Fantastic presenter, good lord. You can tell he knows this incident like the backside of his hand. And he’s very patient with and articulate in answering the question.
Someone tell me what the living hell what were Eric and Steed thinking when they marched their men down a damn box canyon without a lookout. Any person who has taken a basic wildfire class knows you do not go into a box canyon during a fire.
The last photos Granite Mountain took clearly show cold air off the thermal crushing the ventilation, not allowing heat to escape and super heated air being pushed out horizontal, preheating the fuels ahead of it. They never should of tried to beat it to "Save the Town"!
I think this all comes down to temptation overcoming caution. The key part of Mike Dudley's talk is minutes 37 to 41, where he talks about the temptation to hike from the saddle to the ranch, even though the crew had three other safe options. Multiple rules of wildfire fighting should have been crying out to Eric Marsh and Jesse Steed not to make that hike through the canyon: (1) They would lose visibility of the fire and they had no lookout. (2) They knew from weather reports that squirrrely weather was in the area and winds could change any moment. (3) The path to the ranch and the surrounding area was filled with 40-year-old fuels ready to burn. (4) A box canyon acts just like a fireplace, creating an ideal situation for a fire to burn through quickly, and leaving the crew no option of escape. In spite of all this, the temptation to hike to the ranch overcame Marsh and Steed, and the result was tragedy. So just like Captain Smith on the Titanic, choosing to speed through the ice field rather than stop his ship, and just like Captain McSorley choosing to power through a Lake Superior gale rather than seek safe harbor for the Edmund Fitzgerald, temptation overcame Marsh and Steed, and they chose the risky option, not the safe ones. If we are to point fingers, it should be at the training and practices of the wildfire service. There need to be stronger safeguards in place (like GPS) to kick in when temptation overwhelms a crew supervisor. It is immoral to send crews into such a highly dangerous situation without the latest technology and full fire management support.
Chris, isn't it pretty self-evident from the video, especially minutes 37 to 41? Did you listen to the video, especially those minutes? As Mike Dudley indicates, the team wanted to engage with the fire, and the easiest way to do that was to make it to the ranch and take it from there. Unfortunately, they died en route to the ranch. Personally, I think the whole concept of hotshot crews is misguided. There ought to be much stronger safeguards (like GPS) in place if we are going to let people get this close to wildfire. Otherwise, we will continue to lose people like this.
@@jerryjerrylahngenhairy4724, this is a very important point. We are sending government employees into places where they are risking their lives, and we can't even spend the money to put a GPS transponder on each one of them? What a blatant disregard for the value of human life!
Joe Quinlan @Joe Quinlan Agreed, but even with GPS going into the canyon was a risky chess move. Did you find it interesting at 29:00 he mentioned 3 fire chiefs, from 3 departments being let go? I overlooked this for nearly a half decade.
@@Dutch1982 I don't think these terminations were directly related to the deaths of the fire fighters, but rather the mis-management of the Yarnell Hill fire overall. They let it burn too long, were way too late in sending in resources, and did not make use of all the resourced available to them, such as helicopters with buckets and lakes designated for filling them. As for going into the canyon, yes it was a serious mistake by Marsh and Steed. My point is that there will always be a chance that a leader will make a stupid mistake. GPS is the insurance policy against that situation; other people could have seen that Marsh was making a really bad mistake.
I’m still not at peace with 19 of my brothers dying. What does give me solace is that I know that firefighters don’t join the cause to be safe. They were doing something they loved with their “family “. The best job I’ve ever had and will ever have. It still is frickin heartbreaking though, 7 years later.
This sucks. I am trying to figure out how to respond to earlier comments. I am sorry these guys died. But I have to ask why did they follow an obviously flawed plan, maybe it didn’t seem like it at the time. But in my experience they knew this was not good.
I can't even count how many times I have watched this video and many others on Yarnell Hill, South Canyon, Thirty Mile etc... Read all the books. This seminar is extremely well done. After reading all the blogs and investigative reports, there are some things that I just can't come to any other conclusion than the powers that be are involved in a cover up, most likely to protect the fallen supervisors, families and the departments involved in this mess. You absolutely cannot deny that the ultimate decision to descend through the canyon lies with Marsh and Steed. Even if Marsh ordered Steed or someone else ordered Marsh, they had the ultimate responsibility for the decisions for their crew. They violated so many 10/18's it's almost unfathomable! Why? Was it fatigue, bravado, duty? Why hasn't McDonough ever given a statement under oath? Is there any validity to his alleged statement about Marsh and Steed arguing and if there was, why wouldn't he have told Brian Frisby with Blue Ridge to get hold of Marsh and talk him out of it? How are there no radio communications for 30 minutes until the final calls for help? The fact that no one was watching over them or even aware where they were is mind blowing. Even more crazy is I understand they did a staff ride to South Canyon just a year before and said it would never happen to them? It literally did! Tragic...but what has changed?
There's just no answer to your questions and that is sad. The conclusion is Marsh and Steed made the wrong decision. Why they made such a mistake is unknown. One possible explanation is they were hungover from the night before and also were tired. Eric Marsh even wrote on the chalkboard that he was "68%. I just think they were tired and hungover and made a fatal decision. The ultimate question is how in the hell does a hotshot crew decide to enter a box canyon during a fire with zero lookout. Everyone knows a box canyon is the same as literally being inside a fireplace. My only conclusion is Eric Marsh did not property train Steed to make his own decisions and to question Marsh when he did something bad. Steed should have stopped Marsh and said "My team is not going".
I've read a lot about this tragedy too. Brandon M said that he caught crosstalk on his radio between Steed and Marsh, and they were arguing. I think Steed wanted to hold up in the lunch spot, and Marsh basically ordered him to proceed to the ranch. Bad decisions, bad radio reception, and the unpredictable winds, equal the potential for a tragic ending. I'm confused on why the left the good black, where they were safe.
@@gumbi8989 9Its definately something when the most important communications regarding this tragedy has barely been acknowledged and virtually ignored by every major media coverage as well as investigation. There should be massive interest in those final comms between Marth and. Steed. I think theres a lot of presure to avoid criticizing the deceased. This is supposed to be a tragedy befallen upon heros and thats how they want it despite the obvious that they chose to go into a situation every hotshot knows is terrib
@@gumbi8989 Too many missing elements in the investigation, like where are the rest of the communications between the crew, cell phone calls, texts etc? It was my understanding in other videos that Blue Ridge was not allowed to comment, why? If McDonough gave his radio to Blue Ridge supervisor when he was picked up, wouldn't they have heard crew talking on the descent to deployment site? Reading other blogs, watching videos from John Dougherty, Debra Pfingston and Joy Collura to name a few, they speak of another theory about a backfire being lit around Sesame street and have some evidence to back it up, but they were all suppressed and stone walled. If that was true, could that backfire of merged with or ahead of the main advancing fire line and beat it to the crew, cutting it off? That would have been something they weren't prepared for and explain how they got over taken so quickly. The SAIR Report and this video, while it doesn't specifically name anyone or entity to blame, it essentially lays the responsibility with the crew and blames bad luck, abnormal weather shift event. When you watch the video from South Canyon, by Eric Hipke, it is easy to see the different elements that lead to the tragedy and the WF community learned from it and training was improved. When I look at this loss, knowing all the training and knowledge Marsh and his crew had since then, it is so hard to accept that they alone dismissed such basic rules that lead to their deaths. I am shocked that Wildfire LLC hasn't even released a case study on this event in nearly ten years now.
The more I learn about it the more I see the pure instincts of cutting the shortcut and get to the ranch. Even if involving violating few rules which all us do from time to time. This time just they cross it too far and run out of luck. Sad. Respect. This will stay with me forever
Let’s all remember that these guys were going to a place where they could fight the fire, save structures and maybe even some people. I believe that their objective was the town of Yarnell by way of the ranch. Anyway, this story feels like a punch in the gut. In the event of a fire a hotshot go towards it. My Lord I’m amazed by the bravery that these guys have running through their minds, bodies, and soul. The hotshots leaders need the latest technologies at their fingertips not some ten year old piece of junk that doesn’t always work correctly. I’ll make a few observations that isn’t meant to criticize anyone but to help in the future. It was the leaders call to deploy or to book it and the decision needed to be made when Eric first saw the fire coming up to the ranch from the south. The size, speed, and strength of this fire were obvious. Perhaps he should have ordered the crew to book it it toward the wash as the super’s knowledge of the shelters dictated that they would start to disintegrate at only 500* F. The fire was Closer to 2000*F which is not surviveable. If they had run it may have been close and maybe some would have made it. The fire was moving at 13mph. Conditioned individuals can run at about 15 mph for short durations. If Eric would have had the right technology he would have been able to make these decisions easier and quicker. They need the latest tech.
I hate when people ask, "Why did they move out of the black?", at 3:40pm, command requested them to come back to Yarnell to help protect structures, exactly 1 hour later, they were dead. Erich Marsh said multiple times within that hour that they were moving, yet air attack and command thought they were in the black. I hope they all got fired.
With or without technology. These guys fought there hardest to control this particular fire. All the could haves, should haves, and they needed this. Is irrelevant. It will forever be a tragedy. As Will, the Granite Mountain crew, be heroes. Never forget them. Their sacrifices, saved a lot! Rest in peace, to the entire granite mountain hot shots crew that we lost that day. You are, and will forever be; HEROS!
that fires can do unexpected things mean there has to be top tier communication all the time. if someone thinks they might tie up radio traffic, then carry two radios, two GPS, etc however many it takes. I know theres a lot of moving parts, but the last thing that should happen is a huge communication structure to have a breakdown like that not verifying and confirming.
So for the GPS thing I think the best thing that could be done is put a GPS transponder on each crew for a start a per person would be good but having one per crew or maybe 2 one of the officer and second in command or to give it to a split off crew so one always stays with the guy in charge of the the bulk of the crew and one that would float if guys were split off of the main group by a larger gap
I think the mere fact that the ranch looked a lot closer than it actually was, is perhaps why no one spoke out against leaving the black, and heading out in that direction. Four tenths of a mile doesn't appear to be a long ways away, especially from a higher point of observation. As one who has more than eight seasons from different West Coast Forests under his belt, and many off forest assignments elsewhere, I can personally testify to the fact that no one really thinks about being a hero when it comes to fighting wildfires. Safety always comes first and foremost. Obviously, no one actually thought that things would turn out the way that they did. We all know that fire creates its own weather, and yet there is still no way to anticipate the kind of unpredictable fire behavior that may occur, or that one might encounter. So there's always a certain element of chance (or risk) involved; which is something that we all tend to dismiss on a regular daily basis. It can't happen here. But when it does, it's no less tragic or inevitable than anything else that we fail to take into (serious) account. It's a dangerous world out there, and there is almost no way of avoiding the random nature of unexpected occurrences. Anything that can happen, ultimately will.
I'm curious, why does most videos made on Granite Mountains incident always seem to say "the crew" made the decision. All my years on Shot crews I can't remember a time when the Sup took a vote from the crew prior to making his or her decision on our next actions. Maybe the silence of the Esperanza Fire as to who gave what orders is in play. Its just troubling to me that after reading the "official" reports and other documentary evidence, theres more to the story. Just asking, god rest our fallen brothers souls.
@@NickTQ101 which is why the ranch was a predetermined safe zone. Makes sense for the team to DT to it, and renew the fight from there, except the flame front beat them to it.
All US military units in the field have GPS and are monitor on the Blue Force tracker and have been since before the invasion of Iraq and operations in Afghanistan. The Blue Force tracker is just not limited to Special Operations units. The Blue Force tracker system was well in use years before the Yarnell Hill fire.
Of note, he talks about three people being fired, Frejo - Prescott Fire dept, Chief of Yarnell and Yavapai County Chief. Darrell Willis, was the Prescott Wildland Division Chief, Marsh's boss at the time of loss. He was working near Model Creek/Peeples Valley and is quoted in other videos saying that he wanted Eric to do structure protection, not flank the fire. Now Eric was made DIV A sup on the fire. The more I watch and read, the more holes in the cheese. How did the actual Wildland Div Chief get a pass, but three other people that were indirectly involved with the fire got fired? Why were they fired?
There's a huge difference between assigning blame vs responsibility. A blind man can see that 18 men did NOT choose to go down into that bowl canyon. Question: on whose command did they descend? RIP GM Hotshots. 🙏
I love these investigators! Great job! I do wonder though... there was mention of cell phone usage from Granite Mntn, why didn't anyone think to ask the cell company to see where they pinged last? I'm not sure that's valid as of 2013 or not but seems to me at least now, cell phones can be a viable tracking option. In regards to the decision of the leaders of that unit, their history of decision making is key. Which the investigator did point out and qualified that they had no marks against them in that regard. You do that kind of work for 15-20 years, that sixth sense is automatic and instincts to the job well formulated. But just like Tim and his crew at El Reno for the tornado (very experienced, never a risk taker - same type of work with unpredictable environments and very dangerous) they got snuck up on... there's always going to be a first time situation in fire that investigatively after the fact, you just won't know exactly what happened based on evidence of past fire behavior, and critical decision making points. I say, if those crews put on the suit and have a reputation of excellent work, they get the benefit of the doubt no matter what. That includes in spite of other crews "liking" them or not. The government shouldn't even have a say in blame. They don't support ANYTHING that doesn't MAKE them money when it's time for blame. Firefighting will always be a drain not a pocket-liner. Enough said.
From my research on other tragic fatalities in fire it is always the case that the fire starts small, they leave it and then it overwhelmed. Prevention is always a key
You think they just let it burn? They rarely do that. Sometimes it’s good for a fire to burn. But for the most part once the fire is reported, firefighters are dispatched immediately. Then when they arrive they come up with tactics and safety hazards and weather or whatever and then they fight said fire. They don’t just “let it burn.”
That 15 mins on either end comment was eye opening. Had the crew taken an earlier, later, longer, shorter lunch...the whole situation may not have transpired when it did.
When a fire is 2500 it’s hot enough to flash boil moisture inside trees and cause them to pop like popcorn. You’re just SOL. I carry a compact 357 on me for that situation.
So 2 things with the shelter one you give a fire fighter or anyone better saftey equipment they will risk it that much more a good example is body armor with soldiers when you implement better armor solders take a bigger risk and secondly no fire shelter would survive 2000 degree direct flames at least a shelter that can be carried I guess you could make a 30 pound shelter/air supply that could survive it. It would come down to weight vs effectiveness to use my body armor annology there. You can make a complete armor system that looks like a bomb disposable suit that could protect the solder from most small arms fire but the suit weights 120 pounds and the soldier cant run with makes him less effective
Another key part of this 90 minute presentation is from minute 1:04 to 1:07. Mike Dudley makes a few profoundly incisive observations: (1) No one in the crew tried to bolt away from the deployment site. He had never seen this before. This crew had high unit cohesiveness. (2) This point is the most key. Dudley hopes that a few members of the crew would have had a gnawing sense that descending into the box canyon was the wrong thing to do. But they probably wouldn't challenge their superiors on this. (3) Dudley clearly states his team had no evidence that Erik Marsh was an excessive risk-taker. This whole talk by Mike Dudley is 90 minutes, but the most central insights come in the several minutes of 0:37 to 0:41 and 1:04 to 1:07. Everything else is prelude or postlude to these key few minutes.
@@TriColorMonk You should double check the time stamps. These time stamps are correct, as I just verified myself before leaving a stupid comment. What you seem to have failed to realize, is that 1:04 is (64) minutes in, not (64) seconds.
@@_Jado You need to double check your time stamps too. You made the same exact mistake. If I click your stamp it takes me to 1 minute 4 seconds in. I know the segment is an hour and 4 minutes in hence the correct time stamp is 1:04:00
In aviation they started to implement CRM (crew/cockpit resource management) techniques as far back as 1981, to prevent human error in decision making. Maybe this is something that the fire authorities should look into implementing, especially for small teams like the hotshots. Maybe then those few members that had a gnawing feeling would have had the procedural support to speak their minds.
Arguments between the leadership of GM about second guessing staying in the black or not, due to concerns for safety, may not have been heard by the entire crew and therefore cohesion remained intact during movement to the deployment site. Additionally from reports and the investigation GM were in the blind when it came to knowing just where the fire was moveing to on the other sides of the box canyon.
The original video that you are showing here, the one on the Yarnell fire has an audio level that is way too low. I turned it up, added a waves maximizer, de esser, and a little EQ. I used a dorrough meter. I saved it to a new audio/video file. I can upload it to my UA-cam channel and send you the link if your interested. Hard to listen to a UA-cam video with audio you can barely hear. .
The fire display video soundtrack mic must have been in the center of the room somewhere. The echo made it VERY difficult to hear what the presentation film female was actually saying. Need to watch a separate video for details, then watch this for comments.
I wonder if they should have left a lookout on the top, in the black, before they descended out of sight of the fire, to watch their backside. Maybe within 5 minutes he would have noticed the fire rapidly shifting and they could have made it back up. I know it was very steep though. So sad, hope the families are taken care of.
Personally I thank the biggest thing is the person making decisions regarding safety of the firefighters should be completely free of outside influence. No worries about budget no worries about perform or the program get canceled that way outside pressure does not influence their decision. A person's decision making can be influenced by outside sources without them even noticing it. Another thing I noticed is it seems that the incident evolved and conditions changed faster than information could be passed up the chain of command. And it left the decision makers making decisions with outdated information. I've never been on a Hotshot crew but I have worked on type 2 crew for quite a few seasons and I have personally seen information get sent to command and by the time a response is received this situation has completely changed again some new information has to be sent to command and by the time a response is received it has changed yet again fortunately it never resulted in a serious incident but during extreme weather the situation can change faster than decisions can be made. He talked about the air tanker and they have a checklist and they're going down it when they get halfway down they find out items one two and three have changed and it causes confusion I have seen it and I think that played a role here so command having accurate real-time data to base decisions on and not having to wait on observation and Report would make a huge difference not only in firefighter safety but would most likely make containment quicker and easier
Having visited the tragic site it reinforces the number one Rule of bushfire is one foot in the black ? Great review and analysis of a terrible loss of life for no reason
In addition further investigation showed stubs cut past the deployment site. Meaning was this route already readied prior as there supposed to do, have a escape route already dkne!
Basically, the Forest Service punted on determining probable cause for this incident because they were afraid of disagreement within the reporting team. That is unconscionable. Somebody needs to teach the Forest Service how to do incident investigations. They need to go take some lessons from the NTSB. In fact, the probable cause here was serious error by Marsh and Steed that went against multiple precepts of their training. This is not to "blame" Marsh and Steed. Rather, the Forest Service should have investigated why Marsh and Steed's extensive training did not prevent them from making the serious error of descending into the canyon. The aim should be to improve future training and also put in safeguards against crew leaders making serious errors that are uncharacteristic of their training or previous performance, safeguards like better communications, GPS technology, better overall incident management, etc.
Honestly I wonder if Granite mountain felt that leadership was ineffective against the fire having seen it blow up overnight when it should not have. Being left on the ridge rather than protecting the structures or getting picked up to help save yarnell may have motivated them to take a chance they should not have.
Please any one knowledgeable : was there any other option for them to stay safe and survive ? Like stay in the black or pick another way to the ranch ? Any one ? Was there a chance they could survive ?
There was if they would have stayed in the black which was serving as a safety zone. They left it because the fire was of no immediate threat at the moment. A lot can happen in the blink of an eye on the line, winds can change with no warning. That's exactly what happened. They left their zone to move onto another assignment and when you have tinder dry medium fuels you can't outrun the front
Ghaliyah ‘s world Yeah there was another option STAY OUT OF THE WAY OF NATURE. We humans are so arrogant to think that we are going to stop something like this. We spend millions and risk lives to save what? A rebuildable house, replaceable objects? When nature decides to remodel and clean up to start anew then all we need to do is watch and stay out of the way.
Some ther black is already burned and there's no fuel left, outs a very safe tennable position. That would have been their best bet. However, as all fire fighters are, they were eager and wanted to take care of business, not sit around and watch a town burn. They were aggressive, obviously too aggressive this time. Sometimes discretion is the better part of valor. RIP 19
So, no smoking gun, yet there were those who were fired over this, nitpicking at excuses and all were sacrificial lambs offered up to quell possible litigation? TO what end were these firings done? Appeasement? Paybacks? In then end, it was the crew that was responsible - as it always was and shall be on wild fires. Shit happened and it cost them their lives. THe real culprit was mother nature, which you cant fire. Its good to investigate these happenings, but sacrificial lambing is a knee jerk at best, and does absolutely nothing to ensure there will never be repeats of incidents such as Yarnell.
nwsrda1 I've heard several credible people in the wildland fire community that they were ordered to move down to the ranch because it was owned by a very influential local. Granite Mountain was funded by the city, and had issues with creating and maintaining the department. The local either directly or indirectly threatened to block funding if they didn't try to protect the ranch. I want to emphasize that I don't know if that's what really happened, and there's no evidence for it. If I hadn't heard it from who I did then I'd dismiss it outright. I'm not sure we'll ever know 100% why they left their safe zone. I agree that most of the blame should be on the crew's leadership because they could and should have refused orders.
facetiousbadger What about Donut McDonough being the one that reported the argument between GM Sup and GM Capt on staying in the black do to safety reasons?
Yup, and the same politicians who couldn't give two shits about our firefighters spare no expense protecting themselves and their fucking families. Fuck the interlopers put into office by the ignorant and the foolish!!!!
@ratliff2006 Fires don't spy on people, where human enemies might. Why didn't they light a fire and then enter the blackened area when they realized they were in trouble? Not enough time for it to burn down?
Also I wonder if part of this is do more with less coming from the top / outside the department. ie cost cutting. If there is pressure to cut costs and this happens, the people at the very top should get fired. But you know that will never happen
I agree they made a decision after the lookout was evacuated to make a straight run for the ranch maybe they have done this before but because of the many factors they didn't make it.
Just throwing out a few ideas that may be used as a fast escape safety strategy: 1) A support safety crew that maintains the escape zone with electric powered mountain bikes that can outrun a fire at over 20mph. Alternative would be dirt bikes. Alternative is to have the crew utilize the dirt bikes or electric mountain bikes. The mountain bikes would become a part of their tool set. 2) Alternative to a safety crew maintaining escape vehicles, a dedicated helicopter with a basket that can seat all members and get them out of the area quickly. 3) Areas where you have canyons, a zip line set up with basket, or multiple zip line wheels with disk breaking.
Ah, he explains the I-Team's investigative style ... automatic exoneration of all Yarnell parties unless there was a "criminal violation". I'd wondered how the investigation found no fault, when every single safety rule under the LCES wildfighter guidelines were broken at Yarnell. A full IHC crew doesn't get wiped out because the safety rules were followed; that happens because one or more people in positions of responsibility are not doing their jobs. We want to place the "HERO" label, and indeed there were heroes that day, but not every one of them was. It's also blasphemy to criticize heroes. But, giving everyone a free pass just because they are dead only means that more people will lose their lives. You cannot rely on officialdom to protect you. You have to get the facts and weight them yourself. Forget the movie... it's is "based" entertainment style on "real events". The movie is basically hogwash which in keeping with the movie's title uses artistic license to free all from blame. It is NOT a documentary, and if it told the real story the title would need to be changed to something like Only the Careless.
Very insightful comment; thanks for sharing them. The movie is great, well done, serves the purpose of drawing attention to the subject. I didn't know about the accident before watching it. But, as you pointed out, it does leave all that was done wrong out. Nature is the only responsible for the accident, and nobody can do anything about it. That's why I'm watching and reading lots of material about the Yarnell Fire accident. And your comment just added another dimension to my perception of things. Again, thank you for your insights.
Sad that you completely missed the point of the presentation. I assume you didn't watch the whole thing? If you had, you'd have heard him say that it all comes down to poor decisions. By dead men (Marsh +/- Steed) who paid for their mistake with their lives. What's the point of battering away at that again? It's not about exonerating anyone. It's about actually learning. Blame doesn't progress safety. In any case, the ADOSH report had plenty of blame for everyone. No fault is how you learn, not by pointing fingers. That just makes everyone clam up.
why not the locators that are used in lifeboats/life vests/avalanche location devices they are small, wearable, and can be activated as needed would they work and wouldn't they be more cost effective than a dedicated bandwidth on the radios...what color light shows up best against a firestorm ? would some kind of strobing emergency light be helpful ? In my opinion if you fight fires safety and aftercare HAVE to be part of all budgets and should have some agency that is prepared to oversee this ....this is a part that can not be defunded Ever there has to be creativity and willingness to try to secure some form of "investment strategy" that even if it sounds like a weird idea you have to be willing to try All Life matters don't short change the people you expect to save you..and it's way past time to bring our National Guardsmen Home NOW... just think how much extra manpower and the type of equipment (resources) that adds ....I really like the speaker in this , he's right education/training this is key overall and not just the teams the communities the families everyone should be informed regarding what should be expected, you just can not make good decisions when you are in the dark
Lifeboat EPIRB accuracy is 2 to 5 km, not nearly accurate enough for wildfires. Avalanche beacons that broadcast at 457 kHz doesn't tell anyone their actual location in terms of coordinates, you use a transceiver to locate them in the snow. It would be of limited use for air drops.
People talk a lot about assigning blame to individuals, or warning signs that were ignored. But I have come around to thinking that the biggest thing that Mike Dudley and others do not understand is that it is seriously sinful to send men into these wildfire danger zones without the latest technology. From the perspective of Silicon Valley (where I live), the technical support at the Yarnell fire was a joke. GPS technology has been around for over 20 years. It is ridiculous that the forest service does not place a GPS transponder on each and every hotshot fighter, so that the central command can always know exactly where each hotshot is at any moment. If our society is not willing to equip these hotshot teams with the latest technology, then we should not have these hotshot teams in the fist place. Sending these wildfire teams into the fire zone without the latest technology borders on intentional manslaughter. As Mike Dudley said, the central command (and also Blue Ridge) thought Granite Mountain was still in the safe black zone. If central command had seen Granite Mountain moving toward the box canyon, they could have warned them that the fire was approaching that canyon rapidly. So as a result, young children will grow up without their fathers because our society did not want to spend money on providing the latest technology to these firefighters. Shameful.
Robin Martin how would gps devices been completely useless? Up until the very last moments, there was confusion within IC, dispatch, and the fire retardant equipped air tankers as to where exactly the crew was. Gps could've cleared that up. Would the outcome have been different? I don't know, but neither do you, and it's pretty clear the gps devices would be an asset in these complex fires. Even if it's impossible for someone to see the picture every given second, you don't think there would be value in say the superintendent saying "we are attempting to go x because of x.....dispatch this is gps signature 12764....do you have eyes on an escape route?" Total hypothetical and maybe that's not a great example, but gps is a great tool.
chris casula totally agree about them needing gps, but just regarding the air attack, I believe I read recently that it was so hot and so intense that a drop or two wouldn’t have helped much. Again it’s all theory sadly, but wasn’t that the case?
Ilya Feynberg I don’t dispute that at all, it does seem pretty likely that by the time they descended into that canyon and lost sight of the front, things were in motion. A drop or two wouldn’t have likely saved them. I’m saying though that before they made that choice or the preceding 2 or3 choices even, it would’ve helped. There was huge confusion about where they were as far as IC and other crews. Everyone thought they were at the complete opposite end of the fire because of less than clear talk of being in the black. A gps ping would’ve instantly notified IC that they were in fact elsewhere. That could’ve led to further communication and a different plan of egress. I know it’d be impossible to track everyone all the time in a complex event. However, a crew making a totally strategic egress/position change would be an obvious time to focus in on their movements. Between the crew and IC they could’ve said “we are at these coordinates and are planning on regrouping at these other coordinates heading a on a such and such bearing via the obvious ridgetop to the such and such side of the fire...dispatch do you copy, please advise”. I just pulled that out of my ass, but effective communication and gps locating would’ve been an asset and would be an asset in any complex fire like this.
Yes, I understand what you mean and I completely agree. It's the series of dominos that had to all line up before they could fall, and it never should have come to that point to start with. I agree completely. I think that our firefighters are well under equipped overall and across the nation, and not just wildland firefighters but seems to be especially them. It's almost as if they're seen as a "side hustle" or something which is of course total nonsense. I only say that because funding and attention is what seem to be preventing lots of incredible technology and new life saving devices that are already there and developed or on the verge of being developed and just need that little extra funding push to make it into the hands of these incredible men and women. Fire shelters being one of them and despite the success of the current issue fire shelters throughout the year they have too many limits and depend on way too many "just right" factors for survival. I have to find the link to the video but there's a video you by NASA where after the Yarnell tragedy they reached out to the forest service to help develop new materials for fire shelters that they already have developed that are lightyears beyond the aluminum foil shelters in use today. Ones that are meant to protect very sensitive tech reentering the earth's atmosphere at 3,000 F. Nasa has already said that the materials aren't a problem they're already there, and that they know how to keep the heat down to a survivable temp within the shelter and the air breathable for long enough for most really intense fires to pass over, only challenge now is making it small and light enough to fit into a pack and they just need the resources push. Nasa is already strained for funding and last I checked there do not seem to be any plans to move this along.
Chris and Ilya, I agree that GPS enabling a life-saving air drop in this case was a long shot. It might have worked, but only maybe. The real value of GPS would have been that someone's eyes at central command could have seen that Granite Mountain was about to do something very dangerous. In particular, if central command had heard from Blue Ridge that they rescued Granite Mountain's lookout moments before his death, they might have deduced that Granite Mountain needed to make one of the other three choices (Dudley's explanation) rather than the deadly fourth choice of descending into the box canyon. If we cannot equip hotshot crews with individual GPS, then we should not have hotshot crews in the first place. In this day and age, it is wrong to have one without the other.
While everyone else argues over GPS monitors, can I suggest giving at least one member of each Hot Shot crew a balloon kit that can be launched at least 100 meters in the air for pilots to locate crews quickly? I feel,from a pilots perspective, this would be the most effective and fast way to locate and save a crew's life.
@@babybrat2958 maybe the mavic is small for the application, but most drones that fly 1 hour or more have no trouble in wind due to battery weight and prop size.
I just read some of the comments. I can tell most of the people have not been on the fire line themselves. It’s not what you think. It’s easy to be an “armchair quarterback, but not the real thing. They did what they thought they should. Yes, they could’ve sat in the black, but firefighters have a hard time sitting still, and that’s why they get things done. No one is to blame. Men just don’t move as fast as nature, no matter how much technology is available. I am still heartbroken though.
Chris Anderson Sr No sir, a jolly volly from the east coast. Love the Western landscapes with such high respect for you guys. Ain’t a structure guy out there who will say otherwise!
TriColorMonk - I must say though that I have equal respect for those who fight structure fires and answer emergency calls every day. Their fire engines are much prettier than ours are too!
The comment: "What do we need to modify training?" Well, a really simple thig to add is a few practice classroom training maps with the following information: This is a work sheet with map and 10 scenario variations. You are the IC, and your crew is dealing with the following circumstances: The following information would already be placed on a map for classroom and/or homework: 1) A topographical map of an actual fire outlined in its earliest stages. 2) A point on the map where the safety spot is to be located. 3) A point on the map where 19 crew members are located, they are together at a lunch spot. 4) A known weather condition: Wind blowing the fire head toward the safety spot at a wind speed of 40mph. 5) The lunch spot and the safety zone are a distance apart (as was the case with the Yarnell tragedy). Question to answer: 1) How long will it take for the fire head to reach the safety spot? 2) How long will it take for the 19 Hotshots to reach the safety spot? 3) If you discover that the fire head will reach the safety spot in less time than it takes for the Hotshots to reach the safety spot, what should you do?
So sad, so money was put ahead of safety of people ? When they could put the fire down with the air tanker and he refused? This should be a standard procedure before sending people. Kill the fire right at the start- this is all I learnt from al the tragedies that happened in forest fires.
No experienced expert in these firefighting situations could have expected the change in the fire's actions. Normally the fire would have taken over an hour to move from where the Granite Mtn Hotshots last saw its location in the black to the canyon that cut them off from the safety Ranch. The fire change its behaviour radically racing at 50 mph to cover the distance in less than fifteen minutes rather than more than an hour they expected. The analysis of the weather that day shows how unique this circumstance was with both a cyclone and anticyclone which drove the fire front at 40mph to their relocating position cutting them off and killing these heroes. These HEROES tried to move from the black to their Safety Ranch and Got caught by the racing flame front.1) A new Watchout should be created to ALWAYS keep Eyes on the Fire and Stay on the Ridge if at all Possible instead of losing Sight of the fire in Canyons or draws. 2)Also they should be equipped with real shelters stainless sheets with aluminum cloth keeping them together and Sheep wool insulation inside. 3)NEXT they should have O2 canisters to breath. The Fire stole their oxygen. 4)NEXT they should have a couple of Steel cable kites to locate themselves to aircraft. 5)NEXT Hotshots should have access to aircraft channel and aircraft should have to monitor it and air channels. This is NOT a Climate change issue it IS a 50 Year Buildup of Unburnt Fuel Issue. All Hotshot Crews MUST utilize Quads and or Raptors to carry crew; increase Ingress egress from Sites; Carry extra equipment radios GPS O2 Cans; Walkie Talkies; Equipment on Raptors to Clear and Cut trail quicker; Reduce crew and exposure to injury and Death to possibly 12 from 20 crew members due to faster positioning and Equipment on Raptor to speed cutting line ..
"We didn't want a minority report". Just like in the movie "Minority Report", it must be destroyed! So the sanitized version is all we'll hear. Congratulations. If preventing fatalities is the highest priority, minority reports should be welcomed because they help to color the picture. There is no report that gets it right, and discussion and different perspectives help us to draw out the lessons that we can apply to our own specific situations.
I think GPS would have been a good idea. They would have survived if they had a cheap GPS on them. Of course they shouldn't have ever walked into needless danger as they did. But humans will keep making really dangerous mistakes as humans will remain human. So yeah, give them a cheap GPS for when they make those extremely irresponsible decisions, as they will make them at some point. That cannot be avoided. Such a blue collar crew is better at doing vs. sitting down and calculating minor details. Which is why I think it's a bit silly to completely dismiss the GPS idea with "they just need to stop making mistakes, simple".
As a German only now I by chance stumbled onto this tragedy. There are biological factors I miss in the entire discussion. The constant inhalation of highly toxic fumes, Carbon monoxide -that can block respiration for up to 10 days after exposure Fatigue, no regeneration - was there alcohol, drugs involved - was there existential anxiety about Money, job loss, reputation, was there any fear of Leadership - superiros... all factors vastly creating stress and decision fatigue. And the hero attitude: we cannot fail, we are the best,t, superior, we can handle anything... Those are responsibilities of GOOD leadership - to know what you are doing - and you better do not do. What startles me, in Germany the most: what effect did all that dangerous work have on the spread of the fire? Seems to me around zero. A sacrifice of expendables. To accomplish - what...
I am sure GPS is at a point today that it was not a year ago, every smart phone has very accurate GPS. that's how simple programs like UBER work. an excuse about cost and or band width in todays world is simply a cop out.
The crew couldn't clearly see the fire and how fast it was moving when the fire "blew up". That was the critical mistake when they moved down in the box canyon. 15-20 minutes earlier or later and the GM Crew would be fine. I fought range fires myself for 4 fire seasons and fires can be very unpredictable. Don't lose track of the fire and how fast it is moving. That box canyon with high really dry fuels coupled with the high winds was a death sentence. Going into the box canyon in that circumstance was just a bad decision just like Captain Smith not stopping for the night in an icefield when the Titanic hit the iceberg. 99 times out of a hundred they are ok in both instances but this time both Granite Mountain and the Titanic got bit on it! To bad GM couldn't have used water from the Water from the Atlantic Ocean on the front of the fire! Fire is very unpredictable, I learned that in 4 fire seasons. High winds + very dry fuel + high temperatures and you can get lit up!!!! To bad, my heart really goes out to the families and especially the crew members were killed!
"Good, solid black" means that it has already been burned and so cannot burn again? Also, If there is too much fuel anyway, so that the fire is useful, why bother fighting fires off road at all? Why not assign everyone to structure protection and let offroad areas burn?
"Good, solid black" means that it has already been burned and so cannot burn again? " Right. It means the plants have been burned already, so there is no more fuel for the fire. You can't burn a shrub twice. "Also, If there is too much fuel anyway, so that the fire is useful, why bother fighting fires off road at all? Why not assign everyone to structure protection and let offroad areas burn?" The town of Prescott and Yarnell were in immediate danger if the fire were to take off, so they needed to get a handle on it before it reached those towns. If they waited until the fire front was at the structures before fighting it, then they would be overwhelmed very fast and they stood no chance saving those structures. They needed to contain the fire as much as possible and they had a chance until that outflow boundary hit. At that point, the fire exploded out of control and the Hotshots got overrun.
@@JacobHernandez Your sure that if the hotshots, and everyone else, had spent the entire time clearing brush away from the structures at the edge of town instead of hiking out into the forest, that they still could not have saved the town?
I hate to say "follow the money" but, after watching this, that's what I believe happened. Marsh had recently written a letter to the bean counters to justify the need to maintain and even expand the hotshots. Sit in the black or engage?
It's so easy to say what should have could have .The fact is those young men were there to do a job. You can break it down look at it inside and out but unless your there facing what they faced you will never know. That has gone with them..They were heroes!!And now guardian ANGELS!!
Now we know Marsh made it to the Ranch. Steed called Marsh and were not going to make it. Marsh replied I know I'm sorry. Somehow Marsh made it back to die with his crew.
How do we know that? I don't think anyone will ever know , but I don't think he made it. There would have been no time for him to go a mile away to run a mile back to die?
@@somersfamily It was 600 yards back to his crew. What would he have if he survived . His crew burned alive which was his fault. This is the conversation Donut heard and told the Chief...Darrell Willis. He has never spoken of it again.
So let me get this straight. If the V lat flew like originally planned. This would have been over the first night. So let’s spend millions instead of thousands. Makes sense. Government
Firing people is so fucking wrong these mem were in the black they left there safety zone for reasons unknown ive never heard of firing commanders after an incident like this.. people make mistakes and we learn from them but firing people for these kinds of accidents is wrong, mother nature is ultimately the IC she makes the calls and decided if she wants you to put the fire out or not.
Did they leave or were they ordered by Mash, there is new talk that Mash and Steed were in conversation about Steed leaving the black and coming down to the ranch there is strong suggestion that Mash was already down at the ranch, that Steed was well reluctant to leave the black till Mash ordered him down to the ranch, there is evidence that a camera was returned to a relative without going through evidence protocol that Marsh's phone was returned to the widow in the same way, these were vital pieces of evidence why were they not treated as such, something indeed stinks
The absolutely critical discussion about decision-making on going out of the black into what would be the death zone begins at 56:15. Anybody who wants to understand crisis leadership decision making, start there. Entire video is valuable though.
Darrell Willis was one of those individuals who said granite bay hotshots were moving to save the buildings at the ranch. Well .. he needs to listen to this. The hotshots were pure wildland firefighters and not cross trained in structure fire fighting. Secondly .. the ranch was a good safety zone, well cleared with adequate clearance around the buildings. Why would the hotshots feel the need to save the ranch? Willis was over his head and without correct information he should not have given that site press conference shortly after the fire. Ive listened to this several times. The bureaucracies involved in the numerous fire fighting agencies is incredible .. but .. not surprising given the nature of governments. Governments intentionally create convoluted organizations so that jobs can be created and if things go south no accountability and blame can be attributed to any one person.
I firmly believe all crews should have at least 1 woman on the crew ... why? because few women will ever think they can use physical strength to overcome poor judgement. They bring an important perspective of caution that sometimes can be lost in more ego driven decision making.
The problem is that fearful and weak people are seldom people who speak up when push comes to shove. Try to watch Chernobyl by HBO. Notice how the workers who knew exactly how extremely dangerous it was to play around with a nuclear power plant just followed orders because they were afraid of the higher ups. When you are fearful, but people around you just want to solve problems fast, then you may just find it easier to just go along for now until the day you quit your job or get stress. You are extremely attuned to spot danger so of course you spot the fact that your boss is angry at you. And if speaking up is okay then these problems wouldn't happen at all. Some of those firefighters for sure understood how extremely dangerous and stupid it was to go into a huge fire hazard like that. They had the option to speak up and warn the group to make sure they didn't walk into a death trap. For some reason that did not happen effectively. They for sure did see it though and they fore sure would have had a timid and careful person amongst them who could spot such death traps. I for one would plain and simply refuse to follow a command like that. But could I convince the other 18 people to stay back? Most likely not. Not unless I was the leader of the group. So I wouldn't be able to save anyone and neither would a timid small woman who can't lift her own weight. And if the fire didn't kill them the boss would fire me at the end of the day. Then I suddenly wouldn't be amongst them anymore and they would call me a coward.
We may never know all the details that lead to the critical decision to enter the box canyon. If anyone knows, they’re not saying. The group is very insular. Hopefully it won’t happen again.
Walked into a firey death because they were afraid of what people would think of them if they didn't. Shamed into doing that by idiots who weren't even there to see the full situation. Tragic indeed.
It's easy they were killed because they were the first municipal hotshot crew they were going to start up crews like this all over it would have taken hold stamping out the need for federal hotshots it's all about the money.
Ratliff2006 listen here you low life piece of shit Eric Marsh’s shit is more of a man then you’ll ever be. Quit trying to put what happened on him were you there? Did you hear the discussion witch lead up to descions? No didn’t thank so. You couldn’t do a quarter of the work those men did your to much of a coward fuck you punk
He is a great speaker and is very patient with the questions. RIP great men!
Excellent presentation. Very informative of the circumstances of a deeply tragic situation. Thanks for posting.
if you asked me a year ago if i'd be watching a lecture on fire safety and the disaster that befell yarnell, i'd say no. this is intriguing
Fantastic presenter, good lord. You can tell he knows this incident like the backside of his hand. And he’s very patient with and articulate in answering the question.
this guy has given alot of speeches and it shows. cant believe I watched the whole thing. strong work brother.
Brilliant facilitation.... a very well delivered briefing...
ireachy well said
Someone tell me what the living hell what were Eric and Steed thinking when they marched their men down a damn box canyon without a lookout. Any person who has taken a basic wildfire class knows you do not go into a box canyon during a fire.
The last photos Granite Mountain took clearly show cold air off the thermal crushing the ventilation, not allowing heat to escape and super heated air being pushed out horizontal, preheating the fuels ahead of it. They never should of tried to beat it to "Save the Town"!
I think this all comes down to temptation overcoming caution. The key part of Mike Dudley's talk is minutes 37 to 41, where he talks about the temptation to hike from the saddle to the ranch, even though the crew had three other safe options. Multiple rules of wildfire fighting should have been crying out to Eric Marsh and Jesse Steed not to make that hike through the canyon: (1) They would lose visibility of the fire and they had no lookout. (2) They knew from weather reports that squirrrely weather was in the area and winds could change any moment. (3) The path to the ranch and the surrounding area was filled with 40-year-old fuels ready to burn. (4) A box canyon acts just like a fireplace, creating an ideal situation for a fire to burn through quickly, and leaving the crew no option of escape. In spite of all this, the temptation to hike to the ranch overcame Marsh and Steed, and the result was tragedy. So just like Captain Smith on the Titanic, choosing to speed through the ice field rather than stop his ship, and just like Captain McSorley choosing to power through a Lake Superior gale rather than seek safe harbor for the Edmund Fitzgerald, temptation overcame Marsh and Steed, and they chose the risky option, not the safe ones. If we are to point fingers, it should be at the training and practices of the wildfire service. There need to be stronger safeguards in place (like GPS) to kick in when temptation overwhelms a crew supervisor. It is immoral to send crews into such a highly dangerous situation without the latest technology and full fire management support.
Joe Quinlan what exactly was the temptation to head there? Can you elaborate on that?
Chris, isn't it pretty self-evident from the video, especially minutes 37 to 41? Did you listen to the video, especially those minutes? As Mike Dudley indicates, the team wanted to engage with the fire, and the easiest way to do that was to make it to the ranch and take it from there. Unfortunately, they died en route to the ranch. Personally, I think the whole concept of hotshot crews is misguided. There ought to be much stronger safeguards (like GPS) in place if we are going to let people get this close to wildfire. Otherwise, we will continue to lose people like this.
@@jerryjerrylahngenhairy4724, this is a very important point. We are sending government employees into places where they are risking their lives, and we can't even spend the money to put a GPS transponder on each one of them? What a blatant disregard for the value of human life!
Joe Quinlan @Joe Quinlan Agreed, but even with GPS going into the canyon was a risky chess move. Did you find it interesting at 29:00 he mentioned 3 fire chiefs, from 3 departments being let go? I overlooked this for nearly a half decade.
@@Dutch1982 I don't think these terminations were directly related to the deaths of the fire fighters, but rather the mis-management of the Yarnell Hill fire overall. They let it burn too long, were way too late in sending in resources, and did not make use of all the resourced available to them, such as helicopters with buckets and lakes designated for filling them. As for going into the canyon, yes it was a serious mistake by Marsh and Steed. My point is that there will always be a chance that a leader will make a stupid mistake. GPS is the insurance policy against that situation; other people could have seen that Marsh was making a really bad mistake.
That guy did a hell of a job on that presentation. Well done and really sad
I totally agree with you.
I loved it finally someone said it pretty much poor decisions technology does not save us it always comes down to human factor
Good Lord, only a matter of fifteen minutes would've made a difference!
777
Just not over it, 6 yrs later.
I’m still not at peace with 19 of my brothers dying. What does give me solace is that I know that firefighters don’t join the cause to be safe. They were doing something they loved with their “family “. The best job I’ve ever had and will ever have. It still is frickin heartbreaking though, 7 years later.
This sucks. I am trying to figure out how to respond to earlier comments. I am sorry these guys died. But I have to ask why did they follow an obviously flawed plan, maybe it didn’t seem like it at the time. But in my experience they knew this was not good.
Marsh got em all killed. He sent em all down the canyon towards the ranch. And all for nothing. The ranch ended up untouched.
The guy speaking does a very good job explaining what he can.
I can't even count how many times I have watched this video and many others on Yarnell Hill, South Canyon, Thirty Mile etc... Read all the books. This seminar is extremely well done. After reading all the blogs and investigative reports, there are some things that I just can't come to any other conclusion than the powers that be are involved in a cover up, most likely to protect the fallen supervisors, families and the departments involved in this mess. You absolutely cannot deny that the ultimate decision to descend through the canyon lies with Marsh and Steed. Even if Marsh ordered Steed or someone else ordered Marsh, they had the ultimate responsibility for the decisions for their crew. They violated so many 10/18's it's almost unfathomable! Why? Was it fatigue, bravado, duty? Why hasn't McDonough ever given a statement under oath? Is there any validity to his alleged statement about Marsh and Steed arguing and if there was, why wouldn't he have told Brian Frisby with Blue Ridge to get hold of Marsh and talk him out of it? How are there no radio communications for 30 minutes until the final calls for help? The fact that no one was watching over them or even aware where they were is mind blowing. Even more crazy is I understand they did a staff ride to South Canyon just a year before and said it would never happen to them? It literally did! Tragic...but what has changed?
There's just no answer to your questions and that is sad. The conclusion is Marsh and Steed made the wrong decision. Why they made such a mistake is unknown. One possible explanation is they were hungover from the night before and also were tired. Eric Marsh even wrote on the chalkboard that he was "68%. I just think they were tired and hungover and made a fatal decision. The ultimate question is how in the hell does a hotshot crew decide to enter a box canyon during a fire with zero lookout. Everyone knows a box canyon is the same as literally being inside a fireplace. My only conclusion is Eric Marsh did not property train Steed to make his own decisions and to question Marsh when he did something bad. Steed should have stopped Marsh and said "My team is not going".
I've read a lot about this tragedy too. Brandon M said that he caught crosstalk on his radio between Steed and Marsh, and they were arguing. I think Steed wanted to hold up in the lunch spot, and Marsh basically ordered him to proceed to the ranch. Bad decisions, bad radio reception, and the unpredictable winds, equal the potential for a tragic ending. I'm confused on why the left the good black, where they were safe.
What makes you think it was a cover up? And what were they trying to cover up?
@@gumbi8989 9Its definately something when the most important communications regarding this tragedy has barely been acknowledged and virtually ignored by every major media coverage as well as investigation.
There should be massive interest in those final comms between Marth and. Steed.
I think theres a lot of presure to avoid criticizing the deceased. This is supposed to be a tragedy befallen upon heros and thats how they want it despite the obvious that they chose to go into a situation every hotshot knows is terrib
@@gumbi8989 Too many missing elements in the investigation, like where are the rest of the communications between the crew, cell phone calls, texts etc? It was my understanding in other videos that Blue Ridge was not allowed to comment, why? If McDonough gave his radio to Blue Ridge supervisor when he was picked up, wouldn't they have heard crew talking on the descent to deployment site? Reading other blogs, watching videos from John Dougherty, Debra Pfingston and Joy Collura to name a few, they speak of another theory about a backfire being lit around Sesame street and have some evidence to back it up, but they were all suppressed and stone walled. If that was true, could that backfire of merged with or ahead of the main advancing fire line and beat it to the crew, cutting it off? That would have been something they weren't prepared for and explain how they got over taken so quickly. The SAIR Report and this video, while it doesn't specifically name anyone or entity to blame, it essentially lays the responsibility with the crew and blames bad luck, abnormal weather shift event. When you watch the video from South Canyon, by Eric Hipke, it is easy to see the different elements that lead to the tragedy and the WF community learned from it and training was improved. When I look at this loss, knowing all the training and knowledge Marsh and his crew had since then, it is so hard to accept that they alone dismissed such basic rules that lead to their deaths. I am shocked that Wildfire LLC hasn't even released a case study on this event in nearly ten years now.
This guy is a very good speaker.
The more I learn about it the more I see the pure instincts of cutting the shortcut and get to the ranch. Even if involving violating few rules which all us do from time to time. This time just they cross it too far and run out of luck. Sad. Respect. This will stay with me forever
Let’s all remember that these guys were going to a place where they could fight the fire, save structures and maybe even some people. I believe that their objective was the town of Yarnell by way of the ranch. Anyway, this story feels like a punch in the gut. In the event of a fire a hotshot go towards it. My Lord I’m amazed by the bravery that these guys have running through their minds, bodies, and soul. The hotshots leaders need the latest technologies at their fingertips not some ten year old piece of junk that doesn’t always work correctly. I’ll make a few observations that isn’t meant to criticize anyone but to help in the future. It was the leaders call to deploy or to book it and the decision needed to be made when Eric first saw the fire coming up to the ranch from the south. The size, speed, and strength of this fire were obvious. Perhaps he should have ordered the crew to book it it toward the wash as the super’s knowledge of the shelters dictated that they would start to disintegrate at only 500* F. The fire was Closer to 2000*F which is not surviveable. If they had run it may have been close and maybe
some would have made it. The fire was moving at 13mph. Conditioned individuals can run at about 15 mph for short durations. If Eric would have had the right technology he would have been able to make these decisions easier and quicker. They need the latest tech.
I hate when people ask, "Why did they move out of the black?", at 3:40pm, command requested them to come back to Yarnell to help protect structures, exactly 1 hour later, they were dead. Erich Marsh said multiple times within that hour that they were moving, yet air attack and command thought they were in the black. I hope they all got fired.
@@saucejohnson9862 there was no such order. Wildland fire fighters do not fight structures.
With or without technology. These guys fought there hardest to control this particular fire. All the could haves, should haves, and they needed this. Is irrelevant. It will forever be a tragedy. As Will, the Granite Mountain crew, be heroes. Never forget them. Their sacrifices, saved a lot! Rest in peace, to the entire granite mountain hot shots crew that we lost that day. You are, and will forever be; HEROS!
that fires can do unexpected things mean there has to be top tier communication all the time. if someone thinks they might tie up radio traffic, then carry two radios, two GPS, etc however many it takes. I know theres a lot of moving parts, but the last thing that should happen is a huge communication structure to have a breakdown like that not verifying and confirming.
So for the GPS thing I think the best thing that could be done is put a GPS transponder on each crew for a start a per person would be good but having one per crew or maybe 2 one of the officer and second in command or to give it to a split off crew so one always stays with the guy in charge of the the bulk of the crew and one that would float if guys were split off of the main group by a larger gap
1:15:35 He says it very clear, this came down to leadership and their decisions.
I think the mere fact that the ranch looked a lot closer than it actually was, is perhaps why no one spoke out against leaving the black, and heading out in that direction. Four tenths of a mile doesn't appear to be a long ways away, especially from a higher point of observation. As one who has more than eight seasons from different West Coast Forests under his belt, and many off forest assignments elsewhere, I can personally testify to the fact that no one really thinks about being a hero when it comes to fighting wildfires. Safety always comes first and foremost. Obviously, no one actually thought that things would turn out the way that they did. We all know that fire creates its own weather, and yet there is still no way to anticipate the kind of unpredictable fire behavior that may occur, or that one might encounter. So there's always a certain element of chance (or risk) involved; which is something that we all tend to dismiss on a regular daily basis. It can't happen here. But when it does, it's no less tragic or inevitable than anything else that we fail to take into (serious) account. It's a dangerous world out there, and there is almost no way of avoiding the random nature of unexpected occurrences. Anything that can happen, ultimately will.
I think when the wind switched, the smoke got overwhelming and they believed the ranch was a better safe spot.... just my opinion
I'm curious, why does most videos made on Granite Mountains incident always seem to say "the crew" made the decision. All my years on Shot crews I can't remember a time when the Sup took a vote from the crew prior to making his or her decision on our next actions. Maybe the silence of the Esperanza Fire as to who gave what orders is in play. Its just troubling to me that after reading the "official" reports and other documentary evidence, theres more to the story. Just asking, god rest our fallen brothers souls.
Marsh got em all killed. He sent em all down the canyon towards the ranch. And all for nothing. The ranch wasn't touched by the fire.
@@NickTQ101 which is why the ranch was a predetermined safe zone. Makes sense for the team to DT to it, and renew the fight from there, except the flame front beat them to it.
All US military units in the field have GPS and are monitor on the Blue Force tracker and have been since before the invasion of Iraq and operations in Afghanistan. The Blue Force tracker is just not limited to Special Operations units. The Blue Force tracker system was well in use years before the Yarnell Hill fire.
Great point: Lost Of people were taking very few were communicating.
Of note, he talks about three people being fired, Frejo - Prescott Fire dept, Chief of Yarnell and Yavapai County Chief. Darrell Willis, was the Prescott Wildland Division Chief, Marsh's boss at the time of loss. He was working near Model Creek/Peeples Valley and is quoted in other videos saying that he wanted Eric to do structure protection, not flank the fire. Now Eric was made DIV A sup on the fire. The more I watch and read, the more holes in the cheese. How did the actual Wildland Div Chief get a pass, but three other people that were indirectly involved with the fire got fired? Why were they fired?
There's a huge difference between assigning blame vs responsibility.
A blind man can see that 18 men did NOT choose to go down into that bowl canyon. Question: on whose command did they descend?
RIP GM Hotshots. 🙏
I love these investigators! Great job! I do wonder though... there was mention of cell phone usage from Granite Mntn, why didn't anyone think to ask the cell company to see where they pinged last? I'm not sure that's valid as of 2013 or not but seems to me at least now, cell phones can be a viable tracking option. In regards to the decision of the leaders of that unit, their history of decision making is key. Which the investigator did point out and qualified that they had no marks against them in that regard. You do that kind of work for 15-20 years, that sixth sense is automatic and instincts to the job well formulated. But just like Tim and his crew at El Reno for the tornado (very experienced, never a risk taker - same type of work with unpredictable environments and very dangerous) they got snuck up on... there's always going to be a first time situation in fire that investigatively after the fact, you just won't know exactly what happened based on evidence of past fire behavior, and critical decision making points. I say, if those crews put on the suit and have a reputation of excellent work, they get the benefit of the doubt no matter what. That includes in spite of other crews "liking" them or not. The government shouldn't even have a say in blame. They don't support ANYTHING that doesn't MAKE them money when it's time for blame. Firefighting will always be a drain not a pocket-liner. Enough said.
From my research on other tragic fatalities in fire it is always the case that the fire starts small, they leave it and then it overwhelmed. Prevention is always a key
YES! They should have gone up the night the lightening hit or the morning after while the fire was easily containable.
You think they just let it burn? They rarely do that. Sometimes it’s good for a fire to burn. But for the most part once the fire is reported, firefighters are dispatched immediately. Then when they arrive they come up with tactics and safety hazards and weather or whatever and then they fight said fire. They don’t just “let it burn.”
,4 miles to the ranch from deployment site. That is the first time I heard that. Makes me very sad.
If the lookout gave his radio to the Blue ridge SI...didn't they still hear what was said on GM own line?
At 1:10:45 tells me everything about this tragedy.
That 15 mins on either end comment was eye opening. Had the crew taken an earlier, later, longer, shorter lunch...the whole situation may not have transpired when it did.
Admits that they were in the wrong... " No one would of known " ... Skipping steps in this career ... Sounds like they tried going through a x zone
Yes each hotshot should have a transponder/gps on them. And better shelters
That situation was just a nightmare, I hope the fire took them quickly.
When a fire is 2500 it’s hot enough to flash boil moisture inside trees and cause them to pop like popcorn. You’re just SOL. I carry a compact 357 on me for that situation.
@* AnimalHeadSpirit * That idea seems to make sense. What temps did Space Shuttle experience on re-entry?
So 2 things with the shelter one you give a fire fighter or anyone better saftey equipment they will risk it that much more a good example is body armor with soldiers when you implement better armor solders take a bigger risk and secondly no fire shelter would survive 2000 degree direct flames at least a shelter that can be carried I guess you could make a 30 pound shelter/air supply that could survive it. It would come down to weight vs effectiveness to use my body armor annology there. You can make a complete armor system that looks like a bomb disposable suit that could protect the solder from most small arms fire but the suit weights 120 pounds and the soldier cant run with makes him less effective
@* AnimalHeadSpirit * the question is how heavy is the material
Is this a news conference or a debrief for fellow firefighter leadership to best avoid a similar incident?
Another key part of this 90 minute presentation is from minute 1:04 to 1:07. Mike Dudley makes a few profoundly incisive observations: (1) No one in the crew tried to bolt away from the deployment site. He had never seen this before. This crew had high unit cohesiveness. (2) This point is the most key. Dudley hopes that a few members of the crew would have had a gnawing sense that descending into the box canyon was the wrong thing to do. But they probably wouldn't challenge their superiors on this. (3) Dudley clearly states his team had no evidence that Erik Marsh was an excessive risk-taker.
This whole talk by Mike Dudley is 90 minutes, but the most central insights come in the several minutes of 0:37 to 0:41 and 1:04 to 1:07. Everything else is prelude or postlude to these key few minutes.
Double check your time stamps.
@@TriColorMonk You should double check the time stamps. These time stamps are correct, as I just verified myself before leaving a stupid comment. What you seem to have failed to realize, is that 1:04 is (64) minutes in, not (64) seconds.
@@_Jado You need to double check your time stamps too. You made the same exact mistake. If I click your stamp it takes me to 1 minute 4 seconds in. I know the segment is an hour and 4 minutes in hence the correct time stamp is 1:04:00
@@TriColorMonk Got 'em
In aviation they started to implement CRM (crew/cockpit resource management) techniques as far back as 1981, to prevent human error in decision making. Maybe this is something that the fire authorities should look into implementing, especially for small teams like the hotshots. Maybe then those few members that had a gnawing feeling would have had the procedural support to speak their minds.
Arguments between the leadership of GM about second guessing staying in the black or not, due to concerns for safety, may not have been heard by the entire crew and therefore cohesion remained intact during movement to the deployment site. Additionally from reports and the investigation GM were in the blind when it came to knowing just where the fire was moveing to on the other sides of the box canyon.
The #1 rule Eric and Jessie failed to follow was moving without a spotter.
The original video that you are showing here, the one on the Yarnell fire has an audio level that is way too low. I turned it up, added a waves maximizer, de esser, and a little EQ. I used a dorrough meter. I saved it to a new audio/video file. I can upload it to my UA-cam channel and send you the link if your interested. Hard to listen to a UA-cam video with audio you can barely hear. .
The fire display video soundtrack mic must have been in the center of the room somewhere. The echo made it VERY difficult to hear what the presentation film female was actually saying. Need to watch a separate video for details, then watch this for comments.
I wonder if they should have left a lookout on the top, in the black, before they descended out of sight of the fire, to watch their backside. Maybe within 5 minutes he would have noticed the fire rapidly shifting and they could have made it back up. I know it was very steep though. So sad, hope the families are taken care of.
Doubtful as the fire was moving 12 mph or faster .
Personally I thank the biggest thing is the person making decisions regarding safety of the firefighters should be completely free of outside influence. No worries about budget no worries about perform or the program get canceled that way outside pressure does not influence their decision. A person's decision making can be influenced by outside sources without them even noticing it. Another thing I noticed is it seems that the incident evolved and conditions changed faster than information could be passed up the chain of command. And it left the decision makers making decisions with outdated information. I've never been on a Hotshot crew but I have worked on type 2 crew for quite a few seasons and I have personally seen information get sent to command and by the time a response is received this situation has completely changed again some new information has to be sent to command and by the time a response is received it has changed yet again fortunately it never resulted in a serious incident but during extreme weather the situation can change faster than decisions can be made. He talked about the air tanker and they have a checklist and they're going down it when they get halfway down they find out items one two and three have changed and it causes confusion I have seen it and I think that played a role here so command having accurate real-time data to base decisions on and not having to wait on observation and Report would make a huge difference not only in firefighter safety but would most likely make containment quicker and easier
Жаль парней и их семьи. Большая трагедия. Я под большим впечатлением.
My husband was with blue ridge IHC on that sad day
Having visited the tragic site it reinforces the number one Rule of bushfire is one foot in the black ? Great review and analysis of a terrible loss of life for no reason
In addition further investigation showed stubs cut past the deployment site. Meaning was this route already readied prior as there supposed to do, have a escape route already dkne!
Was Brenden The Lookout ??
Basically, the Forest Service punted on determining probable cause for this incident because they were afraid of disagreement within the reporting team. That is unconscionable. Somebody needs to teach the Forest Service how to do incident investigations. They need to go take some lessons from the NTSB. In fact, the probable cause here was serious error by Marsh and Steed that went against multiple precepts of their training. This is not to "blame" Marsh and Steed. Rather, the Forest Service should have investigated why Marsh and Steed's extensive training did not prevent them from making the serious error of descending into the canyon. The aim should be to improve future training and also put in safeguards against crew leaders making serious errors that are uncharacteristic of their training or previous performance, safeguards like better communications, GPS technology, better overall incident management, etc.
Honestly I wonder if Granite mountain felt that leadership was ineffective against the fire having seen it blow up overnight when it should not have. Being left on the ridge rather than protecting the structures or getting picked up to help save yarnell may have motivated them to take a chance they should not have.
Please any one knowledgeable : was there any other option for them to stay safe and survive ? Like stay in the black or pick another way to the ranch ? Any one ? Was there a chance they could survive ?
There was if they would have stayed in the black which was serving as a safety zone. They left it because the fire was of no immediate threat at the moment. A lot can happen in the blink of an eye on the line, winds can change with no warning. That's exactly what happened. They left their zone to move onto another assignment and when you have tinder dry medium fuels you can't outrun the front
Ghaliyah ‘s world Yeah there was another option STAY OUT OF THE WAY OF NATURE. We humans are so arrogant to think that we are going to stop something like this. We spend millions and risk lives to save what? A rebuildable house, replaceable objects? When nature decides to remodel and clean up to start anew then all we need to do is watch and stay out of the way.
Some ther black is already burned and there's no fuel left, outs a very safe tennable position. That would have been their best bet. However, as all fire fighters are, they were eager and wanted to take care of business, not sit around and watch a town burn. They were aggressive, obviously too aggressive this time. Sometimes discretion is the better part of valor. RIP 19
@@406bullrider5 they left the black because of excess smoke, due to wind change
So, no smoking gun, yet there were those who were fired over this, nitpicking at excuses and all were sacrificial lambs offered up to quell possible litigation? TO what end were these firings done? Appeasement? Paybacks? In then end, it was the crew that was responsible - as it always was and shall be on wild fires. Shit happened and it cost them their lives. THe real culprit was mother nature, which you cant fire. Its good to investigate these happenings, but sacrificial lambing is a knee jerk at best, and does absolutely nothing to ensure there will never be repeats of incidents such as Yarnell.
nwsrda1 I've heard several credible people in the wildland fire community that they were ordered to move down to the ranch because it was owned by a very influential local. Granite Mountain was funded by the city, and had issues with creating and maintaining the department. The local either directly or indirectly threatened to block funding if they didn't try to protect the ranch.
I want to emphasize that I don't know if that's what really happened, and there's no evidence for it. If I hadn't heard it from who I did then I'd dismiss it outright. I'm not sure we'll ever know 100% why they left their safe zone. I agree that most of the blame should be on the crew's leadership because they could and should have refused orders.
facetiousbadger oh wow, I SO hope whoever you heard this from is wrong, but I hate to say it wouldn’t surprise me. Such a tremendous loss.
Mary Smith like I said it's just been a rumor so take it with a huge grain of salt.
facetiousbadger What about Donut McDonough being the one that reported the argument between GM Sup and GM Capt on staying in the black do to safety reasons?
Tony Lynam He's given differing accounts, but like I said there's no evidence it's just stuff I keep hearing.
and STILL no individual transponders/gps units for EACH and EVERY hotshot ! bureaucrats too cheap to spend on their safety
Yup, and the same politicians who couldn't give two shits about our firefighters spare no expense protecting themselves and their fucking families. Fuck the interlopers put into office by the ignorant and the foolish!!!!
@ratliff2006 Fires don't spy on people, where human enemies might. Why didn't they light a fire and then enter the blackened area when they realized they were in trouble? Not enough time for it to burn down?
They didn’t have and anchor to do that, or time and adverse winds.
@@alan6832you don’t get. How fast fire is.
Also I wonder if part of this is do more with less coming from the top / outside the department. ie cost cutting. If there is pressure to cut costs and this happens, the people at the very top should get fired. But you know that will never happen
I agree they made a decision after the lookout was evacuated to make a straight run for the ranch maybe they have done this before but because of the many factors they didn't make it.
The #1 rule Eric and Jessie failed to follow was moving without a spotter.
1. Never go into a box canyon with fuel.
2. Never take your eyes off the fire.
3. Why no lookout?
WHY?
Just throwing out a few ideas that may be used as a fast escape safety strategy:
1) A support safety crew that maintains the escape zone with electric powered mountain bikes that can outrun a fire at over 20mph. Alternative would be dirt bikes. Alternative is to have the crew utilize the dirt bikes or electric mountain bikes. The mountain bikes would become a part of their tool set.
2) Alternative to a safety crew maintaining escape vehicles, a dedicated helicopter with a basket that can seat all members and get them out of the area quickly.
3) Areas where you have canyons, a zip line set up with basket, or multiple zip line wheels with disk breaking.
Acronyms mean nothing to most people, man. Don't use acronyms but use full names.
She said 12 more minutes the guys would have made it to their ranch
Yes but from the point the fire was finally seen to run over them it was 2 minutes. Shouldn't have been moving without a spotter.
I can dig it...
Ah, he explains the I-Team's investigative style ... automatic exoneration of all Yarnell parties unless there was a "criminal violation". I'd wondered how the investigation found no fault, when every single safety rule under the LCES wildfighter guidelines were broken at Yarnell. A full IHC crew doesn't get wiped out because the safety rules were followed; that happens because one or more people in positions of responsibility are not doing their jobs. We want to place the "HERO" label, and indeed there were heroes that day, but not every one of them was. It's also blasphemy to criticize heroes. But, giving everyone a free pass just because they are dead only means that more people will lose their lives. You cannot rely on officialdom to protect you. You have to get the facts and weight them yourself. Forget the movie... it's is "based" entertainment style on "real events". The movie is basically hogwash which in keeping with the movie's title uses artistic license to free all from blame. It is NOT a documentary, and if it told the real story the title would need to be changed to something like Only the Careless.
Very insightful comment; thanks for sharing them. The movie is great, well done, serves the purpose of drawing attention to the subject. I didn't know about the accident before watching it. But, as you pointed out, it does leave all that was done wrong out. Nature is the only responsible for the accident, and nobody can do anything about it. That's why I'm watching and reading lots of material about the Yarnell Fire accident. And your comment just added another dimension to my perception of things. Again, thank you for your insights.
Sad that you completely missed the point of the presentation. I assume you didn't watch the whole thing? If you had, you'd have heard him say that it all comes down to poor decisions. By dead men (Marsh +/- Steed) who paid for their mistake with their lives. What's the point of battering away at that again?
It's not about exonerating anyone. It's about actually learning. Blame doesn't progress safety. In any case, the ADOSH report had plenty of blame for everyone. No fault is how you learn, not by pointing fingers. That just makes everyone clam up.
It sounds like Eric made to the ranch and met his guys near the canyon..... if steed breaks on to air attack channel....
2014 and using quicktime
why not the locators that are used in lifeboats/life vests/avalanche location devices they are small, wearable, and can be activated as needed would they work and wouldn't they be more cost effective than a dedicated bandwidth on the radios...what color light shows up best against a firestorm ? would some kind of strobing emergency light be helpful ? In my opinion if you fight fires safety and aftercare HAVE to be part of all budgets and should have some agency that is prepared to oversee this ....this is a part that can not be defunded Ever there has to be creativity and willingness to try to secure some form of "investment strategy" that even if it sounds like a weird idea you have to be willing to try All Life matters don't short change the people you expect to save you..and it's way past time to bring our National Guardsmen Home NOW... just think how much extra manpower and the type of equipment (resources) that adds ....I really like the speaker in this , he's right education/training this is key overall and not just the teams the communities the families everyone should be informed regarding what should be expected, you just can not make good decisions when you are in the dark
Lifeboat EPIRB accuracy is 2 to 5 km, not nearly accurate enough for wildfires. Avalanche beacons that broadcast at 457 kHz doesn't tell anyone their actual location in terms of coordinates, you use a transceiver to locate them in the snow. It would be of limited use for air drops.
People talk a lot about assigning blame to individuals, or warning signs that were ignored. But I have come around to thinking that the biggest thing that Mike Dudley and others do not understand is that it is seriously sinful to send men into these wildfire danger zones without the latest technology. From the perspective of Silicon Valley (where I live), the technical support at the Yarnell fire was a joke. GPS technology has been around for over 20 years. It is ridiculous that the forest service does not place a GPS transponder on each and every hotshot fighter, so that the central command can always know exactly where each hotshot is at any moment. If our society is not willing to equip these hotshot teams with the latest technology, then we should not have these hotshot teams in the fist place. Sending these wildfire teams into the fire zone without the latest technology borders on intentional manslaughter. As Mike Dudley said, the central command (and also Blue Ridge) thought Granite Mountain was still in the safe black zone. If central command had seen Granite Mountain moving toward the box canyon, they could have warned them that the fire was approaching that canyon rapidly. So as a result, young children will grow up without their fathers because our society did not want to spend money on providing the latest technology to these firefighters. Shameful.
Robin Martin how would gps devices been completely useless? Up until the very last moments, there was confusion within IC, dispatch, and the fire retardant equipped air tankers as to where exactly the crew was.
Gps could've cleared that up. Would the outcome have been different? I don't know, but neither do you, and it's pretty clear the gps devices would be an asset in these complex fires.
Even if it's impossible for someone to see the picture every given second, you don't think there would be value in say the superintendent saying "we are attempting to go x because of x.....dispatch this is gps signature 12764....do you have eyes on an escape route?"
Total hypothetical and maybe that's not a great example, but gps is a great tool.
chris casula totally agree about them needing gps, but just regarding the air attack, I believe I read recently that it was so hot and so intense that a drop or two wouldn’t have helped much. Again it’s all theory sadly, but wasn’t that the case?
Ilya Feynberg I don’t dispute that at all, it does seem pretty likely that by the time they descended into that canyon and lost sight of the front, things were in motion. A drop or two wouldn’t have likely saved them.
I’m saying though that before they made that choice or the preceding 2 or3 choices even, it would’ve helped.
There was huge confusion about where they were as far as IC and other crews.
Everyone thought they were at the complete opposite end of the fire because of less than clear talk of being in the black.
A gps ping would’ve instantly notified IC that they were in fact elsewhere. That could’ve led to further communication and a different plan of egress.
I know it’d be impossible to track everyone all the time in a complex event. However, a crew making a totally strategic egress/position change would be an obvious time to focus in on their movements. Between the crew and IC they could’ve said “we are at these coordinates and are planning on regrouping at these other coordinates heading a on a such and such bearing via the obvious ridgetop to the such and such side of the fire...dispatch do you copy, please advise”.
I just pulled that out of my ass, but effective communication and gps locating would’ve been an asset and would be an asset in any complex fire like this.
Yes, I understand what you mean and I completely agree. It's the series of dominos that had to all line up before they could fall, and it never should have come to that point to start with. I agree completely. I think that our firefighters are well under equipped overall and across the nation, and not just wildland firefighters but seems to be especially them. It's almost as if they're seen as a "side hustle" or something which is of course total nonsense.
I only say that because funding and attention is what seem to be preventing lots of incredible technology and new life saving devices that are already there and developed or on the verge of being developed and just need that little extra funding push to make it into the hands of these incredible men and women. Fire shelters being one of them and despite the success of the current issue fire shelters throughout the year they have too many limits and depend on way too many "just right" factors for survival. I have to find the link to the video but there's a video you by NASA where after the Yarnell tragedy they reached out to the forest service to help develop new materials for fire shelters that they already have developed that are lightyears beyond the aluminum foil shelters in use today. Ones that are meant to protect very sensitive tech reentering the earth's atmosphere at 3,000 F. Nasa has already said that the materials aren't a problem they're already there, and that they know how to keep the heat down to a survivable temp within the shelter and the air breathable for long enough for most really intense fires to pass over, only challenge now is making it small and light enough to fit into a pack and they just need the resources push. Nasa is already strained for funding and last I checked there do not seem to be any plans to move this along.
Chris and Ilya, I agree that GPS enabling a life-saving air drop in this case was a long shot. It might have worked, but only maybe. The real value of GPS would have been that someone's eyes at central command could have seen that Granite Mountain was about to do something very dangerous. In particular, if central command had heard from Blue Ridge that they rescued Granite Mountain's lookout moments before his death, they might have deduced that Granite Mountain needed to make one of the other three choices (Dudley's explanation) rather than the deadly fourth choice of descending into the box canyon.
If we cannot equip hotshot crews with individual GPS, then we should not have hotshot crews in the first place. In this day and age, it is wrong to have one without the other.
Yes I remember that in florida
Since the lookout needed to be moved, that should have automatically triggered them staying in the black area.
100% Correct! They failed to replace their lookout and violated a basic rule of firefighting. Never move with an eye on the fire.
While everyone else argues over GPS monitors, can I suggest giving at least one member of each Hot Shot crew a balloon kit that can be launched at least 100 meters in the air for pilots to locate crews quickly? I feel,from a pilots perspective, this would be the most effective and fast way to locate and save a crew's life.
With the winds from the winter and the fire, it wouldn't last
Why were they out their. it made no difference to the conditions so why throw lives away
They were assigned to control it before it reached the town
He mentions “Young Men and Fire “ great read. Similar situation men not communicating.
I have never read anything quite like that book. Well worth it.
All wildland crews should carry a handheld DJI mavic Drone!!!!!!!!!!!!
For recon? How long does the battery last? A drone can’t fly in wind as strong as what was present that day.
@@babybrat2958 maybe the mavic is small for the application, but most drones that fly 1 hour or more have no trouble in wind due to battery weight and prop size.
I just read some of the comments. I can tell most of the people have not been on the fire line themselves. It’s not what you think. It’s easy to be an “armchair quarterback, but not the real thing. They did what they thought they should. Yes, they could’ve sat in the black, but firefighters have a hard time sitting still, and that’s why they get things done. No one is to blame. Men just don’t move as fast as nature, no matter how much technology is available. I am still heartbroken though.
They need GPS
😢
As a Hotshot crewman in 1979, I wish I could hear this lady‘s explanation better. It’s very hard to hear, especially for this 63-year-old man.
ua-cam.com/video/vkEL6WiEt1k/v-deo.html
Here is the link to that overlay video in the beginning
TriColorMonk - thank you Monk I truly appreciate this! You a Shot too?
Chris Anderson Sr No sir, a jolly volly from the east coast. Love the Western landscapes with such high respect for you guys. Ain’t a structure guy out there who will say otherwise!
TriColorMonk - I must say though that I have equal respect for those who fight structure fires and answer emergency calls every day. Their fire engines are much prettier than ours are too!
Turn your volume up old man
The comment: "What do we need to modify training?" Well, a really simple thig to add is a few practice classroom training maps with the following information:
This is a work sheet with map and 10 scenario variations. You are the IC, and your crew is dealing with the following circumstances:
The following information would already be placed on a map for classroom and/or homework:
1) A topographical map of an actual fire outlined in its earliest stages.
2) A point on the map where the safety spot is to be located.
3) A point on the map where 19 crew members are located, they are together at a lunch spot.
4) A known weather condition: Wind blowing the fire head toward the safety spot at a wind speed of 40mph.
5) The lunch spot and the safety zone are a distance apart (as was the case with the Yarnell tragedy).
Question to answer:
1) How long will it take for the fire head to reach the safety spot?
2) How long will it take for the 19 Hotshots to reach the safety spot?
3) If you discover that the fire head will reach the safety spot in less time than it takes for the Hotshots to reach the safety spot, what should you do?
So sad, so money was put ahead of safety of people ? When they could put the fire down with the air tanker and he refused? This should be a standard procedure before sending people. Kill the fire right at the start- this is all I learnt from al the tragedies that happened in forest fires.
No experienced expert in these firefighting situations could have expected the change in the fire's actions. Normally the fire would have taken over an hour to move from where the Granite Mtn Hotshots last saw its location in the black to the canyon that cut them off from the safety Ranch. The fire change its behaviour radically racing at 50 mph to cover the distance in less than fifteen minutes rather than more than an hour they expected. The analysis of the weather that day shows how unique this circumstance was with both a cyclone and anticyclone which drove the fire front at 40mph to their relocating position cutting them off and killing these heroes.
These HEROES tried to move from the black to their Safety Ranch and Got caught by the racing flame front.1) A new Watchout should be created to ALWAYS keep Eyes on the Fire and Stay on the Ridge if at all Possible instead of losing Sight of the fire in Canyons or draws. 2)Also they should be equipped with real shelters stainless sheets with aluminum cloth keeping them together and Sheep wool insulation inside. 3)NEXT they should have O2 canisters to breath. The Fire stole their oxygen. 4)NEXT they should have a couple of Steel cable kites to locate themselves to aircraft. 5)NEXT Hotshots should have access to aircraft channel and aircraft should have to monitor it and air channels. This is NOT a Climate change issue it IS a 50 Year Buildup of Unburnt Fuel Issue. All Hotshot Crews MUST utilize Quads and or Raptors to carry crew; increase Ingress egress from Sites; Carry extra equipment radios GPS O2 Cans; Walkie Talkies; Equipment on Raptors to Clear and Cut trail quicker; Reduce crew and exposure to injury and Death to possibly 12 from 20 crew members due to faster positioning and Equipment on Raptor to speed cutting line ..
Don’t follow simple instructions
It should have put it out the first night
"We didn't want a minority report". Just like in the movie "Minority Report", it must be destroyed! So the sanitized version is all we'll hear. Congratulations. If preventing fatalities is the highest priority, minority reports should be welcomed because they help to color the picture. There is no report that gets it right, and discussion and different perspectives help us to draw out the lessons that we can apply to our own specific situations.
Bingo! The Forest Service needs to take a few lessons from the NTSB. Any proper analysis includes probable cause.
I think GPS would have been a good idea. They would have survived if they had a cheap GPS on them. Of course they shouldn't have ever walked into needless danger as they did. But humans will keep making really dangerous mistakes as humans will remain human. So yeah, give them a cheap GPS for when they make those extremely irresponsible decisions, as they will make them at some point. That cannot be avoided. Such a blue collar crew is better at doing vs. sitting down and calculating minor details.
Which is why I think it's a bit silly to completely dismiss the GPS idea with "they just need to stop making mistakes, simple".
Water never came! 😠
@ratliff2006 u gay?
@@somersfamily are u?
As a German only now I by chance stumbled onto this tragedy. There are biological factors I miss in the entire discussion.
The constant inhalation of highly toxic fumes, Carbon monoxide -that can block respiration for up to 10 days after exposure
Fatigue, no regeneration - was there alcohol, drugs involved - was there existential anxiety about Money, job loss, reputation, was there any fear of Leadership - superiros... all factors vastly creating stress and decision fatigue. And the hero attitude: we cannot fail, we are the best,t, superior, we can handle anything... Those are responsibilities of GOOD leadership - to know what you are doing - and you better do not do. What startles me, in Germany the most: what effect did all that dangerous work have on the spread of the fire? Seems to me around zero. A sacrifice of expendables. To accomplish - what...
I am sure GPS is at a point today that it was not a year ago, every smart phone has very accurate GPS. that's how simple programs like UBER work. an excuse about cost and or band width in todays world is simply a cop out.
They needed transponders for real time surveillance. Someone could've seen them in real time and send a water drop.
The crew couldn't clearly see the fire and how fast it was moving when the fire "blew up". That was the critical mistake when they moved down in the box canyon. 15-20 minutes earlier or later and the GM Crew would be fine. I fought range fires myself for 4 fire seasons and fires can be very unpredictable. Don't lose track of the fire and how fast it is moving. That box canyon with high really dry fuels coupled with the high winds was a death sentence. Going into the box canyon in that circumstance was just a bad decision just like Captain Smith not stopping for the night in an icefield when the Titanic hit the iceberg. 99 times out of a hundred they are ok in both instances but this time both Granite Mountain and the Titanic got bit on it! To bad GM couldn't have used water from the Water from the Atlantic Ocean on the front of the fire! Fire is very unpredictable, I learned that in 4 fire seasons. High winds + very dry fuel + high temperatures and you can get lit up!!!! To bad, my heart really goes out to the families and especially the crew members were killed!
"Good, solid black" means that it has already been burned and so cannot burn again? Also, If there is too much fuel anyway, so that the fire is useful, why bother fighting fires off road at all? Why not assign everyone to structure protection and let offroad areas burn?
"Good, solid black" means that it has already been burned and so cannot burn again? "
Right. It means the plants have been burned already, so there is no more fuel for the fire. You can't burn a shrub twice.
"Also, If there is too much fuel anyway, so that the fire is useful, why bother fighting fires off road at all? Why not assign everyone to structure protection and let offroad areas burn?"
The town of Prescott and Yarnell were in immediate danger if the fire were to take off, so they needed to get a handle on it before it reached those towns. If they waited until the fire front was at the structures before fighting it, then they would be overwhelmed very fast and they stood no chance saving those structures. They needed to contain the fire as much as possible and they had a chance until that outflow boundary hit. At that point, the fire exploded out of control and the Hotshots got overrun.
@@JacobHernandez Your sure that if the hotshots, and everyone else, had spent the entire time clearing brush away from the structures at the edge of town instead of hiking out into the forest, that they still could not have saved the town?
The smoke clouds were pounding that area....
Silly to have gone into that with a ground crew You stand no chance
Ground crews are the only thing that can effectively put a fire out. You can't just blunder into an incident with 90 pieces of air support
@@406bullrider5 The #1 rule Eric and Jessie failed to follow was moving without a spotter.
I hate to say "follow the money" but, after watching this, that's what I believe happened. Marsh had recently written a letter to the bean counters to justify the need to maintain and even expand the hotshots. Sit in the black or engage?
Your comment doesn't even deserve a reply.
Exactly.... 90% of gov let's things get bad, before reacting.... gotta justify the funds
The whole day was a mess
It's so easy to say what should have could have .The fact is those young men were there to do a job. You can break it down look at it inside and out but unless your there facing what they faced you will never know. That has gone with them..They were heroes!!And now guardian ANGELS!!
Now we know Marsh made it to the Ranch. Steed called Marsh and were not going to make it. Marsh replied I know I'm sorry. Somehow Marsh made it back to die with his crew.
How do we know that? I don't think anyone will ever know , but I don't think he made it. There would have been no time for him to go a mile away to run a mile back to die?
@@somersfamily that's been checked and verified. It's noted in the book Megafire by Michael Kodas. Page 305.
@@somersfamily It was 600 yards back to his crew. What would he have if he survived . His crew burned alive which was his fault. This is the conversation Donut heard and told the Chief...Darrell Willis. He has never spoken of it again.
@@somersfamily It's just .34 tenths of a mile. He probably just made it. Which is probably why he was found not in his shelter.
Thats what I was thinking....
You are missing the Point. Why did the crew Boss decide to leave the Safety Zone. Jim McKay
So let me get this straight. If the V lat flew like originally planned. This would have been over the first night. So let’s spend millions instead of thousands. Makes sense. Government
Firing people is so fucking wrong these mem were in the black they left there safety zone for reasons unknown ive never heard of firing commanders after an incident like this.. people make mistakes and we learn from them but firing people for these kinds of accidents is wrong, mother nature is ultimately the IC she makes the calls and decided if she wants you to put the fire out or not.
Did they leave or were they ordered by Mash, there is new talk that Mash and Steed were in conversation about Steed leaving the black and coming down to the ranch there is strong suggestion that Mash was already down at the ranch, that Steed was well reluctant to leave the black till Mash ordered him down to the ranch, there is evidence that a camera was returned to a relative without going through evidence protocol that Marsh's phone was returned to the widow in the same way, these were vital pieces of evidence why were they not treated as such, something indeed stinks
Eric left the black without a spotter. He violated standard code.
The absolutely critical discussion about decision-making on going out of the black into what would be the death zone begins at 56:15. Anybody who wants to understand crisis leadership decision making, start there. Entire video is valuable though.
Darrell Willis was one of those individuals who said granite bay hotshots were moving to save the buildings at the ranch. Well .. he needs to listen to this. The hotshots were pure wildland firefighters and not cross trained in structure fire fighting. Secondly .. the ranch was a good safety zone, well cleared with adequate clearance around the buildings. Why would the hotshots feel the need to save the ranch? Willis was over his head and without correct information he should not have given that site press conference shortly after the fire.
Ive listened to this several times. The bureaucracies involved in the numerous fire fighting agencies is incredible .. but .. not surprising given the nature of governments. Governments intentionally create convoluted organizations so that jobs can be created and if things go south no accountability and blame can be attributed to any one person.
I firmly believe all crews should have at least 1 woman on the crew ... why? because few women will ever think they can use physical strength to overcome poor judgement. They bring an important perspective of caution that sometimes can be lost in more ego driven decision making.
Yeah because having an emotional female sobbing in the middle of your escape route is always a good idea...
The problem is that fearful and weak people are seldom people who speak up when push comes to shove. Try to watch Chernobyl by HBO. Notice how the workers who knew exactly how extremely dangerous it was to play around with a nuclear power plant just followed orders because they were afraid of the higher ups. When you are fearful, but people around you just want to solve problems fast, then you may just find it easier to just go along for now until the day you quit your job or get stress. You are extremely attuned to spot danger so of course you spot the fact that your boss is angry at you.
And if speaking up is okay then these problems wouldn't happen at all. Some of those firefighters for sure understood how extremely dangerous and stupid it was to go into a huge fire hazard like that. They had the option to speak up and warn the group to make sure they didn't walk into a death trap. For some reason that did not happen effectively. They for sure did see it though and they fore sure would have had a timid and careful person amongst them who could spot such death traps. I for one would plain and simply refuse to follow a command like that. But could I convince the other 18 people to stay back? Most likely not. Not unless I was the leader of the group. So I wouldn't be able to save anyone and neither would a timid small woman who can't lift her own weight. And if the fire didn't kill them the boss would fire me at the end of the day. Then I suddenly wouldn't be amongst them anymore and they would call me a coward.
that makes sense lol
@@406bullrider5
This emotional female spent 25 years snatching you boys out of your own way so you could make bad calls another day. 😂
We may never know all the details that lead to the critical decision to enter the box canyon. If anyone knows, they’re not saying. The group is very insular. Hopefully it won’t happen again.
I gave the data Dec 2022 and I hope the F B I processes the information properly.
Walked into a firey death because they were afraid of what people would think of them if they didn't. Shamed into doing that by idiots who weren't even there to see the full situation. Tragic indeed.
That's exactly the bottom line on this tragedy.
It's easy they were killed because they were the first municipal hotshot crew they were going to start up crews like this all over it would have taken hold stamping out the need for federal hotshots it's all about the money.
Your comment doesn't even deserve a reply.
Yup
Why blame anyone sounds like a freak accident
Ratliff2006 listen here you low life piece of shit Eric Marsh’s shit is more of a man then you’ll ever be. Quit trying to put what happened on him were you there? Did you hear the discussion witch lead up to descions? No didn’t thank so. You couldn’t do a quarter of the work those men did your to much of a coward fuck you punk
@@dakotaturner2307 if I was you I would seriously think about anger management!
The #1 rule Eric and Jessie failed to follow was moving without a spotter.