Thank you Sven for your thoughts on these! I had put a buy limit for AT&S at 13.98 EUR and today it was executed. Still a strong downtrend though, it will likely get cheaper.
Thank you very much. I live in Austria and have some of these companies analyzed on my tracker. Btw. Austria is in a recession. According to latest data the economy went -1.7% during the last 12 months.
Thank you Sven. Like to shed light on markets that global finance is ignoring. So your format was well appreciated. Like the comments show some players (also hidden champions) where missing. What underlines that a part 2 of your analysis will be a delight for many viewers. I personally have bought Andritz beginning of 23 because of their global foot print and wide product portfolio. Gives me an idea of resilience, something you unfortunatelly did not cover. I also have Wienerberger on my watchlist that will profit from lower interest rates some time soon. A good pick for part 2😊. Stay sceptic, Mac.
Sven, how can you say Europe is not close to a recession with so many companies firing in Germany and some oh them closing? And, do you really believe in those unemployment data? By the way - thanks for another great video!
Awesome video as always Dr. Carlin… Would love to get your take on Estée Lauder, which is also sitting at decade lows currently and stands to shoot to the upside when China comes with another stimulus bazooka. Looks like an easy 3-5x also… thoughts?
Some experts say Palantir is the next Nvidia. I intend buying $200K worth of it soon. I’m well positioned with good blue chip companies and A.I stocks but my concern is how to hedge against inevitable crash.
Not bad picks. Stocks like Tesla and NVIDIA still have some way up to go. It's always a good idea to go over it with a financial advisor. You might get new insights on how to go about it and that increases your chances of making huge profit.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfoIlo allocation
Sven, it sounds like you don't think that that the Economy throughout will get worse in the near term. Can you do a Macro Ecomomy Video for what you think will take place in Europesn Economy over the next year? Thank you
Hey Sven great video thanks for that! It's interesting to watch how the reccession is priced in much later. It feels we are already neck deep in reccession in Europe with all the margins that have decreased, oversupply, and slow consumption in the markets. 2025 does not seem like a year of recovery but a continued depression given the purchasing power is still low as inflation is very much active in gas prices, food prices, housing etc...
These cyclicals are very interesting, but as you said a real recession is still not priced in. Especially not one in the U.S.. After such an event those are dirt cheap, but timing is impossible.
Sven, how do you factor the dire state of productivity in the developed EU countries in general? I remember an older video of yours which was discussing this exact phenomenon. This could be a catalyst for all of companies you mentioned, if the workers are unproductive and paid out of proportion, the analysis of these stocks may be skewed.
Sven, a lot of people are using the risk free rate + risk premium as a discount rate when valuing stocks. My question is, with interest on debt being such a huge part of GDP, can the "risk free" rate truly be considered risk free going forward?
"Risk" in that regard is the risk of default - which simply isn't there because governments can just print more to pay that debt. It's the same risk as holding cash, plus you get a coupon - therefore risk free. Cash is basically just zero coupon and immediate maturity bond. It's the yardstick you use to measure all other assets against. Now of course that "risk of default" turns into "risk of inflation" the longer you hold that bond, i.e. when the nominal yield you get is less than inflation over that time you lose buying power in real terms. No risk in nominal terms, but basically a guarantee you lose in real terms. The coupon is there to make up for your guaranteed-due-to-inflation loss and maybe add a little extra for the risk you take (if you're lucky). Are 10Y to 30Y bonds fairly priced at around 4% right now? Probably not, personally I'd think it should be way, way, WAY higher considering the out of control spending and debt. But if (when?) the long end of the yield curve ever comes to grips with reality and rates go ballistic... what do you think the stock market would do, when nearly every valuation metric out there is based on the 10Y? I'd be surprised if equities didn't puke like it's 1929 at that point. So it kinda, sorta still is less risky than stocks (especially at insane valuations like we currently have) I guess? Personally, I think both the bond and equity markets have been completely delusional all of 2024 but what do I know...
@@maosw very thorough explanation. Thanks! So if I understand correctly, while the government won't default on their debt, inflation could go so high that the money I'm getting paid back becomes so devalued before I get them back, that it's practically the same as losing money.
@@absw6129 Exactly, it's all about the preservation of buying power. Mind you, "inflation" isn't an exact number either but more of a squishy concept: your personal inflation rate might be very different from someone else, depending on what you want/need to spend that money on at that later point in time. CPI and similar government numbers are just rough approximations, based on a basket of goods they expect an avg. consumer to buy. The weighting in that basket is kinda hilarious, changes over time and if that wasn't bad enough, they added stuff like "hedonic adjustments" to massage the numbers... the more you look into it, the crazier it gets. It's basically a made up number, yet the whole financial and monetary system builds upon it. Long story short: If the nominal amount of Dollar/Euro/Yen/whatever you get back gets you less of the thing you wanted to buy with it later on, you lost - if can buy more if it, you won. If it's a house you want and housing prices went up 10% every year in your neighborhood, doesn't matter if CPI is 2.4%. On the other hand, something like a used car - you had crazy deflation over the last two years of so, yet CPI was positive the whole time because used cars are just a tiny part of that basket. Just a constant reminder that economics isn't a hard science to begin with - it's all made up and the price of assets can move wildly from one day to another.
I Hit 110k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started last month 2024. Financial education is indeed required for more than 70% of the society in the country as very few are literate on the subject. thanks to Brooke Grace Miller for helping me achieve this
She is my family's personal broker and also a personal broker in many families I'm United States, she's a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in United states
I just withdrew my profits a week ago, To be honest it was an amazing feeling when the profits hits my wallet I wish I could reinvest but, too much bills
I was looking at Neste Oil - a refinery company that has gotten it's valuation from political eco fuels bit reduced. Probably will not be buying it as some fertilizer stock I sold with 100+ could be soon available at 3x.xx prices, those fertilizers seem to have given many nice runs, and I don't see why this time it would be much different. Just buy one when it makes sense to hold long term and watch what mr market does.
@@Value-Investing Hello Sven polish stocks like JSW and CPS are after 65% drop, the JSW is coking coal stock, and CPS is polish AT&T type of stock, are you interested? Woudl love to hear your view on this
I work at Semperit's competitor, they have bad reputation of their service, currently they got some market share offering cheap products made in far eastern countries.It's well established company , they have better automation compared to some other players.But i wouldn't invest because customers might prefer their competition if they have even slightly worse offer due to bad service reputation.Everybody knows also they already pay for something cheap.This year they were very aggresive in pricing, i don't think it is sustainable.I will watch this video carefully because i am sure Sven gifted some chances =)
Hi! Great video, but where are these companies listed? I'm Hungarian and I mostly invest with fidelity or lightyear, but neither of those platforms list Austrian companies. Does anybody have a suggestion for a more euro centric platform?
The companies are listed on the Vienna stock exchange. Some might be in Frankfurt too. I use Flatex and IBKR and both offer connections to VIE and FRA.
Sven maybe you are wrong for oil what about if never go to 50 maybe oil in gold term is the cheaper ever only the April 2020 for a day was more cheap but we know what happen after that
Sorry, as an European seeing how Europe politics, politicians, mentalities, regulations, taxes, statism, socialism... is going... I won't touch an European investment with a ten-feet pole even despite some of those businesses look good. Also, brokerage commissions and costs are higher for the EU... But thanks anyway!
🗽 Mayr-Melnhof is cyclical down.... board & paper is running bad, due to recession in Europe! For OMV I don't understand why they do not buy back the shares ?? 🤔 But in Austria the mangement is often quite bad and 50% is the state. In the long term the Austrian market is even weaker than the German market. Share price performance since 1.1.2004 (@15.10.24): ATX +129% (4.0% p.a.), DAX-K +160% (4.7% p.a.)... plus dividends 🤨 .
I'm not investing in Austria until next year. Austria is dependent on russian natural gas and the supply over the ukrainian pipeline will stop at the end of the year. They are working on solutions to substitute the russian natural gas, but they won't be finished at time. With this energy crisis especially energy consuming industries like paper or metal industries are in trouble. I have no doubt the problems will be solved, but we all know how the market handles insecurity.
@Nowhere-from Nö, there are no sactions against Russian CNG or LNG. Russia stopped delivering CNG with the Nordstream pipeline. But the delivery of CNG with the Ukrainian pipeline is higher than before. Those deliveries will stop at the end of the year.
Same, I met Elizabeth stark last year for the first time at a conference in Wilshire, after then my Life has changed for good.God bless Elizabeth stark
Here is the written overview with more stocks sven-carlin-research-platform.teachable.com/courses/stock-market-research-platform/lectures/58021969
Thank you Sven for your thoughts on these! I had put a buy limit for AT&S at 13.98 EUR and today it was executed. Still a strong downtrend though, it will likely get cheaper.
For those who are interested:
Andritz was 61 in the video, 51 now.
AT&S was 20, now 14 (another 30% down!)
Mayr-Melnhof was 85, now 70.
Thank you very much. I live in Austria and have some of these companies analyzed on my tracker. Btw. Austria is in a recession. According to latest data the economy went -1.7% during the last 12 months.
Thanks for sharing!
Thank you Sven. Like to shed light on markets that global finance is ignoring. So your format was well appreciated. Like the comments show some players (also hidden champions) where missing. What underlines that a part 2 of your analysis will be a delight for many viewers. I personally have bought Andritz beginning of 23 because of their global foot print and wide product portfolio. Gives me an idea of resilience, something you unfortunatelly did not cover. I also have Wienerberger on my watchlist that will profit from lower interest rates some time soon. A good pick for part 2😊. Stay sceptic, Mac.
Thanks for sharing your analysis Sven... Terrific video as always!
Thanks again!
What do you think about Lenzing AG?
Sven, how can you say Europe is not close to a recession with so many companies firing in Germany and some oh them closing? And, do you really believe in those unemployment data? By the way - thanks for another great video!
Did i say that, just what the data says, but things are slowing down
Awesome video as always Dr. Carlin… Would love to get your take on Estée Lauder, which is also sitting at decade lows currently and stands to shoot to the upside when China comes with another stimulus bazooka. Looks like an easy 3-5x also… thoughts?
Austria has a decent tax on dividends unfortunately. Some can be claimed back, but it should be considered before buying for the yield.
Thanks for sharing!
Some experts say Palantir is the next Nvidia. I intend buying $200K worth of it soon. I’m well positioned with good blue chip companies and A.I stocks but my concern is how to hedge against inevitable crash.
Not bad picks. Stocks like Tesla and NVIDIA still have some way up to go. It's always a good idea to go over it with a financial advisor. You might get new insights on how to go about it and that increases your chances of making huge profit.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfoIlo allocation
Her name is ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’ can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
Very interesting video, thank you Sven!
Sven, it sounds like you don't think that that the Economy throughout will get worse in the near term. Can you do a Macro Ecomomy Video for what you think will take place in Europesn Economy over the next year? Thank you
I cannot predict, but things are not going to get much better without a miracle!
Yo Sven, whats your thoughts on Burberry plc and Kering SA? Luxury slump. Also Siltronic from Germany, might be a good cyclical play.
Filmed already, will be published Thurday! Best time to buy for sure :-)
Hey Sven great video thanks for that! It's interesting to watch how the reccession is priced in much later. It feels we are already neck deep in reccession in Europe with all the margins that have decreased, oversupply, and slow consumption in the markets.
2025 does not seem like a year of recovery but a continued depression given the purchasing power is still low as inflation is very much active in gas prices, food prices, housing etc...
Thank you Sven! Much appreciated
My pleasure!
These cyclicals are very interesting, but as you said a real recession is still not priced in. Especially not one in the U.S.. After such an event those are dirt cheap, but timing is impossible.
It is about waiting till lt is an aboslute cheap buy, until then you simpli do nothing
Sven, how do you factor the dire state of productivity in the developed EU countries in general? I remember an older video of yours which was discussing this exact phenomenon. This could be a catalyst for all of companies you mentioned, if the workers are unproductive and paid out of proportion, the analysis of these stocks may be skewed.
What about Vienna Insurance Group and Erste Group?
Interesting and useful. Thank you Sven!
As a Shareholder of Voestalpine I was happy to see it on the list but then you stopped at Semperit. My weekend is ruined. 😅
Only after making the vid i saw i forgot to say domething about it :-(((( anyway, just indusrial
@@Value-Investing no worries, thank you for your answer. Looking forward to the Agrana/sugar video. 😀
Had good returns with Mayr-Melnhof. Then I was shocked about the new debt levels and the strategy and sold. Was at a good point in time.
Fabasoft is a quality Austrian stock and quite cheap now.
Sven, are U.S. traded ADRs available for any of these Austrian Companies you covered in this video? Thank you.
Should be, but check the volume
Thank you for the analysis!
Sven, a lot of people are using the risk free rate + risk premium as a discount rate when valuing stocks. My question is, with interest on debt being such a huge part of GDP, can the "risk free" rate truly be considered risk free going forward?
Interesting to discuss!
"Risk" in that regard is the risk of default - which simply isn't there because governments can just print more to pay that debt. It's the same risk as holding cash, plus you get a coupon - therefore risk free. Cash is basically just zero coupon and immediate maturity bond. It's the yardstick you use to measure all other assets against.
Now of course that "risk of default" turns into "risk of inflation" the longer you hold that bond, i.e. when the nominal yield you get is less than inflation over that time you lose buying power in real terms. No risk in nominal terms, but basically a guarantee you lose in real terms. The coupon is there to make up for your guaranteed-due-to-inflation loss and maybe add a little extra for the risk you take (if you're lucky).
Are 10Y to 30Y bonds fairly priced at around 4% right now? Probably not, personally I'd think it should be way, way, WAY higher considering the out of control spending and debt. But if (when?) the long end of the yield curve ever comes to grips with reality and rates go ballistic... what do you think the stock market would do, when nearly every valuation metric out there is based on the 10Y? I'd be surprised if equities didn't puke like it's 1929 at that point. So it kinda, sorta still is less risky than stocks (especially at insane valuations like we currently have) I guess? Personally, I think both the bond and equity markets have been completely delusional all of 2024 but what do I know...
@@maosw very thorough explanation. Thanks! So if I understand correctly, while the government won't default on their debt, inflation could go so high that the money I'm getting paid back becomes so devalued before I get them back, that it's practically the same as losing money.
@@absw6129 Exactly, it's all about the preservation of buying power. Mind you, "inflation" isn't an exact number either but more of a squishy concept: your personal inflation rate might be very different from someone else, depending on what you want/need to spend that money on at that later point in time. CPI and similar government numbers are just rough approximations, based on a basket of goods they expect an avg. consumer to buy. The weighting in that basket is kinda hilarious, changes over time and if that wasn't bad enough, they added stuff like "hedonic adjustments" to massage the numbers... the more you look into it, the crazier it gets. It's basically a made up number, yet the whole financial and monetary system builds upon it.
Long story short: If the nominal amount of Dollar/Euro/Yen/whatever you get back gets you less of the thing you wanted to buy with it later on, you lost - if can buy more if it, you won. If it's a house you want and housing prices went up 10% every year in your neighborhood, doesn't matter if CPI is 2.4%. On the other hand, something like a used car - you had crazy deflation over the last two years of so, yet CPI was positive the whole time because used cars are just a tiny part of that basket.
Just a constant reminder that economics isn't a hard science to begin with - it's all made up and the price of assets can move wildly from one day to another.
@@maosw Argentina did default a couple of time... there is a point nobody wants to buy the debt, even with huge rate...
I Hit 110k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started last month 2024. Financial education is indeed required for more than 70% of the society in the country as very few are literate on the subject. thanks to Brooke Grace Miller for helping me achieve this
I'm surprised that you just mentioned and recommended Brooke Miller, I met her at a conference in 2018 and we have been working together ever since.
The very first time we tried, we invested $1000 and after a week, we received $5500. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.
She is my family's personal broker and also a personal broker in many families I'm United States, she's a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in United states
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
I just withdrew my profits a week ago, To be honest it was an amazing feeling when the profits hits my wallet I wish I could reinvest but, too much bills
Thank you for the great company analysis video!
Glad you liked it!
I own Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG. The problem here is, that Russian market "disappeared" and therefore prices are low. Hopefully not for forever...
Another great review. Ty!🙏
Until Ukraine/Putin war resolves, Eastern Europe’s energy/economic situation is grim.
Thanks for sharing
Yes a sugar video please:) You can add Cofco Sugar to it
I was looking at Neste Oil - a refinery company that has gotten it's valuation from political eco fuels bit reduced. Probably will not be buying it as some fertilizer stock I sold with 100+ could be soon available at 3x.xx prices, those fertilizers seem to have given many nice runs, and I don't see why this time it would be much different. Just buy one when it makes sense to hold long term and watch what mr market does.
Maybe video about Europe money printing history please
Thanks for suggesting
Nice art on the wall
:-)
Love this kind of videos
Thanks
@@Value-Investing Hello Sven polish stocks like JSW and CPS are after 65% drop, the JSW is coking coal stock, and CPS is polish AT&T type of stock, are you interested? Woudl love to hear your view on this
Can you make a video reaction on the theory from the book The Great Taking?
Didnt read it
I work at Semperit's competitor, they have bad reputation of their service, currently they got some market share offering cheap products made in far eastern countries.It's well established company , they have better automation compared to some other players.But i wouldn't invest because customers might prefer their competition if they have even slightly worse offer due to bad service reputation.Everybody knows also they already pay for something cheap.This year they were very aggresive in pricing, i don't think it is sustainable.I will watch this video carefully because i am sure Sven gifted some chances =)
Thanks for sharing! Higly competitive indusry
Hi! Great video, but where are these companies listed? I'm Hungarian and I mostly invest with fidelity or lightyear, but neither of those platforms list Austrian companies. Does anybody have a suggestion for a more euro centric platform?
The companies are listed on the Vienna stock exchange. Some might be in Frankfurt too. I use Flatex and IBKR and both offer connections to VIE and FRA.
Just as interactive brokers (resp Captrader etc)
Sven maybe you are wrong for oil what about if never go to 50 maybe oil in gold term is the cheaper ever only the April 2020 for a day was more cheap but we know what happen after that
Sven’s blue eyes are like rare gem detectors
:-)))
Sorry, as an European seeing how Europe politics, politicians, mentalities, regulations, taxes, statism, socialism... is going... I won't touch an European investment with a ten-feet pole even despite some of those businesses look good. Also, brokerage commissions and costs are higher for the EU... But thanks anyway!
Can you look at the Voestalpine Stock too?
Cherck in the report in the pinned comment above
@@Value-Investing you had me at Burgerland 🤣 its Burgenland. Thanks for he report tough!
Cardboard not karton, Sven 🤗
🗽 Mayr-Melnhof is cyclical down.... board & paper is running bad, due to recession in Europe!
For OMV I don't understand why they do not buy back the shares ?? 🤔 But in Austria the mangement is often quite bad and 50% is the state.
In the long term the Austrian market is even weaker than the German market.
Share price performance since 1.1.2004 (@15.10.24): ATX +129% (4.0% p.a.), DAX-K +160% (4.7% p.a.)... plus dividends 🤨
.
Thanks for shsring
European money printing should help the paper industry... ;)
The EV and AI sectors Thriving. Nikola.. NKLA 6 %...QS EV batteries 25 %... VHAI.. Vocodia 104 % week...Xos Trucks 1 %.. Archer Evtol Jets.. ACHR... SRFM..Surf Air Mobility..Rivn . Rivian 3 ©... Polestar and Soun . SoundHound 5 %. Thumbs Up video/ comments on Austian stocks. Thanks.
Thanks!
you should do more European stocks !
:-)) will fo
@@Value-Investing who is "will fo" ? 🤣
I'm not investing in Austria until next year. Austria is dependent on russian natural gas and the supply over the ukrainian pipeline will stop at the end of the year. They are working on solutions to substitute the russian natural gas, but they won't be finished at time. With this energy crisis especially energy consuming industries like paper or metal industries are in trouble. I have no doubt the problems will be solved, but we all know how the market handles insecurity.
Isn't the Russian gas sanctioned?
@Nowhere-from Nö, there are no sactions against Russian CNG or LNG. Russia stopped delivering CNG with the Nordstream pipeline. But the delivery of CNG with the Ukrainian pipeline is higher than before. Those deliveries will stop at the end of the year.
Believe it or not: I invested all my Austrian Euros in US stocks. Politics and economy are very bad at the moment.
Play the video, like it, watch it!
Thanks!
Have owned OMV for last 6 months. Some other interesting ones shared here. Do Poland next!
Word IF used by Sven:
>10 times
>1000 times😝😎😉
If you say so :-)))
Europe is always an If Sven...I think y agree..@@Value-Investing
Thank you Lord Jesus for the gift of life and blessings to me and my family $14,120.47 weekly profit Our lord Jesus have lifted up my Life!!!🙏❤️❤️
I'm 37 and have been looking for ways to be successful, please how??
Sure, the investment-advisor that guides me is..
Elizabeth stark
Same, I met Elizabeth stark last year for the first time at a conference in Wilshire, after then my Life has changed for good.God bless Elizabeth stark
Her services is the best, I got a brand new Lambo last week and paid off my mortgage loan thanks to her wonderful services!
Not touching any Western European stock! This is a suicide! Now, Polish and Romanian stocks are another story!
Sven Carlin vs Everything Money?? which channel I the best?
What is everything money? :-)
@@Value-Investing another Value investing channel... :). I prefer this one though!
I Like Everything Money, First time here