Betfair trading | Lay to back (L2B) strategy | Fully automated bot
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- Опубліковано 4 гру 2020
- Here is a full list of all the automation templates you can download for in-play horse racing on Bet Angel - www.betangel.com/forum/viewfo...
In this video, I discussed the very popular lay to back Betfair trading strategy, but with a twist.
We add an extra couple of components to this strategy, that you may be familiar with. But we also completely automation it.
I discuss the strategy and show you how you can look for selections and then apply them using the specialist tools in Bet Angel.
Bet Angel can automatically trade for you, but in this video, I look specifically at how you would set up a fully automated bot but also use the 'nominated' selection feature to allow you to do your own research and make specific market selections on Guardian.
This gives you the benefit of completely automating your activity so you don't need to be sat in front of your desk. But also giving you full control on which selections you want to pick for the automation to act on.
We also add a little component in here to avoid the period when the horse race starts and your selection may get a good or back break.
Enjoy!
#betfair #betfairtrading #horseracing - Спорт
Great Video Peter! It sure would be nice to see some some more creative videos as you mentioned. Hope that you can make that happen! Much health and prosperity to all of the Bet Angel Family.
Many thanks for your comment. It's much appreciated.
Very good Peter, would definitely like to see what you come up with in more depth and detail, if you were to do a follow up video. Thanks.
This is exactly what I was looking for today Peter thank you. I would love to see more indeoth conditions for this BOT too please if you haven't already covered it....goes off to hunt for it....
Thanks Peter for the video
Yes please do another with more rules deployed within the automation file. 👍
Noted!
Great Video Peter, yes please do a follow up video.
Will do
Thanks again for the video. On a different note, how are you dealing with pre off trading given the time between races is so minimal ( often overlapping) and the liquidity arriving so late? More races, less time between then makes reading the flow v difficult, unless of course you are like Peter! But seriously would love to know your thoughts. Thanks again for the informative video and yes would be interested in seeing the rule get more complex.
Brilliant presentation. Please do the follow up videos you were thinking of doing.
Thanks, will do!
Great video
Thanks,more complex will be great. And additional informations about gap and why these rules will not be good on it.
Noted
Great video Peter, please do a follow up with other conditions etc.
Will do
Thanks. Is there a video on football bot strategies with examples?
Hello which would be the best lay video to follow as the 2 are so different in many ways? Thank you.
Yes would like to see a follow up video. Do you also do any automation using excel?
Yes I do! But it's much harder to explain than the automation. Haven't done an Excel video for a while, so one is probably due.
Great video Peter, is there an exit point in this automation as a stop loss if the price moves the wrong way? Or can this be added?
Yes Mr Webb. How about a stop loss as you are laying first and quite a sizable chunk of the bank will be comitted to this strategy compareded to D.O.B sTRATEGY. Excellent Content so far Thanks and HNY 2021
I see this as a high-risk strategy, I think it'd be better to back first a horse that's likely to be prominent then lay at shorter odds. The reason is obvious, when the lay bet goes in first, your liability is way higher. For instance in the first Sandown race you show as an example you have a liability of £70 to win £2... so this has to work 35 times to every 1 time it fails, or you're not in a net positive position! Imagine the horse you're laying looks really good or something happens to the favourite like it jumps the first hurdle really badly and immediately drifts, this will send yours shooting in in price and it may go on to win and you never get the back bet matched. Surely this will happen way more than 1 in 35 times I'd say.
Hi Peter, in that strategie we can do stop stop loss? The stake is 70, but if the loss is 30, automatic hedge?
Been watching your videos for years now, still haven't pulled the trigger.
You never post a video that guides potential traders from start to finish. It's always ambiguous information that can't be formulated into a consistent strategy
I actually have done this, but they are often the least-watched and liked videos.
Over the last year, I've deliberately published videos that talk traders through very specific set-ups, what I'm looking for and why.
Trading is ambiguous by nature and that's something you need to come to terms with if you want to trade successfully.
If you are looking for something that makes good money and has little or no risk, that's almost impossible to find. Anybody who publishes something like this isn't being open with you.
Also, you should apply your own edge to a market. I'll push you right to the point where you can apply that. But only you can put that final piece in the puzzle.
Hi Peter, great video!
I’d like you to create another video with the other technical bits (you mentioned in this video)
What are the best ways to offset any risk in running if possible? I’ve got a similar bot but I’m good at finding horses to drift in running, but say the horse gets off to a flyer and drops from 8 (sp) to 5.5 and continues to go lower and wins the race, what are the ways you could limit the exposure automated? I get you might not want to give too much away, but hey, worth a try 🤷♂️👌
Good question
@Daniel Bryans There's an option in the software called something like Stop Loss. Let's say you bet £20, when the horse starts to come in and you start to lose your money (going in red), then that option will trigger. If you set the Stop Loss at £15 when the price reach 15, it will trigger and it will red up all selections at £15, instead of you losing all £20.
That was just an example...
@@Ventcis by that point you may as well lay the whole £20 in the hope the horse gets pipped... also even if you have a stop loss at £15 the market is moving so fast at that point that there's a good chance you'll get slippage and your closing bet in the market won't be matched.
If i want to red out on this when it exceeds a certain loss would i fire it once only or more than once using automation. Would it always guarantee to red out or could it go through it for a much larger loss.
Automation appeals, as does speed and accuracy of execution, sitting waiting and watching does not. What was the end result of that day? Your criteria for the selections? - you may have explained that so which/what videos? tia.
Hi Pete I remember seeing in one of your videos that you have a automated bot that you have running in the background and have for a while that's slowly earnt you 70k or so. Have you done a video of your bot before/can you?
Creating a profitable bot takes place over time and often take many revisions. So it's not something that can really be summaries in a ten minute video.
I've published a lot of content around specific strategies, so you would generally start there and build out specific strategies.
But also remember that there isn't one strategy that suits every market. So you have to make sure you apply the right strategy to the right market.
Hi peter, which race meeting/grounds do favourites perform the worst?
Draw bias can play a hand in these sorts of things. So course like Chester and Beverley can be interesting to look at, but of course lots of that depends on how is drawn where. There are so many areas to explore and niches to look at.
How do I use a factor instead to qualitatively represent the difference in teams ability from divisions when pricing football match up instead of removing the teams that were relegated/promoted because of the standard of teams being different they faced ?
average the performance of the relegated teams and apply that the promoted teams. when the promoted teams have played at least 6 games in the current season start to use those stats (goals for, against, points). i weight the stats 50:50 at the 6 games stage then sliding adjustment to 0:100 at 10 games.
Is it possible to download bot files to save and use on mac? Or do I need to download a copy of windows excel for Mac to save too?
You can use the following methods to access Bet Angel on a Mac: -
www.betfairtradingblog.com/betfair-software-apple-mac-ios-iphone-ipad-tablet/
Got a Question
Summer flat season 8-18 odd horses no outright fave pre race under say 1.5
Lay 1.11 the entire field before race off
I believe at least 1 in 6 to 1 in 8 fall apart and lose once Layed in play at 1.1/1.11
Today 1.03 and 1.06 lost ( depressing ); played another off but not all 3, other one lost under 1.3
I'm thinking Laying the field at 1.11 as a common strategy , seams people like 1.03 and 1.25 and 1.5 but liquidity low under 1.1 guessing
Trying using TPD to pick and choose when you lay. The 'old' method of just pinging the orders in, isn't good enough nowadays.
A bit off piste Peter have you had any experience lately of football markets despite being back in play for quite a few minutes, remaining suspended?
Y, happens a bit too often. Another example tonight in La Liga, this is usually the reason - www.betfairtradingblog.com/betfair-football-trading-scout/
@@betangeltv A great read that, very interesting, thank you. The Phil Brown story, very funny. Canny result tonight. I think your lad had a hand in the back, just outside, but the leg contact I think was on the line which is what I think VAR have looked at. Riding high in the league, fantastic, keep some of them cartel clubs out of it lol ;-)
8:56 Peter says this is not available to everyone. So HOW do I get these fancy coloured bars to display on the betfair interface? I use Timeform but cant see any graphic runner info. Its all text.
Betfair are just testing this at the moment it seems, but if you have Timeform you just need to look at the pace maps which are essentially exactly the same thing. I including a graphic of that on the video.
This was my question as well 🙂👍🏻
How does one place a lay bet on any horse that fits a certain criteria eg a random horse with odds greater than 100/1. I tried -lay all selections- ( rule is > 100) but the -best market price- is greyed out and requires a fix price. Does this mean if i have the fixed price at 100/1 then it will only take that price despite the rule.
It should be pretty simple to set this up, but are you saying can it pick random horse? Or are you nominating a selection.
If you visit the support page with have an AI trained on the software, so it should be able to guide you through most of the initial steps. But you can contact our human support for any problems you come across during that process.
@@betangeltv cheers, ill do that.
yes a random horse that fits a crieria e.g. >100/1 whatever the runner
Be careful gentlement, if we take the first race explained through as an example, if you lost (i.e. the horse you shorted ended up winning) it would be £79 of loss for you. As you also saw, when things go your way, the greening operation makes sure you win £2 across all horses. For this particular automated strategy to work you would need to have at least 40 victories and 1 loss (all other things being equal) to say that you made a quid. The loss and win money of course are different for each race and horse you pick, but the example I am giving is a rough evaluation of how reliable your strategy needs to be to classify as "profitable".
I have explained this extensively in other videos. This is a high strike rate strategy.
@@betangeltv how high? Higher than 40 to 1, i.e. ~97.56%? Also here I am not trying to shoot down this particular strategy. I think the biggest reason behind this video is presenting the power of the Automated trading capabilities of BetAngel. And I can personally attest to that, i.e. that it is truly powerful and very useful. I only want to warn people that everything needs to be taken into account and for a successful strategy to be found, the strike rate and the expected return needs to be taken into account for long term profit.
Did you mention whether this strategy is profitable or not?
All strategies are profitble if you depoy them correctly. But by the same measure the opposite is true!
I deploy a range of strategies across the markets each day, deliverately skipping races where experiance tells me it isn't profitable. On that list that you see displayed on this video was profitable.
Rule No. 1
‘Whatever you do , only go in play once you plan the trade and stick to the trade the plan . ‘ those words keep ringing my ears, from your previous videos on this topic.
Q? How many times should the greening rule trigger if I set it up without hedging.Does it have a negative effect when let to trigger multiple times due to the in play delay.
I notice it takes some few seconds for the P/L to capture the effect of the trigger . I would see a red p/l thinking the price moved away without matching my bet , only to be pleased to see it turning green a second or two later.
Y, there is a problem with trying to hedge in-play as the bet delay in bets can really mess things up. If you hedge twice quickly then you may 'double hedge' and cause yourself a bit of pain. So it's generally not recommended.
But if you are trying to do that, you should think carefully about where in the race to do it. Trying in the last few furlongs is going to be really tricky.
Thanks👍🏼
Do you think there is enough in play liquidity to do this for 100s?
P Geezy much depends on the meeting, there will be a huge difference between say a midweek meeting at Newton Abbot and a Saturday meeting at Cheltenham. So more than likely you'll have the liquidity you mentioned on a busy Saturday. Having said that you can have busy weekday meetings as well. Apparently 1/3 of money traded on Betfair is in-running although you wouldn't think so when you watch some in-running markets.
That's a fair answer to that question. But you should also consider the stage of the race, a lot of money gets matched late on and that can distort over all volumes.
@@MichaelWilliams-mo1vv yeah the reason you don't think a third gets matched in-running is because a disproportionate amount is on like 1.01 and the other very short prices for instance.
Out of all the automation strategies you personally use, is there a favourite, over the years, which has proved to be the most profitable?
Frankel
Not particulary, they all have there day in the sunshine, but some fade as the market shifts around and new ones come to the fore. My focus has always settled on pre-off as the big money earner as it's the lowest risk. But I do run a few in-play strategies and they seem more susceptible to unexpected change.
Be very careful with this one folks as there’s no automated get out. If your selection doesn’t drift by 10 ticks for whatever reason and goes on to win, you will lose potentially many times your stake depending on the odds. In fact the last example on this video had not been matched and showed a potential loss of £39. Unlike Peter to not cover this off. I think you’d be advised to automate in a time based green all depending on the length of the race.
I have covered this extensively in other videos. Difficult to shoe horn everything into one video without it lasting hours.
Bet Angel I know it’s comprehensively covered in other videos as I have watched most of them including those on the Academy. I thought it worth mentioning here for those that haven’t.
See my reply above.
@@betangeltv Perhaps a part 2 to this covering a get out strategy for us newbies. Thanks Peter
I always wanted to do this, but back at half the price with double the stake. Tried it with Excel but the price in running was too volatile. I still do it successfully manually. Anybody got a more reliable method?
Do you mean dobbing, of have I mis-read that?
@@betangeltv I don't know what dobbing is. The back bet is just a way out if the horse seems like winning.
I actually looked it up. The dobbing I've seen is back to lay. My 'dobbing' is where the second bet causes a loss, and I rely on the selection not reaching half its price.
would be good to have a diagrammatical display of what the bot is doing like a flow chart
Ultimatlely thats were you start when creating automation, or a list of rules that you construct before lining them up in the editor.
As I see it, These actions are a combination of good old Human common sense & using the ..." BOT"...just like an old fashioned hand held calculator. Given this reality, the BOT needs it's hand held !!!.
The big benefit of automation is that it fulfils everything precisely to your instruction, so you get pure feedback on what you are doing.
If you don't use automation you can insert biases into your strategies, that's often the key issue.
Has anyone successfully built an automated strategy which makes money. I have been trying for 3 months with no luck. Thinking of giving it up.
There are loads of successful automated strategies. The thing to remember is that market selection is part of the process.
You should endless search for one strategy that works on everything. That's the hardest thing to do.
@@betangeltv Hmm.....I agree, there is no way, one strategy fits all the markets. I am just trying to automate the GB markets, because of high liquiduty, and till now its proven impossible.