11:00. I'm not sure what the validity of London data at 1,500 metres (higher than Ben Nevis) is when London is significantly closer to sea level, the highest point is only 245 metres above sea level. Am i missing something?
Yes you are, 1500 metres is the level where the air pressure is at 850hpa, so it is well above sea level. This is the level in the atmosphere used to determine airmass I.e a cold or mild one for example at this time of year if it’s 5 degrees at 1500 metres it’s a mild airmass however if it’s -5 degrees at 1500 metres it’s a rather cold airmass. At this height above sea there is barely any diurnal differences in temperature so it is the ideal level to pick out air masses and differentiate between different air masses.
Just to add to the comments by @jordandavies9591 : It’s high enough to avoid being influenced by surface features such as land, sea, and urban heat islands. There are also specific forecasting examples; for instance, it’s possible for 2 meter temperatures (the ones we experience) in the winter months to be very low (below 0°C) while 850 hPa temperatures are well above 0°C. This is known as a temperature inversion because temperatures rise (rather than fall, as is normal) as you go higher. You might then ask, "So what?" The answer is that although it is very cold at the surface, any precipitation that falls is extremely likely (there are exceptions) to be either rain or freezing rain regardless.
@ just put the bin out and nearly slipped on some thick ice on part of our patio that is in shade all winter. We got to 8’C allegedly today but I think there will still be little patches of ice tomorrow. Thanks for your great videos by the way. Have encouraged a few FB friends to subscribe and keep ahead of the forecasts we get from the risk-averse BBC & Met Office!
The Met Office didn't rule it out in their ten day trend video but said an easterly developing next week is the least likely scenario. They've gone for an unsettled westerly influence for the second half of next week.
I suspect they could be talking about the cold plunge in North America firing up the jet stream across the Atlantic. I agree that more changeable weather is very possible and strong winds could develop at times during the second week.
My weather station is a Davis Vantage Pro 2. It's more expensive than many of the other weather stations available, but it is well built and modular. Therefore, if a part malfunctions it can usually (perhaps always - I’m not sure) be replaced easily. Mine has been running since 2005, though I’ve had to replace several of its components. As for other weather stations, I can't really say. There seem to be many options now, and I wonder if a lot of them are basically churned out of the same factory or factories, just branded and badged. I don't know. Nonetheless, I'm sure many of them will provide good service!
Why oh why is it not in the news that we exceeded worse case heating scenarios last year , and worse at a ever faster accelerating rate yet no one thinks its their job to spell out the enormity of the situation . Sorry to rant just came from a latest climate statistics post ...
In these forecasts I focus on the UK weather prospects during the next 2 weeks, sometimes referencing recent climatology. I know from comments and feedback that some people think I push the warming angle whilst others (perhaps you) suggest I don't mention it enough.
It's not always the case, but often when the cold comes via high pressure blocking to the west / northwest it is the north which sees the most snow. There are exceptions of course, especially if disturbances push up from the southwest and don't track too far north.
How do you mean "follow GFS"? I use it for the animations at the beginning. I then switch to UKV (or other if appropriate which is sometimes GFS, e.g. > 120 hours which is the limit of UKV) for the surface forecast charts during week 1. For the precipitation I use ECM and GFS, then follow with GFS, GEM, ICON, ECM, ECM AIFS and UK Met Global for a deterministic model overview. I also sometimes (in this video actually) use MOGREPS-G. For week 2 I use GEFS and ECM ENS primarily. Personally, I think that's more than enough!
Thankyou Brian.I am so glad its turned much milder now.I hate cold,ice and snow.
Thanks Brian, interesting synoptics
Great video, thanks for the analysis! One to keep an eye on for next week 👍
Thanks for watching!
If's but's and maybe's, we shall see, one to keep an eye on cheers Brian.
Absolutely!
THANKS BRIA , LOVE SNOW ❄ ❤ 👍
Fingers crossed for you!
Great vid Brain. Yep Scandi high v good for potential snow for me in Suffolk, the East and the South. Could be most significant since 2018 beast
A long way to go before we can say that I think!
11:00. I'm not sure what the validity of London data at 1,500 metres (higher than Ben Nevis) is when London is significantly closer to sea level, the highest point is only 245 metres above sea level. Am i missing something?
Yes you are, 1500 metres is the level where the air pressure is at 850hpa, so it is well above sea level. This is the level in the atmosphere used to determine airmass I.e a cold or mild one for example at this time of year if it’s 5 degrees at 1500 metres it’s a mild airmass however if it’s -5 degrees at 1500 metres it’s a rather cold airmass.
At this height above sea there is barely any diurnal differences in temperature so it is the ideal level to pick out air masses and differentiate between different air masses.
Just to add to the comments by @jordandavies9591 : It’s high enough to avoid being influenced by surface features such as land, sea, and urban heat islands.
There are also specific forecasting examples; for instance, it’s possible for 2 meter temperatures (the ones we experience) in the winter months to be very low (below 0°C) while 850 hPa temperatures are well above 0°C. This is known as a temperature inversion because temperatures rise (rather than fall, as is normal) as you go higher. You might then ask, "So what?" The answer is that although it is very cold at the surface, any precipitation that falls is extremely likely (there are exceptions) to be either rain or freezing rain regardless.
Sussex. One of highest points in the county. We still have some snow on ground and icy stretched on paths 6 days after snow started to fall.
That's quite impressive actually.
@ just put the bin out and nearly slipped on some thick ice on part of our patio that is in shade all winter. We got to 8’C allegedly today but I think there will still be little patches of ice tomorrow. Thanks for your great videos by the way. Have encouraged a few FB friends to subscribe and keep ahead of the forecasts we get from the risk-averse BBC & Met Office!
@richardblakey3345 Thanks, more subscribers would be very welcome.
The Met Office didn't rule it out in their ten day trend video but said an easterly developing next week is the least likely scenario. They've gone for an unsettled westerly influence for the second half of next week.
Gut feel says we will end up with some cold zonality or transient northerly shots
That's a possibility, but to me there seems to be less mobility across the North Atlantic.
Other channels talking about polar vortex powering up the jet stream and bringing stormy weather to UK in last third of January
I suspect they could be talking about the cold plunge in North America firing up the jet stream across the Atlantic. I agree that more changeable weather is very possible and strong winds could develop at times during the second week.
Interesting forecast Brian.Do you think the east of the UK will get snow in the next 2 weeks?
Thanking You
Hazel.
Much too early to say! However, if we get a Scandinavian high pressure and easterly flow the chance of snow showers would increase in the east.
Really enjoy the channel Brian
I’m looking at getting a weather station, any recommendations, I’m looking at Ventus W830..
My weather station is a Davis Vantage Pro 2. It's more expensive than many of the other weather stations available, but it is well built and modular. Therefore, if a part malfunctions it can usually (perhaps always - I’m not sure) be replaced easily. Mine has been running since 2005, though I’ve had to replace several of its components.
As for other weather stations, I can't really say. There seem to be many options now, and I wonder if a lot of them are basically churned out of the same factory or factories, just branded and badged. I don't know. Nonetheless, I'm sure many of them will provide good service!
@ Thanks Brian
Once again, no snow this winter where I am in Dundee!
Where is the snow 🌨️❄️
We will see what happens.
As ever in the UK.
Ah beast fea the east is coming back 25 th 26th for 5 days 🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶😶🌫️😶🌫️😶🌫️😶🌫️😊
Good
Thanks
Imagine if a SSW occurred now and the Scandinavian high stared feeding us cold East winds then the SSW kept the high going for weeks.
Love reading your comment
February 1986 was sub-zero CET with a predominantly easterly flow but there was wasn't an SSW.
the modles are thrashing all over the place
I think they've done pretty well on the whole in recent weeks. That said, it's always very difficult with Scandinavian blocks.
Cold zonality, me thinks. A bit like in January 1984.
Can u discuss sunshine. Going on about the same old thing. So slow.
Why oh why is it not in the news that we exceeded worse case heating scenarios last year , and worse at a ever faster accelerating rate yet no one thinks its their job to spell out the enormity of the situation . Sorry to rant just came from a latest climate statistics post ...
meanwhile the UK not the case so keep the global chatter out of the UK outlook.
In these forecasts I focus on the UK weather prospects during the next 2 weeks, sometimes referencing recent climatology. I know from comments and feedback that some people think I push the warming angle whilst others (perhaps you) suggest I don't mention it enough.
Same old story for the south!
It's not always the case, but often when the cold comes via high pressure blocking to the west / northwest it is the north which sees the most snow. There are exceptions of course, especially if disturbances push up from the southwest and don't track too far north.
Why do you follow GFS I don’t rate it at all … it’s keep over exposing nothing .. ECM is lot better for this country
How do you mean "follow GFS"? I use it for the animations at the beginning. I then switch to UKV (or other if appropriate which is sometimes GFS, e.g. > 120 hours which is the limit of UKV) for the surface forecast charts during week 1. For the precipitation I use ECM and GFS, then follow with GFS, GEM, ICON, ECM, ECM AIFS and UK Met Global for a deterministic model overview. I also sometimes (in this video actually) use MOGREPS-G. For week 2 I use GEFS and ECM ENS primarily. Personally, I think that's more than enough!
Another weat year again just you tube the Dimming says it all
Such boring forecast....
Oh another wrong forcast. Seriously. Why bother? Actually. Tell us all why you do it.
Can you provide more details on what you consider to be wrong? It is of course a forecast not a certainty.
Tell us all why it’s wrong?