I hope people understand what I'm trying to say here. I'm not saying that value betting can't work; I'm saying it's a huge leap to go from something that is risk-free to something that is quite risky and probably unsuitable for people not familiar with the concept. It's quite a volta face.
I have always wanted to try value betting. However I think I'm now probably not going to bother. Having said that I do feel value betting and betfair scalping can be similar in some ways and this is why. Know when to get out. In your graph Peter if you had of got out at round about the highest point then this value betting would have been profitable. It's the same as what I see on the horses now and more so on the dogs. If I see a price coming in for no reason I will lay, however... If you continue (meaning don't take the profit) it can and does go against you or at least we will lose some profit. I've only been trading horses for 2.5 years (in decimals lol) but I do feel the point is valid. Know when to get out. By the way Peter you have a few haters I see for some reason but I'm not one of them.
A lot of these matched betting companies are throwing customers to the wolves in favour of their bottom line unfortunately. I was a matched betting customer for a couple of years and made the transition to a very well reviewed and highly rated value betting service. I've been successful at that and one of the biggest things about that transition was education around variance, bank roll management, expected levels of max drawdown at different staking points etc. Matched betting companies are selling these services to customers for big one off payments and most will not be able to extract value out the price they're charged once you factor in account and stake restrictions. They know this and it's why these models are priced yearly. The service I joined is charged monthly and comes with recommended minimum bankrolls to use the tools they offer. The other issue that seems to be completely ignored by these companies is the tragedy of the commons. These edges are not big enough to sustain large customer bases and their customers are losing two fold.
As someone who's only just started matched betting, I find your advice to be extremely helpful. I was considering upgrading to an expensive package that promoted value betting, but I'll think twice about that now and will stick to MB as I'm sure that it will be a good gateway to getting to grips with Betfair trading, eventually. I greatly appreciate your videos and will learn valuable lessons from them. Thank you, and keep up the great work. 🙂👍
@@shanemiddleton1805Can be in some ways, but the ways you are describing is just trading in general. Scalping is a trading-strategy that can be applied on all markets, where as what Peter means, with value betting it's a set and forget bet on the basis that you have a mathematical edge. That's the reason why you will have losing-streaks as well bc even if you flip a coin and the chance it will be heads is 53% of the time, you will still lose 47% of the time. With value-betting you are relying on just a couple of % edge over the market to cover your losses, commission and or your tipping service. The commission part is also the reason why value-betting is usually done by finding the best odds at bookmakers. This will typically put you on their radar as well since your staking will be out of the ordinary and so will be the times you place a bet. This bc you have a mathematical stake with decimals bc of the calculated edge and you will have to take the odds when they favour you most, which can be days out of the event.
Thanks Peter ' I've been thinking of giving this Matched Betting a Go ' BUT " I wasn't sure how many Bookies you had to Open Up " But listening to YOU " You've probably saved me a Lot of time, and maybe money 🙂
Nailed it. Matched betting is risk free if done properly and they are now branching away from that. Value betting has been around a lot longer than matched. I've been successful as a value bettor but not quite so good as a trader as there are different parameters. Don't know if you've ever done a video about it but could be a good one.
Well said Peter. I did dare suggest to one of those companies they were taking the p with their price and how on earth could this really ever work. I understand these big companies need t o change their business models to adapt to the barren desert which is MB these days (final glory days were really as long ago as 2018) but this was nothing but a tipping service. I also mentioned this to a well known You Tuber/Trader (who I did admire for a long time) that this was just a very very expensive tipping service which would destroy the markets and value... Glad someone like you has brought this to everyone's attention.
@ 3:20 mins peter says he’s often done videos on “how you can price up the markets” but after scrolling 5 hours through his thousands of videos. I couldn’t find any where he prices up a horse race, or generally finding value or calculating it. Can anyone provide a link to these video.
I've mainly done videos on Football and Tennis as they are easy to explain, horse racing is a lot harder though. I did do a neat one on how to dervive place odds from win odds though. I can do a video on a simplistic pricing model for a horse racing, but it's tricky to do something that wont be viewed as a little lightweight.
I think that would be a great idea Peter, since the majority of your viewers trade horse racing markets. Your 20yrs+ expertise could shed some light on how value odds are created, even if it is a simplistic pricing model. I’ve yet to see anyone on UA-cam make a video on creating value odds on horse racing . So who can really complain about any ideas. I’d gladly welcome the naysayers.
I thought I’d cracked it with a system backing the favourites on Greyounds using the Fibonacci staking plan, started small with a £50.00 bank, 3 weeks later that was up to £750.00, 5 days later ….bust. Back to the drawing board, gutted.
Great video. I also found it very misleading of outplayed/Oddsmonkey to be pushing things like eachway no lay and the "value betting", considering they firstly promoted matched betting as "not gambling". Would personally like to see them investigated by the gambling commission
@@drofheim well their pricing would suggest otherwise, if you are still using their MB services you are being absolutely pushed down the 'new' route. They have to change as MB is on life support so it won't be long before you have to fight hard to find their other services.
I agree! Value betting on the exchange is sometimes difficult. I tried something myself without software, knowledge or anything to do with BSP. After 6 months of value betting nearly every horse race nearly every day, I was running at a loss and it all seemed impossible. Then after 18 months my original bankroll had increased X5. I just trusted myself and trusted the maths over time. Believe in the maths!
>lf without software, knowledge or anything to do with BSP. > value betting nearly every horse race nearly every day, > after 18 months my original bankroll had increased X5. I just trusted myself and trusted the maths over time. What maths? you're ignoring BSP, by your own admission Value betting means you're beating the CLV (closing line value). Without any knowledge, ignoring price, means you don't know what you're doing, whilst ignoring whether you have value or not in the first place
@7:52 are these percentages based on the odds of the Betfair starting price? what would be the percentage difference if you took the odds at 0? I'm guessing it would workout something similar as the final number there would just be more variance in the differences for each month but the final number would be about the same?
Thank you as always Peter. Any chance you could produce Bet Angel for a MacBook Pro with M3 chip....? There must be a few people like me who use Apple and can't stand Windows.
Peter, for rather a long time I’ve been very confused as to whether you need value prices in order to successfully trade sports betting markets and was wondering if you’d be kind enough to put me out of my misery? I think I once heard you say on one of your many videos that in fact you don’t need value prices to profitably trade and that’s also what I believe. I’m just rather surprised to find that it’s seemingly not easy to find the answer to this fundamental question.
You don't, but some of that depends on what you are doing and when. Before an event starts you don't need to indentify value at all, you are just trading volatility. So you don't really care about the price, just what's happening to it. However, if you are doing something in-play then value can play a part. Finding a value bet and trading it in-play will amplify the value as if it's mis-priced as it has to reflect that in the eventual outcome. Not sure if I've explained that well enough? But if you can find value, that 'converts' during the inplay period so it will improve your trading strategy. Though again, it's not essential. I have an in-play horse racing strategy that just relies on volatility.
@@betangeltvThank you. Unfortunately by saying in play “value can play a part” it’s not totally clear if it’s in fact necessary. However I believe the part that applies to what I’m doing is before an event starts. The reason I’m asking is because for twenty years I’ve made a comfortable living trading outright markets with bookmakers throughout the year and because I’m placing 1000s of bets a year I just can’t for the life of me see where the value is coming from. I very much believe therefore that in long term markets you don’t need value at all and they’re also not generally volatile and that therefore they are very easy to trade. (I believe most traders want volatility so that’s another interesting/puzzling thing I think?) And I’ve now reached the stage where I want to be certain what’s going on and so am intent on commissioning a study on trading and betting on outright markets. (I say trading but that’s another question isn’t it? Can you in fact trade outright markets when you can’t lay them? Obviously I believe you can)
Sorry peter you are talking out of your arse here on some points. As you said the market is very efficient so if we can routinely find odds at bookmakers over betfair prices like boosts and acca bonuses it is very easy to find value. Coupled with bankroll strategy its very simple and you will profit in the long run. Yes bookmakers can limit you, fine. It seems this is an agenda to get people back to laying on the exchange with traditional matched betting so you can mop up the poor guys liability for your own financial gain. The sooner people stop feeding traders with software on betfair the better. I hope the liquidity keeps drying up.
It's Fugazi... Did my Forum comment prompt this? Great video. I think there are websites that do find value quite well. The catch is that you get gubbed by the bookmaker very quickly. That's the catch. What they are offering is legitimate. One way to find value is post arbitrage opportunities as value (exchange lay price lower than bookies). Which is exactly why you get gubbed.
@@betangeltv Ah, nothing exciting. Just a guy wanting to make a bot to find arbitrage opportunities between exchanges. Pointed him to Oddsmonkey but explained he is wasting his time mostly
hmmm...judging by how quickly i got limited even 2-3 years ago once i arbed/value bet, doubt you'll be able to make any significant amount of money before getting restricted. Doubt you'll have time to make your subspription money back before you'll get severely restricted or even worse....before real variance plays out leaving you potentially well out of pocket. Sure way to get ordinary people chasing losses and getting them into bad gambling habbits
For once I watched the full video and found myself nodding along [not nodding off 😅] with what you were saying. There are a lot of people out there bigging up value betting as the next big money making scheme ... Its not. For all the reasons that you describe, long term it can't and wont win you money. i'm now gubbed from 22 bookies, but new ones pop up on line regularly. So Matched Betting is still my No1 earner, just not as much as it once was. Pet accounts anyone ?
I appreciate your insights! It’s true that the hype around value betting can be misleading. Matched betting definitely has its advantages, especially when you know how to navigate the landscape!
Well said Peter... and they are really pushing the big lucky 15 winners on their Facebook pages... people getting sucked into it with very limited knowledge
This is the part I find most abhorrent the Lucky 15 angle. I have always hated OM and PA for destroying arbing and Match Betting, this new product though absolutely takes the p
@@PaulNicolasIII What is abhorrent about it? OP's marketing video for their 'Lucky Finder' is highly misleading as it implies you'll be raking in the cash after a few bets, but there's no denying that compounding value in multiples will, mathematically speaking, result in a higher return in the long run.
@@WeWereGoodOnce I think we agree actually. I mean any MB company promoting just backing ACCAs should be ashamed of themselves. I find it hard to believe anyone thinks it's a good idea to back multi leg ACCAs find one game/horse/result is hard enough never mind 4!!! Hate OP SS has to be the smuggest person on the planet.
The last video I publised was comparing two trades, one after another. These videos are very valuable if you are trying to learn to trade as I get the time to talk through them in depth. ua-cam.com/video/7oxVWHVYdoE/v-deo.html Also see: - ua-cam.com/video/q6eN7u326TI/v-deo.html There are a lot of these on the channel
@ I truly appreciate your in depth videos, i would just love to see you do like a half day/full day of Live trading so we can see the raw aspects of Live trading/thinking process.
You wouldn't actually see that. I would parallel it with trying to learn Tennis by watching a major tournament. It's entertaining but you never actually learn how to do it. You need a coach for that and lots of practice. I used to trade live at my courses, but it was impossible for people to know what was going on unless I slowed it right down, at which point you can no longer trade effectively. So you learn that people need to practice key methods, styles and so on, then put them into practice one by one. That's the best way to learn. I've got loads of videos on specific styles and methods, so its all there if you want it.
You can lay at any price you want. I frequently see prices laid at 1.01 especially in markets with low liquidity / long time before In-Play. Just don’t be surprised if you don’t get a match if you lay lower than a soft bookie.
@@betangeltv Ah, those were the days. All my profits ended up at one bookmaker in Jamaica who didn't pay out for about 5 years, then sent a cheque with my name as Tony rather than Anthony which my bank wouldn't accept. Fun times!
All these value bet services are doing is taking sharp book prices (pin, bm, circa) avging a sharp price, then comparing against vs soft book odds and pinging any +ev spots which you will take on the soft book. They are not identifying value through some type of advanced model or any type of origination (there are tipsters that do that though). Yes you need a lot of accounts to make it sustainable because limitation is always going to happen, but you will get way more out of each account doing this than just using them for promotions and dumping them. I'm not sure about the horse ones, probably just doing the same with the betfair exchange price movements and pinging ev in that way. But yes it is simple you are sorta just complicating it a bit or not really understanding how these ev services/tools work. It's all just the sharp bookies being more efficient than the slow moving soft sites that kick you out, none of these services are giving you bets to place on the exchange or pinnacle.
I agree, that's all it is. I sort of felt explaning soft and sharp books was beyond this video. But it's a completely valid observation and of course, if you hammer soft books, your account will be closed in double quick time.
@@betangeltv Yep your account will get closed, but for someone new to betting running through all UK bookies you can make 10k-20k so considering the skillset is near to none, it's not that bad. I know plenty of people without any origination doing this approach for a living whilst just mass buying accounts and they are making a lot more than most originators I know, who play exclusively at sharp sites. but ye it's an entirely different game.
Liked the statistical explanations. I've found myself using a trial for a month and scrambling to log in to bookmakers to get a bet on. Some can manage in time, but most tend to have changed by the time I log in to the bookmakers. Takes quite a lot of time coming in and out of browser tabs and can be frustrating (realise some are automated which helps with reduced time). Agree about considering the subscription price versus the amount of time needed to make a profit.
@@angussizzle Thats the main problem. By the time you try to get in price is gone. So you end up sitting for hours to place one bet. I remember a while ago a bought this software EwSniper, that solved this problem as it places Ew bets straight away and it's all automatic, unfortunately all my accounts got closed after 2 months, saying that I made very good profit over this 2 months without single click.
Good call Peter, this is big news for sure and in the worst possible way for matched betting sites and services. Clearly, exploitation is becoming a more appealing option for these sites as bookmakers (and the gambling white paper) ban and limit more punters. They're now willing to take your money for nothing. Don't be a mug! * * * Peter, on another note, my only reservation here is that betfair trading is challenging for the same reasons you list solely for value betting: - you must be better than the market (a lot better I would add personally) - you need an edge that can overcome frictional costs - you must face losing runs (variance) This is just in the interest of fairness and not that you're wrong with what you're driving at. For one thing I'd agree that the more volatile faster moving markets are the less efficient ones.
I was watching the interview with Ryan delves on trade mate sports he profits have declined since 2021 year on year not worth the risk bookies don't pay out 😮
There is no risk in matched betting other than eventually having your accounts gubbed. I made 18k in 15months a few years ago. Now I just make pocket money from a few lesser known Bookies. Nothing good lasts forever, make Hay while the Sunshine [metaphorically speaking of course 😅]
For clarity, I repeat, I have not deleted ANY comments. I often think it can be quite an eye-opener for channel viewers to see the comments I get in both directions.
Big respect for what you've achieved in the exchange markets, but I think you might be a little off in your assumptions about how these services operate and and what kind of numbers they can put up. Would be open to discussing this in more detail if you're interested. I can likely clarify some of the questions you raised at the end of the video.
Based on the comments to this video it looks like all these services are doing is taking the prices from sharp books and looking at soft books and saying it's value. This isn't what I know value betting to be. Of course, I'm always open to dialogue and further dicussion and looking deeper. But having spent 20+ years scouring for value where ever I can find it. I'm just not convinced it's this easy. A true value system would say something like, our models say this has an X% of winning, therefore if you can find a price above this value your bet is on. That's what I would expect.
@@betangeltv to be honest, most of the services that are being promoted by the matched betting companies have essentially reverse engineered algorithms developed by other companies for calculating derivative markets (place markets in horse racing, football markets like BTTS and handicaps etc) usually utilising the more liquid markets (Horse winners, 1x2 in football etc) as a means of calculating them. The past few years have seen a big decline in books offering boosts and such that can be straight arbed against a liquid exchange market, instead preferring markets that are more complex to calculate - so often finding value in these prices isn't as simple as checking the pinnacle/betfair line and removing the margin, requires a bit more calculation. Like you alluded to in this video though, mass marketing these algorithms forces bookmakers to remove these exploitable inefficiencies from their markets, so it will just be a spiral of diminishing returns for users of these services. This will reduce the value available to exploit with these algorithms which just compounds the problem by further increasing the volatility, which can already be exceptionally high for some of the things that are being marketed by Sam and his pals. Ultimately it just comes down to mass marketing something that's totally unsuited to a mass audience, both in terms of the mindset and resources you need to participate as well as the markets you'll be betting into simply not being able to tolerate the volume that will be put through them.
This is a bit rich coming from someone who has made their living selling trading software to losers for years on hopes and dreams isn’t it Peter? Have saved a screengrab because you’ll probably delete and not answer.
LOL, I haven't made my living flogging software to losers. I have made millions Betfair trading however, and so have many Bet Angel users. Bet Angel wouldn't exist if people didn't have a use for it or didn't find trading profitable. Betting exchanges completely transformed the betting landscape and I'm very proud to have been part of that story. I'm also happy to talk openly and honestly about my experiences, good and bad. My main point in this video is that it's a huge leap of faith to go from risk free to very risky for people who simply are not familiar with value betting.
@@betangeltv You say you have but there's no evidence of it unlike the millions you made from selling software? At least be honest this is another Peter Webb advert for BetAngel, nothing more. You know that BetAngel users have collectively lost a lot more than they have won, its disingenuous to claim otherwise.
Contrary to your throw away comments, I can prove it. There is plenty of evidence. Have a bet with me. Put £10,000 in an escrow account and I'll get the proof signed off by a notary and I'll donate your money to charity less costs. If I can't prove it, I'll donate the money to charity.
@@betangeltv Why do you need £10,000 to prove it? You said you were happy to be honest? I didn't mean to upset you, Peter. I am sorry but the comments aren't throw away are they? Thousands of BetAngel users will have lost more than the select few who qualify for a premium charge and your company accounts will be on companies house will they not? I wish you every success and did not hope to offend.
@@betangeltv Why do you need £10,000 to prove it? You said you were happy to be honest? I didn't mean to upset you, Peter. I am sorry but the comments aren't throw away are they? Thousands of BetAngel users will have lost more than the select few who qualify for a premium charge and your company accounts will be on companies house will they not? I wish you every success and did not hope to offend.
I hope people understand what I'm trying to say here. I'm not saying that value betting can't work; I'm saying it's a huge leap to go from something that is risk-free to something that is quite risky and probably unsuitable for people not familiar with the concept. It's quite a volta face.
I have always wanted to try value betting. However I think I'm now probably not going to bother. Having said that I do feel value betting and betfair scalping can be similar in some ways and this is why. Know when to get out. In your graph Peter if you had of got out at round about the highest point then this value betting would have been profitable. It's the same as what I see on the horses now and more so on the dogs. If I see a price coming in for no reason I will lay, however... If you continue (meaning don't take the profit) it can and does go against you or at least we will lose some profit. I've only been trading horses for 2.5 years (in decimals lol) but I do feel the point is valid. Know when to get out. By the way Peter you have a few haters I see for some reason but I'm not one of them.
That's not what you actually say in the video though. At one point you say you're not convinced there's any value in value betting!
A lot of these matched betting companies are throwing customers to the wolves in favour of their bottom line unfortunately. I was a matched betting customer for a couple of years and made the transition to a very well reviewed and highly rated value betting service. I've been successful at that and one of the biggest things about that transition was education around variance, bank roll management, expected levels of max drawdown at different staking points etc.
Matched betting companies are selling these services to customers for big one off payments and most will not be able to extract value out the price they're charged once you factor in account and stake restrictions. They know this and it's why these models are priced yearly. The service I joined is charged monthly and comes with recommended minimum bankrolls to use the tools they offer.
The other issue that seems to be completely ignored by these companies is the tragedy of the commons. These edges are not big enough to sustain large customer bases and their customers are losing two fold.
As someone who's only just started matched betting, I find your advice to be extremely helpful. I was considering upgrading to an expensive package that promoted value betting, but I'll think twice about that now and will stick to MB as I'm sure that it will be a good gateway to getting to grips with Betfair trading, eventually. I greatly appreciate your videos and will learn valuable lessons from them. Thank you, and keep up the great work. 🙂👍
@@shanemiddleton1805Can be in some ways, but the ways you are describing is just trading in general. Scalping is a trading-strategy that can be applied on all markets, where as what Peter means, with value betting it's a set and forget bet on the basis that you have a mathematical edge. That's the reason why you will have losing-streaks as well bc even if you flip a coin and the chance it will be heads is 53% of the time, you will still lose 47% of the time. With value-betting you are relying on just a couple of % edge over the market to cover your losses, commission and or your tipping service. The commission part is also the reason why value-betting is usually done by finding the best odds at bookmakers. This will typically put you on their radar as well since your staking will be out of the ordinary and so will be the times you place a bet. This bc you have a mathematical stake with decimals bc of the calculated edge and you will have to take the odds when they favour you most, which can be days out of the event.
Thanks Peter ' I've been thinking of giving this Matched Betting a Go ' BUT " I wasn't sure how many Bookies you had to Open Up "
But listening to YOU " You've probably saved me a Lot of time, and maybe money 🙂
Nailed it. Matched betting is risk free if done properly and they are now branching away from that. Value betting has been around a lot longer than matched. I've been successful as a value bettor but not quite so good as a trader as there are different parameters. Don't know if you've ever done a video about it but could be a good one.
Well said Peter. I did dare suggest to one of those companies they were taking the p with their price and how on earth could this really ever work. I understand these big companies need t o change their business models to adapt to the barren desert which is MB these days (final glory days were really as long ago as 2018) but this was nothing but a tipping service.
I also mentioned this to a well known You Tuber/Trader (who I did admire for a long time) that this was just a very very expensive tipping service which would destroy the markets and value...
Glad someone like you has brought this to everyone's attention.
that other well know youtuber/trader is nothing more than a schilling prat.
Thank you Pete! Why people need people like you? Wisdom!
@ 3:20 mins peter says he’s often done videos on “how you can price up the markets” but after scrolling 5 hours through his thousands of videos. I couldn’t find any where he prices up a horse race, or generally finding value or calculating it. Can anyone provide a link to these video.
I've mainly done videos on Football and Tennis as they are easy to explain, horse racing is a lot harder though. I did do a neat one on how to dervive place odds from win odds though.
I can do a video on a simplistic pricing model for a horse racing, but it's tricky to do something that wont be viewed as a little lightweight.
He has done a few excellent ones but I couldn't find them either, if enough of us comment he'll push some links for us.
I think that would be a great idea Peter, since the majority of your viewers trade horse racing markets. Your 20yrs+ expertise could shed some light on how value odds are created, even if it is a simplistic pricing model. I’ve yet to see anyone on UA-cam make a video on creating value odds on horse racing . So who can really complain about any ideas. I’d gladly welcome the naysayers.
I would very much like to see a video on a horse racing pricing model. It’s an interesting perspective and not talked about enough.
@@tjo291of course it isn’t and it won’t be talked about as it’s the holy grail of betting .
I thought I’d cracked it with a system backing the favourites on Greyounds using the Fibonacci staking plan, started small with a £50.00 bank, 3 weeks later that was up to £750.00, 5 days later ….bust. Back to the drawing board, gutted.
All betting systems will fail long term
I know the feeling Gez "
Great video. I also found it very misleading of outplayed/Oddsmonkey to be pushing things like eachway no lay and the "value betting", considering they firstly promoted matched betting as "not gambling". Would personally like to see them investigated by the gambling commission
Value betting is optional. If you don't want it you don't have to pay for it.
@@drofheim well their pricing would suggest otherwise, if you are still using their MB services you are being absolutely pushed down the 'new' route. They have to change as MB is on life support so it won't be long before you have to fight hard to find their other services.
Thanks Peter matched betting should be used to learn the basics and build your bank, it was never going to last forever.
I agree! Value betting on the exchange is sometimes difficult.
I tried something myself without software, knowledge or anything to do with BSP.
After 6 months of value betting nearly every horse race nearly every day, I was running at a loss and it all seemed impossible.
Then after 18 months my original bankroll had increased X5. I just trusted myself and trusted the maths over time. Believe in the maths!
>lf without software, knowledge or anything to do with BSP.
> value betting nearly every horse race nearly every day,
> after 18 months my original bankroll had increased X5. I just trusted myself and trusted the maths over time.
What maths? you're ignoring BSP, by your own admission
Value betting means you're beating the CLV (closing line value).
Without any knowledge, ignoring price, means you don't know what you're doing, whilst ignoring whether you have value or not in the first place
@7:52 are these percentages based on the odds of the Betfair starting price? what would be the percentage difference if you took the odds at 0? I'm guessing it would workout something similar as the final number there would just be more variance in the differences for each month but the final number would be about the same?
These prices are taken at post time, 0 minutes.
Thank you as always Peter. Any chance you could produce Bet Angel for a MacBook Pro with M3 chip....? There must be a few people like me who use Apple and can't stand Windows.
I've got a video in production at the moment about Bet Angel on a Mac, not quite what you want. But maybe it will help.
Peter, for rather a long time I’ve been very confused as to whether you need value prices in order to successfully trade sports betting markets and was wondering if you’d be kind enough to put me out of my misery?
I think I once heard you say on one of your many videos that in fact you don’t need value prices to profitably trade and that’s also what I believe.
I’m just rather surprised to find that it’s seemingly not easy to find the answer to this fundamental question.
You don't, but some of that depends on what you are doing and when.
Before an event starts you don't need to indentify value at all, you are just trading volatility. So you don't really care about the price, just what's happening to it.
However, if you are doing something in-play then value can play a part. Finding a value bet and trading it in-play will amplify the value as if it's mis-priced as it has to reflect that in the eventual outcome.
Not sure if I've explained that well enough? But if you can find value, that 'converts' during the inplay period so it will improve your trading strategy. Though again, it's not essential.
I have an in-play horse racing strategy that just relies on volatility.
@@betangeltv I think we will need a video on this Peter. It's created big confusion.
@@betangeltvThank you. Unfortunately by saying in play “value can play a part” it’s not totally clear if it’s in fact necessary.
However I believe the part that applies to what I’m doing is before an event starts.
The reason I’m asking is because for twenty years I’ve made a comfortable living trading outright markets with bookmakers throughout the year and because I’m placing 1000s of bets a year I just can’t for the life of me see where the value is coming from.
I very much believe therefore that in long term markets you don’t need value at all and they’re also not generally volatile and that therefore they are very easy to trade. (I believe most traders want volatility so that’s another interesting/puzzling thing I think?)
And I’ve now reached the stage where I want to be certain what’s going on and so am intent on commissioning a study on trading and betting on outright markets.
(I say trading but that’s another question isn’t it? Can you in fact trade outright markets when you can’t lay them? Obviously I believe you can)
@Lifelongloser - You don't need value to trade profitably.
great video again, thank you
Glad you enjoyed it
9:07 What is the IP_R column? Implied Odds R?
Implied price, rounded
Sorry peter you are talking out of your arse here on some points. As you said the market is very efficient so if we can routinely find odds at bookmakers over betfair prices like boosts and acca bonuses it is very easy to find value. Coupled with bankroll strategy its very simple and you will profit in the long run. Yes bookmakers can limit you, fine. It seems this is an agenda to get people back to laying on the exchange with traditional matched betting so you can mop up the poor guys liability for your own financial gain. The sooner people stop feeding traders with software on betfair the better. I hope the liquidity keeps drying up.
I think Tom brownlee at bookie bashing would disagree with you ;-)
How much has Tom made, not really familiar. I'm not saying that you can't value bet. Just that leaping from risk free, to risky is a big ask.
Rewatch the video bud.
It's Fugazi... Did my Forum comment prompt this? Great video. I think there are websites that do find value quite well. The catch is that you get gubbed by the bookmaker very quickly. That's the catch. What they are offering is legitimate. One way to find value is post arbitrage opportunities as value (exchange lay price lower than bookies). Which is exactly why you get gubbed.
Greetings Fugazi, somebody contacted me on twitter to say, have you seen this? So I thought I'd investigate. What was the forum thread?
@@betangeltv Ah, nothing exciting. Just a guy wanting to make a bot to find arbitrage opportunities between exchanges. Pointed him to Oddsmonkey but explained he is wasting his time mostly
Is there a copy of this spreadsheet in the forum Peter?
The data is a derivative of taken from this - forum.betangel.com/viewtopic.php?t=29176
hmmm...judging by how quickly i got limited even 2-3 years ago once i arbed/value bet, doubt you'll be able to make any significant amount of money before getting restricted. Doubt you'll have time to make your subspription money back before you'll get severely restricted or even worse....before real variance plays out leaving you potentially well out of pocket. Sure way to get ordinary people chasing losses and getting them into bad gambling habbits
For once I watched the full video and found myself nodding along [not nodding off 😅] with what you were saying. There are a lot of people out there bigging up value betting as the next big money making scheme ... Its not. For all the reasons that you describe, long term it can't and wont win you money. i'm now gubbed from 22 bookies, but new ones pop up on line regularly. So Matched Betting is still my No1 earner, just not as much as it once was. Pet accounts anyone ?
I appreciate your insights! It’s true that the hype around value betting can be misleading. Matched betting definitely has its advantages, especially when you know how to navigate the landscape!
Looking at that graph. Have you not considered using the Kelly Criterion in the stake amount of your bets?
This is just level staking for illustrative purposes.
Is there a way to calculate EDGE given a strike rate of 20% & ROI at 20%.
Well said Peter... and they are really pushing the big lucky 15 winners on their Facebook pages... people getting sucked into it with very limited knowledge
This is the part I find most abhorrent the Lucky 15 angle. I have always hated OM and PA for destroying arbing and Match Betting, this new product though absolutely takes the p
@@PaulNicolasIII What is abhorrent about it? OP's marketing video for their 'Lucky Finder' is highly misleading as it implies you'll be raking in the cash after a few bets, but there's no denying that compounding value in multiples will, mathematically speaking, result in a higher return in the long run.
A certain Mr Berry has also been pushing the L15 recently after years of telling people to stay away from Multiples. Thirty pieces of silver anyone.
@@WeWereGoodOnce I think we agree actually. I mean any MB company promoting just backing ACCAs should be ashamed of themselves. I find it hard to believe anyone thinks it's a good idea to back multi leg ACCAs find one game/horse/result is hard enough never mind 4!!! Hate OP SS has to be the smuggest person on the planet.
I placed x5 lucky 15 today, was £27.22 down
Can you please share excel with your horse racing data?
You can download your own here - forum.betangel.com/viewtopic.php?t=29176
Will you please do a Live trading Video, can’t believe you never have done one.
you ask him to give away his edge for free ? If he does this he must be a complete idiot (he is not)
The last video I publised was comparing two trades, one after another. These videos are very valuable if you are trying to learn to trade as I get the time to talk through them in depth.
ua-cam.com/video/7oxVWHVYdoE/v-deo.html
Also see: -
ua-cam.com/video/q6eN7u326TI/v-deo.html
There are a lot of these on the channel
@ I truly appreciate your in depth videos, i would just love to see you do like a half day/full day of Live trading so we can see the raw aspects of Live trading/thinking process.
I mean like a Live stream.
You wouldn't actually see that. I would parallel it with trying to learn Tennis by watching a major tournament. It's entertaining but you never actually learn how to do it. You need a coach for that and lots of practice.
I used to trade live at my courses, but it was impossible for people to know what was going on unless I slowed it right down, at which point you can no longer trade effectively. So you learn that people need to practice key methods, styles and so on, then put them into practice one by one.
That's the best way to learn.
I've got loads of videos on specific styles and methods, so its all there if you want it.
Where are all these markets where you can lay at shorter than bookies prices?
they are not that many
You can lay at any price you want. I frequently see prices laid at 1.01 especially in markets with low liquidity / long time before In-Play. Just don’t be surprised if you don’t get a match if you lay lower than a soft bookie.
I was doing Jason's Risk Free Arbitrage about 20 years ago. Is that the same thing as Match Betting?
sounds like
Not familiar with that, but probably most likely.
@@betangeltv Ah, those were the days. All my profits ended up at one bookmaker in Jamaica who didn't pay out for about 5 years, then sent a cheque with my name as Tony rather than Anthony which my bank wouldn't accept. Fun times!
I started in the same place until a bookie refused to pay me out on a 125-1 shot. I realised my arbing days were numbered at that point.
@@betangeltv how much was the bet on 125-1 shot ?
All these value bet services are doing is taking sharp book prices (pin, bm, circa) avging a sharp price, then comparing against vs soft book odds and pinging any +ev spots which you will take on the soft book. They are not identifying value through some type of advanced model or any type of origination (there are tipsters that do that though). Yes you need a lot of accounts to make it sustainable because limitation is always going to happen, but you will get way more out of each account doing this than just using them for promotions and dumping them.
I'm not sure about the horse ones, probably just doing the same with the betfair exchange price movements and pinging ev in that way. But yes it is simple you are sorta just complicating it a bit or not really understanding how these ev services/tools work. It's all just the sharp bookies being more efficient than the slow moving soft sites that kick you out, none of these services are giving you bets to place on the exchange or pinnacle.
I agree, that's all it is. I sort of felt explaning soft and sharp books was beyond this video. But it's a completely valid observation and of course, if you hammer soft books, your account will be closed in double quick time.
@@betangeltv Yep your account will get closed, but for someone new to betting running through all UK bookies you can make 10k-20k so considering the skillset is near to none, it's not that bad. I know plenty of people without any origination doing this approach for a living whilst just mass buying accounts and they are making a lot more than most originators I know, who play exclusively at sharp sites. but ye it's an entirely different game.
Your comments add more depth and insight for others, so thanks for taking the time to make them.
Liked the statistical explanations. I've found myself using a trial for a month and scrambling to log in to bookmakers to get a bet on. Some can manage in time, but most tend to have changed by the time I log in to the bookmakers. Takes quite a lot of time coming in and out of browser tabs and can be frustrating (realise some are automated which helps with reduced time). Agree about considering the subscription price versus the amount of time needed to make a profit.
@@angussizzle Thats the main problem. By the time you try to get in price is gone. So you end up sitting for hours to place one bet. I remember a while ago a bought this software EwSniper, that solved this problem as it places Ew bets straight away and it's all automatic, unfortunately all my accounts got closed after 2 months, saying that I made very good profit over this 2 months without single click.
Good call Peter, this is big news for sure and in the worst possible way for matched betting sites and services.
Clearly, exploitation is becoming a more appealing option for these sites as bookmakers (and the gambling white paper) ban and limit more punters. They're now willing to take your money for nothing. Don't be a mug!
* * *
Peter, on another note, my only reservation here is that betfair trading is challenging for the same reasons you list solely for value betting:
- you must be better than the market (a lot better I would add personally)
- you need an edge that can overcome frictional costs
- you must face losing runs (variance)
This is just in the interest of fairness and not that you're wrong with what you're driving at. For one thing I'd agree that the more volatile faster moving markets are the less efficient ones.
I'd rather listen to an Angel than a Badger or some other Geek.
Badger is fine, used to be a lot of fun but agree on the other.
Excellent video. Can't believe Caan is promoting the service.
Thirty pieces of silver ???
Caan is trying to make money because his trading days are over. He has a second youtube channel doing real life gambling stories
Match betting is not worth the risk I've seen people who earning 25k a Yr to making only 7k this Yr what a decline 😢
Tough to even pull that much these days certainly on one single account.
I was watching the interview with Ryan delves on trade mate sports he profits have declined since 2021 year on year not worth the risk bookies don't pay out 😮
There is no risk in matched betting other than eventually having your accounts gubbed. I made 18k in 15months a few years ago. Now I just make pocket money from a few lesser known Bookies. Nothing good lasts forever, make Hay while the Sunshine [metaphorically speaking of course 😅]
Deleting comments is ridiculous 😅
Sorry I don't understand, no comments have been deleted?
has deleted mine too.
No comments have been deleted, stop lying.
No lying. I added my beta testing results and they were quickly deleted.
For clarity, I repeat, I have not deleted ANY comments. I often think it can be quite an eye-opener for channel viewers to see the comments I get in both directions.
Big respect for what you've achieved in the exchange markets, but I think you might be a little off in your assumptions about how these services operate and and what kind of numbers they can put up.
Would be open to discussing this in more detail if you're interested. I can likely clarify some of the questions you raised at the end of the video.
Based on the comments to this video it looks like all these services are doing is taking the prices from sharp books and looking at soft books and saying it's value. This isn't what I know value betting to be.
Of course, I'm always open to dialogue and further dicussion and looking deeper. But having spent 20+ years scouring for value where ever I can find it. I'm just not convinced it's this easy.
A true value system would say something like, our models say this has an X% of winning, therefore if you can find a price above this value your bet is on. That's what I would expect.
@@betangeltv to be honest, most of the services that are being promoted by the matched betting companies have essentially reverse engineered algorithms developed by other companies for calculating derivative markets (place markets in horse racing, football markets like BTTS and handicaps etc) usually utilising the more liquid markets (Horse winners, 1x2 in football etc) as a means of calculating them. The past few years have seen a big decline in books offering boosts and such that can be straight arbed against a liquid exchange market, instead preferring markets that are more complex to calculate - so often finding value in these prices isn't as simple as checking the pinnacle/betfair line and removing the margin, requires a bit more calculation.
Like you alluded to in this video though, mass marketing these algorithms forces bookmakers to remove these exploitable inefficiencies from their markets, so it will just be a spiral of diminishing returns for users of these services. This will reduce the value available to exploit with these algorithms which just compounds the problem by further increasing the volatility, which can already be exceptionally high for some of the things that are being marketed by Sam and his pals.
Ultimately it just comes down to mass marketing something that's totally unsuited to a mass audience, both in terms of the mindset and resources you need to participate as well as the markets you'll be betting into simply not being able to tolerate the volume that will be put through them.
Eugene Fama got a Nobel prize for proving markets are efficient.
I bet most bookies knew this years before he proved it!
not sports betting markets (they are semi-efficient)
Match betting is for scraps
most peopel are ok with that, better than losing money after all
This is a bit rich coming from someone who has made their living selling trading software to losers for years on hopes and dreams isn’t it Peter? Have saved a screengrab because you’ll probably delete and not answer.
LOL, I haven't made my living flogging software to losers. I have made millions Betfair trading however, and so have many Bet Angel users. Bet Angel wouldn't exist if people didn't have a use for it or didn't find trading profitable.
Betting exchanges completely transformed the betting landscape and I'm very proud to have been part of that story.
I'm also happy to talk openly and honestly about my experiences, good and bad. My main point in this video is that it's a huge leap of faith to go from risk free to very risky for people who simply are not familiar with value betting.
@@betangeltv You say you have but there's no evidence of it unlike the millions you made from selling software? At least be honest this is another Peter Webb advert for BetAngel, nothing more. You know that BetAngel users have collectively lost a lot more than they have won, its disingenuous to claim otherwise.
Contrary to your throw away comments, I can prove it. There is plenty of evidence. Have a bet with me.
Put £10,000 in an escrow account and I'll get the proof signed off by a notary and I'll donate your money to charity less costs. If I can't prove it, I'll donate the money to charity.
@@betangeltv Why do you need £10,000 to prove it? You said you were happy to be honest? I didn't mean to upset you, Peter. I am sorry but the comments aren't throw away are they? Thousands of BetAngel users will have lost more than the select few who qualify for a premium charge and your company accounts will be on companies house will they not? I wish you every success and did not hope to offend.
@@betangeltv Why do you need £10,000 to prove it? You said you were happy to be honest? I didn't mean to upset you, Peter. I am sorry but the comments aren't throw away are they? Thousands of BetAngel users will have lost more than the select few who qualify for a premium charge and your company accounts will be on companies house will they not? I wish you every success and did not hope to offend.