$9,000,000 At The World Series of Poker FINAL TABLE
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- Опубліковано 15 чер 2023
- We have to talk about this hand from the 2023 $100k WSOP High Roller event. Adrian Mateos rivers a straight against Jans Arends, but little does he know that Jans flopped a full house. He is facing an unconventional raise sizing, and uses mutiple time bank extensions. Is this a fold you could ever make?
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Hey Doug, one thing about Arends river size, in this kind of spots due to the ICM involved you basically never get to shove river even if you have the stone nuts when covered and prefer a slightly smaller size then shove. Logic being by adding those extra 5m on the river your also putting a Risk Premium of around 8% it then becomes too costly for your bluffs and the upside of winning those 5m extra is smaller for your tournament equity then when your bluffing and bust instead of beeing left with 12bbs. This is a scenario unique to these ICM spots where the other stack covers you.
Great content btw :)
Really nice breakdown. Honestly polker hands is what got me to sign up for upswing, and they've done more for my game than any other poker content.
I love your choice of hand-breakdowns
OMG a spot where blockers are actually relevant!!! In all seriousness, great breakdown. I learned some new ideas about how to approach this spot.
Polker Hands is by far your best content, more please :)
This was, in my opinion, a particularly instructive breakdown.
Great video, great work… Keep it up, and you may eventually end up in the circle! 🤪
⭕✊
Get this man more subs! Best poker content on UA-cam by a mile
He had them, they unsubbed because he made a video saying he was done and disappeared for like a year
Better than rampages vids? 😬😬 Lol Doug's vids are really good to me he is the second best
No check out Negreanu and Brad Owen
Since they do not allow gay porn on UA-cam I agree 👍
@@henrygeorge377 I’m a fat male, want to hook up ?
With that river seems better to go larger and fold than 1/3 pot cause you open yourself up to more bluffs by going small
Graftekkel beast!
Very good analysis, Doug. It’s not often you see a better absolute hand (straight) with worse blocking properties than another hand (trips, etc).
love your videos just great , good luck @ main event
Jamming river isn't as great in ICM, Doug. Because of the present risk premiums, it's more important to not bust with your bluffs than it is to get max value from your nuts. From what I've seen, the solver will often choose huge, non ai sizings over the ai sizing in spots like these.
Not sure if also case in river, but I've definitely seen solver raising for e.g 60% of the stack instead of going all in. Of course you're pot commited if somebody jams.
You are basically saying Arends DIDN'T go all in there because he would also NOT go all in with his bluffs. y/n? Therefore his opponent can put more bluffs in his range and call (pay him off)
@@MatthewRiley294 Yes
I love new episodes of Douger Hands
Thanks Doug - I learnt something!
I'm not running around the poker table with this hand breakdown Doug
What polarises this hand for me is the check on the flop by Arends. He's raised pre-flop, then checks the flop in position - with four to a decent flush? Maybe, but it's less likely. For me, the call on the turn could be two clubs, or just a float, and that brings a lot of bluffs into play on the river. I can see why Mateos calls here.
To me sounds like the opposite, checking the flop there is fishy. And K10 suited preflop 3 handed in the SB seems like a 3bet
@@jimbojones9118 I agree with you that checking the flop is fishy - that's what I meant when I said it polarises the hand. The flop has either hit him in the face or he doesn't have much. He can have a very big hand on the flop, but four to a high flush (a middling holding) seems like an unlikely check to me. Unless it's Daniel Negreanu
Idk what GTO says but if I bet and get raised 6(!)x on this board I’m folding unless I’ve got some sort of a read that it’s a sizing tell from previous hands or a soul read.
I agree 👍💯
"I am known for making my folds"...hahaha,good one!
Nice hand breakdown!
He is though! Has made some great folds
So just curious how much does the shotclocks affect these kind of situations? (i obviously understand shot clocks mainly to stop people tanking), but in these really tough situations, does it affect a player's decision?
I would like to hear Justin Bonomo and Isaac Haxton's thoughts on the physical violence taking place on the rail of the $100K high roller.
Hahah, cucks
what happened?
Physical violence rail of 100k$ highroller
@@shahrukh877 spectator got punched in the nuts by his girlfriend. See 2:25
IMO, black Q is a fold, red Q is (probably) a call
Even though he is on the outs, he keeps putting out great content 👍
That’s a great point 😂 but I think he still does well with his poker room )
doug " retired " polk
DOUG POLK and POKERGO partnership?? Wow how times have changed…
Guess a Pokerstars partnership is next. Gotta go full shill. Love ya doug
Like this format of talking through the analysis as the hand is played out
I see the GTO aspect of this river bet by Arends, however, I also see that live Poker is different than Online Poker; Live reads, etc...
Now, Arends has no Black in his hand, making it more likely that Mateos has some type of Black in his hand, and Maybe hit the flush or even hit the straight. Now, Arends put 12mil up. Right? Why? It looks bluffy. And if Arends know where he is at in this hand, and where Mat is at, then this is perfect tbh.
mateos and arends play vs each other every day online, they played thousands hands for sure. obv mateos knows arends is able to raise there light/bluff
That Q on the river was a vicious river.
It sucks when you hit your dream card only yo realize you were drawing dead. 🤯
Could the river bet be seen as representing sort of a polarized bluff bet, but being afraid to push it all in and get knocked out in third place? So it kinda shows some weakness, inducing the call?
I was watching this live and that's what I was thinking, but these guys are pros, mateos knows that arends could be doing that. Interesting game of cat and mouse. I personally love the size of the raise, and dougs evaluation of how KT is too low in mateos's range to be making this call. Still tough if you know your opponent knows you are weak and purely aiming to bluff you out of the pot.
Personally for me allin representing you might have some bluffs and such sizing to me representing begging for call at least from what ive seen on my player pool tournaments online but im sure these players are high level and more sophisticated than most and they for sure have history online and know each other quite well
Bluffs can’t be polarised.Getting the jargon mixed up bro
@@Gos1234567 pardon my short hand. I meant a polarized bet as a bluff...
100% agree regarding the sizing of the river raise. Have to either go smaller or just rip it in
I see the GTO aspect of this river bet by Arends, however, I also see that live Poker is different than Online Poker; Live reads, etc...
Now, Arends has no Black in his hand, making it more likely that Mateos has some type of Black in his hand, and Maybe hit the flush or even hit the straight. Now, Arends put 12mil up. Right? Why? It looks bluffy. And if Arends know where he is at in this hand, this is perfect tbh.
Doug...this dudes are grinding all day online. They have a lot of history together. So you have to make this call against Graftekkel sometimes
Proud to be Dutch 🇳🇱
You know Arends is 'Graftekkel' beast online, right? Don't you think Arends is capable of turning a missed turned clubs flushdraw? I think Mateos knows him well and knows he's capable a decent amount. His 2 million seems like a blocker bet, so Graftekkel can easily spot that weakness and bomb it with a missed club draw. (and have something left when called)
So by that logic, you should just blindly call every time your small river bet for value gets raised? Because “he’s capable”?
He’s going to have to find both calls and folds, Doug is just explaining which hands he would choose to do each with.
Who said "every time"? He chose to do so this time. If he's capable it just means it's not ALWAYS a fold. Its not always a call either.
Would love some insights from the people of the inner circle on that spot…
Doug,
Noooooooooooo
Wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy
Would u fold that straight! 😂
Have they played together? Lolz. Just a bit my friend. Just a bit. Talks about online legend Jens “Graftekkel” Arends like a random euro.
He got 5 M behind after raise. Not likely a bluff. Called the turn but didn’t raise, mateos could expect opponent to hve flush draw and get there on river
Mateos just didn’t expect flop house
I agree 👍💯
Is mateos the goat ? Seems to win all the big tourneys
He's a really great player
What a great time to be an abi50 reg who can fold here always and don't feel rekt😂
Drawing dead and got there.
Brutal.
u da man dougie
Is there anything to the idea of not jamming the river so you still maintain 5 million in chips if he chooses to call and has you beat?
My thoughts exactly. It looks bluff/value. No need to polarize. This would get paid by a flush, for sure
IMO jamming the river with a J9 full house is never getting called by a straight or hands worse than an ace high flush and is getting snapped off by QJ, queens full or a straight flush.
@@richknow Every river bet/raise is either bluff or value...
@RoCkShaDoWWaLkEr yeah exactly. If he jams he would get snapped called by king ten spades
I'm a player from Brazil and I also make poker videos, I'm very inspired by Doug
Did mateos throw out 4 time buttons at once, like fk me were going in the deep tank
Would’ve been all time if he did have K10ss instead of diamonds
damn thomas is a good friend for letting you use their pokergo account
Considering that's srslysirius who actually edits and scripts all these videos, it makes sense.
solver loves to 3b kts
For Kessler.
great content! for arends' value combos, i don't think there are many flushs there since with a decent stack, he would bet his flush draw in position with a high frequency on this board to deny other two people's equity and flop bet also made other two players feel uncomfortable with many hands except trip j. I think mateos made the call only because he thought the river raise size is either a boat or 9x bluff cuz if he count the number of flush, the math would not support a call, but if the raise is only representing a boat or 9x bluff, then math do support a call there.
also, if arends jam on river, it is really hard to find a bluff that he wanna risk his tournament life to bluff mateos' value bet on river. arends and matoes both had roughly 20m chips and kary only have 12m. Arends would definitely want a better chance to get ev under icm pressure when he aginst a good player's river value bet and matoes is capable of making hero call. so a reraise to 12m looks more like a bluff with courage in my sight and be able to get hero call with a higher probability.
Like what you possibly beat on that board when you're re-raised....its that simple, and the answer is literately nothing.
1 sub equals one step closer to the inner circle
" a Huge flop for J9 "
You really doug down deep on this polker hand.
Just yesterday I saw a video were I said I would have insta called with the straight and it was against a full house. In that video the straight turned the nuts on the turn and checked the set checked back, then the board pairs and the straight checcks on the river and the full house bets.
This hand is different I don't see this guy over betting 3 Js here it looks like a flush or a full house. I'm ok with the bet sizing on the river. I don't think 🤔 blockers play that big. I just don't see that guy raising preflop, checking flop, calling turn then bluffing on the river. The only thing you can beat is a bluff. If you can find any in your mind that make any sense. The only way you can call if you think the guy is capable of blasting off for no reason. (And that does happen) but not enough to justify a call in my opinion.
Can anyone explain how Kd10d has .3% equity on the flop?
if two kings come, then higher full house
It has to go K on the turn and K on the river. I guess running Ks is .3 percent.
Everyone dogging on Mateos for this call in the comments when they still cant manage to fold top pair is comical
bad call by adrian...agree should have been a bet fold
12m is just a potsized raise
On the turn leading bet: "Mateo had to bet in to TWO players so I don't see any reason to do anything other than call."
Can anyone explain this logic to me? In my mind if he is betting in to two players, especially cuz he was first to act on the turn, the bet is a bit stronger, and therefore a raise here is more likely to be called? I'm sure Doug is right I would just like to know the logic.
Thanks!
Few things. 1: you're in position. So the hand never gets checked down on the river. Which is very important. 2: The strength he conveys betting into two is actually the reason you don't raise here. If he's as strong as he's appearing, he will likely bet river or will c/c. If he's bluffing, you fold out 100% of his bluffs with a raise. Or if he's semi-bluffing, he may call but then c/f the turn.
And, if he's semi-bluffing (which he was here), you want him to hit his draw as you have the nuts and only worried about AJ, KJ, QJ, or TJ making a bigger full house on last card. Which is unlikely since there is only one J left for him to have.
Yes Mateos's range will be very strong. Arends can't just treat Mateos like a fish and only raise when he has the nuts, though, because Mateos will know that his own range is strong and that Arends would need a very strong range to raise against him.
I thought he was going to jam. Lol
Nice clickbait title. Wouldn’t expect anything less from this guy
My critique of your analysis would be about the 12M raise after the river. Arends hand just got downgraded to third nuts. If he thought he was up against a high pocket pair, pocket queens now beat him so does queen/jack.
Oh and no way do I call that 12M bet with only a straight.
mateos would've re raised preflop with QQ and arends with J9 makes it less likely mateos has QJ
Turns out Arends was a genius.
“Tank tops! Tank tops!”
Cmon chat get it going with me.
Also, insightful analysis.
Clickbait title, is 2.6 million for 1st, Unsubbed
Even though nobody likes Doug and he is on the outs, he has made a great video here👍
Good analysis tldr basically Doug explains why he is the best BUT I have to wonder, if Polk gives all potential opponents his best poker analysis, he must be keeping something for himself otherwise he would have no edge and he seems smarter than that. Makes me wonder.
Doug has nothing to teach to people like Mateos and Arends in terms of nlh mtts. This breakdown is only to the benefit of the viewers :)
Easy bet/fold on this specific river card he is chopping at best beats zero value hands/ pretty maniacal bluff especially when so many bluffs get there on this river specifically for mateos. I just think it's a horrible spot to bluff w that sizing for Jans and is going to be most likely value vs chip leader in a huge ICM spot with a difference of 1.1mm between first and third or something like that. I just think it's a fold on that specific river. Such a suicide bluff because so many of mateos turn stabs connect with this river. He can't play possibly think he's getting folds from anything with this line
I agree 👍💯
With no spades in his hand, how could he call that big rvr bet?
Mateos knew that Arrends had it but couldn’t fold the str8. He should have folded. He’d still been in good shape. All he had was a bluff catcher. So many hands beat him. I watched it live
It was such a bad call for so many reasons
Lmao @ "he knew he had it but couldn't fold". No he didn't know it otherwise he would have folded. We're talking about an elite mtt player who lives to get to this stage of a tournament, he certainly folded countless straights throughout his career.
Graftekkel is such a monster
he flopped a full house...let's not give him too much credit
What a MONSTER!! He was able to put chips in the middle when he flopped a fullhouse!! Insane plays!!
Y'all probably haven't seen any other hands of both HR's then I presume. All good my friends.
Hi
This blocking and removal stuff you focus way too much on are such a scam. Can’t believe people buy into this crap
Wow.....a million for third!!
I hope y’all realize when Doug plays poker exactly zero if this analysis is going through his mind.
You don’t actually believe this do you lol
@@barneyrubble7744 of course. He goes into 5 minute monologues on camera. Watch him shove $420k against Dwan. That was the easiest check ever
Doug "Typically Speaking" Polk. make one video without saying it. bet you cant.
I wanna say easy fold only because the sizing and the prize money jump is just too much risk to call. You only beating AJ and pure bluffs.
Meep
There’s no bluffs in this spot. Bad call on river
Half a million dollars between 2nd and 3rd I'm folding everything but the nuts
This is why you will never reach that final table in the first place
@@IRNjuggle28 I will. Just probably won't win unless I get a cooler.
@@IRNjuggle28 I actually already have.
@@mrhumble2937 You've made the final table where 2nd and 3rd are payouts such as this? Which tournament and final table?
such bs doug
Potatoes
The decisions you make after you buy a Hublot...
Doug telling someone who is light years better than him how to play a hand is LOL funny. That's like me trying to explain to Mahomes how he should do things slightly different if he ends up throwing an interception.
It’s like Justin Herbert telling pat what to do. You suck at football and Doug is good at poker
Doug uses a solver to come to these conclusions I assume. Is not just his thoughts. I'm sure he's aware both players are better then him in mtt nlh. These videos are not made for the players, but for the viewers, provides good insight, I for sure have learnt alot from these breakdowns and I bet Doug has too.
I saw this live and still think the same, easy fold.
Wow so lucky he got that call . The sizing was to large by far . He was targeting a flush not a straight . 7-8 million was more then enough to get called . 12 million is max value 👏🏾
For the algo
What an awful river call. You can literally only beat a bluff and everything got there.
a little too results oriented polker, no ✌️
This was such a mASSive f up by Mateos, it’s really astonishing how he couldn’t figure out he was beat. I watched the stream and it was super easy to figure out when Arends had it and the river raise should’ve EASILY given it away. Mateos is too good of a player to not sniff that out, just strange.
I’m not saying I disagree with you but poker is never black and white. If it was this simple to fold out straights, Arends could definitely do this with just a jack. I still would’ve folded though.
Probably only put him on just a jack lol not flopping a boat
@@dylanconway1191 given the action and the strength of Mateos hand, a straight on that board was the 5th nuts(straight flush,quads,full house, flush all beat him), it was the easiest fold imaginable, even from an ICM standpoint it was the correct play. If Arends had gone All-In(or that weird almost All-in most pros do in the tournaments now where they leave themselves one blind behind so they can maybe jump up the pay ladder if they are wrong ) I would’ve respected Mateos call more because it would’ve looked more like Arends was bluffing however the 12 Million raise is what should’ve given it away instantly. I know this is all pretty much Monday Morning Quarterbacking the hand but it’s just weird how Mateos didn’t sniff this out.
@@anthonymuhleck289 technically you’re right given that Mateos called the raise but I just don’t see why Mateos would think Arends would make that big of an overraise into the co-chip leader(they both had roughly the same amount of chips I think) with that weak of a hand. IMHO I think the bet sizing, 12 Mil to win 8Mil chips, from Arends was almost the same as flipping over the cards to show Mateos he was beat given what was at stake at that moment in the tournament . In the end it doesn’t make much difference cause Mateos is still a great player and he simply made a bad read however I just think it was an easier fold than some people are saying.
@@dylanconway1191 your really think if Arends had a jack he would be
-checking the flop
-just calling the turn
- raising SIX TIMES the river bet on the card that the straight AND flush and more boats come in?
Seems like a stretch/terrible way to play trip jacks
phil ivey,woulda fold that hand
I saw this one live. Missed context: Cary Katz was playing soft to ladder up. So, Arends is the obstacle for Mateos' turn bet.
Lol if there’s anyone worried about laddering up it ain’t Katz
@@waterboy417 Afterwards. But the situation from 5-handed down saw Katz play quietly to maintain a comfortable stack rather than play aggressive for knock-outs or the chip lead.
Throwing time chips in as an angle?
What kind of fraud is this? There were never any stacks on money on the table of this event as shown in the pic of this UA-cam video.
calm down
Oh man, you're really gonna be mad when you find out the "100 Grand" candy bar is just chocolate.
@@SolvingLivePoker-sh9pp The 100 Grand refers to the number of calories. But seriously, if the wrapper of the candy bar included a photoshopped pic of something that was not in the candy bar, that would be fraud. But the photo on the candy bar wrapper is an accurate depiction of the outside and inside of the candy bar.
@@VVeZoX I am calm, bubble boy. But I don't believe that is acceptable to photoshop things into pictures that never happened. At best it is click-bait and at worst it is fraud. I have seen Doug claim that other people cheated without even a shred of evidence.
a double angle, first when he threw the timebanks in, then when he spread them, that's an angle to try to get a reaction from his opponent in my view.
Actually the second one I think he got asked to spread the time chips, but why even make that motion with time chips? It's clearly to get a reaction and it's clearly an angle shoot.
You have to be stupid to call that. The dude could have a boat, a flush, quads, a straight flush...
Literally so many things he could have had. Imagine he calls and guy turns over king ten of spades. 😂 like it's such a bad play when the guy is betting so big
Another 2nl blueliner who thinks they know what's up... Stupid? Lmk when you win your first mil bud
spoken like someone who has never played big tourneys, will never play big tourneys, and knows so little about poker.. .we are all so greatful for your input... ugh
This random guy on the internet unironically just called one of the best nlh mtt players on the planet stupid
Doug ! I have been subbed for long and love ur content. can u give me 100 to start a bankrool doug
2 minutes ago uploaded can say already a excellent video
such a terrible call. people talking about mateos as if he's some kind of poker savant. total idiocy here. and i see no logic in a jam in this spot either.
He has 34 million in live tournament earnings. I.E. 16th on all time money list. That's probably a bit lower than your all time rank, given your comment here. But 16th is still not too shabby.
Everyone makes bad calls. Even the best players in the world.
"as if he's some kind of poker savant" yeh you're right it's not like he's one of the best nlh mtt players on earth after all
@@lorenzoarduini3099 dude did you see this call? Total stupidity. I’d destroy him