Firstly, thank you for consistently uploading videos and contributing to the Catan community. It may feel like everyone rips into you when you make mistakes. I like to think it comes from the right place and they just want to see you improve. On to the game: You need to more accurately predict your 2nd settlement, also known as your "outs". You do talk about this but your though process is not concrete. For example: You can reasonably say that, 5910x2, 643, 834/10, 6411, 6511/12 will be taken - that is a total of 6 spots For the 7th, I would analyse, 83, 84, 810x2, 4911, 6311. It is most likely the 6311 will not be open for you. Besides that, it is likely that one of these spots will be your outs (open for you). So if you are considering 6411, you need to consider if these outs will compliment this placement which they do not. Following this process, 5910 was my pick. 84 or 4911/2 are good outs for you. When it doubt go for high production. Production wins games. You keep going for low production setups without justification to break the rule.
ok im a top 200 and not top 20 but I'm pretty sure the 6-9-11 was the wrong pick. Without calculating exactly which spots will be gone, it's easy to see that you won't get nor brick nor extra wheat on the way back, most likely u're getting some spot in the middle so sheep and wood, or the 8-10 and 8-3. 6-9-11 doesn't go well with any of those, so it's clearly the wrong pick. Either 9-5-10 wheat, 6-3-4, and even 9-5-10 brick or 3-5-8 were better picks.
Firstly, thank you for consistently uploading videos and contributing to the Catan community.
It may feel like everyone rips into you when you make mistakes. I like to think it comes from the right place and they just want to see you improve.
On to the game:
You need to more accurately predict your 2nd settlement, also known as your "outs". You do talk about this but your though process is not concrete.
For example:
You can reasonably say that,
5910x2, 643, 834/10, 6411, 6511/12 will be taken - that is a total of 6 spots
For the 7th, I would analyse, 83, 84, 810x2, 4911, 6311.
It is most likely the 6311 will not be open for you. Besides that, it is likely that one of these spots will be your outs (open for you).
So if you are considering 6411, you need to consider if these outs will compliment this placement which they do not.
Following this process, 5910 was my pick. 84 or 4911/2 are good outs for you.
When it doubt go for high production. Production wins games. You keep going for low production setups without justification to break the rule.
Game was probably lost in the placement
poor first placement, 643 or 5910 all day give scarcity of grain
9-5-10 should have been first picked, obviously not 3rd. Gives way too much to red here
ok im a top 200 and not top 20 but I'm pretty sure the 6-9-11 was the wrong pick. Without calculating exactly which spots will be gone, it's easy to see that you won't get nor brick nor extra wheat on the way back, most likely u're getting some spot in the middle so sheep and wood, or the 8-10 and 8-3. 6-9-11 doesn't go well with any of those, so it's clearly the wrong pick.
Either 9-5-10 wheat, 6-3-4, and even 9-5-10 brick or 3-5-8 were better picks.