the quantities they produce, there's not really any justification for their prices. 😢
I think your bang on with your comments, I also think it's the time of the independent watch makers to step up, I'm not a fan of rolex so owning one is not on my horizon, but they are definitely not worth the money or the long waiting time, I've just ordered a islander watch from long Island watches and the spec on it far exceeds what you would pay for the equivalent swiss watch with the same spec...
Watch inflation has rocketed in the last few years I brought my omega sea master full size fully automatic in 2003 for £1100 retail picked it up for £950 I wear it all the time but have got a weekend away coming up in London thinking of leaving it at home I’ve worn it all over the world and never thought about it London to today have spotters going round all the bars just to get you on the way out
The reason for these crazy prices is the behaviour of watch collectors has changed. Now days these so called collectors change (sell) their watches like they change their jocks. Lucky if they keep a watch for 6 months. They actually love the buying & selling of watches more than the actual watch it's self.
I 100% agree with your discussion. I have resigned myself to the fact I will never own a Rolex or some other luxury brands for that matter. Unfortunately, as with most things watch pricing will not come down. Companies such as Rolex know they have a premium product that people are willing to pay more for. Toss in their restricted manufacturing capacity and thanks to supply and demand we get prices that are higher than what I paid for my 2017 Ford Fusion. I used to work for a premium brand in a different industry and would sit in meets with the CEO working on pricing of product and parts and he would tack on 10-20% to the price because he knew he could. Companies exist to make money so I can’t blame them I just wish they realized they could make more money if they increased their capacity and lowered their price.
I love watches and I have a few. Over the last year, however, I have changed my position on them. I do not want a Rolex or Omega, Cartier or JLC - as I did. My grail watches have changed to Hamilton (more, I have one and want more), Seiko, Sinn and Laco. I simply don't see the value in the first set anymore. The fact that Rolex won't sell me a watch means I will never buy one. A Speedy is nice but not worth the price ., especially when I have to wind it in a collection. I'd love a Santos or a Reverso - and maybe I'll quartz them, not sure, but at $7-14K, nope. I truly believe there is more REAL value in the second set of my new "grails" than in the first. I may look into Longines and other well-certified pieces too, but north of $2500, watches loose interest for me now.
I remember buying my 18k Daytona at 23% discount available on the spot, like £9750 or some such. My 6263 big red was £15k. Were not talking decades ago
Spot on. Unfortunately, globally there are easily enough 'new middle class' able to afford the prices and most Swiss watch companies are constrained not by price, but by production capacity. Madness. The Ingenieur is the poster child of this phenomenon: obscenely over-priced. Brands that still offer value (different to 'cheap') and are likely to climb: Sinn and Parmigiani. Specifically the 356 chrono and Tonda GT time/date.
All going that way I’m afraid. JLC increases totally ridiculous.Bedrock Tudor ranges now £3k and above. Even the latest Longines Spirit issue over £4k. Oris prices heading upwards. Maybe some recent announced prices will mean the watches don’t make expected sales, but I don’t see list prices reducing ever.
This is why the last two watches I've bought have been a £500 Studio Underdog Watermelon and a £1k Christopher Ward The Twelve Icecream. There are so many watches I covet but will never own. I don't think the manufacturers care. If they double their prices they can loose half their potential customers and still make more money off those that can still afford them.
As a young watch enthusiast I really think this isn't a big of a deal. Omega etc just isn't affordable for me so that I could truly own one. I would be nervous to break it or that it get stolen. But so I can explore Microbrands and I definitely have more fun owning like 5 watches instead of one Rolex. Just because every Lawyer or Rapper own one doesn't mean that I have to have one too. There so many fun brands to explore, what Is definitely better than chop your arm of to afford a "premium" brand. So have fun to add your own experience and heritage to a watch you truly own from Mühle Glashütte, Damasko, Christopher Ward or whatever!
It’s the free market. The price will be whatever people are willing to pay. That’s it. If people stop buying three hand Rolexes for $8K+, the prices will go down. But they are still overpriced because the market has decided that a Rolex is an investment commodity now, not a wristwatch. Same thing with famous artwork. Why is a canvas smeared with paint worth thousands or millions? Because someone is willing to pay that much.
The watch industry and social media has succeded in not only persuading people that wristwatches are cool things to own, but one should have a collection of them. This has emboldened manufacturers to hike prices to frankly ridiculous levels, either for exactly the same model, or by repackaging it in some way (not necessarily for the better) and slamming yet another increase on it. For people who were into watches before all this kicked-off it's particulary galling, finding that the once affordable has now become the unaffordable. The bloggers and pundits have, almost to a man, have gone along with this with barely any protest. Many classic watches are now out of reach for real watch enthusiasts, and become the province of those with money to burn.
I could have bought last weekend a mechanical chronograph for £700 swiss made. Certina Chrono Diver with 300 metres water resistance. If it was in blue I would have bought it, it was black. The blue model is £1125.
Maybe we’re getting to a point similar to our grandparents where we just buy one watch and wear it for our life instead of having massive collections.
I love meeting an older person with a beautiful vintage watch who says they have been wearing it every day for the last 20-40+ years.... If I only had the same discipline :)
This is where I’ve ended up. I love hearing the stories of guys that have worn the same watch for decades. I didn’t get it at first but I love it now.
@@NexDim. have you been able to get down to just one?
@@JasonCohenphoto I have, my goal was the Tudor BB58 but I didn’t get there. Chose my Seiko Willard for a daily wear. Just nice enough to hold my interest but not so nice that I ever worry about it, a sweet spot value wise for me. I’m fairly active so looking forward to the scars it accumulates.
It is freeing Jason, I will say that 😂
@@NexDim. Good on you! You give me something to aspire to! Enjoy the heck out of it
One thing you used to hear people say is that they bought their Rolex and it cost them a months pay. I put this to the test by plotting Rolex RRP for steel sports models against the average monthly salary for a college graduate in the US from 1953 to today. What I found was really interesting. From 1953 to 1996 the RRP tracked just under the average salary. In 1996 the curve inverted with the RRP tracking just above the average monthly salary. In 2006 the RRP takes a hockey stick jump to present where it is now 2-3 times the average monthly salary. It was clear to me that Rolex no longer looks at the successful professional as their target audience. They are now looking to the top percentile as their target demographic.
MVP
Exactly.
Exactly, and Tudor has filled the gap
Exactly!
Tudor has done nothing of the sort!
Finance and credit has caused the price of everything to go through the roof. Now people who barely get by on minimum wage are driving around in £30-40k cars.
Not an impressive argument when one considers that that's roughly the price of your average low to mid tier car.
That's how much an average new car costs now so that doesn't mean much.
@@BabyJesus66but that’s the thing right there, their salary hasn’t changed according to the average car prices
In 1980 I purchased a Rolex Submariner no-date for a little more than $600. In 2005 a similar model was going for over $6,000. Now, it's close to $10,000.
The difference will be a bit less when you account for inflation and built quality (bracelet, bezel, movement, lume...), but there still will be a huge gap called "marketing" (with the semi-nonsensical term "heritage").
For those interested, $600 in 1980 is about $2210 in 2023. So even when adjusting for inflation, it has increased in price a crazy amount.
The price is increasing.
You guys are both absolutely correct. The prices on watches and cars has gone absolutely out of control. We are talking about the same watches and the same cars.
Actually,The cars and the watches are not as good as they were before!
15 years ago, my dad bought a 4 year old Mercedes C-Class, top spec Sport Edition with 55k miles for £11,000. An equivalent now (which would also be of worse build quality) would be over £20,000.
Cars are slightly different, they have much more technology in nowadays, much of it required by law, which bumps prices up significantly, plus the global chip shortage which has created genuine scarcity.
Until people quit paying these prices then this won’t change unfortunately- voting with your dollar is your power and if you spend obscene money then watch brands will oblige
Money launderers and hype sellers have unfortunately taken control of the market. They have created a new gold rush in the watch market. Same thing has happened in the high art market. People are looking to conceal or park money in hard good assets and they think watches will hold their value over time. We will see.. hopefully a good recession will wipe them down to size. But once a item reaches a certain high price it usually has the potential to stay there or reach it again. It's a shame , and it's out of control..same as the car market
I have said for ever, stop paying for labels and ALL items will come down. NIKE, ROLEX etc.
@@rabajdajr3001 that’s a god point I didn’t consider, I love my Rolex I own at the same time I’m endlessly frustrated with them on how they run the business and most certainly know that bad actors are driving this out of control and they do not care
Won't happen. The rich are always getting richer, so they will always have buyers. They don't care about the people who worry about the price.
In the early 1990’s I purchased my first luxury watch used but as new Rolex Datejust two tone diamonds on the hour markers with the jubilee bracelet for $2600 Canadian dollars, after about 8 years of daily wear the bracelet was badly stretched and wanted to replace it. The price to replace the bracelet was $4500 OUCH! I decided to sell the watch and purchased a brand new Omega Seamaster 300 professional in 2002 for $1800 Canadian. Honestly the mid tier watches are where the value is. You can get fantastic watches for under or around $1000 specially on the secondary market. Now a days brand name is just to expensive. 😊😊😊
That’s what we call the curve of diminishing return,it’s basically a curve you can draw that’s equivalent to price and quality,if you buy a $5 watch and a $50 watch the difference will be crystal clear and the quality might be 10x the $5 one but between 500 and 5000 i don’t think it’s going to be clearly 10x better
@@karvast5726 totally agree with you.
That's a really good and interesting example. Nearly double the price of the watch + bracelet, for just the bracelet!
Same here. I couldn’t now afford my Omega Seamaster 300m. I bought it in around 2001 for $1150 in the US. At the time, it was a shed load of money, I felt sick and was sweating throughout the ‘will I won’t I’ buying process. At that point, it was the most expensive non-essential purchase I’d ever made. 20 years later and the same watch is what….£5,500. I now feel so fortunate to have been able to buy my watch when I did. Prices now are insane.
$1,150 in 2000 is equivalent in purchasing power to about $2,025.94 today, an increase of $875.94 over 23 years. Looks like the watch prices have way passed normal inflation rates. That's why I bought a Monta Skyquest
I bought my SMP last August and since then its gone up in price twice, with no sign of stopping, its crazy!
I've been collecting watches for 50 years this year. Bought my first watch with my own money, a Timex Marlin, in 1973, a hand wound watch, in the middle of the quartz crisis. I was twelve years old. I've seen many changes. This is one particular change I don't care for. Thanks, flexers.
I must commend you on this video. You are absolutely spot with your analysis. I've been collecting watches since 2000 and I have to say I've never known the hobby in which I'm passionate about being in such a horrendous state.
Hamilton watches have doubled in price in the last 3 years
Khaki king auto was £365, now £720
My father bought one for £450 three years ago it is now £625, ridiculous.
Yet the quality hasn't gone up with it, rip
It's just not worth it!
And it sucks as a field military watch too as it has WR of only 50m …. Imagine a watch to be advertised as a fd watch / a military watch with 50m WR…
There are a lot of people and dealers buying and hoarding "investment" watches, but the market is softening and I see ads for sales and discounts frequently...along with massive unsold inventory. As interest rates remain high, there's an increasing (interest and opportunity) cost to holding unsold inventory, and it there will come a time that people stop buying these watches at above MSRP because they will be depreciating assets once again.
When the cheap and superior quartz technology was developed, was also when the argument of paying more for a better mechanical watch to have a better tool went out the window.
When paying more gave you less in forms of functionality the mechanical watch became a luxury, as they could no longer be marked as a necessary everyday tool. Prices of mechanical watches in general haven't necessarily been "reasonable" ever since. Though I do agree, the watch industry is slowly bringing mechanical watches up to new heights of being a luxury and a poor value proposition.
PS. I do like mechanical watches as a nerdy mech. engineer. But I also would not argue they are better from a functional standpoint than a quartz, nor do I think many would.
You said it yourself, if you'd had the 20k you'd have probably bought the Speedy! As long as enough people are willing to pay the ridiculously inflated prices they will just keep increasing. Plenty of other great brands out there at sensible prices (Sinn, Formex, Christopher Ward to name just 3), who don't rely on huge marketing budgets to hype their products.
That's my high end tier, Sinn, Formex. I will not pay more for a watch
Tudor, Hamilton ? They have good stuff.
Wow,someone actually calling a spade a spade. Better than rest of the watch media wagon trying to justify the unrealistic cost. Micro brand pricing 2x(twice) ,should where it should be at when accounting for 'luxury' .
It's a common money laundering tactic, which has taken place now in the watch market. Same thing going on in the high art world. International business groups are looking to trade or conceal funds thru the trade of hard goods. This is how it works. Some business or business group has obtained a lot of funds on their business account, wether legal or stolen. They need to transfer this wealth into tangible money. They can't buy property without putting it on the books, same with vehicles or businesses. So they choose hard good items. Gold or silver bars, or jewelry diamonds watches. This new wealth explosion has inflated the market. They don't mind buying a patek from a wholesaler for 120k. They know the bottom end trading price is probably 100k. So they buy the watch full price, take it to a smaller buyer and sell it for 100k cash. Money comes out of the account buys the watch then is sold for cash or trade. They then pocket or conceal that cash. They lose 20 percent as a transfer fee. Do this ten times a year , and they have offshored a million in cash. Happens in much bigger scale.
Hence the boom in Homage watches. With the amount they are selling they are investing in high quality equipment and techniques which are making them extremely good, and very affordable.
Not only are the prices getting silly, if you have set enough aside to buy a watch it’s not possible to walk in & buy what you want if it’s a Rolex. Many ADs expect you to “build a relationship”, in other words buy more stuff from them just to get what you want all the while the price of what you want goes up. I was supposedly “put on the list” for a Explorer 1 back in 2018… never heard from the AD (WoS). I then gave my details to have my name on the Waitlist in Nov 2021 for a Oyster Perpetual (WoS again but different AD)… checked 5 months later only to find my details were on the system but not on the wait list. They fixed that but it’s been well over a year waiting & the price has gone up a number of times (and I have bought Tudors & Cartiers, all stuff wanted, from WoS). Yeah I could have “gone grey” but I refuse to pay well over the retail price for the benefit of flippers / grey dealers. I think I might go and get an Omega instead & just be done with it
The Omega is technically a better watch.
Totally agree with this analysis. This has made me look at brands like Christopher Ward and Sinn. Maybe even Oris.
CW have put there prices up/got rid of the discounts. I think Oris is the one to watch.
Yes, it's getting stupid. I've bought my last couple that I really wanted (Omega Aqua Terra, and Speedster Professional) I won't be buying any more. My Black Bay Red cost £2.5k 4 years ago brand new from Goldsmiths, they're now £3.6 - £3.7k after 4 years. Even for watches that maybe don't hold value too well, if they're increasing that rapidly, you can hold them for 10 years and still make back more than you paid which is insane (though I do not buy watches to sell or for investment).
Not for long!
In the past, companies that overcharge for an of the shelf movements like Hublot and Panerai got hit very hard. Now, it seems like this is the trend. On the good side, there are still a number of honest brands that are well priced and provide better experience too. Like imo: JLC, Grand Seiko, Christopher Ward, Nomos, Glashutte Original. In addition, these can be found at even better deals at the secondary market.
Lovely topic and discussion. Thank you, gentlemen.
Great point. I will also add Longines and Sinn. If people can bother to tear their eyes away from Rolex and Omega there are plenty of other affordable choices.
My Rolex Submariner date was £150.00 in 1980 lol. From Pickett and Purser in Southampton. I still have the receipt …….🇬🇧
Good watch for the money back then, the marketing and peoples association with brands seem to have gone nuclear since..
@@Anirossa it’s all become too silly….and we all know it…..emperors new clothes syndrome….
A lot of what you said here makes sense. What makes matters worse is that most Rolex dealers are completely insufferable, and the experience dealing with them is degrading. Personally I have a fairly full collection and have no interest in "impulse purchases" anymore, when that means starting at $7-$10k from a major manufacturer. There are many watches I'd like to try, but my guess is reselling most watches will become increasingly difficult as the prices are too high and represent an opportunity cost for something arguable more valuable, like a luxury European holiday, a year of tuition for a child/grandchild at (Canadian) university, etc...
They've been a novelty since smartphones came out. Now with the prevalence of social media, investment bros, and constant "inflation" affecting everything, the prices have been climbing sharply in recent years and it doesn't look like they will slow down. Combined with the watchmaker shortage, I currently find the long-term sustainability of the industry questionable.
I don’t know. I think the smartphone made mechanical watches viable again. My phone is my accurate time reference and I can check my watch against it any time I like so I know if it’s running a minute fast or whatever. I don’t need quartz accuracy on my wrist but there are times when it’s rude or inconvenient to consult your phone
Yes! But there are some fantastic good value watches, I just bought a metal Casioak for £170 and it is brilliant 👍
I would like to add that in my humble opinion, Casio is one brand that doesn't jack up the prices unreasonably just because the market is still willing to pay for it.
I think they are asking slightly the wrong question. It's not "Why does charge so much?" The more interesting question is: "Why are customers prepared to PAY so much?" Much more curious (particularly when there are so many very reasonably priced alternatives)
Human Psychology is really the issue. Businesses are good at manipulating people and people are vulnerable to manipulation.
2 points: if you stick to old brands, they get more expensive, and it sucks, especially if you like heritage, because the watch world has changed and evolved and even devolved, but (point 2) if you look for modern watches, you can straight up buy unbelievably great watches for between 1 and 2 grand. That's a lot, but affordable for many people.
Rolex and similar brands were affordable a few decades ago, but not anymore. Oh well, who cares? Don't stay stuck in the past, look for newer watches that are equal or better in quality but significantly more affordable.
And this whole collecting rubbish is such a waste of time. You don't need a bunch of watches you won't actually wear. Just save up for your favourite watch and wear the hell out of it. That's what made our grandparent's watch special: they wore the pissing thing for 50 years, and they had it fixed when it broke down. You don't need 20 watches. You arguably only need like 2 or 3: your favourite, one to wear when you don't want to damage your main (or when you visit London), and another to wear for everything else.
There are countless watches I like, but genuinely only a few I truly love and would spend thousands on. Quality always beats quantity, and I'm proud to own an expensive watch, a cheap Casio, and a 3rd for a little variety.
If you're a millionaire, do what you want, and if you're not, stop wasting your money on lux products you don't really need. Just pick the small handful and be happy with your absolute favourite watches. Don't divvy up your love for watches on 20 pieces, 18 of which you probably (be honest) only bought because of hype or a fleeting emotion, and you'll inevitably end up selling it to buy some other stupid piece of crap you don't want or need.
Gents I just subscribed. This is a lovely discussion (about a terrible problem). My dad would roll in his grave to know what I’ve spent on watches. In 1968 he bought a Seiko 5 and he wore that watch to the end of his days. I still have it. My first “luxury” watch was a Seamaster 300. It was $1500 and I wore it for 21 years until the service would have cost more than it was worth. I replaced it with its modern replacement model that was almost $4k. I’ve been on the “waitlist” for a Sub date and it’s been made clear that it won’t be sold to me. I have ordered a $1700 homage watch to see if I can scratch that itch and tell Rolex to take a hike. I’m fortunate to have what I have. Maybe I should sell down to a reasonable level and just be done with these vultures.
The JLC Reverso has gone up around 40% in the last 18 months 😮
I've set myself a limit on what I'm willing to pay for a watch. I'll perhaps adjust it for inflation, but that's it. The world has plenty of fools who believe a product is more attractive just because it's more expensive/exclusive. I'm not joining them.
A very good discussion video Richard and Anthony. I'm also a grumpy old man (GOM) and have been lucky that I managed to get a few watches some years ago that today have increased in price to a point such that some others who may have been able to afford them a few years ago cannot justify the expense today. As Anthony mentioned there comes a point where a price rises to a point where it is no longer value for money. I agree that the positive is that other brands are getting more attention but this is a double edged sword. On the plus side watch enthusiasts can purchase a time telling marvel without breaking the bank today but a corresponding negative is that as demand for the more affordable watches increases brands may well increase prices and so it goes full circle. Unfortunately my crystal ball has gone cloudy due to unforeseen circumstances but if I was going to call out a future brand who's prices may well escalate it would be Longines as not only do they produce some fine pieces but many have movements that are exclusive to the brand even though they may be modified versions of ETA and Valjoux. Dare I say it but the brand may well be looking to occupy the area that Omega sat in some years ago. I would be happy to be wrong with any of the above as it's all speculation. Many thanks for sharing.
Really thoughtful, engaging discussion. Thanks both.
As someone who is turning into a "grumpy old man" more and more every day, I whole-heartedly agree with everything that you have said, and with so many of the comments I have read. I will never have an income high enough to afford a "super luxury" watch. That doesn't make me bitter or upset, it is a fact of my life and choice of occupation. I am quite content knowing that I will never own a Rolex, but do admire them from afar. Buy what you like, but make sure you can afford it. So many people live by the "buy now and pay later" mentality, they end up going broke just to have an expensive timepiece. Those brands are taking advantage of today's society, and as long as people will pay these outrageous prices, they will continue to do it. I do think that "homage watch" popularity is only going to increase as these other brands become so unreasonably high in price.
I think the only brand worth buying nowadays is Tudor. You get an amazing watch for a very competitive price compared to other offerings currently on the market.
Buy now for sure, scary to think what Tudor will cost in 5 years
@@ChrisVPlant That's of course something we have to take into consideration
The submariner date I bought NEW in March 2003, cost £2,600. According to the Bank of England inflation calculator, it should now cost £4,400!!! 🤣😂🤣😂 You couldn’t make it up (ffs!😳)
Rolex have become naff imho and they did it to themselves; people with those kind of budgets should be jumping on Grand Seiko while they can still afford them. Personally I'm saving for a sapphire sandwich Speedy but the price keeps increasing and I'm close to just forgetting about it and getting a Sinn 356 Sa instead as a companion to my Seiko Willard I think I'd be happy enough. If I ever get the Speedy I'll then never think about watches again. There's nothing worse than feeling ripped off and I suspect that the mechanical watch industry may come to rue the day it forgot what happened to it in the quartz crisis.
According to the Bank of England’s Inflation Calculator a product costing £1000 in 1994 should cost £1969 today. So £6500 is WAY over an inflationary rise.
Great video and an honest assessment of the current market. The main question is - at what point does the watch collecting community say "enough is enough"? Well, we seem to have gotten away in recent years from the general rule of "if its in the display case its up for a discount". That rule also goes for Rolex in the rare time you might see a ladies DJ or OP up for sale in the display. Any piece in a display case should be up for an instant discount of >15-20%. Collectively we should never be paying full prices on any non-hype piece just to be able to get on "the list" for the good stuff.
The opportunity costs of owning a watch collection is ludicrous unless you are a multi-millionaire. A One to three watch collections should be the norm. Spending more than 1 to 3 months salary on a watch once every ten years is actually certifiable. Watches aren't a replacement for a brokerage or retirement plan.
I concur. I bought a new Speedmaster in ‘07 for $3700. Of course 2007 money isn’t the same as 2023 money, but you’re telling me that’s an almost $7000 watch now!?
what happened is we're feeling the repercussions of losing the class war, the rich have gotten far too rich and the rest of us just haven't, there's enough of them who can afford any price no matter how stupid it is and the rest of us just can't and the companies don't care. This will extend to all things until we do something.
Yes it will?
EVERYTHING!
Luxury products go up more than just inflation, because it also is a matter of people's purchasing power relative to their societal station. A luxury producer will not want their product to be "cheap", it should be at the limit of what ordinary folks can afford (sometimes way beyond, think patek). If the general consumer becomes so wealthy that a rolex or a speedmaster is regarded as cheap, then it loses its status as luxury. Hence all luxury products typically go up in price more so than just inflation.
Steel tool watches should be priced at $2,000.00. That is fair. To be priced higher, the case must be made of a noble metal. That introduces intrinsic value to the existing brand/model value. In reality, the brand can demand a wee bit more profit on the brand/model side of the ledger. At the price level of $10,000.00, the case material's intrinsic value has to be the dominant percentage of the price. Otherwise, we have a situation where Rolex is gouging the customer with a $7,500.00 steel tool watch.
Same debate as the cheapest cars available today are about double the price of a decade ago...
I'm gifted not to love luxury, classic dress/dive watches but I'm feeling more "safe" in the 600-1200euro range like Sturmanski ,Vostok Europe or micro brands. If I cannot afford a luxury watch the bling isn't visible for me but then again, IMO it's lame to pay a high tag because of branding and heritage.
If I'd really wanted a luxury watch I'd pick a Breitling Super Ocean 2nd hand but then again, it's not worth to be gun pointed for it.
Getting more keen on matt titanium cases lately...
Yes, prices are absolutely out of control. I bought my first decent watch, an Omega Seamaster 300m for £925 in 2006. A year later, the Casino Royale Planet Ocean 45.5 mm for around £2k. I'm not hung up on Autos, I'm fond of Citizen and have 5 of them. I picked up an Atomic Time one for £300 about 15 months ago £480 now. 6 months ago, a Christopher Ward Sealander which I got for £535 with the £100 discount voucher. £685 now and no discounts to be had. As far as London is concerned, I'd be scared to wear my yellow G-Shock Casioak there! Well done guys for this one, this needed to be said, price gouging is getting beyond a joke. I'd love a new auto Speedmaster as I'm a huge space programme fan, I've been to Kennedy a number of times, stood on Launch Pad 39a, seen a Shuttle launch, I can afford a Speedy, but at over £6k I don't want to afford it, it's irresponsible.
Amen. I agree.
Great conversation guys I agree it’s ridiculous but at the same time have 2 pieces totaling $15K retail so I’m also part of the problem.
Thinking of staying put where I’m at until the market settles after the coming recession.
Great video, as always.
I'm probably one of the few who are indifferent. Going to Wind-up Watch Fair recently, I feel we're in a great time to enjoy watches. So many creative, high quality watches are available to us to buy at very reasonable prices. Prices that if you used that price time adjustment wizard would probably crazy inexpensive 30 years ago.
It's the brand addiction that riles people up. Take the brand addiction away, and there's a wealth out there to enjoy.
I love the honest take on our beloved hobby/obsession.. Good job sers! (Btw funny thing is I wear a Formex Essence as a daily driver and my next watch will be probably a Tudor BB 54)
I regret passing on a used Explorer in 2010. £1500 from a jeweller in Brighton :(
Social media, speculating, and greed has ruined it for everyone...
Great video. I'd love to see the video idea you talked about at the end there. About which brands we should buy now before their retail price goes up.
Although true, the Burlington arcade is a total joke, having said that You could argue money is all relative too, so average UK salary was apparently £13,700 vs your Airking £999 - 7.3% of earnings. Apparently 2023 salary average is £32k, airking at £6250, so 19% of earnings. So your argument holds true imo
That's the reason I have more and more doubts to buy a Seiko. Beautiful dials, but compared to upcomming brands, they are overpriced. Even a Seiko 5...
Please make a video of 10 brands you think are still produce valie for the money...
Watch collection was a huge hobby for me but now I stopped because it’s too expensive.. now I moved towards other hobbies like photography…. I feel it was a good decision 😊
Good video...really talks to me. Im pretty much resigned to only being able to buy one more watch now....the prices are just oit of control. A year a go an aqua terra was 5k...now its just off 6k....that is crazy
you'll never be able to do it!
@@davidcrandall4958 cool mate...what ever you say....keep going the way you are with the same sentiment in your heart....truly an awful way to live a life...all the best to you
I'm sure someone else already said this (I haven't read all the comments) but isn't the Tudor similar quality to what Rolex was in the 90's?
I had a couple Rolex's in that period and they were not the same quality as today.
Got my explorer in 88/89 for £600 it's the only Rolex I've ever liked so I won't agonise over the inflated prices of the current catalogue.
Okay, boomer.
@@LittleBigPoet My point being that I can't afford something I don't want. People are desperate to get the Rolex name on their wrist, the actual products just aren't worth it.
You could have this exact same discussion about house prices etc etc. Prices are going up faster than wages.
This is why I have switched focus in my collecting journey and now focus on very high value for money watches. I genuinely believe that I get more enjoyment out of Casios, seikos, G shocks and a select number of microbrands then I do with the luxury brands. I think the consumer, social media culture does not help the issue. Im also sick of hearing brands like hodinkee preaching affordability over watches that 90% of the world could never afford in a lifetime. Rant over
Yes
The problem is, some brands are pricing in the 20-30% discount at retail. Thats why I like Tudor, Rolex and IWC--the price is more firm, less games being played. A lot of industries, not only watches, are moving from dealers and instead towards direct to consumer. Breitling has this problem--excellent watches, best boutiques around, but if AD will give me 25% off without me even asking, why would I purchase from the boutique or website?
Totally agree guys - when you look at brands like Monta, Formex and Ginault who are producing very well made watches for affordable prices - it’s becoming ridiculous. Maybe Monta and Formex should be some of the best watches on the market!
@@Jonnybravo6742 I own the Ginault OR2 and have a formex essence 39 on its way. I also own a Christopher Ward c60 Trident mark 3. It’s incredible what the smaller brands are making. Hope you enjoy the Monta and Silent service.
I've wanted a Submariner, but know I'll never be able to get one, and AD won't put me on a waiting list. Now it's ok for me. I have now found my microbrand, and enjoy my watches bought from them at a reasonable price and quality that is more than good enough for me.
Everyone wants to move upmarket these days. I've wanted a Speedy for about 8 years now. With the latest price increases this year, I can't justify it as a purchase anymore. Instead, I've started looking into less popular but higher-end manufacturers like Blancpain. There are some pieces on the 2nd hand market that while still expensive do offer more horology for the money.
Got a Orient Mako 2 for $140 with the blue sunburst dial, not exactly a Rolex but for the price of one Submariner i can build a whole collection that lasts a lifetime.
At the moment I can't even afford my casio f91 because I took my sister to mcdonalds as a way of saying sorry for farting on her head when she was watching tv. I am your core audience.
Your mate paying £6.5k for an Explorer 1 seems very good - Wafchfinder are asking at least £8.25k
In this position at the moment where I would love a Rolex Explorer 40 but the cost is far too much for me, find myself looking at the Tudor Ranger but can’t pull the trigger as it’s not what I really want
It seems, even a good value for money brand, such as ORIS, is moving g into a higher tier, ,where the value proposition, is watered down.
You guys really need to do regular vids like this and make them available as a podcast
especially rolex for an average movement in a steel watch im not paying that much
Good vid guys: in 47th St in Manhattan I would estimate there are 15-20,000 used Rolexes (mostly subs/gmts/Daytonas/Explorers) 'do the math'. Across 40-50 shops. If they all agreed to take a 40%mark up, instead of 80-100%, they'd all make more money than they ever would (turnover v profit model) they'd drive the price down across the market by increasing supply and everyone would be happy.
Instead Rolex are muscling in on the grey market and will, soon, be selling older versions of current models at higher prices than the MSP in their own ADs.
Surely a form of madness?
I'm fairly new to this hobby and only recently dipped my toes into the higher (which means lower end for others), and I find that what budget watch meant a few years ago, doesn't mean budget now. I'm sure the same could be said for higher end watches. I'd hate to think what an entry level Rolex or Omega cost in ten years.
We are in a golden age of watches.
There has never been more innovation, creativity in horology than there is today - and it's being driven by microbrands, and their ability to communicate directly to consumers.
The watch world is generally so cringey and microbrands are where it is at.
Rolex 904L steel costs pennies. Yes it’s more expensive than 316, but the difference is insignificant.
Note Omega were the first to experiment with 904L
There is a channel title; "Two Grumpy Old Men and Their Watches." Great discussion and all on point. I think the "elephant in the room" as it were are the Chinese and Middle Eastern markets. As long as they are purchasing +50% of the market and willing to pay AD prices we won't see a price correction. IMO.
Dead on accurate. Prices of watches and cars have gotten insanely out of control. Wife and I make a decent living, yet we still can't fathom paying today's prices for a watch or a car. A used Submariner 114060 for $11k? A Cadillac Escalade V for $200k? Eroded duplex homes with 2 bedrooms now cost $250k USD while normal detached houses with more than 3 rooms costs over half a million dollars. Heck, even a normal family car like a Toyota 4Runner now is about $50k. You used to be able to find incredible AMG Mercs or Porsches for $50k 10 years ago. It's left a sour taste for the watch hobby, I'm seriously considering selling Speedmaster 3861 and Heuer Carrera and just moving on to another hobby...even servicing costs ($500-$1000 USD) have come to cost as much as most new mid tier watches.
Back in 1999, in Finland we had marks as our currency. With 100marks, you could buy 12 beers, then head up to the nightclub, have a few beers more, go to the grill and buy yourself a hamburger meal as a night snack and take a cab ride home. As the our currency changed to Euro's ,100marks was something like 16-18euros. Now, twenty something years later, one can buy max three beers from any restaurant wit that money. Tops. So, my point is, as interesting subject as it is, you can not really compare prices from 90's with current time. Like, there's no point. Like you said, Air-King was a pricey but still affordable watch in the 90's, and it still is pricey, but also still affordable for a normal working class person.... with a little bit of saving up maybe, but still.
Great video guys. I just really got in to the hobby the last year or so and have quickly realized that I will never get into many of these brands because they are so expensive and they will only get further out reach each year.
The scary part is that people are paying these prices. I won't... for example, I really, really want a Rolex GMT Batgirl but I'm simply not prepared to pay the $15K that is required on the used market. Instead, I bought a Longines Zulu; this isn't "settling", the Zulu is an awesome timepiece. One day perhaps the Rolex will come down to RRP and then I'll reconsider.
I looked up the zulu out of curiosity. That's a super cool looking all-around / everyday watch. Great choice! might keep it in mind myself...
I am turning 40 years old, bought a brand new JLC Reverso tribute (steel, monoface, time only) as my milestone watch, a couple hundreds shy from 10'000 CHF 🙄🙄🙄 I did it but things are getting pretty insane
Put into perspective , the average person is walking around with phone that is near 1K that they will upgrade every couple of years.
I think high-end watch companies are headed for a Waterloo! They keep headed for more and more exclusive territory; meanwhile, microbrands are getting better and better.
Let's be real, Christopher Ward is VERY close to if not equal to the quality being produced by the big brands at a fraction of the price.
There's going to be a shake out in the microbrand space, but the ones left standing have a good opportunity to grow unabated. At some point, their trajectory intersects with the big boys, and people are going to say, "Hold on again, why would I pay that much for that, when I can get this for 30% as much!?"
Rolex is a nice watch, but it's entirely made by machines! In the quantities they produce, there's not really any justification for their prices. 😢
I think your bang on with your comments, I also think it's the time of the independent watch makers to step up, I'm not a fan of rolex so owning one is not on my horizon, but they are definitely not worth the money or the long waiting time, I've just ordered a islander watch from long Island watches and the spec on it far exceeds what you would pay for the equivalent swiss watch with the same spec...
This is a very interesting very intelligent analysis of the watch industry and watch pricing presently! I am enjoying it immensely! Thank you!
Even Seikos are getting stupidly expensive.
Watch inflation has rocketed in the last few years
I brought my omega sea master full size fully automatic in 2003 for £1100 retail picked it up for £950
I wear it all the time but have got a weekend away coming up in London thinking of leaving it at home
I’ve worn it all over the world and never thought about it
London to today have spotters going round all the bars just to get you on the way out
Lol, this is the ultimate "Gee, do ya think?" video title on UA-cam.
The price of the Explorer has increased by £1000 within a year.
Great chat and I appreciate the honest conversation. More of these please!
The reason for these crazy prices is the behaviour of watch collectors has changed. Now days these so called collectors change (sell) their watches like they change their jocks. Lucky if they keep a watch for 6 months. They actually love the buying & selling of watches more than the actual watch it's self.
I 100% agree with your discussion. I have resigned myself to the fact I will never own a Rolex or some other luxury brands for that matter. Unfortunately, as with most things watch pricing will not come down. Companies such as Rolex know they have a premium product that people are willing to pay more for. Toss in their restricted manufacturing capacity and thanks to supply and demand we get prices that are higher than what I paid for my 2017 Ford Fusion. I used to work for a premium brand in a different industry and would sit in meets with the CEO working on pricing of product and parts and he would tack on 10-20% to the price because he knew he could. Companies exist to make money so I can’t blame them I just wish they realized they could make more money if they increased their capacity and lowered their price.
I love watches and I have a few. Over the last year, however, I have changed my position on them. I do not want a Rolex or Omega, Cartier or JLC - as I did. My grail watches have changed to Hamilton (more, I have one and want more), Seiko, Sinn and Laco. I simply don't see the value in the first set anymore. The fact that Rolex won't sell me a watch means I will never buy one. A Speedy is nice but not worth the price ., especially when I have to wind it in a collection. I'd love a Santos or a Reverso - and maybe I'll quartz them, not sure, but at $7-14K, nope. I truly believe there is more REAL value in the second set of my new "grails" than in the first. I may look into Longines and other well-certified pieces too, but north of $2500, watches loose interest for me now.
I remember buying my 18k Daytona at 23% discount available on the spot, like £9750 or some such. My 6263 big red was £15k. Were not talking decades ago
What watch is Richard wearing here? Looks good. Is it a Smiths AIR MINISTRY PRS-29AM?
Spot on. Unfortunately, globally there are easily enough 'new middle class' able to afford the prices and most Swiss watch companies are constrained not by price, but by production capacity. Madness. The Ingenieur is the poster child of this phenomenon: obscenely over-priced. Brands that still offer value (different to 'cheap') and are likely to climb: Sinn and Parmigiani. Specifically the 356 chrono and Tonda GT time/date.
Not for long!
All going that way I’m afraid. JLC increases totally ridiculous.Bedrock Tudor ranges now £3k and above. Even the latest Longines Spirit issue over £4k. Oris prices heading upwards. Maybe some recent announced prices will mean the watches don’t make expected sales, but I don’t see list prices reducing ever.
This is why the last two watches I've bought have been a £500 Studio Underdog Watermelon and a £1k Christopher Ward The Twelve Icecream. There are so many watches I covet but will never own. I don't think the manufacturers care. If they double their prices they can loose half their potential customers and still make more money off those that can still afford them.
As a young watch enthusiast I really think this isn't a big of a deal. Omega etc just isn't affordable for me so that I could truly own one. I would be nervous to break it or that it get stolen. But so I can explore Microbrands and I definitely have more fun owning like 5 watches instead of one Rolex. Just because every Lawyer or Rapper own one doesn't mean that I have to have one too. There so many fun brands to explore, what Is definitely better than chop your arm of to afford a "premium" brand. So have fun to add your own experience and heritage to a watch you truly own from Mühle Glashütte, Damasko, Christopher Ward or whatever!
It’s the free market. The price will be whatever people are willing to pay. That’s it. If people stop buying three hand Rolexes for $8K+, the prices will go down. But they are still overpriced because the market has decided that a Rolex is an investment commodity now, not a wristwatch. Same thing with famous artwork. Why is a canvas smeared with paint worth thousands or millions? Because someone is willing to pay that much.
The watch industry and social media has succeded in not only persuading people that wristwatches are cool things to own, but one should have a collection of them.
This has emboldened manufacturers to hike prices to frankly ridiculous levels, either for exactly the same model, or by repackaging it in some way (not necessarily for the better) and slamming yet another increase on it.
For people who were into watches before all this kicked-off it's particulary galling, finding that the once affordable has now become the unaffordable.
The bloggers and pundits have, almost to a man, have gone along with this with barely any protest.
Many classic watches are now out of reach for real watch enthusiasts, and become the province of those with money to burn.
I could have bought last weekend a mechanical chronograph for £700 swiss made. Certina Chrono Diver with 300 metres water resistance. If it was in blue I would have bought it, it was black. The blue model is £1125.