I noticed your yt quantity and quality goes through cycles similar to how the econmy used to be, at the moment we are in an upswing and im here for it :)
Someone should create a UA-cam channel that constantly reviews success of the various UA-cam stockpickers and their predictions. Does one already exist?
@@danielbossi5580these stocks are not his own picks, nor will you have the same conviction/strategy he has with certain buys and sells so your returns will also greatly differ with each pick. The best he can do is guide you through the certain risk/rewards and what it could bring you so you can form your own opinion and strategy.
Thank you Sven. I belive that companies like Teleperformance might really one of the beneficiaries of AI at least in the short to medium term in terms of the overall cost per call. However it is very complicated for me to forecast the likely winners in that market, simply because I do not know it well. I would wait the next serious economic slowdown before entering in companies like these.
Chinese stocks spent all 2023 fading the reopening rally. It seems that the 2024 stimulus rally will be vomited in just a couple of weeks. Is there any adult “investing” there? Why can’t it trade normal?
P/E 8,5 for a french company is not even that great. CAC40:s P/E is sub 15. I have a rule in investing, if it ends with SE move along. Dividend withholding is taxed at 30 % and good luck getting it back. And the political risk is very high.
SE is the standardized EU alternative and ultimately successor successor of traditional national legal forms comparable to the US Corp. Many European companies outside France have switched to SE - look around in Germany, and you'll see that many former AGs, including DAX heavyweights like Allianz or Fresenius, are now SEs, too. It's a move to standardize European capital markets for higher efficiency, which is not a bad thing. I do agree with you, however, that the French practice of withholding tax from dividends while making refunds difficult is annoying and creates a barrier to capital markets for French companies - wether they are SEs or still a traditional Société Anonyme.
I'm in customer service, and my company did some experimentation with AI. It was shockingly bad, and I say that as someone who loves AI. But I doubt it stays that way, so I am currently skilling up to get the heck out of this business. The best investment is yourself.
I work in AI. I confirm :D AI will not replace customer service in the current generation. Plus, the legal responsibility of a wrong "AI" will reside on the company serving the AI bot, so people should be cautious with their predictions...
They have 500,000 staff, the majority who make and take calls....They can invest in AI but that's not their primary business model...AND AI really works when it comes to answering customer enquires - it will reduce the need for those 500,000 staff....If there was one business to be made obsolete by AI then it is Teleperformance... Its an OLD business model... Think of it like the internet did for Yellow Pages in the UK (printed business directories). Sure, Yellow Pages developed an online directory but did it help? No, because their core business was printed directories and MR customer no longer needed them. I don't believe AI is a complementary tool for Teleperformance. It may bankrupt Teleperformance over the next 10 years like the internet destroyed Yellow Pages.
Shouldn't AI help companies have their own call centers at lower costs? If I could buy a robot to clean my office then I wouldn't outsource cleaning services
I think they can make a superior AI customer service model. They are recording every conversation and all of the biggest companies are working with them
I think there's probably more to it than just "buying a robot" there is the data needed to train the AI then there's also the infrastructure and background teams to operate it. It may simply be cheaper for a company to continue outsourcing CS than to begin to build their own AI systems and infrastructure. But also could mean a long road of high capex for Teleperformace with no real guarantee that they will come out on top of competition
This is going to be one of the first industries taken over by AI. At first you will not see any disruption until suddenly the entire industry is very fast gone. Current focus is on general AI but when it shifts to specialized AI, the capex cost is going to be much lower and revenue per customer served will be only a fraction. I would need a 33% dividend yield to invest in this.
"At first you will not see any disruption until suddenly the entire industry is very fast gone. " This is always the prediction but never the reality, IME. Can you think of a single industry that this happened to?
@@drstedman Blockbusters and Nokia comes up first to my mind but those were not nearly as radical and fast. Good example could be SpaceX taking over entire US manned space flights to ISS from Russia.
That is a completely nonsensical reduction. Perhaps the most competitive business in the world is consumer beverage. Yet somehow Coca-Cola has had a durable advantage for decades. Almost any successfull business area will be very competitive; you have to look very spesifically at the particulars of each company and the field to assess anything like a 'moat'. And really, it is close to impossible for the most part to actually assess the 'moat' of a company. I read a value investing book recently called 'Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond' by Bruce Greenwald, professor of Finance and Asset Management at Columbia University. In the reprint, which is a little more than a decade old I believe, the business that he repeatedly brings up when talking about moats and competitive advantages in the modern age is Intel. Now look at the present public opinion on the 'moat' of Intel. And that is just *precisely* what can and eventually *will* happen with NVIDIA, Microsoft, Google, Apple, Visa, Mastercard, Novo Nordisk and whatever other seemingly wonderful company that you believe is a great business to invest in. Humans are notoriously bad at grasping how much will change over a longer time period, like an investor lifetime. We are just not wired that way, and it is just not possible to know. There is no example better than Warren Buffet's investment in the Buffalo Evening News. When Warren Buffet bought the newspaper in 1977, it was one of the best businesses he could imagine, and it was very hard to see any way that a geographically dominant newspaper could ever be a bad business. Look at the state of newspaper businesses in 2024. It was *impossible* to predict what would happen.
callcenter? young ppl almost never answer phone calls - future is not good for this kind of bussiness. and Ai can replace it in few years...and probably do a better job at it.
Don't forget, inbound callcenters are viewed as a cost center for most companies. With less incoming calls they are more likely to outsource it because they don't have enough scale. Especially if they can leverage AI investments, the cost/handled call can be a lot lower.
Have you looked at TopBuild (BLD)? US company laser focused on insulation with very experienced management.They are consolidating the very fragmented insulation industry by buying up the small contractors, with some room to grow. They did an investor day in 2022 which was very insightful. Great for employees (compensation), great for customers (only who can deliver nationally at scale), great for shareholders. But not exactly cheap right now.
@@mathewwilson97761. What evidence do you have that I didn't watch the video? 2. If the thumbnail and the title are different from the videos content what does it mean? Click baiting quite pathetic.
I noticed your yt quantity and quality goes through cycles similar to how the econmy used to be, at the moment we are in an upswing and im here for it :)
:-))
@@Value-Investing lol
this is interesting. Needs to be opposite. Why would I need to invest if majority of stocks are up?
Someone should create a UA-cam channel that constantly reviews success of the various UA-cam stockpickers and their predictions. Does one already exist?
You should make it! I would watch it!
Look the recommendation of the older Videos, I am almost sure he underpeform a lot
The problem with Sven is he never recommends a stock. He always says the risk reward is not there.
@@danielbossi5580 Sven has been open about his performance and his portfolio. And it is good.
@@danielbossi5580these stocks are not his own picks, nor will you have the same conviction/strategy he has with certain buys and sells so your returns will also greatly differ with each pick.
The best he can do is guide you through the certain risk/rewards and what it could bring you so you can form your own opinion and strategy.
Thank you Sven. I belive that companies like Teleperformance might really one of the beneficiaries of AI at least in the short to medium term in terms of the overall cost per call.
However it is very complicated for me to forecast the likely winners in that market, simply because I do not know it well. I would wait the next serious economic slowdown before entering in companies like these.
can you please make a video for Edenred....stock has made a significant correction
Telus International also collapsed. Their main business was call centres
Catching falling knives? Not sure it's always a good idea
Chinese stocks spent all 2023 fading the reopening rally. It seems that the 2024 stimulus rally will be vomited in just a couple of weeks. Is there any adult “investing” there? Why can’t it trade normal?
I don't see much adult investing anywhere these days
@@Value-Investing 🤣
P/E 8,5 for a french company is not even that great. CAC40:s P/E is sub 15. I have a rule in investing, if it ends with SE move along. Dividend withholding is taxed at 30 % and good luck getting it back. And the political risk is very high.
thanks for sharing, correct on taxes there...
SE is the standardized EU alternative and ultimately successor successor of traditional national legal forms comparable to the US Corp.
Many European companies outside France have switched to SE - look around in Germany, and you'll see that many former AGs, including DAX heavyweights like Allianz or Fresenius, are now SEs, too. It's a move to standardize European capital markets for higher efficiency, which is not a bad thing.
I do agree with you, however, that the French practice of withholding tax from dividends while making refunds difficult is annoying and creates a barrier to capital markets for French companies - wether they are SEs or still a traditional Société Anonyme.
AI will destroy this bussiness
Not if their business changes into installing and maintaining these AI solution. Which is what they are up to if I understand it correctly.
Sven, you dont think this company and workers will be replaced with gen AI solutions ?
it can happen!
I'm in customer service, and my company did some experimentation with AI. It was shockingly bad, and I say that as someone who loves AI. But I doubt it stays that way, so I am currently skilling up to get the heck out of this business. The best investment is yourself.
I work in AI. I confirm :D AI will not replace customer service in the current generation. Plus, the legal responsibility of a wrong "AI" will reside on the company serving the AI bot, so people should be cautious with their predictions...
Hello Swen, what do you think about another French stock Trigano?
They’ll probably be blown away by AI. It’s a doomed sector to invest in
Are you sure? Who should provide the call center AI in future? Who will enable the call centers in the use of AI?
They have 500,000 staff, the majority who make and take calls....They can invest in AI but that's not their primary business model...AND AI really works when it comes to answering customer enquires - it will reduce the need for those 500,000 staff....If there was one business to be made obsolete by AI then it is Teleperformance... Its an OLD business model... Think of it like the internet did for Yellow Pages in the UK (printed business directories). Sure, Yellow Pages developed an online directory but did it help? No, because their core business was printed directories and MR customer no longer needed them. I don't believe AI is a complementary tool for Teleperformance. It may bankrupt Teleperformance over the next 10 years like the internet destroyed Yellow Pages.
good points, thanks for sharing
Yeah this is one of those, even if the sector does well, it's hard to know which company from the sector will come on top.
Nah, only 31k shares traded daily. Too little of trading to invest safely.
thanks for sharing!
Shouldn't AI help companies have their own call centers at lower costs? If I could buy a robot to clean my office then I wouldn't outsource cleaning services
My thoughts exactly, very disruptible
I think they can make a superior AI customer service model. They are recording every conversation and all of the biggest companies are working with them
I think there's probably more to it than just "buying a robot" there is the data needed to train the AI then there's also the infrastructure and background teams to operate it. It may simply be cheaper for a company to continue outsourcing CS than to begin to build their own AI systems and infrastructure. But also could mean a long road of high capex for Teleperformace with no real guarantee that they will come out on top of competition
@@kernan.e8308 Fair. I was thinking more than any small group of programmers could develop and license a CS package for other companies
idk buying BP instead
thanks for sharing!
It is cheap for a reason. Low ROICs for over 10 years below 10%.
Maybe I wasn't focused enough but how did you get to Return 10%?
the net income and cash flow yield at the moment is 10%
Another one of these Carlin analysis on a company that's about to get disrupted (Intel)
watch the vid :-)
This is going to be one of the first industries taken over by AI. At first you will not see any disruption until suddenly the entire industry is very fast gone. Current focus is on general AI but when it shifts to specialized AI, the capex cost is going to be much lower and revenue per customer served will be only a fraction. I would need a 33% dividend yield to invest in this.
"At first you will not see any disruption until suddenly the entire industry is very fast gone. "
This is always the prediction but never the reality, IME. Can you think of a single industry that this happened to?
@@drstedman Blockbusters and Nokia comes up first to my mind but those were not nearly as radical and fast. Good example could be SpaceX taking over entire US manned space flights to ISS from Russia.
Great analysis.
Nice call, Sven. I'm not a big fan of these kinds of companies, but this one seems to be extremely cheap and still has a long way to run
Teleperfomance is a horrible employer , that's what i know from various people
thanks for sharing!
@@MyDreamside Worldline is the best employer, but see their results!
lmao i believe you way more than these awards
I worked for them... yeap pretty much true.
Highly competitive = no moat = risky. There are better businesses to invest in.
That is a completely nonsensical reduction. Perhaps the most competitive business in the world is consumer beverage. Yet somehow Coca-Cola has had a durable advantage for decades. Almost any successfull business area will be very competitive; you have to look very spesifically at the particulars of each company and the field to assess anything like a 'moat'.
And really, it is close to impossible for the most part to actually assess the 'moat' of a company.
I read a value investing book recently called 'Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond' by Bruce Greenwald, professor of Finance and Asset Management at Columbia University. In the reprint, which is a little more than a decade old I believe, the business that he repeatedly brings up when talking about moats and competitive advantages in the modern age is Intel. Now look at the present public opinion on the 'moat' of Intel. And that is just *precisely* what can and eventually *will* happen with NVIDIA, Microsoft, Google, Apple, Visa, Mastercard, Novo Nordisk and whatever other seemingly wonderful company that you believe is a great business to invest in.
Humans are notoriously bad at grasping how much will change over a longer time period, like an investor lifetime. We are just not wired that way, and it is just not possible to know. There is no example better than Warren Buffet's investment in the Buffalo Evening News. When Warren Buffet bought the newspaper in 1977, it was one of the best businesses he could imagine, and it was very hard to see any way that a geographically dominant newspaper could ever be a bad business. Look at the state of newspaper businesses in 2024. It was *impossible* to predict what would happen.
Not great moat.
thanks for sharing!
Concentrix expected EPS 11bucks ie trading below 5x...
it is a general sector downturn as the pandemic boom has been subduing
If I didn't hate call centers, I would consider this stock. Outsourced customer care is a cancer on society.
thanks for sharing, good points!
callcenter? young ppl almost never answer phone calls - future is not good for this kind of bussiness. and Ai can replace it in few years...and probably do a better job at it.
Is not telemarketing is customer service
Don't forget, inbound callcenters are viewed as a cost center for most companies. With less incoming calls they are more likely to outsource it because they don't have enough scale.
Especially if they can leverage AI investments, the cost/handled call can be a lot lower.
@mirkosprangers5879 thanks, brilliant comment
This industry is vulnerable to disruption. Whoever gets AI right will have a huge advantage.
will anyone?
Have you looked at TopBuild (BLD)? US company laser focused on insulation with very experienced management.They are consolidating the very fragmented insulation industry by buying up the small contractors, with some room to grow. They did an investor day in 2022 which was very insightful. Great for employees (compensation), great for customers (only who can deliver nationally at scale), great for shareholders. But not exactly cheap right now.
Excellent video ...Happy "Columbus Day" to all Americans
VOW p/e 3 p/b 0.3
can you do bdory banco do brazil?
I am not a specialist on banks, especially not Brazilian ua-cam.com/video/EMhoCEYSa6o/v-deo.html
Doesn't putting stock price prediction videos go against your views on value investment?
Doesn't writing a comment without even watching the video go against human intellect?
@@mathewwilson97761. What evidence do you have that I didn't watch the video?
2. If the thumbnail and the title are different from the videos content what does it mean? Click baiting quite pathetic.
STM
thanks for suggesting!
@@georgesamaras2922 cyclical, maybe around 20 €
I am invested and confident. I will wait 10 years. ;) Thanks for the video.
thanks for sharing