Peter Zeihan on China, Apple, and Europe
Вставка
- Опубліковано 29 сер 2024
- Who has the upper hand when Apple’s CEO walks into a room with the President of the People’s Republic of China?
Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical strategist and the author of “The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization.” Bill Mann caught up with Zeihan to discuss:
- Why Apple is diversifying production away from China - What an aging population means for the United States economy - Why de-dollarization is less likely than many think
Company discussed: APPL
Host: Bill Mann Guest: Peter Zeihan Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd
![Lp. Сердце Вселенной #1 НАЧАЛО ПУТЕШЕСТВИЯ [Новый сезон] • Майнкрафт](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/380Q7gLWGvk/mqdefault.jpg)
Thankyou for putting the date of the interview with Peter. As you obviously know ,many people repost old interviews and portray them as resent ones. And I hate people that waste my time!
I think that is UA-cam and not the channel. And UA-cam does not know the date of the interview. But I agree.
BTW, I think Zeihan could get many of these UA-cam channels that hijack his interviews taken off, but he doesn't since they are basically are promoting his brand for free....
@@headsofhiphop It is annoying. I was pointing out the date provided is by UA-cam and not the channel. I this that is misleading. I do not not like old conversations masquerading as current discussions. This was not a current discussion, so the date provided as posted was misleading.
If you like seeing dates on show cards then JUST WAIT until you see the rest of our shows!!!!!
I hate it too. The Hill's show Rising does this all the time,, and I wind up starting to watch an episode and see that I already watched it a week ago.
Peter is a one of the most informed speakers in today’s world. The raspy over caffeinated interviewer is hard to take seriously.
I wanted to share a similar comment. The frequency and intensity of laughing outbursts is distracting and imho takes away from his interviewing skill. Great responses to the questions proposed though!
Peter Zeihan!!
Yes!!! Can never get enough of PZ!
try weed.
I love tuning in to the latest Peter Zeihan interview to find out if children are just expensive pets, expensive furniture, walking/talking inconveniences, or cheap sources of migraines.
🤣
Like when he said Russia was losing to Ukraine 10 to 1??...after that it became hard to listen to anything he says. I mean, its ok to be wrong from time to time but that was just ridiculous.
@@jonusjonus9271 Did he say that, though? Or are you just pulling that out of your Putin???
@@jonusjonus9271 No no no, thats not what he said, he said (he's stated this many, many times) that in order for Ukraine to win, they need to be able to kill Russian soldiers 10 to 1. In one video, he said they are, at best 4 or 5 to 1, which isnt nearly enough.
Exactly Ukraine is doing extremely well with what they have. But they are not doing well enough to throw Russia out within a decade. If nothing changes, Putin will keep control of the long term.
Thanks for including the date of this interview prominently. 👍
Peter's soooo.....trustable, right out of the box. His voice, delivery, confidence, a certain something. It makes me almost not want to trust him. He mashes my GenX buttons, bit he gets through them because so much of what he says is sensible and meshes with other voices i trust and what i understand myself about demographics and politics and economics.
This guy is just a propaganda tool for US state department. He may be right on many things but he views are conflicted. Besides most of what he says is beyond his expertise, it’s literally just some dude’s views.
NO, I GUESS YOU KNOW BETTER, PETER GOES TO THESE COUNTRIES TO SEE WHAT IS HAPPENING, DID YOU? ALL THE FINANCE CHANNELS TALK ABOUT CHINA ALL THE TIME AND SAY THE SAME THING,
@@domcizek yes, I have been to all the countries Peter refers to and many more. You are right to say that other finance channels say the same things, well of course they do, "the west" is engaged in a strategic conflict with China, and propaganda is part of that conflict and people like Peter are active participants in that conflict. FYI, China has it's own "Peter Zeihans" and they also feed their own narrative. as they say, the first casualty of war is the truth, and make no mistake we are at a state of war.
Zeihan is worth listening to.
Just for entertainment
for sleeping kids its
he doesn't talk about the past. He talks about the future.
I read all four of Peter's books. Highly recommended. He doesn't always get it right...but he's always interesting....and going back to his first book (2014) it's amazing just how accurate many of his predictions have been.
Wrong perspective. You say "he isn't always right." Baloney. He almost always gets it right, and he is not your lukewarm "interesting." Zeihan is fascinating, and as a youtuber he is a must-watch global insider. He's a supreme data cruncher, and mines information from in-the-know professionals all over the international scene.
@@user-xo8mr4hf4r I gave Peter a compliment and “highly recommended” his books……and you attack me for not being enthusiastic enough in my praise? Weird.
what brainwashed dude you must be...
@@TrendyStoneYes, you must be a zealot. You can’t just be a big fan or admirer
@@TrendyStone Yes! You must gobble hook, line and sinker! Its now the New American way - no thinking for yourself. Just fandom and drone type following. You will be assimilated!
Thank you Peter for good over view about Geopolitics, world history and economy.
Zeihan is not always right, but he is always entertaining.
No he just repeats himself word for word
So what is REALLY happening in Xhina then?
Still waiting for China to have a civilizational collapse
@@dlk3904 yep, he repeats this concept every year on his every single talks.
@@dlk3904 If Peter is right, China will deflate over time, kind of like Japan did with out the "civilization ending collapse" Recede with negative economic growth. May happen so slowly, only sound bites on the news over time.
Good interview. Mary Long: Peter pronounces his last name like “Zion.”
Zeihan is a legend and opened my mind in ways I never imagined. I don’t always agree with you, good sir, but your perspective is unmatched
I like that, "unmatched". Maybe we'll see a game " The Legend of Zeihan"
Remember the Great Depression? High School history class said that a major cause was that industry was overbuilt and was too big to downsize. The mammoth factories in China remind me of those high school lessons.
China is literally the production factory for the globe and no one is remotely close to replacing them any time soon at scale. So unless you think the world will implode (always a possibility) then those mammoth factories can only proliferate.
I trust George Friedman’s assessment of China and global politics over Mr. Zeihan’s.
A few years ago, and it may have been around 2005, I was listening to NPR reporting from France. The reporter was African-American. She said she spoke fluent French, but would deliberately make some mistakes. The reason was when she spoke it fluently she was treated poorly because she was seen as black French and never leaving. While with mistakes she was seen as a tourist.
Interviewer needs a new profession..Peter is always entertaining
"they lose their manufacturing..." yeah...except for that "patriot" Jamie Dimon who said on Tuesday that JP Morgan Chase would be there for China no matter what... Maybe rethink that whole "corporate citizenship" thing. My gut tells me profits over principles for many of those so-called American corporations...
Who is the best critic of zeihan on UA-cam? I would like to hear the other side
Nathan Rich
THE OTHER SIDE OF WHAT? THERE IS NO "OTHER SIDE" CHINA IS DOOMED, THEIR BIRTH RATE IS WAY DOWN AND CAN NOT RECOVER, THEY WILL HAVE ONE HALF OF THE POPULATION OF THE USA IN THE FURURE
“There are two types of investment advisors: the type that don’t know anything; and the type that don’t know they don’t know.” Dr. Ed Thorp.
How has apple not automated their assembly? Of all the companies they should have been on top of this.
because those decisions would have had to have started 10-20 yrs ago when chinese labor was pennies compared to robots. but it is surprising that such a responsible and conservative company as Apple didn't see this years before some dummies like us did.
It assumes that Apple do not make mistakes, over 75% of its product range has failed, it's lucky some stuck by mostly over hype!?!
Apple's assembly isn't Apple's. It's Foxconn's and others. This put the facility capital investment - a whopper - on others. Apple put its money in software and design (and marketing).
I read Zeihan's books and like them very much. I agree that he does go hyperbole on some of his points, but his claim on China leadership is right on the spot. The history of China is full of stories about absolute power concentrated in one guy/gal (emperor/empress) with no checks and balance. That guy/gal started to make some stupid decision and the whole country goes down hill. You probably heard about the name of those infamous Chinese leaders, from the first emperor (the guy who burned books) to Zang Guang (of Sui Dynasty), to Empress Cixi, to Mao of modern time. We are seeing that history being repeated with China leadership today. I feel for the people of China.
Peter says he doesn't give investment advice but he absolutely did when he said last year that fertilizer was going to be in scarcity because of the war. Anyone who put money into fertilizer stocks promptly lost it.
He also said in the short term the US will escape the shortage compared to some other countries. Also said that there is about a year backlog and that once the backlog is used up then hard times will hit. So, this needs to be considered along the the health of the different companies, etc. So, alot of his prognastications are more the canary in the coal mine warnings.
well, that's not exactly fair. he is only a sector analyst, he's not a financial advisor or fortune teller. everything out of his mouth is his prediction on the future. if you take it all as fact, well, you are in for a lot of trouble financially. his language is also exaggerated and if you know this before listening to him, you can adjust his predictions to your own needs.
@@michaelreynolds5778 YEAH. History tells us that humans are supremely inventive and adaptive. He discounts this in his “crisis” forecasts. He shames my quest to find the contrarian case, eg, Europe, oil, energy crisis and Russian oil to freeze.
@@ScottWengel Peter and his kind are nothing but good story tellers....They make money from selling books and paid appearances by writing arguments that connect dots splashed with a little credibility by the use of a little history. Basically anyone listening to him might as well buy the lottery ticket and likely have a better chance of wining than investing in anything he says.
he also sells books. and conferences. The new snake oil industry, geopolitics influencer.
I was a follower of Peter until his dire predictions about Russian pipe lines freezing and big failure. I realise he suffers from the great American illness exceptionalism. Lets see how his predictions pan out.
If India wasn't buying all that cheap oil, the shipments would be piling up. The Saudis are not amused, but oh well sucks to be them, right?
Oh. Now it is an “Illness.” No. You cannot understand history, nor can you understand America, without grasping American exceptionalism. Tocqueville to Seymour Martin Lipset, ditch that Zinn, the cartoonist. Then you will know.
WELL, RUSSIA HAS ALREADY LOST 200 THOUSAND YOUNG MEN, SO MANY WOMEN NOW WILL NOT HAVE BABIES AND ALREADY THEIR OVERALL BIRTH WAS GOING DOWN, THAT IS WHY THEY ARE STEALING THE UKRAINIAN CHILDREN
I will admit, I normally use my Ziehan as my worst case scenario, because according to Peter Europe and China should’ve imploded around 9 months ago 😂. I always say never underestimate the ability for politicians to kick the can down the road.
China’s corruption like Russia’s corruption
The only thing you can absolutely trust from Zeihan is his analysis of demographics and supply lines; every time he goes into the more political aspect of his talks, that's when he's playing it a bit fast and loose to me. Increasingly, I'm getting the sense from how he speaks and how he phrases certain things that he's not actually giving his own opinion, but his interpretation of what the people who pay him want to hear or believe; after all, Zeihan makes his money from presentations and other speaking events like this one. When you consider who's signing the checks, and where their personal sensibilities are, as a salesman it behooves you to pretend as though YOUR sensibilities lie in the same domain.
Like, he'll play along with the prevailing narrative that Trump's an idiot and a tyrant, but then he'll go and admit that one of the single greatest pieces of legislation that got passed was the NAFTA v2.0 that was one of Trump's signature accomplishments. Well, you can't play it both ways, and Zeihan's smart enough to know that, but he has to claim it so that he can stay in the future patron's good graces.
Thus, when Zeihan says that China's critically underpopulated in the generation coming up and coming into power now as the Boomer generation retires, you can trust that; when Zeihan says that the CCP won't exist a decade from now... that's a bit more iffy, because communist regimes may be bad at governing a nation in a prosperous fashion, but boy howdy can they maintain a death grip on power.
The problem is the countries dont implode or go up in smoke, but economically fade or recede over time. Like a deflating balloon as demographics takes it toll.
Peter zeihan will say ANYTHING including exaggerating and lie to his point. The guy has poor records of. Making up bullshit as he go.
Peter zeihan the new chicken little sky is falling type of lies and point. The guy will say ANYTHING to sell more book and get new speaking invitations. Oy oy.
It’s so Awsome to have someone who is an expert on everything. 😂
Geopolitics isn't everything mate
@@orangechicken5479 its for chickens
One statistic that I recently came across in the WSJ was that the CCP has been underreporting the amount of GDP is being spent on the military. Remains to be seen whether that money was well spent.
Its always refreshing to get the opinions from.....the CIA
haha. probably
If you read the NY Times, Washington Post, or watch any of the Corporate Media eq CNN, MSNBC, ABC, etc, you get CIA talking points daily.
Ummm ,that thought occurred to me as well...
He is likely on CIA payroll.
😂
I'm not convinced China will collapse,
But I can no longer dismiss the possibility thanks to PZ.
Sorry, but from insight experience the "boom town" China IS collapsing now. Everyone with any chance to do it is converting the RMB into hard currencies as fast as possible. The real estate market is going down the tubes...
WELL, DEMOGRAPHICS ARE THE MAIN REASON, NOBODY IN CHINA IS HAVING BABIES, WHICH IS THE FUTURE WORKFORCE AND NOBODY WANTS TO IMMIGRATE THERE, AMERICA HAS THE SAME PROBLEM, BUT DUE TO IMMIGRATION WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH LABOR TO STAFF THE FACTORIES, AND LOWER GROWTH WILL CONTINUE, BUT GROWTH NON THE LESS
@keanphenglim5179 look everyone, I found an real old-fashioned Communist!
Really tho you should know more than anyone that the greatest fear of the CCP was they would grow old before growing rich. Well here we are. They would kill for 5% growth now.
I see absolutely no sign of China's demise so clearly none of Peter's predictions can be expected.
He doesn't understand the vitality and capacity for innovation of the Chinese. They have a homegrown energy behemoth like Tesla in BYD and the renewable economy is mostly in their hands. BYD is a big deal.
Peter is cashing in on a desire for clients that everything is OK.
That the US will bounce back and it's exceptionalism will be reaffirmed.
As for how he talks about how the Chinese government operates it's clear he knows nothing about how it operates from the nonsense he spouts.
I call it whistling by the graveyard..
If you see no signs of China's demise you are simply not looking.
Put your money where your mouth is, invest in the Chinese stock and put all your saving in China see how well it goes, did you even know people can't even get their money out from the bank all kind of restrictions? CHINA is extremely good on organ harvesting and killing their's own people, that is the fact.
I honestly think its you/china that are "whistling past the graveyard"...Its not just PZ pointing out the foundations of sand that they have built on...many voices...all saying the same thing .China is Doomed ,and we will watch it on the net
China has minimal capacity for innovation. All their technology has been stolen from the west. They are good at copying and refining however.
I love Peter Zeihnan. i wonder how he chooses what podcasts to go on. He went on Rogan who is #1. This podcast has 1.82k subscribers though.
Ya its kind of weird what channels you see him on here at youtube.. but the motley fool is not an unknown commodity either.
Im still hoping a few UA-cam channels get an interview, China Uncensored would be a really interesting one considering what they report on, since Zeihan has been a contrarian in regards to china for so long despite so many promoting it as the next global superpower.
Excellent question!
go marry him
A Question/Request: Peter, I am a faithful listener, and I have heard you say several times that you have issues with the Trump foreign policy concerning trade and the fact that the Biden administration has not modified them and, in some ways, reinforced them. Would you please use one of your videos to explain your "issues" with the policies and how you would suggest that they be changed? Thanks!
Very interesting
I have to say a well done analysis of media. But the last three that he said were basically unbiased I’ve read them, and they change a little bit more to the left, and probably what he is indicating, but for the most part he is correct.
No one has been even half as right as Peter in their predictions over the past decade. No one. If you follow Peter and invest wisely, you are going to make a lot of money.
Its true.
@Non Bias Beast I don't care about inconsequential details. Never did. I only look at the big picture. Peter predicted back in 2014 that Globalization will end. Eurasia will be torn by wars. By 2040 only US will be standing and USD will be the ONLY global currency. We are on track. So instead of wasting your time with unnecessary details, ask yourself how best to invest and make money in a world falling apart.
@Non Bias Beast Exactly. I like Pete and his ideas, and I think he articulates them particularly well. His interviews, lectures and videos are educational, but there's a definite purpose to the narrative he paints. There's a definite spin on every pass he throws. If you can't pick up on it, you need to pay more attention and should be asking yourself more questions. Some folks don't seem to understand that Peter might not be betting on the same horse that he's making the race out to be. In face, he's dropped some pretty clear hints/clues he's not.
Bernie sanders has
@@atanumaulik7093 your comment is idiotic and utilizes a circular logic. You say zeihan was right in 2014 when he predicted globalization will end. It's 2023 and we're basically fighting ww3 and it's remained the same or gotten stronger. You then tell him not to worry because "it will happen". So you are giving him credit for predicting something that hasn't happened yet. I get it, it must be hard to hear yourself with your head up your own ass, as your boy zeihan has demonstrated himself.
Peter Z sent me and now I'm subbed
Hmm. Normally Motley Fool is the Jim Cramer of online investment advice.
Our regulators; ripe roaring angry; Barney Frank ; Dennis O'Leary; bring back the guillotine. We need regional banks, but not banks cooking the books to dump connected start ups on the IPO market
Vietnam is also mercurial. I had no trouble getting a VISA 5 years ago, but couldn't get one last year. And it wasn't just me.
I'm hoping we won't have to pull out of Vietnam 20 years from now.
China is turning from Taiwan & now looking a Manchuria Russia. All that water looks good & it's traditional Chinese land.
And no one is going to stop them from sending troops north to take over land which has the energy commodities that they need.
Xi may well be waiting until Russia has spent its weapons and men in Ukraine. He can then take over the north unopposed. No need for sabre rattling to ensure their maritime access is safe. They can put Taiwan on the back burner and do business as usual with the rest of the world
Also please do a video on who Blew up
Lebanon
What will be the effects of the China collapse?
@keanphenglim5179,
Time will tell. You have good points. I think the people of China will far outlast the PRC.
This too shall pass.
@MotleyFoolPodcasts - Great interview with Peter, and I have read all his books. I ave also subd' but please can you tell me were you got your copy of the Japanese poster from. I had a copy on A4 and that was courtsey of a Mark Blyth podcast but I have since then lost it. From what I recall it was a diagram put together by a Bank of Japan employee. I don't mind buying a copy.
I'll see if I can find something. Will probably post it on the show's twitter account if I do...
@@MotleyFoolPodcasts Much obliged. According to Mark Blyth he had to smuggle his one out the office of the Ptime Minister of Japan. But like you he described as probably one one the best diagrams.
At 20:14 he states we're gonna have to be going back to an older system. What does he mean❓
CCP has ended China.
Video starts at 1:09
"The things that get you in trouble, are the things that ain't so" Peter: "Sure". lol
If you're going to quote someone famous you can at the very least get the quote right.
Good to see outfits like the “Fool” plugging in to what PZ is sharing.
Looking forward to more and more of PZ’s data based, hence… high probability outcomes reach fruition.
Maybe “truth telling” will overcome “misinformation” in the near term.
I am holding out hope for my grand kids sake…
Best ya’ll!
Dang son you dumb
Towards the end he mentioned tech workers here will be hurting, and is true that we're losing talent from the recent mass tech layoffs to offshoring.
Around 7:30-8:30 Zeihan describes Chinese ag unable to produced adequately - so, maybe by the time my teenage grandchildren are in their child-bearing years, they'll be telling their kids to clean their plates with the same admonition my parents gave us in the 50's & 60's . . . i.e., "there's kids starving in China"?
Good interview. Please try to find out the correct pronunciation of someone's name* so you can avoid butchering it repeatedly in the intro 😂
*He pronounces it how most people say "Zion"
What’s funny, is more than one person has done that, even when PZ had been on the show before.
Peter is 90% accurate. I often wonder whether his blind spots are intentional or a shortfall in his reading. Ironic that he is a China expert yet does not really see the whole picture of the region. Holistic is not in his lexicon.
90% truth and 10% propaganda, isn't that the definition of disinformation? He does make some glaring errors from time to time.
China
he never been around China, what a load of BS
I have lived in China for decades and PZ is correct for the most part- but remember everything is true in China....somewhere in China at any given time.
Idk what people see in PZ. His takes are fluff at best and even baseless at other times. What are this guys’ credentials even? Almost feels like anyone can just give a take on youtube these days and pass themselves off as some kind of analyst or expert these days..
I'd like to see that Bank of Japan Chart, can you send me a link to it? Thank you!
High consumption levels are essential to economic growth and capitalism. Unfortunately, the only way we can reduce our ecological footprint and save the planet is to reduce our consumption - especially the junk and stuff we don’t really need. We in the developed west are so incredibly wasteful and polluting.
At:about 21:45 Peter says we start combine things like houses in our 20s and 30s and start thinking about retirement around 45. This has not been the case for about 15 years. Millennials and Gen. Z are feeling like they can never buy a house, while Gen X is scrambling to try and retire at a reasonable age. He needs to rethink that model.
These “model” you cite are stereotypes. Who has a real steady job and is a millennial and didn’t buy a near ZIRP home? And who has DOUBLED the retail stock market? Hint: NOT the Boomers.
Yeah I called him on it on his main channel. Average marriage age is now 29 = 28 women 30 men. So nobody in their 20's is getting a house to start a family. Kids move out in mid-40's? Nay, kids move out at age 50+! The goal posts have shifted up by 5 years for marriage, empty nest, even retirement but he continues to quote the 1970's numbers, not the 2020's numbers.
WELL, A LOT OF RETIRED AMERICANS OWN THEIR HOUSE AND SELL AND MOVE TO A CONDO OR APT AND LIVE OFF THEIR HUGE SAVINGS NOW, PLUS THEY NO LONGER BUY THINGS, MAYBE A NEW CAR, BUT THAT IS IT, , WHICH MEANS CONSUMPTION IS GOING DOWN, PLUS THE DECREASING BIRTH RATE IN AMERICA AND AROUND THE WORLD MEANS LESS PRODUCTS SOLD AND LESS PEOPLE NEEDED, ALL LIVING STANDARDS WILL NOW BE GOING DOWN, SO SAVE YOUR MONEY YOU WILL NEED IT
Finally Apple will slow down on it's new releases to let us all catch up😂
Peter is a valuable source. Who is foolish enough today to take religious leaders, politicians or medical professionals words at face value today?
It can be painful but weekly I try to listen speakers that are not my cup of tea. Yes sometimes 26:05 new info forces me to make new decisions. :)
Everyone's opinion or assessment should be taken with healthy skepticism. Determine who you trust, but always make an attempt to verify what they claim.
Can anyone find the 1100 years of interest rates chart?
you'd better fix the typo "APPL" ... looks very very bad
Peter please do a video on who blew up Nord stream
Best first sentence of any guest ever, I bet
PZ is 💯
Everything i see in current economic trends points to a bit of a golden age coming for Mexico.
Zeihan rocks the macroeconomic zeitgeist as always.
The US will literally will not allow that to ever happen. Who do you think is behind every South American dictator, IMF predatory loan and corruption of the local political class? 😵💫
....... or will implode due to criminality and corruption!?!
Even with the cartel's?
That one guy sounds like Alex Jones haha
My advice to investors is simple: "Do not trust anybody." In the short run, the market can be seen as a zero-sum game, where one person's gains come at the expense of another's losses. It is illogical to assume that anyone would genuinely want you to succeed in this competitive landscape. In fact, those who provide investment tips often stand to gain more by giving advice rather than investing in those recommendations themselves.
It is important to approach investment decisions with a healthy level of skepticism and conduct thorough research and analysis. Relying solely on the advice or tips of others can be risky, as their motivations may not align with your own financial goals. Ultimately, taking personal responsibility for your investment choices and making informed decisions based on your own research and understanding will be key to navigating the complex world of investing.
"In the short run, the market can be seen a zero-sum game". What a load of bullshit, sound's like you have been watching too many "Highlander" reruns on television.
@@stevensookram4 SADLY, 1/3 of my retirements. Can't think about it. Learn a lesson and do better next time.
WELL, ESG IS THE WAY TO GO, TRILLIONS NOW WILL BE MADE BY ELECTRIC CARS, TRUCKS, BUSES, ETC, ALSO SOLAR AND WIND AND NUCLEAR AND HYDROGEN, TAKE THE ADVICE OF JOE MANCHIN WHO NOW RECEIVES ONE-HALF MILLION A YEAR OFF OF HIS COAL MINES, ALL THAT PROFIT IS NOW GOING INTO HYDROGEN, SEMIS ALREADY BEING CONVERTED AND ALSO CARS COMING OUT THAT USE HYDROGEN, MANCHIN SEE THE HANDWRITING ON THE WALL AND ITS NOT COAL IN THE NEXT 20 YEARS
Hahaha...No thanks. Not taking advice from the Jim Cramer of geopolitics. Just a tip...Don't go by how confidently he sounds, go by how successful (or not) his predictions are. At the end of the day, it's results that matter.
PLENTY OF SUPPORTING DATA ON THE WEB, TIME TO START LEARNING SOMETHING ABOUT WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE WORLD,
You #KNOW it’s a quality podcast when they mispronounce the name of the guest right off the bat.
#QUALITY
For the millionth time i hear from PZ that Globalization is ending or ended, i dont remember even once he taking care to explain in detail why this happened. Do you remember? I am not talking of any passing reference. A topic as big as this he ought to have given a deep reasoning and date why it is happening or hapenned. Somehow i dont remember him saying anything in detail pn what caused this.
WELL, GLOBALIZATION HAS NOT ENDED, BUT MORE PRODUCTS WILL BE BUILT HERE IN THE USA AND THE OTHER COUNTRIES WILL ALSO DO THE SAME, BUT CERTAIN THINGS ARE REQUIRED FROM OTHER COUNTRIES THAT WE JUST CAN MAKE OR HAVE IN THE USA
yeah in his books
Does Alex Jones work at Motley Fool now? Perhaps just an amazing voice impersonation.
If deglobalization would be against almost everybody's interests, don't you think that countries will find a new order to protect trade lanes IF the US ever pull out?
No. It would be as if parents left their kids at age 12 to raise themselves. The kids have no knowledge, experience nor resources to do so.
I'm under the impression that Mr. Zeihan got all his knowledge about China from youtube.😂😂
WELL, ALL THE FINANCE CHANNELS ARE ALSO TALKING ABOUT CHINA, THEY WILL NEVER RECOVER, YOU COULD ALSO LEARN ABOUT CHINA AND ALL THE OTHER COUNTRIES THAT NOW HAVE LOWER BIRTH RATES AND NOBODY TO WORK IN THE FACTORIES, GERMANY LET IN 1 MILLION MUSLIMS TO WORK, THEY HAD NO CHOICE, IN ORDER TO KEEP THE FACTORIES HUMMING AMERICAN WOMEN ARE NOW ONLY HAVING 1.6 BABIES PER WOMEN, THAT IS NOT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ANY CULTURE, IT MUST BE 2.1 OR HIGHER FOR REPLACEMENT BALUE THE HOUSING MARKET BUILDERS NOW ARE GOING TO THE DAY LABOR SITES IN EACH TOWN TO FIND WORKERS, AND THIS IS HAPPENING ALL OVER THE USA
"A lot of companies have seen the writing on the wall"...Oh NO, NO, NO,...A lot of 'BILLIONAIRES' have seen the writing on the wall. Every post 1980 BILLIONAIRE's fortune was built on the LABOR DIFFERENTIAL (US WAGE - Chinese Wage + Huge shipping costs and delay risk = LABOR DIFFERENTIAL). BILLIONAIRES are super resistant to breaking their linkages to China...we see this with US BILLIONAIRES and EU BILLIONAIRES. The BILLIONAIRE US economy has moved from "minimizing economic risks" to "hiding economic risks" !!
This guy is a broken record and while he has some good points, he simplifies things to the extreme
I would not put much faith from the very fact the protagonists deal it with apparent certainty. We are being taken on a ride by these clowns. Seeing as they love to quote Twain “Sometimes to know with certainty that a particular thing is "true", will actually be the very thing that keeps you from attaining the things you seek to achieve.”
WELL THE FACTS HAVE BEEN IN FOR YEARS, THE BIRTHRATES ARE GOING DOWN IN AMERICA AND THE WORLD, SINCE 1940, NO PEOPLE MEANS NO PEOPLE WORKING IN THE FACTORIES AND NO PRODUCTS FOR YOU TO BUY IF YOU AVE A JOB, ITALY RIGHT NOW IS GIVING AWAY HOUSES AND 80 THOUSAND DOLLARS TO MOVE THERE BECAUSE NOBODY IS HAVING BABIES SO NO PEOPLE TO FILL THEIR FACTORIES IN THE FUTURE, HUNGARY IS PAYING 90 THOUSAND IF YOU WILL HAVE 3 BABIES, SO TAKE NOTE
Wow. Lots of inconvenient truths dropped.
NO, CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL AND THE ONLY PROBLEM IN THE WORLD, BUT FOR THE SHORT TERM, ALL BIRTH RATES ARE GOING DOWN CHIBA IS DOOMED
This zeihan character reminds me of Gordon Chang... Predicting ad nauseam China surely will collapse. Year in year out. 😂😂😂
WELL, IT TAKES TIME, CHINAS ONE CHILD BIRTH ORDER FOR THE LAST 40 YEARS HAS SEALED THEIR FATE, IN THE FUTURE THEY WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH PEOPLE TO WORK IN THE FACTORIES, AND THE FIELDS, FOR FOOD, AND THE BIRTH RATES ARE GOING DOWN ALL OVER THE WORLD, IMMIGRATION IS THE ANSWER FOR AMERICA AND IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW NOBODY WANTS TO MOVE TO CHINA, THEY ARE ALL COMING HERE, SO CHINA IS DOMED AND WILL ONLY HAVE LESS THEN ON HALF THE PEOPLE THAT AMERICA WILL HAVE INN THE FUTURE
Peter Zehain's repeated message is that 'it is all about Women' but political correctness means that he never ever says that!
The Afghans in common with other Muslims continue to shut their women away, which is likely to result in a 'win' in the demographic race.
???
@@sophiachavez3377 China & most of 'the West' including Russia have a 'demographic timebomb' of massively falling population, which means all of the funding calculations or ideas like 'fielding an army' have vastly insufficient younger people to make them viable (our politicians know this).
In order to meet all the financial ambitions of 'a developed society' women need to have far more children than has been the case for decades, apparently the US may just scrape past these problems effecting the rest of 'the West'.
Peter Zeihan predictions have been completely wrong for the last +20 yes 😂
WELL CONDITIONS CHANGE, HE IS RIGHT ON ON THE BIRTH RATE IN ALL THE WORLD, LESS WORKERS, MEANS LESS PEOPLE PAYING TAXES INTO THE SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM, ITS A GOOD THING IMMIGRANTS ARE NOW COMING TO AMERICA FROM ACROSS THE GLOBE, NOT JUST MEXICO,
Don’t worry, soon we have a AI 👘 replacement the worker for good.
The Motley guys sound so clueless. It's scary that they actually pick stocks for a living.
Why do interviewers always talk toooooo much ?
Too bad you two didn’t get to BRICS and de-dollarization.
We are on the doorstep to a major depression.
An Alex Jones voice impersonator? I couldn't even focus on the content. well almost, because Zeihan is too good of a speaker.
I think Peter is on the right track but for different reasons. I think China will be done in the next 10 years due to their economy relying on debt from local governments and that debt capacity maxing out.
The population problem is more of a slower burn and will make the above problem even worse and harder on them though.
I also don't think they will "collapse"... and only bc the people in charge have prepared for this moment with insane ramp up in surveillance and control. Nobody is able to group up to resist.
More likely is a Japan era slowdown.. but worse, since they won't be as wealthy as Japan when the slowdown happened.
Zeihan hasn't focused solely on Demographic collapse. He has specifically cited China's economic crisis as well. He specifically mentioned in this video the "multiple bullets" in the gun pointed at China, meaning incoming major problems that will contribute to the death of the China we know. If you read his books, Zeihan lists numerous reasons for China's coming decline.
@@Seastallion He stresses the demographic collapse man. I didn't say it's the only reason he stated, but he definitely stresses it... not just here, but in most videos, from his own mouth. I love Zeihan and agree with the guy... I just flip the demographic and debt things as the 1 of many disasters to happen first
@Vale Tudo Several factors ongoing. Probably safe to say that two growing trends will combine to cause a noticeable retrenchment initially. The first is the massive local government shadow debt ($23 trillion US is the estimate I've heard recently). Second will be the dislocations to arise from a large scale move of manufacturing to SE Asia, Mexico and the US over the next five years. What will prevent them from recovering from those two will be the shrinkage in the work force population that will continue to gain steam for a long time. It has been 2 Septembers since I first saw Zeihan's demographic diamond of their population. I will never forget that moment. It looked like a tsunami, carved in stone. Mao once said that if a nuclear exchange would result in 300 million deaths, he would be fine with that. Xi has been moving (and, I think talking about) back to Maoism. Draw your own conclusions from that.
@Aaron Aaron agree to disagree. I've always heard him focus on demographics when it comes to China collapsing. Food and energy was an issue with sanctions if they invaded Taiwan.
Look, all the Zeihan zealots coming out to tell me I'm wrong to disagree - chill. I love Zeihan and mostly agree with him, I just change which time bomb will hit first. I could be wrong but I do live in China and follow some specific economists who actually focus on China and are not generalists like Zeihan even says he is.
Check out Michael Pettis, he is the one who convinced me that the debt problem is a more pressing issue than the demographics. He's China specific and very knowledgeable about the ins and outs of this country.
The world has changed and we are transitioning to a bipolar wold with and ever expanding BRICS nations on one side and The US, the EU and other small nations on the opposite end. As long as China remains the factory for most of the world ( no one even close to replacing them at scale), BRICS nations outpacing growth will ensure China remains strong and continues to grow. Add to this that China is leading the way in many of the biggest economic trends for future growth: Space, Communications, Robotics, AI & Autonomous vehicles then it will take a brave soul to think they gonna fail.
And before you point out their demographics well if the AI and autonomous vehicles revolution comes true then having less jobless hungry pissed off young people might just be an advantage to the US and EU's millions on new migrants with large families to feed.
My problem with peters philosophy is it is based on a perpetual growth scenario. I have also noticed the old time philosophy is the same via ww2 everyone overlooks most don't care about huge corporate prophet and less people mean more raw material for half the population it's an upside.
WELL, YOU CANT GET MORE MATERIAL WITH FEWER PEOPLE UNLESS YOU USE ROBOTS, WHICH IS A POSSIBILITY, BUT FEWER PEOPLE MEAN FEWER SOCIAL SEURITY CHECKS FOR THE RETIRED, AND WITH LESS PEOPLE, MEANS LESS CONSUMTION AND MORE LAYOFFS JUST LIKE COVID DID TO THE WORLD
In my opinion, the idea of tech going away is asenine. Sure it might slump, and profit's will decline, for some time, but we're never going back to a place where you don't need chips. We might not make smart fridges, but nobody is going to loose the convenience of remotely controlled heating, internet, and microchips.
Furthermore, to have that, you need and absolute insane amount of supporting industries. I think it will THRIVE.
The party-like-its-1999 ipo environment is going away. Only good companies (not shit like Uber & Lyft) will ipo going forward. The concept of Unicorns or Decacorns will disappear.
WELL, WITH LESS BIRTHS COMES LESS PEOPLE TO WORK IN THE CHIP FACTORIES, THIS IS A PROBLEM ALL OVER THE WORLD, ON ENOUGH BIRTHS TO SUSTAIN ANY CULTURE,
So if we assume PZ is right about China, is SEA the next big growth story? Or Mexico or where?
If I had to say, I'd guess india. Remains to be seen if Modi can behave
According to PZ; SE Asia, Mexico, Texas.
@@lukerees281 Which begs the question why, after more than 70yrs of freedom and democracy, does it lag China?
THE GROWTH IS RIGHT IN FRONT OF YOU EVERYDAY, ELECTRIC CARS, SOLAR WIND NUCLEAR AND HYDROGEN, LITHIUM AND COBOT AND COPPER STOCKS ALL ESG STOCKS
Great work
Zeyhan?
BS we never invested in it; we off-shored and hollowed out the working class for forty ffing years!!! Kind of a big deal, and you correctly point out we're reshoring as fast as we can. I suspect you don't make a big deal out of it because you're a consultant and need the speaking engagements but also the industry contacts to get the hard data, and the soft, anecdotal, knowledge
Are children the future investment against inflation?🤔
I credit my current success as an investor to my experience with Motley Fool. Initially, I subscribed to their services, considering them to be brilliant in their stock recommendations. However, in 2021, despite the overall market performing well, most of the stocks I invested in based on their recommendations ended up declining. It was then that I realized I needed to take matters into my own hands and deepen my understanding of finance.
I decided to enroll in a finance class at Yale and dedicated myself to rigorous study. Countless hours were spent poring over financial concepts, analyzing market trends, and honing my investment strategies. Through this intense commitment, I have been able to achieve favorable results.
Since July 2022, my investment positions have experienced a growth of 22%. This outcome is a testament to the hard work and knowledge I have gained through my own efforts, demonstrating the importance of self-education and personal involvement in the investment process.
Do opposite of Motley Fool and profit.
it could just be random luck due to the timing when you took your class. You won't know if you're competent until 2030.
@@dgillies5420
I dedicated over 4 hours daily, weekend ALL DAY, to meticulously go through all the materials. I achieved a flawless score on every assignment/quiz until one day when I received a 10% deduction. I presented a compelling argument to the TA and he acknowledged its validity. However, he refused to restore my marks, claiming it wasn't the answer assigned to him by the prof. It felt like a ridiculous situation, unworthy of my time and effort. Dealing with a team of “Gomer Pyles”like that, lacking competence, was not worth my attention. I made the decision to withdraw from the course. The TA tried reaching out to me, but I believed in the principle of "live and let live." I didn't want to disrupt their emotional security, so I chose to simply walk away.
@@dgillies5420 I just revisited my original message. It was misleading. Yale didn’t help me at all. This is how good or how bad I have become now. I admit Warren is successful. But I do not know if it was “LUCK” or “SKILLS”. This is why …
The past four decades in the stock market have predominantly been characterized by an upward trend (artificially low interest, QE, etc). During this period, Warren Buffett's net worth has grown from $200 million to $110 billion, which means that 99.8% of his wealth was accumulated during these prosperous times. Luck or skills?
While Buffett is known for advocating value investing, it is true that some of his investments have deviated significantly from that principle. Additionally, he emphasizes the importance of staying within one's competency level, which can be interpreted as a reluctance to LEARN.
In 1986, Apple had already revolutionized the personal computer industry with innovations like the ImageWriter, fonts, and the mouse. In 2005, Steve Jobs was acknowledged for his contributions by Stanford, where he delivered a commencement speech (a MUST listen). At that time, Apple's stock was trading at $1.50. It took Buffett another decade to join the Apple bandwagon when the stock has already reached $28. While he did achieve impressive returns with Apple, multiplying his investment sevenfold, he did miss out on the opportunity to gain a 130-fold return from 2005 onwards. In fact, someone with even moderate foresight could have earned a 500-fold return. Critically evaluating these circumstances, one might argue that such significant missed opportunities would warrant serious consideration of replacing Buffett.
Fast Forward - his 13F filing revealed that two of his top five "buy" were Bank of America and Capital One. Personally, I have reservations about that choice. However, I do agree with his investment in Occidental Oil. What concerns me is that nearly 50% of his massive portfolio is allocated to Apple. It seems risky to concentrate such a significant portion in just one of two baskets. Additionally, considering the rapid advancements Apple's Mac II and Image Writer made such groundbreaking impact, one would expect Buffett to have invested in the tech much earlier than 2016. It raises questions as to why he didn't seize more opportunities in that space.
LUCK? Or SKILLS?
Peter must’ve missed the news that AI is on the rise. This is essentially capital that will replace labor. There will be considerable investment, moving into the GPT space to produce specially models that will replace the jobs that are normally filled by skilled administrators or specialists.
The problem is that AI and robots are not consumers other than the occasional repair part. In addition to production you need consumption. With falling population there is less overall consumption.
Agree would be good to see this built into his future thesis. So much is dependent on who wins the AI race. Personally I don’t see China cracking it however.
He hasn't. He just doesn't believe it'll be enough to push the needle in any significant way in regards to his predictions.
@Chris Redich you miss the major point with fewer people you have less consumption, your economy eventually shrinks because of less consumption and you have fewer people working to pay into the system for an aging population. AI won’t fix those things.
AI has not usable utility, and yes I'm in the biz.Even if you find a way to make money from it, are you going to end the world with a program hosted on Windoz? They can't even make an OS, cellphone, browser or search engine.
A lot of adjtives and very few facts. Anyone wants to listen to this has already agreed with him before they come in.
Is Trump a host in this interview?
Yeah the intimidated warmongers who weaponized the payment and STILL FAILED. Hegemony of a JOKER
ZY-un Peter ZY-un
Zeihan is super confident in his bullshi like a car salesman. Anyone can make predictions but that's how u know he's full of shi!
WELL, YU DONT KNOW JUST WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE WORLD, TIME TO LEARN SOMETHING