How to Deter, not Defeat China
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- Опубліковано 11 вер 2024
- America’s role as a guarantor of world peace is in doubt, and China is ramping up pressure on Taiwan, broadcasting an intention to retake the island by force, possibly through a military blockade. But Taiwan’s fate is not sealed. The U.S. Navy remains a powerful force in the Pacific, and Japan is rapidly arming up in response to Chinese aggression. Erik discusses what Taiwan’s new president should do to prepare the country for a possible Chinese invasion, such as establishing a Home Guard that could apply lessons learned from successful military operations of the past in which a smaller country has defeated a larger one.
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#Taiwan #China #Ukraine #Japan #WW3 #USNavy #PLA #PLAN #War #HomeGuard #Russia #RevolutionaryWar #NorthKorea #HIMAR #Drones
I had a West Point professor in a training course I went to some years ago. He shared (so proudly) his paper he submitted to the Naval War College on how China could not possibly do an Air Assault onto Taiwan as they had little NVG or formation flying experience and had no place to refuel. I asked him if he considered the fact that the mission might be a one way trip and that the Chinese Generals may be willing to accept a high attrition rate. He looked at me in utter confusion…
The Taiwan straits from mainland China to Taiwan is only like 65 miles… professor 🤮
@@teambeforeself6839
So ?
A potential amphibious assault with the intent to occupy Taiwan is exponentially more arduous a challenge than Normandy was. If you wish to have a more detailed understanding of it, you should study the estimates of the US military that produced the draft plan for "Operation Causeway." A planned invasion of Taiwan by the US military, which eventually was abandoned, and Taiwan or Formosa at that point had just 100,000 Japanese troops to defend it.
@@AbaddonianG the so is. It is not far, therefore the initial push would have no logistical issues and it would likely be an amphibious assault and an air assault in the gap to push the ability to push the amphibious assault deeper into the country. So again, the so… they (Taiwan) be prepared their battle space for that tactical dilemma.
@@teambeforeself6839
Would have no logistical issues ?
Dude, go do shit you are trained for ... like fighting goatherders or the like .
There's no arguing with ignorance.
@@AbaddonianG the initial push. That why you do an air assault inland to secure a linkup for logistics to refuel, rejock. But hey, discussion of a plan via a text feed… just broad strokes, not like a detailed plan, but thanks for the shots fired in being a Douchebag.
2A in Tiawan 👍👍🇺🇲👍
An advantage for Taiwan is this: China does NOT want to destroy those chip factories; they want to take them over. Thus, Taiwan, yes, must defend them, but China will limit the types of munitions used around them.
Taiwan could build military installations under the chip factories... They will be sanctuaries from enemy fire...
Exactly! No need for Erik to run for public office, the world needs Erik's change-agent revolutionary hands-on "Home Guard" master classes to guide global patriots to defend and be victorious everyone's democratic liberties and prosperity.
That's what Jordan Peterson said it's better to be an influencer than a politician because that's what you're doing then 😊
😂 he's to busy training the chinese
@@michaelt1775 these idiots believe in this con artist. No different from Trump, they would sell their mother if they needed to
I better buy any electronics I need now before supply chains are disrupted.
😂 I keep thinking that too
Yes. TSMC will be controlled by PRC. There will no longer be chip designs coming in from West. The disruption to world trade will be huuuge.
the flag ship of the IJN was Akagi not Kaga but she was present at the attack on Pearl Harbor
Given the US restrictions on advanced chip exports to China and Taiwan's TSMC positioned as the global leader in chip manufacturing, it was foreseeable that this situation would lead to several significant consequences
Vivek called for same strategy in arming the Taiwan citizenry. At the time I think many folks thought he was extremely naive.
I was in 7th ID and they did some training with Japan last year🇯🇵🇺🇲💪
The Switzerland Strategy
Americans think in terms of 4 year increments. The Chinese think in terms of dynasties. We have major internal problems. The Chinese are perfectly fine waiting us out until we diminish culturally, economically and militarily which is happening as we speak
Coming through your border. See Dark Horse podcast, former liberal professor Brett Weinstein went to the border to check them out. He said fighting age males, very hostile. Also Iran is sending people through.
What you fail to mention is that every problem America has , China is also dealing with exponentially worse than American issues. That leaves us with one large looming question. Can they pull this off before demographics makes it beyond difficult to accomplish?
I wish we had that much foresight. We think in terms of quarterly results and ceo bonuses.
Really a much higher tax rate on the rich would help make other values great again. The deficit is killing us and aids china. But if it's a choice between lower taxes for the individual and anything else we'll grab at the money.
The United States of America is the strongest country that's ever existed and we will never fall the United States is just an idea it's bulletproof
Taiwan told China if they attempt any military action that they’re going to take out the three gorge dam.
Just like Russia with Ukraine do we really think China would lose a war on its border. The answer is a HELL NO.
Precisely. Also it's a damn island. I have many opinions in common with Erik but I don't share his optimism about the outcome of a CCP vs Taiwan open conflict. Plus I don't think CCP is ever invading Taiwan they are just too smart for that.
I think Taiwan is capable of defending itself. The only thing that concerns me is "the top down mentality " that Erik mentioned. A rough citizen partisan element could wreak havoc on the untested PLA soldiers.
Taiwan is different than Ukraine they will fight until every single person dies and China knows this Taiwan is the real China from 5000 years ago @@stevechilcoat2353
@@stevechilcoat2353 If the PLA soldier is untested , is it fair to call a Taiwanese partisan untested too? I mean that goes both ways. These dudes aren't Iraqis or Afghans with a harsh mentality and hardened war culture that's decades old, driven by religious conviction and an engrained hatred of the adversary. These are going to be ratted out by CCP friendly citizens and their networks will crumble within short.Taiwan is not radical enough to not just bend the knee. I find it utterly optimistic to think Taiwanese people are so in love with their pseudo freedom to suffer a war
Unfortunately, we, on our borders are losing to the cartels and none of our leaders appear to care.
Always looking forward to a new episode and Mr Princes knowledge
We're on pace for two episodes a week. Stay tuned.
Erik Prince is great
If you could not understand why PLA did not take Kinmen, especially in 1958 which is more of a collaboration between Mao and Chiang Kai-shek, you would not be able to have a winnable strategy cross the Taiwan strait.
The South Koreans wouldn't get involved with any Chinese moves against Taiwan. They fear the PRC too much plus the North Korean threat keeps them focused on the North.
More than likely the North Koreans would do some sort of maneuvering to keep the south occupied at the same time China acts
Masterclass for sure 🔥
Another good one EP hope to see you in the next administration
China said they're going to olay the long game. Dont expect a Taiwan invasion especially when China is struggling.
If Trump gets elected, he should make Erik Prince Secretary of Defense.
Erik Prince for SECDEF!
The idea that everything just got more expensive for anyone to buy from Russia is the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard ever. A pair of Nikes might be good for buying a brand new Scud Missile plus launcher right now!
Congratulation. Very good
Prince for Sec. of State 💪🤘🙏
The "Quad" (US, Aus, Japan, India) seems to be the main answer to China. If China Blocades Taiwan, we should block Chinese shipping it Malacca, Indian Ocean, Gulf of Oman, and Gulf of Aden. The real question is, as always, political will.
that's a farce. India always does its own thing, the Aussies are phantom allies and Japan is a wildcard.
Hopefully the Australians get their heads out of the sand and ramp up military spending too.
Sarah Payne, who teaches strategy at the Naval War College, points out that in Vietnam we won every battle, lost the war, but won the struggle. Communism collapsed and the US and our allies won.... at least for a few decades.
Now Communism is reasserting itself in China, allied with (however you characterize Putin's regime) in Russia.
If China goes for Taiwan, it may very well win that campaign and pierce the first island chain. But there is a second island chain, a bunch of suddenly terrified neighboring nations, massive sanctions, corporations and investors fleeing China... it would be a pyrrhic victory, if they even "win". They are likely to do as well as Russia is doing in Ukraine. Ie., a long grinding and very expensive slog.
... and with that i head into town to get a new smart phone. I have a feeling modern electronics may soon be very scarce.
You know that there's a PLA planner watching this, taking notes and setting up a Xi branded CrossFit franchise with rifle ranges and fpv drove courses across Taiwan. PLA home guard on its way!! 😅
Hey soldier, do you know who’s in command here? Yeah.
Plus China has no significant combat experience, so it may not go as smoothly if they have to deal with an insurgent or asymmetric threat from Taiwan 🇹🇼
When was the last time Taiwan got into war? China has been fighting since Korea war and the Vietnam American war.
@@user-yw4rx6kb3r sustained combat operations? No, with your logic, we are still at war with N Korea… as it’s an Armistice agreement.
@@teambeforeself6839 you're talking about Taiwan right? You didn't mention anything about America in your previous comment.
@@user-yw4rx6kb3r I’m talking about China and the potential of them assaulting Taiwan.
Blackwater Eric Prince for President. Best regards from Papua New Guinea 🇵🇬
Taiwan has reserves upwards of 3 million personnel. Will the Philippines get involved?
Your next video should be how Cuba can defeat the USA.
Very entertaining!
If you want to rely on Japan being a proxy for America, you would be sorely disappointed. Japan is a much inferior force nowadays compared to China. It did defeat the Qing navy and the Nationalist army back when China was a dirt poor agrarian country, but the PLA never lost to either US or the Soviet Union, even when China couldn’t make its own artillery guns, let alone planes. Today, at least near China’s coast, China does not have any peer forces in other countries. The only reason China doesn’t launch a war is exactly because war has huge cost and wining a war without fighting is the ultimate victory. This guy you interviewed had a superficial understanding of the situation
He needs the Monday night football teleastrator !! John madden style
Break it down lay it straight keep speaking truth sir!
Can we buy the new phones in Australia?
Estimates for losses on an island of Japan assault to capture was 500k in ww2 to US. Truman decided?
Why in war would you ever announce your winning strategy ?
Warships off Cuba? When’s the last time that happened? How did that turn out? Wondering if US being pressed on all sides by an alliance? China views this in a fifty year lens. We view it every four to eight. What do you expect. Is this sustainable?
China imports the vast majority of its oil from the Middle East. The straits of Malacca would be pretty easy to block tankers from passing through. Even the Malaysian navy could do it. I don't see how China could sustain a naval blockade of Taiwan. Furthermore, their trade with the US and EU could take a hit and I don't see the CCP wanting to deal with massive social unrest due to mass layoffs..
No, they are getting it overland from Russia. They have been prepping for a long time.
I was told Russia is a gas station with nukes. Is the Malaysian military going to blockade 3,645 miles of China’s boarder with Russia?
@@TheOraReport well that's true but its not enough
I probably defer to you but checking because industry experts I've spoken haven't been aware of massive new oil and gas rigs. The East Route pipeline is quite impressive. Putin's PHD more or less was in oil and gas- LNG.
Russia and China prepped for decades for a world war. China is very cocky which worries me because Russia and China are a package deal like NATO, you could say.
My research led me to monitor pipelines. I have an interview on my channel I just haven't had enough time to get to. October 7 hijacked things, so I publish most as articles. I defer to industry experts but I'm shocked how little they know about Russia, China, India (refineries, they hate China but will act in their own interests), and how they have worked together with BRICS to secure energy outside of US and Western interests. Malaysia may be the strategic card. I see Chinese complaining about Malaysia in geopolitics groups of late
OPEC Plus appears seamlessly and both are aggressively dedollarizing. It's war on the dollar. Putin and Xi are very close friends who make a big deal out of public displays which set red flags off for me.
South Africa ships coal to Germany in staggering quantities to make up the loss of Nord. Coal....to Germany. I am worried for the West generally. China historically will take blows. A couple of million for the next empire isn't out of keeping.
To my eye, Putin and Xi are prepping for the next hundred years, at least, and have been tight longer than anyone knows. Caspian Sea, Arctic Route? I sincerely hope you are right. Correct me on any aspect, I place value on learning. You know the terrain.
There are currently massive layoffs in China right now with even more coming, they are in a recession and it doesn’t seem to be slowing down anytime soon. They also have failed multiple tests of their military systems in reliability. A lot of their naval power can’t use their radar to full effect due to power requirements, which is crazy but makes sense due to how they operate. However, will they push forward knowing it will never be easier for them to take Taiwan, especially with the Russo-Ukraine conflict. India is moving towards a blue water navy as well which threatens their supply routes and their 100 year ports in the Indian Ocean. The biggest worry is if China learns from and heavily incorporates Russian EW as it has shown to be extremely effective, both in cost and tactically, against high tech western weapon systems and munitions. The other thing is Russia saying they will use nuclear weapons if their sovereignty is threatened. Would highly recommend watching the video of Putin saying this as he looks dead serious saying there will be no winners in a nuclear war but he will do it to protect Russia.
it’s coming :(
🙏🏼
🤠
Love Erik's insight and really like Off Leash. I know Erik likes Kyle Bass and in this video, Kyle Bass makes an even more detailed list of the things China is doing to prepare for war and also list August as one of the more likely months for the attack. Good Stuff, thanks!
Kyle Bass: China Prepares for War: A Timeline. ua-cam.com/video/98kMSEkPiLo/v-deo.html
United For America 🫡
Mark those shoes are 17%
Hello bub!
Erik gives China WAY too much credit in terms of their capabilities. Yes, China SAYS they have missiles that can do this, that, and the other, but that doesn't mean they will work as advertised. China's invasion plan has to go PERFECTLY in order for it to win. They've never even fought a war since 1979. The chances of them being able to carry out such a massively complicated plan that they've never attempted, AND the chances that Taiwan is unable to disrupt that plan, are approximately nil.
China is timing it to when the US gets entangled with Russia.
We think differently than China though, if a a million losses are needed than so be it. They also have plans, such as the 1000+ remote controlled mig 21s to use as decoys and unmanned kamikazes to soak up air defense. China also builds all of its civilian ferries to specs of being able to carry their MBT
The Chinese navy has never fought a war.
1:58 to the best of my knowledge the US the UK and Australia signed and agreement roughly a year ago. Unfortunately the British forces are dire. However I think there is a few subs that are up to scratch. As well as several other elements of the navy.
Would be surprised if special forces haven't been there for some time.
If I recall Erik had said on the Shawn Ryan show quite some time ago there would only be twice that China could attempt an amphibious attack.
Again Erik had gave a possible solution, which given almost everything else he has said has been correct. I think people should really pull their head out of their arse and listen to him before things are too late.
The boa constricter analogy to China is very apt.
Especially due to Europe and US. Going back to the super dollars quite some time ago.
12:40 the Obama bidden administration is most likely actually better not say but probably giving the Chinese grants for gender assignment.
To best of my knowledge the credit system and 15 minute cities etc if blood is donated it increases someones credit score. This has been going on for a while. Hence blood has been stocked, as well as I believe wheat etc.
I don't think people realise how important this is. China could literally turn the lights outs on the US.
I believe I remember hearing that basically if it can be seen it can be destroyed. But some older tech in particular tomahawks are still viable.
Excellent show as always
Erik please run for President...you are our only chance!
Will Japan Come too Taiwan's defense?
With china russia iran and north Korea pretty much best friends now the United States needs to let Germany and japan operate military industries at full capability
Of Course, they are very close allies and have already stated they would get militarily involved.
The homeguard has limited prospects for holding out. Look at Israel's relentlessness pursuing hamas. Ccp will pursue any resistance the same. What Prince suggests is unlikely to happen as he points out the top down organization of society in Taiwan. This ends up being an ad for the second amendment when a direct pitch for 2A would not get much attention. That’s ok but false hope for Taiwan. I just don't get how China would give up once they start nor would they be intimidated. A blockade could go on a long time. What are Taiwan's food supplies? How much disruption of power infrastructure could they take? But the smugness complacency and lack 9f imagination in usa is pathetic. Besides Sun Tsu there is also the game of go as a model. Ccp used it as a war model during its early struggles.
Erik I'm Your New Stalker. Perkins and Boykins said it's alright since you know Jesus so I won't be able to affect you 😭😭
Drew Doberman
BS , I paid $499. down over 2 months ago and don't have a bill for the balance or the phone, very disappointed.
I love the interviews, I am NOT a troll but maybe Erik needs to check who's in charge. 😢
Imagine an ex SEAL holding forth on strategy .
That's what the US has come down to .
Mr Prince should be the president of the USA 🇺🇸
Eric prince? I thought he was hanging out at Mara lago these days?