Survival Heuristics: My Favorite Techniques for Avoiding Intelligence Traps - SANS CTI Summit 2018
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- Опубліковано 25 лип 2024
- In a 32-year plus career in the Intelligence Community, Carmen Medina made many different types of intelligence mistakes and suffered the consequences of faulty thinking. But along the way she learned a thing or two, and she is now eager to share these learnings with other intelligence professionals. In an entertaining and practical talk, she will share her favorite shortcuts and intelligence process hacks to help analysts think better and communicate their findings more effectively to their clients.
Carmen Medina, Retired, CIA; Author, Rebels At Work: A Handbook for Leading Change from Within - Наука та технологія
I don't know why this was recommended to me, but I'm glad that it was. Not only does it make me think, but also think about thinking itself, which, as an overthinker, I'm always happy to do
Maybe UA-cam's algorithm is onto something and making us meet.
What do you know that I don't and I should?
Haha. Felt this. Overthinking seems to define me. My friends telling me I over complicate everything.
food for thought
@@naturally_rob hey. is there some scale that shows us a limit of complication that we should stay below? or is overcomplicating just making a thing a bit more complicated but possibilities are endless? or am i overthinking this?
Same!!!!!
3:40 The streetlight effect
6:09 Trends are always about the past
7:46 Graffiti
9:03 Most things don't happen by chance
9:49 ... and I realized that when we use the phrase: 'something happened by chance',
what we're actually saying is that: 'we do not understand the causality chain, that lead to this event'.
10:27 Exponential causality
13:22 Worst case doesn't mean it's unlikely
The probability of something occurring is independent from the consequences that that event may have, right?
15:11 when you're explaining you are loosing
15:25 Don't drone on with technical explanations and facts, use compelling stories and examples tot make the point you want to make.
17:25 You (/they?) never run out of bullets
18:37 Emotions can kill
21:37 Construct and constantly revise your analytic landscapes
26:21 Apply a Cathagory System
29:39 Know Your Tinking style
29:58 Gregorc thinking inventory
- Concrete Sequential (CS)
- Abstract Random (AR)
- Abstract Sequential (AS)
- Concrete Random (CR)
31:02 Men and wonen are basicly good but feckless
31:28 Find Thinking Partner(s)
32:50 Deploy Diversity of Thought
34:20 Organisations that allow for a lot of different ideas, have better outcomes, even when the dissenters are wrong
36:12 5-10 minutes stand up meeting
36:49 Any commends?
37:43 Think Together from the Start
38:30 Respect Your Intuition
Thank you...
Thank you
@@Crzydiamondz You are wellcome
@@ratunkuuu You are wellcome
Thank you so muuuuuch
I'm glad speaker mentions diversity of thought. Really sums up why today we see conformity of thought and superficial diversity in corporate environments.
Keep saying what you want to say, make your friends angry. The ones who walk away let them go find other people who act like spam when engaged in real conversation. The ones who will stand and have a dialogue with you can be saved. If social media is meth, intellectual rigidity is the Fentanyl. The spirit OD's and dies. Everybody's speed balling brother.
@@ttolmbrftttwtbopat I like to be on the fence
That's not why
@@ttolmbrftttwtbopat idk man, there’s a limit to how many times I’m willing to hear my friend talk about how the age of consent should be questioned.
Like how do you enter in to constructive dialogues with people over issues like pedophilia?
I’m willing to give a lot of wide space for others having divergent views, but I think you need to have SOME red lines, where you just walk away.
@@xenoblad well yeah I’m surprised you ever talked to that person again. That’s exactly my point by the way. I’m not thinking about this wholly diabolical subject that is Towards the front of your mind. It’s not about what you’re thinking about. I’m assuming you’ve been watching a lot of satanic pedophile elite conspiracy videos? Not trying to troll you either I’m just trying to not assume the worst. But anyway yeah when people interact from the standpoint of whatever the last video was about. That shit causes problems . in everyone’s lives. Specifically I mean the mental health of all of us is basically slipping down a giant drain
I found this talk oddly compelling and helpful for life in general not just (apparently) intelligence analytics.
Accept Jesus Christ as your Lord and Savior and you will be saved. John 3:16 (share the good news of the gospel around the world!) Have a wonderful day/night, may the LORD bless you all, and farewell!,.,,,,,,
....
When you're driving down the road and you see a police officer. Odds that you'll see another one in the next 6 minutes are good and you can drive as you see fit .
I agree totally about "compelling and helpful for life in general". She struck me as somebody I would have really enjoyed working for or with at The Company.
Agreed, this was a fantastic talk.
Survival is life and surviving in this world is a series of analyzing and sharing intelligence and ideas.
It was really weird how she explained that sometimes policymakers try to think for themselves and that’s a problem. So what we do is shape our argument so that there’s only one decision to be made that way these policymakers don’t think incorrectly. The CIA really scares me.😮
Have you seen a politician? I don't think thinking for themselves will do anyone any good.
It should scare you
American no freedoms just hate
@@asdfghjkl3669 Well, stop voting for stupid politicians? Not all of them are idiots, a lot are, but not all.
@@pigpuke i beg to differ. I don't think a single politician is a subject matter expert on anything but politics. They aren't reliable enough to be treated as experts in a field; so their thoughts on subjects outside of their experience aren't worth much.
Not exactly the person you'd pick at the cookout to have the best stories - precisely what she wants you to think - no doubt a contributor to why she's top-notch!
I could talk to this lady all day
Just the person I'd talk to. I've found that the people who don't advertise themselves typically are those who feel content about themselves and what they've done. They're always the ones with the best stories and greatest lessons.
If I could, I'd talk to this lady all day.
@@Greg-yu4ij 😜 That's exactly the vibe she projects/elicits. She can be a listening post allll day lonnnng 😝
She is my new thinking friend
@@naturally_rob You are a rare bird; arguably most people are looking for Mick Jagger at the cookout. Can't blame them, Micks wild! lol!
You can also over-react to a person’s emotional state - Specially when you don’t know them well and/or you are insecure either due to personal guilt (you harmed the person in question) or lack experience. The majority of those who vocalize (the barking dog) are usually harmless, having vented their emotions, and it’s often those who don’t (the silent dog/the snake in the grass whom APPEARS to be compliant) who’ll come to bite you.
Either harmless,highly sensitive? Or a sociopath. I encountered one and it was ridiculous
@@Respect2theFallen it is the purveyor of a 'knife in the back' which one has to be wary of
Appreciate the apology. Try to ensure your deeper understanding does some good.
We punish people for opening up.
I want to comment... but that would show my reaction, thereby nullifieng my provoked thought.
There's alot of sigma males here huh?
This is an amazing video! I do not understand how this video was recommended to me, but I'm glad it was. This should be taught in schools.
This video is 3 1/2 years old. The way she talks about Afghanistan I thought it was made in the last month or so. I wonder what she saw coming.
Most people except for politicians saw what was coming.
Anyone with above room temperature IQ that even remotely paid attention to politics would have seen this coming.
could have seen it coming in 2005
You are all lying. Hindsight bias is strong here.
Lmao a 14 year old with a basic ass NYT understanding of the Afghanistan war could have told you what was coming.
What everyone missed is that she implied the internet today is my about the freedom of information, it's about the control of it. Let that simmer in.
An old newspaper saying ~ "Never argue with a man who buys his ink by the barrel."
Can you correct your spelling? I don't get your point
And Google and Wikipedia are loaded with spin and lies
@@v.britton4445 Yet, it's neither Google nor Wikipedia that are the primary generators of the false information that inhabits their digital space. When someone adds an entry to Wikipedia that contains errors, it isn't Wikipedia that made the errors; it merely houses those errors. Same with search results: if some web site is particularly crafty in the way its site was coded, they could appear quite high in the search results despite being incorrect about its content.
A more correct way to state what I think you're getting at is this: *some* people are able and willing to introduce errors into what, ideally, is supposed to be *only* correct information.
In the end, nearly every 'problem' in the world starts with people. People are the problem.
Fry asks "Since when is the internet about robbing people's privacy?"
Bender responds, "August 6,1991."
Entertainment, academia, big tech, advertising and news media could all use a big dose of diversity of thought.
They know exactly what they're doing...
@@movement2contact Indeed, how can the public maintain such willful ignorance?
So much information at our fingertips and yet somehow we just keep getting stupider.
I find it particularly strange when a government agent claims that people working in national security had no respect for or knowledge the potential of the internet as a military intelligence operation, one of the most expensive and far-reaching to date. Somebody is far more naive or deceptive than she lets on.
Totalitarians dislike diversity of thought.
Hilarious considering the CIA works in tandem with all of them per Project Mockingbird. They definitely know what they’re doing.
@@justinw2232 On the contrary, diversity of thought is essential to maintaining the game of global conflict.
It's peace they abhor.
They'll maintain a constant inrush of diversity, so long as they can simultaneously fuel the fires of xenophobic, cultish sentiment on every front... and profit from the ensuing military infrastructure that gets constructed in the process.
When a fine intellect also achieves a great breadth of experience then you get a person like this. I bet her team misses her big time. I know I would.
Nice word “breadth” first time I see it…
@@kristine6996 why thank you. It tickles the tongue nicely as you say it!
Accept Jesus Christ as your Lord and Savior and you will be saved. John 3:16 (share the good news of the gospel around the world!) Have a wonderful day/night, may the LORD bless you all, and farewell!,.,,,,,,
....
Well summarized 👌
A businessman hires what he considers a fine intellect and a great asset to the team. Turns out she's a tenured CIA operative who was knowingly brainwashed by the organization & understands what them thinking highly of her entails. Hope you have a beefy medical insurance package.
The freedom of free flowing debate allows everyone to lift their game, even when the dissenters are wrong it is BEST TO ALLOW THEIR THOUGHT AND BELIEF THAN TO QUELL IT.
Thats a thought of the century I think.
Underrated comment. It’s true.
Quelling it means building resentment until that pot pops. The thought and belief won’t disappear, it will just go underground. Unless you crush them completely, and that’s a dangerous game.
There are truly only two options:
1. Let them speak.
2. Eliminate them.
These are lessons of the 20th century that countless souls died to teach us. We’re forgetting it and it’s a damn shame.
@@entropyfun it was the conflict of the 20th century that we ought to have already learned.
Hundreds of millions of people died so we could learn it.
@@joetheperformer Yes, but human race learns slowly and painfully
@@joetheperformer if I have learned anything from the repeat attempts through history of one ideology trying to completely destroy another, its that everyone suffers and there is never any gain in favor of one over another.
The people who usually don't push, don't ask and don't bicker about opinions and beliefs heavily outweigh their overly-ideological counterparts, and if anyone is going to be hurt first its always the LOUDEST SQUEAK.
If only mankind could wake up and see the Serpent who is devouring Creation (no matter your religion, this is still happening)
The Black Snake CANNOT and WILL NOT SUCCEED.
- Avoid the streetlight effect bias (paying attention only to info that is most accessible. It's similar to missing unknown unknowns.) Some of the answers on how to do this are below
- review and revise your methods of data capture (and "analytic landscapes")
- Cynefin framework.
- Know your thinking/decision making style (although there isn't a single test for this, try Gregorc, Optimism/pessimism)
- use a thinking partner, someone who thinks differently from you
- Deploy diversity of thought. Teams that have more ideas and more dissent, and deal with it well, make better decisions, even though the dissenters are wrong. It challenges everyone to raise their game. Harmony and speed are not signs of a good meeting.
- Think together from the start. Collaborate so that you don't get to the end and only then realize there's dissent.
- Respect your intuition
Intuitive observation ? USA becoming an Asian country ? Being over run or infiltrated for future domination ? Oh no , that would be a worst case scenario .
Cynefin framework is probably the biggest brain rewiring that I've had in the last 10 years.
Oh shut up!
She provides the ultimate toolkit for grasping complex situations with brilliant clarity and charm.
She was 20 years into her career before she realized humans are emotional. Seems like the CIA is full of out of touch nerds.
She's a slob. Who are you kidding?
@@FrederSnorlaxthat’s most of society! We are a left brain dominant, narrow viewed (regarding success especially) society…who fails miserably at emotional intelligence, emotional maturity…
Boy oh boy... this is one of those I'll have to watch several times, and then every few months to review progress on this themes in my thinking and life, what's the point of knowing all these things if it doesn't change your behavior for lack of IMPLEMENTATION courage.
That is one reason I love that first few minutes of the series House Of Cards , where he has to put the dog down and tells the camera that doing the hard things is.... well not everyone who knows what to do is capable of doing it.
Me too.
Loved that shoe k. Spacey is a phenomenon
Thanks for unpacking all of that and best of luck in your future, Carmen.
I didn't realize the CIA viewed the branches of the US military as "customers". I'm not real sure what to make of that.
It isn't referred to as "the corporation" for no reason. 😊
Privatization
None of the alphabet soup agencies are part of the government. They’re all independent as far as I can tell
Whatever you make of it, that's ok: the customers always right
It’s because the people at the CIA work to produce a “product” - the product of their work is intelligence. The military are the ones who consume that intelligence. A.K.A., the military are their “customers” and they need to produce the product that the military needs so that it has what it needs when it needs it. It’s not a business that operates for “profit”, but the mechanisms at play are very much akin to the business transactions that companies and customers engage in, and so many of the structures and workings are basically the same.
Why this isn't taught in school is beyond me. How to think, and what is your thinking style? Would be a game changer.
Because school is for creating obedient slaves.
@@mikuspalmis yeeeees!
EVERY NCO in the Army is trained to evaluate possibilities by thinking about BOTH the likely hood (probability) very rare to absolute certainty AND the affect - annoying to catastrophic, at the same time. Why don't our policy makers have the same mind set? Maybe because when we screw up we DIE, they just go on to a new assignment.
Absolutely right. With the addition : for important positions in the armed forces, small businesses, and forward looking organisations requires you to prepare and prove yourself, politicians need only have the persuasive capabilities of a dishonest used car salesman. It's the ability to lie, or divert attention elsewhere, take credit or blame another that cuts someone out for political office. That, and the ability to justify one's actions, however dishonorable. (I would ask that readers don't take this as an opportunity to spout their personal political beliefs.)
Or they become President.
Because policy makers Don't have the BIG BALLS like the miltary
😂😂😂cos they are basically just actors, they are there to peddle the agenda of others🤙🤙
If the policy maker was surprised by the worst case scenario, she failed to do her job. She failed to communicate the most likely outcome. It is common communication to assume the worst case scenario is unlikely unless stated otherwise. Because, like you said, she has no real skin in the game and you can tell it.
Brilliant - thanks. Have saved to listen again and shared with the grandson.
Very smart. Wish I had more people in my life on that level!
Get out there and seek them out. When you watch TV shows, be not just entertained but be educated as well. Same with the people you choose to have around you. You can do it! You sound like someone who is actually pretty smart.
Go on Reddit. Met many smart people on there. Highly reccomended
@@MangyPL Reddit does not promote diversity of thought. For that reason alone they eliminate many of the most thoughtful, intelligent, interesting people.
@@doreenb.8928 lol I was being entirely sarcastic about Reddit. I agree with you
@@MangyPL Hahaha!
That’s how a pro does power point&teach effectively. Few words, entertaining gifs, anecdotes, ask open ended questions of the audience.
Amazing speech. One thing that really sparked my attention is when you described the program that feeds info to your analysts. This made my intuition immediately recognize something, and I believe it likely leads back to Facebook and Google.
Principles of wisdom. Not common enough. Play her audio on the radio every day. Thank you for sharing.
everywhere I've worked nobody could figure out wtf I was doing most of the time, because I always prepared for the worst case scenario as if it were the only scenario. and very, very frequently, because nobody else was even considering the possibility of the worst case scenario, my preparations ended up saving everyone's ass. not necessarily because the worst case scenario was realized, but because the worst case is a culmination of many problems all at once, so having a full spectrum solution allowed for the easy resolution of everything up to and including the worst case.
Always consider the worst case, if it doesn't happen you're still ahead of the game. If it does happen, you're still ahead of the game.
Absolutely!
I’m the same way when we travel and one kid got sick with flu on way down and had a flu shot so it too bad but bad headache so I had meds to get us to our destination and then to the doctors! I’m overly prepared all the time!!!! Except recently!!!
There are those of us who have a backup for the backup. And another backup wouldn't hurt 😀
yup . where wood the world be without us anal OCD'ers lol ..
So glad I came across this. Really helped me think more accurately. Familiar with heuristics, but wow I love the foundation of this analysis!
I believe the type of grooming (discussed during the emotions can kill module) is referred to as Social Engineering.
Menticide & schizogenisis
So the entire Russian collusion hoax.
That's the entire Western culture, entertainment and news media.
She’s amazing ! I want to work with her . I love to see understand people’s motives and processes. Amazing to listen to her .
Thank you, and enjoyed your graphical examples.
What a facinating talk, diversity of thought and constantly revising wasy of viewing the world are real take home messages here.
Thank you for sharing.
The grandma you wish you had, she's awesome
Grandma, tell us that story again about how the information you provided was used to deceive the American public and lead to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of innocent people, including babies, and how we are not safer for it, in fact the opposite, and that we so quickly gave up our rights and we will still be paying for it when I’m a grandma too! Please. Pleeeeeeaasssse!
Ok, but you have to got to sleep right after I tell you again about the worst case scenario.
Give the group a reason to pay attention and respond. For example, one math teacher had an aid that was also becoming a math teacher. The school gave them the lowest functioning group that was not diagnosed as special ed. They were simply low grade students.
The teacher said that both adults would teach the topic. The class would vote who taught the best and say why. First the teacher taught and then the aid said that something had been missed and she taught that. The next day, the aid went first and the teacher taught second. The teacher told the aid to internally not care who got the most votes but externally she had to put on a show so that the kids were entertained by her reaction. Normally, nobody wants to hear the same stuff twice except the kids had to listen in order to vote. By the end of the year, the entire class had drastically improved their skills.
As someone which often have to make critical and accurate assessments for which the outcome affects tens of millions of citizens, I reckon these concepts will definitely help me be that bit more focused on what to ask, how and to who. Thank you for sharing this very usefull knowledge and experience.
Bowled me over. Super smart, great sense of humor and, best of all for me, a mind that works like mine. I'm a similar manner. The difference is your capacity to articulate your concepts in a way that is comprehensible to all joined with a fantastic capability of following a string of thought, even way down the way. Brava.
You are so brilliant, well-spoken and your talks are always so cogent. Thank you for your service.
Glad I stumbled across this. For a class assignment, I needed insight into the analytic process used to look at national security threats. What a fantastic presentation. Medina mixed humor and humility into a wealth of cogent points to boost self-awareness, improve the analytic process, and avoid intelligence traps. Well done!
Good stuff, I graduated the Bach program earlier this year, I think this would have really helped.
Apply her mindset to investments.
Well expressed. You will do well!
This might help..ua-cam.com/video/GukIoZ8d3Ew/v-deo.html
@@tmseh Or a bunker , guns and ammo and a five year supply of pork and beans.....Because investments ain't going to stop your neighbor from turning you in to the Getstopo (The newly formed capital police going nationwide)
I think the subconscious is the captain of the ship and our conscious cells are just like passengers occasionally point at something and go I want to go there or I want to do that. I defer to my subconscious always. I'm just glad I learned that early on in life compared to at the end.
Yes.
I've not recently been as moved by a technical talk as the one Carmen Medina gave in 2018. Watching the entire video will certainly help you think deeper and be smarter across any domain.
One fantastic way to avoid the streetlight effect is to have comprehensive visibility and control due to a constantly adapting digital twin of the enterprise and supply chain.
My company delivers this...
Wow thanks UA-cam and Carmen Medina, you really taught something with immediate applications. I'm really grateful
This is incredibly good. So much invaluable data here.
As someone who manages multiple teams for various forums or servers, even on a low niche end of the spectrum, i cant explain how important much of this is, both when looking up, and looking down the rank chain.
If i were to add anything more to it, its to always *always* have someone in your team that will always have a conflicting opinion. I think she touched on this a bit with her positive and negative, but its a lot more in depth than just that. People that you disagree with have such unique and different opinions and solutions to problems that its just.. crazy really xD I genuinely cannot count how many times those clashing members in my team have actually saved my ass from doing something incredibly incredibly dumb. And its because of this, i will never ever ever try to get them removed because of just how valuable they are to the team, even if i do almost always disagree with everything they say.
In fact, as the particular one im thinking of right now had once said. "If theres a problem and i cant find the solution, im clearly not looking at it through the right lense. It may take some time to find that lense, but honestly, im lazy, and one of you obviously have the lens i need."
Or my personal favorite. "If everyone thought the way i do, thered be a lot more problems to fix"
I'm just a Carpenter with no real education to speak of I can apply a lot of this to everyday Life and work
We must not forget the old cheesy saying
Knowledge is power because it truly is
Well, knowledge is Potential power at least. Wisely applied knowledge, now that is power.
Well, knowledge is Potential power at least. Wisely applied knowledge, now that is power.
Carpenters Rule !
You’re not just a carpenter.
Glad I finally got around to watching this, it was deeply interesting and some really intriguing advice to apply to many aspects of life.
I found this a 💎 from my feed! I already put thinking fast and slow on my bookshelf and will use the rest of the holiday weekend to consume.
Thanks for posting this video. One (of many) things she said that was so simple yet profound was: "things don't happen by chance" ... "replace that with we don't yet understand the causality chain that led to this event." Events occur as a result of past events whether or not those events are predictable. Randomness & causality are separate, but related, phenomena. Great insight!
Carmen is fascinating. Rarely have I seen any openly pursue so many concepts that she is not naturally talented in. This is a person with a learners mindset.
About ten minutes in and intuition says this lady is worth listening to. Very useful perspective.
Im humbled and highly 🙏
Thank you for these videos . Your a genuine genius and I have your back no matter what and for life ✨❤
Like @Dukedot, I don't know how this appeared in my feed BUT...as a (IMHO) strong abstract thinker, I loved it!! However, I was raised by a dad with a mental disorder that frequently prompted him to instill in us, as kids, the idea that the worst case scenario was equally likely (or MORE likely) than the best case or an average case. Sadly, for the great majority of my life, I lived in fear of the worst case being the likely outcome so, I _always_ doubted myself. It wasn't until he died that I found out the details of the depth of his mental problem. Anyway...I'm hoping Ms. Medina has more on UA-cam. Her ideas are bang on and compliment Tom Peters (whom I greatly admire) ideas. Super grateful this video!!
Wow, what a smart lady. I actually think I incorporate many of her ideas (with my own bias), but think how narrow minded so many of my team members have been. This was a terrific talk.
Thank you!! Wonderful lecture from a great mind.
I loved this several months ago, had to watch it again!
This was interesting and even fun to watch. You gave me a lot of food for thought and following up on your examples and literature recommendation was very useful as well.
Valuable info. Too often it is easy to think about things in a binary way. Any tools / ideas that help us not fall down this trap is valuable.
I am going to have to watch this again in a year to remind myself of her points.
How...
I see this all the time in covid discussions. People use the term "immunity" when they should be using "resistance" or "resistance level".
And it leads them to binary thinking.
Same thing for masks. Binary thinking is they are either perfect or worthless. But really, more like poker and you get an extra card for wearing one kind of mask or get a wild card for wearing another kind of mask.
@@osirusj275 and the others
Yes! "What did I get wrong?" is something I just tried recently with someone who works for me, and it got him to FINALLY look at a report he drafted and I corrected. He said he learned something!
Good tip.
I learned a lot from the talk. I also learned by looking up related concepts (e.g. problem-space categories).
Ms. Medina is an excellent speaker. I had to look up “heuristic” -I don’t use it in daily conversation. Her point about worse case scenarios is worth watching just in itself.
I understand this type of thinking. I was raised to think this way. Upon my father's death, it was disclosed he worked at the Agency.
Exponential causality, that’s profound. Nothing ever happens linearly, it happens over time, exponentially.
Amazingly articulate.
Great guest speaker for the budding cyberspace security community.
Such a brilliant video video.
Post light effect
Respect your intuition
Quantity has a quality of its own.
I’m enjoying this so much that it needs a new category on a personal playlist.
This is the best explanation of the current domestic unrest here in the U.S.. A large number of the population has been duped by the internet and are very emotional and dedicated. I'm sure much of it is the result of a foreign intelligence effort at the beginning. Best bang for the buck so far.
PLA PsyOps
@@H33t3Speaks Cost almost nothing also.
@@H33t3Speaks yeah, like the Russia Russia Russia
Yes. I'll admit i was fooled by domestic actors on "both sides".
@@MV-bj1yk Could be any bad actor.
China, North Korea.....
I think things like the streetlight effect happen bcs the system cares more about processing data for political agendas more than it cares about doing a genuinely good job for society.
Yup and also People that listen to baseless rumors without supporting facts and is driven by a general narrative they like to hear. You see what you want to see. If your light is always on "republicans are racist" that's exactly what you'll find.. or "democrats are planning to destroy America" you will find articles on that as well and down the rabbit hole you will go, pick your poison.. humans are susceptible to Tribal behavior and often hard to escape developed cognitive biases.
True in the realm of public education, as well! The system cares more about processing data for policy agendas, more than it cares about truly helping kids become better learners!
@@goodgracious6364 It doesn't care at all. It's job is to create obedient slaves.
The American power structure views the polity as an instrument, not an end unto itself. That's why it's showing so much stress.
@@darthclone7 and how consummately weaponised now by algorithms, military grade ones.
THANK YOU for this valuable info for such a time as this !!!!!!
Loved your final comment about intuition. Explains a lot!
Rarely do I break out the pen and paper for a video but this was one of those times. I'm ready for the exam now 😅
She is using some great concept models that could be associated and integrated with cognitive psychology.
Nice analysis on we tend to analyze and how we should open our eyes to broader methods of analysis. I can see how to apply this to other endeavours as well, such as investing. Very good!
I'm going to let this soak in, then watch it again in a few days.
She is absolutely Brilliant. 🥰🥰🥰🥰
I started this video because I thought the title was about philosophy. I'm enjoying it anyway
Fantastic presentation! Reminds me of the concept of using different frameworks to solve problems. Even using frameworks and different 'lenses' is a trap. Now I see - only I don't. Thanks!
The lil caviar at the end! Thank you for such great and beautiful insights!
Intuition is deductive reasoning from premises you can't remember in the moment.
Or observations too subtle for the conscious mind
Well, there is Institution, and there "signs", which always happen to "tell you" just what you want; to do, to believe, an on and on. Knowing the difference, that's the real skill
that was supposed to be Intuition (Not institution)
Record all data
@@aaroncamss4053 Not possible
Okay, where is the UA-cam University course that this is a part of? I would like to sign up for more of this type of content.
it doesnt exist! this is it!
It doesn't exist on the net, and it doesn't exist in any university, or most homes or most workplaces... basically you're (we are!) on your own. Sorry.
So keep looking for gems like this one. Definitely a harsh and hard journey.
Read the book, Thinking Fast and Slow
ua-cam.com/video/N7hrzOCxaIE/v-deo.html
Very interesting presentation. Thank you, Carmen.
Fascinating speaker. Fortunate to have stumbled upon this video.
Really liked the “when your explaining your loosing” and even brought up metaphors. I believe Jonathan Haidts “The Righteous Mind” is a metaphor to Daniels book. If you want to be a better talker, not loose friends over disagreements, or just understand how humans work, read that book. Fantastic talk!
Losing. Did she misspell it too?
@@seriouscat2231 why are you so snarky over a minor spelling error? Are you content with bringing more negativity into the world? What a sad human.
@@Trapping_ackbar7, I was being as polite as I could. There was no negativity and no snark. Just a honest question. The negativity is all yours.
@@seriouscat2231 “did she misspell it too?” When she was clearly talking. We both know that wasn’t a genuine question. That was snark. No need to gas light, I understand the need to deflect when being called out. A simple “*losing” would do. Hope you’ll be more mindful of your subtle underhands going forward.
@@Trapping_ackbar7, I did not watch the video. It was just an unlucky guess that she wrote it out at some point and you took it from there, but now I know she didn't.
God Bless this woman. And, all patriots who come forward with "insider" knowledge. Don't know if it'll help us NOW...but, good to know.
I was linked here at the end of a Gravel Institute video. Learning SO MUCH about the CIA today...
I worked with an awesome organization when I was a young marketing manager. The head of our organization always split and mixed the different factions of workers as well as their managers up for oe weekly half hour meetings to discuss different department isdues. The input from different perspectives was phenomenal. We actually overshot a new product campaign to the point it caused issues no one saw. I was also in charge of hosting annual meetings with other loosely knit companies that were part of our group at different host locations to share ideas. We decimated competitors and then my company started merging with the others after I left. Our biggest advertising money making campaign came an employee who was in managing credit card accounts. So I learned never take input for granted. 2 heads are better than one became my mantra from then on. Now I am off to take the Gregorc test. It should be interesting!
I love her quantum mechanics quip that something that happens in the future can effect the past. Believe it . It's not " new math" . Death and hunger work for me !
Your example is one of 'anticipated future' affecting the present. Her point is about the actual future affecting the actual past. Because humans experience time sequentially, this eludes our common sense but in the quantum model, all time is affecting all time all the time. You may find this interesting:
ua-cam.com/video/Qa4JkgKDaR0/v-deo.html
@@RichardHarlos thank you for the enlightenment sir... I do get your Drift! But in the whole sceme of things who's to say it's not that simple . Direct cause and effect over time linearly are primary. Relativity is not just for our human imprecise, mathematical models and imperfect instrumentation but the essence of our existence as well.
@@vicpso1 I'm sorry but I'm not clear on what it is you're saying in your reply to me. When you write, "in the whole scene of things who's to say it's not that simple", what specifically are you referring to that might be "that simple"?
It's just a misinterpretation that people think you can affect something in the past, long since been proven that it's just the probabilistic nature of "virtual"
particles before actualization. The eraser experiments are just confusing from a rigid Newtonian "physical matter" perspective
@@goldnutter412 please provide a resource or reference to explore this further
Thank u, @ this particular time in my life - for your commentary : very provocative ...
What a lovely lady....much loved by many. World safer place because of people like her.
Awesome thought process
the other thing you wanted to know is called correlated. The life guard become friends with the manager of the market across the street from the beach. He noticed that when more coca-cola is sold, there are more drownings and rescues. So the lifeguard wondered if drinking coca-cola impairs a person's swimming ability.
But we know that there is a third cause of more people drinking coca-cola and more drowning and rescue events:
a holiday, hot weather, beach events, etc. Both events were triggered by a third event. Yet, the lifeguard can bring in more employees based on the days the market manager expects to sell more coca-cola. This is correlation but not causative.
Wow, that was surprisingly invaluable!, Thanks so much for putting this out
Great point. People often confuse 'worst case scenario' with 'least likely to happen'.
That was such a bullshit response of a bureaucrat deflecting blame. When you debrief a politician or someone else, there is a conversational meaning of terms, and you have got to know that when you say "worst case" that you are communicating a condition that is optimistically unlikely to happen. So, when the results are at or worse than the Worst Case situation reported, it is totally legitimate for someone to have made a decision to target the mean determination of central tendency. This is a semi-technical way of dropping the hot potato -- I hate crap like this. And not only that, but her actual point is incorrect. If you look at central tendency based on a normal distribution and choose a range of correct answer +/- a percentile error... the distribution is still a normal distribution that is more likely at the mean and less likely as you go further away from the mean.
"Large red ball has appeared infront of me, I am unprepared for this, this wasn't in my training!"
🤣
We're obviously in such capable hands with Government people like this one!!
If you liked this you will love Platos Allergory of the Cave. So much the ancients knew, we no longer teach our children.
Plato's The Republic, book VII, where the Allegory of the Cave theme is that human perception can't attain true knowledge is still relevant today.
It's just a metaphor. Nothing to see here, folks. Move along now.
Uh, no, The Cave story is almost always at half way decent schools, afaik!!
@@18_rabbit The problem with the analogy is that everyone automatically sees themselves as the freed prisoner and not sitting among the chained. They assume that because they understand the analogy (even though they barely have become acquainted with Plato's philosophy) they must be among the enlightened. Producing a false assurance is all this metaphor seems to be good for.
@Geegee Poo nice handle.; it leads me take you seriously.
Thank you for your Service. Do our future a favor, write more books about your slice of life wisdom. Some entity in the future will thank you again.
Thank you for your service.
Agree 10000000% re: annoyance at professors that claim that past (data) necessarily implies the same trend will unfold for future events. Statisticians are notorious for this fallacy: if we only assume free will, human behavior is always an X factor able to shift outcomes beyond ANY other force at play.
No, re statisticians. Did u take stats and do ok??
@@18_rabbit They'd say stuff like "50% of you will fail this class", which is a fallacious argument, pretending to accurately predict the future based on past performance. It would defeat the purpose of experiencing the class if it is so "predetermined", as these arrogant a-holes would claim. Nothing stops most reasonably intelligent people from earning an A with enough effort. And the IQ levels of my cohorts were certainly high enough to at least make As, Bs, or Cs achievable FOR ALL with enough effort.
*I'm always amazed by who REALLY works for intelligence, as compared to what hollywood portrays them to be*
its like there are no intelligent people in hollywood
This lady is invaluable. Very grateful for the talk (:
Maybe you didn't have an opinion when you started, but you seem to have taken the tack most people have with regard to this whole ball up. You very accurately describe-define the attitude of Davos and big tech, and you are the voice of reason with regard to all these critical issues at hand. You are exactly right, freedom is the ability to decide for ourselves, what we want, what we are willing to accept, and what the "powers" must keep their hands off. Having Eric Snowden on was proper, on time, and of extraordinary value for The People, and against government regulatory capture. Thanks for all you do.
Anyone who says they are certain that they know how to protect you are lying and shouldn’t be trusted. I’d hire the firm that tells me they aren’t sure and are working daily to always get closer.
You dirty bastard! …I like how you think, post here more often if you would please.
The "Street Light Effect" is good to be aware of but it's also commonly understood in quantitative statistics, a field in which I hope the CIA is very familiar. As for not using past trends to predict the future, I believe this is a weakness in statistical methods. Yes, you can use methods to identify causality (what is both necessary and sufficient, established through experimentation). However, these probabilities are derived from the outside looking in. Instead of generalizations of data from observations, one should try to understand the machine that generates the data. If you can build the machine then you can generate and predict with more accuracy. Statistical causality gives clues but you still need hypothesis to invision the machine.
I thought the same thing. I'm a data analyst and modeler. I've always had to use historical data to best predict the future because it's... the only real data that exists. People who say we can't look to the past have never had to work on things like wait time algorithms which use weighted historical averages. Successful businesses leverage historical data for financial forecasts as well.
I learned a lot. I wasn’t sure about the ending choice of a head scratcher but was hoping I will understand it when I watch again. I can’t imagine it to be something negative.
Brilliance\Wisdom, comes in all forms, sizes, and genders; point in example right here!
Linear thinking vs. fractal thinking that factors in changing changing information that could make the original hypothesis irrelevant.
Now try that with 3 factors that .007% have done in human existence. Btw,sure im loco.
Infrasound, augmented reality, scalar waves.
Pretty much Theres a story of a guy in 1998 driving northbound on 5 freeway outside San Diego around 10pm Sunday evening going 90. Few cars slow lanes also witness that a bright orangebrown light is driving a go kart? The light brownish. Seems to be an ape?
Donkey Kong racing 64 video game soon after diddy kong world record game never finished donkey Kong for technology was augmented during flight races leading to free fall being so life like it was ment for flight simulation in San Diego. I think thats how they got the story for movie pixels lol.
@@nicoblaytherealflamingo445 were you stoned? Your comment was disorganized and not on target. I would like to hear what you have to say if you can say it coherently.
@@wordsculpt lol i dropped my iphone and its hard to backspace and glitch doesnt help.lol . Alright , i read it.
Just out side SD is main marine training and SD docks all the navy crew ships. Along with armed forces of most elite , ever is the forces that can control all our minds and in doing so will they make all of us learn at half the pace so they can keep hold to their 10 year monopoly plan.
So, the point being of donky k racing and why it never finished or started so they say is it getting to good in visual. ( 64 Star fox was also a military type. Think of the movie" small soldiers" and i did flight module for space program as kid round those years and star fox was prob better. Meaning!! I rt Jk yh EZra ax 21 20s over city tripping people out thinking bttf is really above coffee bean chilling.
Same idea just 22 years ago with donkey Kong. A visual tech master mind atree4nd who's already creater his son one night was pretty bright
So if you live near metropolis im pretty sure youve Seen hologram people and even buildings. Again if they wanted they can control all of Us. These people dont have money but are the movement of fundamental values. Theyvhave no money but own everything. -- group n i made hologram for lady showing slight glimpse of her mom so she could feel +40uplifted and out of blue anoh r guy Jooth.