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I don’t know how but you’ve managed to package an unbiased analysis that is more entertaining than the sensationalized segment of economic and financial news. Thank you for your efforts to be the signal and not the noise. I understand that the economy is currently in a downturn and that we must wait for things to get better
I think the current market might give opportunities to maximize profit within a short term, but in order to execute such strategy , you must be a skilled practitioner
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
Even if you have a humongous income you still need to draw up futuristic plans because anything can happen. One could lose one's job or whatever. Investment cannot be overemphasized. About your advisor, how does one reach pls
My CFA ’Melissa Terri Swayne’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Appreciate this recommendation, hopefully I can get some insight to where the market is headed and strategies to beat the downtrend with when I hear back from Melissa.
I remember in 2007 when I was working in real estate seeing people buy homes new from builders with the intention of selling before close of escrow to a new buyer for profit. The crash was so brutal and fast that I remember seeing a lot of these units foreclosed on with the builder plastic still on the carpet.
Given that we are not used to such volatile markets, the fact that the US stock market has been on its longest bull run in history helps to explain the widespread fear and enthusiasm. There are chances if you know where to look, as you noted when I earned more than $780k in the prior ten months. I hired a portfolio advisor because I knew I would need a solid plan to get through these difficult times.
It was run by “Tenley Megan Amerson” , who I learned about and got in touch with thanks to a CNBC interview. Since then, it has served as the point of entry and departure for the games we have emphasized. A search on the internet can be done if tracking is necessary.
I just copied and paste ‘Jennifer whole name into my browser, and her website appeared right away. You've saved me several hours of arduous research, therefore I appreciate it.
Have you all caught wind of Monica 0:01 Mary 0:01 Strigle 0:01? Word is, she executed a successful short position on the Chinese Index, yielding an impressive 185% gain a 2wks ago.
Her approach involved an in-depth analysis of economic indicators, meticulous tracking of global trends, and identifying vulnerabilities in the Chinese market. She strategically executed short positions to capitalize on the anticipated downturn.
Absolutely. Strigle emphasized diversification within her portfolio and maintaining constant vigilance over market conditions. She also stayed attuned to geopolitical developments that could impact the Chinese market.
Given the persisting global economic crisis, it's essential for individuals to focus on diversifying their income streams independent of governmental reliance. This involves exploring options such as stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the adversity in the economy, now is an opportune moment to contemplate these investment avenues.
The attainment of substantial returns is not solely reliant on the volatility of high-performing stocks. It pertains more to the adept management of risk in conjunction with potential reward. Through astutely sizing your positions and consistently capitalizing on your strengths, you can steadily progress towards achieving your financial goals. This fundamental principle remains applicable across various investment methodologies, be it long-term investment approaches or day trading strategies.
Experienced long-term investors are aware that the market and economy have a tendency to bounce back over time, and it's wise for investors to be prepared for such a recovery. Speaking from my own experience, I continue to invest heavily in this volatile market and have achieved significant gains - my portfolio is presently up by 60%. For now, I'll keep a watchful eye on the situation and gradually invest in more stocks as opportunities arise.
How did you achieve it? @halimatanko... I been trying to stick with index funds. I feel this new interest rates hikes could crash this economy. I'm looking out for a better investing strategy, I have a lump sum that inflation is steady eating up.
Finding financial advisors like Colleen Janie Towe who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.
I think we are too obsessed about the economy crashing. In the right sense, the economy never crashes. It just undergoes cycles, and almost always recovers. So I really don't care what the predictions are. I just want to grow my portfolio. I read that people are pulling in massive profits despite the downturn. Any tips on how they do it?
The market will always recover. The goal is to find quality stocks with long term potential. It's hard for the average Joe to do this, because it involves following a lot of industry news, following up with earnings, etc. It's easier to invest through an advisor who knows how stuff works, and make rocket returns.
Investing in quality stocks with long-term potential is a good strategy, but it can be challenging for the average person to do this on their own. Keeping up with industry news and earnings can be time-consuming and difficult. That's why it's easier to work with an advisor who can help you make informed decisions and potentially achieve high returns.
Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.
This is not the first time China encountered economic difficulty. In fact, many time in the past. Given the big background of at or near the end of depressional phase of the 50-60 years of Kondratiev wave， the whole world is in big trouble economically, geopolitically, environmentally, etc. And surprisingly, when you COMPARE China with other countries around the world, China's performance just stands out remarkable. Not just looking at the current situation, look at the trend, especially the long term trend. China has proved itself with its long term track record, in almost all aspects that are important to a nation. Is it fair that if all other students in a class only get 50-60 marks, you point your finger on China saying that its score dropped from 90 to 75?
exactly! no one ever talk about China is the driving force of global economy, if China falls, West will get away? those 50/60 students all copy 90 student homework, if the 90 student drop in performance, those 50/60 will surely fail the subjects.
Given that the future of China's economy is fundamentally dependent on Geopolitical concerns, I do not agree that first tier city real-estate will recover in times ahead without government intervention.
How do you reconcile your chart saying new home prices in tier 1 were flat while your experience found declines in tier 1 as well? The opacity (and unpredictable regulatory moves) make it hard to have any confidence.
What about the volatility of the market from the actions of the government? Isn't this a concern that should be addressed when it comes to investment in China? It certainly seemed like a concern to many of the investors that sat at Xi'a dinner table.
I was an expatriate working with state-owned enterprises in China for over a decade. This video is very misleading. Although the data listed in the video are based on the government's official numbers, they are not transparent and convincing. I have always believed that the CCP has manipulated economic statements. The apartments displayed in the video must be at the very high end. Most Chinese can't afford to buy these units. Why can't we see those not-completed constructions? It is estimated there are more than 20 million units not finished. As long as foreigners have safety issues working in China, then there is no point in considering investment there. The genuine concern to invest in China is primarily hinged on one person. I believe you know who he is.
in China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, heath, education and even marriage prospects Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest Unlike here in the west where we are going the other direction
Working with Chinese state enterprises earns you no authority in your claims. You can conduct currency exchange transactions at a Chinese state bank (working with them). It doesn’t make you understand China’s economy better.
Lol i dealt directly with the finance side of China Government, as well as their banks. Their government is the best i have dealt with (australian, singaporean, malaysian, thailand were the others), their way if thinking is unique and extremely skilled. I can tell you property is only a concern to the speculators, which many chinese did. In Shenzhen there is still huge speculation primarily from HK, and while it is good money for the government, it pisses off the poor or young buyers. Since about 2016 they have been trying to lower prices, including massive government spend on new areas (your so called ghost towns) yes you read that correctly, they are primarily government funded. However all the speculation was concentrated in cities and prices keep rising. The CPC are going to let all the speculators lose money 100% , they wont bailout the bankers like the westerners. Fantastic government
I read just this morning that Credit Suisse has axed their entire wealth management team in China and are just giving up on trying to become a major player in that space there.
@@luongo7886Definitely a possibility. No one should feel safe depending on stability in the Middle East for energy. Also note that there’s a feedback loop involved: China needs Middle East energy, the Middle East needs China to buy Middle East energy. If there’s a shock at one end, it is likely to propagate to the other. Downturn in China drives Middle East instability which exacerbates the downturn in China which drives further instability in the Middle East… and around and around we go. But hey, on the bright side, if that happens, it will take the entire world down too, so, “Yay? At least China won’t be the only loser?”
The China economy is basew export and when orders drop it means the earning will drop. As earning drop spending will be cut by commercial entity which normally retrenchment and when unemployed which means no spending and default loans. So China economy going into a tailspin.
Real estate is only 2% of China in 2023 and 4% in 2022. The IMF revised its forecast of China's GDP in November to be 5.4% in 2023. With over 5.4%, how can China be collapsing?
I don't really understand what are you talking about. Be specific. Don't make empty statements and hope people understand you. Support your arguments with data
Don’t listen to these so call China experts analysts! China will not crash in 2024 and never will, these paid for experts analysts are Western media propaganda machine to downplay the Chinese economy. IMF a western global financial institution has said China grew at 5.4% in 2023 and will grow 4-5% in 2024. Europe is in recession right now which is NEGATIVE GDP growth and US is growing at 2.5% only because they borrow huge Debts money to spend on military which is fake growth not organic growth.
If Tier 3 cities offer cheaper housing, then it makes some sense that China tries her best to provide efficient rail connectivity across the nation. This should provide people to own houses outside the Tier 1 and 2 cities and able to work in the Tier 1 and 2 cities.
Private investing is the best way to go about the market right now, especially for near retirees, I've been in touch with a wealth manager, netted 370thousand the last downturn, made it clear there's more to the markets than we average joes know.
A sober and informed look at the Chinese economic situation. I like that Larry visited China to gather first-hand data on the housing situation. However, from a Chinese friend I have heard that even in a first-tier city (Shenzhen) real estate prices have dropped by 30%. Time will tell.
That is good news Real estates are for living and not for investing like the west Just look at the homelessness in the west and you will get the answers
@@Cheesecake99YearsAgo That is to assume there's enough people to fill all constructed real estate in China today, not to mention the number of foreclosures and defaults that are about to hit their financial system. Seems like homelessness might be coming soon to China sooner than you may think.
@@benjaminh9664 🤦♂️🤦♀️🤦 do you really think that the Chinese government would not house these people in those vacant places ? And they are trying to move inland due to the rising sea water If you take a look at the reforestation project in the desert region of China You can see plenty of agri-voltaic projects and other energy infrastructures popping up here and there It is a clear sign they are building up the next generation of usable land close to the silk road
One of the problem with the housing prices in tier 1 cities is that it's not allowed to fall by government putting price floor on them. This is why you have official number graphs showing their prices are not falling, but then you have sellers offering buys tens of thousands of $ in gold to circumvent the price floor. In economic terms, we all know that price floor or ceilings don't work. All they create is a supply/demand mismatch that is them filled by black market. Just logically think about it. With the population now shrinking, and so many people invested in second and third properties during 2000-2020 bubble phase, and the government trying to roll out property tax, what will happen to all the housing that simply have no one to live in them? Japan would be a good example. There are plenty of nearly free/ abandoned houses in Japanese small cities and towns.
I sold a flat and bought another in the middle of this year in a 2-tier city. Never heard of seller offering buyers gold. And the price is freely agreed upon by both parties, as long as it's not ridiculously low, the government doesn't really care because the government collects taxes based on the price.
@@xucgReally? It's all over weibo. Also I helped one cousin's wife from Shanghai to come to the US so she her child born in the US can have US citizenship and can open US bank accounts to transfer money out of China. They are just upper middle class, not even the ultra rich. I also help to guide another Shanghai news cousin's son through US University. He just graduated last year, but on wewchat, his mind to!d him that no to return to China because going back means unemployment. Yeah, that's why China no longer publish unemployment figures after it rose over 21%. She (my cousin) is paying for him to extend stay by going to graduate school, meanwhile asking me how to help her son stay in the US, by finding and marrying an America girlfriend. 但我是心有余而力不足。We shanghainese are typically shrewd. We can see things are not well like the government is claiming.
Some say the stock markets are casinos, then Chinese stock markets would be super casinos. That's probably why most Chinese individuals don't invest in stocks but buy properties in the past. Hopefully, regulators would help make their stock markets healthier and more investible in the future. Subscribed to Larry after seeing this video, well done Larry, keep it up.
That's what China wants. China is a socialist country, and the capital finance game is positioned as one of the roles providing services for the real economy in China. Capital can never be the protagonist and cannot occupy a dominant position. Speculative behavior is considered derogatory and not encouraged, which is determined by China's institutional nature and the national policy of building a country with a real economy. I personally believe that China's attitude towards capital games is right for the long-term healthy development of the country.
You went for a vacation in China and became an expert in Chinese economy! You tell me: a_ China need policies to pop up the property prices, particularly in 3rd tier cities where prices have dropped 30%. What about affordability which you said is already un-affordable? You said that there is 25% university grads are unemployed but since they live with their parents who own houses (but the values dropped) and it is ok. US and Europe will continue to sanction China and hence China will be in trouble. Are the US and Europe not in trouble?
Great video! I am about to travel to China to look for some manufacturing partners. I know Alibaba prices have gone up throughout the years. I wonder what things will be like when I am there after CNY.
china's PMI and industrial output is more of a reflection of weak global demand & economic weakness. china PMI actually outshines any West country by many folds. IMMATURE china's stock market/index has extremely poor reflection/correlation with china's real economic strength. GDP climbed non-stop 1,100 % from 2001 to pre-covid, but its stock index merely went up 70 + % by pre-covid, at most hit 300+% 10+ yrs. ago. Real estate is way long overdue for its 1st necessary correction in 40 yrs.
I am curious whether many Chinese real estate investors will sell their US real estate assets to compensate for their losses in the Chinese real estate market (so that there is a significant impact on US housing price).
@@serena-yu that was a year ago. If you log in to your bloomberg terminal, you see institutions like JPMorgan have increased their Alibaba shares by 46% in Q4 2023. Also BlackRock and Vanguard have increased their China equities by 16% and 22% this year compared to -21% and -14% in 2022.
@@serena-yu , ... and one of those shark has been halted along with his son (both of them now physically residing in China eating and sleeping and breathing, and you know them by their sur name), while his wife and him succeeded in getting a fake devorce to facilitate their act of moving assests out into the US.
Thanks for a concise and easy to follow explanation of China today. You didn’t touch on the issue we hear about home buyers not being able to move into their properties because construction has stopped. Are the companies going to be able to finish these projects without new capital coming in?
Media tends to exaggerate the issue, especially when it comes to China. Yes, there are unfinished buildings, but when you put the context, those are very small percentages of the total real estate market, probably
Western media love to exaggerated everything. 1. Unfinished buildings only accounted for 1-2% of all building. 2. Unbalanced sex ratios? It does exist, but there are only 30 million females than male ratios. In a population of 1.450 billion That is only 2% difference. 3. Aging population? China has fertility rate similar to western europe, yet you don't see so many MSM about these countries. On top of that, because China is a command economy, it can revert the trend to optimal 2.1 fertility rate again. Never forget that it only took China 40 years from 1950 - 1990 to double its population size from 500 million to 1 billion+ Beside, China is overpopulated, a healthy, productive 1.1 or 1.2 billion people are more optimal.
@@summerbreeze50very true! My wife and I bought an apartment under construction in Shanghai. The developer is being excellent about giving us regular updates, and we can actually see the progress as we drive by. It's NOT the nightmare scenario the media portrays.
It's Housing Reform to curb Debt-Overleveraging and Gentrification and reset the housing prices. Both Evergrande and Country Garden are being investigated and restructured, smaller developers on good moral practice standing are being bailed out; and legit home buyers are being compensated. Those who bought multiple units as investments are probably fooked.
Every country goes through ups and downs economically. China came a long way and taught the world a lot. With its fighting spirit and determination and huge knowledge base, China will be fine.
Managing money is different from accumulating wealth, and the lack of investment education in schools may explain why people struggle to maintain their financial gains. The examples you provided are relevant, and I personally benefited from the market crisis, as I embrace challenging times while others tend to avoid them.
Investors should exercise caution with their exposure and exercise caution when considering new investments, particularly during periods of inflation. It is advisable to seek guidance from a professional or trusted advisor in order to navigate this recession and achieve potential high yields
This is superb! Information, as a noob it gets quite difficult to handle all of this and staying informed is a major cause, how do you know about this, are you a pro investor?
Through closely monitoring the performance of my portfolio, I have witnessed a remarkable growth of $485k in just the past two quarters. This experience has shed light on why experienced traders are able to generate substantial returns even in lesser-known markets. It is safe to say that this bold decision has been one of the most impactful choices I have made recently
First thing you should take into consideration analyzing China's property market: there's a lot of restrictions for buying an apartment. Even for buying your first home you should've been paying local taxes for several years. If that's your second home, a mortgage rate automatically becomes at least 1% higher while a down payment skyrockets up to 80%. The bigger a city the more restrictions. It means it much easier to stimulate big cities' property markets just by lifting those restrictions while 3d tier cities' authorities can't do that with the same ease
@@wangfred And so do I. My brother is living in Shanghai and and I have numerous friends in Beijing and Henan who I talk to regularly. His analysis isn't too optimistic. In fact, most people willingly overlook what the government is doing with the real estate situation. Look the Central Economic Work Conference that happened last month for clarity. People genuinely think they are the only ones with relatives that have first hand data and experience.
@@J_X999 let me remind you a few things that are going to affect China's economy for long term. Nobody can change them even the all-mighty CCP. From inside, population is shockingly decreasing. The population is the fundamental driver for real estate and consumption. Real estate is so much oversupplied. People's wealth are largely on real estate. From outside, US starts to call China Adversiry. Can CCP change any of these? I know they've been trying hard recently, unfortunately the results hadn't been satisfying. Anyway, just my observations, no intention to convince anyone.
Is there any chance of a housing downturn (especially in tier 3 cities and above) where housing becomes unsellable at current levels and land is not sold anymore to lgfvs creating a massive hole in local governments income? I can understand Tier 1 and 2 cities stagnating in value but Tier 3 and above are critical in terms of pricing, expected value (and the fact that most of the housing there was for investment, if I'm not mistaken).
I would say they are already there - made much worse by the endemic corruption in the industry from the builders on the ground all the way up the food chain to the highest levels of their government.
I live in KL , Malaysia. Rental and property prices for condo is below pre Covid. Business is so so… Life goes on. Same as in China. I just came back from hols in China.
the hangseng monthly 50ma just crossed 200da. The only index has this occurrence wad Nikkei 225 occurred in 4/1998 (50% drawdown) and never fully recover until after 2013 (15 years drought!). $hsi now at $16k -50% =8k trading back in 1998. Thought?
@@letitiaprincess1125 Japan have a aging and declining population, stalling economy, no real innovation for the past decade, stalling property sector. Sure =)
Did you visit China in the summer? Did you only visit the capital city ? I see the sun was shining and people are wearing short sleeves, the city looks clean and prosperous with supermarkets full of customers and foods are plentiful. By the look of what you show, it looks China is a very prosperous country with a very booming economy. I don’t see any unemployment or poverty there.
Modern cities do not turn into slums overnight if the economy is in the dumps. New York/Paris/London/Los Angeles/Buenos Aires still looked pretty great in 2008-2009 and the years after the Great Financial Crisis, when the global economy was REALLY bad. Making assumptions about the economy based on how cities look in the summer is honestly quite low intelligence stuff.
Yes, those who hold biases against China have their views wrong. China is not a developing country in the traditional sense, nor is it just a thief country with controlled thinking
Young Chinese cannot afford properties which reduced their marriage and birthrate. Government is aware of saving birthrate or saving property market but cannot be both. So it looks like Chinese gov has made a choice.
Real estate is the worst type of GDP. The rich get richer, the middle class vanish, the poor become slaves. In Feudal times, the farmers would revolt. Xi decided to stop this negative cycle at the expense of the super rich.
China has said multiple times that they are planning on a "new development model" for the real estate industry. Affordable housing and low rent apartments are a priority. This proves your point wrong. They aren't inflating the bubble, and they are rebuilding it with new priorities.
@@xw8462 Not only saying, once Chinese government sees it needs to be done, it will be done. Billionaires don't get to control our society; western experience doesn't fully apply to China.
in China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, heath, education and even marriage prospects Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest Unlike here in the west where we are going the other direction
Looking at China’s depressing economy, loss of confidence from youths and investors, aging and slow growth population and Xi ego political policy, I’m beginning to worry the country economy and returns in both the countries and HK will be stagnant for decade like returns in Japan.
I am a Chartered Professional Accountant, Certified Financial Planner, and Havard MBA, my outlook on China remains very positive. Many of my large corporate clients have been investing heavily in China and making huge profits from the huge Chinese market.
question is…will this RE slump repeat in US? they usually drop or rise first in China especially stock market so I’m wondering if US will hit the same hick-up Also a lot of what you said was written online, wish there was more of your opinion rather than repeat articles?
in China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, heath, education and even marriage prospects Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest Unlike here in the west where we are going the other direction
@DW-op7ly China started using socialist policies in the real estate market by pushing out private shareholders and setting up government owned estate holding companies in 2014-2016. That's what caused the issue we see today.
in 2008/2009 Where the US FED had to lend money to its banks China got its banks to lend out 500 billion USD equivalent in stimulus money That created that big ball of money in the Chinese economy that sloshed around from Real Estate, to Shadow Banks Underground economy, commodities, bonds, stocks and the back to real estate which like I said took them 14 years to get under control You can call it what you want. But they are taking steps to eliminate overheated bubbles As I doubt they will allow these overheated sectors or throw in another mother large scale stimulus. Judging from how long it took them to get the last one under control BTW US FED has had to bailout the TOOBIGTOFAILBANKS twice in 10 years first time during the subprime crisis in Q1 of 2009 The last time in Q3 of 2019 That is as far as you can get from Capitalism. As they should have let those banks fail without Government intervention in a true capitalist society However If the US FED had let the credit markets freeze up in either case. Let these TooBigTooFail banks to go under????? You and I would be having an entirely different conversation
@@EzraMerr in what way socialist policies impacted and caused the issues today? dwarfed or eliminated competitive market? But that in itself means that others can't capitalize on greed (as long as the gov. doesn't either) and there's some kind of rent and RE price control no? I grew up in a communist regime forced by Russia and certain things were untouchable in some areas like my city where we couldn't buy flats (now they can), with that though you got rent control and real estate wasn't something you could get rich with which hikes the prices to levels where most people can't afford a place... In reality socialism I don't think is the enemy of the people, if it's used as a basic safety net in the community...Communism on paper isn't an enemy either...what's the enemy of capitalism, communism and socialism in my humble opinions looking at the world is human greed. fraud, especially on a gov. level not just the people because they create laws preventing everyone else from making a buck to then hold people down in a system that doesn't incentivise for working harder or doesn't create fair opportunities....those opportunities should not be there with basics such as: food, water, air and housing. The rest is fair game in my book. Problem with China just like Russia and other communist or socialist nations is that human greed is universal and the people who they often have no say in electing but somehow in a corrupt way get themselves into power and stay there, are the ones who rob people from all of the insensitives under a pretext of protection...that's the issue. If you think about it, in US...social security which everyone taps into when they retire, is a socialist policy...Emergency access no matter if you have insurance or not so you don't die is a socialist policy, if you have no family and are old, you become the "property of the state" so they take care of you in a retirement home...that's a socialist policy...so the element of "ownership" could be with business, technology etc...but housing could stay protected as long as it's beneficial for all...so it's not the "isms" it's the loopholes and fraud done by corrupt government that sniff out power and ensure they keep it which is human greed.
Its seems as people cant determine where china is going but as someone who has watched it change personally in the last 5 years it seems as though alot of small businesses are losing while bigger ones are just borrowing more . People dont seem to be spending and honestly 3 years ago it was as if there was a business everywhere but it feels so quite now. Ive personally already have work for 3 different companies in china thar have gone bankrupt.. but i mean i literally used to live next to incomplete housing 😂😂. I was talking to a Chinese friend yesterday about the government over spending. They dont get it . Talking about convince and stuff . Like we were talking about the trains and high speed train . Although he knew that the high-speed trains wasted money , he couldn't understand how they were useless when there are already trains to take u literally anywhere in china already . Many Chinese people cant afford the nice things in chinw on average... Yo guizhou is poor af . I actually felt bad there
Same, I was talking with people from America, I explained that they are killing Middle eastern by millions, They did not believe me. Then I tell them About how Ukraine lost war with Russia, Then He told me that I am brainwashed by CCP, Bot. Funny things is I never get money from them.. Then My western friend Is trying to convince me that You should never built anything without profit Like HSR, Unlike Interstate Highway which mighty USA built. Talking about convincing westerner
Where do you get financial data? PRC or other reliable sources? PRC data is notoriously inflated or even fabricated. Demographics are another major concern. Seniors don't consume as much stuff as younger people.
in China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, heath, education and even marriage prospects Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest Unlike here in the west where we are going the other direction
The images of China in this video look good. I wish China had freedom and I wish China would allow its citizens to have access and be able to post to UA-cam so we could see everything there is to see.
Don’t invest in China Home because China has low birth rate. Invest in location that has high growing population. Some US city with declining population, the investor lose lots of money.
in China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, heath, education and even marriage prospects Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest Unlike here in the west where we are going the other direction
Just because he didn't say "China will collapse." You know fuck all about China, you genuinely think they are about to enter a famine. He has actually done his research. Go back to Fortnite kid.
Bro your completely wrong, property prices in China will NEVER go up!, China has over built enough apartments to house 1 billion people, Chinas population is in total collapse, these apartments are not rented out producing zero income, they are also terrible quality, the majority of these "apartments" essentially have zero value. they only ever have value if the property price is going up therefore they are only for speculation they are not property assets at all. it would be like doubling the house stock in Europe, have 50% vacant, reduce the build quality by 90% and then claim that somehow the value of property in Europe will increase in a few years what a JOKE!!!
>therefore they are only for speculation wow, so like everywhere else? Lmao. Hedge funds are buying homes like crazy in the US. Real estate is fucked everywhere buddy.
Man…..you are really zoned out. You have been reading way too much western propaganda. I just came back from China…..business is OK and slow. In Malaysia, Thailand, etc…we are all about the same. Rental in KL is lower than pre Covid. Life goes on.
- Belt and Road Initiative failing hard, several projects scrapped, stopped, or countries failing to repay loan to china - Regions Revenues depending on land sales slipped to oblivion, most regions in china became extremely indebted, and rescued by smething like 1 trillion rescue loan from central government of china. - Real estate market like mentioned - several companies leaving china alltogether - loss of something like 80% of foreign investment in such a short period - Logistic restructuring of the world due to covid and previous reliance on china, means more manufacturing is leaving china - increasingly bad view of china by worldwide citizen and government. honestly outlook not looking particularly appealing.
@@J_X999 "according to official numbers" because let me tell you i know a lot of business owners, several of them closed their factories/businesses, usually as factories are bundled in the same area, they also see most of the competition go down as well. so the economy is not doing well on the ground, but reported numbers make it look like everything is fine. when in some areas I know 11 out of 12 factories closed down within a 3-year timeframe (COVID) i doubt China's economy is as peachy as they make it sound.
@@jobslolo7387 "let me tell you, I know several business owners." 🤥 Who let their child create a UA-cam account? Listen pal, I have worked for JPM since 2017 and all our data is independently verifiable. China's economy is growing at 4 to 5 percent this year, and actually, they've just had a surge in consumer spending over Q4, so it'll be higher at this point in time. No one ever uses "official numbers" like you say. All data you see from JPM, China Beige Book or Bloomberg is independently verifiable. People use the "China lies about it's data" as an excuse to try and make it the worst possible scenario. They know fuck all about economics.
China property market has presented an unprecedented opportunity with such considerable correction as well as hang seng. These are the best market to trade for long term holding.
It's not dramatically different from what China says. People who say "China's GDP is 60% smaller than what they say" are just retarded. It's all independently verifiable. China's GDP isn't as high as they say, but it's not far off.
Why is it so difficult for Westerners to grasp the philosophy of China overbuilding housing? It's meant for people in future generations to use and fill up, not for much or most of the working class of China right now in the present. As their living standards increase, they'll be able to afford the rents and fees of the new big apartments more easily. Maybe China will have more socialist public housing in the future as well. We are looking at the issue of China's housing from a Real Estate point of view not as a necessity for people to live.
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂，Chinese population is reducing by millions every year, it would take 30 years to recovered, imagine it, what would those unoccupied units look like in 30 years 😉
There are major flaws in China's economic picture, not the least of which is the reliability of their government economic data on which you and many money managers used for your assessments. When the CCP avoids releasing truly negative data like youth unemployment or are accused of massaging data to align with their economic projections, it's hard to blame investors for avoiding the Chinese market. It's hard to reconcile contradicting data showing GDP growth of 5% despite a collapsing real estate market that accounts for 30% of the GDP, rising unemployment, wage cuts, declining exports, manufacturing and deflationary concerns. Makes you wonder what is really the true GDP growth rate.
China has led 7 of 10 growth industries for decades like EV, Green Energy, this is the big picture. BTW, China has surpassed Japan as the the biggest auto exporter 2023 already(4million exported)
@@stevenhuang4193 And yet somehow it remains the world's biggest polluter, building and relying on more coal plants and its cars are not in major markets or does not compete well against the world's auto leaders. Again, it comes back to the reliability of the government's data.
I used to agree with this perspective. Nevertheless, China stocks have been so beaten up the past two years. Buying a KWEB or KLIP is a low risk high reward situation. I don't think either of those ETFs will get much lower this year. As long as you don't buy individual china stocks, I think long term an investor will be fine.
@@anthonyv.8668 The risk reward may look attractive but remember it took the Nikkei 30 years to recover (last year) to the levels of the early 90s when its bubble popped. There is probably much more excess (government debt at all levels, shadow lending, huge real estate bubble, etc) in the Chinese economy and its policies (vs 1980s Japan) that drove its growth the past 30 years that needs to unwind before it can begin to recover. There will be plenty of head fakes before the Chinese market truly recovers. Its better to be a trader than an investor in the Chinese market.
@@anthonyv.8668 very simple to tell. How much electricity China has produced vs US, we can tell whose number is more reliabe. Yeah, I agree that China Stock market has been dismal. It hits individual investors like us. Also you have to look from the great geopolitical perspective. America, at least Washington politicians have thrown everything to obstruct China - trade war, technology war and finanical trade. so far China has prevailed in trade war, technology. Regarding finanicial trade, may take a bit long. The bottom line is that is China's real industry capacity and quality has kept expanding and moving up. US will fail itself by obstructing China instead of fixing its own problem.ponzi scheme is in the making if an economy is based on shuffling money around.
thank you. very informative! Unfortunately from my point of view China is uninvestable. Take a look at what happened to ADR-holders in Russia! The China/Taiwan-conflict is not a big difference to the Russia/Ukraine-conflict. There is substantial risk of a complete (western) ADR-holder (which are no shares but only certificates -> see Russia) whipeout. just my point of view but as i said thank you for the very interesting macro research.
Its funny how the ignorant still thinks china will invade taiwan. China became a world power without a single bullet fired at other countries unlike Britian and America who became world power through colonization and invasion. Do you even know how many China chinese are in Taiwan and Taiwanese people are in China? They have more ties to each other, more like siblings than neighbours. By comparing Ukraine/Russia conflict with China and Taiwan, means you have never been to Taiwan and see how the Taiwanese people there are more pro china than most people outside Taiwan thinks. This means unification will happen naturally over the decades than through aggression.
No, it isn't very objective and quite misleading. The apartments displayed in the video are not for 95+% of Chinese. I was an expatriate and worked with state-owned enterprises for more than 1 decade. The presenter needs to travel to China more frequently and stay there much longer to get accurate pictures. I have a lot of sympathy for the Chinese under extreme censorship.
They had good free market policies before 2018, it was like one of the most capitalist countries in the world; makes EU, UK, Canada, and Australia look like socialist s*#%holes. I'm not sure about their future with these new post 2019 socialist policies, though. I know they're moving towards a consumer market, which is good for us small business owners wanting to start a competitive brick & mortar WoFE business there. The VAT and rate tax is still favourable.
Actually I think their policy is amazing. They had a controlled popping of the bubble, followed by total competition with the west on all top end items. Their system makes free market look stupid.
Good objective video . I do think the oversold in Chinese equities are overdone . Also I feel that China is firing all cylinders to get the economy going and it will prevail eventually . The Geo politics of Taiwan is not happening so soon due to the changes to the military and the soft economy
Thanks for the video and another insight into China. Still some ways to go before investing there as the big kahuna has yet to play out which is the situation with Taiwan. China is yet to find a bottom imo. Geo-pol., China +1 reshoring, domestic housing and banking crisis etc have some more to play out. To be watched but not investable as yet imo. Also heard chinese buying gold so that is what I am buying atm !
Less than a month old, and this video definitely aged well… 😂 The drawing was on the wall all along and since 5 years ago. It seems like you were a disbeliever of China market and then successfully picked the worst possible time to enter the China market (and China market related stock). But can’t blame you, Charlie Munger lost a ton too. Cut lost before it is too late. There is no theory in investing which proves stock price always revert to mean.
Once you've spent time in China, outside Beijing, you realise it only only a matter of time before it crashes. Take a look at the madness of Kangbashi...
@@bikepacker9850 maybe u should come and see by yourself. No one stopping u to go to small cities in china. I’m not gonna say China doesn’t have economic problems right now, but it’s hilarious to see so many people think China is going to crash, we’ve been hearing this for decades.
@@iloveHXC4ever I have seen more Chinese cities than you have. I spent 3 months travelling through China. I've been to probably 30 Chinese cities. Not just the banner cities of Beijing or Shanghai, I went to the filthy polluted cities in the north. The cities where you can't see 1km due to pollution. Where the rivers are dead and choked with trash. I was actually in Wuhan when the virus escaped from one of their badly run labs.
in China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, heath, education and even marriage prospects Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest Unlike here in the west where we are going the other direction
Western buisness conglomerates have lost faith in China . Maybe the mojo might come back . The future for foreign private investment in , China , a communist country, is not good . Another important sector you failed to mention is Agriculture.
Living in the US for 40 years, I still dont understand the Economic, Real Estate, and Confidence Crisis. You visiting China once and you understand theirs?
I have my MBA from Rotman and my CPA but dont have a CFA because i dont need it for life or work. Does not having a level 3 make me less intelligent to analyze?@@davidcao1989
Be careful investing in Chinese stocks, they have been in a downtrend for a few years now save for the pop in the market after they stop the lockdown. Their market jump for a few months and when the recovery sputtered, they resumed their downward spiral. They are currently nearly their all time lows so you may get a short term dead cat bounce but I don't expect that to last. Go to other You Tube sites that cover China and you will get uncensored info about China that the CCP don't want you to know. Look at China Observer, China Truths, China Insight and think about whether or not you want to risk your money. Good Luck investing, just be cautious, the global economic conditions continue to deteriorate. Eventually when things hit bottom that will be the time to buy is when everyone is fearful.
in China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, heath, education and even marriage prospects Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest Unlike here in the west where we are going the other direction
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If you're going to delete some of my posts on a thread that I'm discussing something. Why should I even bother watching your video?
did u buy any houses in China ?
I don’t know how but you’ve managed to package an unbiased analysis that is more entertaining than the sensationalized segment of economic and financial news. Thank you for your efforts to be the signal and not the noise. I understand that the economy is currently in a downturn and that we must wait for things to get better
I think the current market might give opportunities to maximize profit within a short term, but in order to execute such strategy , you must be a skilled practitioner
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
Even if you have a humongous income you still need to draw up futuristic plans because anything can happen. One could lose one's job or whatever. Investment cannot be overemphasized. About your advisor, how does one reach pls
My CFA ’Melissa Terri Swayne’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Appreciate this recommendation, hopefully I can get some insight to where the market is headed and strategies to beat the downtrend with when I hear back from Melissa.
I remember in 2007 when I was working in real estate seeing people buy homes new from builders with the intention of selling before close of escrow to a new buyer for profit. The crash was so brutal and fast that I remember seeing a lot of these units foreclosed on with the builder plastic still on the carpet.
Given that we are not used to such volatile markets, the fact that the US stock market has been on its longest bull run in history helps to explain the widespread fear and enthusiasm. There are chances if you know where to look, as you noted when I earned more than $780k in the prior ten months. I hired a portfolio advisor because I knew I would need a solid plan to get through these difficult times.
Your fiduciary seems highly competent. May I ask if you are still working with the same fiduciary, and if so, could you share how I can contact them?
It was run by “Tenley Megan Amerson” , who I learned about and got in touch with thanks to a CNBC interview. Since then, it has served as the point of entry and departure for the games we have emphasized. A search on the internet can be done if tracking is necessary.
I just copied and paste ‘Jennifer whole name into my browser, and her website appeared right away. You've saved me several hours of arduous research, therefore I appreciate it.
Have you all caught wind of Monica 0:01 Mary 0:01 Strigle 0:01? Word is, she executed a successful short position on the Chinese Index, yielding an impressive 185% gain a 2wks ago.
Really? Shorting the Chinese Index is a bold move, especially with the complexities of that market.
What trading strategies did she employ to achieve such substantial gains?
Her approach involved an in-depth analysis of economic indicators, meticulous tracking of global trends, and identifying vulnerabilities in the Chinese market. She strategically executed short positions to capitalize on the anticipated downturn.
Impressive, but shorting comes with its own set of risks. Did she share any insights on risk management or how she navigated the challenges?
Absolutely. Strigle emphasized diversification within her portfolio and maintaining constant vigilance over market conditions. She also stayed attuned to geopolitical developments that could impact the Chinese market.
Given the persisting global economic crisis, it's essential for individuals to focus on diversifying their income streams independent of governmental reliance. This involves exploring options such as stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the adversity in the economy, now is an opportune moment to contemplate these investment avenues.
The attainment of substantial returns is not solely reliant on the volatility of high-performing stocks. It pertains more to the adept management of risk in conjunction with potential reward. Through astutely sizing your positions and consistently capitalizing on your strengths, you can steadily progress towards achieving your financial goals. This fundamental principle remains applicable across various investment methodologies, be it long-term investment approaches or day trading strategies.
Experienced long-term investors are aware that the market and economy have a tendency to bounce back over time, and it's wise for investors to be prepared for such a recovery. Speaking from my own experience, I continue to invest heavily in this volatile market and have achieved significant gains - my portfolio is presently up by 60%. For now, I'll keep a watchful eye on the situation and gradually invest in more stocks as opportunities arise.
How did you achieve it? @halimatanko... I been trying to stick with index funds. I feel this new interest rates hikes could crash this economy. I'm looking out for a better investing strategy, I have a lump sum that inflation is steady eating up.
Finding financial advisors like Colleen Janie Towe who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.
I think we are too obsessed about the economy crashing. In the right sense, the economy never crashes. It just undergoes cycles, and almost always recovers. So I really don't care what the predictions are. I just want to grow my portfolio. I read that people are pulling in massive profits despite the downturn. Any tips on how they do it?
The market will always recover. The goal is to find quality stocks with long term potential. It's hard for the average Joe to do this, because it involves following a lot of industry news, following up with earnings, etc. It's easier to invest through an advisor who knows how stuff works, and make rocket returns.
Investing in quality stocks with long-term potential is a good strategy, but it can be challenging for the average person to do this on their own. Keeping up with industry news and earnings can be time-consuming and difficult. That's why it's easier to work with an advisor who can help you make informed decisions and potentially achieve high returns.
@@hasede-lg9hj my partner’s been considering going the same route, could you share more info please on the advisor that guides you.
The advisor that guides me is Vivian Carol Gioia, most likely the internet is where to find her basic info, just search her name. She's established.
Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.
This is not the first time China encountered economic difficulty. In fact, many time in the past. Given the big background of at or near the end of depressional phase of the 50-60 years of Kondratiev wave， the whole world is in big trouble economically, geopolitically, environmentally, etc. And surprisingly, when you COMPARE China with other countries around the world, China's performance just stands out remarkable.
Not just looking at the current situation, look at the trend, especially the long term trend. China has proved itself with its long term track record, in almost all aspects that are important to a nation.
Is it fair that if all other students in a class only get 50-60 marks, you point your finger on China saying that its score dropped from 90 to 75?
exactly! no one ever talk about China is the driving force of global economy, if China falls, West will get away? those 50/60 students all copy 90 student homework, if the 90 student drop in performance, those 50/60 will surely fail the subjects.
Nice comment,mate 😊
Excellent, it is an accurate and factual viewpoint
Doont peapol waachiing relaiabel westurn mediia an Ameriikan heeroo Gordoon caang? Dhey olredi confarm cpp is collaeps. Democrasee an freedam contris haaf defeetad de dikteitur cpp
Given that the future of China's economy is fundamentally dependent on Geopolitical concerns, I do not agree that first tier city real-estate will recover in times ahead without government intervention.
Corrections are more than normal. China property prices are long overdue for a correction.
It’s not only the US relationship that has deteriorated it’s all the modern world
It's the US relationship to most of the world that has deteriorated due to reckless US policies.
How do you reconcile your chart saying new home prices in tier 1 were flat while your experience found declines in tier 1 as well? The opacity (and unpredictable regulatory moves) make it hard to have any confidence.
What about the volatility of the market from the actions of the government? Isn't this a concern that should be addressed when it comes to investment in China? It certainly seemed like a concern to many of the investors that sat at Xi'a dinner table.
I was an expatriate working with state-owned enterprises in China for over a decade. This video is very misleading. Although the data listed in the video are based on the government's official numbers, they are not transparent and convincing. I have always believed that the CCP has manipulated economic statements. The apartments displayed in the video must be at the very high end. Most Chinese can't afford to buy these units. Why can't we see those not-completed constructions? It is estimated there are more than 20 million units not finished. As long as foreigners have safety issues working in China, then there is no point in considering investment there. The genuine concern to invest in China is primarily hinged on one person. I believe you know who he is.
非常好奇，您作为一个外国人士，居然能在中国的国有企业工作。
"Work with", not "Work for". I worked for a multinational company.
@@albertchung8263 哦，明白了
in China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities
By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities
That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers.
Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate.
Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control
Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018
Why is their Central Government doing this?
Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen.
Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need
In China
Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, heath, education and even marriage prospects
Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China
Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
Unlike here in the west where we are going the other direction
Working with Chinese state enterprises earns you no authority in your claims. You can conduct currency exchange transactions at a Chinese state bank (working with them). It doesn’t make you understand China’s economy better.
Lol i dealt directly with the finance side of China Government, as well as their banks. Their government is the best i have dealt with (australian, singaporean, malaysian, thailand were the others), their way if thinking is unique and extremely skilled. I can tell you property is only a concern to the speculators, which many chinese did. In Shenzhen there is still huge speculation primarily from HK, and while it is good money for the government, it pisses off the poor or young buyers. Since about 2016 they have been trying to lower prices, including massive government spend on new areas (your so called ghost towns) yes you read that correctly, they are primarily government funded. However all the speculation was concentrated in cities and prices keep rising. The CPC are going to let all the speculators lose money 100% , they wont bailout the bankers like the westerners. Fantastic government
I read just this morning that Credit Suisse has axed their entire wealth management team in China and are just giving up on trying to become a major player in that space there.
the train is off the rails. mass starvation is prob gonna happen.
@@ManwithNoName-t1o Are you for real? So it's going to be atrocious in china? That bad?
@@luongo7886 yes
CS is gone already.
UBS didn’t want them.
@@luongo7886Definitely a possibility. No one should feel safe depending on stability in the Middle East for energy. Also note that there’s a feedback loop involved: China needs Middle East energy, the Middle East needs China to buy Middle East energy. If there’s a shock at one end, it is likely to propagate to the other. Downturn in China drives Middle East instability which exacerbates the downturn in China which drives further instability in the Middle East… and around and around we go.
But hey, on the bright side, if that happens, it will take the entire world down too, so, “Yay? At least China won’t be the only loser?”
The China economy is basew export and when orders drop it means the earning will drop. As earning drop spending will be cut by commercial entity which normally retrenchment and when unemployed which means no spending and default loans. So China economy going into a tailspin.
Real estate is only 2% of China in 2023 and 4% in 2022. The IMF revised its forecast of China's GDP in November to be 5.4% in 2023. With over 5.4%, how can China be collapsing?
It is happening, banks are claiming that they are none ownership institutions😂
I don't really understand what are you talking about. Be specific. Don't make empty statements and hope people understand you. Support your arguments with data
他们觉得房地产＝中国 顺从就完事了
Don’t listen to these so call China experts analysts! China will not crash in 2024 and never will, these paid for experts analysts are Western media propaganda machine to downplay the Chinese economy. IMF a western global financial institution has said China grew at 5.4% in 2023 and will grow 4-5% in 2024. Europe is in recession right now which is NEGATIVE GDP growth and US is growing at 2.5% only because they borrow huge Debts money to spend on military which is fake growth not organic growth.
If Tier 3 cities offer cheaper housing, then it makes some sense that China tries her best to provide efficient rail connectivity across the nation. This should provide people to own houses outside the Tier 1 and 2 cities and able to work in the Tier 1 and 2 cities.
Private investing is the best way to go about the market right now, especially for near retirees, I've been in touch with a wealth manager, netted 370thousand the last downturn, made it clear there's more to the markets than we average joes know.
Who is this manager you use? I lost over 35000 already this year, I’m in need of a planner going forward
My consultant is Monica Mary Strigle , experienced, advanced and consults for many brokerages hence is independent and can be a fiduciary to you.
Thanks for the recommendation, lady looks very intelligent, i searched her name on the web and found her site, scheduled a call already
lol
How about you add household savings? Also, gov’t debt. Everything is relative. Compare to Canada household savings and gov’t debt.
A sober and informed look at the Chinese economic situation. I like that Larry visited China to gather first-hand data on the housing situation. However, from a Chinese friend I have heard that even in a first-tier city (Shenzhen) real estate prices have dropped by 30%. Time will tell.
It’s exacerbating.
That is good news
Real estates are for living and not for investing like the west
Just look at the homelessness in the west and you will get the answers
@@Cheesecake99YearsAgo That is to assume there's enough people to fill all constructed real estate in China today, not to mention the number of foreclosures and defaults that are about to hit their financial system. Seems like homelessness might be coming soon to China sooner than you may think.
You are consuming too much anti China western narratives for your own good lol.@@benjaminh9664
@@benjaminh9664 🤦♂️🤦♀️🤦
do you really think that the Chinese government would not house these people in those vacant places ?
And they are trying to move inland due to the rising sea water
If you take a look at the reforestation project in the desert region of China
You can see plenty of agri-voltaic projects and other energy infrastructures popping up here and there
It is a clear sign they are building up the next generation of usable land close to the silk road
This never gets old 💯💯💯. Keep it coming‼‼‼
Why invest in China, with US stock market is hot like now?
One of the problem with the housing prices in tier 1 cities is that it's not allowed to fall by government putting price floor on them. This is why you have official number graphs showing their prices are not falling, but then you have sellers offering buys tens of thousands of $ in gold to circumvent the price floor. In economic terms, we all know that price floor or ceilings don't work. All they create is a supply/demand mismatch that is them filled by black market. Just logically think about it. With the population now shrinking, and so many people invested in second and third properties during 2000-2020 bubble phase, and the government trying to roll out property tax, what will happen to all the housing that simply have no one to live in them? Japan would be a good example. There are plenty of nearly free/ abandoned houses in Japanese small cities and towns.
I sold a flat and bought another in the middle of this year in a 2-tier city. Never heard of seller offering buyers gold. And the price is freely agreed upon by both parties, as long as it's not ridiculously low, the government doesn't really care because the government collects taxes based on the price.
@@xucgReally? It's all over weibo. Also I helped one cousin's wife from Shanghai to come to the US so she her child born in the US can have US citizenship and can open US bank accounts to transfer money out of China. They are just upper middle class, not even the ultra rich. I also help to guide another Shanghai news cousin's son through US University. He just graduated last year, but on wewchat, his mind to!d him that no to return to China because going back means unemployment. Yeah, that's why China no longer publish unemployment figures after it rose over 21%. She (my cousin) is paying for him to extend stay by going to graduate school, meanwhile asking me how to help her son stay in the US, by finding and marrying an America girlfriend. 但我是心有余而力不足。We shanghainese are typically shrewd. We can see things are not well like the government is claiming.
Some say the stock markets are casinos, then Chinese stock markets would be super casinos. That's probably why most Chinese individuals don't invest in stocks but buy properties in the past. Hopefully, regulators would help make their stock markets healthier and more investible in the future. Subscribed to Larry after seeing this video, well done Larry, keep it up.
Chinese love casinos 🎰 😌
That's what China wants. China is a socialist country, and the capital finance game is positioned as one of the roles providing services for the real economy in China. Capital can never be the protagonist and cannot occupy a dominant position. Speculative behavior is considered derogatory and not encouraged, which is determined by China's institutional nature and the national policy of building a country with a real economy. I personally believe that China's attitude towards capital games is right for the long-term healthy development of the country.
CHinese stock markets are not casinos. They are straight out scams.
Do people in China own stocks in the mainland indexes? Aren't they clamoring for some huge monetary stimulus?
They arent americans😂
Over 90% of the people I know in China do not own stocks, but 100% of them own real estate properties.
@@BTS-zq2vy 你的感觉差不多，大部分中国人没有股票。中国股民大约有2亿。中国有14亿人口。股民占15%。
Wow $1M for only 400-500sqf is insane. To people actually transact at those prices?
Yes. Most definitely
Is it one million rmb or us dollar???
@@benh3427 USD. My tiny 550sqf is 1.25mil USD.
He said in a good neighborhood most are sold at like 700k million in t1 cities.
You went for a vacation in China and became an expert in Chinese economy! You tell me:
a_ China need policies to pop up the property prices, particularly in 3rd tier cities where prices have dropped 30%. What about affordability which you said is already un-affordable? You said that there is 25% university grads are unemployed but since they live with their parents who own houses (but the values dropped) and it is ok.
US and Europe will continue to sanction China and hence China will be in trouble. Are the US and Europe not in trouble?
Great video! I am about to travel to China to look for some manufacturing partners. I know Alibaba prices have gone up throughout the years. I wonder what things will be like when I am there after CNY.
wow! larry! this is 1 of the best observation summarizing china instead of those twisted news!
china's PMI and industrial output is more of a reflection of weak global demand & economic weakness. china
PMI actually outshines any West country by many folds. IMMATURE china's stock market/index has extremely poor reflection/correlation with china's real economic strength. GDP climbed non-stop 1,100 % from 2001 to pre-covid, but its stock index merely went up 70 + % by pre-covid, at most hit 300+% 10+ yrs. ago. Real estate is way long overdue for its 1st necessary correction in 40 yrs.
I am curious whether many Chinese real estate investors will sell their US real estate assets to compensate for their losses in the Chinese real estate market (so that there is a significant impact on US housing price).
already started
They were doing the opposite, transferring capitals outside of China.
@@serena-yu that was a year ago. If you log in to your bloomberg terminal, you see institutions like JPMorgan have increased their Alibaba shares by 46% in Q4 2023. Also BlackRock and Vanguard have increased their China equities by 16% and 22% this year compared to -21% and -14% in 2022.
I’ve seen more people cutting their loss in PRC then investing in USA.
@@serena-yu , ... and one of those shark has been halted along with his son (both of them now physically residing in China eating and sleeping and breathing, and you know them by their sur name), while his wife and him succeeded in getting a fake devorce to facilitate their act of moving assests out into the US.
Thanks for a concise and easy to follow explanation of China today. You didn’t touch on the issue we hear about home buyers not being able to move into their properties because construction has stopped. Are the companies going to be able to finish these projects without new capital coming in?
Media tends to exaggerate the issue, especially when it comes to China. Yes, there are unfinished buildings, but when you put the context, those are very small percentages of the total real estate market, probably
Western media love to exaggerated everything.
1. Unfinished buildings only accounted for 1-2% of all building.
2. Unbalanced sex ratios? It does exist, but there are only 30 million females than male ratios.
In a population of 1.450 billion
That is only 2% difference.
3. Aging population?
China has fertility rate similar to western europe, yet you don't see so many MSM about these countries.
On top of that, because China is a command economy, it can revert the trend to optimal 2.1 fertility rate again.
Never forget that it only took China 40 years from 1950 - 1990 to double its population size from 500 million to 1 billion+
Beside, China is overpopulated, a healthy, productive 1.1 or 1.2 billion people are more optimal.
@@summerbreeze50very true! My wife and I bought an apartment under construction in Shanghai. The developer is being excellent about giving us regular updates, and we can actually see the progress as we drive by. It's NOT the nightmare scenario the media portrays.
It's Housing Reform to curb Debt-Overleveraging and Gentrification and reset the housing prices. Both Evergrande and Country Garden are being investigated and restructured, smaller developers on good moral practice standing are being bailed out; and legit home buyers are being compensated. Those who bought multiple units as investments are probably fooked.
Every country goes through ups and downs economically. China came a long way and taught the world a lot. With its fighting spirit and determination and huge knowledge base, China will be fine.
难道我记错了，我记得人民币市场在没有渠道情况下，是没有私人外币投资渠道的
Managing money is different from accumulating wealth, and the lack of investment education in schools may explain why people struggle to maintain their financial gains. The examples you provided are relevant, and I personally benefited from the market crisis, as I embrace challenging times while others tend to avoid them.
Investors should exercise caution with their exposure and exercise caution when considering new investments, particularly during periods of inflation. It is advisable to seek guidance from a professional or trusted advisor in order to navigate this recession and achieve potential high yields
This is superb! Information, as a noob it gets quite difficult to handle all of this and staying informed is a major cause, how do you know about this, are you a pro investor?
Through closely monitoring the performance of my portfolio, I have witnessed a remarkable growth of $485k in just the past two quarters. This experience has shed light on why experienced traders are able to generate substantial returns even in lesser-known markets. It is safe to say that this bold decision has been one of the most impactful choices I have made recently
Wow, that's stirring! Do you mind connecting me to your advisor please. I desperately need one to diversified my portfolio
I've actually been looking into advisors lately, the news
I've been seeing in the market hasn't been so encouraging. who's the person guiding you?
First thing you should take into consideration analyzing China's property market: there's a lot of restrictions for buying an apartment. Even for buying your first home you should've been paying local taxes for several years. If that's your second home, a mortgage rate automatically becomes at least 1% higher while a down payment skyrockets up to 80%. The bigger a city the more restrictions. It means it much easier to stimulate big cities' property markets just by lifting those restrictions while 3d tier cities' authorities can't do that with the same ease
still too optimistic on China. We shall wait and see.
what do you think west will be like if China falls? prosperous? 😅
It's not "too optimistic", you are just biased and don't have the knowledge to back it up.
@@J_X999 I have family and friends are or were doing business. I have first hand hand data.
@@wangfred And so do I.
My brother is living in Shanghai and and I have numerous friends in Beijing and Henan who I talk to regularly.
His analysis isn't too optimistic. In fact, most people willingly overlook what the government is doing with the real estate situation. Look the Central Economic Work Conference that happened last month for clarity.
People genuinely think they are the only ones with relatives that have first hand data and experience.
@@J_X999 let me remind you a few things that are going to affect China's economy for long term. Nobody can change them even the all-mighty CCP. From inside, population is shockingly decreasing. The population is the fundamental driver for real estate and consumption. Real estate is so much oversupplied. People's wealth are largely on real estate. From outside, US starts to call China Adversiry. Can CCP change any of these? I know they've been trying hard recently, unfortunately the results hadn't been satisfying. Anyway, just my observations, no intention to convince anyone.
That’s a very useful video for US based investors in Chinese stocks, thanks
Short em easy money been doing that all yr
@@mattyghost3409 not very smart to short stocks that are at rock bottom even if they may fall further!
Is there any chance of a housing downturn (especially in tier 3 cities and above) where housing becomes unsellable at current levels and land is not sold anymore to lgfvs creating a massive hole in local governments income? I can understand Tier 1 and 2 cities stagnating in value but Tier 3 and above are critical in terms of pricing, expected value (and the fact that most of the housing there was for investment, if I'm not mistaken).
I would say they are already there - made much worse by the endemic corruption in the industry from the builders on the ground all the way up the food chain to the highest levels of their government.
I live in KL , Malaysia.
Rental and property prices for condo is below pre Covid.
Business is so so…
Life goes on.
Same as in China.
I just came back from hols in China.
Just don't get too carried away by western anti China narratives, everyone knows that property prices everywhere move in cycles,, no?
the hangseng monthly 50ma just crossed 200da. The only index has this occurrence wad Nikkei 225 occurred in 4/1998 (50% drawdown) and never fully recover until after 2013 (15 years drought!). $hsi now at $16k -50% =8k trading back in 1998. Thought?
comparing japan with china? xD this is funny
not funny, its just technical on monthly chart.@@DailyGPT365
Not just the hang seng. The China A share index looks horrible.
@@DailyGPT365 Right. Japan fundamentals are so more sturdier than the PRC.
@@letitiaprincess1125 Japan have a aging and declining population, stalling economy, no real innovation for the past decade, stalling property sector. Sure =)
What is a tier one and a tier three city???
What about tier2? You didn't touch on that topic much.
Tier One property market will recover at some point... Would love to hear a little support for this statement and a time frame.
I wonder what is going to happen to real estate in china if the population declines to 700 million in the next 76 years as some have predicted
I don't think those buildings will last 76 years.
If you ain't going to live another 76 years why be affected by subjective silly speculation.
As long as there are people, real estate will always be wanted.
Did you visit China in the summer? Did you only visit the capital city ? I see the sun was shining and people are wearing short sleeves, the city looks clean and prosperous with supermarkets full of customers and foods are plentiful. By the look of what you show, it looks China is a very prosperous country with a very booming economy. I don’t see any unemployment or poverty there.
You’re disillusioned 🤣
@@letitiaprincess1125no, you are actually the idiot in the room!!
@@letitiaprincess1125at least China cities dont have to clean street shits while foreign leader visiting.
Modern cities do not turn into slums overnight if the economy is in the dumps. New York/Paris/London/Los Angeles/Buenos Aires still looked pretty great in 2008-2009 and the years after the Great Financial Crisis, when the global economy was REALLY bad. Making assumptions about the economy based on how cities look in the summer is honestly quite low intelligence stuff.
Yes, those who hold biases against China have their views wrong. China is not a developing country in the traditional sense, nor is it just a thief country with controlled thinking
Young Chinese cannot afford properties which reduced their marriage and birthrate. Government is aware of saving birthrate or saving property market but cannot be both. So it looks like Chinese gov has made a choice.
Real estate is the worst type of GDP. The rich get richer, the middle class vanish, the poor become slaves. In Feudal times, the farmers would revolt. Xi decided to stop this negative cycle at the expense of the super rich.
China has said multiple times that they are planning on a "new development model" for the real estate industry.
Affordable housing and low rent apartments are a priority. This proves your point wrong. They aren't inflating the bubble, and they are rebuilding it with new priorities.
@@J_X999 at least they are still saying..America just gave up.
@@xw8462 Not only saying, once Chinese government sees it needs to be done, it will be done. Billionaires don't get to control our society; western experience doesn't fully apply to China.
in China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities
By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities
That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers.
Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate.
Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control
Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018
Why is their Central Government doing this?
Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen.
Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need
In China
Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, heath, education and even marriage prospects
Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China
Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
Unlike here in the west where we are going the other direction
when you take a close look at cities across America - there is no words to describe them !!!
Looking at China’s depressing economy, loss of confidence from youths and investors, aging and slow growth population and Xi ego political policy, I’m beginning to worry the country economy and returns in both the countries and HK will be stagnant for decade like returns in Japan.
I am a Chartered Professional Accountant, Certified Financial Planner, and Havard MBA, my outlook on China remains very positive. Many of my large corporate clients have been investing heavily in China and making huge profits from the huge Chinese market.
Its actually good timing to enter China since major companies under devaluation.
You misspelled the name of your alma mater! 😎
@jamesburke3803 Oh, I am surry. Arsewhole.
question is…will this RE slump repeat in US? they usually drop or rise first in China especially stock market so I’m wondering if US will hit the same hick-up
Also a lot of what you said was written online, wish there was more of your opinion rather than repeat articles?
in China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities
By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities
That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers.
Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate.
Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control
Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018
Why is their Central Government doing this?
Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen.
Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need
In China
Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, heath, education and even marriage prospects
Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China
Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
Unlike here in the west where we are going the other direction
@DW-op7ly China started using socialist policies in the real estate market by pushing out private shareholders and setting up government owned estate holding companies in 2014-2016. That's what caused the issue we see today.
in 2008/2009
Where the US FED had to lend money to its banks
China got its banks to lend out 500 billion USD equivalent in stimulus money
That created that big ball of money in the Chinese economy that sloshed around from Real Estate, to Shadow Banks Underground economy, commodities, bonds, stocks and the back to real estate which like I said took them 14 years to get under control
You can call it what you want. But they are taking steps to eliminate overheated bubbles
As I doubt they will allow these overheated sectors or throw in another mother large scale
stimulus. Judging from how long it took them to get the last one under control
BTW US FED has had to bailout the TOOBIGTOFAILBANKS twice in 10 years first time during the subprime crisis in Q1 of 2009
The last time in Q3 of 2019
That is as far as you can get from Capitalism.
As they should have let those banks fail without Government intervention in a true capitalist society
However If the US FED had let the credit markets freeze up in either case. Let these TooBigTooFail banks to go under?????
You and I would be having an entirely different conversation
@@EzraMerr in what way socialist policies impacted and caused the issues today? dwarfed or eliminated competitive market? But that in itself means that others can't capitalize on greed (as long as the gov. doesn't either) and there's some kind of rent and RE price control no? I grew up in a communist regime forced by Russia and certain things were untouchable in some areas like my city where we couldn't buy flats (now they can), with that though you got rent control and real estate wasn't something you could get rich with which hikes the prices to levels where most people can't afford a place...
In reality socialism I don't think is the enemy of the people, if it's used as a basic safety net in the community...Communism on paper isn't an enemy either...what's the enemy of capitalism, communism and socialism in my humble opinions looking at the world is human greed. fraud, especially on a gov. level not just the people because they create laws preventing everyone else from making a buck to then hold people down in a system that doesn't incentivise for working harder or doesn't create fair opportunities....those opportunities should not be there with basics such as: food, water, air and housing. The rest is fair game in my book.
Problem with China just like Russia and other communist or socialist nations is that human greed is universal and the people who they often have no say in electing but somehow in a corrupt way get themselves into power and stay there, are the ones who rob people from all of the insensitives under a pretext of protection...that's the issue. If you think about it, in US...social security which everyone taps into when they retire, is a socialist policy...Emergency access no matter if you have insurance or not so you don't die is a socialist policy, if you have no family and are old, you become the "property of the state" so they take care of you in a retirement home...that's a socialist policy...so the element of "ownership" could be with business, technology etc...but housing could stay protected as long as it's beneficial for all...so it's not the "isms" it's the loopholes and fraud done by corrupt government that sniff out power and ensure they keep it which is human greed.
India now is the big thing in economics overtaking China. Investors have been moving things in India from China.
They moved into India and then moved out.
Its seems as people cant determine where china is going but as someone who has watched it change personally in the last 5 years it seems as though alot of small businesses are losing while bigger ones are just borrowing more . People dont seem to be spending and honestly 3 years ago it was as if there was a business everywhere but it feels so quite now. Ive personally already have work for 3 different companies in china thar have gone bankrupt.. but i mean i literally used to live next to incomplete housing 😂😂. I was talking to a Chinese friend yesterday about the government over spending. They dont get it . Talking about convince and stuff . Like we were talking about the trains and high speed train . Although he knew that the high-speed trains wasted money , he couldn't understand how they were useless when there are already trains to take u literally anywhere in china already . Many Chinese people cant afford the nice things in chinw on average...
Yo guizhou is poor af . I actually felt bad there
Same, I was talking with people from America, I explained that they are killing Middle eastern by millions, They did not believe me. Then I tell them About how Ukraine lost war with Russia, Then He told me that I am brainwashed by CCP, Bot. Funny things is I never get money from them.. Then My western friend Is trying to convince me that You should never built anything without profit Like HSR, Unlike Interstate Highway which mighty USA built. Talking about convincing westerner
property is NOT PRODUCTIVE CAPITAL
its HOW the asian tigers were crippled with american speculative loans.
Where do you get financial data? PRC or other reliable sources? PRC data is notoriously inflated or even fabricated. Demographics are another major concern. Seniors don't consume as much stuff as younger people.
in China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities
By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities
That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers.
Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate.
Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control
Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018
Why is their Central Government doing this?
Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen.
Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need
In China
Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, heath, education and even marriage prospects
Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China
Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
Unlike here in the west where we are going the other direction
Believe Chinese economic data at your peril. ALL of it.
Italy has lots of problems and now wants to create more problems by leaving BRI
what problems will they create?
No one can ascertain who the stupidest is. But one can always spot "the stupider."
They are screwed
@@jaydee6268Italy will fail
BRI will fade-away in a year or two.🙂
China’s streets and shops seems so peaceful compared to Western Europe!
Because peacefuls are treated with peace!
The images of China in this video look good. I wish China had freedom and I wish China would allow its citizens to have access and be able to post to UA-cam so we could see everything there is to see.
其实在中国只要花一点精力就可以做到访问UA-cam和发帖，对它的封锁并不是那么严格。疫情后去中国旅游的UA-cam创作者很多，可以在他们的视频里看到更多中国现在的样子。
Don’t invest in China Home because China has low birth rate. Invest in location that has high growing population. Some US city with declining population, the investor lose lots of money.
Internationally the money is moving to S.E. Asia and India. Too bad for China and the current pandemic .
Chinese real estate prices are insane right now because everyone dumps all their family's wealth into housing. It's not healthy and it shouldn't last.
in China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities
By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities
That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers.
Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate.
Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control
Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018
Why is their Central Government doing this?
Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen.
Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need
In China
Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, heath, education and even marriage prospects
Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China
Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
Unlike here in the west where we are going the other direction
Good sharing
Do an analysis of M1 M2 speed
this guy sounds so clueless. Maybe Xi should hire him....or maybe he already has.
🤣
CCP will give him a very high social score.
Just because he didn't say "China will collapse."
You know fuck all about China, you genuinely think they are about to enter a famine. He has actually done his research. Go back to Fortnite kid.
Bro your completely wrong, property prices in China will NEVER go up!, China has over built enough apartments to house 1 billion people, Chinas population is in total collapse, these apartments are not rented out producing zero income, they are also terrible quality, the majority of these "apartments" essentially have zero value. they only ever have value if the property price is going up therefore they are only for speculation they are not property assets at all. it would be like doubling the house stock in Europe, have 50% vacant, reduce the build quality by 90% and then claim that somehow the value of property in Europe will increase in a few years what a JOKE!!!
>therefore they are only for speculation
wow, so like everywhere else? Lmao. Hedge funds are buying homes like crazy in the US. Real estate is fucked everywhere buddy.
Source ???
where are you getting your information?
Man…..you are really zoned out.
You have been reading way too much western propaganda.
I just came back from China…..business is OK and slow.
In Malaysia, Thailand, etc…we are all about the same.
Rental in KL is lower than pre Covid.
Life goes on.
Source: trust me bro 🥺👉👈
when can we see recovery 2025/26
There's always someone that looks at a turd and sees fertilizer.
- Belt and Road Initiative failing hard, several projects scrapped, stopped, or countries failing to repay loan to china
- Regions Revenues depending on land sales slipped to oblivion, most regions in china became extremely indebted, and rescued by smething like 1 trillion rescue loan from central government of china.
- Real estate market like mentioned
- several companies leaving china alltogether
- loss of something like 80% of foreign investment in such a short period
- Logistic restructuring of the world due to covid and previous reliance on china, means more manufacturing is leaving china
- increasingly bad view of china by worldwide citizen and government.
honestly outlook not looking particularly appealing.
The economy is still growing, which shows how this transition is well timed
@@J_X999 "according to official numbers" because let me tell you i know a lot of business owners, several of them closed their factories/businesses, usually as factories are bundled in the same area, they also see most of the competition go down as well.
so the economy is not doing well on the ground, but reported numbers make it look like everything is fine.
when in some areas I know 11 out of 12 factories closed down within a 3-year timeframe (COVID) i doubt China's economy is as peachy as they make it sound.
@@jobslolo7387 "let me tell you, I know several business owners." 🤥
Who let their child create a UA-cam account? Listen pal, I have worked for JPM since 2017 and all our data is independently verifiable. China's economy is growing at 4 to 5 percent this year, and actually, they've just had a surge in consumer spending over Q4, so it'll be higher at this point in time.
No one ever uses "official numbers" like you say. All data you see from JPM, China Beige Book or Bloomberg is independently verifiable.
People use the "China lies about it's data" as an excuse to try and make it the worst possible scenario. They know fuck all about economics.
China property market has presented an unprecedented opportunity with such considerable correction as well as hang seng. These are the best market to trade for long term holding.
Not in real estate as long as we have sane man in charge.
What is China’s real GDP?
It's not dramatically different from what China says.
People who say "China's GDP is 60% smaller than what they say" are just retarded.
It's all independently verifiable. China's GDP isn't as high as they say, but it's not far off.
Why is it so difficult for Westerners to grasp the philosophy of China overbuilding housing? It's meant for people in future generations to use and fill up, not for much or most of the working class of China right now in the present. As their living standards increase, they'll be able to afford the rents and fees of the new big apartments more easily. Maybe China will have more socialist public housing in the future as well. We are looking at the issue of China's housing from a Real Estate point of view not as a necessity for people to live.
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂，Chinese population is reducing by millions every year, it would take 30 years to recovered, imagine it, what would those unoccupied units look like in 30 years 😉
Watched a few of your videos. They are good. Finally subscribed.
There are major flaws in China's economic picture, not the least of which is the reliability of their government economic data on which you and many money managers used for your assessments. When the CCP avoids releasing truly negative data like youth unemployment or are accused of massaging data to align with their economic projections, it's hard to blame investors for avoiding the Chinese market. It's hard to reconcile contradicting data showing GDP growth of 5% despite a collapsing real estate market that accounts for 30% of the GDP, rising unemployment, wage cuts, declining exports, manufacturing and deflationary concerns. Makes you wonder what is really the true GDP growth rate.
China has led 7 of 10 growth industries for decades like EV, Green Energy, this is the big picture. BTW, China has surpassed Japan as the the biggest auto exporter 2023 already(4million exported)
@@stevenhuang4193 And yet somehow it remains the world's biggest polluter, building and relying on more coal plants and its cars are not in major markets or does not compete well against the world's auto leaders. Again, it comes back to the reliability of the government's data.
I used to agree with this perspective. Nevertheless, China stocks have been so beaten up the past two years. Buying a KWEB or KLIP is a low risk high reward situation. I don't think either of those ETFs will get much lower this year. As long as you don't buy individual china stocks, I think long term an investor will be fine.
@@anthonyv.8668 The risk reward may look attractive but remember it took the Nikkei 30 years to recover (last year) to the levels of the early 90s when its bubble popped. There is probably much more excess (government debt at all levels, shadow lending, huge real estate bubble, etc) in the Chinese economy and its policies (vs 1980s Japan) that drove its growth the past 30 years that needs to unwind before it can begin to recover. There will be plenty of head fakes before the Chinese market truly recovers. Its better to be a trader than an investor in the Chinese market.
@@anthonyv.8668 very simple to tell. How much electricity China has produced vs US, we can tell whose number is more reliabe. Yeah, I agree that China Stock market has been dismal. It hits individual investors like us. Also you have to look from the great geopolitical perspective. America, at least Washington politicians have thrown everything to obstruct China - trade war, technology war and finanical trade. so far China has prevailed in trade war, technology. Regarding finanicial trade, may take a bit long. The bottom line is that is China's real industry capacity and quality has kept expanding and moving up. US will fail itself by obstructing China instead of fixing its own problem.ponzi scheme is in the making if an economy is based on shuffling money around.
Good to see Larry visiting Guangzhou to check on the market
china is done so, I have chinese neighbors, they tell me their families are fleeing as they can.
thank you. very informative! Unfortunately from my point of view China is uninvestable. Take a look at what happened to ADR-holders in Russia! The China/Taiwan-conflict is not a big difference to the Russia/Ukraine-conflict. There is substantial risk of a complete (western) ADR-holder (which are no shares but only certificates -> see Russia) whipeout. just my point of view but as i said thank you for the very interesting macro research.
Its funny how the ignorant still thinks china will invade taiwan. China became a world power without a single bullet fired at other countries unlike Britian and America who became world power through colonization and invasion. Do you even know how many China chinese are in Taiwan and Taiwanese people are in China? They have more ties to each other, more like siblings than neighbours. By comparing Ukraine/Russia conflict with China and Taiwan, means you have never been to Taiwan and see how the Taiwanese people there are more pro china than most people outside Taiwan thinks. This means unification will happen naturally over the decades than through aggression.
Unbiased video 👏
No, it isn't very objective and quite misleading. The apartments displayed in the video are not for 95+% of Chinese. I was an expatriate and worked with state-owned enterprises for more than 1 decade. The presenter needs to travel to China more frequently and stay there much longer to get accurate pictures. I have a lot of sympathy for the Chinese under extreme censorship.
Totally agree with you.@@albertchung8263
Taiwan is the ghost at the feast? Needs comment.
This was immesely helpful. Thank you so much for this.
They had good free market policies before 2018, it was like one of the most capitalist countries in the world; makes EU, UK, Canada, and Australia look like socialist s*#%holes. I'm not sure about their future with these new post 2019 socialist policies, though. I know they're moving towards a consumer market, which is good for us small business owners wanting to start a competitive brick & mortar WoFE business there. The VAT and rate tax is still favourable.
The major consumers are spending RMB $5 at food court
Actually I think their policy is amazing. They had a controlled popping of the bubble, followed by total competition with the west on all top end items. Their system makes free market look stupid.
Good objective video . I do think the oversold in Chinese equities are overdone . Also I feel that China is firing all cylinders to get the economy going and it will prevail eventually . The Geo politics of Taiwan is not happening so soon due to the changes to the military and the soft economy
how about you point out one of these 'scalps' or long levels on Chinese tickers BEFORE they make the move instead of post-hoc celebrations?
mchi etf
1 stock portfolio JD
Re-allocating to the real economy sectors such as manufacturing, digital economy and retail
Thanks for the video and another insight into China. Still some ways to go before investing there as the big kahuna has yet to play out which is the situation with Taiwan. China is yet to find a bottom imo. Geo-pol., China +1 reshoring, domestic housing and banking crisis etc have some more to play out. To be watched but not investable as yet imo. Also heard chinese buying gold so that is what I am buying atm !
Less than a month old, and this video definitely aged well… 😂
The drawing was on the wall all along and since 5 years ago. It seems like you were a disbeliever of China market and then successfully picked the worst possible time to enter the China market (and China market related stock).
But can’t blame you, Charlie Munger lost a ton too.
Cut lost before it is too late.
There is no theory in investing which proves stock price always revert to mean.
Once you've spent time in China, outside Beijing, you realise it only only a matter of time before it crashes. Take a look at the madness of Kangbashi...
That’s the only example u can give right? And is it worse than Kensington?
@@iloveHXC4ever My god, you are clueless.
@@bikepacker9850 maybe u should come and see by yourself.
No one stopping u to go to small cities in china.
I’m not gonna say China doesn’t have economic problems right now, but it’s hilarious to see so many people think China is going to crash, we’ve been hearing this for decades.
@@iloveHXC4ever I have seen more Chinese cities than you have. I spent 3 months travelling through China. I've been to probably 30 Chinese cities. Not just the banner cities of Beijing or Shanghai, I went to the filthy polluted cities in the north. The cities where you can't see 1km due to pollution. Where the rivers are dead and choked with trash. I was actually in Wuhan when the virus escaped from one of their badly run labs.
in China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities
By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities
That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers.
Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate.
Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control
Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018
Why is their Central Government doing this?
Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen.
Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need
In China
Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, heath, education and even marriage prospects
Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China
Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
Unlike here in the west where we are going the other direction
Western buisness conglomerates have lost faith in China . Maybe the mojo might come back . The future for foreign private investment in , China , a communist country, is not good . Another important sector you failed to mention is Agriculture.
Living in the US for 40 years, I still dont understand the Economic, Real Estate, and Confidence Crisis. You visiting China once and you understand theirs?
Do you have a CFA?
I have my MBA from Rotman and my CPA but dont have a CFA because i dont need it for life or work. Does not having a level 3 make me less intelligent to analyze?@@davidcao1989
Ty sir
@LarryCheungCFA Thank you for this excellent research report.
What data points are real 😂
Very helpful. I want to invest in Chinese stocks
Wumao.
Be careful investing in Chinese stocks, they have been in a downtrend for a few years now save for the pop in the market after they stop the lockdown. Their market jump for a few months and when the recovery sputtered, they resumed their downward spiral. They are currently nearly their all time lows so you may get a short term dead cat bounce but I don't expect that to last. Go to other You Tube sites that cover China and you will get uncensored info about China that the CCP don't want you to know. Look at China Observer, China Truths,
China Insight and think about whether or not you want to risk your money. Good Luck investing, just be cautious, the global economic conditions continue to deteriorate. Eventually when things hit bottom that will be the time to buy is when everyone is fearful.
@@jamesdallas1493 COPE
in China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities
By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities
That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers.
Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate.
Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control
Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018
Why is their Central Government doing this?
Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen.
Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need
In China
Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, heath, education and even marriage prospects
Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China
Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
Unlike here in the west where we are going the other direction
Such a shallow analysis
Thank for your video I love it.