Where can I find a reliable trusted Betting site to bet on UFC and DotA 2 that has either no limit max bets or at least 100K AND No maximum winnings and no maximum deposit ... I correctly predicted Ronda rousey streak and losses to holly holm and amanda nunes
There are a few factors in sports picks. One plan I found that successfully combines these is the Simple Sports Goldmine (check it out on google) definately the most incredible system that I have ever heard of.Check out the interesting information .
This is why we all need to be using an exchange! In football the odds lose their efficiency after kick off, some prices will be terrible value while others will be amazing. It is your job to exploit these inefficiencies by using pre match and in play information. Form a plan of action and stick to it, stake no more than 3% of your bank on any one trade and use this 3% wisely. In other words the 3% is your maximum risk so stake according to risk.
When you thoroughly understand "value betting" combined with the "law of large numbers" then all you need is patience and discipline and the rest is history.
Thanks for sharing. I've had a few losses this year and when I think back I was betting on my opinion on how I perceive the event (I.e the player/team) rather than the odds value. It's made me re evaluate how I look at match betting now. Hopefully will help me raise profit + ROI.
Its 50/50 with those odds and its 50/50 with going with your own believe. I say that because when I go with the odds, I win probably 50 percent of the time and when I go against the odds I win about 50 percent of the time. Even if you win 9 out of 10 bets, it all seems to even out. I guess the best strategy is to win a little, chill, then start again
Bro… why 😂😭.. “I’ve had a few losses this year”… This video just explained to us, in detail, that It’s a rough 50/50 win:loss ratio for everyone. Then you pop up “oh I’ve lost a few times this whole year thanks for the advice” on some obvious bullshit! Wtf? 😂 that is quite impressive I guess? What are you event looking for lol? WOW BRO ONLY A FEW LOSSES?! You’RE A KING! COOLEST DUDE ALIVE! HES SO AWESOME THAT HE ONLY LOST A FEW BETS ALL YEAR’!!!
I understood the concept of expected value being greater than the implied probability from the odds, in order to make an expected profit. But this still doesn't change the fact that the probability that a bet with 4 odds has approximately 25% of winning, which is quite low
My selection has a 0.0001% chance of winning. I’ll become a millionaire one day. Hmmm 🤔 that day may be a lot later than my house repossession, bailiff notice, divorce court order etc.
@@CaanBerryProTrader Surely that would depend on how bad my profitability is. FYI I'm being very tongue in cheek with my comment as I am a profitable layer/trader. I specialize in greyhounds but can dabble in most sport for profit.
The teams/players/horses do matter, since you need a baseline percentage to workout what a value bet looks like. Ofc it matters a lot less if your just trading positions, since your just looking for changes in the market.
It is all about value and it amazes me that people bet more the shorter the odds are rather than the more value they get. I had £900 on a 100-1 horse before because it was huge value but I rarely ever bet that big on 2-1 shots.
@@CaanBerryProTrader possibly on the surface the big priced events have little chance on the surface but with some more digging they have a much better chance
Themaggsy1 no your not long odds horses or teams win a lot more often than people actually believe, you risk little to win big when the big odds eventually come In
This applies to games like roulette because the odds are absolutely mathematically fixed. It’s not the same for horse racing as you cannot truly gauge what the true mathematical probability of winning is. You can have the wisdom of the crowd but that’s not the same as absolute mathematical truth as in roulette. The underlying fundamentals are obviously correct however.
I trade the Financial markets. My win loss ration is approx 50%. BUT.................and this is the way I've been consistently profitable ( my winners are 3-4 times bigger than my losses. Caan.......You speak such sense PROBABILITIES are what Our focus should be on. There are No guarantees in trading or betting................but boy, can we put the odds in Our favour, if we know what to look for. I used to trade on emotion, with no focus, no plan - shooting from the the hip. No surprise, I lost alot of £££££££. Do your homework people, and focus on edge. Those who don't know what edge is...........YOU DON'T HAVE ONE!!!
Funny how you didn't tell anyone how to find value in the end. For that people need to sign up to your courses. Which is probably how you make actual money.
in fact he did. You must to look at the exchanges odds closest to the start of the event. than you must to search for odds that are bigger on the other bookmakers. the bigger the gap between the odds the bigger the value and the bigger you must to stake. But it's really hard to find those value bets without a software. and then you must to pay for online bookies who can find these value bets alone. Or you can go for surebets too. In the end I think it's really hard work for a little outcome and If you go big you will get restricted. Think of another way to make real money. The only way to make money online betting and make millions is by courtside betting. But also to do that it s a bit hard and you need not to get caught as it is more restricted. If you wanna know more about it go here ua-cam.com/video/kvT_yIVI2Qw/v-deo.html
Even then he can't tell you because nobody knows what the bfsp will be, you can anticipate moves some of the time but that's it. If anyone tells you different then they're lying
If you think that, you'll never find it. But even now in 2020 it still happens daily, and no, I'm not lying. I'm not just going to put that bit on UA-cam, because, why would I?
Hello Mr Caan Berry. We don't need to speak too much grammar when we can quickly bring out example to buttress our point. Here are boxing bouts for 31/10/2020; make your picks and let's work out the outcome on 01/11/2020 here. Thanks!!! 1. Lamont Roach 1.08 Neil John Tabanao 9.8. 2. Marlen Esparza 2.41 Sulem Urbina 1.67 3. Bektemir Melikuzier 1.05 Alan Campa 12.0 4. Elwin Soto 1.06 Carlos Buitrago 9.5 5. Jamie Munguia 1.26 Tureano Johnson 4.18.
Hello Caan! Thanks for posting this video! I have a question. If i know the true odds, how do you increase the odds to gain value? Some odds posted are greater or lower than all 3 true odds calculated by me. We must calculate the true odds of all bookies to make comparison with?
Opening lines do take into account public perception not always true implied probability and line movement isn't always indicative of money in/out. Weather could change, a player could be out, other things can move the line and change the true probability . Then you need to find a book that is offering you lines that are better than open and hope they keep your account open, not many books do that and most wont for long. There is a strategy opposite to this most swear by called steam chasing. Everyone has a 100% winning strategy, it's just not the case.
It is very hard to find someone on UA-cam who makes sense.Everyone has strategies...they simply don t work.There are only 2 sure ways of making money from betting: matched betting and arbitrage.That is math.The other ones are all relying on probabilities thus include risks.Yes,we know,long term...blah blah blah.Mathematically.In the practical world,the punter who just had a losing streak of n bets,can t abstain himself and puts his money on the first bet he finds.That is tilting.Strategies are extremely dangerous just because they depend on variance A LOT.Everything is good when u hit 2 3 in a row...but what happens when u lose in a row? That s why Martingale,Fibonacci,Labouchere,D Alembert,Paroli don t really work in real life .Of course,theoretically,it must hit Red sometimes,right?After 99 blacks.But do u still have money left in the bank? Not really.Every single idiot who posted on UA-cam about betting is talking nonsense.They all think theirs is the one.Lay the draw,lay the draw with insurance,bad each way races,always back the favourite away...etc.They simply don t work for the normal punter.Only if u have bots to find the real value .
What about surebets (arbitrage betting)? Is Betnetto surebets good platform? I overheard some guy at the restaurant talking about how he earn 2k monthly by playing surebets. Can this be real?
Arbitrage bettors will be limited by bookies within about a week and there’s little profit to be made from then on. You can make a few quid at the beginning but It’s not sustainable. The only way to make long term profits is to bet with exchanges such as Betfair and have a proven winning strategy.
I like the contest section on a particular site. Always loved squares. It's just a big game of chance. Also getting to bet on the ufc is pretty fun. I just bet very little with low probability. I bet a ko or tko in the last fight that was +1000 and won. Only bet $15 so it was $150. I just didn't believe the hype of O'Malley.
I think when you combine value with knowledge of teams, you have a dream scenario. Teams do matter because they are human being with emotions and tendencies. American sports especially, teams get streaky (hot and cold). Also, sometimes, good teams getting embarrassed last time out, 3 games in 4 nights, etc can all impact a teams value that night. I find with basketball and hockey, I find tremendous value in the live betting market (alternative betting), where ill get odds of something happened at 40% but its above that. Than if the line moves enough in my favor, ill either let it ride or sometimes try and hit the middle. very hard to do with soccer but a sound strategy for Most American sports.
I have no idea? Maybe they are all bookies, or work for bookies, or have lost a heap of cash and feel the need to drag others down in the process? It's a pretty helpful video for anyone interested in the mechanics of strategy. Have a goodun :)
Guess, you have lost a lot from gambling. otherwise why wouldnt you control yourself from gambling and hop on to this video. He is not the one who you mentioned in the comment, you are doing it to yourself.
Hi Caan, solid content like usual. Do you have any suggestions on which bookmakers allow for really fast live bet placement? I've been using a few bookmakers that take up to 11 seconds just to process a live bet which is ridiculous and a lot of value is lost when I miss good prices. If you could even point me in the right direction that would be great!
Of course I do. I just don't do it all for free :) ....why would I? Same as the rest of the world! Regarding bookies fast bet placement? They put the delays in for a reason, you won't find a faster one. Bit of a stupid question when you think about it.
@@CaanBerryProTrader Isn't that the whole point of your channel to help people become better traders? I didn't know if was used for self-promotion only which goes against the image that I believe you have presented to date - of wanting to help other traders develop. If it is for self-promotion only, then that makes me question why you're looking for additional sources of income and suggests you're not making enough from trading. And since there is considerable difference between in play time delays from bookmaker to bookmaker as well as sport to sport, I don't think it's a stupid question at all, and if anything, it shows a level of thinking and consideration that is at least higher than your average punter at the bar.
"Isn't that the whole point of your channel to help people become better traders?" Yes, but everything has a price right? If you get a plumber to switch out your boiler he's helping you, but does paying him make it disingenuous? No. "I didn't know if was used for self-promotion only" Are you serious? Sticking the word 'only' in there makes it quite twisted, and shows you probably have some alternate agenda here. Probably why the account looks anonymous. Anyway, why would anyone bother making UA-cam videos if there was zero benefits in doing so? It costs them time. The whole of UA-cam is pretty much self-promoting. "If it is for self-promotion only, then that makes me question why you're looking for additional sources of income" Question it all you want. I'm not bothered, I've proved it many times over. I wonder if you would question using Virgin Atlantic because Richard Branson had already made enough money with Virgin Megastores. Flawed logic, many successful people have multiple streams of income, it just makes sense to. The delayed placement one is pretty daft, as if any bookie is going to give you a super-fast delay increasing your chances of beating them.
@@CaanBerryProTrader Seemed like OP was asking a genuine question and made some good points in his other message. Not sure why your immediate response was to insult and get defensive.
The margin I mention in the video that is applied by a bookie makes it bad value. You should know, when you cash-out with them they apply this margin again... so double-screwed yes. You would need to be taking huge value in order to back with a bookie and cash out with them and still be in the green.
his reply makes sense but some bookies dont screw over second time i think, and when you wonder if you should cash out, my tip is look at your own bank do you need that money, think about your overall luck factor dont know if you get this, and try to find feeling can it go wrong, ask yourself if losing team is really doing worse if score dont makes sense i suggest cash out.
Not sure where to post this. Been watching your videos & betting on Betfair exchange on a laptop without any software as yet, although have looked at Geeks Toy but not very computer literate. Also have the book but halfway through it. Right have laid a horse on Betfair & then backed it with a smaller amount to cover the bet which meant whichever horse won I was making a profit of about 10-15% of my original stake. The cash sign also comes up with the offer of a cash out !! do I take that as well or ignore it ?
to cash out with BT spread profit across the entire market. if you are backing for £2 and laying for £2 then you would only see the profit on the selection that you placed the bits because it is not hedged aka cashed out.
Got a question caan. Do you think that racing betting will remain the same after this pandemic. Eg. Do you think the bookies will all survive and if they do will things be the same as before with regards to concessions and prices?
I still dont get how you find value. Is it just looking at the favorite? and determining if the bookies odds are higher? Because if its any horse than you need to factor in the odds of it winning and it sounds like you're saying to just get that from seeing what punters are betting on exchanges. If its a horse that is 6 places away from the favorite in terms of odds and the bookies have higher odds than its value. Even though its not likely to win are you saying thats still value and it should be bet on?
Caan I know you're advocating taking value here, which is of course, the only way to make long-term profit. I agree with all that, but you're saying the best way to ascertain the relative 'value' or true odds of an event occurring is to look at the exchanges near the off, again true, this is when the exchange is most accurate as the odds are ultimately dictated by supply and demand and the money changing hands, and the wisdom in numbers means this is the truest price, the problem is how can you then find value elsewhere? If you found a bookie offering a higher price than the exchange near the off, I'd like you to let me know which bookie that is? Because all you'll get at that stage is liveshows. And if you consistently do manage BEFORE the liveshows to get higher prices with bookies, you know what will happen, as you've shown on other videos. You'll just get banned. So how can this actually be applied? If you're talking about finding value actually on the exchanges, how, as the price changes so does the relative implied probability? It's kind of like reverse logic. You're using the current trading price to give you the 'true odds' but you can't beat the current trading price? If the price goes out, then now the new price is the current trading price, so now that is the 'true odds', you see what I'm saying with this? Where do you get the value from?
Hey! Not seen a comment from you for a while. Hope you're well... in answer: 1. how can you then find value elsewhere? Think I understand what you're asking but; there is not such value in every instance. Anticipation of movement is the key because you have an opportunity to exploit the price for a limited time. 2. I'd like you to let me know which bookie that is? Unfortunately, it changes by the day, hour, minute... they all do at one point or another. None are super-efficient. 3. So how can this actually be applied? Yep, you'll get banned for winning. That's bookies business model. In the short term you can certainly apply and take value though, its just not going to be a golden goose forever. 4. how, as the price changes so does the relative implied probability? Remeber it's not an eternal sliding scale, we're talking about the last minute to post in most cases when the market is most fluid and accurate. 5. You can't beat the current trading price? You can. And while I'd love to discuss and share this with you as I know you're a long-term follower with some great insight, I'm just not going to put that part on UA-cam at this stage :) ...but you can.
@@CaanBerryProTrader Okay thanks Caan. And I am actually a subscriber to your video pack. I'm going to go through it all again during this lockdown period. See if I can get even more out of it if I go through it methodically. Cheers for the reply
Great video! The tip with the true odds of the betting exchange was especially eye opening. I’ve got a question related to that, wouldn’t you have to consider commission into these true odds too? As in, the odds of the betting exchanges are the closest to being true odds after subtracting the commission?
Caan Berry Pro Trader I was referring to what you said around 2:35. I was wondering if let’s say the odds for o2.5 goals is 2.0 at betfair, are these even odds already the true odds? If you just want to assess the true odds of a particular event, nothing else? Or would you further have to subtract the 5% commission to calculate the truest odds in a way, as I presumed traders would factor that in on top of the true odds in order to compensate the loss of the 5%? To stick with the example of the o2.5 at even odds, if you wager 10 pounds you would receive 19 pounds if successful after commission. Would hence be 1.9 the closest to the true odds of o2.5 goals or already the odds at 2.0?
I used to work out the over round in the betting shops before a race to gauge value. You have to take into account with horses people will back favourite names, jockeys which distort the pricing. All a bookie wants is his little bit of the pie.
@@CaanBerryProTrader People have a go at the Coates's, at least they had the foresight to see where betting was going and started Bet365 Online. In over 200 countries betting on horses, poker, bingo, etc. There's always winners and losers. What gets me is when they pay millions for football players?, The likes of Moore, Pele, Best all missed the good times.
Hi Leo, no unfortunately not. In-play the same applies, although the bookmakers typically make their margin bigger because of the volatility of price movement (because there are less bets struck etc). So their margin is bigger, meaning the price is worse, even poorer value. In-play betting on things like football and cash-out is a truly hideous proposal. Sorry if that wasn't the answer you were looking for mate!
Hi Caan , thanks for reply. I no cash out is terrible , I’m talking say Man City to win before game is 1.2 then after 30 mins they are 1.4 that is value no ??
@@leonolan3939 i use that sort of "backing losing favourites" type strategy all the time and it is definitely profitable but of course you need to use an exchange to get the most out of it not a bookmakers
firstly thanks for taking the time to share the video. You are right, price dictates everything, if something is bigger than you think it should be, look into backing it. Question, if something is 3-1, it should win 25% of the time, is that 3-1 on the video with bookmaker over-round factored in however? Also it looks like from the video, the majority of your trading is done on Betfair, have you factored in commission payments? Thanks
On the toss of the coin the bookies won’t give you evens on heads or tails, they’ll give you 9/10 (or possibly 4/5) on both. A mark-up of 10-20%. As you say it isn’t rocket science.
You're entirely right. Many people don't even think about it though. The inclination is to just automatically believe the mainstream media and have a punt picking the winner. Thanks.
Very very helpful video mate But whats the benefit of it when youll get banned eventually for taking big odds? Is exchange markets same as sportsbook will banned you ?
You'll get banned if you win. Its just how it is, the law allows them to behave like this. Exchange markets don't ban as you are betting against other users.
Your a professional on your horses. Myself sports. Yes close to the start of event you lay down. In terms of getting value all the betting places have similar prices anyway. Line betting is the only way to be profitable. Yes they take 9% always the line is 1.91. dont the be taking short lines. I firmly believe in keeping the same stake. If your picking 2/3 winners your profitable. 8/10 your profitable. 1/2 loose small amounts. Sometimes you can loose 4-5 times in a row but purple patches of 10-15 winners in a row happens more. Media always pumps the wrong tyres up. Do your own research.
True, so long as all those winners you pick are a higher price than the average odds they represent. Price is the important thing, could pick 3 winners out of 10... but if you were getting (9.0) 8/1 on each winner, you'd be far in the lead.
whats your profit last 5 years? easy tell yourself just got to hit winners even they pay out 1.91, results dont lie, i doubt your winning on the long run and i dont mean your last 20 bets or whatever where you hit your patch, fact bookmaker not blocked you yet mean your not considered a winner
Good video, what website are there to use after most accounts are restricted? What's good high limit bookies are there other than pinnacle and betfair?
Thanks Caan, finally the truth about betting, no one will believe you though as most think the colour of the jockey's under trollies are a good indicator and add value. I discovered the maths a few years back and just went on a value betting spree and was eventually gubbed to death. Great fun. Nowadays I use value as a basis for my tipping site as that makes a lot more money and is zero hassle. If my subscribers knew I never ever watch a horse race or look at the form they would have several fits but as you say you could be betting on three legged donkeys and make money if the price is right. I automated the tipping using the BF API and am actually looking for some co-operation on a new project for auto arbing/value betting. Let me know if you would be interested or know someone who is.
Cheers, Stephen. You're correct of course, its sad that so many think like that (and listen to the medias narative, paid for by bookies). Inevitably doing this you will get restricted as people have seen in other videos.. fair few quid in it though.
@@CaanBerryProTrader I've won £10000 this month doing trebles and singles etc but I've hit a stopping point and can't get past 10k.. Keep going from 8k too 9k back and forth.. Any suggestions?
I great strategy i have found to make steady profit is playing for a cash out. Maybe not the best for long term, however i will do a football acca on say 6 games to not finish 0-0. Now 0-0 isn't a common score in football but it can happen, but the likelyhood is, 4 or 5 of those games are going to have a scorer. At that point you cash out. Its rare that i lose on this and even though im not making mega profit its adding up. A few £30-£150 wins every day or 2 goes a long way. And the more you have you more you can essentially put on for larger profit margins.
It's all nice and tidy with the figures, but real life is not figures. Probability does not work in horse races, football or any other sport. It only works in the Casino and they have their safety margin already. So call me naive, but there is no betting strategy that is not based on luck. Bayern usually wins with high goal difference against poor opposition at home? You found the best odds because of your famous calculation? BAM, 3:3 against Bielefeld.
Fact is, no one knows the true price. Not even the bookmakers. Anyone who believes they do is fooling themselves and will empty their bank account pretty quickly. Yes the bookmakers will have a reasonably close approximation of the odds for any particular event to begin with, but the way they make their profit is to use complex algorithms to adjust those odds depending upon how much money is wagered for or against a particular outcome so that they guarantee a profit no matter the actual outcome. So the reality is, the closer to the event start that you wait to make your bet, by that time the bookies have already adjusted their odds to ensure they make a profit.
@@CaanBerryProTrader I stick by what I say. Nobody can be certain of the true odds on a consistent basis. And for this to be workable, you have to be able to do this consistently, otherwise it's just gambling.
Hey Caan, in your opinion, what would you say is the number 1 horse 'Trading' strategy 'That Works' pre or post-off..scalping, front runners, b2l'ing steamers, or another? &what racing market would best suits the strategy
If you forced me to choose one, trading short-term based on support and resistance... an overlap with scalping there for sure although not entirely scalping alone.
Possibly not the only one. What is it you didn't understand? In order to win betting, you must bet at a bigger price than the implied chance of the event happening. Over the long term, by doing this, you will win, its a mathmatical fact. This is the point we are trying to get over whist explaining a few other things.... its got jack all to do with the right team etc.
@@CaanBerryProTrader still don't understand when you say 'price' you say 'odd'? when you say 'event from happening' you say 'tsunami or hurricane?' i'm lost
It doesn't make any mathematical sense. The whole concept of "value" in sports betting is flawed. The so-called experts try to con us by giving examples of tossing a coin but sports betting has nothing in common with flipping a coin. And good luck to anyone who wants to work out whether odds offered are higher than the true probability of a sporting outcome - in most cases it's impossible.
Very new to your videos but I’ve been on BF 15 years and your Thesis is sound. At the end of the video what is the rough costs for your education material referred to at your caan website . Thanks
I take it you keep track of all of your wins / losses on a spreadsheet. Stupid question but are you ever tempted to just stop when you hit the top, just to stop you from chasing the top again?
no because chasing is not an issue for me I don't bring in motion to the table I only take value and place my bet when I know I am in a good position otherwise I just watch
Sissy Sassy I have seen far more upsets in tennis than football. Tennis is all reliant on one person, if they are having a bad day or injuries or anything they can easily lose to someone of far lower rank. Team games it’s less significant since there is usually a whole team and managers have the option to bring in substitutes if a player is having a bad day.
Hi caan is this the information you were referring to in your previous video regarding the 100k subs, or is that something else? Cheers for all the great videos
I agree with your concepts, but believe that 'value' can only be found using large amounts of historical data (which exists). All quant hedge funds are relying on Big Data (for which they pay enormous sums), horse racing is no different. So relying on odds changes in the final minute(s) doesn't meet that criteria. We logged odds data from 90 seconds out , every second, and found no correlation between falling odds (so called 'smart money') and better outcomes. And even if that could work, you'd have to have a reliable signal that odds will drop *naturally* from this point to race time, and take the higher odds. And when I say 'naturally' I mean The Crowd is doing this independently and not following 'group think' while watching the screen. I do agree about the horse (or team) being a proxy for odds, there's no reason to get fixated on a horse.
there are a lot of assumptions there are James. whilst I agree with a fair portion of it you're also missing a few things, big data when manipulated and used in the right way will without question be useful but you have to remember there are also some very large participants in the marketplace that have been using such datasets for decades. manipulation also goes on which may be shroud in your judgement. value can also be found in several other areas although I'm not so inclined to share on UA-cam for free, sorry.
@@CaanBerryProTrader Wrong. The best way to become a good poker player is to combine coaching and dealing. While you get paid, you can practice your live reads/hand reading skills. Then the payoff is after you get better at poker.
Dude, I know you're here just to promote your poker channel, but really, I'm not wrong... I make the annual figure you quoted there in just over a month trading sports odds. Don't have to face drunk people either. Think I'll stick to that.
"if there is bigger margin, stake bigger" what does that mean please?. does it mean if man city odd is 1.20 against burnley with 10 odd. (big margin) stake bigger on man city win?
It means you have a bigger advantage if you have a bigger margin in the price, thus you should increase your stake. It makes sense - better value = take more of it.
It makes sense for horse racing but what about other sports? Do you have insight into that? For example, parlay bets on NBA, NHL and NFL? Ive been lucky on all three these past seasons but it is not consistent
all sports work on the same basis that you need to find value for your betting strategy. saying it is harder than doing it of course, but the industry has people looking in the wrong direction by getting them to focus on said sport or individual instead of price. the price is all that really matters!
I understand the logic behind value but still feel there are question marks. First, surely there is also a subjective element to value that by definition cannot be quantified. And I also feel that the notion of winning over the longer term is extremely vague. How do you define longer term? For instance, here you use 100 bets to illustrate the different returns when value is obtained. But there is no way of knowing how many bets you'd have to place in order for the identified probability to play out. Could be 50, 100, 1000 or whatever. If it is not working out after a certain time or number of bets, how long to you hang in there before returns identified by probability do emerge? To me, it almost seems like the proverbial 'how long is a piece of string' scenario that is further complicated in events (such as horse races) where multiple different outcomes are possible.
Hi Cole, long-term is relative to the avearge odds range your are targetting. It can't just be a set period as it wouldnt relative the variance and odds line. I feel the question is somewhat awkward as, when you look at the facts and numbers involved it cannot be denied. Of course there is variation in results, but if you are consistently getting a bigger price than the value of it happening you will come out on top. Everything can be quantified. The larger your value or edge over true odds the quicker the cash lands in your pocket. I feel you're looking to overcomplicate it a little there.
@@CaanBerryProTrader I don't think I am over-complicating the issue at all. I believe that the concept of value is itself somewhat vague because of the subjectivity involved. One of the things I struggle to accept is this almost blind faith in the belief that obtaining 'value' guarantees success. Whatever great a price you might obtain, the outcome still has to occur in order for you to profit. For instance, it's no good repeatedly getting, say, 10/1 on a horse you think should be a 5/1 shot if that horse repeatedly loses. And I know the probability argument will then enter the fray, but my point relates to how long before it plays out. If indeed it does, because that in itself is not guaranteed. And surely that becomes even more uncertain in scenarios where multiple outcomes are possible and are themselves subject to influence from a range of different variables.
@@coleuk8817 Casinos make their fortunes on odds that are built in to their games! They may lose for weeks or even months on end at times in certain situations, but in the long run, they will profit! It's inevitable, it's mathematics! Numbers don't lie! Even with sports betting, sportsbooks have losing seasons, but they don't lose for long! If you consistently bet on a given outcome at 10/1 odds when the true odds are 5/1, you will turn a profit at some point. Whether it's in a week or a year or 5 years, those numbers will catch up if the true odds are really what they are compared to the odds being offered. The variables don't matter, the numbers will play out as they should..in time!
Please I have a problem with your no 1 betting strategy video. It is a good video but I do not understand the calculation from minute 3:21-4:00.PLEASE could you further simplify it?And also relate it more to football betting
we have some other useful football betting videos on this channel, the calculation you refer to to is known as cashing out or hedging. it's quite simple if you Google it for other examples. or see the trading explained tab at caanberry.com
Football analysis and betting tips I am new to this online business (experience over 15 years of betting) and if you need help I do not charge just ask after a while if I prove myself and show I would charge 5% -10% of the winnings (depending on the amount winnings and the amount of money you have paid and if you are satisfied) nothing is required if you do not want me it will be a pleasure for you to take their money. Let's take their money together if you want some advice or a match feel free to contact me in DM the chances of a hit are 80-85% Of course you have to understand that nothing is certain and that there is a possibility that we will miss sometimes @ sportgamblingtips I'm sure of it. Remember it costs nothing but if you don't have time to analyze and study the match in more detail I'm here for you Free. I don't have safe matches I don't have set matches I do this out of passion and now I have decided to try to turn it into a job and that is TO TAKE BETTING HOUSE MONEY! :) feel free to ask anything in DM. @sportgamblingtips
whilst that's true for the majority of people it's not true entirely I've made my living from horse racing for over 10 years now how long before this UA-cam channel
@@CaanBerryProTrader Not always very often it is the very lack of value that bet 365 give with their early greyhound prices that gives the punter value if he knows what he is doing let me explain. The bet 365 greyhound odds compilers aren't that clued up and thus in nearly every bags race they tend to underestimate and overestimate several dogs chances to a large degree and thus this gives the punter two chances of making a good profit firstly by backing two dogs in certain races where in your opinion both dogs are overpriced and secondly by doing combination forecasts in races where you think your selections are overpriced. Of course you can only do this with 365 because they are the only bookmakers who offer guaranteed prices on forecasts and only last week i had three forecasts that paid way over the industry forecast dividend including one that paid £40 pound with bet 365 while the industry forecast for the same race was just over £10 of course it goes without say that you have to know your dogs and you must be selective with your bets to make it work
Value is in line with true probability. Not so much to do with some kind of arbitrary action like time or shortening. It could be either and still be value.
I'm gonna be the devil's advocate here. If you are using exchange prices to gauge the true probabiliy of an outcome then guess what, so are the bookies! Exploit their pricing a couple of times and it's back to those heartbreaking "I got restricted in a day" videos. If one wants to consistently make profits from betting, he must be able to beat exchange prices. That requires the ability to accurately estimate true odds of an outcome on their own, without the help of the exchanges. And that's bloody difficult.
That's true and fair in many ways, up until the bit about needing to accurately estimate true odds. Why put all that effort into guessing the true odds when you can just know the true odds, and then know the reasons as to when, where and why the price will change. It's at least a 100x easier, trust me :)
@@CaanBerryProTrader Hi Caan. Just to clarify, I was talking about straight punting as that is what the example in the video is about. This is very different from trading where you are not concerned with actual value per se, but rather what the others think the value is. A trader will back a donkey into odds on if the others are doing the same, while a shrewd punter will be laying of course.
@@CaanBerryProTrader but you said the true odds are at the start of a race or match, how you know the reasons when and where the price will change then? you would need to know that a bit before the start to be able to put a profitable trade?
trying to be productive, can i ask if paid courses would teach one to Know the true odds, and then know the reasons as to when, where and why the price will change!! (or does that come with experience) maybe a ridiculous question as so many unknowns!
Do you bet or making these videos for money on UA-cam? Because I think making money from betting is way easier and huge if you can prove how effective your methods are... #Laser
Are you serious? I quit my job to trade sports odds a decade ago, and have never looked back. A byproduct of that was the worlds largest sports exchange sponsoring me to help educate their other customers on use etc, which is where this channel began. It's not a job when you do what you enjoy, plus the ad revenue on this channel is so low it's not even a factor! See the video about it...
Indeed, u gotta very smart with it to build up a bankroll and not lose out on it, better choose a game like poker then which requires some skills but even taht I wouldn't recommend, gambling is addictive as well.
I still don’t understand how you identify value. Surely it’s opinion based!? As long as you pick winners, you good… but your advice (professional I know) says it’s not about the nuances of the wager. Trying to learn but hard switching from heart betting punter to methodical patient expert
True odds is the odds that are reflective of the probable chance. For example the flip of a coin's true odds is evens, because there is an even chance of the flip, just 2 equal outcomes, heads or tails. 50%.
@UGot FactedOn thanks for responding. But in dont have a model or even software to do that comparison. So a clear explanation of how i can identify true odds would be more helpful.
On a Saturday with full list of football fixtures I like to bet on both teams to score yes with odds of evens or above that way I usually always make a healthy profit
Do you just choose the games with odds of evens or above randomly or do you look into both of the teams' match history (for example if both teams score often in other games they have played)?
My friend and I live together but for some reason the only way we can use Caesars is on one computer, hence one IP. We only bet the minimum and don’t go ape with huge bets. Do you think they’ll figure it out, or even care, that we’re on the same computer?
In the states they don't care much now, but they certainly will do in a year or so time. Make the most of it and take the value now. Would advise seeing the system video we uploaded last week for US markets.
Hi Caan, I get all your saying but what’s the best and fastest way to find a bookie who is offering value say a horse in the last few minutes before the off, as I expect the opportunity would likely only last seconds, is there a way to see the exchange and bookies odds on the same screen for example? cheers. Mike
Want to get more specific? Check out this football strategy upload here: ua-cam.com/video/1NYOEfSw-DE/v-deo.html
h
Yh das gud nk
Where can I find a reliable trusted Betting site to bet on UFC and DotA 2 that has either no limit max bets or at least 100K AND No maximum winnings and no maximum deposit ... I correctly predicted Ronda rousey streak and losses to holly holm and amanda nunes
Is fixed games really exists?
There are a few factors in sports picks. One plan I found that successfully combines these is the Simple Sports Goldmine (check it out on google) definately the most incredible system that I have ever heard of.Check out the interesting information .
There's only one strategy....bet against arsenal and man utd 😄😅
Not funny 😂😂😂
United are unbeaten in 12 games 👍🏻 I’d say your fairly successful
United lost my bet, 140->620 zl (around 35->155 Euro), I should have believed ;(
LOL
Today Arsenal lost me 50000$ man
I recently lost my job due to covid, so I decided to start a youtube channel. Wish me Luck
Good luck!
why aren't you betting
lie
@M W i need quick cash man, what shall i bet on?
Good luck mate.
This is why we all need to be using an exchange! In football the odds lose their efficiency after kick off, some prices will be terrible value while others will be amazing. It is your job to exploit these inefficiencies by using pre match and in play information. Form a plan of action and stick to it, stake no more than 3% of your bank on any one trade and use this 3% wisely. In other words the 3% is your maximum risk so stake according to risk.
Bang on the money there, Robbie.
I like this
I'm still confused. Can someone explain this to me like I'm 5 and preferably using football
When you thoroughly understand "value betting" combined with the "law of large numbers" then all you need is patience and discipline and the rest is history.
Truth :)
Theory doesn't work in practice.
Thanks bro needed to hear this!💯
@@Dre-Rich jb,,, j,
@@fisherman8602 I suggest watching his videos again pal
Thanks for sharing. I've had a few losses this year and when I think back I was betting on my opinion on how I perceive the event (I.e the player/team) rather than the odds value. It's made me re evaluate how I look at match betting now. Hopefully will help me raise profit + ROI.
Did it help?
Its 50/50 with those odds and its 50/50 with going with your own believe. I say that because when I go with the odds, I win probably 50 percent of the time and when I go against the odds I win about 50 percent of the time. Even if you win 9 out of 10 bets, it all seems to even out. I guess the best strategy is to win a little, chill, then start again
Bro… why 😂😭..
“I’ve had a few losses this year”…
This video just explained to us, in detail, that It’s a rough 50/50 win:loss ratio for everyone. Then you pop up “oh I’ve lost a few times this whole year thanks for the advice” on some obvious bullshit! Wtf? 😂 that is quite impressive I guess?
What are you event looking for lol?
WOW BRO ONLY A FEW LOSSES?! You’RE A KING! COOLEST DUDE ALIVE! HES SO AWESOME THAT HE ONLY LOST A FEW BETS ALL YEAR’!!!
Loser...
force
I understood the concept of expected value being greater than the implied probability from the odds, in order to make an expected profit. But this still doesn't change the fact that the probability that a bet with 4 odds has approximately 25% of winning, which is quite low
when he said please after the subscribe suggestion ontop of the money strats in this channel i just couldnt refuse the sub button
Manners cost nothing, right? No matter who you are...
My selection has a 0.0001% chance of winning. I’ll become a millionaire one day. Hmmm 🤔 that day may be a lot later than my house repossession, bailiff notice, divorce court order etc.
Bloody expensive that last point!
The most profitable strategy is to find out what lines I'm taking in a market and bet in the opposite direction, lol.
can u explain it more ?
@@7lool125 hello are you interested for free picks?
haha, although that wouldn't be profitable after you factors in commission
@@CaanBerryProTrader Surely that would depend on how bad my profitability is.
FYI I'm being very tongue in cheek with my comment as I am a profitable layer/trader. I specialize in greyhounds but can dabble in most sport for profit.
The teams/players/horses do matter, since you need a baseline percentage to workout what a value bet looks like. Ofc it matters a lot less if your just trading positions, since your just looking for changes in the market.
if you're looking to price an entire market, not if you are looking to steal some value.
No project like lzn
It is all about value and it amazes me that people bet more the shorter the odds are rather than the more value they get. I had £900 on a 100-1 horse before because it was huge value but I rarely ever bet that big on 2-1 shots.
Shorter odds are typically closer to true-odds in nature, but larger odds are usually the ones with a false price for whatever reason.
@@CaanBerryProTrader possibly on the surface the big priced events have little chance on the surface but with some more digging they have a much better chance
But if the price is bigger then the horse is less likely to win,so you are putting your betting bank more at risk.
Themaggsy1 no your not long odds horses or teams win a lot more often than people actually believe, you risk little to win big when the big odds eventually come In
Respect bro! We love doing small 2 team parlays
Hi Caan,
Great work. Subscribed your channel and started following.
Thanks, Sven. Take some time to check out all the vids!
This applies to games like roulette because the odds are absolutely mathematically fixed. It’s not the same for horse racing as you cannot truly gauge what the true mathematical probability of winning is. You can have the wisdom of the crowd but that’s not the same as absolute mathematical truth as in roulette. The underlying fundamentals are obviously correct however.
Indeed, numbers don't lie!
I trade the Financial markets. My win loss ration is approx 50%. BUT.................and this is the way I've been consistently profitable ( my winners are 3-4 times bigger than my losses. Caan.......You speak such sense PROBABILITIES are what Our focus should be on. There are No guarantees in trading or betting................but boy, can we put the odds in Our favour, if we know what to look for. I used to trade on emotion, with no focus, no plan - shooting from the the hip. No surprise, I lost alot of £££££££. Do your homework people, and focus on edge. Those who don't know what edge is...........YOU DON'T HAVE ONE!!!
very fair comment Phil
Funny how you didn't tell anyone how to find value in the end. For that people need to sign up to your courses. Which is probably how you make actual money.
in fact he did. You must to look at the exchanges odds closest to the start of the event. than you must to search for odds that are bigger on the other bookmakers. the bigger the gap between the odds the bigger the value and the bigger you must to stake. But it's really hard to find those value bets without a software. and then you must to pay for online bookies who can find these value bets alone. Or you can go for surebets too. In the end I think it's really hard work for a little outcome and If you go big you will get restricted. Think of another way to make real money. The only way to make money online betting and make millions is by courtside betting. But also to do that it s a bit hard and you need not to get caught as it is more restricted. If you wanna know more about it go here ua-cam.com/video/kvT_yIVI2Qw/v-deo.html
Even then he can't tell you because nobody knows what the bfsp will be, you can anticipate moves some of the time but that's it. If anyone tells you different then they're lying
If you think that, you'll never find it. But even now in 2020 it still happens daily, and no, I'm not lying. I'm not just going to put that bit on UA-cam, because, why would I?
Hello Mr Caan Berry. We don't need to speak too much grammar when we can quickly bring out example to buttress our point.
Here are boxing bouts for 31/10/2020; make your picks and let's work out the outcome on 01/11/2020 here. Thanks!!!
1. Lamont Roach 1.08
Neil John Tabanao 9.8.
2. Marlen Esparza 2.41
Sulem Urbina 1.67
3. Bektemir Melikuzier 1.05
Alan Campa 12.0
4. Elwin Soto 1.06
Carlos Buitrago 9.5
5. Jamie Munguia 1.26
Tureano Johnson 4.18.
Hello Caan! Thanks for posting this video! I have a question. If i know the true odds, how do you increase the odds to gain value? Some odds posted are greater or lower than all 3 true odds calculated by me. We must calculate the true odds of all bookies to make comparison with?
Exchanges provide the best guage of true odds for us due to the many voices involved and the liquidty available.
Opening lines do take into account public perception not always true implied probability and line movement isn't always indicative of money in/out. Weather could change, a player could be out, other things can move the line and change the true probability . Then you need to find a book that is offering you lines that are better than open and hope they keep your account open, not many books do that and most wont for long.
There is a strategy opposite to this most swear by called steam chasing. Everyone has a 100% winning strategy, it's just not the case.
Wisdom of crowds is a thing though... with hundreds of thousands of users on an exchange.
It is very hard to find someone on UA-cam who makes sense.Everyone has strategies...they simply don t work.There are only 2 sure ways of making money from betting: matched betting and arbitrage.That is math.The other ones are all relying on probabilities thus include risks.Yes,we know,long term...blah blah blah.Mathematically.In the practical world,the punter who just had a losing streak of n bets,can t abstain himself and puts his money on the first bet he finds.That is tilting.Strategies are extremely dangerous just because they depend on variance A LOT.Everything is good when u hit 2 3 in a row...but what happens when u lose in a row? That s why Martingale,Fibonacci,Labouchere,D Alembert,Paroli don t really work in real life .Of course,theoretically,it must hit Red sometimes,right?After 99 blacks.But do u still have money left in the bank? Not really.Every single idiot who posted on UA-cam about betting is talking nonsense.They all think theirs is the one.Lay the draw,lay the draw with insurance,bad each way races,always back the favourite away...etc.They simply don t work for the normal punter.Only if u have bots to find the real value .
What about surebets (arbitrage betting)? Is Betnetto surebets good platform? I overheard some guy at the restaurant talking about how he earn 2k monthly by playing surebets. Can this be real?
Arbitrage is a relatively safe way of milking incorrect odds yes. Never heard of the platforms you mention.
Arbitrage bettors will be limited by bookies within about a week and there’s little profit to be made from then on. You can make a few quid at the beginning but It’s not sustainable. The only way to make long term profits is to bet with exchanges such as Betfair and have a proven winning strategy.
Really love your concepts man. Nice work
I like the contest section on a particular site. Always loved squares. It's just a big game of chance. Also getting to bet on the ufc is pretty fun. I just bet very little with low probability. I bet a ko or tko in the last fight that was +1000 and won. Only bet $15 so it was $150. I just didn't believe the hype of O'Malley.
O MALLEY WON ME MONEY TOO
Then you loose a ticket on a fix 1.45 football match.
The best strategy is to bet against your friend bet :))) because they will always loose :))))
I suppose that's fun if you do it that way at least!
I think when you combine value with knowledge of teams, you have a dream scenario. Teams do matter because they are human being with emotions and tendencies. American sports especially, teams get streaky (hot and cold). Also, sometimes, good teams getting embarrassed last time out, 3 games in 4 nights, etc can all impact a teams value that night. I find with basketball and hockey, I find tremendous value in the live betting market (alternative betting), where ill get odds of something happened at 40% but its above that. Than if the line moves enough in my favor, ill either let it ride or sometimes try and hit the middle. very hard to do with soccer but a sound strategy for Most American sports.
Value wins or loses everything. Doesn't matter what you know about a team if there is no value, you just can't win!
No project like lzn
Simply explained, good work
Why are people so negative regarding your bookie vid.......keep it up.
I have no idea? Maybe they are all bookies, or work for bookies, or have lost a heap of cash and feel the need to drag others down in the process? It's a pretty helpful video for anyone interested in the mechanics of strategy. Have a goodun :)
Yeah works great - I'm staking restricted to 0 with most bookies... xD
Guess, you have lost a lot from gambling. otherwise why wouldnt you control yourself from gambling and hop on to this video. He is not the one who you mentioned in the comment, you are doing it to yourself.
always providing helpful tips in your videos, i like it
Hi Caan, solid content like usual. Do you have any suggestions on which bookmakers allow for really fast live bet placement? I've been using a few bookmakers that take up to 11 seconds just to process a live bet which is ridiculous and a lot of value is lost when I miss good prices. If you could even point me in the right direction that would be great!
Caan ofc you won't reply and give out any truly useful information
Of course I do. I just don't do it all for free :) ....why would I? Same as the rest of the world!
Regarding bookies fast bet placement? They put the delays in for a reason, you won't find a faster one. Bit of a stupid question when you think about it.
@@CaanBerryProTrader Isn't that the whole point of your channel to help people become better traders? I didn't know if was used for self-promotion only which goes against the image that I believe you have presented to date - of wanting to help other traders develop. If it is for self-promotion only, then that makes me question why you're looking for additional sources of income and suggests you're not making enough from trading.
And since there is considerable difference between in play time delays from bookmaker to bookmaker as well as sport to sport, I don't think it's a stupid question at all, and if anything, it shows a level of thinking and consideration that is at least higher than your average punter at the bar.
"Isn't that the whole point of your channel to help people become better traders?" Yes, but everything has a price right? If you get a plumber to switch out your boiler he's helping you, but does paying him make it disingenuous? No.
"I didn't know if was used for self-promotion only" Are you serious? Sticking the word 'only' in there makes it quite twisted, and shows you probably have some alternate agenda here. Probably why the account looks anonymous. Anyway, why would anyone bother making UA-cam videos if there was zero benefits in doing so? It costs them time. The whole of UA-cam is pretty much self-promoting.
"If it is for self-promotion only, then that makes me question why you're looking for additional sources of income" Question it all you want. I'm not bothered, I've proved it many times over. I wonder if you would question using Virgin Atlantic because Richard Branson had already made enough money with Virgin Megastores. Flawed logic, many successful people have multiple streams of income, it just makes sense to.
The delayed placement one is pretty daft, as if any bookie is going to give you a super-fast delay increasing your chances of beating them.
@@CaanBerryProTrader Seemed like OP was asking a genuine question and made some good points in his other message.
Not sure why your immediate response was to insult and get defensive.
Great video mate 👍
might be a dumb question, say your bet is losing. EG a football team is losing 2-0, should you cash out or should you let all bets run?
The margin I mention in the video that is applied by a bookie makes it bad value. You should know, when you cash-out with them they apply this margin again... so double-screwed yes. You would need to be taking huge value in order to back with a bookie and cash out with them and still be in the green.
i would use asian handicap live odds to scrap some profit
Don't do accumulator.simple
his reply makes sense but some bookies dont screw over second time i think, and when you wonder if you should cash out, my tip is look at your own bank do you need that money, think about your overall luck factor dont know if you get this, and try to find feeling can it go wrong, ask yourself if losing team is really doing worse if score dont makes sense i suggest cash out.
no. gamble the lot
Not sure where to post this. Been watching your videos & betting on Betfair exchange on a laptop without any software as yet, although have looked at Geeks Toy but not very computer literate. Also have the book but halfway through it.
Right have laid a horse on Betfair & then backed it with a smaller amount to cover the bet which meant whichever horse won I was making a profit of about 10-15% of my original stake. The cash sign also comes up with the offer of a cash out !! do I take that as well or ignore it ?
to cash out with BT spread profit across the entire market. if you are backing for £2 and laying for £2 then you would only see the profit on the selection that you placed the bits because it is not hedged aka cashed out.
Got a question caan. Do you think that racing betting will remain the same after this pandemic. Eg. Do you think the bookies will all survive and if they do will things be the same as before with regards to concessions and prices?
It never stopped mate in Australia 🇦🇺
I agree.
Cool video. Where can we get before a race and opening (as soon as odds are available) price data to run some algos?
Betfair Historical Data? See this - ua-cam.com/video/sVMcLLoH06M/v-deo.html
Awesome, thank you!
So basically put Ur life savings on red or black
Not advised no.
Don't you just double up next round to get.... Oh sorry I bumped my head and stumbled in to a casino.
lol
Yes, then green comes out.
@@sabre22b Never double. You have to triple your bet.
I still dont get how you find value. Is it just looking at the favorite? and determining if the bookies odds are higher? Because if its any horse than you need to factor in the odds of it winning and it sounds like you're saying to just get that from seeing what punters are betting on exchanges. If its a horse that is 6 places away from the favorite in terms of odds and the bookies have higher odds than its value. Even though its not likely to win are you saying thats still value and it should be bet on?
Caan I know you're advocating taking value here, which is of course, the only way to make long-term profit. I agree with all that, but you're saying the best way to ascertain the relative 'value' or true odds of an event occurring is to look at the exchanges near the off, again true, this is when the exchange is most accurate as the odds are ultimately dictated by supply and demand and the money changing hands, and the wisdom in numbers means this is the truest price, the problem is how can you then find value elsewhere? If you found a bookie offering a higher price than the exchange near the off, I'd like you to let me know which bookie that is? Because all you'll get at that stage is liveshows. And if you consistently do manage BEFORE the liveshows to get higher prices with bookies, you know what will happen, as you've shown on other videos. You'll just get banned. So how can this actually be applied? If you're talking about finding value actually on the exchanges, how, as the price changes so does the relative implied probability? It's kind of like reverse logic. You're using the current trading price to give you the 'true odds' but you can't beat the current trading price? If the price goes out, then now the new price is the current trading price, so now that is the 'true odds', you see what I'm saying with this? Where do you get the value from?
Hey! Not seen a comment from you for a while. Hope you're well... in answer:
1. how can you then find value elsewhere?
Think I understand what you're asking but; there is not such value in every instance. Anticipation of movement is the key because you have an opportunity to exploit the price for a limited time.
2. I'd like you to let me know which bookie that is?
Unfortunately, it changes by the day, hour, minute... they all do at one point or another. None are super-efficient.
3. So how can this actually be applied?
Yep, you'll get banned for winning. That's bookies business model. In the short term you can certainly apply and take value though, its just not going to be a golden goose forever.
4. how, as the price changes so does the relative implied probability? Remeber it's not an eternal sliding scale, we're talking about the last minute to post in most cases when the market is most fluid and accurate.
5. You can't beat the current trading price? You can. And while I'd love to discuss and share this with you as I know you're a long-term follower with some great insight, I'm just not going to put that part on UA-cam at this stage :) ...but you can.
@@CaanBerryProTrader Okay thanks Caan. And I am actually a subscriber to your video pack. I'm going to go through it all again during this lockdown period. See if I can get even more out of it if I go through it methodically. Cheers for the reply
You speak such sense PROBABILITIES are what Our focus should be on.
Great video!
The tip with the true odds of the betting exchange was especially eye opening. I’ve got a question related to that, wouldn’t you have to consider commission into these true odds too? As in, the odds of the betting exchanges are the closest to being true odds after subtracting the commission?
Sure, but if you're using a sportsbook at true odds or above there is no commission... or have I misunderstood you?
Caan Berry Pro Trader
I was referring to what you said around 2:35. I was wondering if let’s say the odds for o2.5 goals is 2.0 at betfair, are these even odds already the true odds? If you just want to assess the true odds of a particular event, nothing else?
Or would you further have to subtract the 5% commission to calculate the truest odds in a way, as I presumed traders would factor that in on top of the true odds in order to compensate the loss of the 5%?
To stick with the example of the o2.5 at even odds, if you wager 10 pounds you would receive 19 pounds if successful after commission. Would hence be 1.9 the closest to the true odds of o2.5 goals or already the odds at 2.0?
Still don't get how you identify a price of good value. Like in football betting, there so many markets. How do you know the price to go for?
Awesome stuff mate, kudos!!
Cheers, good to see it was helpful.
I used to work out the over round in the betting shops before a race to gauge value. You have to take into account with horses people will back favourite names, jockeys which distort the pricing. All a bookie wants is his little bit of the pie.
Sure! Although it's not all that little when you work it out, is it. 365 done 660 Million profit last year alone.
@@CaanBerryProTrader People have a go at the Coates's, at least they had the foresight to see where betting was going and started Bet365 Online. In over 200 countries betting on horses, poker, bingo, etc. There's always winners and losers. What gets me is when they pay millions for football players?, The likes of Moore, Pele, Best all missed the good times.
Hi Caan , in play with bookmakers though u can still get value. Is that correct. Because of price drift 👍🏼
Hi Leo, no unfortunately not. In-play the same applies, although the bookmakers typically make their margin bigger because of the volatility of price movement (because there are less bets struck etc). So their margin is bigger, meaning the price is worse, even poorer value. In-play betting on things like football and cash-out is a truly hideous proposal. Sorry if that wasn't the answer you were looking for mate!
Hi Caan , thanks for reply. I no cash out is terrible , I’m talking say Man City to win before game is 1.2 then after 30 mins they are 1.4 that is value no ??
@@leonolan3939 i use that sort of "backing losing favourites" type strategy all the time and it is definitely profitable but of course you need to use an exchange to get the most out of it not a bookmakers
@@leonolan3939 By that logic Man city is big value at 3.0 when there's 5 minutes left.
But how do you actually know what is good value ?
firstly thanks for taking the time to share the video. You are right, price dictates everything, if something is bigger than you think it should be, look into backing it. Question, if something is 3-1, it should win 25% of the time, is that 3-1 on the video with bookmaker over-round factored in however? Also it looks like from the video, the majority of your trading is done on Betfair, have you factored in commission payments? Thanks
Glad it was helpful!
On the toss of the coin the bookies won’t give you evens on heads or tails, they’ll give you 9/10 (or possibly 4/5) on both. A mark-up of 10-20%. As you say it isn’t rocket science.
They do though, by mistake, sometimes. Not in the majority of cases as you say though :)
It's all common sense really, but very well put together and easy to understand. Cheers again Caan
You're entirely right. Many people don't even think about it though. The inclination is to just automatically believe the mainstream media and have a punt picking the winner. Thanks.
Very very helpful video mate
But whats the benefit of it when youll get banned eventually for taking big odds?
Is exchange markets same as sportsbook will banned you ?
You'll get banned if you win. Its just how it is, the law allows them to behave like this. Exchange markets don't ban as you are betting against other users.
Just started properly gambling low stakes to I find my succeful markets I'm up couple hundred with goals over under
I’m trying to do this aswell, have any tips ? I’m looking to bet on football
Find some strategy and success before parting with your money. See the latest upload, thats a strategy that works.
Your a professional on your horses. Myself sports. Yes close to the start of event you lay down. In terms of getting value all the betting places have similar prices anyway. Line betting is the only way to be profitable. Yes they take 9% always the line is 1.91. dont the be taking short lines. I firmly believe in keeping the same stake. If your picking 2/3 winners your profitable. 8/10 your profitable. 1/2 loose small amounts. Sometimes you can loose 4-5 times in a row but purple patches of 10-15 winners in a row happens more. Media always pumps the wrong tyres up. Do your own research.
True, so long as all those winners you pick are a higher price than the average odds they represent. Price is the important thing, could pick 3 winners out of 10... but if you were getting (9.0) 8/1 on each winner, you'd be far in the lead.
whats your profit last 5 years? easy tell yourself just got to hit winners even they pay out 1.91, results dont lie, i doubt your winning on the long run and i dont mean your last 20 bets or whatever where you hit your patch, fact bookmaker not blocked you yet mean your not considered a winner
@@CaanBerryProTrader most sensible thing you said in 5years
@@gonewiththedrugs I loves these guys caan.. 😂
good simple walkthrough of how odds are compiled and how to find value bets.
Thanks, that's what we intended! Cheers, glat it helped.
Good video, what website are there to use after most accounts are restricted? What's good high limit bookies are there other than pinnacle and betfair?
No such thing as a free lunch. None of the bookies will tolerate you winning, like card counting in a casino, they'll just throw you out.
Thanks Caan, finally the truth about betting, no one will believe you though as most think the colour of the jockey's under trollies are a good indicator and add value. I discovered the maths a few years back and just went on a value betting spree and was eventually gubbed to death. Great fun. Nowadays I use value as a basis for my tipping site as that makes a lot more money and is zero hassle. If my subscribers knew I never ever watch a horse race or look at the form they would have several fits but as you say you could be betting on three legged donkeys and make money if the price is right. I automated the tipping using the BF API and am actually looking for some co-operation on a new project for auto arbing/value betting. Let me know if you would be interested or know someone who is.
Cheers, Stephen. You're correct of course, its sad that so many think like that (and listen to the medias narative, paid for by bookies). Inevitably doing this you will get restricted as people have seen in other videos.. fair few quid in it though.
Can you explain what you mean by automated the tipping using betfair api please? Cheers
@@CaanBerryProTrader I've won £10000 this month doing trebles and singles etc but I've hit a stopping point and can't get past 10k.. Keep going from 8k too 9k back and forth.. Any suggestions?
Not sure I agree with your picks, but interesting perspective!
Which betting site do you use or recommend
I'm not going to recommend any in particular! However, I would say exchanges are a far better option for the end user in comparisson to sportsbooks.
I great strategy i have found to make steady profit is playing for a cash out. Maybe not the best for long term, however i will do a football acca on say 6 games to not finish 0-0. Now 0-0 isn't a common score in football but it can happen, but the likelyhood is, 4 or 5 of those games are going to have a scorer. At that point you cash out. Its rare that i lose on this and even though im not making mega profit its adding up. A few £30-£150 wins every day or 2 goes a long way. And the more you have you more you can essentially put on for larger profit margins.
Where do you do this?
It's all nice and tidy with the figures, but real life is not figures.
Probability does not work in horse races, football or any other sport. It only works in the Casino and they have their safety margin already.
So call me naive, but there is no betting strategy that is not based on luck.
Bayern usually wins with high goal difference against poor opposition at home? You found the best odds because of your famous calculation? BAM, 3:3 against Bielefeld.
If probability doesn't work, how do bookmakers choose the odds and make money? Were they just luckier than everyone else? ....thought not.
@@CaanBerryProTrader Bookmakers are not the ones placing the bet. I'm not a bookmaker, so what can I do about bookmaking?
Thanks for the video! The mentioned strategy works pretty well in sports I think. Am I right?
Yes
Fact is, no one knows the true price. Not even the bookmakers. Anyone who believes they do is fooling themselves and will empty their bank account pretty quickly. Yes the bookmakers will have a reasonably close approximation of the odds for any particular event to begin with, but the way they make their profit is to use complex algorithms to adjust those odds depending upon how much money is wagered for or against a particular outcome so that they guarantee a profit no matter the actual outcome.
So the reality is, the closer to the event start that you wait to make your bet, by that time the bookies have already adjusted their odds to ensure they make a profit.
Nobody? Some of what you say holds some truth there, but saying nobody knows.... isn't.
@@CaanBerryProTrader I stick by what I say. Nobody can be certain of the true odds on a consistent basis. And for this to be workable, you have to be able to do this consistently, otherwise it's just gambling.
Hey Caan, in your opinion, what would you say is the number 1 horse 'Trading' strategy 'That Works' pre or post-off..scalping, front runners, b2l'ing steamers, or another? &what racing market would best suits the strategy
If you forced me to choose one, trading short-term based on support and resistance... an overlap with scalping there for sure although not entirely scalping alone.
@@CaanBerryProTrader Ta, is it still advisable to employ directional bias scalping at odds below 3.0 & even below 2.0?
Am I the only one who didn’t understand this at all?
Possibly not the only one. What is it you didn't understand? In order to win betting, you must bet at a bigger price than the implied chance of the event happening. Over the long term, by doing this, you will win, its a mathmatical fact. This is the point we are trying to get over whist explaining a few other things.... its got jack all to do with the right team etc.
@@CaanBerryProTrader still don't understand when you say 'price' you say 'odd'? when you say 'event from happening' you say 'tsunami or hurricane?' i'm lost
yeah man same here, the concepts seem to be so simple but the words used and way of thinking got me so confused
It doesn't make any mathematical sense. The whole concept of "value" in sports betting is flawed. The so-called experts try to con us by giving examples of tossing a coin but sports betting has nothing in common with flipping a coin. And good luck to anyone who wants to work out whether odds offered are higher than the true probability of a sporting outcome - in most cases it's impossible.
What odds shall we look from betfair? the back odds or the average between back and lay? which are the closest to reality? thanks
Where theres good liqudity the price is usually quite accurate.
Very new to your videos but I’ve been on BF 15 years and your Thesis is sound. At the end of the video what is the rough costs for your education material referred to at your caan website . Thanks
Depends, there's lots of free stuff on there if that's what you prefer :)
Caan, what is your opinion on the westbrom brentford game this evening? What should I be looking at? Thanx
Guess I'm seeing this one a little bit late!
@@CaanBerryProTrader no worries
I take it you keep track of all of your wins / losses on a spreadsheet. Stupid question but are you ever tempted to just stop when you hit the top, just to stop you from chasing the top again?
no because chasing is not an issue for me I don't bring in motion to the table I only take value and place my bet when I know I am in a good position otherwise I just watch
the only way to beat the bookies is with a balaclava a shotgun a 2.0litre jeep and a 4.45pm attack better odds means more value and success rates
Not true, but a funny comment all the same :D
How do you know the chance or probability of something happening then?
Over the years, I have come to the conclusion that tennis an basketball are more predictable and slightly easier to predict
Why did you come to that conclusion? The value is in the price... nothing to do with the prediction :)
Sure brother
Sure brother
Sissy Sassy I have seen far more upsets in tennis than football. Tennis is all reliant on one person, if they are having a bad day or injuries or anything they can easily lose to someone of far lower rank. Team games it’s less significant since there is usually a whole team and managers have the option to bring in substitutes if a player is having a bad day.
I bet football, tennis, hockey, basketball and ufc. Basketball by far is the easiest to get right on most nights.
Hi caan is this the information you were referring to in your previous video regarding the 100k subs, or is that something else? Cheers for all the great videos
No. I haven't shared that :)
Best betting strategy that works for me every time is not to bet at all this 💩 will only make you loose your money and will never get it back
But still you're here watching the video?
How do you make a small fortune betting on horses? Start with a large one.
@@sabre22b hey mate, yeah sure !! Cheers 👍
🎯🎯
cus you suck my brother sorry 4 u
It was suggested i follow your channel to enlighten myself..so here i am.
Good stuff.
@@CaanBerryProTrader I really need the idiots guide to gambling as I'm not very quick on the uptake..😉
If you win consistently then you either get stakes cut or banned.
This is true, John. With a sportsbook anyway... not with an exchange.
@@CaanBerryProTrader What is an exchange for betting?
@@CaanBerryProTrader what exchange?
names of some exchanges? do they also allow parlays?
can be used with bitcoin for deposit and withdrawal?
I agree with your concepts, but believe that 'value' can only be found using large amounts of historical data (which exists). All quant hedge funds are relying on Big Data (for which they pay enormous sums), horse racing is no different. So relying on odds changes in the final minute(s) doesn't meet that criteria. We logged odds data from 90 seconds out , every second, and found no correlation between falling odds (so called 'smart money') and better outcomes. And even if that could work, you'd have to have a reliable signal that odds will drop *naturally* from this point to race time, and take the higher odds. And when I say 'naturally' I mean The Crowd is doing this independently and not following 'group think' while watching the screen. I do agree about the horse (or team) being a proxy for odds, there's no reason to get fixated on a horse.
there are a lot of assumptions there are James. whilst I agree with a fair portion of it you're also missing a few things, big data when manipulated and used in the right way will without question be useful but you have to remember there are also some very large participants in the marketplace that have been using such datasets for decades. manipulation also goes on which may be shroud in your judgement. value can also be found in several other areas although I'm not so inclined to share on UA-cam for free, sorry.
Or you could be a poker dealer and let everyone else bet and make like $30+ an hour.
You could do, but what's that? 60k a year.... ish.
@@CaanBerryProTrader Yep and no stress of being right or wrong
@@truepokerdealer No payoff either.
@@CaanBerryProTrader Wrong. The best way to become a good poker player is to combine coaching and dealing. While you get paid, you can practice your live reads/hand reading skills. Then the payoff is after you get better at poker.
Dude, I know you're here just to promote your poker channel, but really, I'm not wrong... I make the annual figure you quoted there in just over a month trading sports odds. Don't have to face drunk people either. Think I'll stick to that.
"if there is bigger margin, stake bigger" what does that mean please?. does it mean if man city odd is 1.20 against burnley with 10 odd. (big margin) stake bigger on man city win?
It means you have a bigger advantage if you have a bigger margin in the price, thus you should increase your stake. It makes sense - better value = take more of it.
Awesome stuff Cann!
Thank you! Cheers!
It makes sense for horse racing but what about other sports? Do you have insight into that? For example, parlay bets on NBA, NHL and NFL? Ive been lucky on all three these past seasons but it is not consistent
all sports work on the same basis that you need to find value for your betting strategy. saying it is harder than doing it of course, but the industry has people looking in the wrong direction by getting them to focus on said sport or individual instead of price. the price is all that really matters!
This video is good for me because all I know is the roulette table in gta 🤣
Vinewood?
I understand the logic behind value but still feel there are question marks. First, surely there is also a subjective element to value that by definition cannot be quantified. And I also feel that the notion of winning over the longer term is extremely vague. How do you define longer term? For instance, here you use 100 bets to illustrate the different returns when value is obtained. But there is no way of knowing how many bets you'd have to place in order for the identified probability to play out. Could be 50, 100, 1000 or whatever. If it is not working out after a certain time or number of bets, how long to you hang in there before returns identified by probability do emerge? To me, it almost seems like the proverbial 'how long is a piece of string' scenario that is further complicated in events (such as horse races) where multiple different outcomes are possible.
Hi Cole, long-term is relative to the avearge odds range your are targetting. It can't just be a set period as it wouldnt relative the variance and odds line. I feel the question is somewhat awkward as, when you look at the facts and numbers involved it cannot be denied. Of course there is variation in results, but if you are consistently getting a bigger price than the value of it happening you will come out on top. Everything can be quantified. The larger your value or edge over true odds the quicker the cash lands in your pocket. I feel you're looking to overcomplicate it a little there.
@@CaanBerryProTrader I don't think I am over-complicating the issue at all. I believe that the concept of value is itself somewhat vague because of the subjectivity involved. One of the things I struggle to accept is this almost blind faith in the belief that obtaining 'value' guarantees success. Whatever great a price you might obtain, the outcome still has to occur in order for you to profit. For instance, it's no good repeatedly getting, say, 10/1 on a horse you think should be a 5/1 shot if that horse repeatedly loses. And I know the probability argument will then enter the fray, but my point relates to how long before it plays out. If indeed it does, because that in itself is not guaranteed. And surely that becomes even more uncertain in scenarios where multiple outcomes are possible and are themselves subject to influence from a range of different variables.
@@coleuk8817 Casinos make their fortunes on odds that are built in to their games! They may lose for weeks or even months on end at times in certain situations, but in the long run, they will profit! It's inevitable, it's mathematics! Numbers don't lie! Even with sports betting, sportsbooks have losing seasons, but they don't lose for long! If you consistently bet on a given outcome at 10/1 odds when the true odds are 5/1, you will turn a profit at some point. Whether it's in a week or a year or 5 years, those numbers will catch up if the true odds are really what they are compared to the odds being offered. The variables don't matter, the numbers will play out as they should..in time!
Please I have a problem with your no 1 betting strategy video. It is a good video but I do not understand the calculation from minute 3:21-4:00.PLEASE could you further simplify it?And also relate it more to football betting
we have some other useful football betting videos on this channel, the calculation you refer to to is known as cashing out or hedging. it's quite simple if you Google it for other examples. or see the trading explained tab at caanberry.com
Mate betting on horses is the worst thing you can do period. Feel sorry for the people who take your advice.
Football analysis and betting tips I am new to this online business (experience over 15 years of betting) and if you need help I do not charge just ask after a while if I prove myself and show I would charge 5% -10% of the winnings (depending on the amount winnings and the amount of money you have paid and if you are satisfied) nothing is required if you do not want me it will be a pleasure for you to take their money. Let's take their money together if you want some advice or a match feel free to contact me in DM the chances of a hit are 80-85% Of course you have to understand that nothing is certain and that there is a possibility that we will miss sometimes @ sportgamblingtips I'm sure of it. Remember it costs nothing but if you don't have time to analyze and study the match in more detail I'm here for you Free. I don't have safe matches I don't have set matches I do this out of passion and now I have decided to try to turn it into a job and that is TO TAKE BETTING HOUSE MONEY! :) feel free to ask anything in DM. @sportgamblingtips
@@ctns8094 I’m all over it. After my fourth bet I’m playing with the houses money. I win thousands good luck with your business
whilst that's true for the majority of people it's not true entirely I've made my living from horse racing for over 10 years now how long before this UA-cam channel
Well explained .. thanks
You are welcome
I get that you win 25/100 with 25% but why is it still 25/100 with 20% win rate?
Because the point is you still get the 25% price (more value).
Bookies are the biggest winners after all
Of course they are, they add rediculous margins and ban winners (see other vids on the chan).
@@CaanBerryProTrader Not always very often it is the very lack of value that bet 365 give with their early greyhound prices that gives the punter value if he knows what he is doing let me explain. The bet 365 greyhound odds compilers aren't that clued up and thus in nearly every bags race they tend to underestimate and overestimate several dogs chances to a large degree and thus this gives the punter two chances of making a good profit firstly by backing two dogs in certain races where in your opinion both dogs are overpriced and secondly by doing combination forecasts in races where you think your selections are overpriced. Of course you can only do this with 365 because they are the only bookmakers who offer guaranteed prices on forecasts and only last week i had three forecasts that paid way over the industry forecast dividend including one that paid £40 pound with bet 365 while the industry forecast for the same race was just over £10 of course it goes without say that you have to know your dogs and you must be selective with your bets to make it work
What about backing a horse inplay when the odds increase or backing the draw in soccer after the 1st goal goes in. Is that value betting?
Value is in line with true probability. Not so much to do with some kind of arbitrary action like time or shortening. It could be either and still be value.
I'm gonna be the devil's advocate here. If you are using exchange prices to gauge the true probabiliy of an outcome then guess what, so are the bookies! Exploit their pricing a couple of times and it's back to those heartbreaking "I got restricted in a day" videos. If one wants to consistently make profits from betting, he must be able to beat exchange prices. That requires the ability to accurately estimate true odds of an outcome on their own, without the help of the exchanges. And that's bloody difficult.
That's true and fair in many ways, up until the bit about needing to accurately estimate true odds. Why put all that effort into guessing the true odds when you can just know the true odds, and then know the reasons as to when, where and why the price will change. It's at least a 100x easier, trust me :)
@@CaanBerryProTrader Hi Caan. Just to clarify, I was talking about straight punting as that is what the example in the video is about. This is very different from trading where you are not concerned with actual value per se, but rather what the others think the value is. A trader will back a donkey into odds on if the others are doing the same, while a shrewd punter will be laying of course.
@@CaanBerryProTrader but you said the true odds are at the start of a race or match, how you know the reasons when and where the price will change then? you would need to know that a bit before the start to be able to put a profitable trade?
trying to be productive, can i ask if paid courses would teach one to Know the true odds, and then know the reasons as to when, where and why the price will change!! (or does that come with experience) maybe a ridiculous question as so many unknowns!
How much do you charge for one to one tuition over facetime ? Per hour say ?
Not available right now, although it would be in the region of £500 + VAT
@@CaanBerryProTrader Sound. In the autumn I will probably go for it.
Do you bet or making these videos for money on UA-cam? Because I think making money from betting is way easier and huge if you can prove how effective your methods are...
#Laser
Are you serious? I quit my job to trade sports odds a decade ago, and have never looked back. A byproduct of that was the worlds largest sports exchange sponsoring me to help educate their other customers on use etc, which is where this channel began. It's not a job when you do what you enjoy, plus the ad revenue on this channel is so low it's not even a factor! See the video about it...
@@CaanBerryProTrader Give us games to win then...
Thanks Caan you make it look so easy .
Thanks but this is just an explainer to show you how, doesn't actually show it being done. Just theory :)
Can you contact me? I can make you some money I can help u a lot mate
My advice don’t even gamble look for a different way to make to make money, sports betting has been horrible for me
Indeed, u gotta very smart with it to build up a bankroll and not lose out on it, better choose a game like poker then which requires some skills but even taht I wouldn't recommend, gambling is addictive as well.
Sorry to hear that. Not everyone can be winners! And like many other things (forex etc) the majority lose.
I still don’t understand how you identify value. Surely it’s opinion based!? As long as you pick winners, you good… but your advice (professional I know) says it’s not about the nuances of the wager. Trying to learn but hard switching from heart betting punter to methodical patient expert
Still not understanding what you mean by finding true odds. Im a bit lost to be honest. Im a big fan of yours but i need a better understanding.
True odds is the odds that are reflective of the probable chance. For example the flip of a coin's true odds is evens, because there is an even chance of the flip, just 2 equal outcomes, heads or tails. 50%.
@UGot FactedOn thanks for responding. But in dont have a model or even software to do that comparison. So a clear explanation of how i can identify true odds would be more helpful.
Great video!
Thanks.
On a Saturday with full list of football fixtures I like to bet on both teams to score yes with odds of evens or above that way I usually always make a healthy profit
Do you just choose the games with odds of evens or above randomly or do you look into both of the teams' match history (for example if both teams score often in other games they have played)?
Just look at the odds evens or better hard atm due to lack of fixtures
My friend and I live together but for some reason the only way we can use Caesars is on one computer, hence one IP. We only bet the minimum and don’t go ape with huge bets. Do you think they’ll figure it out, or even care, that we’re on the same computer?
In the states they don't care much now, but they certainly will do in a year or so time. Make the most of it and take the value now. Would advise seeing the system video we uploaded last week for US markets.
I bet on goals and corners !
Cool. But where's the edge?
I like to look at a horse when they come on the track during the post parade and how they look, that gives me a yes or no pick
"Probabili'y"
Lol! I've realised most English people do that😂😂
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
i can tell you now if i put a bet on the higher 3 , 4 dollars on tennis you 99percent chance of losing
Hi Caan, I get all your saying but what’s the best and fastest way to find a bookie who is offering value say a horse in the last few minutes before the off, as I expect the opportunity would likely only last seconds, is there a way to see the exchange and bookies odds on the same screen for example? cheers. Mike
Yes it's possible.
Caan Berry Pro Trader thanks for reply but how ?