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Absolutely - Anna is the about FACTS and is able to distill them in a way that sets her apart from the rest. She's not talking her book or toeing a party line. She's the clearest thinker and communicator out there.
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure???? I've never seen this in my life. They adjust numbers up to a year later????? The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop. The only "soft patch" is the one in her head. There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite. Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000. This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved. There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
Wow, she was an excellent guest. Just phenomenal to hear her articulate so many well-founded views. Please bring her on again before the end of the year.
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure???? I've never seen this in my life. They adjust numbers up to a year later????? The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop. The only "soft patch" is the one in her head. There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite. Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000. This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved. There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
It's absolutely amazing with Anna! She disects economic realities(history) better than 99%. She is the most boring, objective, historically-versed, pragmatic, bipartisan, and just plain champion of data history. She simply sees a bigger picture of data( across time )without being corrupted. She is special
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure???? I've never seen this in my life. They adjust numbers up to a year later????? The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop. The only "soft patch" is the one in her head. There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite. Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000. This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved. There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure???? I've never seen this in my life. They adjust numbers up to a year later????? The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop. The only "soft patch" is the one in her head. There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite. Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000. This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved. There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
Professor Anna explains macroeconomics like no others. Fed is way way behind is all I need to know. Cannot emphasize enough how important it is to have Anna back every time near FED meeting. Please bring her back more often.
Anna is the best! One of my favorite for sure! Started to read Bloomberg again because of her. Thanks David to have her again! Wish her audio is better, lol!
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure???? I've never seen this in my life. They adjust numbers up to a year later????? The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop. The only "soft patch" is the one in her head. There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite. Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000. This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved. There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure???? I've never seen this in my life. They adjust numbers up to a year later????? The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop. The only "soft patch" is the one in her head. There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite. Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000. This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved. There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
What a great guest thanks David! Have her back again please. So much incredible,concise, clear data and delivered in a way the average Joe can download it.
Yeah they don’t want to look like they underestimated inflation again. It’s an ego thing. Unfortunately they’re screwing over first time home buyers and exacerbating the national debt. The economy isn’t wrecked yet but on its way and we know factually their rate policy changes in 2022 took 2 years to take effect so it’s very likely it’ll be at least a year or two before their easing stops the job market from weakening.
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure???? I've never seen this in my life. They adjust numbers up to a year later????? The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop. The only "soft patch" is the one in her head. There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite. Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000. This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved. There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
The fed has an unspoken underlying mandate: to enrich its shareholders as much as possible and allow it to still achieve its secondary surface mandates.
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure???? I've never seen this in my life. They adjust numbers up to a year later????? The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop. The only "soft patch" is the one in her head. There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite. Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000. This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved. There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure???? I've never seen this in my life. They adjust numbers up to a year later????? The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop. The only "soft patch" is the one in her head. There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite. Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000. This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved. There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure???? I've never seen this in my life. They adjust numbers up to a year later????? The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop. The only "soft patch" is the one in her head. There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite. Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000. This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved. There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
Honestly i can't believe how broke people are i own a dealership and have friends with businesses most people are just burying themselves in debt i lived through bad economies but its extremely bad now
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure???? I've never seen this in my life. They adjust numbers up to a year later????? The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop. The only "soft patch" is the one in her head. There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite. Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000. This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved. There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure???? I've never seen this in my life. They adjust numbers up to a year later????? The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop. The only "soft patch" is the one in her head. There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite. Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000. This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved. There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
Anna is brilliant. Straight forward, crystal clear, and absolutely no B/S. And as always, David knows how to ask the most important questions. I enjoyed this interview so much that I am convinced this one has pushed the bar of financial interviews at least 10% higher. Well done, David.
Anna is brilliant and inspiring. I imagine that one day, when she’s ready to use simpler language, she will be able to reach and benefit an even larger audience!
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure???? I've never seen this in my life. They adjust numbers up to a year later????? The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop. The only "soft patch" is the one in her head. There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite. Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000. This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved. There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure???? I've never seen this in my life. They adjust numbers up to a year later????? The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop. The only "soft patch" is the one in her head. There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite. Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000. This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved. There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure???? I've never seen this in my life. They adjust numbers up to a year later????? The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop. The only "soft patch" is the one in her head. There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite. Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000. This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved. There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
Prior to the Sept 6th BLS report, the household survey unemployment rate was looking like it was on the cusp of going parabolic, which it does every recession. The September print was a bit of a reprieve, but the trend May 2024 -> Aug 2024 is still pretty frightening. Going by historical downturns and the shape of the unemployment rate over the last 18 months, I think the most responsible prediction given the current data is 6-7% unemployment rate by Christmas 2025.
So many small businesses have shuttered. I live in SF and it’s crazy how many businesses have closed. All those people can’t be driving for Uber. I’d say the true unemployment figure is scary. When people become long term unemployed they kind of disappear from society.
@@prolific1518 You do realize there are only three prints between now and Christmas, right? So after a bunch of 0.1% and 0.2% increases in the last few months you're predicting three 0.5%+ increases in a row? Sounds wild.
@@petefraser3013 Yea I don't trust the numbers that they're telling us. The unemployment data was beginning to spike up, so they conveniently "revise" it down. It seems we're already in a recession
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure???? I've never seen this in my life. They adjust numbers up to a year later????? The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop. The only "soft patch" is the one in her head. There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite. Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000. This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved. There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
I'm of the same opinion as Anna. I just can't square the flashing yellow signs as well as the trajectory of the current data, and I also can't think of anything that would cause the economy to stop slowing, a few rate cuts aren't going to be immediately felt. The Fed is data dependent, but if their data is lagging, then they would make a policy mistake, just as they usually do (historically speaking). What would our economy look like without government spending creating jobs or subsidizing industries like healthcare? It's an interesting thought. Regardless of whether someone who is optimistic or pessimistic is right, the next 6-12 months are going to be very interesting.
It's the same old story... A WSJ article from October 2007 claimed that the US economy was too resilient to fall into recession. A few weeks later, the markets peaked and the recession began two months later. There's already a lot of pain out there. I agree, I don't see how the Fed could reverse things... the snowball effect is already well underway (unemployment, bankruptcies, lower manufacturing, highest debt levels in history, lowest savings levels, credit card companies are doing great, Affirm (alternate payment service) is doing great because credit cards are full, Walmart is doing great because folks can't afford to go to better stores, etc.)
@@rioriggs3568 True, I saw Yellen saying how great the economy is right now. If we are about to enter a recession, we're definitely going to look back at her comments in specific imo. Even Powell has tempered his optimism, he doesn't really use the term "soft landing" as much anymore, he's well aware that things are up in the air and volatile. I wish them luck, but their track record on soft landing is not great (though I don't blame them, you can't predict the future when you have lagging data points).
@@rioriggs3568 all I have to do is look around. In San Francisco so many stores and small businesses are shuttered. SF is a rich city and still restaurants are closing week after week. Is that a sign of a good economy. I can remember 2015-2019, the city was buzzing, now it’s pretty dead. I’m a business owner and resident of 20 years and I can just tell that things are slow for the businesses that remain. Is anyone else seeing this in their locality?
@@petefraser3013 I'm in Montreal, I went out downtown last weekend and several restaurants were closed on a Friday evening. I don't remember ever seeing that. I read an article this week claiming that a million restaurants in China had gone bankrupt.
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure???? I've never seen this in my life. They adjust numbers up to a year later????? The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop. The only "soft patch" is the one in her head. There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite. Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000. This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved. There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure???? I've never seen this in my life. They adjust numbers up to a year later????? The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop. The only "soft patch" is the one in her head. There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite. Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000. This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved. There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
So why are markets surging, if less people consuming their product, shouldn't stock prices drop due to earning reductions, at some point speculation evaporates
While calculating unemployment you want to include illegal immigrants, so for calculating consumer spending they need be included too since they are receiving free cheques
David, your hair looks really messy today! That's great. I especially like the wild rooster tail you have and the hair hanging into your right eye. Ditch any combs or brushes that you might own!
If payrolls have been negative since April, then why does consumer spending keep rocketing higher and higher every single month? Where are all these unemployed people getting all this money to increase spending every month????????
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure???? I've never seen this in my life. They adjust numbers up to a year later????? The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop. The only "soft patch" is the one in her head. There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite. Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000. This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved. There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
The idea that mass immigration is thought to drive unemployment down and keep GDP growing, but actually ends up driving unemployment up is so ironic. I'm sure it's even worse now that the US government is giving them our tax dollars. Give people money and they'll just do nothing and happily take the cash
I've been monitoring construction payrolls, and the divergence from permits tells me that they have bad permit data. Anna mentioned the 7-month lag, i.e., time from pulled permit to completed house, but permits fell off two years ago. They're missing a critical piece of data, and it's canceled permits.
The classical economists beginning with Adam Smith identified the economic rents (unearned income) extracted by feudal lords as the problem preventing a free market that the government should solve. The neoliberal (Austrian, Libertarian, Chicago School Monetarist) counter-enlightenment led by the super wealthy was to not acknowledge any such problem. “Lemmings are those misled by rentier capitalism. As more and more income and wealth flows to the plutocracy, elite and salariat in the form of rent, the mass of people increasingly struggle to afford a decent life. Political representatives of the system producing their immiseration say the fault lies with foreigners, migrants or minorities, at whom their rage should be directed, diverting attention from the structural causes. And as of now, political parties and their leaders have not provided a counter-narrative, let alone a strategy for dismantling rentier capitalism. No wonder many lemmings are drowning.” Standing, Guy. The Corruption of Capitalism: Why rentiers thrive and work does not pay (p 31) "The classical idea of a free market was one free FROM economic rent, not free for landlords, monopolists and creditors to charge whatever they wanted without reference to the cost of production. To repeat, the 19th century’s classical economics was all about value, price and rent theory, defining rent as the excess of prices above the socially necessary costs of production. The idea was to minimize rent, not maximize it." Michael Hudson. The Destiny of Civilization (Kindle Locations 736-740). "Rentiers derive income from ownership, possession or control of assets that are scarce or artificially made scarce. Most familiar is rental income from land, property, mineral exploitation or financial investments, but other sources have grown too. They include the income lenders gain from debt interest; income from ownership of ‘intellectual property’ (such as patents, copyright, brands and trademarks); capital gains on investments; ‘above normal’ company profits (when a firm has a dominant market position that allows it to charge high prices or dictate terms); income from government subsidies; and income of financial and other intermediaries derived from third-party transactions." Standing, Guy. The Corruption of Capitalism: Why rentiers thrive and work does not pay (p. 94).
What a sweet guest. You should try to get Logan Mohtashami or Mike Simonson for housing. I don’t think anybody has better data on housing than these guys. Great interview as always.
5:06 She is being a little misleading here. Job losers not on temporary layoffs make up 37.31% of the increase in the unemployed this YTD for 2024 while Job leavers, Re-entrants, and new entrants make up 60.45%. Now out of job losers not on temporary layoffs, it can be split into permanent job losers, which make up 17.12% of the increase in the unemployed, and persons who completed temporary work, which make up 20.19% of the increase in the unemployed. So only 17.12% of the increase in the unemployed can be attributed to permanent job losers. And in fact temporary layoffs had a huge huge spike in July of 249K and then fell by 190K in August. So that spike from in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.3% was like 70% because of a rise of in temporary layoffs and another 20% because of a huge spike of 103K in people quitting their jobs and the rest from everything else.
In a recession unemployment rises. It's normal. Consider too if 5% are unemployed there will be 90-95% working. Bad for 5%, but good for 90-95%. Not so bad after all unless you are in the 5%, but this happens during each "R". It is normal. Good guest thank you both.
@@prolific1518 It is a "mechanism" and part of something larger. If it is such an issue why has it not been ended? Because it is accepted as just part of the solution. Not pleasant, but how the system works.
Then why is everyone panicking over unemployment if it's no biggy? Answer - This incompetent admin is deficit spending 6 to 10% of GDP generating 1 to 3% GDP growth. Business activity falls by a couple of percent, as would be indicated by a small rise in unemployment and GDP goes negative. On the video.. A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure???? I've never seen this in my life. They adjust numbers up to a year later????? The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop. The only "soft patch" is the one in her head. There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite. Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000. This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved. There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
All I know is when an Asian that works in accounting and/or finance talks, y'all better listen. Also, don't race an Asian in a Honda Civic. You're going to lose, I don't care how many Hemis you got.
While a recession is inevitable, I think people are jumping the gun. This was the case after SVB and at the start of 2024 when the market had 7 rate cuts priced for 2024. Yes, the labor market is the key. It was way too strong even in 2022 when everyone was calling for an economic crash. Today it has weakened significantly but layoffs are still at the lows. Until layoffs start to rise, recession ain't happening... There is no significant reason layoffs should spike higher here. Credit spreads are tight, corporate earnings are fine.
If a statistic is consistently undershot versus reality, it is incompetence of the statisticians. Or intentional manipulation. Otherwise, the statistic would randomly overshoot and undershoot.
Exactly. A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure???? I've never seen this in my life. They adjust numbers up to a year later????? The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop. The only "soft patch" is the one in her head. There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite. Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000. This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved. There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
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You have got to bring Anna back. You get the straight goods: what is happening and why. No ambiguity.
Agree. Great analysis. No BS.
Absolutely - Anna is the about FACTS and is able to distill them in a way that sets her apart from the rest. She's not talking her book or toeing a party line. She's the clearest thinker and communicator out there.
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure????
I've never seen this in my life.
They adjust numbers up to a year later?????
The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop.
The only "soft patch" is the one in her head.
There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite.
Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000.
This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved.
There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
Wow, she was an excellent guest. Just phenomenal to hear her articulate so many well-founded views. Please bring her on again before the end of the year.
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure????
I've never seen this in my life.
They adjust numbers up to a year later?????
The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop.
The only "soft patch" is the one in her head.
There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite.
Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000.
This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved.
There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
It's absolutely amazing with Anna! She disects economic realities(history) better than 99%. She is the most boring, objective, historically-versed, pragmatic, bipartisan, and just plain champion of data history. She simply sees a bigger picture of data( across time )without being corrupted. She is special
❤
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure????
I've never seen this in my life.
They adjust numbers up to a year later?????
The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop.
The only "soft patch" is the one in her head.
There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite.
Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000.
This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved.
There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
Anna is the goat for macro
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure????
I've never seen this in my life.
They adjust numbers up to a year later?????
The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop.
The only "soft patch" is the one in her head.
There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite.
Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000.
This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved.
There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
Professor Anna explains macroeconomics like no others. Fed is way way behind is all I need to know. Cannot emphasize enough how important it is to have Anna back every time near FED meeting. Please bring her back more often.
Anna is the best! One of my favorite for sure! Started to read Bloomberg again because of her. Thanks David to have her again! Wish her audio is better, lol!
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure????
I've never seen this in my life.
They adjust numbers up to a year later?????
The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop.
The only "soft patch" is the one in her head.
There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite.
Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000.
This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved.
There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
The hardest working host on UA-cam! Love the show!
Anna is brilliant. Please invite her back soon. Best Eco macro I have seen recently.
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure????
I've never seen this in my life.
They adjust numbers up to a year later?????
The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop.
The only "soft patch" is the one in her head.
There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite.
Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000.
This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved.
There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
Thanks for letting her speak David.
Anna is soooo knowledgeable about global economics.
That cable running under that poor guys chair right through the center of his desk must drive him absolutely nuts, surely theres a better way.
not a cable
@@Nonybusinessxxxxxx your right it does look like a joint. Still a PITA but Id take that over a cable anyday :)
It’s a carpet-to-stone floor transition, not a cable.
What a great guest thanks David! Have her back again please. So much incredible,concise, clear data and delivered in a way the average Joe can download it.
The FED is too late, on purpose.
Yeah they don’t want to look like they underestimated inflation again. It’s an ego thing. Unfortunately they’re screwing over first time home buyers and exacerbating the national debt. The economy isn’t wrecked yet but on its way and we know factually their rate policy changes in 2022 took 2 years to take effect so it’s very likely it’ll be at least a year or two before their easing stops the job market from weakening.
This is about bringing private equity (shadow banking)to its knees,sadly we have to suffer for this cute little strategy
And to assert that government agencies are “apolitical” is laughable.
@@scoby41🎭
This girl is awesome!!! Really knows her stuff!
Ms. Wong is brilliant. So well-spoken, clear and to the point.
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure????
I've never seen this in my life.
They adjust numbers up to a year later?????
The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop.
The only "soft patch" is the one in her head.
There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite.
Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000.
This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved.
There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
She is absolutely brilliant!!
Her depth of knowledge on the numbers, how they are generated, how they might change and what they portend is excellent.
The Fed should stop bailing out the stock market 🐖.
The fed has an unspoken underlying mandate: to enrich its shareholders as much as possible and allow it to still achieve its secondary surface mandates.
Great guest! I have heard her mentioned by her commodity colleague, Mike many times. It’s nice to hear her speak… Thank you.
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure????
I've never seen this in my life.
They adjust numbers up to a year later?????
The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop.
The only "soft patch" is the one in her head.
There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite.
Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000.
This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved.
There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
One of your best guests
Terrific interview. Need Anna regularly.
Best guest in a while
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure????
I've never seen this in my life.
They adjust numbers up to a year later?????
The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop.
The only "soft patch" is the one in her head.
There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite.
Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000.
This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved.
There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
Keep it up David!! 👊🏽I also think you and Anna are great together!
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure????
I've never seen this in my life.
They adjust numbers up to a year later?????
The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop.
The only "soft patch" is the one in her head.
There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite.
Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000.
This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved.
There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
Congrats. Very knowledgable guest.
Honestly i can't believe how broke people are i own a dealership and have friends with businesses most people are just burying themselves in debt i lived through bad economies but its extremely bad now
I own a dealership and bus is down 70%, as bad or worse than the 2008-12 slowdown...already.
@@stevesovring9725it's bad its not gonna get better anytime soon either unfortunately
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure????
I've never seen this in my life.
They adjust numbers up to a year later?????
The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop.
The only "soft patch" is the one in her head.
There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite.
Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000.
This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved.
There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
Anna is top tier talent, great stuff 👍
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure????
I've never seen this in my life.
They adjust numbers up to a year later?????
The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop.
The only "soft patch" is the one in her head.
There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite.
Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000.
This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved.
There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
Anna is brilliant. Straight forward, crystal clear, and absolutely no B/S. And as always, David knows how to ask the most important questions. I enjoyed this interview so much that I am convinced this one has pushed the bar of financial interviews at least 10% higher. Well done, David.
Anna is brilliant and inspiring. I imagine that one day, when she’s ready to use simpler language, she will be able to reach and benefit an even larger audience!
Yeah this was a really good video. would like Anna to be a regular like Prof Hanke
Anna is the best!
She is awesome!
Such an interesting two! Wonderful analysis, superbly presented, very helpful, thank you.
I agree with her view completely. So nicely explained, thank you Anna
5% isn't doom and gloom. It's still reasonable.
If she sees a deep recession as the highest probability, then the unemployment rate will most likely far surpass 5%.
Yeah it's going to be more like 20% to 30% and a depression.
lol. As long it’s not your job
@@thomasallen1951 same if it's at 3%
These are stats from manipulated data. Employment data is often revised to negative growth long after markets have gained from false data reports.
Agree with Anna's assessment. Thank you both.
Great guest. Seemed very rational
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure????
I've never seen this in my life.
They adjust numbers up to a year later?????
The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop.
The only "soft patch" is the one in her head.
There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite.
Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000.
This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved.
There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
Great interview and Anna explains complex data in a way that my small brain can comprehend!!!! Awesome video
Small brain 😂
@@airbourne2 he means like me , 😅
poor English skill
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure????
I've never seen this in my life.
They adjust numbers up to a year later?????
The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop.
The only "soft patch" is the one in her head.
There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite.
Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000.
This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved.
There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
Amazing guest, thank you
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure????
I've never seen this in my life.
They adjust numbers up to a year later?????
The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop.
The only "soft patch" is the one in her head.
There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite.
Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000.
This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved.
There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
Thank you David. This interview is good. Concise and informative.
Anna delivers straight dope with zero hype. Listen up.
Prior to the Sept 6th BLS report, the household survey unemployment rate was looking like it was on the cusp of going parabolic, which it does every recession. The September print was a bit of a reprieve, but the trend May 2024 -> Aug 2024 is still pretty frightening. Going by historical downturns and the shape of the unemployment rate over the last 18 months, I think the most responsible prediction given the current data is 6-7% unemployment rate by Christmas 2025.
So many small businesses have shuttered. I live in SF and it’s crazy how many businesses have closed. All those people can’t be driving for Uber. I’d say the true unemployment figure is scary.
When people become long term unemployed they kind of disappear from society.
We'll be at 6% by Christmas this year
@@prolific1518 You do realize there are only three prints between now and Christmas, right? So after a bunch of 0.1% and 0.2% increases in the last few months you're predicting three 0.5%+ increases in a row? Sounds wild.
@@petefraser3013 Yea I don't trust the numbers that they're telling us. The unemployment data was beginning to spike up, so they conveniently "revise" it down. It seems we're already in a recession
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure????
I've never seen this in my life.
They adjust numbers up to a year later?????
The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop.
The only "soft patch" is the one in her head.
There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite.
Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000.
This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved.
There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
I'm of the same opinion as Anna. I just can't square the flashing yellow signs as well as the trajectory of the current data, and I also can't think of anything that would cause the economy to stop slowing, a few rate cuts aren't going to be immediately felt. The Fed is data dependent, but if their data is lagging, then they would make a policy mistake, just as they usually do (historically speaking). What would our economy look like without government spending creating jobs or subsidizing industries like healthcare? It's an interesting thought. Regardless of whether someone who is optimistic or pessimistic is right, the next 6-12 months are going to be very interesting.
It's the same old story... A WSJ article from October 2007 claimed that the US economy was too resilient to fall into recession. A few weeks later, the markets peaked and the recession began two months later. There's already a lot of pain out there. I agree, I don't see how the Fed could reverse things... the snowball effect is already well underway (unemployment, bankruptcies, lower manufacturing, highest debt levels in history, lowest savings levels, credit card companies are doing great, Affirm (alternate payment service) is doing great because credit cards are full, Walmart is doing great because folks can't afford to go to better stores, etc.)
@@rioriggs3568 True, I saw Yellen saying how great the economy is right now. If we are about to enter a recession, we're definitely going to look back at her comments in specific imo. Even Powell has tempered his optimism, he doesn't really use the term "soft landing" as much anymore, he's well aware that things are up in the air and volatile. I wish them luck, but their track record on soft landing is not great (though I don't blame them, you can't predict the future when you have lagging data points).
@@rioriggs3568 all I have to do is look around. In San Francisco so many stores and small businesses are shuttered. SF is a rich city and still restaurants are closing week after week. Is that a sign of a good economy.
I can remember 2015-2019, the city was buzzing, now it’s pretty dead. I’m a business owner and resident of 20 years and I can just tell that things are slow for the businesses that remain.
Is anyone else seeing this in their locality?
@@petefraser3013 I'm in Montreal, I went out downtown last weekend and several restaurants were closed on a Friday evening. I don't remember ever seeing that. I read an article this week claiming that a million restaurants in China had gone bankrupt.
Great guest and information...thank you both.
Awesome video, very informational !
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure????
I've never seen this in my life.
They adjust numbers up to a year later?????
The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop.
The only "soft patch" is the one in her head.
There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite.
Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000.
This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved.
There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
Awesome guest
Anna is smart
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure????
I've never seen this in my life.
They adjust numbers up to a year later?????
The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop.
The only "soft patch" is the one in her head.
There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite.
Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000.
This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved.
There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
Wow she is insanely smart these are the answers I was looking for coming from me who believes 50/50 chance of recession
David burning the midnight oil. Good interview as always.
I love Anna! She is great.
LoL only 4.5% at the end of 2024 Unemployment. It will closer to 5%
Anna Wong A+++
Wow. Great guest!
So why are markets surging, if less people consuming their product, shouldn't stock prices drop due to earning reductions, at some point speculation evaporates
Because of print baby print. How can be otherwise in the endlessly increasing money supply environment?
If Kamala "gives" $25k to homebuyers, sellers can and will just increase their sell price by $25k to offset it.
If new homebuyers need 25k then it just means that they are not ready to buy a home. IMO
@@mariabravo5871
Very very very good point !
@@mariabravo5871or home prices are unsustainably high
Hence the crash comes into play. We're going to face it either way. Rate cuts or not.
While calculating unemployment you want to include illegal immigrants, so for calculating consumer spending they need be included too since they are receiving free cheques
The Famous Anna Wong
valuable interview!
Holy cow! How have I not heard her speak before? This was a great interview, scary as hell, but great.
Crazy how illegal immigration is now counted as unemployment.. 😂 this economy is truly a joke.
David, I love the stubble! You're just so amazing!
I dont recall Trump saying he wanted to have a stronger dollar, I do recall Vance wanting a weaker dollar. Gonna have to look that up...
David, your hair looks really messy today! That's great. I especially like the wild rooster tail you have and the hair hanging into your right eye. Ditch any combs or brushes that you might own!
$25,000 for a down payment tax credit! I’m gonna go buy a house. 🤦🏽 houses are not at their true value. That’s the problem they need to drop by 50%.
If payrolls have been negative since April, then why does consumer spending keep rocketing higher and higher every single month? Where are all these unemployed people getting all this money to increase spending every month????????
Something has to break the camels back. Either the numbers are wrong about spending or the revisions. GDI has gone down too.
Wong is right.
Right is wong
4-5% unemployment is normal and good because it keeps wage increases in check. Keeps inflation in check.
LOL it's not going to be 4 ot 5%. More like real unemployment will be 20% to 30%.
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure????
I've never seen this in my life.
They adjust numbers up to a year later?????
The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop.
The only "soft patch" is the one in her head.
There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite.
Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000.
This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved.
There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
Makes me want to read Charlie Munger’s article on ‘febezzlement’ again. Great guest, David. Would love to see her more frequently.
The idea that mass immigration is thought to drive unemployment down and keep GDP growing, but actually ends up driving unemployment up is so ironic. I'm sure it's even worse now that the US government is giving them our tax dollars. Give people money and they'll just do nothing and happily take the cash
I lol'd when she said BOJ was talking about hiking during the election debates.
I agree, 50% chance it's already an active recession.
I've been monitoring construction payrolls, and the divergence from permits tells me that they have bad permit data. Anna mentioned the 7-month lag, i.e., time from pulled permit to completed house, but permits fell off two years ago. They're missing a critical piece of data, and it's canceled permits.
Excellent. Very smart. Great guest.
I can strangely listen to this woman all day. Good video.
She's saying jobs are negative and the FED is way behind but the stock market is nearing all time highs.
Endless printing of money supply, market reflects it.
She's absolutely brilliant. Must make her a regular on the show.
What a fantastic interview - I learned so much, especially how data is collected and reported out. Please have her on again in the future!!
main street knew labor market was bad way before wallstreet analysts
The classical economists beginning with Adam Smith identified the economic rents (unearned income) extracted by feudal lords as the problem preventing a free market that the government should solve. The neoliberal (Austrian, Libertarian, Chicago School Monetarist) counter-enlightenment led by the super wealthy was to not acknowledge any such problem.
“Lemmings are those misled by rentier capitalism. As more and more income and wealth flows to the plutocracy, elite and salariat in the form of rent, the mass of people increasingly struggle to afford a decent life. Political representatives of the system producing their immiseration say the fault lies with foreigners, migrants or minorities, at whom their rage should be directed, diverting attention from the structural causes. And as of now, political parties and their leaders have not provided a counter-narrative, let alone a strategy for dismantling rentier capitalism. No wonder many lemmings are drowning.”
Standing, Guy. The Corruption of Capitalism: Why rentiers thrive and work does not pay (p 31)
"The classical idea of a free market was one free FROM economic rent, not free for landlords, monopolists and creditors to charge whatever they wanted without reference to the cost of production. To repeat, the 19th century’s classical economics was all about value, price and rent theory, defining rent as the excess of prices above the socially necessary costs of production. The idea was to minimize rent, not maximize it."
Michael Hudson. The Destiny of Civilization (Kindle Locations 736-740).
"Rentiers derive income from ownership, possession or control of assets that are scarce or artificially made scarce. Most familiar is rental income from land, property, mineral exploitation or financial investments, but other sources have grown too. They include the income lenders gain from debt interest; income from ownership of ‘intellectual property’ (such as patents, copyright, brands and trademarks); capital gains on investments; ‘above normal’ company profits (when a firm has a dominant market position that allows it to charge high prices or dictate terms); income from government subsidies; and income of financial and other intermediaries derived from third-party transactions."
Standing, Guy. The Corruption of Capitalism: Why rentiers thrive and work does not pay (p. 94).
She is a keeper David
Anna is amazing,
Excellent interview! Thanks.
What a sweet guest. You should try to get Logan Mohtashami or Mike Simonson for housing. I don’t think anybody has better data on housing than these guys. Great interview as always.
Healthcare jobs are simply govt jobs. The govt is the main payor in healthcare by far.
Great show she is great
All I heard was "buy Gold" or something like that...excellent guest!
She is so knowledgeable and clear in her analysis.
5:06 She is being a little misleading here. Job losers not on temporary layoffs make up 37.31% of the increase in the unemployed this YTD for 2024 while Job leavers, Re-entrants, and new entrants make up 60.45%. Now out of job losers not on temporary layoffs, it can be split into permanent job losers, which make up 17.12% of the increase in the unemployed, and persons who completed temporary work, which make up 20.19% of the increase in the unemployed. So only 17.12% of the increase in the unemployed can be attributed to permanent job losers. And in fact temporary layoffs had a huge huge spike in July of 249K and then fell by 190K in August. So that spike from in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.3% was like 70% because of a rise of in temporary layoffs and another 20% because of a huge spike of 103K in people quitting their jobs and the rest from everything else.
When ever i see an simple asian lady with a serene working background (not an influencer) , i listen, as good content will follow.
In a recession unemployment rises. It's normal. Consider too if 5% are unemployed there will be 90-95% working. Bad for 5%, but good for 90-95%. Not so bad after all unless you are in the 5%, but this happens during each "R". It is normal. Good guest thank you both.
You just exposed yourself for not knowing how unemployment works or what it represents.
@@prolific1518 It is a "mechanism" and part of something larger. If it is such an issue why has it not been ended? Because it is accepted as just part of the solution. Not pleasant, but how the system works.
@@kiyoshitakeda452 you're still wrong.
@@prolific1518 You wish!!
Then why is everyone panicking over unemployment if it's no biggy?
Answer - This incompetent admin is deficit spending 6 to 10% of GDP generating 1 to 3% GDP growth.
Business activity falls by a couple of percent, as would be indicated by a small rise in unemployment and GDP goes negative.
On the video..
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure????
I've never seen this in my life.
They adjust numbers up to a year later?????
The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop.
The only "soft patch" is the one in her head.
There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite.
Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000.
This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved.
There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.
Crash???!!!!🐻
As a kellogg Northwestern grad some of this is literally research I would expect from a junior analyst
Anna wong!
Anna Wong's prediction on housing is scary accurate. With construction payrolls cooling, how will this affect homeowners?
All I know is when an Asian that works in accounting and/or finance talks, y'all better listen. Also, don't race an Asian in a Honda Civic. You're going to lose, I don't care how many Hemis you got.
She had an interview last summer and said recession in Q4 2023. LOL. There we go again!!! 🤣🤣🤣🤣
While a recession is inevitable, I think people are jumping the gun. This was the case after SVB and at the start of 2024 when the market had 7 rate cuts priced for 2024.
Yes, the labor market is the key. It was way too strong even in 2022 when everyone was calling for an economic crash. Today it has weakened significantly but layoffs are still at the lows. Until layoffs start to rise, recession ain't happening... There is no significant reason layoffs should spike higher here. Credit spreads are tight, corporate earnings are fine.
I used to have hair... enjoy it while you can
I used to used to wear nappies... Enjoy it while you can.
Great interview, lovely guest thankyou.
If a statistic is consistently undershot versus reality, it is incompetence of the statisticians. Or intentional manipulation. Otherwise, the statistic would randomly overshoot and undershoot.
Exactly.
A nearly 1 million revision in jobs is just standard operating procedure????
I've never seen this in my life.
They adjust numbers up to a year later?????
The BLS has credibility???? No conspiracies here,.. just like there were no conspiracies with the hunterBribem laptop.
The only "soft patch" is the one in her head.
There is no over supply in housing,.. quite the opposite.
Giving $25,000 of tax payer money (ie providing more demand side stimulus) after they've already unnecessarily and unprecedentedly stolen and spent about $8 trillion tax payer dollar to buy votes putting us in this economic shithole, to fund home purchases will not reduce prices of homes or stimulate the economy. Builders are just going to raise prices by $25,000.
This is why college and healthcare are so expensive in the US,.. the government getting involved.
There needs to be incentives to expand supply and therefore reduce prices,.... not demand.